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GBP/USD will likely simply track EUR/GBP and make its way slowly back to 1.30 – SocGen
302677 March 31, 2023 21:02 FXStreet Market News
Calmer times for Sterling. Economists at Société Générale expect GBP/USD to track EUR/GBP and move gradually higher toward 1.30.
EUR/GBP’s underlying trend remains upwards, slowly
“Since the start of November, Sterling has tracked five-year yield differentials, with a narrowing in the UK-German spread of nearly 110 bps in November-January taking EUR/GBP from 0.86 to almost 0.90.”
“Unless yield differentials narrow significantly from here, we may well find that EUR/GBP becomes dull for a while, trading at 0.87-0.92 over the coming months. Against that backdrop, GBP/USD will likely simply track EUR/GBP and make its way slowly back to 1.30.”
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Mexico Jobless Rate s.a down to 2.8% in February from previous 2.9%
302676 March 31, 2023 20:56 FXStreet Market News
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If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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US Dollar clings to daily gains, eyes on US inflation data
302675 March 31, 2023 20:56 FXStreet Market News
- US Dollar stays resilient against its rivals as ahead of PCE inflation data.
- EUR/USD bullish bias stays intact in the near term.
- Quarter-end flows could impact the USD’s valuation ahead of the weekend.
The US Dollar (USD) started the new week under bearish pressure as easing fears over a global financial crisis allowed investors to move toward risk-sensitive assets. After having closed the previous two weeks in negative territory, the US Dollar Index continued to push lower and came within a touching distance of 102.00 before staging a modest rebound early Friday. Renewed expectations about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) pausing its tightening cycle at the upcoming meeting also put additional weight on the USD shoulders. On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. PCE inflation figures could significantly impact the USD performance against its major rivals as the first quarter comes to an end.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar rebounds ahead of key US data
- Annual Core PCE Price Index is forecast to hold steady at 4.7% in February.
- Previewing the upcoming PCE inflation data, “if the Core PCE remained elevated in February, it would be bad news for the Fed. FOMC members would be in a complex spot battling inflation (with higher interest rates) while facing a crisis in the banking,” said FXStreet Analyst Matias Salord.
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Thursday that it revised the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter to 2.6% from 2.7% in the previous estimate.
- Brazil and China have reportedly reached an agreement to ditch the US Dollar as an intermediary in trade transactions.
- US stock index futures trade flat early Friday. On Thursday, Wall Street’s main indexes closed in positive territory.
- The US Department of Labor’s weekly data revealed that Initial Jobless Claims rose by 7,000 to 198,000 in the week ending March 25.
- The Conference Board’s monthly data showed on Tuesday that the Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly in March while the one-year inflation expectation component edged slightly higher to 6.3%.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been moving sideways between 3.5% and 3.6% following Monday’s decisive rebound.
- While speaking on Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson refrained from sharing his view about whether the Fed should continue raising interest rates.
- China’s Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the US on Wednesday.
- FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell reportedly told the Republican Study Committee on Wednesday that they intend to raise the policy rate one more time before the end of the year.
- CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 45% possibility that the Fed will leave its policy rate unchanged in May.
- Inflation in Germany, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 7.4% on a yearly basis from 8.7% in February but came in above the market expectation of 7.3%. In the Eurozone, the annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) ticked up to 5.7% in March from 5.6% in February.
- FDIC issued a statement over the weekend announcing that First Citizens BancShares Inc bought all the loans and deposits of SVB.
Technical analysis: US Dollar could struggle to outperform Euro
EUR/USD bullish bias stays intact in the near term with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holding near 60. This technical reading also suggests that the pair has more room on the upside before turning overbought. Additionally, the pair continues to trade above the 50-day Simple Moving Averages after having tested it toward the end of the previous week.
1.0900 (psychological level, static level) aligns as key technical level for EUR/USD. If the pair manages to stabilize above that level, it could target 1.1000 (end-point of the latest uptrend) and 1.1035 (multi-month high set in early February).
On the downside, 1.0800 (psychological level) could be seen as interim support ahead of 1.0730 (50-day SMA, 20-day SMA) and 1.0650/60, where the 100-day SMA and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend is located. A daily close below the latter could be seen as a significant bearish development and open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0460 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).
What is the US Dollar Index (DXY)?
The US Dollar Index, also known as DXY or USDX, is a benchmark index that was established by the US Federal Reserve in 1973. DXY is widely used as a tool measuring the US Dollar’s value in global markets. The index is calculated by measuring the US Dollar’s performance against a basket of six foreign currencies, the Euro, the Japanese Yen (JPY), Swedish Krona (SEK), the British Pound (GBP), the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
With 57.6%, the Euro has the biggest weight in the index followed by the JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), and CHF (3.6%). Hence, a sharp decline in the EUR/USD pair could help the US Dollar Index rise even if the US Dollar weakens against some of the other currencies in the basket.
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Binance Coin price at risk of dropping 10% after BNB case reveals intent to evade US Law
302673 March 31, 2023 20:51 FXStreet Market News
- Binance Coin price has not joined the breakout trades in altcoins and cryptocurrencies on Thursday.
- BNB is still under pressure from the CFTC regulatory lawsuit.
- The Wall Street Journal revealed that Binance offered perks to evade US Law.
Binance Coin (BNB) price is at risk of dropping sharply yet again as some more details came out on the back of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) lawsuit against Binance. Evidence is very clear that there was an intentional strategy to evade US law, CFTC Chair Rostin Benham said on Bloomberg Television. This opens up a very large exposure for Binance to large fines, sanctions and possibly even a ban.
Binance Coin sees accusations mounting as sell-off risk grows
Binance Coin price flirted with the green ascending trend line earlier this morning in the ASIA PAC session after the Wall Street Journal printed the story on the allegations and proof of evidence. As a broker, Binance has been allegedly helping clients to circumvent the US rules and laws when it comes to trading cryptocurrencies as a US citizen. The CFTC case is being added to the pile of cases that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and federal prosecutors recently launched against BNB.
BNB will be stuck in courts and court rulings for several months and possibly years to come, costing millions in fees for lawyers and possible fines and penalties. Expect this to have a negative replication for BNB price with a drop of nearly 10% as the first leg lower. That means that $300 can no longer be maintained, and price action needs to reside near $290 at the 200-day Simple Moving Average as support for now until further details get communicated.
BNB/USD 4H-chart
As these litigations can take months or even years, price action could continue and only react when there is an outcome at hand. This opens room for BNB to jump back up toward that red descending trend line. Expect a breakout to be difficult, but a swing toward $345 is possible if it materializes.
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Polkadot price bound to drop back below $6 as Lido halts staking program on DOT, Kusama by August
302671 March 31, 2023 20:51 FXStreet Market News
- Polkadot price set to tank over 10% as MixBytes confirms in blogpost end of staking service for DOT and Kusama.
- DOT faces backslash on the back of this news.
- Expect DOT to tank below $6 with $5.74 as the best support nearby.
Polkadot (DOT) price is receiving a big blow from MixBytes, the developer of the decentralized finance staking service Lido. In a blog post it said it would suspend its staking program in Polkadot (DOT) and Kusama (KSM) by August 1. In the statement, the developer said that data and growth did not meet the business case expectations to sustain investments longer.
Lido shifting from Polkadot to Ethereum leaves DOT bulls hanging out to dry
Polkadot price sees risk even increasing of a cash exodus as MixBytes went on by saying in its blog post that occasional inefficiencies and bottlenecks have been proven too big of a challenge. Rather the Ethereum network looks to become the one to replace both DOT and KSM. This means that quite a bit of supply of DOT will hit the market between now and August 1.
DOT will have bears gearing up to quickly run price action into the ground on this. Although there is still plenty of time between now and August 1, the headline will be priced in quite quickly. This means that DOT will say goodbye to $6 and start trading near $5.74, although there is a risk of dripping even lower toward $5.31.
DOT/USD 4H-chart
With additional supply coming in, this opens up room for DOT bulls to buy additionally into the price action. As always, the first move will be negative, as bulls can buy the additional volume at a small discount near $5.90 around the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Expect a quick turnaround as that additional volume in bulls’ wallets will see DOT spiraling higher toward $6.70.
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US dollar stumbles after PCE, gold nears $2000
302670 March 31, 2023 20:49 Forexlive Latest News Market News
US February core PCE inflation ran at 4.6%, which is a tad lower than the economists’ consensus of 4.7% and a sign of easing inflation pressures. For more of the past two years, inflation numbers have overshot estimates, catching the Federal Reserve offguard. Now the numbers are fading as improved supply chains and higher interest rates throttle pricing.
The month-over-month increase in headline and core inflation was 0.3%, which is still above target in annualized terms but were both cut in half from the previous month, in a sign that they’re moving in the right direction.
The lower inflation numbers will diminish the Fed’s urgency to hike, even as banking conditions improve. Fed fund futures imply a 55% chance of a 25 bps hike at the upcoming May 3 meeting but the market expects that to be the top, with the potential for cuts late in the year.
With that, the US dollar fell on the headlines. USD/JPY slumped to 132.90 from 133.25 while the euro rose to 1.0890 from 1.0875.
USDJPY intraday
Gold is also cheering the turn from the Fed. It rose $10 on the headline to a high of $1987. Earlier this month, it rose as high as $2009 on speculation the Fed would have to cut rates to stem the banking crisis but it’s mostly held those gains despite the better banking tone. It was at $1820 before the banking troubles.
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) registered at 5%, below expectations (5.3%) in February
302669 March 31, 2023 20:49 FXStreet Market News
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If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in January: Actual (0.5%)
302668 March 31, 2023 20:49 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.4%) in February
302667 March 31, 2023 20:45 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Personal Income (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (0.3%)
302666 March 31, 2023 20:45 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (4.7%) in February: Actual (4.6%)
302665 March 31, 2023 20:40 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in February
302664 March 31, 2023 20:40 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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