Articles

• Prior +0.5%
• GDP +1.1% vs +1.2% y/y expected
• Prior +0.9%

The headline reading meets estimates as the French economy grew slightly in the final quarter of last year. Overall, French GDP expanded by 0.9% in 2025 and that’s a slight decline from the 1.1% growth seen in 2024.

Looking at the breakdown for the year, household consumption posted a modest growth of 0.4% on the year with the final quarter coming in strong as well with a 0.3% jump. Total government expenditure was up 1.7% on the year with imports up 2.9% while exports were up 1.4% in terms of overall growth contributions.

In terms of actual percentage contributions, internal demand excluding inventory changes accounted for 0.7% of GDP growth. Meanwhile, inventory changes itself also accounted for 0.7%. The offsetting line was net foreign trade, which subtracted 0.5% from GDP.

Here’s the full breakdown:

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Market players will be watching precious metals closely as we look to wrap up January trading. That will not only have an impact in the commodities space but there will be broader spillovers to the likes of the dollar and risk sentiment as well. As we see the profit-taking and volatility swings accelerate, it could cause a bit of a ruckus and mess in the day ahead.

The dollar is already holding firmer across the board now with gold dropping by 3% to around $5,200 and silver down some 4% to $110 levels at the moment. It’s wild to think that even with a $500 drop in gold in a day, it isn’t exactly a “big deal” for markets like what we saw yesterday. But now, the nerves are starting to creep in and that is resulting in broader reverberations elsewhere.

Looking to European trading, we will have plenty of data points to work through but none of which will be all too impactful. The ECB is to remain on the sidelines indefinitely, awaiting a shift in the fundamental narrative especially on the German economy.

Today, we will be getting the latest inflation snapshot for Germany. However, it’s not likely to offer much unless the numbers surprise with a heavy deviation. But even then, it’s just one data point and not something that will get the ECB to rush off their seats.

• 0630 GMT – France Q4 preliminary GDP figures
• 0700 GMT – Germany December import price index
• 0800 GMT – Spain Q4 preliminary GDP figures
• 0800 GMT – Spain January preliminary CPI figures
• 0855 GMT – Germany January unemployment change, rate
• 0900 GMT – Germany Q4 preliminary GDP figures
• 0900 GMT – Germany January state CPI readings
• 0900 GMT – Italy Q4 preliminary GDP figures
• 0900 GMT – UK December mortgage approvals, credit data
• 1000 GMT – Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP figures
• 1300 GMT – Germany January preliminary CPI figures

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Morgan Stanley sticks with Nvidia, says underperformance is overblown
• Trump warns UK over China ties as Starmer hails diplomatic reset
• USD higher everywhere. Crypto particularly hard hit. BTC/USD lows circa $81K.
• London Metal Exchange resumed trading at 0200 GMT after a one-hour delay
• RBA tipped to hike to 3.85% in February after inflation surprise – poll
• WSJ reported Trump and Senate Democrats struck a shutdown-avoidance deal
• Trump signals talks with Iran amid rising military tensions
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9678 (vs. estimate at 6.9459)
• UK business confidence slips as global economic worries intensify
• USD has jumped on rumors Kevin Warsh will be new Fed Chair, announcement due Friday
• Japan’s factory output edged down in December, nat as bad as expected
• Tokyo inflation cools in January, reducing BoJ rate hike urgency. Weight on yen.
• Latest Trump tantrum, threatens 50% aircraft tariff on Canada over jet certification fight
• Japan inflation – January Tokyo CPI Headline 1.5% y/y (prior 2%)
• US Treasury says yuan undervalued, urges China to allow appreciation
• US shutdown risk eases as Senate splits DHS funding, adopts stopgap
• UBS ramps up gold targets, flags $7,200 bull case as demand surges
• NZ consumer confidence hits four-year high in January as retail gauge turns positive
• Apple beats Q1 estimates as iPhone revenue jumps and China surprises
• Sandisk delivered a major beat on both earnings and revenue, stock price soars
• Visa beats Q1 estimates as cross-border volumes rise 12%
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold goes for a wild ride

At a glance:

• The Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, lifting the USD on hawkish assumptions.

• Tokyo CPI cooled in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ to hike again; USD/JPY rose more on Warsh news than Japan data.

• Apple forecast a sharp rebound in March-quarter revenue, led by iPhone demand and China.

• New Zealand consumer confidence hit a four-year high in January.

• Metals were mildly softer, while a Panama court ruling raised fresh risks for Chinese port ownership.

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, with Donald Trump expected to announce his decision on Friday morning. Warsh is understood to be on a four-person shortlist and visited the White House on Thursday, though sources cautioned that the decision is not final until Trump makes a formal announcement. Other candidates under consideration include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock.

The US dollar strengthened broadly on the report, with markets treating Warsh as a hawkish appointment. That assumption is being questioned in some quarters. While Warsh was clearly hawkish prior to aligning himself with Trump, it is less obvious that a Trump-appointed Fed chair would be encouraged to maintain that stance. The question for markets is why Trump would choose a genuinely hawkish central banker.

In Japan, Tokyo inflation data for January came in softer than expected. Headline CPI slowed to 1.5% y/y from 2.0%, while core inflation eased to 2.0% from 2.3%. Underlying measures also cooled, reducing the urgency for further Bank of Japan rate hikes following December’s move to a 30-year high. Labour market conditions remained firm, but USD/JPY gained far more on the Warsh news than on the CPI release.

Elsewhere, Apple forecast revenue growth of up to 16% for the March quarter, comfortably ahead of expectations, driven by strong iPhone demand and a rebound in China. In New Zealand, ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose to its highest level since August 2021.

Metals were mildly pressured, with spot gold and silver lower and CME copper futures softer. Trading on the London Metal Exchange was briefly delayed by technical issues. Finally, a Panama court voided port contracts held by CK Hutchison, raising fresh concerns over Chinese infrastructure ownership.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +0.03%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -1.78%
• Shanghai
  Composite -1.19%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.67%

Bitcoin continue to post lower lows:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump warned Britain against deepening China ties just as Starmer hailed progress from a rare UK prime ministerial visit to Beijing.

Summary:

• President Donald Trump warned Britain against deepening economic ties with China as Prime Minister Keir Starmer pursued a reset in relations during a high-profile visit to Beijing.

• Starmer held extended talks with Xi Jinping, becoming the first UK prime minister to visit China since 2018.

• The UK leader highlighted gains on market access, visa-free travel and reduced whisky tariffs, framing engagement as pragmatic rather than ideological.

• Trump’s comments reflect broader unease among US allies amid tariff threats and geopolitical unpredictability.

• The episode underscores growing pressure on Western leaders to balance US relations with economic engagement in China.

Tensions between Washington and its allies over China policy were brought into sharp focus after US President Donald Trump warned Britain against closer economic engagement with Beijing, even as Prime Minister Keir Starmer promoted a reset in UK–China relations during a landmark visit.

Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday for talks lasting around three hours, marking the first visit by a British prime minister since 2018. The discussions ranged from trade and investment to cultural links, with Starmer calling for a “more sophisticated relationship” built on improved market access, lower tariffs and new investment opportunities. He also highlighted agreements on visa-free travel and reduced whisky tariffs as tangible and symbolic steps forward.

Addressing the UK–China Business Forum, Starmer described his meetings with Xi as “very warm” and said the engagement delivered “just the level of progress that we hoped for,” arguing Britain has much to offer the world’s second-largest economy. For Starmer’s Labour government, which has struggled to generate the growth it promised, strengthening ties with China has become a key economic priority.

In Washington, however, Trump struck a starkly different tone. Asked about Britain’s outreach to Beijing, he warned that closer ties were “very dangerous,” offering no further detail. The remarks came amid a period of heightened uncertainty for US allies, following Trump’s threats of tariffs, his criticism of NATO partners and his controversial comments on Greenland.

Starmer has sought to position Britain as capable of maintaining strong relations with both Washington and Beijing. He stressed that the UK’s ties with the United States — spanning defence, intelligence and trade — remain among its closest, and insisted Britain would not be forced to choose between the two powers. He pointed to Trump’s planned visit to Britain later this year, during which major US investment commitments are expected to be highlighted.

Other Western leaders are also stepping up engagement with China, including Emmanuel Macron, who visited late last year, and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, who is expected to travel soon. Yet US officials remain sceptical. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned that exporting to China remains difficult, casting doubt on whether Britain’s efforts will deliver meaningful economic returns.

The episode highlights a widening strategic dilemma for US allies: how to pursue economic opportunity in China while managing political and security ties with an increasingly unpredictable Washington.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WSJ (gated) reported Trump and Senate Democrats struck a shutdown-avoidance deal that funds most agencies long-term while giving DHS a two-week stopgap to extend immigration talks.

Summary

• The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump and Senate Democrats say they’ve reached a deal to avert a partial US government shutdown by splitting off Homeland Security funding.

• The plan would fast-track five full-year appropriations bills and fund DHS with a two-week continuing resolution, extending talks on immigration enforcement.

• The agreement comes after Democrats balked at a DHS bill amid fallout from the Minneapolis killing of Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents.

• Even with a deal, timing risk remains: if the House must return to vote, there is still a chance of a short lapse before funding is finalised.

• The outcome reduces broad shutdown risk near-term, but keeps DHS/ICE policy disputes live into the next deadline window.

The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump and Senate Democrats say they have reached an agreement designed to avert a partial US government shutdown by decoupling Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from the rest of the federal budget package.

Under the proposed framework, the Senate would move quickly on five of six spending bills that have already cleared the House, funding most federal agencies through the remainder of the fiscal year. DHS would be handled separately via a two-week continuing resolution, effectively buying time for negotiations over contentious immigration enforcement provisions and funding for agencies such as ICE and Border Patrol.

Trump publicly endorsed the approach, urging lawmakers in both parties to support the package. The political logic is straightforward: it reduces the risk that a dispute focused on immigration policy triggers a wider shutdown across unrelated departments and services. It also narrows the negotiation battlefield to DHS and immigration enforcement, rather than holding the entire budget hostage.

The push to split DHS funding gathered momentum after Senate Democrats resisted advancing a DHS bill, with internal party pressure intensifying in the aftermath of the Minneapolis killing of Alex Pretti, a case that has generated national controversy and competing official narratives. Reuters reported that a preliminary CBP review raised questions about earlier claims made by Trump administration officials, while video evidence and reporting have complicated the initial account of events.

In practical terms, a two-week DHS stopgap keeps Homeland Security funded while negotiators attempt to reach compromises on enforcement restrictions and oversight demands. However, it also sets up another near-term deadline that can reintroduce brinkmanship if talks stall. The timing of votes matters as well: even if Senate action is swift, the House may need to return to Washington to pass a modified package, creating a risk of a brief funding lapse if deadlines collide with travel and scheduling constraints.

For markets, the near-term takeaway is modestly supportive: the deal lowers the probability of broad federal disruption, while keeping political headline risk concentrated around DHS and immigration policy into the next negotiating window.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK business confidence dipped in January as global economic worries deepened, even as firms grew more optimistic about their own activity.

Summary:

• UK business confidence eased in January, reflecting a sharp deterioration in views on the global economy.

• Lloyds’ business barometer slipped to +44%, driven by a one-year low in economic optimism.

• Firms remained more upbeat about their own activity, with expectations rising to a three-month high.

• Hiring intentions and wage growth expectations strengthened, pointing to resilience at the firm level.

• Political and global uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment despite pockets of domestic momentum.

British business confidence weakened in January as concerns about the wider global economy intensified, even as firms reported improving expectations for their own activity, according to the latest survey from Lloyds.

Lloyds’ monthly Business Barometer slipped to a net balance of +44% in January, down from +47% in December. The decline was driven by a sharp deterioration in companies’ views on the economic outlook, with net economic optimism falling 14 points to +28%, its lowest level in a year. The survey suggests that while businesses remain relatively confident in their own operations, broader macroeconomic uncertainty is increasingly weighing on sentiment.

The survey period, which ran from January 5 to January 20, coincided with renewed geopolitical and trade uncertainty. During that time, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Britain and other European countries that opposed his stance on Greenland, a development that likely contributed to the darker assessment of global conditions.

In contrast, expectations for firms’ own trading prospects improved markedly. Businesses’ outlook for their own activity rose seven points to +59%, the strongest reading in three months. Lloyds said this firm-level resilience mirrors signals from other recent indicators, including January’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index, which also pointed to a modest pickup in activity at the start of the year.

Labour market intentions showed signs of renewed strength. Hiring plans improved for the first time in three months, while expectations for wage growth also increased. Just over one in five firms said they expect salaries to rise by 4% or more, the highest proportion in five months, suggesting ongoing pressures in parts of the labour market despite softer headline confidence.

Lloyds noted that overall business confidence remains stronger than a year ago and well above its long-run average of +30%. However, it has fallen back from mid-year highs, when sentiment was buoyed by easing inflation concerns. Since then, uncertainty surrounding potential tax rises in the annual budget delivered by finance minister Rachel Reeves has weighed on confidence.

According to Lloyds, the divergence between firm-level optimism and wider economic caution highlights businesses’ ability to manage external risks while continuing to focus on growth opportunities. For policymakers and markets, the data points to a UK economy that remains resilient at the micro level but increasingly sensitive to global and political headwinds.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

More data from Japan (below). I’ll have more to come on this separately.

Earlier:

• Tokyo inflation cools in January, reducing BoJ rate hike urgency. Weight on yen.

Japan manufacturers see January output +9.3% m/m (prev forecast: +8.0%)

• see February output -4.3% m/m

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump threatened to decertify Canadian aircraft and impose a 50% tariff, accusing Canada of unfairly blocking certification of Gulfstream business jets.

Summary:

• President Donald Trump accused Canada of unfairly blocking certification of Gulfstream jets.

• Trump said the US would decertify Canadian-made aircraft, including Bombardier models, in response.

• He threatened a 50% tariff on all aircraft sold into the US from Canada if the issue is not resolved.

• The dispute centres on certification approvals rather than safety findings.

• The move raises fresh trade and political risk for the North American aerospace sector.

US President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with Canada after accusing Ottawa of unfairly blocking the certification of US-made Gulfstream business jets, threatening retaliatory measures that could significantly disrupt the North American aircraft market.

In a statement, Trump said Canada had “wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly refused” to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700 and 800 aircraft, which he described as among the most advanced business jets ever produced. He argued that Canada’s certification process effectively prohibits the sale of Gulfstream aircraft in the Canadian market, disadvantaging a “great American company.”

In response, Trump said the US would move to decertify Canadian-made aircraft, including Bombardier Global Express jets, until Gulfstream models are fully certified in Canada. He also warned that if the situation is not “immediately corrected,” the US would impose a 50% tariff on all aircraft sold into the United States from Canada.

The dispute centres on regulatory certification rather than safety concerns, but it risks spilling into a broader trade confrontation. Certification approvals are critical for aircraft manufacturers, determining whether planes can be sold, operated, or registered in foreign markets. Any disruption can have major implications for deliveries, order books and long-term customer relationships.

Canada is home to Bombardier, a major global producer of business jets, while Gulfstream Aerospace is one of the US’s flagship aerospace exporters. A tit-for-tat escalation could therefore affect investment, employment and supply chains on both sides of the border.

The comments also revive memories of past US–Canada trade disputes, including tensions over aerospace subsidies and manufacturing competitiveness. While no immediate policy action has yet been announced, Trump’s remarks signal a willingness to use tariffs and regulatory leverage as negotiating tools.

For markets, the episode adds political and trade uncertainty to an already sensitive sector, with aerospace stocks and cross-border investment potentially vulnerable if the dispute hardens into formal trade restrictions.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Tokyo area CPI data for January 2026.

I’ll have more to come on this separately. For now, though, the dip back in headline and core inflation takes some of the steam out of the Bank of Japan argument to hike rates soon. It doesn’t negate, just dials back a little.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US lawmakers agreed to split DHS funding from other bills and use a two-week stopgap, easing near-term shutdown risks while immigration disputes remain unresolved.

• Senate GOP and Democrats agreed to separate five bipartisan spending bills from DHS funding, easing immediate shutdown risks.

• A two-week continuing resolution (CR) will fund the Department of Homeland Security, buying time for negotiations.

• The deal reflects a White House–Senate Democrat compromise to avoid broader government disruption.

• Immigration and ICE funding disputes are deferred, not resolved.

• Markets see reduced near-term shutdown risk, but policy uncertainty remains elevated.

US lawmakers moved to defuse the threat of a broader government shutdown after Senate Republicans and Democrats reached an agreement to split Department of Homeland Security funding from other must-pass legislation and rely on a short stopgap to keep DHS operating. We had whispers of this yesterday:

• Reports that Trump and Schumer are approaching a possible deal to avert shut down

And then more during US time:

• Trump says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid US government shutdown

Under the deal, negotiators will advance five bipartisan full-year appropriations bills, while replacing the DHS measure with a two-week continuing resolution. The arrangement reflects demands from Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, to prevent immigration funding disputes from triggering a wider shutdown across federal agencies.

Sources said The White House and Senate Democrats clinched the compromise as the funding deadline approached. While the agreement does not deliver the policy changes Democrats have sought on immigration enforcement, it reduces the immediate risk of service disruptions and provides negotiators with additional time to bridge differences.

At the centre of the standoff is funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which has been a recurring flashpoint in budget negotiations. By isolating DHS funding, lawmakers aim to keep the rest of the government running while talks continue on border security and enforcement priorities.

The move follows a familiar Washington pattern: using short-term funding extensions to manage political deadlock, particularly when contentious policy issues intersect with must-pass budget deadlines. Previous shutdown episodes have shown that even brief lapses can disrupt federal operations, delay payments, and weigh on confidence.

For now, the two-week CR lowers the probability of an immediate shutdown and allows Congress to finalise less controversial spending measures. However, with DHS funding still unresolved, lawmakers face renewed pressure to reach a longer-term agreement before the stopgap expires, keeping fiscal and political uncertainty firmly in play.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ consumer confidence hit a four-year high as the key “big ticket purchase” gauge turned positive, but ANZ still sees only “par” growth amid offsetting headwinds and tailwinds.

Summary:

• ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose to 107.2 in January from 101.5, the highest since August 2021.

• The “good time to buy a major household item” gauge moved to +1, turning net positive for the first time in nearly four years — a key signal for retail demand.

• Inflation expectations were steady at 4.6%, still elevated and consistent with ongoing cost-of-living pressure.

• ANZ sees the recovery in H2 last year arriving faster than expected, but expects “par” growth this year as momentum becomes harder to sustain.

• The outlook is framed as headwinds (rates, NZD strength, essentials inflation, election/global uncertainty) versus tailwinds (still-stimulatory rates, healthy balance sheets, stronger business confidence and hiring/investment intent).

New Zealand consumer sentiment strengthened again in January, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rising to 107.2 from 101.5 — its highest reading since August 2021.

A notable detail for markets and retailers was the lift in the survey’s best retail signal: the share of households saying it’s a good time to buy a major household item increased to +1, moving into net positive territory for the first time in almost four years. ANZ argues this improvement adds weight to recent signs that domestic activity firmed sooner than expected in the second half of last year.

Even so, ANZ cautioned that while confidence is now at a multi-year high, it remains only around average when viewed over a longer historical cycle — a meaningful improvement given how depressed sentiment has been in recent years, but not yet a sign of boom-time behaviour.

Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.6%, underscoring that price pressures — particularly in essential items — remain a core constraint on household spending decisions.

Looking ahead, ANZ expects growth to run around “par” this year. The bank suggests the early phase of recovery may have already captured the easier gains, making rapid growth mathematically harder from here. It sees a push-pull backdrop: headwinds from rising interest rates, a firmer New Zealand dollar, elevated necessities inflation, election-related uncertainty, and ongoing global volatility. These are offset by tailwinds including still-supportive monetary conditions, generally sound private-sector balance sheets, and stronger business confidence alongside improved investment and employment intentions.

ANZ concluded that while the housing market remains subdued, the steady lift in confidence should give retailers some optimism that late-2025 momentum can extend into 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.