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The snapshot above is from the investingLive economic data calendar.

• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

Of most interest is the inflation data from Japan. Tokyo area inflation data:

• National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
• Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
• It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
• Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
• Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example

Japan’s inflation story has been unusually persistent by historic standards: consumer prices at the national level have remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2 % target for many months (well, years!), driven by wage growth, a weak yen and ongoing cost pass-through, even as headline inflation has cooled from peaks earlier in the cycle.

The BoJ is on a cautious tightening path after ending decades of ultra-easy policy and raising its key rate to 0.75 % in December. Policymakers are assessing the full impact of that hike, mindful that inflation appears to be moderating but still running above target in key underlying measures, and have emphasised a data-dependent approach to future moves.

Today’s Tokyo CPI readings, including the headline, core and core-core gauges, will be closely watched for signs of continued stickiness in prices. Stronger-than-expected prints would reinforce expectations for further BoJ tightening later in 2026, while softer outcomes would support the central bank’s slow and cautious pacing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The snapshot above is from the investingLive economic data calendar.

• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

Of most interest is the inflation data from Japan. Tokyo area inflation data:

• National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
• Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
• It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
• Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
• Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example

Japan’s inflation story has been unusually persistent by historic standards: consumer prices at the national level have remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2 % target for many months (well, years!), driven by wage growth, a weak yen and ongoing cost pass-through, even as headline inflation has cooled from peaks earlier in the cycle.

The BoJ is on a cautious tightening path after ending decades of ultra-easy policy and raising its key rate to 0.75 % in December. Policymakers are assessing the full impact of that hike, mindful that inflation appears to be moderating but still running above target in key underlying measures, and have emphasised a data-dependent approach to future moves.

Today’s Tokyo CPI readings, including the headline, core and core-core gauges, will be closely watched for signs of continued stickiness in prices. Stronger-than-expected prints would reinforce expectations for further BoJ tightening later in 2026, while softer outcomes would support the central bank’s slow and cautious pacing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US November trade balance -56.8B vs -40.5B expected
• US initial jobless claims 209K vs 205K expected
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4.2% vs 5.4% previously
• Trump says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid US government shutdown
• Trump says Fed chair decision coming next week
• It’s the seventh-worst day in MSFT stock history
• US November factory orders +2.7% vs +1.6% expected
• BOC governor Macklem says there is no easy way to manage uncertainty from Trump policies

Markets:

• Gold flat at $5400
• US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 4.23%
• WTI crude oil up $2.65 to $65.86
• Bitcoin down $5600 to $83,688
• CAD leads, GBP lags
• S&P 500 down 33 points to 6944

It was a crazy day in the gold market as we got a new record at $5575 in Asia followed by an incredible rout in US trading in a swift move to $5100 in about 30 minutes. It wasn’t done there as gold bounced and then slowly formed a base to climbe all the way to $5400 late in the day to finish virtually flat. Silver went on a similarly wild ride.

When gold broke down we also saw a big wave of US dollar buying but that also proved mostly fleeting in volatile trade.

It was no different in stock markets as Meta rose 10% and Microsoft fell by 12% in its seventh-worst day ever. Both the moves followed earnings reports that weren’t all that surprising. The intense volatility across asset classes speaks to leverage and an uncertain market.

Economic data added to the questions as the US trade deficit in November nearly doubled, leading to a rapid drop in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker.

Eyes are on Congres as well for another potential shutdown on the weekend. A vote in the Senate failed today but negotiatins continued and Trump highlighted bipartisan negotiations, saying he didn’t want a shutdown. That’s different rhetoric than in the autumn, when he seemingly wanted a long shutdown.

Earnings after the bell include Apple and Visa.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US November trade balance -56.8B vs -40.5B expected
• US initial jobless claims 209K vs 205K expected
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4.2% vs 5.4% previously
• Trump says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid US government shutdown
• Trump says Fed chair decision coming next week
• It’s the seventh-worst day in MSFT stock history
• US November factory orders +2.7% vs +1.6% expected
• BOC governor Macklem says there is no easy way to manage uncertainty from Trump policies

Markets:

• Gold flat at $5400
• US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 4.23%
• WTI crude oil up $2.65 to $65.86
• Bitcoin down $5600 to $83,688
• CAD leads, GBP lags
• S&P 500 down 33 points to 6944

It was a crazy day in the gold market as we got a new record at $5575 in Asia followed by an incredible rout in US trading in a swift move to $5100 in about 30 minutes. It wasn’t done there as gold bounced and then slowly formed a base to climbe all the way to $5400 late in the day to finish virtually flat. Silver went on a similarly wild ride.

When gold broke down we also saw a big wave of US dollar buying but that also proved mostly fleeting in volatile trade.

It was no different in stock markets as Meta rose 10% and Microsoft fell by 12% in its seventh-worst day ever. Both the moves followed earnings reports that weren’t all that surprising. The intense volatility across asset classes speaks to leverage and an uncertain market.

Economic data added to the questions as the US trade deficit in November nearly doubled, leading to a rapid drop in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker.

Eyes are on Congres as well for another potential shutdown on the weekend. A vote in the Senate failed today but negotiatins continued and Trump highlighted bipartisan negotiations, saying he didn’t want a shutdown. That’s different rhetoric than in the autumn, when he seemingly wanted a long shutdown.

Earnings after the bell include Apple and Visa.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The prior US government shutdown was a disaster and I’m getting the sense that it didn’t poll great with Republicans either because Trump is now changing up his rhetoric. He says he will work in a bipartisan way to avoid a shutdown.

During the last shutdown he wouldn’t even meet with Democrats so this is a different tactic.

Time is short though so we will see what happens. I’d say these odds are far too high but that doesn’t rule out a 2-3 day shutdown, which is fairly inconsequential for the real economy.

This shutdown talk is good for equities and could help lift them off the lows.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Some of the dumbest people in the world have been running around touting the 5.4% forecast from the Atlanta Fed as if it was a real economic number.

Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to throw cold water on it yesterday, highlighting that Q1 GDP was negative and that the US was on track for 2-3% GDP growth this year.

What made the cheerleading particularly preposterous is that it was based on thinned out US economic data due to the US government shutdown. It was also highly leveraged to a one-month improvement in October trade balance.

Guess what? That month-month reversed in November and suddenly the GDP forecast is down to 4.2%.

Now I think it will still be a good quarter but we also need to wait on inventory data. The correlate to lower imports is often inventory drawdowns and that’s often a big drag on GDP forecasts that’s also not (yet) in the GDPNow estimate. Moreover, if we get a December trade balance number like the latest one, we’ll be on a 3-handle.

Here’s the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent
on January 29, down from 5.4 percent on January 26. After this
morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of
Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real
gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 7.1 percent
was more than offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter
personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.2 percent to 3.1 percent
and the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth
from 1.88 percentage points to 0.65 percentage points.

The next update is due Monday.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Washington’s Birthday holiday  on Monday, 16 February, 2026.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

MT4:

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

Forex & Crypto Pairs:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Energy Futures:

Soft Commodities Futures:

Indices Futures:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

Metal Futures:

cTrader:

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +0).

All Forex & Crypto Pairs:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Metal Futures:

Kind regards,

IC Markets Team.

The post Washington’s Birthday Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior was -1.3%
• Ex transport +0.2% vs -0.2% prior

Revisions to November durable goods orders:

• Durable goods +5.3% vs 5.3% prelim
• Non-defense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% vs +0.7% prelim

The factory orders report is good news but much of the gain disappears when you strip out transportation, which is volatile. The downgrade to November non-defense cap goods orders ex air is a mild disappointment.

Background:

The Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders—commonly known as the Factory Orders report—is a comprehensive monthly release from the U.S. Census Bureau. It serves as a vital barometer for the health of the U.S. industrial sector, tracking the dollar value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers.

Unlike the earlier “Advance” Durable Goods report, which only covers items intended to last three years or more (such as cars, appliances, and aircraft), the Factory Orders report provides a complete picture by including non-durable goods. These are fast-moving items like food, chemicals, and textiles. Roughly half of all factory orders are durable goods, making this report essential for understanding total manufacturing demand.

A critical feature of the Factory Orders report is that it contains the final revisions to the durable goods data released approximately one week prior. Because the initial “Advance” report is based on early, incomplete survey samples, it is notoriously volatile. The Factory Orders release incorporates more detailed data and a larger sample size, often leading to significant adjustments in the durable goods figures.

Also released was the wholesale inventories report:

• Inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
• Wholesale sales +1.3% vs -0.4% prior

These numbers are solid and should help GDP, thought today’s weak trade balance report will undoubtedly lead to a (large) downward revision to the Q4 GDP tracker from the Atlanta Fed later today.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

David Tepper is one of the great hedge fund managers and made a killing last year in China stocks.

In November, filings revealed he to a huge stake in appliance-maker Whirlpool Corp, buying a position worth $432 million at a reported price of $76.60. That’s about 10% of the company, which makes brands like Maytag, Bauknect and KitchenAid.

it’s a company that I’ve written about extensively over the years but not as a stock. It’s because appliance spending is a good economic barometer.

There was bad news today in the earnings report and shares are down 8.5% to $74.00 in the pre-market.

The company is generally seen as a proxy for housing, as new home owners tend to buy appliances. That sector is in a brutal recession right now due to the post-pandemic rise in interest rates.

Perhaps the Tepper investment is a bet on a housing rebound or normalization as we’re certainly near a trough (he’s usually a macro investor). Perhaps he thinks Trump will stack the Fed and lower interest rates by 150 bps. Perhaps it’s a tariff re-shoring story as foreign appliance imports are locked out.

It’s not clear as he hasn’t gone on the record with the reasons for the share purchase. Here is the Q4 company deck, making a case for what it’s doing right.

In any case, company fundamentals aren’t great. That company’s Q4 results:

• Revenue $4.10B vs $4.27B with 2025 full-year sales results down 6.5% y/y
• Ongoing EPS $1.10 vs $1.52 expected
• 2026 revenue guidance $15.3-15.6B vs $15.6B consensus
• 2026 ongoing EPS guidance $7.00 vs $7.11-$7.21 consensus

The spin in the release looks forward:

“With a challenging 2025 behind us, our confidence for 2026 is based on our recent successful product
launches, reduced promotional intensity and a gradual recovery of the housing market,” says CEO Mark Bitzer in the release.

If it can hit those targets, it’s fairly cheap, trading at 10.5x ongoing earnings and a nearly 10% FCF yield at the guidance midpoint. On free cash flow, the company is aiming to generate 7% of sales, which would $1.14 billion at its $16.3B sales target, or a 25% FCF yield.

Another promising spot is price-to-sales at 0.3x. Historically, it’s traded in a 0.4-0.6x range.

The problem is that net debt to EBITDA is at 5.5x and all the free cash (or asset sales) will need to go to deleveraging with the company talking about $400m of debt payments this year (or nearly all the forecast free cash flow).

On the macro side, here is the regional look:

• North American Q4 sales down 0.9% y/y, with the company highlighting Canada as a weak spot
• Latam sales down 4.6% y/y
• Global sales up 8.0% y/y

Overall, it continues to be an interesting name but I still find it surprising that Tepper is making a play as it’s cheap but not extremely cheap and it’s hard to have much confidence in management.

The good news is that today you can buy it cheaper than one of the all-time great fund managers.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Chinese Lunar New Year on Tuesday, 17 February, 2026. 

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the Chinese Lunar New Year on Tuesday, 17 February, 2026. 

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

Kind regards,

IC Markets Global.

The post Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday Trading Schedule 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.