Articles

Trump news today:

• Administration sanctions Maduro’s nephews and 6 ships carrying Venezuelan oil
• Bessent commented that Maduro group in criminal associations are flooding the US with drugs that is poisoning the American people
• Maduro and cronies have a choice: stop the drug trafficking stop the corruption, stop the dictatorship and leave the country.

ON Ukraine:

• The administration continues to talk with both sides.
• If there is a real chance to a peace agreement, the US will send representatives for talks, meetings would need to be productive.

On the Fed:

• Trump thinks the Fed should do more.

On Nvidia H200 chips:

• Chips will be shipped to approved customers in China. (Nvidia shares are down at $-3.80 or more is 2.06% at $179.99)

Trump on TruthSocial said: prices are coming down fast, energy, oil, and gasoline marketing 5 year lows, and the stock market today just it and all-time high. Tariffs are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars.

On China and Japan :

• Trump has a good relationship with leaders of China and Japan

Trump is fighting declining approval ratings although they may be coming after after the dip due to the shutdown. Nevertheless, Trump’s approval rating varies by pollster, generally ranging between 36% and 45% as of mid-December 2025.

Most major polling averages show his approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s, while disapproval ratings are consistently above 50%.

Here is a breakdown of the most recent data from reputable sources:

Polling Averages (Aggregated Data)

These sources combine multiple polls to smooth out outliers and provide a broader picture of public sentiment.

• RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average:

  • Approval: 43.9%

  • Disapproval: 52.9%

  • As of December 11, 2025

• FiveThirtyEight (Silver Bulletin):

  • Approval: 42.4%

  • Disapproval: 54.2%

  • As of December 11, 2025

• Decision Desk HQ:

  • Approval: 43.1%

  • Disapproval: 52.8%

  • As of December 11, 2025

Individual Major Polls

Individual polls can show more variance depending on their methodology (e.g., registered voters vs. all adults).

• Gallup:

  • Approval: 36%

  • Disapproval: 60%

  • Polling dates: Nov 3–25, 2025

  • Note: Gallup highlighted this as a “new second-term low” for President Trump.

• Reuters / Ipsos:

  • Approval: 41%

  • Disapproval: 58%

  • Released: Dec 9, 2025

  • Note: This marked a slight increase from a previous low of 38%.

• Rasmussen Reports:

  • Approval: 45%

  • Disapproval: 52%

  • Released: Dec 10, 2025

• AP / NORC:

  • Approval: 36%

  • Disapproval: 62%

  • Polling dates: Nov 6–10, 2025

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The US treasury has auctioned off $22Bof 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%

The WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction was 4.774%

The results of a US Treasury auction act as a real-time “report card” on the market’s appetite for US government debt. Because US Treasuries are the risk-free benchmark for the entire global financial system, the results ripple across all asset classes—stocks, currencies, and commodities.

Given the auction result, my AUCTION GRADE: B

Reasons for the B grade.

• The tails was -0.1 basis points lower than the WI level. Positive.
• The Bid to cover was on the screws vs the 6 month average. Average.
• Indrect bidders were higher than the 6 month average. Slight positive for international buyers
• DIrect bidders were near the 6 month average. Average
• Dealers were saddled with slightly less than average. Slight positive.

Yields are little changed after the completion of the coupon auctions.

US Treasury Auction Process: Key Components

The US Treasury auction process determines the yield (interest rate) the government pays on its debt. The market effectively “votes” on the price of US debt through this mechanism.

1. The “WI” Level (When-Issued) was 4.774%

• Definition: “When-Issued” refers to trading that occurs in the time between the announcement of an auction and the actual auction itself.

• Significance: It serves as the market’s “price consensus” or expected yield leading up to the deadline. It anchors the market’s expectations.

2. The Tail -0.1 basis point vs the 6 month average of 0.3 basis points

• Definition: The Tail is the difference between the High Yield (the actual yield determined at the auction) and the WI Yield (the expected yield right before the auction closes).

  • Tail = High Yield – WI Yield

• Interpretation:

  • Positive Tail (Weak Demand): If the auction yields higher than the WI level (e.g., WI was 4.00% but the auction stopped at 4.02%), it indicates that demand was softer than expected. Dealers had to lower prices (raise yields) to sell the entire issue.

  • Stopping Through (Strong Demand): If the auction yields lower than the WI level (e.g., 3.98% vs. 4.00%), it indicates aggressive buying.

3. Bid-to-Cover Ratio 2.36X vs the 6 month average of 2.36X

• Definition: The total dollar amount of bids received divided by the amount of debt being sold.

• Significance: This is the primary metric for demand.

  • Higher is better: A ratio of 2.5x means for every $1 of debt offered, $2.50 was bid. Ratios below average suggest weak demand and can spook markets.

4. The Bidders

The Treasury breaks down buyers into three categories to show who is buying the debt:

• Indirect Bidders 65.4% vs the 6 month average of 63.7%

  • Who they are: Foreign central banks, international investors, and some domestic investment managers placing bids through a primary dealer.

  • Significance: Often viewed as a proxy for foreign demand. High indirect participation is generally seen as bullish (strong global confidence in US debt).

• Direct Bidders 23.5% vs the 6 month average of 23.9%:

  • Who they are: Domestic money managers, insurance companies, hedge funds, and individuals placing bids directly with the Treasury (bypassing dealers).

  • Significance: Represents “real money” domestic demand.

• Primary Dealers 11.2% vs the 6-month average of 12.5%

  • Who they are: Large banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) designated by the NY Fed. They are required to bid in every auction.

  • Significance: They act as the “backstop.” They buy whatever supply the Directs and Indirects don’t take. A high Dealer award is generally bearish (bad), as it means the banks are stuck holding excess inventory they must now try to sell into the secondary market.

Debt Statistics & This Week’s Auction Data

Total US Public Debt Outstanding:

As of early December 2025, the total public debt outstanding is approximately $38.4 trillion.

Treasury Auctions for the Week of December 8, 2025:

The Treasury issued the following amounts in the 3, 10, and 30-year maturities this week:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.

Current Market Snapshot

The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.

• Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.

• Inventory Levels: Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately 13% below pre-pandemic levels. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.

• Price Trends: National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately $424,000. However, about 20% of listings are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.

The Affordability Crunch

Affordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed’s easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.

• Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the “affordability squeeze” tests borrower resilience.

• Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the “rate shopping” phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.

Chair Powell on Housing: The “Lock-In” Effect and Supply

During yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven’t immediately fixed the sector’s issues.

1. The “Lock-In” Effect is Stifling Supply
Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively “frozen” because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.

2. Inflation & Housing Services
Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, housing services inflation remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as “modestly restrictive,” which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.

3. The Tariff Impact
When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current “heat” to tariffs, describing them as a “one-time price increase.” However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.

Realtor.com 2026 Forecast: A Steady Shift Toward Balance

Overview: “Low Gear” Recovery

Realtor.com recently outlined their projections for US housing in 2026.

They forecast that the US housing market is expected to shift into a steadier, more balanced state in 2026. While not a boom year, conditions will improve modestly for buyers as affordability pressures ease slightly. The market will remain in “low gear,” with sales rising slowly from historical lows but still constrained by high prices and rates.

Key Data Projections (2026 vs. 2025)

• Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.3% for the year (down from an average of 6.6% in 2025). This stability helps buyers budget but keeps the “lock-in” effect in play for existing owners.

• Home Prices: Forecast to rise by a modest 2.2% year-over-year. Crucially, inflation is expected to outpace this growth (~3%), meaning real home prices (inflation-adjusted) will actually decline slightly, slowly improving affordability.

• Existing-Home Sales: Projected to rise 1.7% to 4.13 million units. This is a small rebound from the 29-year lows seen in 2024-2025.

• Inventory: For-sale inventory will grow by 8.9%, marking the third straight year of gains, though levels will still remain ~12% below pre-pandemic norms.

• Rents: Rents are forecast to decline by 1.0% nationally as a robust supply of new multi-family units hits the market.

Market Dynamics by Group

• For Buyers: “Negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers.” Affordability will improve as incomes grow faster than home prices, pushing the typical mortgage payment share of income below 30% for the first time since 2022.

• For Sellers: The market is moving further into “balanced territory.” Sellers will face more competition and may need to be flexible on price. Delistings (sellers walking away rather than cutting prices) may continue.

• For Renters: A “renter’s market” is emerging, particularly in the South and West (e.g., Austin, Las Vegas, Atlanta) where supply is surging.

Economic Backdrop

• Inflation & Wages: Inflation is expected to hover around 3%, but wage growth (3.6%) will outpace it, restoring some consumer purchasing power.

• Risks: The forecast highlights significant risks, including trade policy/tariffs impacting construction costs and the uncertainty of a Federal Reserve leadership transition when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

Conclusion

2026 is framed as a year of “slow normalization.” It won’t be a dramatic return to the frenzied activity of 2020-2021, nor a crash. Instead, it offers a window of stability where inventory creeps up, rates flatten out, and buyers gradually regain some leverage.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound, but Holiday Distortions Cloud the Picture

U.S. initial jobless claims rebounded to 236K, slightly above the 220K expected by economists. The prior week was also revised higher to 192K from 191K, though that earlier reading remains unusually low. It’s important to recall that last week’s sharp drop to 191K was widely viewed as an outlier, heavily influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday, which often disrupts seasonal adjustments and temporarily suppresses claims activity.

Continuing claims provide additional context. Last week’s total was 1.939 million, but the latest report — which also covers the Thanksgiving period — fell to 1.838 million versus 1.947 million expected. On the surface, this would normally signal a stronger labor market, as fewer individuals are remaining on unemployment benefits. However, just like the initial claims figures, these numbers are distorted by holiday effects, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions about the underlying trend.

Taken together, today’s data suggest some rebound from last week’s artificially low readings, but traders and policymakers will need to wait for post-holiday, normalized data to get a clearer picture of true labor-market momentum.

US trade deficit for September -52.8 billion versus -63.3 billion estimate

U.S. trade data for September showed a notable improvement, with the overall trade deficit narrowing to –$52.8 billion, a sharp reduction from –$63.3 billion in August. The goods deficit also tightened meaningfully, coming in at –$77.69 billion compared with –$84.34 billion the prior month. The smaller gap reflects stronger export activity and a pullback in imports, signaling a firmer trade contribution to GDP heading into the fourth quarter.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• SNB Chairman Schlegel: SNB policy to stoke inflation slowly in the next quarters
• SNB leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected in December
• FX option expiries for 11 December 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been an empty session in terms of data releases and notable newsflow. The only highlight was the SNB monetary policy decision. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.00% as expected and slightly downgraded inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

The economic outlook was upgraded due to the recent decrease of US tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%. Chairman Schlegel downplayed the disappointing inflation readings in the recent months and reiterated that the Bank expects inflation to pick up slowly in the next months due to expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

The Swiss Franc was mostly unchanged after the decision and the press conference, but started to pick up steam on a broad USD weakness that eventually led to a break below the key support around the 0.7980 level on USDCHF.

In the markets, the US dollar remains on the backfoot following the dovish Fed Chair Powell’s press conference where he downplayed the inflation risk and put more emphasis on the labour market.

The US equities, after giving back the post-FOMC gains overnight, are now recovering the losses. US Treasury yields are trading near today’s lows, which also underpinning gold and silver.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 191K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1947K vs 1939K prior.

The data has been pointing to a “low firing, low hiring” labour market for a very long time, and as Fed Chair Powell said yesterday, that’s an unusual situation. The Fed is trying to help the demand side and turn it more into a “low firing, higher hiring” labour market without stoking inflation.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Australia November employment -21.3K vs +20.0K expected
• Mexico approves tariffs as high as 50% taiff on Chinese and Asian imports
• UK RICS house price survey -16 vs -21 expected
• New Zealand Q3 manufacturing sales +1.1% vs -2.9% prior
• Japan Q4 business survey index +4.7% vs +3.8%
• RBC forecasts gold to average $4,600 in 2026 and hit $5,100 in 2027
• Shares of Oracle fall 10% the questions about AI spending continue

Markets:

• Gold down $15 to $4212
• US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 4.12%
• WTI crude oil flat at $58.45
• S&P 500 futures down 53 points or 0.8%
• JPY leads, AUD lags

The Australian dollar struggled after a soft jobs report. The unemployment rate managed to hold steady but only because of a three-tick drop in the participation rate. AUD fell about 20 pips on the headline but that was the extent of that move.

The continued selling in AUD after that came on generalized risk aversion and an unwind of the post-Fed trade. After the decision, the US dollar sold off and stock markets rallied. The move in stock markets has been completely erased and the dollar is rebounding. The equity selling was helped along by a bad post-earnings reaction in Oracle shares, which are down 11% and nearly 50% since their prior earnings spike.

The theme around AI overspending and profitability isn’t going away and will likely nag markets throughout the year ahead.

Neither will tariffs and Mexico made an interesting move by blocking off much of its Asia imports via tariffs. That sets up a potential negotiation with the US to create a bloc and replace Chinese low-cost goods.

Other moves saw silver hit as high as $62.88 as that rally continues. But the profit taking quickly unwound the gains on the day and gold is down modestly.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Mexico’s Senate has approved tariffs of 5-50% on imports from China and other parts of Asia.

The duties will hit Asian countries that don’t have trade deals with Mexico, including China, India, South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia.

• Automobiles (Light Vehicles): 50% (up from 20%)

• Textiles and Clothing generallly 35% (this was a big focus of the bill)

• Steel and Aluminum: 35% (with some at 50%)

• Footwear, Plastics, and Glass: 35%

• Electronics and Appliances: Mixed (5% – 35%) –

  • Some inputs and specific parts were “softened” to lower rates (5% to 10%) to avoid hurting Mexican assembly plants, while finished consumer appliances likely face the 35% rate.

This is starting to look like a bid to get a deal with Trump but note that the original proposal was much harsher. From the US perspective though, all I see is a shift in manufacturing to Mexico from China. If that’s the case, then maybe hurting China was the real strategy all along.

What’s starting to take shape is a US-led fortress North America strategy or perhaps all the Americas. What’s notable is South Korea getting cut out, which is/was a strong US ally. That could further fears that the US is abandoning Asia to China.

This strategy could beg for retaliation from China to Mexico. It also puts Canada in a tough place unless it can get zero tariffs from the US.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In 2025, the Trump administration took on the world with its trade but 2026 will be about its neighbors.

There is a sense that the trade war has stabilized and hopefully it has but the year ahead will be all about the USMCA trade agreement. Mexico and Canada represent nearly 30% of US imports and have largely avoided tariffs so far. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico represent about 33% of US exports.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday that the Trump
administration is keeping all options on the table for the future of the trade agreement, which Trump negotiated in his first term.

It’s a big year for the agreement but there is an automatic review in 2026 and each country has the opportunity to extend it, renegotiate it or withdraw.

I strongly suspect the US will aim for bilateral agreements and Greer hinted at the same today, noting structural differences in the two countries.

“The labour situation’s different. The import-export profile is
different. The rule of law is different. So it makes sense to talk about
things separately with Canada and Mexico,” he said.

Here is a key detail that’s also critical. All three countries must indicate by July 1 about their intentions for the deal but the US must provide a report to Congress 180 days before the deadline — that’s January 2 — and it must signal the administration’s intentions.

It’s possible the deal survives, or at least the important parts but Greer appeared before a U.S. Senate subcommittee on Tuesday, telling
senators that one of his key goals is tightening CUSMA’s “rules of
origin”.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 42.2K
• Full time -56.5K vs +55.3K prior
• Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected (prior 4.3%)
• Participation rate 66.7% vs 67.0% prior

The RBA decision was yesterday but Bullard tipped a more-hawkish stance and the market saw a 33% chance of rate hike as soon as March but we will need to mark that down. Don’t let the lower unemployment rate fool you as it came on a sharp decline in participation. If that had held steady, it would have ticked to 4.6%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -19

If you squint, you can start to see a turn upward.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +3.8%

The trade war isn’t hurting manufacturing and the latest yen weakness won’t hurt as well (at least on the export side, it’s not so great for importers).

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -2.9%

This is a nice rebound after poor Q2 reading.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.