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National inflation data from Japan for March 2026 is due. Tokyo’s March consumer price data, released three weeks ago, offers a useful early read on the national figures due today. Headline inflation in the capital came in at 1.4% year-on-year, easing from 1.5% in February and touching its softest level since March 2022. The core reading, stripping out fresh food, slipped to 1.7%, coming in below market expectations and sitting under the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second straight month.

A broader underlying measure that excludes both fresh food and energy also retreated, falling to 2.3% from 2.5% the month prior. While that reading remains above the BOJ’s target, the step down points to a loss of momentum in price pressures more broadly, in part reflecting the continued dampening effect of government support measures on energy and food costs.

Those subsidies have been doing meaningful work in recent months, helping to contain headline inflation even as a persistently weak yen continues to push up the cost of imports. The net effect has been to keep reported price growth softer than the underlying pipeline pressures might otherwise suggest.

The cooling trend is, however, widely expected to be short-lived. Renewed upward pressure on energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, combined with ongoing yen weakness, is seen reintroducing inflation momentum in the coming months. Strengthening wage dynamics are also expected to provide a more durable underpinning for price growth over the medium term, keeping the BOJ’s rate-hike calculus firmly in play.

The Bank of Japan will be keenly eyeing this data. At next week’s policy meeting, as I posted earlier:

the board is likely to revise its inflation projections sharply higher, with rising costs for oil-related raw materials already prompting some firms to consider further price increases. Sources said to be familiar with the BOJ’s thinking suggest the board may also tweak its policy guidance language, adjusting the current pledge to raise rates “in accordance with economic and price improvements” to better signal its readiness to act flexibly in the face of war-related inflation risks.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

“Don’t rush me,” President Trump says when asked about Iran. “So were in Vietnam for 18 years. Iraq, many, many years….I’ve been doing this for…six weeks.”

For what it’s worth, this is week nine.

• Trump says he has been speaking with Iran and they want a deal
• We got rid of the Iranian leadership.. and the new leadership is fighting among themselves
• No one is left among Iran’s leaders to take over the leadership
• We’ve been speaking but they’re in turmoil
• Want a deal to be everlasting
• I could make a deal right now
• US hit about 75% of military targets
• Will finish up rest of targets if no deal
• Iran may have reloaded during the hiatus
• If there’s no deal with Iran, we’ll “finish it up” militarily
• If Iran doesn’t move oil, infrastructure will explode
• Iran has “a matter of days” until that takes place
• Ships are locked and loaded and ready to go
• Iran’s problem is they’re very disorganized right now
• Americans should expect to pay more for gasoline for “a little while”
• Repeats that he thought oil would hit $200 per barrel
• Doesn’t think the Iran conflict will be very long
• Iran is delaying because they don’t know who they’re talking to
• Says he wouldn’t use a nuclear weapon against Iran

My thinking on all this turmoil talk is that he’s overdoing it and it makes me think it’s not true. The ‘finish it up’ line is interesting, as it also indicates a short timeline. Of course, all of that presumes you can get the Strait back open.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US initial jobless claims 214K vs 210K expected
• US April S&P Global services index 51.3 vs 50.3 expected
• “Don’t rush me” Trump says when asked about Iran
• Trump says Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is
• Trump says he orders attack on any boat placing mines in Strait of Hormuz
• Trump says he’s not anxious to end the war, he has all the time in the world
• Iran supreme leader says enemies have campaign to target national unity
• Iran deploys fresh mines in the Strait of Hormuz – report
• SNB vice chair: We have a greater willingness to intervene in the FX market
• Iran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf resigns from negotiations – Israel report (denied)
• Canada March PPI +2.4% m/m vs +1.9% expected
• Pakistani officials blame blockade, not Iran divisions, for stalled talks

Markets:

• Gold down $47 to $4690
• US 10-year yields up 3.1 bps to 4.325%
• S&P 500 down 30 points, or 0.4%
• USD leads, NZD lags
• WTI crude oil up $4.00 to $96.96

In terms of the war, no one really knows what is going on. Trump keeps saying he’s waiting for a response from Iran on negotiating but Iran keeps saying they won’t negotiate until the blockade of Iran is lifted. Meanwhile, there is a real war of words about unity as Trump and a report from Israel today highlighted turmoil but all of Iran’s top leaders said they were united. So it’s not clear if that’s some kind of psyop but the fact that Trump talks about it non-stop makes me suspicious that not all is as it appears.

The spikes to the extremes of the day (highs in oil, lows in stocks) came after the Israel report that Iran’s parliamentary chief had quit negotiations. There was also a brief report at the same time about Iran activating air defences and an Israeli strike but that was quickly halted and it was instead said to be a test of systems.

There was a recovery from there but not completely. As for the economy, the comments from corporates have been mostly upbeat and the manufacturing side of the S&P Global PMI was particularly strong.

In terms of markets, oil rose for the third day with WTI up $4.00 to $96.96 and now the ‘strait is open’ rally has been completely wiped out. Stocks fell on the day but it was a real mixed bag as there were some major winners and losers on earnings divergences. After hours, shares of INTC spiked higher as the state-backed chipmaker saw strong revenues. The short squeeze on Avis ended in dramatic fashion with a crash lower in shares.

In FX, the euro continues to bleed lower and in bonds, Treasury yields are chopping higher, both signs of war angst.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Axios is out with a report saying that Iran has deployed more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “a US official and a source with knowledge of the issue.”

That shines some light on Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social that said:

I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small
boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the
bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait
of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine
“sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that
activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your
attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Oil prices rose for the third consecutive day and have erased the drop on the “Hormuz is open” message from Iran’s foreign minister. That optimism has faded as the US refused to unblock the Strait and so Iran resumed its blockade.

The chart itself now looks like it’s carving out the second shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, that would ultimately be good news and would point to a cratering of oil prices. That said, Vitol yesterday estimated that 600-700 million barrels of oil had already been lost in this conflict and it will ultimately take 1 billion barrels out because of slow restarts, even if the war ended soon.

Even with Iran and the rest of OPEC running at full speed, it would take a year or two to get inventories back to where they were pre-war. With that, it’s hard for me to see oil completing this pattern and falling to $60-65.

So the risk is that we run back above $100 as the physical market tightens. Iran doesn’t appear to be backing down at the moment. Today, a NYT report said that Mojtaba Khamenei was still alive and functioning, though he likely lost a leg and his face was burned. Knowing that, you have to imagine that he’s not exactly in the mood for compromise.

Combined with the mines report and the rhetoric out of Israel and this ceasefire is much more vulnerable that equity markets would have you believe.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I have no idea whether the US is lying about Iran’s negotiators fracturing or if Iran is lying. Either way, it’s not the kind of thing that should be happening on the way to peace.

Here’s the message from the Supreme Leader, who is said to have lost a leg and had his face burned. The NYT reports today that he’s alert, functioning and passing messages. This might be one of those messages as it says:

“As a result of the remarkable unity that has formed among our compatriots, a fracture has appeared in the enemy. By practically giving thanks for this blessing, [our] cohesion will become greater and more steel-like, and the enemies will become more debased and humiliated. The enemy’s media operations, by targeting the minds and psyches of the people, aim to damage national unity and security; let us not, through our negligence, allow this sinister intention to be realized.”

WTI crude oil is up $3.44 to $96.40.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I’m not sure if this is reflective of Trump doing his usual raging at the media or a sign that he’s increasingly hawkish. The market hasn’t taken it badly.

For those people, fewer in number now than ever before, that are reading
The Failing New York Times, or watching Fake News CNN, that think that I
am “anxious” to end the War (if you would even call it that!) with
Iran, please be advised that I am possibly the least pressured person
ever to be in this position. I have all the time in the World, but Iran
doesn’t — The clock is ticking! The reason some of the Media is doing so
poorly with Subscribers and Viewers is because they no longer have
credibility. Iran’s Navy is lying at the bottom of the Sea, their Air
Force is demolished, their Anti Aircraft and Radar Weaponry is gone,
their leaders are no longer with us, the Blockade is airtight and strong
and, from there, it only gets worse — Time is not on their side! A Deal
will only be made when it’s appropriate and good for the United States
of America, our Allies and, in fact, the rest of the World. President
DONALD J. TRUMP

The S&P 500 is down 32 points, or 0.45%.

Also, here is a stock chart of the ‘failing’ New York Times:

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Risk trades are diving on a report from N12 about Ghalibaf leaving the negotiating team. N12 is the digital news brand of Keshet 12, an Israeli free-to-air television channel

If anyone in the market was still holding out hope for a diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East, it might be time to worry.

We just got a pair of headlines out of Iran that paint a very stark picture of where things are heading, and it’s not toward de-escalation.

First, Iranian President Pezeshkian took to X to completely torpedo the idea that there are any reformist voices left in the room. Remember, Pezeshkian was billed as the “moderate” when he took office. Today? He’s explicitly saying there are no moderates or radicals left—just “complete obedience to the Supreme Leader.”

He was thought to be a pragmatist but that doesn’t seem to be the thinking now. He wrote:

In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates;
we are all “Iranian” and “revolutionary,” and with the iron unity of the nation and government, with complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, we will make the aggressor criminal regret his actions.
One God, one nation, one leader, and one path; that path being the path to the victory of our dear Iran, more precious than life.

The real kicker is the second headline.

Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is reportedly resigning from the negotiating team after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intervened.

Now, I’d wait for confirmation from Iran or US media before diving full into this headline but taken together these two reports indicate:

1. The pragmatists have left the building. Ghalibaf is a conservative, but he’s a pragmatic one who understands the domestic economic toll of endless conflict. If he’s getting pushed out of negotiations by the IRGC, it means the hardliners and the military wing are now driving the bus.

2. You don’t hand the keys to the Revolutionary Guards if you’re looking to cut a deal. You do it when you are bracing for impact and consolidating power.

3. They are closing ranks, demanding absolute ideological unity, and sidelining politicians in favor of generals. That means war is more likely.

Expect crude to catch a bid on this as the market digests the reality that the IRGC is now fully dictating terms. The S&P 500 is quickly down 0.7%. Yesterday I wrote: The foundations of this stock market rally are iffy.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 49.8
• Manufacturing 54.0 vs 52.5 expected – -highest since May 2022
• Prior manufacturing 52.4
• Composite 52.0 vs 50.5 expected
• Composite prior was 51.4
• Employment basically flat for a second month
• Input cost inflation at an 11-month high
• Output prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022

This is a two-month high in services and a nice surprise but the real headline number is on manufacturing, which is the best in almost four years. The US manufacturing sector has largely been in something of a recession for all of that time and this is a good signal that it’s turning the corner, despite higher energy prices. However there is some fine print: a big chunk of that new orders surge is companies panic-buying ahead of war-related shortages and price hikes.

Unfortunately, the services side — which is what actually drives the US economy — barely budged off the floor and new business growth was the slowest in two years.

The more important story is on prices. Output prices jumped the most since mid-2022 and input costs are running at an 11-month high, with supply chains snarling up in a way we haven’t seen since the post-pandemic mess.

Survey chief economist Chirs Williamson sums up the Fed’s problem nicely:

“Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma. However, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth.”

The survey says it’s consistent with “growth in excess of 1%” which isn’t exactly blockbuster but it’s still growth but is also coming with spiking prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:

Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They
just don’t know! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have
been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not
very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total
control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without
the approval of the United States Navy. It is “Sealed up Tight,” until
such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!! Thank you for your attention
to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

It seems like the US and everyone else is waiting for some kind of response from Iran, or the US didn’t like the response from Iran the first time.

One thing that has been consistent is that Iran says the US blockade of Hormuz is a violation of the ceasefire and that they won’t negotiate until it’s lifted. Obviously, Trump doesn’t believe that’s the case and thinks he’s gaining leverage by cutting off funds to Iran.

There is also an update from US interior minister Burgum (though it’s not really his file) who said that Trump’s order on boats laying mines is not an escalation.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump posts on Truth Social:

I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small
boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the
bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait
of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine
“sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that
activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your
attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

I’m not sure where that falls under the ceasefire but it’s the kind of thing you might do if you’re thinking about naval escorts rather than peace. Then again, it’s also the kind of thing you might want to accelerate if you were thinking about peace.

Stock futures moved lower on the post.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Pakistan has proposed opening the Strait in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions on Iran

Trump cited Iran’s “fractured” leadership as the reason for extending the ceasefire but yesterday the White House said they knew they were negotiating with the right people. Now there’s this report and it adds up: Iran has insisted on peace in Lebanon and no blockades as a precondition for talks.

US stock futures have pared the decline after a China Central Television report citing an Iranian diplomatic sourse said that preparations for talks between Iran and the USA may see a breakthrough “tonight or tomorrow.”

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +0.4% m/m
• PPI +7.8% y/y vs 5.4% prior
• Raw materials price index +12.0% m/m vs +0.6% prior
• Raw materials price index +23.6% y/y vs +8.6% prior

That’s not great on the PPI headline but downright scary on the raw materials price index. It’s not a big surprise given gasoline prices but that’s a problem for inflation.

Separately, StatsCan reported that March manufacturing sales most likely rose 3.5%.

For background, Canada’s two key producer price gauges — the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) — are published monthly by Statistics Canada, typically around the 20th of the following month. The IPPI measures prices received by Canadian manufacturers for goods sold at the factory gate, excluding indirect taxes, tariffs, and downstream transportation or distribution costs. The RMPI, by contrast, captures prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw material inputs, including freight, net taxes, and duties — making it a useful leading indicator for pipeline cost pressures. Both are reported on a January 2020 = 100 base and feed into the calculation of real GDP by industry in the national accounts. While the IPPI does not measure the direct impact of tariffs, cross-border duties can influence the series indirectly through input costs and supply-demand dynamics — a factor that has drawn extra attention amid recent Canada-U.S. trade frictions.

January 2026 delivered a sharp upside surprise: the IPPI jumped 2.7% month-over-month and the RMPI surged 7.7%, led by an 18.2% leap in primary non-ferrous metals as gold, silver, and platinum-group prices extended their run.

February’s release, published March 20, showed a clear cooling in the monthly pace while year-over-year pressure stayed elevated. The IPPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and was up 5.4% from a year earlier — its 17th consecutive year-over-year gain. The RMPI climbed 0.6% on the month and 8.6% year-over-year. Energy and petroleum products led the monthly gain (+7.8%), with refined products up 8.2% as crude prices climbed from mid-February on rising Iran-U.S. tensions. Primary non-ferrous metals gave back some ground (-3.7%) after January’s spike, while meat, fish, and dairy prices fell 5.9%, the sharpest drop since July 2020, driven by tumbling poultry and pork prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.