Articles

• Prior 0.0%
• Core CPI +0.5% y/y
• Prior +0.4%

Swiss inflation continues to hold rather flattish with there being no growth on the month-on-month reading as well. That continues to underscore a lack of any momentum in price pressures. The script has flipped on the SNB for quite a while now as the battle is now against deflation rather than inflation once again.

For now though, core annual inflation keeping at around 0.5% is still allowing them some breathing room so as to avoid diving into the toolbox of special monetary policy weapons to deal with the situation. In particular, the Swiss central bank wants to avoid negative interest rates for as much as they can and for as long as they can get away with.

And the latest inflation data above will just about help them stick to the status quo for now. It’s not a topic that I would want to get into now but there is a risk of China exporting deflation across the globe in the coming year. And if so, Switzerland will not be insulated from that impact. So, the SNB might be forced into another tough spot and one that might not be too within their control. Just some food for thought as we look to the year ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.6%

That’s a surprising beat, with the jump owing to a spike in large orders in the manufacture of metal products (+25.3%) and in other vehicle construction i.e. aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles (+12.3%). That adds to moderate increases in several other sectors too, helping to underscore a strong reading for November.

Looking at other form of breakdowns, the orders for capital goods rose by 7.9% while orders for intermediate goods increased by 1.0% and for consumer goods by 8.2%. Then, foreign orders rose by 4.9% on the month while domestic orders increased by 6.5%.

Compared to November 2024, new orders in the manufacturing sector are estimated to be 10.5% higher year-on-year. As for the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders from September 2025 to November 2025 were 4.0% higher than in the preceding three months. If you exclude large orders from that equation, new orders rose by 2.1% over the same period.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 0.0%; revised to -0.1%
• House prices +0.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6%

UK house prices dropped unexpectedly at the end of last year but managed to still round off the year slightly higher compared to where it was in December the previous year. Overall, it’s much like what other housing indicators have shown for the UK market. And that can be summed up by one word: resilience.

There’s nothing here that will get BOE policymakers off their seats as their main conflict is still on inflation for the most part.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The sources mentioned that Nvidia is requiring full upfront payment from Chinese customers who are seeking its H200 artificial intelligence chips, which is a rather unusual and stringent term compared to standard industry practice. This looks to be a move by Nvidia to hedge against the relative uncertainty of whether Beijing will approve of the shipments it would seem.

Besides requiring full upfront payment, Nvidia is also imposing terms of having no options for clients to cancel, ask for refunds or change configurations after the orders are placed. And in special circumstances, Nvidia might allow for customers to provide commercial insurance or asset collateral as an alternative to cash payment.

For some context, Chinese tech firms have reportedly placed over 2 million orders for H200 chips. That well exceeds the inventory of 700,000 of the chips. Despite Beijing wanting to force Chinese companies to rely more on homemade technology, it’s clear that China’s own developed AI processors are still lagging behind Nvidia especially for large-scale training of advanced AI models.

Adding to the report above, Beijing is said to have asked some Chinese tech firms to temporarily pause their H200 chip orders as regulators are trying to decide how many domestically produced chips each customer will be required to buy alongside each H200 chip order. In other words, Beijing is trying to balance things out in some convoluted way to force these companies to still find use or make do with China-made chips.

As for Nvidia itself, there’s good and bad to their decision here. On the one hand, they know that they have leverage to demand such terms. And the application helps to transfer the financial risk from Nvidia to its Chinese clients, in hopefully avoiding what happened with the incident involving H20 chips previously.

However, it is very much a balancing act. With Chinese clients already forced out by Beijing to seek domestic alternatives, Nvidia’s steep financial terms could very well accelerate the transition.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It’s a rare report in which the Japanese central bank makes no changes to any of their economic assessment of the 9 Japanese regions covered. For the most part, they see regional economies as “recovering moderately” or “picking up moderately”. And that fits with their main messaging in their view towards the Japanese economy as a whole too.

Here is the full assessment breakdown:

Looking at the other details:

• Public investment is mixed with some regions seen “picking up” while others “has been at a high level”
• Business fixed investment are all seen as “increasing”
• Private consumption is also mixed, with an array of assessments from “picking up”, “recovering moderately”, “has been firm/resilient”, and “increasing moderately”
• Housing investment is mostly described as “relatively weak” across most regions
• Production is mostly seen as “more or less flat” as a trend with only Tohoku seen as “picking up”
• Employment and income is seen as “improving moderately” across the board

This is one report that offers just a glimpse of what the BOJ is feeling about the economy and what makes up their view and general outlook. It’s not one that really offers too much excitement or significance in terms of market impact. So, carry on as you will.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• China warns battery makers on overcapacity risks in EV and energy storage sectors
• Japan 30-year JGB auction weakens as bid-to-cover drops and tail widens
• Trump wants strategic control of Venezuela oil industry to reshape markets, send oil to 50
• Barclays urges selective approach to Chinese tech stocks in 2026
• Goldman Sachs sees further China equities upside on AI and earnings growth: “Prominent 10”
• RBA’s Hauser downplays CPI relief, says rate cuts unlikely anytime soon
• China accused of hacking U.S. congressional staff emails in Salt Typhoon cyber campaign
• US oil majors seek guarantees before investing in Venezuela as Trump pushes output revival
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0197 (vs. estimate at 6.9926)
• DATA: Australia November 2025 Trade Balance +2936mn AUD (expected +4900mn)
• South Korea warns on won volatility, signals swift action and equity-inflow measures
• PBOC rolls CNY 1.1tn repos to keep liquidity ample as Q1 funding needs rise
• Japan real wages slide sharply in November, posing a key dilemma for the Bank of Japan
• DATA: Japan November 2025 real wages -2.8% y/y
• Rubio to meet Danish officials amid rising tensions over Greenland and NATO
• Goldman Sachs warns extreme silver price volatility likely to persist
• China FX reserves rise as record trade surplus revives yuan valuation debate
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: ISM services improves, JOLTS disappoint

At a glance:

• FX ranges subdued despite heavy macro and geopolitical news flow

• Japan wages and JGB auction highlight long-end pressure

• RBA pushes back firmly on rate-cut expectations

• South Korea and China policy signals aim to stabilise markets

• Geopolitics add to risk premium, but not yet disorderly

Market overview:

Major FX pairs traded in narrow, subdued ranges despite a busy session for macro data and policy headlines across the Asia-Pacific region. Markets appeared content to absorb developments without chasing momentum, with positioning cautious ahead of upcoming global data and central-bank events.

Japan: wages and bonds in focus:

Japan’s real wages fell 2.8% y/y in November, the sharpest decline since January, as a plunge in bonus payments combined with still-elevated inflation continued to erode household purchasing power. The data underscore the ongoing challenge for the BOJ: tightening policy into an environment where real incomes remain under pressure.

Bond markets echoed that tension. Japan’s 30-year JGB auction saw weaker demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.14 from 4.04, while the tail widened to 0.15. The highest accepted yield printed at 3.457%, keeping pressure on the super-long end and reinforcing curve-steepening risks.

Japanese equities extended losses, with the Nikkei sliding for a second day amid profit-taking in AI-related names. The index also fell below the 52,000 level as trade frictions with China resurfaced, including Beijing’s anti-dumping probe into Japan’s dichlorosilane imports — a key semiconductor input.

Australia: trade data and firm RBA messaging:

Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in November, falling to A$2.94bn from A$4.35bn, well below expectations. Exports dropped 2.9%, led by a 9% fall in iron ore, while imports edged 0.2% higher.

On policy, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced a firm stance, saying November CPI was “largely as expected” and that inflation above 3% remains too high. He reiterated that Australians have likely seen the last rate cut of this cycle, leaving February hike risk alive. The messaging supported front-end yields and helped limit downside pressure on the Australian dollar.

Korea:

South Korea’s finance ministry warned FX volatility is elevated, said won moves are disconnected from fundamentals, and pledged swift stabilisation measures if needed. Officials also flagged steps to encourage investment into local equities.

China and geopolitics

China-related risk sentiment remained mixed. Chinese markets were uneven, with Hong Kong pressured by tech weakness, while the mainland found support from a CNY 1.1tn PBoC reverse repo operation aimed at maintaining ample liquidity.

Geopolitically, reports alleging Chinese cyber intrusions into U.S. congressional staff emails added another layer of U.S.–China tension, reinforcing uncertainty around tech controls, defence policy and capital flows. The impact on markets was contained for now, but the tone remains a drag on China-linked risk assets and Asia FX.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -1.2%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -1.25%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.1%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.2%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• China allegedly hacked emails of U.S. congressional staff

• Targeted committees include China, intelligence, defence and foreign affairs

• Linked to cyber campaign known as “Salt Typhoon”

• U.S. officials warn of risks to critical infrastructure

• Incident adds strain to already tense U.S.–China relations

U.S. concerns over Chinese cyber espionage intensified today following reports that email systems used by congressional staff on several of the most powerful committees in the House of Representatives were compromised as part of a broad hacking campaign known as “Salt Typhoon.”

According to reporting by the Financial Times, individuals familiar with the matter said China accessed email systems used by staffers working for the House China committee, as well as aides linked to the foreign affairs, intelligence, and armed services committees. While Reuters said it could not independently verify the report, the alleged breach has added urgency to Washington’s already heightened focus on cyber security risks tied to U.S.–China strategic competition.

Salt Typhoon has emerged as a central concern for U.S. cyber and national security officials, not only because of its scope but also due to its suspected objectives. Officials allege the campaign goes beyond traditional intelligence gathering and may involve pre-positioning access within sensitive systems that could be exploited to disrupt or paralyse U.S. critical infrastructure in the event of a future conflict with China. That assessment marks a shift from espionage toward potential battlefield preparation in cyberspace.

Beijing has repeatedly denied involvement in the alleged intrusions, consistent with its past responses to U.S. accusations of state-sponsored hacking. The White House offered no immediate comment on the latest report, though U.S. agencies have previously warned that cyber threats now represent a core pillar of strategic rivalry with China.

The targeting of congressional staff, rather than elected lawmakers, highlights a growing recognition among intelligence services that policy development, legislative strategy and internal communications are often concentrated at the staff level. Access to such systems could offer insights into U.S. legislative priorities, defence planning, sanctions strategy and diplomatic positioning.

The episode is likely to reinforce bipartisan momentum in Washington for tougher cyber defences, expanded oversight of digital infrastructure, and closer coordination with allies facing similar threats. It may also further complicate already strained U.S.–China relations, adding another friction point alongside trade, technology controls, Taiwan and military posture in the Indo-Pacific.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data post only, I’ll have more detail in a separate post.

Australia November 2025:

Trade Balance +2,936mn

• expected +4900mn, prior +4,385mn

Exports -2.9% m/m

• prior +3.4%

Imports +0.2% m/m

• prior +2.0%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Data post only, I’ll be back with details separately.

Real Cash Earnings -2.8% y/y

expected -1.2%, prior -0.8%

Overtime Pay +1.20% y/y

• expected +1.4%, prior +1.5%

Average Cash Earnings +0.5% y/y

• expected +2.3%, prior +2.6%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Rubio to meet Danish officials next week over Greenland tensions

• Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland alarms allies

• U.S. military option not ruled out, raising NATO concerns

• European leaders reaffirm Greenland’s sovereignty

• Greenland’s strategic value intensifies geopolitical fault lines

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed he will meet with Danish officials next week amid sharply rising tensions over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark that has suddenly become a focal point in U.S.–European relations. The announcement comes as the Biden administration’s successor government under President Donald Trump has reiterated a long-standing, controversial desire to gain control of the Arctic island, a move that has alarmed Denmark, Greenland and NATO allies.

Trump’s interest in Greenland, which dates back to his first presidential term, is rooted in strategic military considerations and broader competition with Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic. Recent U.S. military action in Venezuela, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, has amplified European concerns that Washington could pursue similarly forceful tactics in other theatres. White House officials have not ruled out using military power to achieve their goals, a statement that has drawn rare, unified European warnings about the risks of undermining international norms and alliance cohesion.

Denmark’s Prime Minister has made clear that any U.S. attempt to take over Greenland would amount to an existential threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, arguing that annexation of a NATO ally’s territory would effectively end the alliance. Leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the U.K. have backed Denmark’s position, emphasizing that Greenland “belongs to its people” and should remain under Danish and Greenlandic authority.

Rubio, speaking to reporters, did not explicitly rule out the possibility of force but reiterated that the U.S. administration prefers diplomatic engagement. He noted that every president retains the option to address national security threats through various means, including military action if deemed necessary.

The dispute underscores deeper geopolitical fault lines over Arctic security, alliance obligations and respect for sovereignty. As Denmark and Greenland seek talks, all eyes are on next week’s meeting, which could determine whether diplomatic channels can contain a crisis with potentially far-reaching implications for NATO’s future.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• December ISM services 54.5 vs 52.3 expected
• JOLTS job openings for November 7.146M vs 7.600M estimate.
• ADP December national employment +41K vs +47K expected
• US October factory orders -1.3% vs -1.2% expected
• EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3832K vs +447K expected
• Blackstone shares fall after Trump says to ban corporate ownership of homes (but he can’t)
• Trump demand defense companies halt buybacks and dividends

Markets:

• Gold down $45 to $4453
• WTI crude oil down 83-cents to $56.30
• S&P 500 down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.15%
• USD leads, CAD lags

The early trade was generally risk positive and at midday, the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time record. The President threw some cold water on that as he talked about defense companies halting dividends and buybacks. He also talked about banning institutional ownership of single family homes.

In reality, he doesn’t have the power to do either of those things but its wasn’t exactly a pro-stock market message. Moreover, there is building angst about the potential Supreme Court decision on tariffs. Many of the names sold off today would get hurt if the court upholds tariffs, or outlines a way for the President to implement them in some other way.

The US dollar generally climbed but the moves in FX weren’t overly large. The dollar bid was helped by an in-line ADP reading and a strong ISM services report. That was balanced by a weak JOLTS reading. It all adds some intrigue to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report but the pre-data numbers so far have been good.

Commodities were major movers again as silver rose above $80 only to get slammed lower before recovering somewhat. Gold also declined on the day in a round of profit taking.

Oil fell again as the market continues to digest Venezuela and Trump’s team continues to talk about taking Venezuelan oil, selling it, and holding it in US banks for returning it to Venezuela when it sees fit.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

December trade data from China headlines the economic and event calendar in Asia today, Thursday, January 8, 2026.

I have not seen this listed on any other calendar, so I’m thinking perhaps it will not be published today. Trade data from China is often more towards the middle of the month.

I’ll keep an eye out for it, but, honestly, I’m not expecting it today. If it does hit, a couple of things to keep in mind:

• The time of release is scheduled for 0300 GMT, which is 2200 US Eastern time. The trade data does not necessarily get published on time, so if you are awaiting it it’ll pay to be flexible on this.
• Also, the trade data often comes out in dribs and drabs, it can take a good hour or so sometimes to get the complete picture.

We’ve had plenty to going on with from China this first full trading week of the new year. I posted on what I though was a clear signal from the People’s Bank of China:

• China flags rate and RRR cuts in 2026 as PBoC leans dovish

A clear signal of what, you ask? I said in that post (as a big bold print in the chart attached, check it out at that link) that ‘reading between the lines the PBoC is asking to stop buying so much yuan’. That turned out to be a gpood take with:

• the Chinese yuan pulled back from a 32-month high after the PBoC set a weaker daily fix for
  the first time in four sessions

And, the yuan lost ground during the session yesterday:

Will CNY fall further today? Let’s listen out if the PBoC offer us up any more insider info, otherwise don’t chisel a ‘weaker yuan’ view in stone just yet.

Also from China yesterday, a very hot topic indeed:

• China gold reserves continue to climb, up for a 14th month running

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.