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• Prior week 216K
• initial jobless claims 191K. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when
  it was 189,000. The claims is for the week of November 29.
• The 4-week moving
  average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was
  revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250
• Continuing claims 1.939 million versus 1.961 million estimate
• The 4-week moving
  average was 1,945,250, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was
  revised down by 4,250 from 1,955,750 to 1,951,500.

The data for the initial jobs claims may be influenced by the Thanksgiving day holiday.. For the continuing claims it is for the week of November 22. Thanksgiving was on November 27. Nevertheless, the data is definitely near the lows suggesting there does not seem to be a lot of laying off.

Low hire. Low fire.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Chicago Fed releases a real-time unemployment forecast and sees as slight improvement in November at 4.44% vs 4.46% in October. The survey highlights how they’ve had to adjust due to the lack of non-farm payrolls.

“To estimate the November 2025 unemployment rate probabilities, we made
an adjustment to account for the cancellation of the November 7th
release of BLS data for October,” the report said.

Note that the distribution of probabilities is tilted higher.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, which marks a 53% decline compared to the previous month at least. But when compared to the same period last year, layoffs were 24% higher and this is the highest November month tally since 2022. So, that puts things into better context at least.

As a whole, total job cuts for the 2025 year-to-date amount to roughly 1.171 million – which is up 54% compared to the 2024 year-to-date through to November.

Meanwhile, planned hires only totaled to 497,151 – which is the lowest year-to-date total since 2010, and down 35% compared to 2024.

Once again, all of this just continues to point to further softening in labour market conditions as a whole.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Japanese yen gains pick up as BOJ looks to win first showdown against Takaichi
• BOJ reportedly likely to raise interest rates later this month
• China state-owned banks reportedly buying dollars to tame the surging yuan
• ECB’s Cipollone: Risks around inflation seem balanced
• Eurozone October retail sales 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Germany November construction PMI 45.2 vs 42.8 prior
• UK November construction PMI 39.4 vs 44.1 expected
• Reminder: There will be no US non-farm payrolls release this week
• China President Xi says will expand domestic demand in 15th five-year plan

Markets:

• JPY leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 4.085%
• Gold down 0.2% to $4,197.85
• WTI crude oil up 0.6% to $59.30
• Bitcoin down 0.9% to $92,928

There wasn’t much action in European trading today as markets keep the calm on the week, as the anticipation continues to build towards the Fed policy decision next week.

The Japanese yen is the notable mover, nudging higher after a report reaffirmed intentions by the BOJ to raise interest rates again this month. That of course follows from the more hawkish rhetoric from BOJ governor Ueda earlier in the week, with government sources saying that they will have little choice but to tolerate the course of action by the central bank in hiking rates on 19 December.

USD/JPY hovered around 155.10 early on in the day but slowly tracked lower before stumbling to around 154.55 currently, down 0.5% on the day. That is the lowest the pair has traded since mid-November and keeps sellers interested in search of a further downside retracement after the jump higher last month.

Besides that, major currencies in general kept rather muted with not all too much going on. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1675 with large option expiries keeping things in check while GBP/USD is also flat at 1.3353 on the day. Meanwhile, there wasn’t much appetite among commodity currencies either with USD/CAD up just 0.1% to 1.3968 and AUD/USD up 0.1% to 0.6610 currently.

In the equities space, European indices are posting modest gains with the DAX bouncing back after the losses yesterday. However, US futures are keeping more tentative and that’s permeating a more reserved market mood in general ahead of the Wall Street open later. S&P 500 futures are just marginally up but close to little changed and that’s not leaving much to work with in terms of risk appetite today.

In the commodities space, gold is down slightly back under $4,200 while silver is tracking lower and at one point erased gains for the week during the session. The latter dipped down by over 2% to a low of $56.65 earlier before a slight bounce back to $57.53 now – still down 1.6% on the day. So, precious metals are not quite finding much conviction to start the new month thus far.

Coming up, we’ll have the US Challenger job cuts and weekly initial jobless claims to get through. So, that’ll add just a tad bit of spice on the day as we gear towards North America trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.1%

Euro area retail sales held more stable in October, with the breakdown showing an increase in the volume of retail trade for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%) and automotive fuel (+0.3%). That is offset by a decline in retail sales for non-food products (-0.2%).

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 44.1

Ouch, that’s a bummer. The drop in November marks the steepest downturn in UK construction
output for five-and-a-half years, with all three subsectors seeing the greatest
fall in activity since May 2020. That comes amid a sharp reduction in both new orders and employment. Meanwhile, business optimism also sank to its weakest since December 2022. S&P Global notes that:

“November data revealed a sharp retrenchment across
the UK construction sector as weak client confidence
and a shortfall of new project starts again weighed on
activity.

“Total industry activity decreased to the greatest
extent for five-and-a-half years, led by steep falls in
infrastructure and residential building work. Commercial
construction also faced severe headwinds during
November as business uncertainty in the run up to the
Budget pushed clients to defer investment decisions.

“Lower workloads, alongside pressure on margins from
rising wages and purchasing costs, continued to dampen
staff hiring in November. The latest round of job cuts was
the most marked since August 2020.”

“Construction companies also signalled a slide in
business activity expectations for the year ahead as
hopes of an imminent rebound in sales pipelines faded
in November. The degree of optimism dropped to its
lowest since December 2022 amid reports of cutbacks to
client budgets and pervasive worries about long-term UK
economic growth prospects.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 42.8

This at least marks some improvement in German construction activity, though continuing to keep in contraction territory. That said, civil engineering activity is seen improving for the fourth time in six months and employment conditions actually rose for the first time in over three-and-a-half years. HCOB notes that:

“The civil engineering sector is still sputtering but looks set to gradually pick up speed. Since the middle of this year,
infrastructure projects have been moving forward for a month or two at a time, only to then hit reverse. In November, the
sector was back on track for expansion. The more planned public infrastructure projects get underway in the coming months,
the longer this sector is likely to stay in growth territory.

“The recession in the construction sector eased somewhat in November. This is almost exclusively thanks to civil
engineering, where the index made a sharp jump from contraction to expansion. Public infrastructure projects, like the
renewal of rail lines, are playing an important role here. Residential and commercial construction, on the other hand, remain
stuck in the economic trough, especially housing, which is particularly deep. The increase in building permits reported by the
Federal Statistical Office suggests this sector could pick up again somewhat next year. In the short term, though, an
accelerated decline in order intakes can be observed. That lines up with the fact that construction companies as a whole are
predominantly pessimistic about their activity in the coming year.

“Stagflation still rules the construction sector, as costs have been rising steadily since spring and subcontractors’ invoices
are climbing higher too. At the same time, construction activity is declining. One explanation is probably the shortage of
skilled workers, which, according to the Association of German Engineers (VDI), continues to persist, especially among civil
engineers. On top of that, most building material prices have risen further from already high levels this year. The slump in
the broader construction sector can only be overcome if the economy as a whole returns to sustainable growth, improving
the purchasing power of consumers and businesses alike.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 3.0%

The Swiss jobless rate holds steady at 3.0%, keeping steadier in November. However, the overall trend continues to point to gradual softening in labour market conditions and that will keep the SNB on their toes especially with the eventual need to pivot to negative interest rates down the road.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As mentioned earlier in the week, the most significant point of this ordeal is that it means the Fed will not have an official labour market report to work with before their next policy decision on 10 December. Now, is it just all a ruse by the BLS in timing it so as to not reflect “better” numbers that might get in the way of a Fed rate cut next week? With the ongoing Trump politicisation of the Fed and the stats office, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing.

But as noted before this, the BLS did mention that “the delay in reporting has seen the establishment survey collection rate move up to a higher-than-usual 80.2% as businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown”. Low survey collection rates have accounted for major revisions to payrolls data in the past, so just keep that in mind.

In any case, traders are still pricing in ~85% odds of a Fed rate cut for December and that reads as a given at this point. So, one can reasonably expect Powell & co. to deliver one more rate cut in wrapping up the year before markets break for Christmas and the holiday season.

That means the only relevant US labour market data releases remaining this week will be from today. That being the Challenger job cuts and the weekly initial jobless claims.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Positive comments from Xi for the China trade and China proxy trade (eg, a tailwind for AUD).

Will expand domestic demand in 15th five-year plan

—

Headlines via Reuters:

• China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: Both China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries.

• China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: China and France should uphold multilateralism.

• China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France.

• Xi and Macron attend agreement-signing ceremony.

• China’s Xi: Had friendly, candid talks with Macron.

• China’s Xi: We agree to enhance political mutual trust.

• China’s Xi: We should support each other on core interests.

• China’s Xi: We agree to expand practical cooperation.

• China’s Xi: We agree to consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy.

• China’s Xi: We agree to push forward balanced development of trade ties.

• China’s Xi: We will expand two-way investment.

• China’s Xi: We will strengthen strategic coordination.

• China’s Xi: On Ukraine, China supports all efforts conducive to peace.

• China’s Xi: It is hoped that all parties will reach a fair, lasting and binding agreement through dialogue and negotiation — a peace agreement accepted by all parties.

• China’s Xi: China will provide $100 million in aid to Palestinians.

• China’s Xi: China will expand domestic demand in the 15th Five-Year Plan.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Trump to decide whether to provide licences to allow Nvidia to export the H200 to China
• ANZ sees oil surplus capping Brent below $65 in early 2026, rising toward $70 later
• Japan’s 30-yr JGB sale draws highest demand since 2019 as bid-cover surges
• The headline about what BoJ Ueda said is missing the much bigger point (hint, rate hikes)
• JPMorgan upgrades China to overweight, sees 19% upside for MSCI China into 2026
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says current interest rates are still accommodative
• Japan’s Chief Cabinet Sec. says concerned over rapid, one-sided yen moves
• CNY and CNH traders, why today’s reference rate saw the biggest gap in nearly 3 years
• SGX rejects report of talks to buy Cboe Australia after AFR acquisition claim
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0733 (vs. estimate at 7.0554)
• Australian October trade balance a surplus of 4385mn (expected 4219mn)
• Tesla UK sales drop 19% as Chinese EV rivals surge and market demand cools
• Oil traders note: Maduro confirms phone contact with Trump, hint of diplomatic thaw
• Yuan nears 7 as US–China thaw lifts sentiment, but PBOC slows pace of appreciation
• Chevron sets $18–19bn 2026 capex, prioritising US shale and Guyana offshore growth
• Wall Street cautions Trump, Hassett pick seen risking Fed credibility, raising long yields
• Morgan Stanley sees strong 2026 M&A and IPO wave, expects more bank consolidation
• JPMorgan: labour slump warrants near-term Fed cuts, but sticky inflation limits easing
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 3 Dec: ADP employment report weaker than expectations
• Trump avoids questions about China and Nvidia
• US stocks close marginally higher
• Trump says Witkoff meeting with Putin ‘reasonably good’. Trump adds no substantive details

The yen weakened in early Tokyo trading, with USD/JPY pushing above 155.50 before easing after a strong long-end JGB auction. Japanese government bonds initially sold off across the 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-year sectors, but recovered much of the move after the 30-year sale delivered its highest bid-to-cover since 2019 and a markedly tighter tail, signalling resilient demand for duration. The 30-year yield fell to 3.385%, down 3.5 bps, helping steady broader sentiment after recent volatility.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda told parliament that monetary conditions remain accommodative, even after recent adjustments, but stressed uncertainty about how far the BOJ can ultimately raise rates given the wide range of estimates for Japan’s neutral rate. His comments offered little guidance on the terminal level but reinforced that further tightening soon remains possible, but not yet assured.

The Australian dollar edged higher both before and after data showed household spending jumped by the most in nearly two years in October. The ABS said discounting drove a 1.7% rise in goods spending, while services increased 0.8%, supporting a firmer domestic demand backdrop.

In geopolitics and tech, the Financial Times reported that President Trump is preparing a high-level meeting to decide whether to allow Nvidia to export its H200 chip to China. Nvidia is likely to welcome the move. The FT added that the administration is not planning major new export controls, easing some industry concerns around US–China tech policy.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) %
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) %
• Shanghai
  Composite %
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) %

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Stocks have taken a turn to the downside after a report from The Information that Microsoft has lowered its AI sales quotas.

• The company has lowered expectations for how quickly it can get its customers to spend on newer products, specifically agents.
• Multiple divisions have reduced how much salespeople need to grow sales of certain AI products by, after many missed sales growth roles in fiscal year that ended in June

The NASDAQ index is now trading down -83 points. The S&P futures are implying a decline of -7 points.

Shares of Microsoft are trading down -1.97% at $480 after closing at $490 yesterday.

In a post yesterday (“Why the stock market is not out of the woods just yet”), I wrote how Microsoft was testing its falling 100 hour moving average. That moving average comes in at $491.75. The price ticked above that level during intraday trading yesterday to a high price of $493.45, but could not sustain momentum and closed below that level at the $490, keeping the sellers in control.

Traders would need to get above that moving average to tilt the technical bias more to the upside at least in the short term. Absent that and they sellers are more in control (in the short term).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.