Articles

• Iran foreign minister: The Strait of Hormuz is completely open
• Trump thanks Iran for opening the Strait
• Trump says he expects Iran war deal “in a day or two”
• Trump says US naval blockage of Iran should be halted “very quickly”
• Trump says US will get nuclear dust and that Israel is now prohibited from bombing Lebanon
• Iran Parliamentary Committee Spokesman: We will not allow uranium to leave the country
• Senior Iranian official: Significant differences remain, serious talks required
• US considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal – report
• Fed’s Daly: Businesses cautiously optimistic
• Fed’s Waller: Job market break even rate now likely around zero
• BoE’s Pill challenges “wait-and-see” status quo, urges proactive inflation defense
• Canada March housing starts 235.9K vs 255.0K expected

Markets:

You can’t shake the feeling that there will be at least one more twist in this saga but all signs were positive on Friday as Iran announced the Strait was reopening and Trump said a deal is coming in a day or two. That led to a $10 drop in oil prices and the corresponding price action with bond yields down 6-8 bps late and the Nasdaq up for a 13th straight session.

The US dollar sold off and the euro rose as high as 1.1847.

Notably though, the US dollar decline didn’t last and completely reversed later. The moves in stocks and bonds moderated. That could be a sign of creeping doubt, profit taking on the ‘peace trade’ or something else. Very late in the day there was a report about ships being turned away in Hormuz and some doubts about Trump’s claims, including Iran’s uranium leaving the country. There were also an incredible amount of leaks, so many that it seemed more like a communication strategy than anything genuine.

The fear is that Iran’s negotiators might not be on the same page as the IRGC and that Trump’s over the top enthusiasm today was to find out if those negotiators even have the power to dictate a deal to a reluctant IRGC. There was also a report that Israel’s Netanyahu was shocked by the claim that bombing on Lebanon will stop.

Could this whole thing be an effort to suss out if there’s division in Iran? Or is that just paranoia after several recent weekend where Trump and JD Vance delivered big surprises? It’s hard to shake the sense there will be at least one more twist in this and that the risk-reward is now badly tilted towards disappointment. At the same time, would Trump do all this talking only to pivot immediately back to attacks?

Time will tell but the latest WSJ leak said an in person meeting was tentatively scheduled for Monday so that will be something to watch for but the main thing will be if ships actually keep moving through Hormuz, as some already have.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with an interview with CBS reiterating that the US will get Iran’s uranium.

“Our people, together with the Iranians are going to work together to go
get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States,” he said.

However, Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee Spokesman tells Al Jazeera they will not allow the removal of uranium from Iran, and the American statements on social media differ from reality.

Maybe this ultimately still ends with the uranium going to a third country but everything is being spun on all sides right now. Or maybe it’s all going to fall apart. Oil ticked a bit higher into settlement but WTI still finished down $10.84 to $83.85 or 11.45% in one of the all-time biggest one-day declines.

With Trump you always get the feeling there will be one more surprise and that he’s saving it for the weekend but there is certainly a lot of good news on the war today.

Presuming this gets sorted out, I expect more of a focus to emerge on supply chains, inventory restocking and restart times. There was a lot of damage in this war and it’s not easy to restart oil production in many fields. There are big questions about how aggressively ships will want to pass through Hormuz, though there is a report about 20 tankers on the way through now.

Generally, I think the market has this right but lots of good news is priced in and $83 oil isn’t exactly leaving much room for quick downside. I do see the huge head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart and that does point down to $60 but I just can’t see it given that 400 million barrels have been unproduced and there’s no way to make those re-appear.

In any case, we will have to iron out these talks and the market will remain jittery but the latest indications are that there will be talks on Monday in Pakistan.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil has ticked higher on some headlines tossing up some skepticism about a US-Iran deal.

Reuters cited a senior unnamed Iranian official:

• Significant differences remain, including on nuclear issues
• Serious talks required
• Keeping Strait of Hormuz open is conditional on adherence to ceasefire terms
• A preliminary deal could be reached within the coming days, with the possibility of extending the ceasefire
• A prelim deal could “create space” for talks on lifting sanctions and securing compensation for war damages
• Iran is ready to assure the world about the peaceful nature of its nuclear work if its demands are met

The S&P 500 has pulled back about 25 points from the highs but most of that was before this. Oil has also bounced from the lows.

Negotiations are always hardest at the end.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke with Axios and said:

“The
Iranians want to meet. They want to make a deal. I think a meeting will
probably take place over the weekend. I think we will get a deal in the
next day or two.”

It sounds like all the details have been worked out and Trump’s talk about Iran not getting its funds unfrozen sounds hollow. Just now the WSJ reports that the US told Iran it would get $20 billion if it hands over its stockpile of uranium. They cited people familiar.

Trump also touched on Israel and Lebanon:

“Israel has to stop. They can’t continue to blow buildings up. I am not gonna allow it,” he said.

We will see how much sway he has in that department.

Update: Trump tells the AFP there are no sticking points in the Iran deal.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Another message from Trump on Truth Social and another big indication that a peace deal is coming:

The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers –
No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is
in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work
with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate
manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are
PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you!
President DJT

That’s a pretty big surprise on Lebanon.

I’d imagine this ‘money changing hands’ bit on frozen Iranian funds is a bit of semantics. That money is in Qatar currently.

We’re sort of entering the spin zone here now as he doesn’t necessarily rule out ground attacks and incursions further into Lebanon either.

In any case, there’s no use overthinking it here as it’s all ‘pro-peace and pro-opening Hormuz’ and that’s all that matters for markets.

More:

Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from
NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY,
UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless
when needed, a Paper Tiger! President DJT

There is talk that European ships will be doing the de-mining operations. Update: Ok scrap that, Trump says that Iran, with the help of the USA, has removed or is removing all sea mines.

Also this:

Thank you to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar for your great bravery and help! President DONALD J. TRUMP

That’s sort of notable for who was left out: Kuwait and Oman among them.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump posts on Truth Social:

IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!

Oil has cratered on the announcement from Iran’s foreign minister:

That’s a big head and shoulders pattern.

The market has been sniffing out a TACO since the start of the month and it’s going much more smoothly than almost anyone hoped. There have really been no hiccups other than JD Vance leaving Pakistan but even that stunt was quickly downplayed.

Axios reports that a three-page MOU is under consideration that will deliver $20 billion to Iran in exchange for nuclear material likely being shipped to a third country.

The caveat here is that the Strait is open “for the remaining period of the ceasefire” but I take that as more of a formality. If they didn’t think a deal was very close, they wouldn’t be opening up anything.

There are some big market moves across the board on the peace trade with the euro up 61 pips to 1.1872 and USD/JPY down 87 pips to 158.32.

US 10-year yields are down 7.3 bps to 4.23% as the inflationary shock from the war is going to dissipate. The question now is how many ships will take Iran up on the offer and how quickly production can be restarted in the Middle East. It’s going to take a real effort to restock energy storage but from the sounds of things, we’re headed very quickly towards a comprehensive deal. The latest reports suggest in person meetings on Sunday in Pakistan and that’s looking more like it will be the finalization of a deal rather than negotiations.

Of course, these things are always toughest at the end so don’t rule out a hiccup or some profit taking ahead of the weekend. S&P 500 futures are up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is set for a 13th straight gain.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with another message:

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL
PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS
IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN
IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF
THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS
MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP

It’s odd that it’s still closed now that Iran has opened its side but it sounds like this is mostly a formality as a deal is likely to come very soon on ending the war.

WTI crude oil was last down $10.83 to $83.82.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is the headline we’ve been looking for for seven weeks.

On twitter, Araghchi writes:

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

It’s over.

Oil is falling rapidly on this as it looks like all the elements are falling into place for a peace deal. Negotiators are set to meet on Sunday in Pakistan but that’s starting to look more like a formality unless there is a big snag.

This follows a report saying that the US is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal. In terms of nuclear, it says:

Under
a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched
uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the U.S.,
and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international
monitoring.

The report also says the deal includes a voluntary moratorium on nuclear enrichment, what Trump called a very strong statement.

The same report also says that there has been “steady progress” in negotiations though “significant gaps remain”.

I will be keeping a very close eye on Trump’s Truth Social in the next hour or so.

Oil is getting absolutely wrecked on this headline as the speculative longs throw in the towel. WTI is down $9.65 to $85.04. I wouldn’t have thought that many longs were still hanging around but the surprise here might be the ‘completely open’ portion as it looks like it will be full-bore on the oil shipments. Obviously Iran thinks a deal is basically a done deal at this point, and has agreed to something they think the US supports. Because this is essentially dropping all their leverage.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 250.9K
• Single-detached homes- 4% m/m
• Multiple starts -3% m/m
• Seasonally adjusted starts -3%

“March housing starts data point to a continued loss of momentum in
housing construction, broadly in line with CMHC’s housing market
outlook. While actual starts increased compared to a year ago, this
largely reflects the exceptionally low level of construction activity in
the first quarter of last year,” said Mathieu Laberge, CMHC’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice‑President, Housing Insights.

Housing starts data in Canada is published monthly by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) through its Starts and Completions Survey. The data tracks the beginning of construction on new residential dwellings — both single-detached and multi-unit — across urban centres with populations of 10,000 or more, with rural areas estimated separately. CMHC reports both the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) and a six-month trend measure, the latter designed to smooth out the significant month-to-month volatility that characterizes multi-unit construction activity. The data is released on the eleventh business day of each month and is widely used by policymakers, the Bank of Canada, and the housing industry to assess the trajectory of new supply.

Canada recorded 259,028 total housing starts in 2025, up 5.6% from 2024 and the fifth-highest annual total on record, driven by record levels of rental apartment construction. However, momentum faded through the second half of the year, with the six-month trend declining for four consecutive months into January 2026.

In January 2026, the SAAR dropped 15% to 238,049 units from 280,668 in December, while the trend fell 3.5% to 254,794 units. February brought a partial rebound, with the SAAR rising 4.5% to 250,900 units and the trend essentially flat at 256,005. Actual starts in urban centres were up 10% year-over-year in February, with Vancouver posting a 60% increase and Montreal up 18%, while Toronto declined 28%. CMHC has cautioned that elevated construction costs, business uncertainty, and weakening condominium presale activity are expected to weigh on starts through 2026 and beyond.

Yesterday, the Canadian Real Estate Association downgraded its housing market forecast, in large part due to the oil price and rate spike on the war in Iran.

“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global
economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage
rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky
economic start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior
Economist. “2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward
momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up
first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year
has had to be revised downward. The timing of higher mortgage rates,
along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be
buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as
they wait for rates to come back down.”

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Axios reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.

It details:

One element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

S&P 500 futures are up 40 points, roughly doubling on the headlines.

Importantly, the report also says that there has been “steady progress” in negotiations though “significant gaps remain”.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It’s been that kind of week in European trading, where markets are left in a bit of a bind but keeping the steady optimism for the most part. US-Iran developments continue to be the key thing to watch out for and market players are hanging on to hope that there will be some good news ahead of the ceasefire deadline on 22 April next week.

In doing his part, US president Trump continues to fuel the optimism as he says the war will be over “very soon”. And there are multiple reports about both sides looking for further progress in general. However, it’s still a case of having to wait and see.

For now, markets are definitely running with the narrative that good news will eventually come. The only question is when exactly will we see a material shift in the geopolitical landscape? Is it going to be in the next week? Or is it going to be in two to three months from now? There’s a big difference there.

Risk trades are holding on to hope that peace talks will succeed and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon enough. I can see the case of the former being pushed hard but on the latter, it is doubtful that we will get a big change to the status quo any time soon. And that is a big concern, with market players perhaps underestimating the impact of a prolonged disruption to the strait.

S&P 500 futures are up another 0.2% today with European indices also holding modest gains on the session so far. That’s another signal that risk sentiment continues to ignore the potential downside risks to the reality of the situation.

As for major currencies, the dollar is steadier once again but not really doing all too much. EUR/USD keeps just below 1.1800 while USD/JPY sits just above 159.00 as we approach the final stages this week. Those levels are not too different from where we were in the past two days.

If anything, it shows that currency traders are still holding some reservations and limiting their exposure. That as to not underestimate the potential for peace talks to fall apart.

Looking to betting markets, we can also see the shift in optimism among the broader public and money players. The odds of a nuclear deal before 30 April has surged up to 44% now, after having been as low as 3% at the start of the month:

However, even betting players are not really all too optimistic about the situation with regards to the Strait of Hormuz. They’re only seeing 28% odds of traffic returning to normal in the strait before the end of the month:

Those odds do jump up to roughly 65% for a timeline by the end of May and then 76% by the end of June.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Oil prices remain under pressure amid US-Iran deal optimism. What’s next?
• Markets keep with the more optimistic view in the final stretch of the week
• Gold struggles to gain steam amid US-Iran optimism as neutral Fed caps momentum
• IEA chief Birol says release of more emergency oil reserves is under consideration
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• BoE’s Breeden: Iran war raises risk that vulnerabilities could crystallise
• Euro area trade balance moves back to surplus in February just before US-Iran conflict

Markets:

• Brent crude down 3% to $96.40
• WTI crude (May contract) down 3.5% to $91.30, WTI crude (June contract) down 3.5% to $88.00
• June contract for WTI has more open interest and volume, provides a better read on “front-month” price
• S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, major indices in Europe up 0.1% to 0.5%
• US dollar mixed but lightly changed across the board
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.30%
• Gold flat at $4,790, Silver up 1.1% to $79.30

It’s another slow session in Europe as markets are caught waiting on more US-Iran headlines before wanting to proceed.

But despite the trepidation, the steady optimism continues to flow this time around ahead of the weekend. Traders and investors look to be expecting good news to come, as peace talks are expected to show progress before the ceasefire deadline on 22 April.

Oil prices are sitting lower amid the better market mood, in spite of the fact that the Strait of Hormuz situation remains the same. The strait looks poised to enter its eighth straight week in de facto closure but market players are keeping the faith that the situation will be resolved sooner rather than later.

Brent crude is down by around 3% to $96.40 while “front-month” WTI crude is down 3.5% to $88.00 on the day. The June contract is arguably the better indicator of front-month pricing, with volume and open interest overtaking the May contract. The latter is still very much in play though, with the cutoff date only coming on 20 April next week.

In other markets, equities are continuing to fuel the optimism as investors push up stocks following Wall Street gains. The DAX is up 0.5% and CAC 40 up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.2% on the day as well.

As for major currencies, there wasn’t much action with the dollar kept on a tight leash and mostly little changed. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1795 while USD/JPY is flat at 159.15 on the day, not offering much.

Elsewhere, gold is flat at $4,790 while silver is up 1.1% to $79.30 as precious metals are also waiting to take a cue from the broader market mood.

With the weekend set to arrive, it’s all on whether there will be any positive/negative murmurs before markets take a breather from the chaos.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.