Articles

Deutsche Bank has lifted its 2026 gold forecast to an average of $4,000 an ounce, citing continued central bank buying, led by China, and the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• The new projection is up from the bank’s prior $3,700 call and reflects expectations that bullion’s premium to fair-value models will persist.
• Precious metals analyst Michael Hsueh said further upside is more likely than a correction, with central bank purchases potentially reaching 900 tons next year.
• Hsueh added that risks skew gold-bullish if the Fed’s independence is questioned, though Deutsche’s forecast does not formally include that scenario.
• The bank expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in 2026 after three cuts this year, though Trump’s tighter immigration policy could restrict labour supply and strengthen the case for more easing.
• Deutsche Bank also raised its 2026 silver forecast to an average of $45 an ounce, up from $40, with the market set for a fifth straight year of physical deficits.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was reported by Bloomberg to have listed two separate homes — one in New York and one in Massachusetts — as his “principal residence” when securing mortgages in 2007. The arrangement, similar to what President Donald Trump has controversially described as “mortgage fraud” in his push to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, was disclosed in filings with Bank of America.

Mortgage specialists told Bloomberg there was no evidence of misconduct in Bessent’s paperwork, noting that such inconsistencies are not uncommon. Bank of America reportedly did not depend on Bessent’s pledges and never expected him to occupy both properties as primary homes. Bessent’s lawyer, Alex Spiro, dismissed the report, saying the documents were completed properly nearly two decades ago and that the article itself confirmed this.

—

Bloomberg carried the report. I’m going to go out on not too much of a limb to wonder aloud if the guy Bessent threatened, Bill Pulte, Trump’s director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, leaked this info as revenge for Bessent’s bluster?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s jobs market looks set to remain broadly resilient even as the unemployment rate edges higher, according to the country’s major banks ahead of Thursday’s labour force data.

Commonwealth Bank expects a 20,000 rise in employment in August, with the participation rate steady, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at 4.2%. But it cautioned the figure could round up to 4.3%, given July’s rate sat at 4.24%. The release will also include the first-quarter 2025 population update.

Westpac struck a softer note, saying the labour market is re-entering a period of gradual weakening similar to a year ago. It has pencilled in a 15,000 increase in jobs, but sees the unemployment rate lifting back to 4.3% as momentum in the health and care sectors cools. “Employment growth has eased to a three-month average pace of 2% — not weak, but heading that way,” the bank said.

JP Morgan economists said a jobless rate of 4.3% would be in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts and therefore unlikely to shift the policy outlook. But they warned there is little room for further deterioration without prompting a more dovish tone from the RBA. Overall, they described the labour market as in balance, with jobs growth tracking population growth.

National Australia Bank also emphasised balance, noting that demand indicators remain healthy. While the care economy drove hiring in recent years, growth in that sector has now stalled, creating scope for the private sector to absorb new workers without re-igniting inflation pressures. “The labour market remains near balance and has not been a source of upward pressure on inflation over the past year or so,” NAB said.

—

A jobless rate at 4.3% in line with RBA forecasts likely leaves AUD muted

• for fixed interest, limited impact is expected as the data aligns with RBA projections; dovish risk if softening deepens
• for equities, a balanced labour market suggests wage-driven inflation pressure remains contained.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• FOMC interest rate decision: Federal Reserve cuts by 25 bps, as expected
• Sept Federal Reserve forecasts: Growth estimates bumped up and 2 more 2025 cuts coming
• The full statement from the September FOMC rate decision
• Powell: Recent indications show that GDP growth has moderated
• Powell Q&A: “I don’t think we can say” that policy no longer warrants a restrictive policy
• Powell: It’s really the risks to the labor market that were the focus of today’s decision
• Bank of Canada cuts rates by a quarter-point, as expected
• Bank of Canada Update: September vs July Statements Compared
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: There was a clear consensus to cut by 25 basis points
• US August housing starts 1.307M vs 1.365M expected
• ECBs Nagel: A meeting by meeting basis has proven successful
• Gundlach: Gold will ‘almost certainly’ close above $4000 before year end
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent once listed two homes as his ‘principal residence’
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate remains unchanged at 3.4%

Markets:

• S&P 500 down 0.1%
• WTI crude oil down 50-cents to $64.04
• US 10-year yields up 5.4 bps to 4.08%
• Gold down $32 to $3657
• USD leads, EUR lags

Ahead of the FOMC decision there were modest signs of profit taking as stock markets edged lower, the US dollar rose and gold dipped. As usual, it was mostly sideways trading until the decision.

The initial reaction to the Fed announcement was dovish as the median showed two more cuts this year but a second look began to reverse that. The shift was a narrow 10-9 one and tilted by Miran’s inclusion at the Fed. The bigger reversal came during Powell’s press conference. The market wanted to hear a strong shift towards the employment mandate but he downplayed the NFP benchmark revisions and highlighted immigration as the main driver of the changing jobs market.

A particularly notable headline was him calling it a ‘risk management’ cut and saying they will be data dependent going forward. He balanced that by saying inflation risks had diminished since April but there were a few minutes of very aggressive US equity selling.

After the press conference the temperature came down and the dip buyers waded in. That led to a roughly flat finish in US equities.

The FX moves were more-notable as USD/JPY was at 146.25 ahead of the FOMC, fell to 145.50 and is now trading at a session high of 147.02.

It usually takes some time for Fed moves to shake out. Current pricing is for 43.7 bps in easing before year end with that December meeting being a real wild-card. Historically though, when the Fed starts cutting, it tends to continue cutting.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We got rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada today but the commentary wasn’t dovish enough to keep the momentum going in stock markets. the main indexes finished slightly lower the well-above the lows shortly after Powell’s comment that it was a ‘risk management cut’.

Closing changes:

• S&P 500: -0.2%
• Nasdaq Comp: -0.4%
• DJIA: +0.5%
• Russell 2000: +0.4%
• Toronto TSX Comp: +0.1%

The intraday moves were the big ones. You can clearly see the action following the FOMC decision on the 1 minute chart.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

New Zealand economic growth data is expected not to impress. Q/q is estimated to have declined and while y/y should improve from Q1 flat is expected. The New Zealand dollar was shunted around overnight by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the response.

Later is the job data from Australia for August. Unlike the Fed the Reserve Bank of Australia is not concerned too much on the labour market right now. There is some slowing but unemployment is expected to remain steady.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Crude oil inventory at -9.285 million versus estimate of -0.857 million
• Gasoline inventories -2.347 million versus estimate of +0.068 million.
• Distillates build of 4.046 million versus estimate of a build of 0.975 million.
• Cushing drawdown of -0.298 million versus previous week of a drawdown of -0.365 million

The private data released late yesterday showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown of -3.420 million in crude oil inventories, but not as big as today’s number.

Gasoline stocks were also lower than expectations at -0.691 million, but not as low as the drawdown of -2.347 million from the EIA just released.

Below are the API data released from late yesterday:

The price of crude oil moved to a high of $64.61 shortly after the release, but has since rotated to the downside trading at $64.26 currently. Go figure.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Shares of ride-hailing service Lyft are the big winners in the pre-market today. They’re currently up 13% in volatile trading.

The gain comes after Waymo said it plans to launch its self-driving taxi service next year in
Nashville and it will partner with Lyft for the first time. Waymo appears to be testing different strategies as some cities use only Waymo’s ‘One’ app while in other cities (Atlanta and Austin) it’s partnered with Uber.

Lyft shares rose more than 20% but have given some back and is trading up 13% shortly after the open.

The market is infatuated with the robotaxi idea, putting huge multiples on the names in the space, including Tesla. The economics of the service are unproven and problems with security and cleaning are unsolved at scale.

Lyft “will provide end-to-end fleet management services including
vehicle readiness and maintenance, infrastructure, and depot operations
in Nashville,” for the Waymo fleet, the companies said.

Waymo is owned by Google, whose shares this week hit a record $250/share as they fight back for market share with ChatGPT after an impressive image app being paired with Gemini named Nano Banana.

Uber remains the ride-hailing leader with a market cap 25 times larger than Lyft.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior starts 1.428M
• Starts change -8.5% vs +5.2% prior
• US August building permits 1.312M vs 1.37M expected
• Permits change -3.7% vs -2.2% prior

This is a poor reading and it is near the bottom of the post-covid range. Rate cuts will start to stimulate US housing so long as 30-year yields come down. If the Fed gets too dovish, we could see curve steepening and in that case then current 6.5% rates are as good as we’re going to get.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Fed:

• FOMC Preview: Focus on the dot plot and Fed Chair Powell guidance
• Dissents and dot plots in focus for the Fed later in the day
• FOMC Hawks and Doves: A comprehensive overview
• Fed preview: Most banks expect 25 bp cut, some 50 bp bigger easing, bigger impact, move

Headlines:

• Gold cools from record highs with eyes on the Fed today
• China tells its tech companies to stop buying all of Nvidia’s AI chips – FT
• ECB’s de Guindos: The current interest rate is appropriate
• ECB’s Escriva: We need to be agile and ready to move in any direction on monetary policy
• ECB’s Stournaras: Soft landing achieved, but must remain flexible and ready to act
• UK August CPI +3.8% vs +3.8% y/y expected
• Eurozone August final CPI +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 12 September +29.7% vs +9.2% prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities little changed; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.016%
• Gold down 0.7% to $3,665.19
• WTI crude oil down 0.7% to $64.09
• Bitcoin down 0.5% to $116,347

The European trading session today is one filled with waiting and cautious anticipation ahead of the FOMC meeting decision later today.

The dollar kept steadier after stumbling heavily in trading yesterday, with EUR/USD recouping some light ground from around 1.1860 to 1.1835-40 levels during the session. But besides that, there is very little movement as traders are keeping a more tentative approach in the lead up to the Fed later.

Other major currencies are only seeing light changes in general against the greenback, all holding within 0.1% change on the day currently.

In the equities space, we are seeing stocks also hold a more cautious mood. US futures are marginally lower while European indices are now flattish for the most part after some light gains at the open. That reaffirms the more tentative mood overall as market players are all waiting on the Fed before committing to the next move.

Among the more notable movers today are commodities with precious metals being pushed lower amid some profit-taking activity. Gold is down 0.7% to $3,665 after briefly clipping $3,700 yesterday while silver is down over 2% to $41.63 after having neared the $43 level in the day before.

In terms of data, we had UK inflation meeting expectations and that will just reaffirm a policy pause by the BOE tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Today the Fed is expected to finally restart its journey towards the neutral rate after the last cut in December 2024. Let’s see what’s priced in by the market and what kind of surprises could trigger a repricing in expectations.

Statement

The Fed should acknowledge the weakening in the labour market while maintaining the lines about elevated inflation and uncertainty. No change to QT. In terms of votes, we should see a majority of participants voting for a 25 bps cut with two or three participants voting for a 50 bps reduction (Miran, Waller and Bowman). There might also be one participant voting to hold the rate steady (Schmid).

Potential surprises:

• 50 bps cut (very dovish)
• More than three members voting for 50 bps cut (dovish)
• No cut (very hawkish)
• No dissents for 25 bps cut (slightly hawkish)
• Only Miran voting for 50 bps (slightly hawkish)

*Note that whatever Miran does or says from now on, will likely be ignored by the market because of his political appointment.

Dot Plot

At this meeting we also get the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The focus will be on the dot plot and it will be compared to the current market pricing since this is what’s priced in. The market is pricing a total of 148 bps of easing by the end of 2026, with 68 bps in 2025. Therefore, the market is expecting 3 cuts in 2025 and 3 cuts in 2026. In June, the Fed projected 2 cuts in 2025 and 1 cut in 2026. The Fed is expected to match the market pricing for 2025 but could be more hawkish for 2026 by projecting just one or two cuts.

Potential surprises:

• Just one more cut in 2025 and anything lower than three cuts in 2026 (hawkish)
• Two more cuts in 2025 and four cuts in 2026 (dovish)
• Three more cuts in 2025 and three cuts in 2026 (very dovish)

Press Conference

This is where things will get interesting and where it’s harder to really get a consensus, but most agree that Powell will put more focus on the labour market given the recent weakness. Nonetheless, we have Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech as the baseline.

In fact, in August Powell already pivoted towards the employment side of the mandate, downplaying the risk of lasting inflation dynamic and higher wage growth setting by stating that “given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks, that outcome does not seem likely”.

Potential surprises:

• Powell makes a strong pledge to support the labour market in case it weakens further (dovish)
• Powell downplays the labour market weakness and puts more emphasis on inflation (hawkish)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Market index 386.1 vs 297.7 prior
• Purchase index 174.0 vs 169.1 prior
• Refinance index 1596.7 vs 1012.4 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.39% vs 6.49% prior

This is never a market moving release. Mortgage applications are generally inversely correlated to mortgage rates.

Having said that, this should be a little bit concerning for the Fed given that a slight fall in mortgage rates is leading to such a strong surge in demand.

After years of elevated mortgage rates and low demand for mortgages, there could be some type of FOMO for lower rates.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.