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The big news since the weekend is that we might be seeing the potential end to the US government shutdown. The Senate moved to approve the first vote for that to happen here, which now throws the ball back over to the House’s court. As a reminder, it’s been 40 days that the US government has closed down – with this being the longest one on record.

As things stand, House members are now notified that votes related to government funding are expected in the lower chamber some time this week. That after the Senate gets the funding measure past the final passage. Senate members will reconvene again later today at 1600 GMT.

US futures are sitting higher as such, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.8%. I mentioned last week that pointing fingers to the shutdown as being a key driver for the drag in the risk mood is not something I’d be inclined to do, and the same goes for any buying on the end of the shutdown.

However, the pick up in risk appetite on Friday because of that and what we’re seeing today certainly argues for it. But I would say, it’s more to do perhaps with alleviating funding/liquidity stress in markets. So in some convoluted way, the shutdown does matter – at least because of how long it has ran.

In other markets, the dollar is mixed with USD/JPY holding higher near 154.00 but perhaps owes to a weaker yen mostly. Japanese prime minister Takaichi continues to spread her wings as the big fiscal dove she is and that is weighing on the currency. Besides that, the aussie is leading amid risk gains with AUD/USD up 0.5% to back above 0.6520.

Meanwhile, we’re also seeing Bitcoin recover in surviving yet another test of the $100,000 mark to be up above $106,000 today. So, that’s another risk positive sign.

And after a bit of consolidation, it seems like dip buyers in gold are coming back in again with price nudging up to $4,053 – its highest in two weeks. As risk appetite picks up, it seems like dip buyers are also feeling more free. That is definitely an interesting point to be wary of.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As the shutdown is in day 38, the threat for Pres. Trump and the GOP is that suddenly the eye is off the ball and people are noticing. While the people are hurting and want to get paid and back to work (they will be paid at some point but work is slowing down), he is talking about Ukraine and Russia

Admittedly he is meeting with Hungary’s Orban. Nevertheless he says

• We will talk, trade, energy, Ukraine with Hungary’s Orban
• Looking at exemptions for Hungary from sanctions on Russian oil.
• Hungary’s Orban has not made a mistake on immigration
• We are talking about meetings with Putin
• Think EU should respect Hungary.
• The basic dispute with Russia is they don’t want to stop war in Ukraine
• Would like to keep meeting with Putin in Budapest
• We agree that war in Ukraine will end in not to distance future.
• Says Inflation is at a perfect number.

Hungary is reliant on Russian oil.

The thought was that to pressure Russia toward peace, you have to cut off the avenues for their oil.

So who knows, but what is more evident is the domestic US economy is under pressure from the government shutdown and the K economy really hurting the middle to lower class. In addition, Trump is not exactly winning overseas – there is still tension in the middle east, China is saying that rare earth agreement may not be the same as the US. So the losses are mounting. That could spell trouble down the road.

Maybe he has plans to run for the Pres. of the World in 2028?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• China suspends special port fees on US ships for one year
• The US Senate has approved the first vote needed to reopen government, 60-40 vote
• BoJ’s Nakagawa says the Bank expects to continue raising rates as economy, prices improve
• Satellite images show China’s missile buildup accelerating since 2020, CNN reports
• US suspends investigation of China targeting of maritime, logistics, shipbuilding sectors
• Wingtech shares jump as Beijing, Netherlands signal easing of Nexperia export dispute
• Buffett to release farewell letter Monday preparing to step down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO
• China’s gold holdings surge as ETFs and central bank boost reserves despite weaker demand
• Japan PM Takaichi says not ruling out a sales tax cut … in the future
• Goldman Sachs raises 2026 China growth outlook to 4.8% on export strength, policy support
• Gold is surging higher, closing in on US$4050 again … nope, above there now
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0856 (vs. estimate at 7.1175)
• BOJ edges closer to rate hike as board signals rising confidence in wage momentum
• Media sources – There are enough votes in the US Senate to end the shutdown
• Japan PM Takaichi to examine new govt fiscal target for future that looks at fiscal state
• Goldman Sachs says AI boom resembles 1997 tech cycle, not dotcom peak, with room to run
• Shutdown end in sight as centrist Democrats back Senate stopgap deal to reopen government
• UK firms expect 3% pay rises but warn AI could shrink jobs, CIPD survey shows
• BoJ Summary of Oct meeting highlights the importance of wages to future rate hikes
• RBA’s Hauser says its not mad to think future rate cuts would be coming
• Japan’s Takaichi abandons annual budget target, takes softer fiscal consolidation stance
• RBA’s Hauser says getting inflation down will require policy to be restrictive
• Weekend – China suspends export ban on gallium, germanium and other critical metals to US
• JPY and Nikkei traders heads up – BOJ policy board member Nakagawa is speaking soon
• Some media reports of reopening the US government
• Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaking soon – economic outlook
• Japan’s Nikkei: “Yen surge scenario fades as banks revise outlook downward”
• Duffy warns U.S. air travel will worsen before holidays as FAA cuts expand amid shutdown
• Williams says December Fed a balancing act: sticky high inflation vs. consumer stress
• Goldman Sachs sees U.S. investors piling into Japan as Nikkei outshines S&P 500
• Sunday session for US Senate as lawmakers seek band aid funding for 10% of government
• Famed Short Trader Michael Burry Bets Against Palantir. Is He Profitable?
• Bessent says shut down impact getting worse for economy, Hasset says recession possible
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 10 November 2025
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: China CPI and Activity Data, UK & Aussie Jobs, BoJ SOO
• China October inflation data: CPI 0.2% y/y (expected 0%), PPI -2.1% y/y (expected -2.2%)

U.S. shutdown end in sight

The U.S. government shutdown looks close to ending after the Senate voted 60–40 to advance a bill — a major breakthrough toward reopening federal operations. Eight Senate Democrats joined the Republican majority in backing the stopgap deal, which would fund the government through January 30 and resume payments to states.

Passage in the House now appears likely, even though key Democratic leaders have voiced opposition and conservative Republicans are pushing for a longer funding extension through September 30. Those objections appear largely theatrical, the economic and political damage seems to have reached a tipping point.

House members have been told to be ready to return to Washington with 36 hours’ notice, down from 48 hours previously, suggesting the reopening is being hurried along. The chamber has not been in session for over 50 days, since its last vote on September 19.

Bank of Japan edges closer to rate hike

The BOJ’s October Summary of Opinions showed policymakers edging toward another rate hike if inflation and wage trends hold. Several members said conditions for a move are “almost met,” while others urged patience until wage behaviour and global conditions stabilise.

Some warned against waiting too long, arguing the bank should move toward a neutral rate to avoid sharper action later. The tone reinforces a cautious but steady shift toward policy normalisation.

RBA’s Hauser signals limited scope for further rate cuts

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said Australia’s economy remains unusually tight, limiting scope for near-term easing. Demand is still above potential output, meaning restrictive settings are needed to bring inflation back to target.

The RBA kept its cash rate at 3.6% last week after three cuts earlier this year. Hauser said inflation is expected to stay above the 2–3% target band until at least mid-2026, adding that stronger productivity and new investment are needed to expand capacity and contain price pressures.

China suspends gallium export ban — further signs of easing U.S. tensions

China suspended export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and antimony, effectively ending a year-long ban on shipments to the U.S. The suspension, effective through November 2026, also pauses stricter checks on graphite exports. It follows similar easing of curbs on rare-earth and lithium materials, signalling a thaw in trade tensions and offering relief for semiconductor and defence supply chains.
Additional goodwill steps included Washington’s suspension of its investigation into China’s targeting of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and Beijing’s decision to suspend port fees on U.S.-linked vessels for a year.

China inflation and U.S. data

China’s October CPI turned positive while PPI inflation eased slightly — reinforcing signs of mild disinflation without renewed deflationary pressure.

In the U.S., the delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties surged to 11.8%, an all-time high. Delinquencies are now up 10 percentage points in just three years, highlighting ongoing stress in U.S. commercial real estate.

Market moves

FX markets opened with a yen gap weaker, pushing USD/JPY toward 154.00, as traders reacted to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plan to drop Japan’s annual primary budget balance target in favour of a multi-year framework. The pro-spending stance, coupled with a new stimulus package, added to expectations of looser fiscal policy.

USD/CHF also firmed, though to a lesser extent.

Commodity currencies gained, with the AUD and CAD lifted by improving China-U.S. relations.

EUR/USD traded narrowly.

Gold surged above US$4,050, while optimism over the shutdown resolution and China-U.S. thaw boosted broader commodities.

Equities rallied, with U.S. index futures extending Friday’s gains, and Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies also moving higher.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.15%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +0.51%
• Shanghai
  Composite 0%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.66%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China will suspend port fees levied on U.S.-linked vessels for a year, its transport ministry said on Monday.

Its been a steady drip-feed of news indicating better relations between the two countries.

• Weekend – China suspends export ban on gallium, germanium and other critical metals to US
• US suspends investigation of China targeting of maritime, logistics, shipbuilding sectors

The developments have been a tailwind for China and China-proxy trades, such as AUD.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The US Senate has approved the first vote needed to reopen government, in a 60-40 vote.

Once all votes in the Senate are complete, which seems a formality now this has passed, the House will need to vote.

As I said earlier, I expect it’ll pass there too and the shut down should end within days.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China has dramatically expanded its missile production network since 2020, marking what analysts describe as the early phase of a new arms race with the United States, according to a CNN investigation.

A CNN analysis of satellite images, official maps and government filings found that more than 60% of 136 facilities linked to missile manufacturing or China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force — which oversees the country’s nuclear arsenal — have undergone major expansion since early 2020.

The review showed that factories, research sites, and testing centres have collectively added more than 21 million square feet (2 million square metres) of new floor space between 2020 and late 2025. Satellite images reveal new towers, bunkers, and berms consistent with advanced weapons development, and in some cases, visible missile components.

The rapid build-up contrasts sharply with U.S. production constraints, underscoring Beijing’s intent to strengthen its deterrence capabilities and regional dominance. Analysts say the scale and pace of expansion suggest China is investing heavily to enhance both its nuclear and conventional missile forces — potentially reshaping the military balance in Asia and complicating Washington’s strategic calculus.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

USTR:

• The office of USTR announced suspension of action in Section 301 investigation of China’s targeting of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance
• Action will be suspended for one year, and as of 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on November 10, 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan PM Takaichi:

• Not ruling out sales tax cut as option in future, but immediate priority is to compile package of steps to cushion blow from rising cost of living
• Changing sales tax rate would take time, so decision on whether to do so would need to take into account wage, inflation levels at the time

Japan’s government will need all the revenue it can get to fund the stimulus the new PM is planning.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs has raised its growth outlook for China, citing resilient exports, easing U.S.–China trade tensions, and renewed policy momentum from Beijing’s latest five-year plan.

Hui Shan, Goldman’s chief China economist, said the bank now expects China’s real GDP to rise 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027

• up from earlier forecasts of 4.3% and 4.0%

marking the firm’s largest upgrade since 2019.

The revision follows the late-October meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, which de-escalated trade tensions and led to tariff reductions. Shan said the meeting signalled that China now wields meaningful leverage in trade talks, particularly through control of rare-earth exports, and that the U.S. may find it harder to impose further tariffs.

Goldman also cited the outcomes of China’s recent Fourth Plenum and its 15th Five-Year Plan, which emphasise technology self-reliance and industrial competitiveness. Policymakers aim to double down on high-tech manufacturing and innovation as drivers of growth, replacing reliance on property and infrastructure. While the strategy may boost exports and corporate profits quickly, Shan warned it may take longer to lift household consumption.

The bank sees the combination of stronger exports, technological upgrading, and easing geopolitical pressure as key to sustaining momentum. Goldman also noted that the rise of artificial intelligence could lift China’s long-term growth potential by as much as 8% over the next decade, helping offset demographic and structural headwinds.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There are at least 8 votes from Senate Democratic caucus in favor of a negotiated deal to end shutdown

Reuters citing unnamed source. This is enough to end the shut down.

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The Senate is in recess until 8pm US Eastern time. It looks like there are now plenty enough votes to reopen the government. The bill will have to go to the House of course, and there is plenty of noise being made about how it’ll face opposition there. I suspect it’ll gt passed, there seems to be enough pressure on now.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan PM Takaichi:

• Won’t ditch govt primary balance target for fiscal 2025, but will examine new govt fiscal target for future that looks at fiscal state in scope of several years

Earlier:

• Japan’s Takaichi abandons annual budget target, takes softer fiscal consolidation stance

Despite what we hear from the pollies in Japan on a day to day basis this new government is proposing a lot of stimulus for the Japanese economy. Keep that in mind.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

British employers expect to raise pay by around 3% over the next year, but growing use of artificial intelligence could reduce headcount, according to a new survey that also highlighted weaker hiring intentions and concern over government tax policy.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said overall recruitment plans are among the weakest since the pandemic, with hiring especially soft in the public sector.

• One in six firms expects AI adoption to shrink their workforce over the coming year, with a quarter of those anticipating job cuts of more than 10%.
• Clerical, junior managerial, and administrative roles are seen as most at risk.

CIPD senior economist James Cockett warned that the government’s recent rise in employers’ social security contributions has already cooled hiring, and urged Finance Minister Rachel Reeves to avoid further tax measures that could worsen the slowdown. He called for more investment in workforce skills to help employees adapt to AI-driven change.

The survey, conducted between September 19 and October 14, showed median expected pay rises holding at 3% for a sixth straight quarter.

• By contrast, a Bank of England survey found firms predicting 3.7% wage growth in the three months to October, while official data due Tuesday are expected to show annual regular pay rising 4.6% in the latest quarter.

—

The CIPD’s survey adds to signs of cooling labour demand as firms balance steady wage growth with rising automation. Slower hiring could reinforce the Bank of England’s case for easing rates, though persistent pay pressures may complicate its December decision.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.