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The Middle east news today was somewhat quiet as Pres. Trump met with China’s Xi.

• Saudi Arabia had secretive strikes Iran after Iran attacked the energy facilities and civilian infrastructure – Wall Street Journal

Regarding Isreal and Lebanon talks:

• There is no serious breakthroughs in the peace negotiations
• Lebanon does not have much to offer regarding security issues raised in the negotiations.

Trump departs China on Friday, following a final tea and working lunch with Xi. So there are still a few more hours of meetings to go. The US president heads back to Washington after the meetings.

Regarding China, the Trump and Xi’s talks lasted about 2 hours and 15 minutes, with Trump also visiting the Temple of Heaven alongside Xi afterward. Trump was accompanied by a who’s-who of American CEOs including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang.

Trade
The two sides described “overall balanced and positive outcomes” from preparatory trade talks in South Korea led by Treasury Secretary Bessent, with Xi saying “China’s door to opening up will only open wider.” Expected deal announcements included soybeans and aircraft. The Pres. did say that China will purchase 200 Boeing Big Jets but it is unclear as to the whether it was contracted or a Letter of intent. Also the market was looking for a number bigger than that amount.

Iran — The Elephant in the Room
Trump said Xi offered help resolving the Iran war, though Secretary of State Rubio said the US isn’t seeking assistance from Beijing. Both leaders agreed on the importance of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Taiwan — Xi’s Warning
Xi warned that Taiwan is “the most important issue in China-US relations” and could create a “very dangerous situation” if mishandled. Rubio responded that US policy on Taiwan is “unchanged.

The Broader Tone
Xi hailed the US-China relationship as the world’s most consequential, telling Trump: “We must make it work and never mess it up.”

Meanwhile, the White House informed Tel Aviv that Trump might orders strikes inside Iran. I would suspect all remains quiet until Trump’s plane is “wheel’s up” and on his way back to the US.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Cerebras (CBRS) IPO started trading at $385. The IPO price was set at $185 raising $5.5B at the IPO price. Investor in at the IPO price are already up 108.11%.

Cerebras is an AI chip designer that competes with Nvidia, known for its Wafer-Scale Engine (WSE) — a single chip designed to handle the computational demands of large language models more efficiently than clusters of traditional GPUs. Rather than cutting many small chips from a silicon wafer like the rest of the industry, the WSE-3 uses the entire wafer as a single chip — roughly 57 times larger than the largest competing GPU die — giving it vastly more on-chip memory, more processing cores, and higher interconnect bandwidth, all without the latency of communicating across a multi-chip GPU cluster. The core pitch is speed: fewer systems, less power, less cooling infrastructure — what Cerebras calls the fastest AI inference infrastructure in the world.

The IPO

Cerebras raised $5.55 billion in its IPO, pricing shares at $185 each — well above the marketed range of $150–$160 — making it the largest IPO of the past 12 months. At the IPO price, Cerebras is valued at $56.4 billion on a fully diluted basis, with the stock trading on Nasdaq under ticker symbol CBRS. At the current price that value is now well over $100B

The Numbers

Cerebras reported $510 million in 2025 revenue, up 76% year-over-year, with a remarkable 47% net margin — $238 million in net income — which is rare for an IPO-stage tech company. The deal was massively oversubscribed, with 20x oversubscription at the original price range before the price was raised multiple times.

Key Customers & Deals

OpenAI signed a multiyear $10 billion deal with Cerebras for 750 megawatts of compute capacity, then doubled down with a $20 billion chip purchase agreement. AWS also agreed to deploy Cerebras’ CS-3 system on Amazon Bedrock.

Key Risks

Almost 90% of Cerebras’ revenue stems from two customers, and at roughly 95x 2025 sales, the valuation prices the company to perfection with no margin for error. Competition from Nvidia remains the biggest long-term threat.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NZDUSD is trading near session lows and pressing against the bottom of a key swing area between 0.5918 and 0.5935 — a zone that previously acted as resistance and, more recently, turned into support. Also within that area sits the 200-hour moving average at 0.5934, adding to its technical importance.

If sellers can break below the 0.5918 floor with momentum, the next downside target comes into focus near the 0.5900 level, where the 50% midpoint of the rally from the April 29 low is found at 0.59019. A sustained move below that broader support zone could open the door for a deeper decline toward 0.5830–0.5858 — an area where the pair spent much of its time trading between April 13 and May 6.

Conversely, if buyers can defend support near 0.5918, the focus shifts back higher toward the 200-hour moving average at 0.5934 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.5944. Moving above those levels would give buyers more control and increase the bullish momentum.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Speaking on a Fox Interview:

• China would not give Iran military equipment
• China agreed to order 200 Boeing jets
• Xi offered to help on Iran
• Xi said he would like to continue to buy oil from Iran.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Dan Ives: Poland could become Europe’s AI breakout story

Just heard one of my favorite analysts. An incredible wise, experienced, insightful and clear human that I think people shuld listen to.

Dan Ives of Wedbush believes Europe is at risk of falling further behind in the global technology race unless it becomes more supportive of AI innovation, entrepreneurs, and regulatory reform.

Speaking to Bloomberg while traveling in Europe and visiting an AI conference, Ives warned that the continent has already spent years lagging behind other major technology markets. In his view, the next phase of AI development could widen that gap if Europe fails to create a more attractive environment for builders, investors, and fast-moving technology companies.

Ives suggested that a major battle is taking place between innovators and regulators. If Europe does not adapt, he said, many entrepreneurs and AI-focused companies may look elsewhere, including the Middle East, the U.S., and other global markets that are moving more aggressively to attract technology investment.

One country, however, stood out in Ives’ comments: Poland

According to Ives, Poland may be the European country best positioned to “break out” in AI. He described Poland as showing some of the clearest vision in Europe when it comes to artificial intelligence and the broader technology opportunity.

That is notable because most investors traditionally focus on larger European financial and technology centers such as Frankfurt, Paris, and London. Ives’ focus on Poland suggests that the AI investment map in Europe may be expanding beyond the usual hubs.

For investors and technology watchers, the message is clear: Europe still faces a major AI competitiveness challenge, but Poland may be emerging as one of the more interesting countries to watch in the next stage of the AI race.

My take is even harsher: Other European leaders, I hope you’re waking up. Start toning down the near obsession with sustainabilty and push harder on the strategic growth drivers before being disrupted.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 0.4%
• Total business inventories increased 0.9% in March to $2.710 trillion.
• Inventories were up 2.0% from a year earlier, but continued to trail the pace of sales growth.
• Combined distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments totaled $2.059 trillion in March.
• Sales increased 2.1% from February 2026
• The inventories-to-sales ratio declined to 1.32 in March from 1.38 in March 2025.
• The lower inventories-to-sales ratio suggests businesses are selling goods more efficiently, with demand remaining firm relative to inventory levels
• Sales were up 7.1% from March 2025, highlighting continued strength in business activity.

The data are adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences, but not for inflation. Inventories are rising but so are sales which helped to lower the inventory to sales ratio which is trending lower. That could lead to supply shock and higher prices if it gets out of hand.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• China president Xi says mutual respect is key to stable US-China ties
• China purchases of soybeans are all taken care of, says Bessent
• Trump and Xi had a good meeting, says White House official
• USD/JPY flirts with a key upside breakout as yen’s intervention-led gains continue to fade
• Nasdaq analysis today after Trump and Xi met
• ECB’s Kazaks: Preserving anchored inflation expectations is the priority for ECB policy
• BOJ policymaker Masu warns that yen depreciation may raise inflation expectations
• Spain inflation eases a little in April but still much higher than before US-Iran conflict
• UK Q1 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected
• China new bank loans disappoint in April as sluggish start to the year continues

Markets:

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% on the day
• WTI crude down 0.2% to $100.80 as Middle East conflict continues to brew
• European stocks higher, DAX up by 1.3% in holiday-thin trading
• Major currencies subdued, US dollar lightly changed across the board
• US 10-year yields down 3.8 bps to 4.44%
• Gold up 0.3% to $4,703 while silver is down 1.1% to $86.98
• Bitcoin down 0.4% to $79,328

The focus and attention in markets has moved further east today, with all eyes on US president Trump’s visit to Beijing. He met with China president Xi Jinping as the two leaders sat down to talk about a host of issues but mainly on trade and maintaining cordial relations amid a time of global economic turbulence.

It is all mostly for show, even if there will be some deals to be struck – likely on agriculture and perhaps Boeing airplanes. Besides that, we should see some opening up in terms of business deals such as on AI and microchips, as well as investment outlays.

But all in all, the whole point of this is to give some reassurance that the two major powers are no longer locking horns – for now at least – after the tariffs war last year.

Still, one can easily dissect the different narratives put out by each side following the meeting.

The US communique focused more on trade issues and working on business/investment ties. Meanwhile, China mostly stuck to talking about a more stable relationship while warning the US that there could be conflict if Washington mishandles the situation in Taiwan. On the latter, China president Xi labeled that as “the most critical issue” involving bilateral ties currently.

As markets digested the meeting, we’re seeing a steadier mood hold for the most part. European stocks are sitting higher despite a working holiday in the likes of Germany and France. The DAX is up 1.3% and CAC 40 up 0.8% on the day. Meanwhile, US futures are also looking upbeat with S&P 500 futures up 0.3% currently.

Oil prices were not up to much and are keeping just a little lower on the day, as US-Iran tensions continue to simmer in the background. WTI crude is down 0.2% to $100.80 with little fresh developments to work with.

In the major currencies space, there wasn’t much to talk about with it being a rather subdued day. The dollar is little changed across the board with no key drivers to move the needle today.

As for precious metals, we’re seeing a slightly more mixed picture with gold up 0.3% to $4,703 and silver down 1.1% to $86.98. There’s not a whole lot in it as markets will look to start positioning ahead of the weekend soon enough.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The inflation scare is a being shown in the imported export price data for the month of April

• import prices for April +1.9% versus 1.0% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.9% from 0.8% previously reported.
• Export prices for April +3.3% versus 1.1% expected. Prior month revised lower to 1.5% from 1.6% previously reported

Details from Import prices:

• U.S. import prices rose +1.9% in April after gains of +0.9% in March and +1.0% in February.
• Import prices year-over-year increased +4.2%, the largest annual gain since October 2022.
• Fuel import prices surged +16.3% in April after rising +10.0% in March.
• The monthly increase in fuel prices was the largest since March 2022 (+17.8%).
• Import petroleum and petroleum product prices climbed +19.0% in April.
• Import natural gas prices fell -22.1% in April.
• Fuel import prices year-over-year increased +20.0%.
• Petroleum and petroleum product prices rose +22.0% year-over-year.
• Import natural gas prices were up just +0.1% year-over-year.
• Nonfuel import prices increased +0.8% in April after a +0.2% gain in March.
• Nonfuel import prices year-over-year rose +2.9%, the largest annual increase since October 2022.
• Higher prices for capital goods, nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods excluding autos, and foods/beverages contributed to the increase.
• Lower prices for automotive vehicles, parts, and engines partially offset the gains.

Details of the export prices:

• U.S. export prices increased +3.3% in April.
• Export prices year-over-year rose +8.8%, the largest annual increase since September 2022 (+9.8%).
• Agricultural export prices increased +1.6% in April after a +0.6% rise in March.
• The April increase was the largest monthly gain since October 2024 (+2.1%).
• Higher prices for fruit and meat helped drive the increase.
• Agricultural export prices year-over-year rose +4.3%, led by higher prices for soybeans and meat.
• Nonagricultural export prices increased +3.4% in April after gains of +1.6% in March and +2.1% in February.
• Nonagricultural export prices year-over-year rose +9.3%.
• Higher prices for industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and consumer goods excluding autos drove the increase.
• Lower prices for automotive vehicles, parts, and engines partially offset the gains.
• Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices jumped +7.3% in April after a +3.8% increase in March.
• Higher prices for petroleum and chemicals more than offset lower prices for nonferrous metals.
• Capital goods export prices increased +0.7% in April.
• Higher prices for computers, semiconductors, and industrial machinery offset lower prices for civilian aircraft and aircraft parts.
• Consumer goods export prices excluding autos increased +0.5% in April.
• Export automotive vehicle, parts, and engine prices fell -0.1%, the first monthly decline since July 2025

With the CPI and the PPI misbehaving in, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has an inflation problem to start his term. Talk from Fed officials yesterday was characterized by “inflation is too high” views.

Meanwhile the US yields are lower today with 2 year -2.5 basis points and 10 year down -3.6 basis points.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 1.7% revised lower to 1.6%
• Retail sales 0.5% vs 0.5% estimate
• Ex Auto 0.7% vs 0.6% estimate. Prior 1.9%
• Ex Gas and Auto 0.5% vs 0.6% last month. Prior month 0.7% revised higher from 0.6%
• Control group 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Prior revised higher to 0.8% from 0.7%. The control group feeds into the US GDP
• YoY retail sales are up 4.9% up 0.5% from last month

The data for retail sales coming off a strong month, remained strong this month. Note that the retail sales are NOT adjusted for inflation. So if prices are going higher, retail sales goes higher. We know prices are higher.

What does the Retail Sales report measure?

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest monthly snapshot of consumer spending across retail sectors. Released approximately two weeks after the end of each reference month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report measures sales at retail and food service establishments, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes.

The data serves as a critical indicator of consumer demand and economic health, tracking thirteen major retail categories from motor vehicles and electronics to food services and nonstore retailers. The report includes both headline retail sales and “retail control” sales, which exclude more volatile categories like autos, gasoline, and building materials, providing a cleaner measure of underlying consumer spending that feeds into GDP calculations.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.0% (revised to +2.4%)

Wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 1.9% to $89.0 billion in March. Sales increased in five of the seven subsectors, representing 79.6% of total wholesale sales.

The largest increase came from the machinery, equipment and supplies subsector. Wholesale sales were 3.3% higher in March than in the same month one year earlier. In volume terms, wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) increased 1.7% in March.

Wholesale sales were 1.8% higher in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025.

Canada’s wholesale trade data primarily measures the monthly sales and inventory levels of businesses that act as intermediaries between manufacturers and retailers or other commercial and institutional clients. Collected by Statistics Canada through the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey (MWTS), this data is a key indicator of the health and performance of the Canadian economy.

The sales metric tracks the total value of goods sold by wholesalers, reflecting the volume of domestic and international demand for products before they reach the consumer market. These sales are categorized by various subsectors, such as motor vehicles and parts, building materials, food and beverages, and personal and household goods. This breakdown allows economists to identify which industries are driving growth or experiencing declines.

The inventory metric measures the value of goods owned by wholesalers and intended for resale at the end of the month. Monitoring inventory levels helps determine whether businesses are stockpiling goods in anticipation of higher demand or if products are sitting on shelves due to a slowdown in sales. This relationship between sales and inventories, known as the inventory-to-sales ratio, is used to predict future production trends and potential shifts in the business cycle.

The data covers statistical establishments across Canada classified under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). It includes both incorporated and unincorporated businesses with employees. By providing a snapshot of the wholesale sector, which accounts for approximately 5% to 6% of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product, the data serves as a vital input for calculating the national GDP and helps government agencies and private investors make informed decisions about economic policy and market performance.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior week 200K (revised to 199K)
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9
• Four-week moving average 203.75K vs 203.0K prior (revised
  from 203.25K)
• Continuing claims 1,782K vs 1,790K expected
• Prior continuing claims 1,766K (revised to 1,758K)
• Four-week moving average continuing claims 1,781K vs
  1,787.75K prior (revised to 1,787.75K)
• Insured unemployment rate 1.2% vs 1.1% prior (revised down
  from 1.2%)
• Largest state increases in initial claims (NSA, week
  ending May 9): Florida (+2,395), Texas (+2,007), Kentucky (+1,744),
  Pennsylvania (+1,166), New York (+1,270)
• Largest state decreases: California (-872), Michigan
  (-701), New Hampshire (-625), Rhode Island (-189), Missouri (-151)

Initial claims popped 12K off a downward-revised 199K base,
the highest weekly print since early April but still well within the recent
range. The four-week average ticked up only marginally to 203.75K, which is
running below the year-ago comparable of 229.25K.

On the unadjusted side, actual claims rose by 10,258 to
190,571 when the seasonals had only expected a 199 increase, which accounts for
the larger seasonally adjusted jump. Comparable week in 2025 was 203,579, so
the year-over-year comparison remains favorable.

Continuing claims rose 24K to 1.782M, though the prior week
was revised down by 8K. The four-week average actually fell to 1.781M, the
lowest in the recent run. Year-ago continuing claims stood at 1.884M.

Federal employee initial claims were 392 for the week
ending May 2, down 46. Newly discharged veterans claims were 383, up 12.
Continued claims for former federal civilian employees totaled 7,820, down 850
on the week but still running above the year-ago figure of 6,570.

The highest insured unemployment rates were in Rhode Island
(2.3), Massachusetts (2.2), New Jersey (2.2), Washington (2.1) and California
(2.0).

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Discussed purchases, will talk about board of trade
• We are trying to balance trade out
• US has a stronger position because of our trade deficit with China
• Will also discuss board of investments, that will cover non-strategic and non-sensitive areas where China can invest
• Think we’re going to see large Boeing orders
• Also talked about China buying more energy today
• Thinks China will do what it can on the Strait of Hormuz
• The reopening of the strait benefits China
• Believes that China will work behind the scenes to the best of their capabilities

On the headline remark, we’ve been here one too many a time. It has been an issue for more than a decade already. Anyone can still remember the Phase One trade deal? Well, that was pretty much a joke at the end of the day and I don’t see any reason why this won’t turn out to be the same.

China will surely offer up a couple of gestures of goodwill in stepping up agricultural purchases for a few months, before returning back to the status quo again. And in the case of soybeans, they’ll be looking back to Brazil again in no time surely.

Again, whatever that the two sides are discussing here are mainly for show. They need to tell the world that they have something to show for after the meeting this week. But come what may, it’s all just to maintain some sense of a cordial relationship for now after having seen things escalate last year due to the tariffs war.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.