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For the economic schedule, the Bureau of economic analysis or BEA says that the Q3 GDP advance estimate has been canceled with the 2nd estimate rescheduled although no date yet has been set.

Earlier today, the BEA also said that US PCE and personal income report for September has been rescheduled for December 5 .

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed has continued to forecast Q3 GDP growth from existing data as it trickles in. They see the Q3 growth at 4.2% in their lowest estimate saying,

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 21, unchanged from November 19 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Association of Realtors, a slight decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.8 percent to 4.9 percent..

Expectations are that the 4th quarter growth will be slower as a result of the government shutdown.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

For what it’s worth, August data for manufacturing activity is revised lower:

• Industrial production revised to -0.1% from 0.1%
• Capacity utilization revised to 75.8% from 77.4%.
• Manufacturing output revised to 0.1% from 0.2%

The Federal Reserve also issued annual benchmark revisions to the US industrial production capacity utilization data.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month -5.00
• Dallas Fed manufacturing business index for November -10.4
• Output index 20.5 versus 5.2 in October

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

State media is reporting that:

• China’s Pres. Xi and US Pres. Trump held talks.
• Both sides should expand list of cooperation
• Xi clarified China’s position on Taiwan issue
• Xi tells Trump return of Taiwan to China an important part of post-war international order
• Should strive for more progress in bilateral ties
• Should open new space for cooperation
• two leaders talked about Ukraine crisis
• On Ukraine crisis urges all parties to reduce differences.
• China, US should jointly safeguard victorious outcome of World War II

With Trump rating and low, there is a focus on the US economy and that is connected to China. Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that

Despite the massive amount of money being made by the United States of America, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, as a direct result of Tariffs being charged to other countries, the full benefit of the Tariffs has not yet been calculated in that many of the buyers of goods and products, in order to avoid paying the Tariffs in the short term, “STOCK UP” by purchasing far more inventory than they can use. That heavy inventory purchase is now, however, wearing thin, and soon Tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to, without avoidance, and the amounts payable to the USA will SKYROCKET, over and above the already historic levels of dollars received. These payments will be RECORD SETTING, and put our Nation on a new and unprecedented course. We are already the “hottest” Country anywhere in the World, but this Tariff POWER will bring America National Security and Wealth the likes of which has never been seen before. Those opposing us are serving hostile foreign interests that are not aligned with the success, safety and prosperity of the USA. They couldn’t care less about us. I look so much forward to the United States Supreme Court’s decision on this urgent and time sensitive matter so that we can continue, in an uninterrupted manner to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT

His focus on revenues seems good, but the other countries may or may not pay. If they lower prices and eat the cost of exports, they will effectively pay. If the importer pays the tariff and eats the cost, that is good. If the importers pay the tariff and raise prices that is not good for inflation even if it is one off. People not only want lower inflation (change in prices over time) but lower prices.(i.e. lower prices for goods and services).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

EU Sefcovic:

• EU team set to go to Washington to tackle various issues
• EU set priority on steel, including tackling overcapacity for EU.
• Conditions in place to launch negotiations on US steel tariffs.

Meanwhile US commerce Sec.Lutnick is also speaking and says:

• US can put forward steel deal
• Our suggestion is for the EU to find a way to have balanced digital set of rules

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Kremlin Aide Ushakov:

• Many provisions of US drafted Ukraine peace plan seem acceptable.
• Some provisions of US drafted peace plan that required detailed discussion.
• European counterproposals on Ukraine peace plan seem at 1st glance completely unconstructive and do not work for Russia.

And therein lies the rub.

Europe does not like the plan and resent US taking the lead without their involvement.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• US futures cut gains in the run up to the Wall Street open later
• The risk mood keeps the calm to start the new week, for now at least
• Gold Technical Analysis: The rangebound price action continues amid rate cut uncertainty
• If court strikes down tariffs, there will be new actions imminently – Lutnick
• EU trade chief says had productive talks with US camp
• Germany November Ifo business climate index 88.1 vs 88.5 expected
• Reminder: It will be a bit of a holiday-shortened trading week
• Reminder: The Fed blackout period starts this Saturday but a rate cut is now more likely

Markets:

• EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.044%
• Gold up 0.4% to $4,083.16
• WTI crude oil down 0.1% to $58.03
• Bitcoin down 1.0% to $85,912

The session was a relatively quiet one to start the new week as market players are waiting to see if there will be any follow up to the late rebound in Wall Street from Friday. The good news is that the positive mood is holding up somewhat, though there were some nerves as US futures cut gains to nearly flat levels at one point in the past two hours.

All eyes are still on the risk mood, with questions surrounding the AI bubble and valuations especially after the recent happenings last week that saw Nvidia earnings beat (but not without some caveats here) and the release of Google’s Gemini 3 model.

For now though, things are keeping calmer but it’s still early in the week with month-end also set to approach soon enough. And as a reminder, it will be a holiday-shortened week amid the Thanksgiving holidays.

In FX, there wasn’t much notable action with only the euro picking up a little to start the week. EUR/USD moved up from 1.1510 to 1.1550 while the Japanese yen continues to struggle with USD/JPY nudging up by 0.3% to 156.80 on the day. Besides that, the price action among other major currencies is leaving a lot to be desired.

And so, the spotlight continues to stay in the equities space with S&P 500 futures having earlier raced up to post gains of 0.7%. That was pared all the way back to 0.1% but futures are now keeping up by around 34 points, or 0.5%, on the day. So, there’s some pushing and pulling but the final vote once again will go to Wall Street.

Elsewhere, gold an silver are also seen nudging a little with the former now tracking back up to $4,083 while the latter is pushing back above $50 to $50.26 currently. A modest start after the setback suffered towards the end of last week.

And in one of the more interesting spots, Bitcoin is also looking a little heavy but at least continuing to survive the scare from the end of last week and through the weekend in keeping above the $80,000 mark. That being said, the coast isn’t clear yet as the downside focus is turning up again as we look to get things going in the new week.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• If the court strikes down tariffs, new actions will be taken very quickly
• Decisions like the ones on Nvidia chips and China are on Trump’s desk

There’s still no firm date on when the Supreme Court will deliver on ruling on tariffs. But the backup plan for the Trump administration would be to try and find loopholes via things like Section 301 and 122 of the Trade Act to try and unilaterally impose duties. So, we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 88.4
• Current conditions 85.6 vs 85.5 expected
• Prior 85.3
• Expectations 90.6 vs 91.4 expected
• Prior 91.6

The German business morale dipped slightly in the latest month, with the expectations/outlook index also easing. This reaffirms a more cautious mood surrounding business sentiment in Europe’s largest economy, which has been persisting since the middle of the year. Higher price pressures are likely still a key sticking point as we look towards the end of the year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Had productive talks with Lutnick, Greer in the last two days
• More work lies ahead on steel in trade talks with the US
• Will discuss aspect of critical, raw materials with US counterparts

It doesn’t sound like there was much to take from the meetings it would seem, at least based on these comments. As a reminder, the backdrop before this was a bit tense as the US has been pushing the EU to speed up in terms of implementing the supposed trade deal agreed between Trump and von der Leyen. So far, the EU has introduced a legislation back in August to lower tariffs against the US but is yet to be adopted by the European Parliament and Council.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

With the US government shutdown ending, we’ll slowly see more data releases over time in catching up. And this week will feature PPI, retail sales, and durable goods orders from the US – the ones for September at least. While those might not be too impactful now, they are still worth watching in building the overall picture ahead of the Fed next month.

But as we get through all that, do keep in mind that it is also the Thanksgiving holiday season in the US this week. The holiday falls on Thursday but typically, you’d see many people go for an extended break through to the weekend. And so, that might impact market action and general sentiment in the latter stages this week.

As a result of the holiday as well, the weekly jobless claims data is pushed to Wednesday, 26 November. And there won’t be any meaningful data releases from the US on Friday. As such, the trading week may feel like a bit of a holiday-shortened one barring any major surprises.

The stock market is closed on Thursday, 27 November and will only be open for a half-day session on Friday, 28 November. And the same goes for the bond market as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This story here on Friday helped to lift the market mood but as a caveat, it’s been one that has made it in and out of the headlines for quite a number of months already. But in a time when the market is desperately looking for something to cling onto, that was enough to at least stop the risk rout last week.

And so far today, the more positive mood is holding but it doesn’t take away from how bad things were in the past week. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.5% with Nasdaq futures up 0.8% as we look towards European trading now. However, the former is poised for a first monthly drop since April with the latter eyeing the first since March.

The negative mood last week comes despite supposedly “great” Nvidia earnings on paper. However, I’d argue that it really depends on how you want to look at it.

If you look Nvidia’s operating cash flow (OCF), it’s down to $23.8 billion or 13% from its peak of $27.4 billion. If revenue was truly soaring, OCF would be too. However, it’s down and that points to a classic story of accounting adjustments boosting the numbers to make it all look nicer than it should.

Besides that, you have rumours floating around that Nvidia’s inventory continued to swell in Q3 to nearly $20 billion. Even if not seen thereabouts, rising inventory amid slower growth is typically a bit of a red flag for most companies. But because Nvidia is the darling of this AI bubble, there are many investors who’d prefer to turn a blind eye to that. However, it should be something worth scrutinising.

So, that’s my take on the Nvidia story. Something, something beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder. And in my view, there are a lot of worthwhile concerns in terms of how the market is valuing the AI bubble at this point in time. Not least with this shift also being needed to be considered.

From a technical standpoint, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now meeting a test of its 100-day moving average. The last time both major indices traded below any of its key daily moving averages was back in early May, following the April tariffs fallout. So, that will be a very key technical level to keep an eye out for in trading this week.

That especially with it also coming at a time with further deleveraging across pure risk assets, with Bitcoin having slumped close to $80,000 on Friday and barely keeping above its 100-week moving average. On the latter technical point, that’s the first time the cryptocurrency has moved down to challenge the key level since October 2023.

While risk trades are showing some life again today, the overall backdrop above continues to suggest that the coast isn’t clear just yet. So, it’d be wise to tread carefully.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.