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The trade war isn’t hurting China as it posted another massive trade surplus in November, one of its largest ever.

• Surplus of USD 111.68 billion vs $90.7 billion prior
• USD denominated Nov imports +1.9%
• USD denominated Nov exports +5.9%
• Nov rare earth exports 5494 tonnes vs 4343 tonnes in Oct
• Year through Nov surplus of 7708 billion yuan

These are astonishing numbers given the trade war. China is steamrolling the global competition for exports.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Will not extend electricity rebates
• Decision on Austal is imminent

The electricity comment is inflationary and the RBA should look through it but there are inflationary pressures building in 2026 and a rate hike late in the year is increasingly the base case

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

In an interview on Sunday published by Los Echos, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at a US-style trade war on China.

He said he spoke with Chinese officials and warned them what’s coming.

“I told them that if they do not react, we Europeans would be forced, in
the coming months, to take strong measures following the example of the
United States, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese products,” he said.

The ‘coming months’ part is particularly notable, though it’s unclear what strings the EU could pull.

“I tried to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is
unsustainable because they are killing their own customers, particularly
by no longer importing much from us,” Macron said.

I’ve written about this before but the US might not have been just a gamechanger for US-global relations but with how the rest of the world interacts with each other. We may frequently see larger countries try to squeeze smaller trading partners, or — in this case — trading giants collide.

The EU’s goods trade deficit with China has ballooned by nearly 60% since 2019 and China is coming after the European auto market.

The thing is, Europe immediately rolled over on US tariffs so it’s not exactly projecting a backbone. The fragmentation of the eurozone also makes it extremely difficult to project a united front.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Good on anyone who sniffed out the Warner Brothers sale last year as it’s been better than a 3x trade.

The upside is now limited to $27.75 per shares, which is what Netflix bid as part of the $72 billion equity deal plus debt. It’s a huge bid in a tough industry as Netflix tries to put its stamp on traditional media.

The downside in WBD is now considerable as Trump weighed in on potential anti-trust questions.

“I’ll be involved in that decision,” Trump said Sunday.

“They have a very big market share,” Trump said. “And when they have Warner Brothers, that share goes up a lot.”

Keep in mind that Trump is not friendly with Netflix founder Reid Hastings. For years, Hastings positioned himself as one of Trump’s most prominent corporate critics. He donated $7 million to a pro-Kamala Harris Super PAC and was a leading voice pressuring Joe Biden to step down to make way for a stronger candidate against Trump.

Since the election though, he has gone quiet but Trump surely hasn’t forgotten which side he was on. I don’t see any reason to chase a 6% merger arb here with an indeterminate timeline.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prelim was -1.8%
• Prior was +2.3% q/q
• GDP q/q -0.6% vs -0.5% expected
• q/q private consumption +0.2% vs +0.1% prelim
• External demand -0.2% vs -0.2% prelim

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump and Carney were at the World Cup draw on Friday and were cordial.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +4483B

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.1%
• Overtime pay +1.5% vs +1.0% prior
• Real cash earnings -0.7%

The Bank of Japan still isn’t priced for a hike next week but this is another reason to believe that one is coming.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The new week is underway and the early FX moves are minimal.

I haven’t seen any economic data or news that’s particularly notable, so we will take the market moves as they come.

The big data drop today comes at 2350 GMT with the result of Japanese Q3 GDP. This is the second revision and expected at -2.0% annualized or 0.5% q/q. That’s a touch worse than the preliminary report.

Along with the GDP data, we get the October current account balance and it’s expected to show a big drop to +3109B yen from 4483B yen in Q2.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Tech and consumer lead US stocks higher; Utilities and energy drag down market
• The US Federal Reserve rate decision the highlight next week
• US consumer credit for October $9.18 billion versus $10.50 billion estimate
• The World Cup of foreign exchange begins
• Baker Hughes oil rig count +6 to 413
• Most major European indices close lower and near lows for the day
• Trump says he’s getting along very well with Canada and Mexico
• Bessent: China agreement is going well
• G7 and EU in talks on full ban on Russian maritime services
• USDINR Technicals: USDINR sellers took their shot, but missed. Buyers are back in control.
• US personal income for September 0.4% versus 0.3%. PCE for September 0.3% versus 0.3% exp
• December prelim UMich consumer sentiment 53.3 vs 52.0 expected
• Tech sector rallies: semiconductor stocks soar, Netflix drags entertainment sector down
• ECB’s Villeroy: We are in a good position, not a comfortable one
• Canadian dollar rises to ten-week high after the third strong jobs report in a row
• Canadian November employment change +53.6K vs -5.0K expected
• The USD is mixed to start the NA session. What are the technicals telling traders?
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies on calmer risk appetite, eyes on Fed

The USD is closing mixed on the day with the USD moving the most vs the CAD after stronger Canada GDP data. The USDCAD fell by -0.93% and closed below its 100 and 200 day MAs above and below the 1.3900 level (see technical post here).

The USD was also lower vs the AUD (by -0.44%). For that currency pair, it rose around 1.4% this week – the biggest mover for the week (see post here).

The other changes vs the major currencies were more modest on the day:

• EUR: Unchanged
• GBP -0.01%
• CHF +0.11%
• NZD -0.23%

As mentioned, Canada delivered a much stronger-than-expected November jobs report, posting a 53.6K employment gain versus a -5.0K decline expected, following +66.6K in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%, well below the 7.0% forecast, though partly helped by a dip in the participation rate to 65.1% from 65.3%. The composition was mixed: full-time employment fell by 9.4K, while part-time jobs surged by 63.0K, down from the prior month’s 85.1K. Wage growth for permanent employees held steady at 4.0% year-over-year. After months of conflicting signals — weak data in July/August followed by strong prints in September/October — this report delivers a decisive upside surprise, pushing joblessness sharply lower and contradicting expectations of labor-market cooling. With the Bank of Canada already signaling a pause, today’s data raises the possibility of renewed tightening discussions and may prove a game-changer for the Canadian dollar. The move below the 100/200 day moving averages increased the bearish bias.

In the US, the U.S. personal income rose 0.4% in September, beating expectations of 0.3%, while personal consumption increased 0.3%, matching forecasts. Headline PCE inflation rose 0.3%, keeping the year-over-year rate at 2.8%, its highest level in a year. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month, with the YoY rate holding at 2.8%, slightly below the 2.9% expected. Excluding food, energy, and housing, PCE rose 0.2%, unchanged from last month. Overall spending climbed by $65.1 billion, driven overwhelmingly by a $63.0B increase in services and $2.1B in goods, showing that consumer demand remains steady even as inflation edges higher.

The preliminary December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 53.3, beating expectations of 52.0 and improving sharply from 50.3 previously. The current conditions component softened slightly to 51.0 (vs. 51.3 expected and 52.3 prior), while expectations jumped to 52.1 (vs. 51.2 expected and 49.0 prior), signaling improving forward-looking sentiment. Inflation expectations eased meaningfully: one-year inflation fell to 4.1% from 4.7%, and five-year inflation slipped to 3.2% from 3.6%. While the UMich survey has known limitations, the Fed still monitors it closely, and the drop in inflation expectations represents a clear green light for potential rate cuts—a development equity markets typically welcome.

Looking at the US stock market, the major indices moved mostly higher to end the week:

• Dow industrial average +0.22%
• S&P index +0.19%
• NASDAQ index +0.31%

For the trading week:

• Dow industrial average but 0.50%
• S&P index +0.19%
• NASDAQ index +0.91%

In the US debt market, yields were higher

• 2-year yield 3.562%, +3.4 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.714%, +3.2 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.139%, +3.1 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.794%, +3.1 basis points

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil rose $0.47 or 0.79% t $60.14
• Gold fell $10.46 or -0.25% to $4197.45
• Silver rose $1.19 for 2.10% to $58.29
• Bitcoin reversed back to the downside today with a decline of $-3084 to $89,022.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Federal Reserve will announce or interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Fed chair Powell will speak at 2:30 PM ET.

The Fed decision is 1 of 4 central bank decisions next week. The reserve Bank of Australia will announce their rate decision on Monday night in the US (10:30 PM ET) The expectations are for no change at 3.60%. The Bank of Canada – coming off a 2nd consecutive strong employment report – is also expected to keep rates unchanged will announce on Wednesday at 9:45 AM (rate is currently at 2.25%). Finally, the Swiss National Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.0% when they announce on Thursday morning.

Of note is that the US employment report which typically would have been released today will be released until December 16. CPI data is also delayed until after the FOMC rate decision.

Below is a list of the major economic releases of events next week.

Monday, Dec 8

• 10:30pm AUD – Cash Rate: Forecast 3.60%, Previous 3.60%

• AUD – RBA Rate Statement

• 11:30pm AUD – RBA Press Conference

Tuesday, Dec 9

• 4:00am JPY – BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks

• USD – ADP Weekly Employment Change: Forecast — , Previous –13.5K

• 10:00am USD – JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast 7.14M, Previous —

Wednesday, Dec 10

• 8:30am USD – Employment Cost Index q/q: Forecast 0.9%, Previous 0.9%

• 9:45am CAD – BOC Rate Statement

• CAD – Overnight Rate: Forecast 2.25%, Previous 2.25%

• 10:30am CAD – BOC Press Conference

• 2:00pm USD – Federal Funds Rate: Forecast 3.75%, Previous 4.00%

• 2:00pm USD – FOMC Economic Projections

• 2:00pm USD – FOMC Statement

• 2:30pm USD – FOMC Press Conference

• 7:30pm AUD – Employment Change: Forecast 20.3K, Previous 42.2K

• 7:30pm AUD – Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.4%, Previous 4.3%

Thursday, Dec 11

• 3:30am CHF – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

• 3:30am CHF – SNB Policy Rate: Forecast 0.00%, Previous 0.00%

• 4:00am CHF – SNB Press Conference

• 8:30am USD – Unemployment Claims: Forecast 221K, Previous 191K

Friday, Dec 12

• 2:00am GBP – GDP m/m: Forecast 0.1%, Previous –0.1%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month $11.01 billion revised from $13.09 billion
• Consumer credit for the month of October $9.18 billion versus $10.50 billion expected

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.