Articles

• Trump on Ukraine ceasefire: I think we’re closer now than we have ever been
• Canada November CPI 2.2% y/y vs 2.3% expected
• US December NAHB housing market index 39 vs 39 expected
• NY Fed manufacturing index for December -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate.
• Fed’s Williams: Labor market risks have risen as risk to inflation have eased
• More Fed’s Williams: Very supportive of US central bank’s decision to cut interest rates
• Fed’s Collins: Supported rate cut but it was a ‘close call’
• Hassett candidacy received pushback from people close to Trump – report
• Fed’s Miran: Prices are “once again stable” and policy should reflect that

Markets:

• Gold up $2 to $4303
• US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.18%
• Bitcoin down 3% to $85,800
• S&P 500 down 0.15%
• WTI crude down 75-cents to $56.69
• JPY leads, NZD lags

The second half of December got underway with a disappointing day in stock markets. Futures had pointed to a strong day following Friday’s rout but the sellers were waiting in the weeds and pounced at the open, taking stocks down. From there it was back-and-forth as late-year flows dominated. Broadcom continued to weigh in a nearly 6% decline and Costco fell to the lowest since August 2024. On the flipside, Tesla rose to the best levels of the year.

The US dollar was generally firmer but there wasn’t a solid catalyst. Treasury yields were decently lower early in the day but that steadily unwound. USD/JPY fell as low as 154.68 before rebounding about 40 pips.

Oil came under pressure on the Ukraine ceasefire talks, which seem to have taken on a bit more serious. A series of phone calls took place in Europe, Moscow and Washington that appear to be making progress. Time will tell but any deal that ease sanctions on Russian oil would add to the crude weakness.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The tone around the ceasefire talks in Ukraine genuinely appears to be improving.

We’ve been here before so it’s tough to say whether this is real progress on yet-another headfake. Only time will tell but Trump’s comments today are encouraging:

• Good conversation with European leaders
• Long discussion, and things are seemingly going well
• Had a long talk with Zelensky
• We had numerous conversations with President Putin
• European leaders want to get it ended

Germany’s Merz also sounded unusually upbeat today.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If you followed the Barron’s playbook last year, you’re probably sitting pretty right now.

The publication has just released their scorecard for their 2025 stock picks, and the results are good. In a market environment that had plenty of chop, their basket of 10 stocks delivered a total return of 27.9%, nearly doubling the S&P 500’s respectable 15.3% return over the same period.

Here is the breakdown of how their 10 picks in 2025 performed and, more importantly, where they are betting for 2026.

Big Tech and China led the way in 2025

The outperformance was driven by massive moves in heavy hitters. The standout winner was Alibaba (BABA), which ripped 81.0% higher, followed closely by Alphabet (GOOGL) at 67.5%.

It wasn’t all tech as financials played a big role, with Citigroup (C) rallying almost 60%.

The winners:

• Alibaba (BABA): +81.0%

• Alphabet (GOOG): +67.5%

• Citigroup (C): +59.8%

• ASML Holding (ASML): +58.5%

• UBER +37.0%

It certainly wasn’t a perfect strike rate. Moderna (MRNA) shed 32.2%, while Everest Group (EG) dipped roughly 11%. But when your winners win this big, you can afford a few duds.

The 2026 Picks: Betting on “Laggards Leading”

For the year ahead, Barron’s is pivoting hard. If 2025 was about growth and recovery, 2026 looks like a deep value, contrarian play. Is that a warning to be defensive?

The theme for the new list is explicitly “Laggards Leading,” with a distinct value bent. A glance at the list shows they are fishing in beaten-down waters—several of these names are sitting on significant negative YTD returns.

The Top 10 Picks for 2026:

1. Amazon (AMZN): The odd one out in a value list? Maybe, but it’s the anchor here.

2. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): Down 9.5% recently, but paying a hefty 4.9% dividend.

3. Comcast (CMCSA): A true contrarian pick. Down 26.5% YTD with a 4.8% yield and trading at 6.7x 2026 earnings.

4. Exxon Mobil (XOM): Energy remains a staple. It’s curiously rallied lately despite falling oil prices.

5. Fairfax Financial (FRFHF): The Canadian holding company is actually up 27.3% YTD, bucking the “laggard” trend of the list. Still at only 10.2x earnings

6. Flutter Entertainment (FLUT): Betting on the gambler? The stock is down 15.5%.

7. Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS): Flat performance recently, pure asset play.

8. SL Green Realty (SLG): The scariest chart on the list? Down nearly 35% YTD, but yielding a massive 7.0%. This is a direct bet on a commercial real estate turnaround.

9. Visa (V): A defensive growth play trading at roughly 25x earnings. Long a hedge fund favorite.

10. Walt Disney (DIS): The Mouse House is down slightly YTD, trading at a reasonable 16.5x forward earnings.

The Bottom Line

This is a defensive, high-yield pivot compared to the 2025 list. Barron’s is betting that the high-flyers will cool off and capital will rotate into the dogs of the market—specifically real estate (SLG), media (CMCSA, DIS), and pharma (BMY).

With yields on some of these names pushing 5-7%, they are clearly positioning for a market where total return comes from income rather than just multiple expansion.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If you’ve been watching the Canadian curve steepen with bets on Bank of Canada hikes, CIBC has a message for you: Not so fast.

Following the November CPI release earlier today, CIBC’s Andrew Grantham is out with a note pouring cold water on the recent hawkish repricing in the market. While headline inflation held steady at 2.2%, Grantham argues the details don’t support the aggressive pricing for hikes we’ve seen creeping into the strip before the end of 2026.

The “Push and Pull” keeps the Bank on hold

Grantham describes the current environment as a “push and pull” dynamic. You have the “push” of stronger food and gasoline prices—grocery costs just saw their biggest monthly jump since March —being offset by the “pull” of softer core inflation.

That leaves the Bank of Canada in a bind, but a stable one.

Key takeaways from CIBC:

• The Sweet Spot (sort of): Underlying inflation is sitting around 2.5%. That is still “too high” to justify any further interest rate cuts right now.

• The Pushback: However, the data isn’t hot enough to validate the market’s recent pricing for rate hikes. Pricing is currently at 12% for a hike in September or sooner with one hike at 92% by year end.

• Volatility Ahead: Don’t get chopped up by headline volatility in the coming months. Grantham warns that base effects from last year’s GST/HST holiday will make the headline numbers noisy, even as core measures (excluding tax changes) likely continue to ease.

The bottom line from CIBC is that the Bank of Canada is locked into a “prolonged pause”. That’s likely to make the Fed side of the equation more meaningful for USD/CAD.

They continue to forecast the overnight rate holding steady at the current 2.25% level throughout the entirety of next year. Bond yields and the Loonie drifted marginally lower on the print, suggesting traders are already starting to unwind some of those hike bets.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold has been an incredible ride this year, up 64% year-to-date. Silver has nearly doubled that return and gold equities are up a massive 130%. Naturally, after a run like that, the “take profit” crowd is starting to get loud.

However, Scotiabank released a note this morning titled “Here’s Why We Don’t Give Up on the Gold Trade,” arguing that they remain Overweight on the sector and see further upside ahead.

Their main argument? The “broad and synchronized” tailwinds that fueled this rally are unlikely to reverse next year.

Here are the 6 catalysts Scotiabank is watching:

1. The Debt Spiral: This is the big one. US debt now stands at $37.6 trillion, up 65% in just five years. With no plan to return to fiscal equilibrium, government debt is expected to keep rising.

2. Crypto Demand (Yes, really): A new whale has entered the chat. Stablecoins backed by physical gold are driving demand, with reports estimating Tether has already hoarded over 120 tons of gold to back its token.

3. Fed Independence Risks: Markets are jittery about the Fed. If Trump appoints a dovish Chair, it could erode confidence in US institutions and intensify selling pressure on the dollar—a classic setup for gold.

4. Trade Wars 2.0: With USMCA up for renewal next year and China negotiations continuing, elevated trade uncertainty is keeping the safe-haven bid alive.

5. Weaker Dollar: Scotiabank remains bearish on the USD overall, viewing further declines as a direct boost for metals.

“But isn’t it overextended?”

It feels like it, but historically? Maybe not.

6) Scotiabank notes that while the recent run is amazing, it’s not unprecedented. They point to the late 1970s, where gold prices rose more than 6-fold and silver rose 9-fold. By that metric, this bull market might just be getting started.

From a valuation perspective, gold equities are actually trading cheaper than previous peaks. The sector is currently at ~7x EV/Fwd EBITDA, compared to valuations of over 10x observed back in 2010/2011.

The Play:

Scotiabank notes that many investors are actually still Underweight because they feel uncomfortable chasing a 60% rally. If you’re looking for equity exposure, their top picks (all rated Sector Outperform) are Kinross Gold (KGC), OceanaGold (OGC), and DPM Metals (DPM)

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The candidacy of Kevin Hasset ” has received some pushback by high-level people who have the ear of
President Donald Trump,” according to CNBC citing sources familiar.

The concern is that he’s too close to the President.

Those people better be careful what they wish for because Kevin Warsh comes with his own set of concerns.

My guess is that people who are pushing for Waller are behind this, as he’s the only realistic candidate with any credibility. However on Friday, Trump said:

“I think the two Kevins are great”

That indicates it’s a two-horse race. Over at Kashi, Warsh has passed Hassett:

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 38
• Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior
• Prospective buyers 26 vs 26 prior

The market is getting a sense of where Fed rates will bottom and it looks like US 30-year yields will finish the year where they started. In short, there is no help coming for the US housing market.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don’t get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come.

In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see broad USD weakness playing out through 2026 and into 2027.

The core thesis here is simple: Divergence.

Scotia expects the Fed to cut rates significantly—taking the target rate down to 3% by the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, other major central banks are expected to make few policy changes or even tighten.

It’s the classic rate differential trade and erodes the two pillars that have held the dollar up for so long: higher relative growth and those juicy yield differentials. We’ve been hearing about the “end of US exceptionalism” for a while, but Scotia thinks the real pain point for the USD hits in Q2/Q3 of 2026 as the US labour market slows down and the Fed stays dovish.

The Euro and Yen: The quiet climbers

For the euro, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, which should boost EUR/USD higher. Scotia is targeting a medium-term move into the 1.22-1.24 range (spot at 1.17).

For the yen, with the BoJ expected to tighten modestly in 2026, the currency finally gets some love. The forecast sends USDJPY down to 140 by late 2026 and 130 by the end of 2027. (spot at 155.68)

The Contrarian Trade: Buy the Loonie

If you’re looking for a non-consensus trade, this is it. The market is overwhelmingly short CAD right now, but Scotia sees a massive reversal incoming.

While the Fed is cutting to 3%, Scotia expects the Bank of Canada to actually start hiking rates in the second half of 2026.

They see the spread between the Fed and the BoC—which is currently a massive 175 bps—collapsing to just 25 bps by the end of next year. As that compression happens, their forecast puts USDCAD to 1.35 by year-end 2026, dropping to 1.30 by 2027. (spot at 1.3775)

Emerging Markets: Caution on the Peso

For the carry traders, the outlook on the Mexican Peso (MXN) is a lot less rosy. Scotiabank is bearish here despite the yield.

Why? Banxico is cutting rates just as volatility is picking up. The narrowing spread with the US, combined with trade uncertainty around the CUSMA review, makes the risk-reward look poor. They see USDMXN grinding higher to 19.00 next year and 20.40 by 2027.

Scotiabank FX Forecasts at a Glance

Here are the key levels they are watching for the majors by December 2026:

• EURUSD: 1.21
• USDCAD: 1.35
• USDJPY: 140
• GBPUSD: 1.38
• USDMXN: 19.00

If Scotia is right, the “higher for longer” US yields trade is dead, and the rotation out of the dollar is the big macro play for 2026.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 2.2%
• Inflation m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% prior
• BOC core 2.9% vs 2.9% prior
• BOC core m/m -0.1% vs +0.6% prior
• Core CPI +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% prior
• CPI median +2.8% vs +2.9% expected
• CPI trim +2.8% vs +2.9% expected
• CPI common 2.8% vs 2.7% prior
• Ex gasoline +2.6% vs +2.6% prior

This is generally good news for the Bank of Canada as the monthly numbers were benign.

Lower prices for travel tours and traveller accommodation, in addition
to slower growth for rent prices, put downward pressure on the all-items
CPI, Statistics Canada said. Offsetting the slower growth in services on an annual basis were higher
prices for goods, driven by price increases for groceries as well as a
smaller decline for gasoline prices.

For Canadians, the 4.7% y/y rise in grocery prices (up from +3.4%) will bite hard and is the highest y/y rise since Dec 2023. Fresh fruit was a strong component of the increase but the headline rises were in frozen been (+17.7%) and coffee (+27.8%).

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +18.7

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 18.7
• Current month (December) -3.90
• Estimate 10.0
• new orders 0.0 versus 15.9 last month.
• Shipments -5.7 versus 60.8 last month.
• Employment 7.3 versus 6.6 last month.
• Average employee workweek 3.5 versus 7.7 last month
• Prices paid 37.6 versus 49.0 last month.
• Prices received 19.8 versus 24.0 last month.

NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index – December Overview

• Business activity declined slightly in December, following two months of expansion.

• Headline general business conditions index fell to -3.9, down sharply from last month’s high, turning negative again.

New orders and shipments:

• New orders were steady, with roughly one-third of firms reporting increases and about one-third reporting declines.

• Shipments declined modestly, reflecting softer near-term demand.

Supply chain and inventories

• Delivery times shortened, indicating easing supply chain pressures.

• Supply availability worsened, suggesting renewed input constraints.

• Inventories increased modestly, pointing to stockpiling amid uncertainty.

Employment and hours worked

• Employment increased modestly, with the employment index rising to 7.3, its sixth positive reading in seven months.

• Average workweek edged lower, signaling only limited labor demand momentum.

Inflation and pricing pressures

• Input price increases slowed for a second straight month, but remain elevated.

• Prices paid index fell to 37.6, the lowest level since January.

• Prices received also declined, easing margin pressures slightly but staying historically high.

Capital spending and investment

• Capital spending plans increased, with the capex index rising to 6.9, signaling modest investment growth.

Outlook and business sentiment

• Firms became increasingly optimistic about the next six months.

• Future business conditions index rose to its highest level since January.

• Expectations for future new orders and shipments improved sharply.

• Firms expect price pressures to remain elevated, while inventories are forecast to expand further.

Bottom line

• Current activity softened, but forward-looking optimism strengthened.

• Inflation pressures are easing but not resolved, while employment and investment remain supportive of a gradual manufacturing recovery.

If you want, I can:

• Condense this into a one-screen summary, or

• Add a market impact section (USD, rates, equities).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• EURUSD Technical Analysis: ECB to hold rates steady, traders focus on US NFP and CPI
• GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Focus on key UK and US data this week for the next direction
• Dubai Will Host Its First-Ever Trading Festival alongside iFX EXPO
• Market outlook for the week of 15th-19th December
• USD/CAD keeps on falling on divergent market pricing: focus on Canada CPI and US NFP now
• Gold approaches record highs ahead of key US data: here’s how it’s likely to react
• Yen takes the lead as USD/JPY drops to 155.00 ahead of key US data. What’s next?
• FX option expiries for 15 December 10am New York cut
• S&P 500 Trade Idea for Prop Traders Today
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been kind of a synthetic Sunday in the European session with no data releases and very limited newsflow. The most notable mover has been the Japanese Yen.

The currency appreciated on the back of better than expected Tankan data and some constructive BoJ commentary overnight. The rate hike odds increased to 83%.

The market is now sure that the BoJ is going to deliver a 25 bps rate hike at this week’s monetary policy decision but it’s not expecting the central bank to outhawk the current pricing, which sees the BoJ tightening by 67 bps by the end of next year. The JPY will likely be driven more by the US data than the BoJ decision, unless the central bank decides to surprise the market.

The US dollar, meanwhile, remains weak pretty much across the board after Fed Chair Powell sounded more dovish in his press conference. Still, we have key US data this week that could change the short-term trend, starting tomorrow with the US NFP report.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report. The most important data to watch will be the underlying inflation measure, that is the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y, which is expected at 2.9% vs 3.0% prior.

The BoC last week held interest rates steady but didn’t validate the market’s rate hike bets just yet. In fact, the central bank kept a cautious tone and highlighted the weak details in the recent GDP and employment reports despite acknowledging the improvements. The market is still fully pricing a rate hike by the end of 2026.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.