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Trump was his usual delusional self over the weekend:

• Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious

Expect more of the same when he speaks on the telly soon. Still, markets seem to like his reassurance.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is the second large commercial vessel in the past week have now been hijacked my Somali pirates.

Trump’s assertion that the war is nearly done:

• Trump: Iran war will come very soon and it will be victorious

In a moment of rare candour last week Trump compared it to the decade+ Vietnam war.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.1 hit norther Japan, Hokkaido early on Monday morning local time.

• depth 81km
• 2023 GMT on Sunday

I haven’t heard of a tsunami alert as yet.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran foreign minister Aragchi travelled to Oman as expected on the weekend but then returned to Pakistan, according to reports. There are also reports that there has been some progress on the nuclear file, with the US accepting a moratorium on the enrichment ban or some kind of phased enrichment after 10 years.

The comment from Trump is positive, though the developments and lack of meetings on the weekend were concerning. More from Trump:

• If Iran wants to talk, they can call us
• We’re going to do it by phone
• Some of the people we’re dealing with in Iran are reasonable, others are not
• Hope Iran will be smart
• UK said they would send ships when war is over and that’s not good
• NATO was not there for us on Iran
• We are going to take Iran’s nuclear dust, that’s part of the negotiations

This is generally the same stuff he’s said before, though I wanted to highlight the ‘war ending soon’ part as it’s optimistic.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Donald Trump told Fox News on Saturday that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will no longer travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran.

Trump said the trip was not worthwhile, claiming that the United States “holds all the cards” in the war and does not need to send a delegation on an 18-hour flight for unproductive discussions. He added that Iran is free to reach out to Washington at any time, stressing that his team would not make such long trips “to sit around talking about nothing.”

This is the report from Fox News:

President Trump just told me over the phone he has unilaterally cancelled Witkoff and Kushner’s trip to Pakistan to meet with the Iranians.

“I’ve told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, ‘Nope, you’re not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing’.”

This all appeared to be breaking down on Friday but the market didn’t care, or didn’t understand what was happening, or I’m missing something else.

As far as I can see, we’ve reached a stalemate and the US is blocking Iranian ships and Iran is blocking everyone else’s ships. Trump and his team have been touting all the tankers heading to the US to pick up oil but they’re going to very quickly find out that prices will rise as supplies are drawn.

The next question is: What breaks the stalemate? Can there be negotiations or are more bombs coming?

We are still more than 24 hours until markets re-open but as it stands, this is bullish for oil and bearish for pretty much everything else.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Iranian foreign minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi met with Pakistani officials in Islamabad today in an effort to try to restart talks.

A Pakistani source cited by Reuters said that Iran had delivered both their demands and their reservations about US demands. Much of it sounds like the things we’ve already heard before and there are reports saying “Iran’s stance has not changed”.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry reports that Araghchi explains to Pakistani officials the leadership’s stance on war developments.

Here are some headlines from a newswire “Iranian diplomatic source”:

• We will not sit in negotiations where America draws red lines
• We have also affirmed to Pakistan’s leadership our commitment to ending the threats and the siege
• We affirmed to Pakistan’s leadership our commitment to the 10 clauses

This is from Kamran Khan is widely considered one of Pakistan’s most veteran and influential investigative journalists, though I have to say that the leaks from the Pakistan side have been wildly inaccurate lately.

Informed sources are saying:
Prospects for the resumption of the second round of U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad today are rapidly fading, as Tehran is still not ready to meet the U.S. delegation, which was expected to arrive late tonight from Washington. Iran continues to insist that the Americans end their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition for opening the second round of negotiations.

For me, I have to wonder why Witkoff and Kushner are even going if nothing has changed.

Overall, the amount of disinformation in this war has been astounding. There has been very little credible reporting and an abundance of leaks and the whole thing started with a series of smokescreens that led to Iran’s leadership revealing themselves so they could be assassinated.

Brent crude finished Friday at $105.33 per barrel.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• The NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levels
• Meeting between US and Iran may not take place until Monday
• Global Central Banks decisions highlight next week’s calendar: Market Volatility Ahead
• Earnings next week: Big Tech takes center stage
• Trump sends WItkopf and Kushner for talks with Iran. Vance is not going
• US Dept of Justice drops probe of Jerome Powell
• UMich April final consumer sentiment 49.8 vs 48.0 expected
• Iran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from negotiations – Iran media
• Canada February retail sales +0.7% vs +0.9% expected
• investingLive European FX news wrap: Risk sentiment improves on expected US-Iran talks
• Risk mood picks up on murmurs about US-Iran talks

The North American session leaned firmly toward a risk-on tone, with equities pushing higher, oil easing, and yields drifting modestly lower. The backdrop for the move was driven largely by renewed diplomatic momentum, as talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be gaining traction- with Pakistan playing a central role. While headlines throughout the day were at times inconsistent and even contradictory, the broader narrative pointed toward re-engagement rather than escalation.

U.S. envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly en route, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is also expected to be in the region. Current indications suggest that all parties may first meet separately with Pakistani officials, with the possibility of more direct engagement emerging as late as Monday. Markets are clearly choosing to focus on the potential for de-escalation, and that optimism helped extend the rally in U.S. equities.

That optimism translated into record-setting performance on Wall Street. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, with the S&P rising 0.80% and the NASDAQ surging 1.63%. Leadership once again came from mega-cap tech, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon all finishing at record levels. Meanwhile, Intel stole the spotlight with a staggering gain of over 23%. The turnaround in Intel highlights just how quickly sentiment can shift—what was recently an avoided name is now being embraced, even at elevated valuations near an 80x forward P/E. It’s a reminder that markets don’t wait for perfection—they anticipate it. It is either that, or the markets are inefficient and subject wild irrational moves at times.

Looking ahead, earnings will take center stage next week and could inject fresh volatility. Wednesday features reports from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft—a heavyweight lineup that will test the sustainability of the current rally. On Thursday, Apple, Caterpillar, and Merck follow, adding further depth across both tech and industrial sectors.

In the fixed income space, yields edged lower but remain within recent ranges. The 2-year yield declined by 4 basis points to 3.784%, while the 10-year yield slipped 1.7 basis points to 4.305%. Despite today’s dip, yields still moved higher on the week, with the 10-year up 5 basis points and the 2-year rising 7.9 basis points. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC set to meet next Wednesday. Expectations are firmly anchored for no change in rates, with the current target range centered around 3.75%. The focus will instead be on guidance and tone, particularly as markets weigh geopolitical risks against easing inflation pressures.

In the FX market, the U.S. dollar weakened as traders leaned into the improving risk backdrop and the prospect of reduced geopolitical tension. Lower oil prices and expectations of softer inflation down the road also contributed to the move. Commodity and growth-sensitive currencies led the gains, with the NZD and GBP each rising around 0.50%. The EUR advanced 0.32%, while the AUD gained 0.34%, reflecting a broader shift away from defensive positioning.

Oil prices told a slightly more nuanced story. WTI crude for June delivery fell 0.87% to $95, while July crude dropped 0.74% to $90.15, reflecting optimism around supply stability if tensions ease. However, Brent crude painted a more cautious picture, rising $1.11 (1.08%) to $106.20—suggesting that not all market participants are fully convinced that risks have been removed.

Bottom line: Markets are leaning into a more optimistic geopolitical narrative, driving equities to record highs and pressuring the dollar. However, with major earnings, a Fed decision, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty ahead, the current calm may prove fragile.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There’s a noticeable amount of positioning and repositioning ahead of the weekend, with headlines offering a mixed and at times conflicting picture. The market is reacting to uncertainty around potential diplomatic developments with a tilt toward confidence, but clarity and certainty remains limited for now.

• A trilateral meeting with the US, Iran, and Pakistan will only be considered after Pakistan first meets with Iran’s Araghchi
• A meeting between the US and Iran may not take place until Monday
• Witkoff and Kushner, meanwhile, are expected to hold separate talks with Pakistan on Sunday
• Iran’s foreign ministry says its foreign minister will meet with high-ranking Pakistani officials to discuss regional developments and ongoing efforts toward peace and stability
• Other sources close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council emphasize that no negotiations with the US are currently planned

Taken together, the messaging remains inconsistent, reinforcing the idea that the situation is still evolving and that the weekend’s developments will likely be key in shaping the next move. Despite the uncertainty, equities are holding firm near highs, with the NASDAQ up 1.54% and the S&P 500 up 0.75%, suggesting markets are leaning toward a cautiously optimistic stance—for now.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The week ahead is stacked with global central bank decisions and top-tier inflation and growth data, making it one of the most important macro weeks of the month. The Bank of Japan kicks things off, but the focus quickly shifts to a midweek cluster of Bank of Canada and FOMC decisions, followed by a “super Thursday” featuring the BOE and ECB alongside U.S. GDP and Core PCE. Inflation readings out of Australia and growth data globally add another layer, meaning rates, yields, and FX volatility could be elevated throughout the week.

Monday (April 27)

• BOJ Policy Rate Decision: No change expected
• BOJ Monetary Policy Statement & Outlook Report

Summary:
A quieter start in terms of volume, but high importance with the Bank of Japan. Markets will be watching for any shift in policy stance or guidance, especially around yield curve control and inflation outlook.

Tuesday (April 28)

• BOJ Press Conference
• Australia CPI (m/m, y/y, trimmed mean) . 9:30 PM ET. Estimate 1.3% MoM and 4.8% YoY

Summary:
Focus shifts to inflation in Australia, a key input for the RBA outlook. The BOJ press conference could also add volatility depending on tone. Expect AUD moves on CPI and JPY follow-through from BOJ messaging.

Wednesday (April 29)

• Bank of Canada Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report: 9:45 AM meeting. Current rate 2.25%. No change expected
• BOC Press Conference
• FOMC Rate Decision. 2 PM ET. Current rate 3.75%. No change expected
• FOMC Statement & Press Conference. There will be no central tendencies or dot plot released

Summary:
This is one of the biggest days of the week. Markets will digest back-to-back central bank decisions from Canada and the Fed, with the Fed clearly the headline event. The focus will be on rate guidance, inflation trajectory, and timing of future cuts or pauses.

Thursday (April 30) – “Super Thursday”

• BOE Rate Decision + Policy Report + Vote Split. 7 AM ET. Current rate 3.75%. No change expected. Estimate vote 0 – 0 – 9
• ECB Rate Decision + Press Conference
• U.S. Advance GDP (q/q) 8:30 a.m. ET. Estimate 2.1% versus 0.5% last quarter
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index . 8:30 a.m. meeting 0.3% versus 0.4% last month
• U.S. Employment Cost Index
• Canada GDP (m/m) 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.2%.

Summary:
The busiest and most market-moving day of the week.

• Central banks: BOE + ECB decisions back-to-back
• U.S. data: GDP and Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
• Global growth pulse: Canada GDP

Bottom Line

• Biggest risk events: FOMC (Wed), BOE + ECB + U.S. GDP/PCE (Thu)
• Key theme: Monetary policy + inflation + growth all converge
• Trading implication: Expect higher volatility, especially in USD pairs, rates, and equities, with multiple “trend-defining” catalysts rather than a single event

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Scott Bessent in a WSJ interview speaks about the key economy and policy goals as he maneuvers through the Iranian war and other global economic hurdles.:

• Goal: Restore strong U.S. growth following war disruptions while keeping expansion intact
• Balance inflation vs. growth: Bring inflation down without choking economic expansion
• Lift real wages: Focus on improving income for the bottom 50% of earners
• Reassert U.S. dominance in key sectors: Chips, AI, and energy seen as critical to future prosperity
• China strategy = “de-risk, not decouple” (maintain trade but reduce dependency)
• Targeted independence: Critical minerals, medicines, and semiconductors prioritized for domestic resilience
• Use leverage in trade tensions: Tariffs, tech controls, and policy tools used to pressure China strategically
• AI is existential priority: Winning in AI is essential or it’s “game over” economically
• AI policy approach: Encourage innovation while applying targeted regulation (chips, safety oversight)
• Productivity upside from AI: Seen as a major driver of efficiency and economic growth
• Energy strategy: Higher prices → more production → self-correcting mechanism to lower costs
• Rebuild domestic manufacturing: Reduce reliance on foreign supply chains and increase economic resilience
• Tax policy focus: Benefits aimed at lower-income workers (e.g., overtime tax breaks)
• Close inflation-era wage gap: Restore purchasing power lost during prior inflation surge
• Bank regulation critique: Post-crisis rules favor large banks, creating a system where “too small to succeed”
• Deregulation theme: Reduce burdens to boost investment and competitiveness
• Core objective: Combine taxes, energy, trade, and deregulation into sustained, broad-based economic growth

Bottom line:

At its core, the strategy is a pro-growth, supply-side push aimed at strengthening U.S. economic dominance by boosting productivity, rebuilding key industries, and improving outcomes for lower-income workers. It balances inflation control with continued expansion, leans on energy and deregulation to drive investment, and uses targeted trade and industrial policies to reduce dependence on China without fully breaking ties. Artificial intelligence sits at the center as the key future growth engine, with the broader goal of aligning tax, trade, and regulatory policy into a cohesive framework that delivers sustained, broad-based economic growth.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The positive headlines around Iran continue to mount:

• Witkoff and Kushner headed to Pakistan on Saturday morning, according to the White House
• “We hope that positive developments will come from this meeting” Leavitt said
• Iran reached out an asked for an in person meeting
• Vance will be standing by in the US
• Everyone will be on standby to fly to Pakistan if needed

Axios also reported that Witkoff and Kushner would travel “in the coming days” but the details of that report were less encouraging. It says:

The diplomatic efforts haven’t made any progress
in recent days. The trip is an effort to break the stalemate and build
momentum for a deal before Trump goes back to exploring military
options.

My guess is they’re continuing to try to get the US to drop its blockade of Iran’s ships.

There is also this detail in the Axios report, which follows a report that he had stepped down earlier:

A
U.S. official and a source with knowledge said Ghalibaf grew frustrated
with the infighting in the Iranian leadership after the previous round
of talks, and even threatened to step aside. It’s unclear if he’s still
the lead Iranian negotiator.

It’s interesting that this is all coming from the US side while the reporting from Iran said it would be a short stop in Pakistan for a bilateral meeting with Pakistan’s leaders. Of course, you never really know what’s going on but the market is certainly taking it well. The S&P 500 is up 0.7%.

The White House’s Leavitt is also talking and said there has been “some progress” on Iran in recent days.

Finally, Iran’s Tasnim reports that Araghchi will not hold any negotiations with Americans. The reports out of Iran have consistently said something similar.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

CNN is reporting that the special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the US in the talks in Pakistan this weekend. VP Vance is not going because neither is Ghalibaf, but he does remain on stand-by.

The X post from CNN’s Alayna Treene

Scoop: Trump is sending his special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan to participate in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, two administration officials tell CNN.

VP JD Vance is not currently planning to attend given Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who is viewed internally by White House officials as the head of the Iran delegation and Vance’s counterpart, is not participating either, they said.

However, the vice president will be on standby to travel to Islamabad if negotiations progress, they said, and members of his staff will be in the country and attending the talk.

The USD has moved lower and is trading at session lows.

US broader indices are trading at new session highs:

• S&P index up 54 points or 0.76% at 7162.26
• NASDAQ index up 360 points or 1.47% had 24799.88.

The Dow industrial average is still negative by -50 points or -0.10%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.