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• Prior 1.307m
• Building permits 1.412m vs 1.350m expected
• Prior 1.330m

This is still old data as government shutdown in October delayed many key economic reports. The last report was in September where it showed housing starts falling to the lowest level since May 2025.

There’s been persistent housing market weakness due to high mortgage rates and softening labor market. Trump said in a Truth Social post today that he has ordered $200 bn in MBS purchases to lower mortgage rates.

Trump said that large-scale MBS buying would narrow mortgage spreads, push borrowing costs lower, and reduce monthly mortgage payments. He described the move as part of a broader strategy to reverse what he characterised as damage inflicted on housing affordability over the past several years.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +64K (revised to +56K)
• October was -105K (revised to -173K)
• Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.5% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.6%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.375% vs 4.564% prior
• Participation rate 62.4% vs 62.5% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.4% vs 8.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs +3.6% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +37K vs +64K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs -5K expected
• Government payrolls +27K vs -5K in November

The market was pricing in a 12% chance of a January rate cut before the data and a 40% chance of a cut at the March meeting. For the year, there were 54.7 bps of easing priced in. The US 10-year yield was at 4.187% and USD/JPY was trading at 157.57.

The US dollar is mostly lower on this as it reacts to the headline and the poor revisions. I would argue that the market was priced for an upside surprise given that most of the pre-jobs employment numbers were upbeat. The good news in the report is the fall in the unemployment rate, which — without rounding fell nearly 0.2 pp, though a chunk of that was due to people dropping out of the labor force.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is moving to the upside, with the Dollar Index climbing to its highest level in about a month and notable strength against the JPY (up 0.45%). The greenback is also higher vs the other major currency pairs with USD up 0.11% vs the EUR and 0.19% vs the GBP.

The AUDUSD is trading down -0.33% (higher USD) as it reacts to:

• Weak Trade Data: Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to AUD 2.94 billion in November (well below the AUD 4.9 billion forecast). This was driven by a 2.9% drop in exports.

• China Inflation Miss: China, Australia’s largest trading partner, released December CPI data showing only a 0.8% rise, missing the 0.9% forecast. This suggests weak demand from China, which is always a bearish signal for the Aussie.

• Cooling Inflation: Recent Australian CPI data showed a slowdown to 3.4%. While this is good for consumers, it has led markets to scale back expectations for a February interest rate hike from the RBA, removing a key support for the currency.

Meanwhile, the NZDUSD is lower by -0.45%

The NZD is currently trading near its lowest levels since early December, influenced by:

• Technical Breakdown: The NZD/USD pair recently broke through support levels (around 0.5750) and is currently facing “Strong Sell” technical signals as momentum shifts downward.

• RBNZ Stance: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signaled that its easing cycle likely ended in 2025, but Governor Anna Breman has pushed back against near-term rate hikes. This “on-hold” stance makes the NZD less attractive compared to a rebounding US Dollar.

• Geopolitical Jitters: Heightened tensions in South America and between China and Japan are weighing on the “Kiwi,” which typically suffers when global risk appetite declines.

Treasury yields are edging higher helping to support the USD with the:

• 2 year yield at 3505, up 1.7 basis points.
• 5 year yield 3.7499% +1.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.15%, +0.2 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.847%, -1.0 basis points

In commodities,

• Gold is trading up $13.77 or -0.31% that $4464
• Silver is trading up $0.64 or 0.84% at $77.62.
• Oil is trading up $0.51 at $58.29
• Bitcoin is trading down $747 and $90,284

U.S. stock futures are mostly higher early Friday as markets head into a potentially pivotal day, with investors watching two major risk events: a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs and the December nonfarm payrolls report. The Supreme Court is scheduled to meet today, fueling speculation that a decision on the legality of several sweeping tariffs could come soon. While the court does not pre-announce rulings—and a decision could still be weeks or months away—the issue remains a meaningful overhang for markets given the potential implications for U.S. companies, global trade flows, and government tariff revenue.

Attention is also firmly on the December jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Labor market data will be closely scrutinized for signs of cooling that could support the case for further interest-rate cuts later this year. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are looking for job growth of roughly 73,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to tick lower to 4.5%. Any meaningful deviation from expectations could spark volatility across rates, equities, and FX.

Looking at the major indices, the futures are implying

• Dow industrial average rose 2.11 points
• S&P index is up 7.04 point
• NASDAQ index is up 40 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It’s the first ‘big day’ of the year in a year that feels much longer than 9-days already.

The non-farm payrolls report is due at the bottom of the hour along with the Canadian jobs report. Before the report is released, read

• Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog

The consensus is 60K jobs with a 4.5% unemployment rate. The jobs report is always a roll of the dice but the preview outlines why I think risks are skewed towards a higher number.

The Canadian number is always volatile and the prior was +53.6K so there’s likely to be a pullback. The consensus is -5K.

Both of those events may only see a limited market reaction as traders hold their breath for 10 am ET, when the Supreme Court might release its tariff decision.

See:

• The Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an ‘opinion day’. What’s the trade
• How the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffs

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• Who’s got the most bullish NFP forecast this time around?
• Non-farm payrolls seen accelerating as unemployment rate holds steady – JP Morgan
• US payrolls to stay supported but unemployment rate seen increasing further – Citi
• Trump: I have cancelled previously expected second wave of attacks on Venezuela
• Oklo jumps 20% in pre-market as Meta unveils nuclear deals to power data centers
• What are the interest rate expectations for the major central banks at the start of 2026?
• French stocks eye fresh record highs to start the day in Europe
• Here’s why the rest of the world has to keep an eye on China’s deflation story
• Germany November industrial production +0.8% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• Swiss unemployment rate keeps steady in December but the trend remains clear

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 0.6 bps to 4.189%
• Gold down 0.1% to $4,470.54
• WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $58.25
• Bitcoin down 1.1% to $90,168

It’s all about the US labour market report as we look to wrap up the week. And that’s the main event that market players were gearing towards in European morning trade today.

There wasn’t too much happening during the session, coming off Asia trading where we saw China miraculously staving off deflation – at least by the number – in 2025. The dollar firmed across the board in European trading but the gains are relatively measured.

USD/JPY is the notable gainer, moving up by 0.5% to 157.66, while EUR/USD is just down slightly by 0.2% to 1.1640 on the day. Besides that, USD/CAD is up 0.1% to 1.3875 while AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.6677 currently. All in all, the moves are light with no real convictions just yet before we get to the non-farm payrolls.

In the equities space, risk sentiment looks to be steadier in Europe but more so on edge in general. Major indices in Europe continue to scale up with the DAX and CAC 40 pressing fresh record highs and looking to end the week with a flourish. Meanwhile, US futures are more tepid with S&P 500 futures just up 0.1% as AI valuation concerns continue to linger after yesterday’s action.

Besides that, there wasn’t much else taking place with precious metals holding relatively steadier compared to the volatile price action we’ve been seeing to start the new year. Gold is just marginally lower to $4,470 while silver is up “only” by 1% to $77.92 in a slight rebound after an early drag that carried over from yesterday.

Well, it’s all on the US jobs report now as well as the Supreme Court rulings for today, in which the court may release opinions in argued cases during a scheduled sitting at 1500 GMT. On the latter though, do keep in mind that the court does not announce ahead of time which rulings it intends to issue. So, whether or not we’ll see Trump’s tariffs get mentioned remain to be seen. But in any case, just keep a look out on that.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

For InvestingLive.com Traders and Investors
Date: January 9, 2026
Session: Pre-Market / Early US Session
Asset: Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ)

Nasdaq Futures Today: From Apparent Weakness to Structural Strength

Earlier in the session, Nasdaq futures appeared vulnerable. Price briefly pushed below recent value, creating the impression that a bearish breakdown might be developing. That initial read, however, proved misleading.

While the headline chart now shows a straightforward rally, the more important story sits beneath the surface. Order flow revealed a sequence of events that pointed to institutional defense, ineffective selling, and a gradual transition from rotational trade into a developing trend.

This shift did not happen suddenly. It unfolded step by step, and understanding that process matters for positioning and risk management.

1. The Turning Point in Nasdaq So Far Today: A Failed Test Near 25,650

The most important moment of the session came during the dip below yesterday’s value area.

Price moved under the 25,660 zone and appeared set to test the well-advertised liquidity level near 25,650. That test never happened.

Instead, selling pressure was absorbed above the level. Buyers stepped in early, preventing price from completing the expected downside auction.

In order flow terms, this is a meaningful signal. When price approaches an obvious downside target and fails to trade there, it often reflects impatient demand. Strong participants were not waiting for cheaper prices. They were willing to transact earlier than expected.

That behavior left late sellers exposed and set the stage for a reversal in control.

2. Nasdaq Bulls Reclaiming Control: VWAP and Value Area High

Following the failed downside attempt, market behavior shifted decisively.

The move back through VWAP was not a slow grind. It was supported by expanding volume, consistent with short covering layered on top of fresh directional buying.

The more important confirmation came with the reclaim of 25,698, yesterday’s Value Area High and a key reference throughout the session.

From an order flow perspective, this marked a clear change in narrative.

• Prior resistance transitioned into support

• Selling attempts above that level lost effectiveness

• Value stopped rotating lower and began migrating higher

At that point, the market moved away from balance and into continuation.

3. The Current Phase in Nasdaq Futures: Controlled, Stair-Step Continuation

Before we dive into what is happening on Nasdaq futures today, let’s look at the 4 hr chart within the last weeks, for an overview of where price is at.

After the initial squeeze higher, Nasdaq futures transitioned into a healthier structure.

Rather than accelerating vertically, price has been advancing in a measured, stair-step fashion. On lower timeframes, pullbacks have been shallow and quickly absorbed. Sellers remain active, but their participation has not resulted in sustained downside progress.

This type of ineffective selling is commonly seen in durable trends. Importantly, value has continued to build higher alongside price, suggesting acceptance of higher prices rather than rejection.

This is not emotional momentum. It is controlled acceptance.

Key Levels and Forward Scenarios for Nasdaq Futures Today

Nasdaq futures are now pressing through the 25,750 area and approaching a meaningful cluster of overhead references.

Primary Upside Magnet:
25,780 to 25,790
This zone includes a prior Point of Control and a key structural reference from earlier in the week.

What matters from here is behavior, not direction alone. Strong trends often pause or consolidate near composite levels. The focus shifts to whether selling pressure becomes effective or continues to be absorbed.

Bullish structure remains intact while:

• Price holds above the prior breakout zone near 25,720

• Pullbacks remain shallow and value continues to migrate higher

A sustained acceptance back below those levels would suggest a return to balance. At this stage, the evidence does not support that outcome.

Nasdaq Trader Takeaway

Today’s Nasdaq rally was not random and not purely technical. It was built on a failed downside auction, early buyer intervention, and a clean reclaim of key value levels.

As long as selling pressure continues to be absorbed and price holds above reclaimed value, the directional bias remains bullish. That said, the easiest portion of the move has likely passed. New positioning near resistance requires patience, selectivity, and confirmation rather than urgency.

This analysis is based on proprietary order flow and orderFow Intel and is intended as decision support, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The distribution of forecasts this time around has the headline number in a range of 19k to 155k. The most bullish end of the range comes from Jefferies, who forecast non-farm payrolls at 155k with private payrolls at 90k. At the same time, the firm also sees the unemployment rate dropping back down to 4.3% in December.

So, let’s take a look at their argument as to why they believe the labour market picture is going to turn for the better.

“We are expecting what will look like a remarkably strong December employment report, a reversal of the
rising unemployment trend and one of the strongest-looking prints in several months. However, these impressive headlines are a consequence of calendar quirks combined with payback
effects from October and November distortions that grossly overstate the difference in demand for labor in
December.”

So, it would seem that they see the numbers coming in strong as part of a reversal of the distortions from the November report last month. As a reminder, there was no October report amid the longest US government shutdown in history.

Jefferies dives deeper into the supposed “calendar quirk” with a little math of their own. But the thing is, did they get their calendar dates wrong? I must digress that the dates that they are putting out somewhat makes sense when you view it as ‘November’ (the shutdown ended on 12 November) instead of ‘December’. So, just keep that in mind when you read the passage below:

“An expectation of a +65k m/m increase [for government employees] may seem like we’re going out on a
limb. However, this has nothing to do with a change of heart in the approach to government employment
and everything to do with calendar quirks. Recall that the Establishment Survey measures the number of
workers that are on payroll (and receive pay) during the week that contains the 12th of the month. For
December, this is the week that began on Sunday, December 8, and ended on Saturday, December 13.
The government shutdown ended on Wednesday, December 10, and workers were expected to be back at
work the following day, Thursday, December 11. Assuming that all workers followed orders immediately,
one would expect that furloughed workers would have returned by Thursday or Friday, worked some hours,
and received pay. If this is the case, then they would not be counted on payrolls for
November, but instead they would be counted in December.”

So, yeah. You can sort of get the gist of it in that the workers surveyed would not have been on payroll in November but they would be for December. I’ll just take that and ignore their math of working that out with the dates above, unless I am the one reading it completely wrong. Feel free to correct me if so.

As for the unemployment rate, Jefferies notes that:

“We feel confident that the +1.191m increase in the
labor force from August through November will be followed by a mean-reverting decline of about 300k.
Assuming that employment rises by +100k, similar to November, this would translate to a -400k decline in
household unemployment, and an unemployment rate of 4.338%. For illustrative purposes, if we were to
instead assume that household employment falls -100k, unemployment falls -400k, and the labor force
contracts -500k, this would still put the unemployment rate at 4.343%.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to show a growth of 75k in December, with private payrolls also matching that figure at 75k. Much like what Citi noted, JP Morgan also points to seasonal factors as underpinning the headline payrolls number:

“The summer deceleration and subsequent acceleration bears some resemblance to
last year, so there could be a bit of residual seasonality in play that causes job growth to keep accelerating.
We thus forecast a near-trend value of 75k for payrolls, as a range of labor indicators don’t point to major
changes in labor market conditions compared to earlier months.”

That being said, they do point out the risk of weather having an adverse effect but one that is unlikely to appear here. As mentioned before, this is usually one that typically appears more in January and/or February.

“Heating degree days showed weather in early November as somewhat warmer than usual, turning to
colder than usual in December, which could weigh on jobs, though the effect is probably not large.”

As for the unemployment rate, the firm forecasts the reading to be at 4.6% in December i.e. unchanged when looking at the rounded figure from November. That as they estimate the labour force participation rate to hold more or less steady at 62.5%.

However, JP Morgan also points to potential data quality concerns as affecting the jobless rate this time around. As highlighted yesterday, the firm warned that:

“Despite the government shutdown ending partway through the household survey reference week, a number of federal employees still classified themselves as being on temporary layoff. Reversing that in December could cut the unemployment rate about 4bp.”

So, there’s that to consider alongside the other potential distortions that could creep into the December report later in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to clock in at 75k in December, beating estimates with private payrolls hitting 80k. That being said, they estimate the unemployment rate to jump up to 4.7% after having risen to 4.6% (4.56% unrounded) in November.

“Just as with the last few months, we would caution that seemingly stronger job growth may be more a
result of seasonal adjustment issues in a low hiring environment rather than a sustained pick-up in demand
for workers. Seasonal factors imply a boost from typically low hiring in many months in Q4/Q1.”

Building on the case that payrolls would stay supported due to seasonal factors, Citi notes that:

“Looking through extreme seasonal adjustment
issues around the Thanksgiving holiday, continuing jobless claims have been following a similar pattern as
last year, declining more clearly by the end of November. This could suggest upside risk to our forecast,
possibly with seasonally adjusted strength in sectors like transportation and retail trade.”

They also pointed to the fact that December 2024 saw a “very strong” payrolls print of 323k.

As for the unemployment rate, the firm argues that:

“There has been
substantial residual seasonality in the participation rate this year that would imply it rises again in
December, although usual seasonal factor updates incorporated into December data are a risk to this
assumption.”

Adding that a key driver in their estimate stems from the anticipation that the labour force participation rate rising a bit further again from 62.47% to a rounded 62.6%.

Besides that, Citi estimates average hourly earnings to be on the softer side this time around (+0.1% m/m) in saying that:

“Calendar effects that imply softer wage growth
could also be one temporary factor leading to softer wage growth in December. But forward-looking wage
plans of businesses, which tend to lead actual wage growth trends by a few months, suggest this slowing
will continue into 2026.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

From the man himself:

“Venezuela is releasing large numbers of political prisoners as a sign of “Seeking Peace.” This is a very important and smart gesture. The U.S.A. and Venezuela are working well together, especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better, and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure. Because of this cooperation, I have cancelled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks, which looks like it will not be needed, however, all ships will stay in place for safety and security purposes. At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT”

There’s just nothing quite like a world leader casually talking about attacks and invasion-like actions against another country like it is nothing. Good stuff. Tells you a lot about the geopolitical landscape we’re dealing with at the moment.

While expected, Trump continues to just reaffirm that the US will be occupying Venezuela for an extended period of time. Mind you, he said yesterday that it could even be for years. So, don’t hold your breath.

Now, the focus and attention turns towards Iran and Greenland. After all that has happened, you wouldn’t want to risk ruling out Trump from taking action there.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Non-Farm Payrolls

• 19K-155K range of estimates
• 40K-75K range most clustered
• 60K-70K consensus

Unemployment Rate

• 4.7% (2%)
• 4.6% (30%)
• 4.5% (58%) – consensus
• 4.4% (8%)
• 4.3% (2%)

Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y

• 3.7% (14%)
• 3.6% (67%) – consensus
• 3.5% (10%)
• 3.4% (10%)

Average Hourly Earnings M/M

• 0.4% (7%)
• 0.3% (70%) – consensus
• 0.2% (18%)
• 0.1% (5%)

Average Weekly Hours

• 34.3 (74%) – consensus
• 34.2 (26%)

The December jobs data so far has been good as Adam noted in his post here. As noted by Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members, the unemployment rate should be the most important indicator at the moment, although a notable deviation in the headline payrolls won’t be ignored.

Looking at the distribution of forecasts, we can notice that the expectations are skewed to the upside for the unemployment rate. So, a 4.4% rate or lower will be taken as a hawkish surprise, while we need a 4.7% rate or higher for a dovish surprise.

Having said that, I have a feeling that CPI will be more important because inflation worry is what is constraining the Fed from acting more quickly and with more conviction on rate cuts. Nonetheless, notable deviations in the NFP report will still trigger big market moves and influence the market pricing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Switzerland December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 3.0% vs 3.0% expected
• Prior 3.0%

The reading meets estimates, so there’s nothing all too much to talk about. The number of registered unemployed persons did see a slight rise though to 147,275 people. And that is up from the 138,860 unemployed persons seen in November 2025. As for job vacancies, December saw a figure of 35,940 reported and that is also seen up from 32,670 in November.

But as the year draws to a close, perhaps it is better to look at how the Swiss jobless rate fared as a whole for the period during 2025.

The unemployment rate ends the year at 3.0% and that is up from 2.6% seen back in December 2024. Meanwhile, the number of registered unemployed persons have also increased to 147,275 from 130,293 back in December 2024. As for job vacancies, the figure back at the end of 2024 was 30,422.

Overall, the trend is rather clear. There is some slack coming back into the labour market and that’s seeing conditions soften further during the course of last year. And that is expected to carry on to the new year as well, with the jobless rate now currently hovering at the highest since July 2021.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.