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As we look to wrap up 2025, the AI bubble just about managed to get away unscathed to end the year. That being said, there were rising concerns to deal with especially that on valuation. And in talking about that, it is fair to say that all of this will be a mainstay in the conversation for 2026. So the question is, have markets gotten too optimistic about the impact of AI? And are we going to see a reality check come next year?

Well, it definitely is something worth thinking about and considering.

The simple understanding of AI is that it boosts productivity by making processes more efficient and faster right. Let’s take an intelligible example of making orange juice from the fruit itself. Yes, I love fruit examples. It always brings me back to this article here in explaining the whole LIBOR scandal back in the day.

But yes, orange juice.

Let’s say you are someone who squeezes orange juice to sell, and one day you make it known that you are going to buy a high-tech and super-quick orange peeler and squeezer to get the juice ready to sell. People get excited about that and throw you $500 even though you only make like $5 in profits at the time.

The people aren’t fussed about the money today because they “believe” that with the new technology, you’re going to revolutionise the world of selling orange juice.

So, that’s pretty much where we were or somewhat still are at in the whole AI bubble. The sense check hasn’t quite happened yet but it’s only a matter of time until questions are asked about the following:

• Is the new technology really that good?
• How has it really improved the efficiency and time cost of getting the orange juice ready for sale?
• Has it really helped to increase profit margin by a great amount?

If you translate that to companies and firms that are knee deep in AI investment, these are all valid questions at some point. And that could be what investors are demanding next year.

Before this, markets would cheer on AI investment and increased capital expenditure to be revolutionary. Now, doing so isn’t anything new but instead it’s rather commonplace instead.

It’s like having the new PlayStation 5 on release. You’re the cool kid and everyone wants to hang out with you when you have it. But then when everyone else also starts to own it, what you have isn’t anything different and people hang out at their own homes instead.

And so the question then turns to how do you get the people i.e. investors to stay? What makes yours more “magical” and “special”? That is where the productivity conversation comes in.

For Big Tech, that means the conversation isn’t anymore about spending on AI. It’s about who can actually use that correctly to reflect a better bottom line.

For the likes of Google and Meta, it’s all about translating that to ad revenue with the former also going to be scrutinised on their cloud business. And so far, they are two of the better ones that have an easier time to show how increased productivity and how that translates to earnings in general.

Then you have the likes of Amazon and Microsoft, who both have laid out massive amounts of capital in trying to convince investors that they are keeping up in the AI game.

Now, Amazon has committed the most in terms of capital expenditure on AI as compared to everyone else and one thing they are hiding behind for now is that their revenue stream and productivity gains are spread across multiple points. They have their warehouse technologies, robots, website, and cloud systems all layered with AI advancements. And so, the profits have to keep rolling in to convince investors against their big amount of money spent.

That said, Amazon is also big enough to insulate themselves from risks of having to rely on chipmakers and external data centers. They do work to develop their own chips and are going big in expanding on the latter as well. I spoke about data centers and the importance of the fight for power last week here.

As for Microsoft, it’s quite straightforward with Copilot being their biggest push product offering. The proof will be in the numbers, that being how many people actually feel the need to sign up for AI software delivered by the firm. And personally speaking, I’m not a big fan with my own taste preference being to continue using Windows 10.

And we can’t talk about Big Tech without talking about the poster boy of the whole AI bubble now, can we? Nvidia has been the biggest name of them all during this run and is it time that the lofty expectations finally catch up to them?

The Blackwell chip release shows that demand is still well outweighing supply. But if backlogs start to reduce and companies like Amazon and Microsoft also start developing their own AI ecosystem, that could be a troubling sign for Nvidia amid the pressure to constantly outperform and deliver well above what they are doing.

Don’t get me wrong. Nvidia is still a major cash cow and the biggest earner from the continued focus in the AI bubble. But are investor expectations too high that anything less than perfect will get punished? That will be interesting to see, especially with key risks from the China market that could provide some untimely headlines.

But if all goes well for Jensen Huang and his company, they could be the first ever $5 trillion market cap stock. Or if you want to dream big, maybe even $10 trillion.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As we look to wrap up 2025, the AI bubble just about managed to get away unscathed to end the year. That being said, there were rising concerns to deal with especially that on valuation. And in talking about that, it is fair to say that all of this will be a mainstay in the conversation for 2026. So the question is, have markets gotten too optimistic about the impact of AI? And are we going to see a reality check come next year?

Well, it definitely is something worth thinking about and considering.

The simple understanding of AI is that it boosts productivity by making processes more efficient and faster right. Let’s take an intelligible example of making orange juice from the fruit itself. Yes, I love fruit examples. It always brings me back to this article here in explaining the whole LIBOR scandal back in the day.

But yes, orange juice.

Let’s say you are someone who squeezes orange juice to sell, and one day you make it known that you are going to buy a high-tech and super-quick orange peeler and squeezer to get the juice ready to sell. People get excited about that and throw you $500 even though you only make like $5 in profits at the time.

The people aren’t fussed about the money today because they “believe” that with the new technology, you’re going to revolutionise the world of selling orange juice.

So, that’s pretty much where we were or somewhat still are at in the whole AI bubble. The sense check hasn’t quite happened yet but it’s only a matter of time until questions are asked about the following:

• Is the new technology really that good?
• How has it really improved the efficiency and time cost of getting the orange juice ready for sale?
• Has it really helped to increase profit margin by a great amount?

If you translate that to companies and firms that are knee deep in AI investment, these are all valid questions at some point. And that could be what investors are demanding next year.

Before this, markets would cheer on AI investment and increased capital expenditure to be revolutionary. Now, doing so isn’t anything new but instead it’s rather commonplace instead.

It’s like having the new PlayStation 5 on release. You’re the cool kid and everyone wants to hang out with you when you have it. But then when everyone else also starts to own it, what you have isn’t anything different and people hang out at their own homes instead.

And so the question then turns to how do you get the people i.e. investors to stay? What makes yours more “magical” and “special”? That is where the productivity conversation comes in.

For Big Tech, that means the conversation isn’t anymore about spending on AI. It’s about who can actually use that correctly to reflect a better bottom line.

For the likes of Google and Meta, it’s all about translating that to ad revenue with the former also going to be scrutinised on their cloud business. And so far, they are two of the better ones that have an easier time to show how increased productivity and how that translates to earnings in general.

Then you have the likes of Amazon and Microsoft, who both have laid out massive amounts of capital in trying to convince investors that they are keeping up in the AI game.

Now, Amazon has committed the most in terms of capital expenditure on AI as compared to everyone else and one thing they are hiding behind for now is that their revenue stream and productivity gains are spread across multiple points. They have their warehouse technologies, robots, website, and cloud systems all layered with AI advancements. And so, the profits have to keep rolling in to convince investors against their big amount of money spent.

That said, Amazon is also big enough to insulate themselves from risks of having to rely on chipmakers and external data centers. They do work to develop their own chips and are going big in expanding on the latter as well. I spoke about data centers and the importance of the fight for power last week here.

As for Microsoft, it’s quite straightforward with Copilot being their biggest push product offering. The proof will be in the numbers, that being how many people actually feel the need to sign up for AI software delivered by the firm. And personally speaking, I’m not a big fan with my own taste preference being to continue using Windows 10.

And we can’t talk about Big Tech without talking about the poster boy of the whole AI bubble now, can we? Nvidia has been the biggest name of them all during this run and is it time that the lofty expectations finally catch up to them?

The Blackwell chip release shows that demand is still well outweighing supply. But if backlogs start to reduce and companies like Amazon and Microsoft also start developing their own AI ecosystem, that could be a troubling sign for Nvidia amid the pressure to constantly outperform and deliver well above what they are doing.

Don’t get me wrong. Nvidia is still a major cash cow and the biggest earner from the continued focus in the AI bubble. But are investor expectations too high that anything less than perfect will get punished? That will be interesting to see, especially with key risks from the China market that could provide some untimely headlines.

But if all goes well for Jensen Huang and his company, they could be the first ever $5 trillion market cap stock. Or if you want to dream big, maybe even $10 trillion.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Musk flags silver supply (and price!) risks as China export curbs spark market concern
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0331 (vs. estimate at 7.0057)
• China launches “Justice Mission 2025” drills simulating blockade around Taiwan (more info)
• BoJ signals more rate hikes ahead as policy seen far from neutral. JPY trades higher.

Christmas Day/Boxing Day/Weekend:

• China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30
• China flags more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to boost domestic demand
• Ukraine peace talks gain momentum as Trump and European leaders signal progress
• China industrial profits slump at fastest pace in 14 months as demand weakens
• Trump: “Final stages of talking” on Ukraine-Russia deal
• Oil drops again but OPEC’s market share war could create a generational buying opportunity
• Mixed sector performances as tech and healthcare show gains
• Tokyo CPI eased in December but stayed above target, BOJ to stay on gradual rate hike path
• BOJ’s Ueda sees wages and inflation reinforcing rate-hike case (Post when Ueda spoke on December 25)

TL;DR summary:

• Silver hit fresh record highs above US$83 before a sharp pullback, with volatility driven by strong industrial demand and supply concerns

• Elon Musk warned higher silver prices are problematic for industry, highlighting EVs’ heavy reliance on the metal

• China industrial profits slumped 13.1% y/y in November, underscoring persistent deflation and “involution” pressures

• Beijing signalled a more proactive fiscal stance in 2026, supporting consumption, innovation and growth near 5%

• USD/CNY fixing hit its strongest level since September 2024, while BoJ commentary kept further rate hikes in focus

• Ukraine peace talks made incremental progress, while PLA drills around Taiwan kept geopolitical risk elevated

Silver was volatile to start the new week, surging to another record high above US$83 before sharply retracing below US$75. As of writing, prices have stabilised around the mid-range near US$80. The move drew broader attention over the weekend after Elon Musk weighed in on rising prices, warning: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.”

The concern is well-founded from an industrial perspective. Electric vehicles use roughly twice as much silver as internal combustion engine cars, with the metal critical for power electronics, inverters, high-voltage contacts and fast-charging systems due to its superior conductivity and reliability. The episode reinforces how sensitive silver has become to the electrification and AI capex cycles.

China was also in focus over the weekend. Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the sharpest decline in more than a year, as weak domestic demand and persistent deflation offset relatively resilient exports. The data underscore that “involution” pressures remain firmly in place, with firms still forced to compete aggressively on price and push excess supply offshore as the economy heads into 2026.

Against that backdrop, China’s finance ministry said fiscal policy will be more proactive in 2026, with a renewed focus on boosting consumption, supporting innovation and strengthening the social safety net in an effort to sustain growth near 5%. The guidance helped lend some support to the AUD, while on Monday the People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY fixing at its strongest level since late September 2024. The yuan is strong while the PBoC seeks to stabilise the currency.

The yen was another mover. USD/JPY dipped below 156.10 before rebounding back above 156.50. The Bank of Japan’s December Summary of Opinions showed policymakers remain confident that policy is still far from neutral, with several members backing steady further rate hikes to avoid falling behind the curve, even as real rates remain deeply negative. In the points above yopu’ll see notes from Ueda’s speech on Christmas Day and Tokyo inflation data published on December 26.

Geopolitics also remained a bubbling risk. Ukraine peace talks showed further progress after constructive discussions involving Donald Trump, EU leaders and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, though unresolved territorial issues continue to limit any full “peace dividend” pricing. Meanwhile, China’s People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command launched a multi-day exercise around Taiwan dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” featuring blockade-style operations and joint live-fire assaults, keeping regional geopolitical risk elevated.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -0.31%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +0.42%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.31%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -0.37%

Bitcoin gained ground, up over 2.5% to above US$90K.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:

• Drills include blockade-style operations and joint assault scenarios

• Exercises involve multi-directional air and naval approaches

• Rhetoric framed as warning against Taiwan independence

• Markets watch for signs of escalation beyond scheduled drills

China’s military has announced a new, larger-scale exercise around Taiwan (earlier info: China to conduct live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan on December 30), intensifying pressure on the island and reinforcing concerns that recent drills are evolving beyond routine signalling into more explicit rehearsal scenarios.

The People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command said it will begin a major exercise later this evening U.S. time, running through Tuesday, under the codename “Justice Mission 2025.” According to the command, the drills will focus on sea–air combat readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, and the blockade of key ports and areas, language that closely aligns with scenarios designed to isolate Taiwan rather than conduct limited demonstrations.

In a statement, an Eastern Theater Command spokesperson said the exercises will involve vessels and aircraft approaching Taiwan from multiple directions, with forces from different military services conducting joint assault operations. The drills are intended to test joint operational capabilities across domains, a central requirement for sustained high-intensity operations rather than symbolic manoeuvres.

The spokesperson described the operation as a “stern warning” to Taiwan independence forces, calling it a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity. The emphasis on “all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain” marks a notable escalation in rhetoric, suggesting an intent to project control not only around Taiwan but also across surrounding sea and air corridors.

From a market perspective, the announcement reinforces a shift from episodic drills toward more complex, extended exercises that explicitly reference blockade-style tactics. While similar operations in the past have not disrupted trade flows, the framing raises sensitivity around shipping routes, insurance costs, and technology supply chains, particularly semiconductors, should such exercises become more frequent or prolonged.

Asian markets have historically absorbed Taiwan-related military headlines with limited immediate repricing unless accompanied by operational spillover or political escalation. However, the duration of the exercise, its codename, and its explicit operational objectives may sustain a modest geopolitical risk premium, particularly for regional equities and currencies.

For now, investors are likely to monitor whether the drills remain time-bound and contained, or whether follow-on operations are announced. A transition from scheduled exercises to rolling deployments would mark a more material shift in the regional risk environment.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:

• China announces major PLA drills around Taiwan on December 30

• Exercises include live-fire activities in surrounding waters and airspace

• Drills run from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time

• Markets view the move as a familiar geopolitical risk signal

• Focus remains on whether exercises are extended or escalated

China announced it will conduct major military drills around Taiwan on December 30, underscoring persistent geopolitical tensions in the region and keeping markets alert to potential escalation risks, even as no immediate disruption to trade or shipping has been signalled.

According to a statement, the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command will carry out large-scale exercises from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time, covering designated waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The drills will include live-fire activities, a detail that typically heightens investor sensitivity given the proximity to key shipping lanes and semiconductor supply chains.

The Eastern Theater Command is responsible for military operations focused on Taiwan and the East China Sea, making its involvement closely watched by regional governments and financial markets alike. While Beijing regularly conducts exercises in the area, the inclusion of live firing often signals a firmer show of force, reinforcing strategic pressure without crossing into direct confrontation.

For markets, the announcement revives a familiar risk backdrop rather than introducing a new shock. Asian equities and currencies have historically absorbed similar headlines with limited immediate impact unless drills are extended, expanded, or paired with explicit political messaging. However, traders remain sensitive to any developments that could disrupt regional stability or global supply chains, particularly those tied to advanced manufacturing and shipping.

Taiwan remains central to global technology production, and any perceived increase in military risk tends to support defensive positioning across regional assets while underpinning safe-haven flows during periods of heightened uncertainty. At the same time, past episodes suggest that short-dated geopolitical premiums often fade quickly in the absence of follow-through.

The timing, confined to a single trading day, suggests the drills are intended as a controlled demonstration rather than a sustained escalation. Nonetheless, the use of live fire keeps attention firmly on cross-strait dynamics and reinforces the need for markets to monitor official communications closely.

Until further details emerge, investors are likely to treat the exercises as a reminder of underlying geopolitical risks rather than a catalyst for repricing, with attention turning to whether additional drills or political statements follow in coming days.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:

• China signals a more proactive fiscal stance for 2026

• Policy focus shifts toward consumption, innovation and social support

• Authorities aim to reduce reliance on exports and lift domestic confidence

• Growth target around 5% likely to be retained

• Fiscal policy expected to play a central stabilising role

China’s fiscal stance is set to turn more forcefully supportive in 2026, with the government signalling a renewed push to revive domestic demand, accelerate technological innovation and strengthen the social safety net as the economy continues to grapple with weak confidence at home.

In a statement released Sunday after a two-day policy meeting, the China Ministry of Finance said fiscal policy would be “more proactive” next year, reaffirming priorities that include boosting consumption, expanding investment and nurturing new sources of growth. The messaging comes as global trading partners continue to urge Beijing to rebalance away from export-led growth and address structural weaknesses in domestic demand.

The ministry said it would actively expand investment in what it described as “new productive forces,” a phrase commonly used by policymakers to refer to advanced manufacturing, digital industries and emerging technologies. Supporting innovation and fostering new growth engines will be a core focus, alongside policies aimed at improving people’s overall development and economic resilience.

Strengthening the social security system also featured prominently in the ministry’s agenda. Authorities pledged to improve access to healthcare and education, measures seen as crucial to easing household precautionary saving and encouraging consumers to spend more freely. China’s prolonged property downturn has weighed heavily on sentiment, reinforcing the need for policies that stabilise expectations and rebuild confidence among households.

Beyond demand support, the ministry outlined broader structural goals for 2026, including deeper integration between urban and rural economies and further progress toward a greener growth model. These initiatives align with longer-term efforts to shift China’s economy toward more sustainable and balanced development, even as near-term growth pressures persist.

Earlier this month, senior leaders reiterated their commitment to a “proactive” fiscal policy designed to stimulate domestic demand while maintaining relatively strong headline growth. The latest comments from the finance ministry reinforce that message, signalling that fiscal support will remain a cornerstone of China’s macro strategy into the year ahead.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:

• European and US leaders report “good progress” in Ukraine peace discussions

• Trump reiterates talks are close, but admits key territorial issues remain

• Security guarantees largely agreed, though not yet finalised

• Europe stresses need for ironclad guarantees from day one

• Markets remain cautious about pricing a full peace dividend

—

Momentum around Ukraine peace talks appeared to build further over the weekend, adding fresh colour to President Donald Trump’s earlier claim that negotiations are in the “final stages,” though markets will remain cautious about declaring a true geopolitical inflection point.

Following Trump’s comments after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European leaders confirmed a coordinated push to consolidate progress. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she had held a one-hour call with Trump, Zelenskyy and several European leaders to discuss the latest peace negotiations, describing the talks as constructive and pointing to “good progress.”

Von der Leyen stressed that Europe is ready to continue working closely with Ukraine and the United States, while emphasising that any agreement must be underpinned by “ironclad” security guarantees from day one — language that mirrors Trump’s earlier promise of a “strong” security arrangement as part of any deal.

In London, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also participated in the discussions, with leaders commending Trump for progress achieved so far. The coordinated messaging suggests growing alignment among Western partners, at least on process, even as key substantive issues remain unresolved.

Trump himself struck an upbeat but qualified tone. He said negotiations were “getting a lot closer” following what he described as a “terrific” meeting with Zelenskyy, while acknowledging that one or two “thorny issues” remain — notably territorial questions, which he said were not yet resolved but could be settled. Trump suggested the outcome of the talks could become clearer within “a few weeks,” reinforcing the sense of urgency flagged in his earlier remarks.

On security guarantees, Zelenskyy said U.S.–Ukraine assurances were “100% agreed,” while Trump characterised them as 95% settled — a small but telling divergence that highlights how close, yet incomplete, the talks remain. Trump also said Russia would be involved in Ukraine’s reconstruction and claimed Washington would find ways to overcome President Vladimir Putin’s resistance to a ceasefire.

For markets, the narrative still resembles cautious optimism rather than a confirmed “peace dividend.” As highlighted in the earlier brief, the euro could benefit if investors begin to price in lower energy costs and a reduced geopolitical risk premium, while oil prices could remain under pressure. However, until concrete milestones — such as a scheduled in-person Trump-Putin meeting or a signed framework — emerge, investors are likely to treat the headlines as incremental progress rather than a decisive regime shift.

—-

Early EUR/USD trade has the pair not a lot changed from late Friday circa 1.1765 and thereabouts. Do be aware that at this time of year many professional traders are away from the market, leaving wholesale participation light.

Oil futures will reopen for the week at the top of the hour, 1800 US Eastern time. The same ‘light participation’ comments apply to Globex also.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TL;DR summary:

• Industrial profits fell 13.1% y/y in November, the steepest decline in over a year

• Weak domestic demand and factory-gate deflation outweighed export resilience

• Coal sector profits slumped sharply, dragging aggregate performance

• Autos and high-tech manufacturing remained relative bright spots

• Markets continue to expect further policy support in 2026 to stabilise growth

China’s industrial sector suffered its sharpest profit contraction in more than a year in November, underscoring the strain from weak domestic demand even as exports showed relative resilience. Official data released over the weekend showed profits at industrial firms fell 13.1% year-on-year,

• accelerating sharply from a 5.5% decline in October
• and marking the steepest drop in 14 months.

For the first eleven months of the year, industrial profits rose just 0.1%,

• slowing sharply from 1.9% growth recorded through October
• major drag from the coal mining and washing industry, where profits plunged more than 47%, reflecting falling prices and subdued domestic demand

Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics point to continued pressure on corporate margins from persistent factory-gate deflation and sluggish household consumption. The deterioration came despite better-than-expected export performance, highlighting an uneven recovery increasingly reliant on external demand rather than domestic momentum.

Sector performance was uneven. The automotive industry posted a 7.5% rise in profits, while high-tech manufacturing stood out with a 10.0% increase, signalling that policy-backed “new economy” segments continue to outperform traditional heavy industry.

In a statement accompanying the data, NBS chief statistician Yu Weining said the profitability recovery still requires stronger foundations amid global uncertainty and ongoing structural adjustment.

Analysts say the profit slump is consistent with broader cooling in activity late in the year:

• soft domestic demand remains the main drag
• there could be some improvement in profitability if firms scale back excessive investment under Beijing’s push against industrial “involution”
• the export sector may be some relief.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We are all is trying to gauge if this is the “Peace Dividend” moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster.

• Trump says they are in the “final stages” of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal.
• Promises a “strong” security agreement is coming.
• He’s calling European leaders today and plans to call Putin immediately after his current meeting.
• “I don’t have a deadline,” but the pace suggests he wants this settled soon

The “final stages” comment is the potentially a positive one for the euro. If the market starts to actually believe a ceasefire is imminent, watch for EUR/USD to catch a bid on the hope of lower energy costs and an end to the “war discount” on European growth. I would also expect even more downward pressure on oil prices.

We might also see better risk appetite in general but given the timing of these headlines and that lack of real impacts on global growth, I’m not so sure. Defense companies could also weaken.

The “Putin is very serious about peace” is a line we’ve heard before. The market will need to see more than just a phone call to start pricing in a structural shift in geopolitics. Keep an eye on the headlines—if an in-person meeting with Putin actually gets scheduled “soon,” it could be.

Headlines from Trump:

• Will speak to the European leaders

• We’re in the final stages of talking

• There are economic benefits to Ukraine

• Says Putin is very serious about peace

• Can call Europeans today

• Says security agreement will be strong

• There will be a security agreement

• I don’t have deadline

• Calling Putin after meeting

• Will have a great meeting today

• When asked if he will meet Putin again soon, says ‘depends’

• Think both Ukraine, Russian presidents want to make a deal

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior week 224K revised to 224K
• The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 750
  from the previous week’s unrevised average of 217,500
• Continuing claims 1.923M vs 1.900 estimate.
• Prior week 1.897M revised to 1.885M
• The 4-week
  moving average was 1,893,750, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s
  average was revised down by 3,000 from 1,902,000 to 1,899,000.

Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength. Released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the report is closely watched by economists and markets alike, with particular emphasis on the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility and provides a clearer view of underlying labor-market trends.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 13 were in Rhode Island (+452), West Virginia
(+325), Connecticut (+128), Mississippi (+57), and New Mexico (+51), while the largest decreases were in Illinois
(-7,242), New York (-5,720), Pennsylvania (-5,129), Minnesota (-4,361), and Georgia (-4,325).

Yesterday, ADP released their weekly 4-week moving average:

• ADP Pulse for the week ending December 6 comes in at 11.5K vs a revised 17.5K last week

The ADP released their monthly report for November earlier in the month and it showed a net decline for the month at 32K. The report yesterday suggests a rebound in December.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I spoke about this issue back in November already here: Here’s another reason why the AI trade might need a bit of rethinking

So, is 2026 going to be the year where that narrative takes over markets and we all have to redefine what it means to be in the AI trade?

Perhaps so. In reading the backdrop to the linked article above, it is clear that the real bottleneck and limitation to the development of AI isn’t coding or silicon. It’s all about electrical power and the physical capacity to access it.

In repeating the quote from Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella:

“The biggest issue we’re now having is not a compute glut. It’s power. You may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that you can’t plug in – in fact, that is my problem today. It’s not a supply issue of chips. It is actually the fact that I don’t have warm shells to plug into.”

As everyone is chasing data centers now, the lead time and wait time to get all of that done has increased dramatically. Some of the wait time has even stretched out to five to seven years. And let’s be real, the tech companies involved don’t have that kind of time to wait and find out.

As such, some of them are pretty much forced to become their own utility providers. That is not to mention the likes of Nvidia also facing risks of supplying warehouse after warehouse full of chips that cannot be turned on because of capacity issues.

If the first half of the AI rally since 2023 was all about chips and faster, more intelligent programming, 2026 might be the year it all gets redefined to focus on the more bland stuff that is used to make and power these machines. It might just be the year of electrical transformers and the power grid.

And in focusing on that, firms like Vertiv, Schneider, Eaton, and perhaps even Siemens might steal more headlines in due time. If anything, keep an eye out on Schneider and Eaton as they have an edge in manufacturing their own circuit breakers.

As for Vertiv, the firm saw its share price hit a low of $53.60 earlier in the year but has risen by over 200% now to $166.25. Talk about a surge.

And amid all these names, let’s not forget to point to the potential surge in copper prices that could take place if this narrative takes hold. In a world that’s also involving electric vehicles, the AI industry now has to compete as well for the same raw materials in keeping up with the lightning speed progress.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prop Trading Challenges for Newbies: How to Spot Unfair Rules and Platform Risk Before You Pay

If you are taking prop trading challenges, you are not only trading the market. You are also trading the prop firm’s rules, technology, and support quality.

Two fresh examples show why this matters:

• A major futures prop firm faced trader backlash after repeated platform outages and trading anomalies that reportedly left some traders unable to open or close positions. The CEO publicly acknowledged the issue and referenced a January deadline to make things right.

• Another futures prop firm faced a wave of complaints after a reported retroactive rule change that affected things like trade holding time and profit split, with traders claiming trades that were valid under the old rules got penalized under the new ones. This is like the court telliing you, you are now charged for doing something legal yesterday, after changing the rule today. Talk about absurd, right?

If you want the original reporting, here are the two Finance Magnates articles:

• Topstep Faces Prop Traders’ Wrath due to Repeated Outages, CEO Sets January Deadline for a Fix

• Prop Firm FundingTicks Faces Massive Backlash after “Retroactive Rule Change”

Below is a newbie-friendly guide to protect yourself from the 2 biggest non-market risks in prop trading: platform failures and rule surprises.

First, a quick glossary (so the rest makes sense)

• Challenge / evaluation: The paid phase where you must hit profit targets while obeying risk rules.

• Funded account: The phase after passing the evaluation (some firms call it funded, some call it “performance” or “pro”).

• Profit split: How much of your profits you keep (example: 80% to trader, 20% to firm).

• Drawdown: The max loss allowed. This is usually what fails accounts, not the profit target.

• Scalping: Very short-term trading aiming for small moves, often held seconds to minutes.

• Minimum hold time: A rule that forces you to keep trades open at least X time (example: one minute). This directly impacts scalpers.

The 2 hidden risks that can blow a challenge (even if your strategy is good)

Risk 1: Platform outages and execution problems

If a platform freezes, rejects orders, or disconnects at the wrong time, it can do real damage:

• you cannot enter

• you cannot exit

• you cannot manage risk

• your account can hit drawdown even if your trade idea was fine

Finance Magnates reported that traders complained about being unable to open or close positions during outages on Topstep’s only platform, TopstepX, and some traders claimed accounts were blown due to those issues.

Important detail for beginners: you can have the best setup in the world, but if you cannot execute, your edge does not matter.

What to look for before buying a challenge:

• Does the firm rely on a single platform only?

• Do they have a public track record of incidents and how they handle them?

• When incidents happen, do they acknowledge quickly and clearly?

• Do they have a consistent policy for disputes tied to outages?

In the Topstep story, Finance Magnates noted that Trustpilot scores fell and that the company responded to only a small portion of negative reviews, which matters because it is one proxy for how seriously a firm treats support and reputation.

Risk 2: Rule changes, especially retroactive ones

Rules can change in any business. The key question is how they change, and whether they apply to accounts that were opened under earlier terms.

Finance Magnates reported that FundingTicks faced backlash after reportedly changing rules retroactively, including a minimum one-minute hold time and a reduction in profit split.

Why this is a big deal:

• If rules are applied retroactively, trades that were valid yesterday can be punished today.

• Your past trading can be re-judged under new constraints.

• Your expected payouts can change even if you did nothing “wrong” under the rules you agreed to.

In that same report, Finance Magnates described traders claiming that accounts were breached or profits reduced if trades violated the current rules, even if those trades occurred before the change.

For newbies, the simple takeaway is this:

• Your biggest risk is not always your strategy.

• Sometimes the risk is whether the goalposts move after you already started running.

A simple “Prop Firm Due Diligence Checklist” for challenge takers

Use this before you pay for any evaluation.

A) Technology and uptime checks

• Do they offer more than one trading platform, or is it a single point of failure?

• Do they post incident updates (Discord, status page, email updates)?

• Do traders report frequent order issues, disconnects, or slippage spikes?

• Do they have a clear dispute process when platform issues occur?

Finance Magnates reported trader complaints of not being able to open or close positions during outages in the Topstep situation.

B) Rule stability checks

• Do they clearly state when new rules take effect?

• Do they explicitly say whether rules apply to existing accounts?

• Do they change core rules often (hold times, payout rules, profit split, withdrawal caps)?

• Do they provide a change log or versioning, or do you have to “discover” changes?

In the FundingTicks case, the report listed multiple rule changes including the one-minute minimum hold period and a change in profit split compared with earlier terms.

C) Incentives check (this matters more than most people think)

Prop firms make money in different ways. Some earn mostly from:

• challenge fees

• resets and retries

• data, partnerships, and platform economics

• successful traders who scale

Here is my personal note on how I look at it:
I pay close attention to which firms actually provide a real path to trading on live accounts, or at least use some form of risk mirroring (where trades may be replicated or risk-managed beyond a purely simulated environment), versus firms that appear to keep traders in simulated environments indefinitely. I also watch which firms seem genuinely interested in developing real traders, not just collecting reset revenues.

This does not require you to “know the inside story.” You can often infer a lot from:

• how transparent they are about account progression

• how consistent payouts are handled

• how they treat traders during problems

• how often rules shift in ways that reduce payouts

What to do if a platform outage happens during your challenge

This is practical and important.

1. Screenshot and screen record

• include timestamps

• capture the error, rejected orders, disconnect messages, and your open positions

2. Export your trade logs

• fills, order history, and account statements

3. Save the firm’s announcements

• Discord messages, status updates, emails

4. Contact support immediately

• keep it factual

• include evidence

• ask what remedy exists if the outage is acknowledged

In the Topstep report, Finance Magnates noted claims that the firm did not always acknowledge outages, which is exactly why documentation matters.

What to do if rules change mid-challenge

1. Stop trading and reread the rules
   This is boring but smart. Most challenge failures come from breaking a rule by accident.

2. Ask one direct question
   “Do the new rules apply to my existing account, including past trades?”

3. Get the answer in writing
   Ticket response, email, or a saved official message.

4. Decide whether to continue
   If the rule change destroys your style (example: a one-minute hold time when you scalp), it can be cheaper to pause than to fight the rules.

Finance Magnates reported that the FundingTicks changes included a minimum one-minute hold time for scalpers, which can directly impact short-term trading styles.

A friendly invitation if you want trade ideas and prop-friendly setups

If you want a place to follow periodic trade ideas (including scalp-style ideas that can fit prop trading rules depending on the firm), you are welcome to join the @investingLiveStocks Telegram channel here:
https://t.me/investingLiveStocks

It is a good way to stay in the loop and compare how different firms’ rules affect real-world execution.

Final reminder for newbies (keep this mindset)

Prop challenges are not only about being right on direction.
They are about surviving a ruleset consistently.

Your goal is to choose a firm where:

• the platform is reliable enough that you can manage risk

• the rules are stable enough that you can build a repeatable process

• the business model aligns with keeping good traders trading

And when drama hits the industry, treat it as a learning moment, not entertainment.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.