Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.76%, Shanghai Composite up 0.72%, Hang Seng up 2.01% ASX up 1.34%
• Commodities : Gold at $3242.35 (-0.09%), Silver at $31.47 (-0.08%), Brent Oil at $64.65 (-0.45%), WTI Oil at $61.46 (-0.34%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.471, UK 10-year yield at 4.7525, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5272

News & Data:

• (USD) Core PPI m/m  -0.1%  to 0.3%  expected
• (USD) PPI m/m  -0.4%  to 0.2%  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets surged Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump paused tariffs on certain consumer electronics, lifting investor sentiment. Hong Kong led regional gains, with the Hang Seng Index climbing 2.31% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.52%. In mainland China, the CSI 300 edged up 0.47%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.92%, while the broader Topix index gained 1.63%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.98%, and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 1.82%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.35% in late trading. Indian markets were closed due to a public holiday.

The tariff pause includes exemptions on smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and other components, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance issued late Friday. However, both Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled Sunday that the exemptions may be temporary. Trump stated via Truth Social that these items remain “subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs” and are now in a different tariff category.

Several Asia-Pacific countries are preparing for trade talks with the U.S. this week. Trump is prioritizing negotiations with key partners like Vietnam, India, South Korea, and Japan as part of efforts to counter China’s influence. Japan’s top trade official Akazawa Ryosei is set to visit the U.S. for discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to NHK.

U.S. futures also rose, following a strong close last Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 1.81%, the Dow Jones rose 1.56%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.06%.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Wholesale Sales m/m

The post Monday 14th April 2025: Asia-Pacific Stocks Surge as Trump Eases Tariff Pressure first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support. Additionally, the price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud, which suggests a bearish trend

Pivot: 100.25
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 97.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.90
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 1.1526
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.1200
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1686
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 158.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 155.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 168.11
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8613

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8490
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8754
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3258
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3040
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3412
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 183.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 194.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 0.8370
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.7860
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8723
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 142.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 137.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 147.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3817

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound. 

1st support: 1.3610
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3946
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6404
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6205

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6537
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising toward the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5911
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.5794

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6025

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,856.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 39,550.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,629.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 19,513.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 18,262.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 21,523.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,528.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,263.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 88,147.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 76,555.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,030.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,808.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,456.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,102.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 62.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 57.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise towards the pivot in the short term before reversing off and falling towards 1st support

Pivot: 3299.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3137.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3513.76
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Monday 14th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 14/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally into Weekend – Nasdaq up 2%

US stock markets rallied into the weekend on Friday, closing out another hectic week of trading. The Dow rose 1.50%, the S&P gained 1.81%, and the Nasdaq pushed up 2.06% by the end of another choppy session. US Treasury yields climbed again, locking in their biggest weekly gains in nearly two decades. The 2-year closed up 9.8 basis points at 3.960%, and the 10-year finished up 6.5 basis points at 4.490%, having touched nearly 4.6% during the day. Despite rising yields, the dollar plummeted to fresh annual lows, with the DXY down another 0.65% to close at 100.10. Oil prices rebounded, with Brent up 2.26% to $64.76 and WTI up 2.38% to $61.50. Gold continued its rally, gaining nearly 2% on the day to close at a record $3,235.66 an ounce.

Dollar and Treasuries Under Pressure from Trump

Extreme volatility has rocked global markets in recent weeks as President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, triggering widespread financial panic. Two of the world’s traditional safe-haven assets—the dollar and US Treasuries—have been under pressure, with yields experiencing their biggest weekly move in nearly 20 years. Normally, such conditions would push the dollar higher. However, the US 10-year yield has surged nearly 19% from a low of 3.86% on April 4th to a high of 4.592% on Friday, while the DXY has dropped 4%, falling from 103.18 to a low of 99.01 in the same period. Traders will continue to monitor the ongoing flight from US safe-haven assets, but for now, it’s shaping up to be a “sell dollars, wear diamonds” environment.

Quiet Calendar Day to Start a Busy Week

The macroeconomic calendar is light today, so traders expect geopolitical developments to drive market flows. Despite the calm start, there’s plenty of information for investors to digest before the calendar picks up tomorrow in a holiday-shortened week. Already, China’s New Loans data (released Sunday) beat expectations (3,640 billion vs. expected 3,020 billion), which may bolster the positive sentiment from Wall Street in today’s Asian session. However, there’s little else in terms of Tier 1 data in the first two trading sessions of the week. The US session is also quiet on data releases, but we will hear from Fed members Barkin, Waller, and Harker later today, and investors will be looking for further reassurance amid current market conditions.

The post General Market Analysis – 14/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Markets experienced another turbulent week as tariff updates from the United States and other countries continued to roil financial products.

Markets look set to remain volatile in a holiday-shortened week as traders contend with further global trade updates, a raft of fundamental data, and some key central bank rate decisions. Expect moves to come thick and fast in the coming days before relatively calm conditions towards the end of the week, with many financial centres closing for the Easter holidays.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It’s a relatively quiet start to the trading week in calendar terms, with little of note on the cards for the first two trading sessions. There is no major data scheduled in the New York day, but we do hear from Fed members Barkin, Waller, and Harker during the afternoon.

The calendar ramps up significantly on Tuesday with some key data releases throughout the day. The Asian session will focus on Australian markets, with the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes out early. The European session begins with UK employment data before attention shifts to Germany for the latest ZEW numbers. In the New York session, focus moves north of the border for key Canadian CPI numbers, released alongside US Empire State Manufacturing data.

Wednesday looks set to be another busy day, with the Asian session kicking off with a major Chinese data drop including GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures. More key UK data follows, with CPI data due out early in the London session. The US session looks particularly active: the early focus will be on US Retail Sales data, which should serve as an early barometer for Main Street sentiment regarding tariffs. Attention then moves to Ottawa for the Bank of Canada’s rate decision and press conference. Later in the day, we also hear from the Fed’s Hammack, and more importantly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

It’s an early start for traders on Thursday in Asia, with New Zealand CPI numbers due near the opening bell, followed by Australian employment data. The highlight of the week likely comes midway through the London session, when the ECB updates its interest rate. Later, the New York session brings weekly US unemployment claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Expect holiday trading conditions on Friday, with the vast majority of the world’s major trading centres closed for Good Friday. Many will then enjoy a full long weekend, with markets also closed on Easter Monday.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 14 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Down Again as Tariff Concerns Persist – Nasdaq Down 4.3%

US markets took another sharp downside correction in trading yesterday as investors continued to evaluate the growing global trade war. All three of the major US indices dropped hard, the Dow off 2.50%, the S&P down 3.46% and the Nasdaq down 4.31%. The dollar crashed against all the major currencies as FX players priced in more pain for the US, the DXY down 1.95% on the day to 100.98. Treasury yields were mixed again after lower inflation data in the US, the 2-year down 4.6 basis points to 3.862%, while the 10-year gained 9.3 basis points to 4.425%. Oil prices dropped back again, Brent down 3.13% to $63.43, WTI down 3.66% to $60.07 a barrel. Gold flew higher again on haven flow, notching another all-time high, gaining 2.49% on the day to close at $3,176.64.

Gold Shines Again in Uncertain Times – Up 2.5%

Gold once again hit a fresh all-time high yesterday as the euphoria of President Trump’s tariff reprieve fell flat after just one day. Traders are now looking at more uncertainty in the market as the US President continues to change his mind on trade issues, and gold has been the recipient of large haven flows. As the dollar continues to drop in the wake of a pending US recession, gold becomes more attractive from a portfolio perspective and investors continue to look for levels to buy. The world’s favourite precious metal is now up nearly 23% since its 2025 low on the very first trading day of the year, and if the global trade war continues, it is set to move even higher. Investors now feel that only a complete turnaround from the US in terms of tariffs will enable a good correction for gold, and while the uncertainty and risks continue to pile up, they will continue to buy haven products, with gold at the top of their list.

More Data on the Calendar Today

There is more data due out today on the economic calendar, but traders are expecting geopolitical concerns to once again outweigh fundamental updates. There is nothing of note due out in the Asian session, but the focus will be firmly on the UK once Europe opens, with several data drops scheduled, the GDP data being the highlight. Expectation is for the data to show a meagre 0.1% month-on-month increase, and anything significantly off that will see more moves in the pound. Once again, we have big data coming out in the US shortly after the New York open, with PPI numbers set to be released. The core number is expected to show a 0.3% increase, while the headline figure is expected to be slightly lower at 0.2%. Later in the day, we also have University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data, and the week will be closed out with speeches from Fed members Musalem and Williams.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 11/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Following the overnight announcement of the 90-day tariff delay for many countries bar China, U.S. goods were hit with reciprocal tariffs of 84% by China which came into effect during this session – this duty for American imports into China originally stood at 34%. Market volatility and trade tensions continue to remain elevated, keeping traders on their toes. The dollar index (DXY) drifted lower toward 102.50 while spot prices for gold soared above $3,100 in an attempt to eclipse the all-time high of $3,167.72/oz which occurred on the 2nd of April.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will be speaking at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner, where she may touch on the ongoing trade policy uncertainties and how they would impact the Australian economy. The Aussie rebounded strongly on Wednesday, rallying over 3% and this upward momentum continued as it raced toward 0.6200 by midday in Asia.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After accelerating from September 2024 till January of this year, Inflationary pressures eased in February as both headline and core CPI moderated lower. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of slower price increases, which would cause the dollar to come under further overhead pressures. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained relatively stable over the past five weeks, indicating a resilient labour market. Claims decreased to 219k in last week’s report while the latest estimate points to 223k, matching the current 4-week average.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After accelerating from September 2024 till January of this year, Inflationary pressures eased in February as both headline and core CPI moderated lower. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of slower price increases, which would cause the dollar to come under further overhead pressures. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained relatively stable over the past five weeks, indicating a resilient labour market. Claims decreased to 219k in last week’s report while the latest estimate points to 223k, matching the current 4-week average. Demand for gold picked up noticeably on Wednesday as spot prices surged well over 3.5%, hitting an overnight of $3,099.50/oz. This precious metal should remain elevated as the day progresses.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Gov Bullock’s Speech (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will be speaking at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner, where she may touch on the ongoing trade policy uncertainties and how they would impact the Australian economy. The Aussie rebounded strongly on Wednesday, rallying over 3% and this upward momentum continued as it raced toward 0.6200 by midday in Asia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following Wednesday’s rate cut of 25 basis points (bps), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.50%. Despite a dovish policy move, the Kiwi rallied over 2.3% to climb above 0.5600. This currency pair remained elevated as Asian markets came online, hovering around 0.5640.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen was ditched on Wednesday following an announcement by the White House to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries, causing USD/JPY to surge nearly 3% off its lows. This currency pair rose above 148 before sliding under this level in early trading on Thursday. However, demand for safe-haven assets remained fairly robust as USD/JPY resumed its downfall to slip under 147.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

It was a pretty volatile day for the Euro on Wednesday as it initially rallied 1.3% to reach an overnight high of 1.1095 before falling sharply to dip under 1.0920. However, this currency pair stabilized around 1.0950 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session before climbing toward 1.1100.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc was dumped on Wednesday following an announcement by the White House to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries, causing USD/CHF to surge well over 2.5% off its lows. However, demand for safe-haven assets remained fairly robust as Asian markets came online on Thursday, with USD/CHF dipping under 0.8550 after reaching an overnight high of 0.8583.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Demand for the pound gained further traction on Wednesday as Cable jumped nearly 0.9% to hit an overnight high of 1.2864. This currency pair continued rising as Asian markets came online on Thursday, buoyed by lacklustre bids for the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie strengthened overnight as the White House’s announcement to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries provided a huge relief to financial markets. Coupled with a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, USD/CAD dived over 1.3% – this currency pair was hovering above 1.4080 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Following the announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff U-turn, metals and energy commodities soared on Wednesday as WTI oil reversed off its lows at $55.12 to rally over 14% to hit an overnight high of $62.93 per barrel. This broad-based rally amongst commodities and equities was sparked by the White House temporarily enacting lower tariffs on dozens of countries while further increasing duties on China. Meanwhile, the EIA crude oil inventories increased for the second consecutive week as 2.6M barrels of crude were added to storage, following a huge rise of 6.2M barrels in the prior week, highlighting the ongoing weakness in demand. Macro fundamentals continue to be poor and headwinds are likely to persist for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 8.24%, Shanghai Composite up 0.92%, Hang Seng up 1.55% ASX up 4.84%
• Commodities : Gold at $3139.35 (1.94%), Silver at $31.087 (2.48%), Brent Oil at $64.65 (-1.45%), WTI Oil at $61.46 (-1.34%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.275, UK 10-year yield at 4.7885, Germany 10-year yield at 2.5795

News & Data:

• (USD) Crude Oil Inventories 2.6M  to 2.2M  expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets mostly advanced on Thursday, mirroring Wall Street’s strongest rally since 2008. The surge came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariff hikes for all countries except China.

Japan led the regional gains, with the Nikkei 225 jumping 8.35% and the broader Topix climbing 7.59%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 5.38%, while the tech-heavy Kosdaq added 5.09%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 followed with a 4.67% gain.

Investors are keeping a close eye on Chinese markets amid escalating trade tensions. The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to Beijing’s plan to impose an 84% levy on American goods. Despite this, China’s CSI 300 rose 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.92%, trimming earlier advances. Indian markets were shut for a public holiday.

U.S. stock futures also climbed after Trump’s tariff pause announcement sparked a massive buying wave on Wall Street. The S&P 500 surged 9.52% to close at 5,456.90 — its largest one-day gain since the 2008 financial crisis and third-largest post-WWII. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 2,962.86 points, or 7.87%, to finish at 40,608.45, marking its strongest percentage gain since March 2020. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite leapt 12.16% to end at 17,124.97, registering its biggest single-day rise since January 2001 and its second-highest on record.

Overall, investor sentiment surged globally, fueled by the unexpected tariff relief and optimism for eased trade tensions.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 10th April 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Surge as Wall Street Rallies on Tariff Pause first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish 

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 103.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 101.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 104.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1020
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.0851
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1144
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 158.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 155.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8462

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8332
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8644
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.2881
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement,  indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.2695
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3163
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 189.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 186.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 192.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish Bounce off this level and rise toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.8399
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8294
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8620
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 144.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 142.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 148.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4165

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.4063
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4263
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6115
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6069

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6192
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5612
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5518

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5720

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.8% retracement and the 161.8% extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 39,318.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,180.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 21,148.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 20,358.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,114.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,385.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,242.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,661.75

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 80,324.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 76,086.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 86,511.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,587.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 1,438.35
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,828.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 59.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 55.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 65.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is testing the pivot and could make a bearish reversal off this level and fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3092.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3016.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3167.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 10th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Following the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days while further increasing duties on China, it brought a huge relief to financial markets that triggered a broad-based rally in energy and metal commodities as well as equity markets. Spot prices for gold surged well over 3.5%, hitting an overnight of $3,099.50/oz while the dollar index (DXY) swung wildly between 101.90 and 103.30.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest the latest tariff salvo from the White House, the DXY edged lower toward 102.50 while gold prices remained elevated. Despite the overnight cheer in markets, volatility remains elevated and uncertainties continue to persist across all asset classes.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After accelerating from September 2024 till January of this year, Inflationary pressures eased in February as both headline and core CPI moderated lower. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of slower price increases, which would cause the dollar to come under further overhead pressures. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained relatively stable over the past five weeks, indicating a resilient labour market. Claims decreased to 219k in last week’s report while the latest estimate points to 223k, matching the current 4-week average.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

CPI (12:30 pm GMT)

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After accelerating from September 2024 till January of this year, Inflationary pressures eased in February as both headline and core CPI moderated lower. The forecasts for March point to a second consecutive month of slower price increases, which would cause the dollar to come under further overhead pressures. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have remained relatively stable over the past five weeks, indicating a resilient labour market. Claims decreased to 219k in last week’s report while the latest estimate points to 223k, matching the current 4-week average. Demand for gold picked up noticeably on Wednesday as spot prices surged well over 3.5%, hitting an overnight of $3,099.50/oz. This precious metal should remain elevated as the day progresses.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

RBA Gov Bullock’s Speech (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock will be speaking at the Chief Executive Women 40th Anniversary Melbourne Annual Dinner, where she may touch on the ongoing trade policy uncertainties and how they would impact the Australian economy. The Aussie rebounded strongly on Wednesday, rallying over 3%. This currency pair edged lower toward 0.6100 at the beginning of the Asia session but should remain elevated due to weakness in the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following Wednesday’s rate cut of 25 basis points (bps), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.50%. Despite a dovish policy move, the Kiwi rallied over 2.3% to climb above 0.5600. This currency pair remained elevated as Asian markets came online, hovering around 0.5640.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen was ditched on Wednesday following an announcement by the White House to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries, causing USD/JPY to surge nearly 3% off its lows. This currency pair rose above 148 before sliding under this level in early trading on Thursday. However, demand for safe-haven assets remained fairly robust as USD/JPY resumed its downfall to slip under 147.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

It was a pretty volatile day for the Euro on Wednesday as it initially rallied 1.3% to reach an overnight high of 1.1095 before falling sharply to dip under 1.0920. However, this currency pair stabilized around 1.0950 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session before climbing toward 1.1100.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc was dumped on Wednesday following an announcement by the White House to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries, causing USD/CHF to surge well over 2.5% off its lows. However, demand for safe-haven assets remained fairly robust as Asian markets came online on Thursday, with USD/CHF dipping under 0.8550 after reaching an overnight high of 0.8583.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Demand for the pound gained further traction on Wednesday as Cable jumped nearly 0.9% to hit an overnight high of 1.2864. This currency pair continued rising as Asian markets came online on Thursday, buoyed by lacklustre bids for the greenback.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie strengthened overnight as the White House’s announcement to temporarily enact lower tariffs on dozens of countries provided a huge relief to financial markets. Coupled with a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, USD/CAD dived over 1.3% – this currency pair was hovering above 1.4080 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

Following the announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff U-turn, metals and energy commodities soared on Wednesday as WTI oil reversed off its lows at $55.12 to rally over 14% to hit an overnight high of $62.93 per barrel. This broad-based rally amongst commodities and equities was sparked by the White House temporarily enacting lower tariffs on dozens of countries while further increasing duties on China. Meanwhile, the EIA crude oil inventories increased for the second consecutive week as 2.6M barrels of crude were added to storage, following a huge rise of 6.2M barrels in the prior week, highlighting the ongoing weakness in demand. Macro fundamentals continue to be poor and headwinds are likely to persist for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Surge as Trump Hits the Pause Button – Nasdaq up 12%

US stocks surged higher in trading yesterday after President Trump agreed to pause the majority of his tariffs for 90 days, although notably, China is left out of the reprieve. The major US indices all rallied strongly to notch up their best one-day gains in years, with the Dow closing up 7.87%, the S&P up 9.52%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surging 12.16%. US Treasury yields jumped higher as traders dialled back Fed rate cut expectations, particularly on the short end, with the 2-year up 18.2 basis points to 3.908% and the 10-year up 3.9 basis points to 4.331%. Oil prices gained for the first time in five days, Brent up 4.58% to $65.70 and WTI up 4.65% to $62.35, whilst gold also jumped back into recent ranges, up 3.30% to $3,082.16 by the close.

Markets Rejoice at this Trump Backflip

Traders had been waiting a long four trading days for it, but we at last got the backflip from Donald Trump that many of us had been waiting for last night. His about-turn on tariff implementation has led to a surge higher in risk products after a turbulent few days, but now adds more uncertainty to markets going forward. Trump’s decision was probably driven, at least partially, by the chaos that we have seen in markets over the last few days. White House officials are claiming that it is all part of the plan, as it forced other countries to the negotiating table, but not many in the market are buying that particular ‘asset’ at the moment, as Trump had continually advised that tariffs were here to stay. The issue moving forward is how much traders can rely on updates from the administration for long-term trading decisions, or whether they can afford to ignore them in the short term. It can only lead to more volatility as we move forward and more cross-jurisdiction trading opportunities as different deals are made.

Inflation Data in Focus on the Calendar Today

Asian markets are set to open on a much more positive note today after President Trump’s tariff delay. The reaction to those updates from the US session is expected to dominate the coming trading day, although there are some key fundamental data releases that will also have an effect. The Asian session will have a heavy focus on Chinese markets, not only as they were left out of any tariff reprieve, but also as key inflation numbers are due out in the form of CPI (exp 0.0% y/y) and PPI (exp -2.3% y/y) midway through the session. Later in the day in the European session, we hear from RBA Governor Michele Bullock when she speaks in the Melbourne evening, before we then hit the US session and the main data event of the week, the US CPI update. Expectations are for the CPI to show a 0.1% m/m increase, the Core CPI a 0.3% m/m increase, and the year-on-year data to come in at +2.6%. The weekly unemployment claims are also out at the same time, but in the current environment, expect the impact to be relatively short-term as the market continues to react to tariff updates.

The post General Market Analysis – 10/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.