Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.94%, Shanghai Composite down 0.56%, Hang Seng down 1.73% ASX down 0.94%
• Commodities : Gold at $3168.35 (0.80%), Silver at $33.7 (0.48%), Brent Oil at $73.75 (0.15%), WTI Oil at $69.96 (0.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.049, UK 10-year yield at 4.6420, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7240

News & Data:

• (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 155K  to 118K expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets tumbled Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries, including several in the region. The White House shared charts claiming foreign nations impose unfair trade barriers on American goods, citing currency manipulation and tariffs. China now faces an increased tariff rate of 54%, while India, South Korea, and Australia face 26%, 25%, and 10%, respectively. Chris Kushlis, chief emerging markets strategist at T. Rowe Price, said these tariffs could significantly slow economic growth, particularly in trade-dependent economies.

Despite having the largest trade deficit with the U.S., China does not face the highest reciprocal tariffs. Stephen Dover of Franklin Templeton noted that Southeast Asia—previously benefitting from U.S. tariffs on China—now faces some of the highest duties. Markets reacted sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 3.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping 1.58%, and South Korea’s Kospi declining 0.94%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.89%, while India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex also opened lower.

Gold surged to a record $3,148.84 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, U.S. futures slumped amid fears of a global trade war. Dover warned that tariffs could raise household costs by $4,200 annually, potentially slowing consumer spending and U.S. growth in 2025. He added that tariffs would not be effective unless prices increased, posing further risks to the economy.

Despite tariff concerns, Wall Street ended higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.67%, the Nasdaq gained 0.87%, and the Dow added 235 points. However, ongoing volatility and economic uncertainty remain key concerns for global markets.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Trade Balance
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Trade Balance
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims

The post Thursday 3rd April 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Plunge Amid New U.S. Tariffs first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 3 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

The Caixin Services PMI edged higher to 51.9 in March, up from 51.4 in the previous month, surpassing market forecasts of 51.6. The latest report marked the strongest growth in the services sector since last December, as new orders rose the most in three months. This expansion was driven by increases in domestic demand, supported by marketing efforts and a broad improvement in demand conditions. However, employment declined modestly with job losses registering the fastest decline in nearly a year. This better-than-expected PMI result could bring some relief for crude oil, with WTI oil bouncing off today’s low at $69.27 per barrel. This benchmark climbed above $71 by midday in Asia and could attempt to close the gap that was created on early Thursday by the end of this trading week.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Inflationary pressures in Switzerland have dissipated significantly since the fourth quarter of 2022 with consumer inflation easing to an annual rate of 0.3% in February. Price pressures are expected to moderate lower in March, a result that should dampen demand for the Swiss franc but financial markets have been rattled by the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the franc has surged, causing USD/CHF to dive nearly 0.7% overnight.

Composite PMI activity in the Euro Area is anticipated to edge higher from 50.2 in the previous month to 50.4 in March, based on the final estimates. Composite output had returned to expansion in January but growth has been marginal at best. The euro surged overnight to break past 1.0900 with ease and the upward momentum is likely to gain further traction as the day progresses.

The final Composite PMI reading for the U.K. is expected to increase to 52.0 in March from 51.0 in the previous month. This would mark the highest level of PMI activity in six months and could provide further lift for the pound as European trading gets underway.

Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$4.0B in January, the largest since May 2022 and well above market expectations of C$1.3B. Merchandise exports rose 5.5% to a record C$74.5B, while imports increased 2.3% to a record C$70.5B, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise for both. Export growth was driven by motor vehicles and parts; energy products; and consumer goods. However, this surplus is now anticipated to narrow to C$3.4B in February – a drop of 15% – as the ongoing global trade tariffs ratcheted higher.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have remained relatively low and stable over the past four weeks – a sign of a resilient labour market. The latest estimate of 225k points to another week of relatively low claims while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is anticipated to report services activity expanding robustly in March. However, given the latest slew of tariff announcements by U.S. President, financial markets have been turned on their heads with demand for the dollar tanking overnight.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have remained relatively low and stable over the past four weeks – a sign of a resilient labour market. The latest estimate of 225k points to another week of relatively low claims while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is anticipated to report services activity expanding robustly in March. However, given the latest slew of tariff announcements by U.S. President, financial markets have been turned on their heads with demand for safe-haven assets such as gold surging overnight.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie initially dived from 0.6300 to as low as 0.6226 following the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day. However, the Aussie recovered swiftly as demand for the greenback plummeted, triggering a sharp reversal – this currency pair bounced strongly back toward the 0.6300 mark as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day, demand for the greenback tanked to provide a strong boost for the Kiwi. This currency pair rose strongly toward 0.5750 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets, sparking fierce demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen. The ‘risk-off’ sentiment caused USD/JPY to dive under 148 as it shed over 1% overnight – this currency pair continued to slide lower toward 147.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (8:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Composite PMI activity in the Euro Area is anticipated to edge higher from 50.2 in the previous month to 50.4 in March, based on the final estimates. Composite output had returned to expansion in January but growth has been marginal at best. The euro surged overnight to break past 1.0900 with ease and the upward momentum is likely to gain further traction as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI (6:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

Inflationary pressures in Switzerland have dissipated significantly since the fourth quarter of 2022 with consumer inflation easing to an annual rate of 0.3% in February. Price pressures are expected to moderate lower in March, a result that should dampen demand for the Swiss franc but financial markets have been rattled by the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the franc has surged, causing USD/CHF to dive nearly 0.7% overnight – this currency pair was hovering around 0.8770 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (8:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The final Composite PMI reading for the U.K. is expected to increase to 52.0 in March from 51.0 in the previous month. This would mark the highest level of PMI activity in six months and could provide further lift for the pound as European trading gets underway.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$4.0B in January, the largest since May 2022 and well above market expectations of C$1.3B. Merchandise exports rose 5.5% to a record C$74.5B, while imports increased 2.3% to a record C$70.5B, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise for both. Export growth was driven by motor vehicles and parts; energy products; and consumer goods. However, this surplus is now anticipated to narrow to C$3.4B in February – a drop of 15% – as the ongoing global trade tariffs ratcheted higher. However, the Loonie gained overnight as USD/CAD reversed off its highs of 1.4318 and dipped under 1.4300 – this currency pair was sliding toward 1.4250 as Asian markets came online on Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

Caixin Services PMI (1:45 am GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets as concerns over a major global trade war escalated, significantly increasing the probability of a notable slowdown in global economic activity. Despite an exemption of tariffs on imports of oil, gas and refined products, providing some relief to the U.S. oil industry, crude oil prices slumped with WTI oil plunging over 3% as it tumbled towards the mark of $69 per barrel. In addition, the EIA crude oil inventories registered a strong build of 6.2M barrels of crude, exceeding the 6M rise in inventories as reported by the API on Tuesday. After four weeks of robust gains, overhead pressures for this commodity have intensified and prices are now subjected to head lower.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 3 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 102.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 101.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 103.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1004
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 1.0867
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1132
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 162.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 158.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8378
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8324
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8427
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3153
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3007
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3311
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 193.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 190.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8855
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8758
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 149.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 147.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4294

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 1.4156
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4359
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6237
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6194

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6307
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci retracements i.e. the 50% and 78.6% retracements, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5671
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.5637

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5755

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,180.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,080.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 21,528.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 22,728.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap  resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 5,593.30

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 5,385.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,716.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling toward the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 81,319.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 78,564.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,945.64

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,782.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,105.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 70.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 68.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 71.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3177.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 3055.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3220.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 3rd April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 3 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets, sparking fierce demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and of course precious metals such as gold. The ‘risk-off’ sentiment caused USD/JPY to dive under 148 as it shed over 1% while USD/CHF plummeted nearly 0.7% overnight – spot prices for gold surged over 1% as a new intraday high of $3,167.72/oz was recorded. Meanwhile, the dollar index (DXY) plunged over 0.6% to hover around the level of 103.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest the latest tariff salvo, financial markets remain on edge as a ‘risk-off’ mood encompasses overall sentiment. The overnight moves are likely to gain further momentum as the day progresses.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Unemployment claims have remained relatively low and stable over the past four weeks – a sign of a resilient labour market. The latest estimate of 225k points to another week of relatively low claims while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is anticipated to report services activity expanding robustly in March. However, given the latest slew of tariff announcements by U.S. President, financial markets have been turned on their heads with demand for the dollar tanking overnight.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)

ISM Services PMI (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Unemployment claims have remained relatively low and stable over the past four weeks – a sign of a resilient labour market. The latest estimate of 225k points to another week of relatively low claims while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is anticipated to report services activity expanding robustly in March. However, given the latest slew of tariff announcements by U.S. President, financial markets have been turned on their heads with demand for safe-haven assets such as gold surging overnight.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie initially dived from 0.6300 to as low as 0.6226 following the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day. However, the Aussie recovered swiftly as demand for the greenback plummeted, triggering a sharp reversal – this currency pair bounced strongly back toward the 0.6300 mark as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day, demand for the greenback tanked to provide a strong boost for the Kiwi. This currency pair rose strongly toward 0.5750 at the beginning of Thursday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets, sparking fierce demand for safe-haven assets such as the yen. The ‘risk-off’ sentiment caused USD/JPY to dive under 148 as it shed over 1% overnight – this currency pair continued to slide lower toward 147.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Strong Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (8:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Composite PMI activity in the Euro Area is anticipated to edge higher from 50.2 in the previous month to 50.4 in March, based on the final estimates. Composite output had returned to expansion in January but growth has been marginal at best. The euro surged overnight to break past 1.0900 with ease and the upward momentum is likely to gain further traction as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI (6:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

Inflationary pressures in Switzerland have dissipated significantly since the fourth quarter of 2022 with consumer inflation easing to an annual rate of 0.3% in February. Prices pressures are expected to moderate lower in March, a result that should dampen demand for the Swiss franc but financial markets have been rattled by the latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day. Demand for safe-haven assets such as the franc have surged, causing USD/CHF to dive nearly 0.7% overnight – this currency pair was hovering around 0.8770 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Composite PMI (8:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The final Composite PMI reading for the U.K. is expected to increase to 52.0 in March from 51.0 in the previous month. This would mark the highest level of PMI activity in six months and could provide further lift for the pound as European trading gets underway.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Trade Balance (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$4.0B in January, the largest since May 2022 and well above market expectations of C$1.3B. Merchandise exports rose 5.5% to a record C$74.5B, while imports increased 2.3% to a record C$70.5B, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise for both. Export growth was driven by motor vehicles and parts; energy products; and consumer goods. However, this surplus is now anticipated to narrow to C$3.4B in February – a drop of 15% – as the ongoing global trade tariffs ratcheted higher. However, the Loonie gained overnight as USD/CAD reversed off its highs of 1.4318 and dipped under 1.4300 – this currency pair was sliding toward 1.4250 as Asian markets came online on Thursday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

Caixin Services PMI (1:45 am GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The latest announcements of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Liberation Day rattled financial markets as concerns over a major global trade war escalated, significantly increasing the probability of a notable slowdown in global economic activity. Despite an exemption of tariffs on imports of oil, gas and refined products, providing some relief to the U.S. oil industry, crude oil prices slumped with WTI oil plunging over 3% as it tumbled towards the mark of $69 per barrel. In addition, the EIA crude oil inventories registered a strong build of 6.2M barrels of crude, exceeding the 6M rise in inventories as reported by the API on Tuesday. After four weeks of robust gains, overhead pressures for this commodity have intensified and prices are now subjected to head lower.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 3 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Markets Calm Before the Tariff Storm Hit – Nasdaq up 0.9%

US markets experienced a choppy day’s trading ahead of President Trump’s tariff update yesterday, with stocks ultimately finishing higher by the close, but that looks set to change later today after the President announced sweeping tariffs of 10% across the board and a raft of reciprocal tariffs to individual countries. The Dow closed up 0.56%, the S&P up 0.67%, and the Nasdaq up 0.87%. Treasury yields and the dollar both dropped, the 2-year down 2.3 basis points to 3.858%, the 10-year down 3.8 basis points to 4.131%, while the DXY dipped 0.38% to 103.81. Oil prices pushed higher, Brent up 0.62% to $74.95 and WTI up 0.70% to $71.71, whilst haven flows continued to push gold higher, up 0.92% by the close at $3,139.27.

Reciprocal Tariffs to Provide Cross Currency Trades

FX traders have woken up to a huge tariff update this morning, and many are looking at President Trump’s convenient display chart for some good cross-currency trading opportunities. The US has identified a number of countries for some hefty tariffs, and currencies should react strongly to these measures over the coming days and weeks, with many traders looking at cross trades to take the volatility of the dollar out of the equation. Many Asian countries were targeted for hard reciprocal tariffs, with the headline probably being China, which now faces total tariffs of 54%. Other South East Asian countries were also targeted hard, and traders will be cherry-picking some choice crosses in the sessions ahead, looking to target short positions in those with the higher tariff impact.

Tariff Reaction Set to Dominate Data Calendar Today

Donald Trump’s tariff update from the Rose Garden at the White House is set to dominate market sentiment and moves today, although there are some key data releases that traders will look at in the middle of the maelstrom. There is little on the calendar in the Asian session, and given that it is having first crack at reacting to the sweeping tariff update, that may not be a bad thing. The European session does, however, have key CPI data (exp. 0.1% m/m increase) due out of Switzerland, and franc traders will be paying close attention to that print. The New York session also sees some key data releases, with the Weekly Unemployment Claims data (exp. 225K), the Final Services PMI (exp. 54.1), and the ISM Services PMI (exp. 53.0) all due out early in the session. However, in the current environment, expect tariff reaction to dominate for most of the session.

The post General Market Analysis – 03/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 3/4/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.34%, Shanghai Composite up 0.06%, Hang Seng down 0.23% ASX up 0.14%
• Commodities : Gold at $3145.35 (0.80%), Silver at $34.47 (0.48%), Brent Oil at $74.75 (0.15%), WTI Oil at $71.26 (0.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.199, UK 10-year yield at 4.6330, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6810

News & Data:

• (USD) Final Manufacturing PMI 50.2  to 49.8 expected
• (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.0  to 49.5 expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors anticipated new tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump later this week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.10%, while the Topix slipped 0.55%. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.30%, and the small-cap Kosdaq declined 0.47%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.26%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index remained flat, and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.15%. India’s Nifty 50 opened with a 0.45% gain.

In the U.S., stock futures traded higher ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. Overnight, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. The S&P 500 advanced 0.38% to 5,633.07, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.87%, closing at 17,449.89. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly by 11.80 points, or 0.03%, settling at 41,989.96.

Market volatility is expected in the short term, but UBS analysts predict a more optimistic outlook in the latter half of the year. They suggest that investors use market fluctuations as an opportunity to build long-term positions.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:15 PM GMT – USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 08:00 PM GMT – USD President Trump Speaks

The post Wednesday 2nd April 2025: Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed as Investors Await U.S. Tariffs first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 2 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

It was a relatively quiet session as the dollar index (DXY) floated around 104.20 while spot prices for gold hit $3,135/oz. Meanwhile, oil prices faced some headwinds as WTI oil drifted lower toward the $71 mark.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

After registering a stronger-than-expected draw of 4.6M barrels in four weeks, the API stockpiles increased by a whopping 6M barrels of crude in its latest report. It marked the highest inventory build since mid-February, where 9M barrels were added to storage – higher builds typically signal weaker demand for crude oil in the United States. Should the EIA inventories continue to build higher, it could weigh negatively on oil prices. WTI oil hit an overnight high of $72.10 per barrel before retreating from its peak – this benchmark was sliding toward the $71 mark at the beginning of the Asia session.

Later on, U.S. President Donald Trump will be holding a press conference about tariff policies aimed at reshaping U.S. trade relationships at the White House in Washington DC, otherwise known as ‘Liberation Day’. Traders should brace themselves for significantly higher volatility during this event.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

President Trump’s Speech (8:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Private employment growth as tracked by the ADP showed job creation slowing in February as only 77k workers were added to payrolls. Not only was this result the smallest growth in seven months, but it also came in well below the forecast of 140k. However, the estimates for March point to a strong rebound with 118k jobs expected to be added to private payrolls. Later on, U.S. President Donald Trump will be holding a press conference about tariff policies aimed at reshaping U.S. trade relationships at the White House in Washington DC, otherwise known as ‘Liberation Day’. Traders should brace themselves for significantly higher volatility during this event.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

President Trump’s Speech (8:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Private employment growth as tracked by the ADP showed job creation slowing in February as only 77k workers were added to payrolls. Not only was this result the smallest growth in seven months, but it also came in well below the forecast of 140k. However, the estimates for March point to a strong rebound with 118k jobs expected to be added to private payrolls. Later on, U.S. President Donald Trump will be holding a press conference about tariff policies aimed at reshaping U.S. trade relationships at the White House in Washington DC, otherwise known as ‘Liberation Day’. Traders should brace themselves for significantly higher volatility during this event.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Following yesterday’s hold on the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Aussie remained buoyed. With the central bank maintaining interest rates at 4.10%, this currency pair reached an overnight high of 0.6283 and the upward momentum is likely to grow as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi climbed strongly above 0.5700 as Tuesday’s decision by the RBA to maintain the cash rate at current levels spurred demand for these Asia Pacific currencies. This currency pair should continue its ascend toward 0.5750.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following Tuesday’s manufacturing PMI report which highlighted the ongoing deteriorating conditions for this sector, the yen faced overhead pressures keeping USD/JPY above 149. This currency pair should continue to experience strong tailwinds on Wednesday as it rose toward 150 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

A sluggish manufacturing PMI report coupled easing consumer inflation data on Tuesday sapped demand for the euro, causing it to fall under 1.0800. This currency pair could continue to see headwinds build on Wednesday – it was floating around 1.0790 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Consumer spending in Switzerland rose at an annual rate of 1.6% in February to mark the weakest growth in retail trade since November 2024, as reported on Tuesday. Categories such as food, beverages, and tobacco; and information and communication equipment led the slowdown in sales, placing downward pressure on the franc. Slower sales growth kept USD/CHF elevated on Tuesday as it reached 0.8843. This currency pair was floating around 0.8830 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Manufacturing activity in the U.K. fell to a 17-month low of 44.9 in March as reported by S&P Global on Tuesday. Production contracted at a faster pace as new orders declined at the sharpest rate for 19 months while business optimism was at its weakest level since November 2022. Despite deteriorating manufacturing conditions, the pound held up well as Cable continued to hover above 1.2900. With demand for the greenback waning, this currency pair should remain supported on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Manufacturing activity in Canada contracted for the second consecutive month as the PMI reading fell from 47.8 in the previous month to 46.3 in March, based on Tuesday’s report. It pointed to further deterioration in factory activity that was the greatest since the end of 2023, pressured by contractions in both output and new orders. Firms noted that clients adopted a cautious approach due to ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs on goods crossing the border between Canada and the U.S., driving new export orders to drop the most since May 2020. The lack of new work drove factories to be reluctant to replace leavers, and employment levels dropped further. The Loonie initially weakened causing USD/CAD to briefly climb above 1.4400 before it reversed sharply to fall toward the level of 1.4300. This currency pair dived under this level as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After registering a stronger-than-expected draw of 4.6M barrels in four weeks, the API stockpiles increased by a whopping 6M barrels of crude in its latest report. It marked the highest inventory build since mid-February, where 9M barrels were added to storage – higher builds typically signal weaker demand for crude oil in the United States. Should the EIA inventories continue to build higher, it could weigh negatively on oil prices. WTI oil hit an overnight high of $72.10 per barrel before retreating from its peak – this benchmark was sliding toward the $71 mark at the beginning of the Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 2 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 103.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 103.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 104.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.08395
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 1.0733
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.0912
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 162.18
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.53
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.03
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8378
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 0.8324
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8427
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish reversal close to the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2876

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 1.2779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% retracements, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3009
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 194.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 192.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8855
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.8758
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8917
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 149.14

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracements, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. 

1st support: 147.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 151.24
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4324

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 1.4237
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4401
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6283
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.6238

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.6324
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5712
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 0.5669

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.5755

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 42,114.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 41,268.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,739.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,724.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 22,114.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,191.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,612.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,508.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 85,982.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 81,319.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 88,428.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,950.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1,783.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 2,111.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 70.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of a green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 68.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 72.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3051.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend.

1st support: 2,955.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3,137.79
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 2nd April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 2 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After registering marginal expansion in the months of January and February, manufacturing PMI activity fell into contraction in March as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The PMI reading fell from 50.3 to 49.0, below forecasts of 49.5 as key components such as new orders, production, backlog of orders and employment all contracted more than anticipated while growth for the prices component accelerated due to tariffs. It was a weak report which also points to deteriorating manufacturing conditions for April. Meanwhile, the JOLTS job openings decreased from 7.76M in the previous month to 7.57M in February, below market forecasts of 7.63M. Vacancies decreased in sectors such as retail trade; finance and insurance; health care and social assistance; and leisure and hospitality. Despite the weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data, demand for the dollar remained relatively stable propping up the dollar index (DXY) as it hovered above the 104 level.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

With no major news releases during this session, the DXY edged lower toward 104 while spot prices for gold resumed its upward ascend toward the latest intraday all-time high at $3,148.98/oz. Meanwhile, overhead pressures for crude oil could grow following a whopping increase of 6M barrels of crude in the API stockpiles overnight – WTI oil was drifting toward $71 per barrel.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

President Trump’s Speech (8:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Private employment growth as tracked by the ADP showed job creation slowing in February as only 77k workers were added to payrolls. Not only was this result the smallest growth in seven months, but it also came in well below the forecast of 140k. However, the estimates for March point to a strong rebound with 118k jobs expected to be added to private payrolls. Later on, U.S. President Donald Trump will be holding a press conference about tariff policies aimed at reshaping U.S. trade relationships at the White House in Washington DC, otherwise known as ‘Liberation Day’. Traders should brace themselves for significantly higher volatility during this event.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

President Trump’s Speech (8:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Private employment growth as tracked by the ADP showed job creation slowing in February as only 77k workers were added to payrolls. Not only was this result the smallest growth in seven months, but it also came in well below the forecast of 140k. However, the estimates for March point to a strong rebound with 118k jobs expected to be added to private payrolls. Later on, U.S. President Donald Trump will be holding a press conference about tariff policies aimed at reshaping U.S. trade relationships at the White House in Washington DC, otherwise known as ‘Liberation Day’. Traders should brace themselves for significantly higher volatility during this event.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

Following yesterday’s hold on the cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Aussie remained buoyed. With the central bank maintaining interest rates at 4.10%, this currency pair reached an overnight high of 0.6283 and the upward momentum is likely to grow as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi climbed strongly above 0.5700 as Tuesday’s decision by the RBA to maintain the cash rate at current levels spurred demand for these Asia Pacific currencies. This currency pair should continue its ascend toward 0.5750.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% on 19 February, marking the fourth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are at target and core inflation continues to fall towards the target mid-point.
• Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and with spare productive capacity, domestic inflation pressures continue to ease. Price and wage-setting behaviours are adapting to a low-inflation environment while the price of imports has fallen, also contributing to lower headline inflation.
• Economic growth is expected to recover during 2025 as lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues and employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers.
• Global economic growth is expected to remain subdued in the near term as geopolitics, including uncertainty about trade barriers, is likely to weaken global growth. Global economic activity is also likely to remain fragile over the medium term given increasing geoeconomic fragmentation.
• Consumer price inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices. Nevertheless, the Committee is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term.
• The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the Committee confidence to continue lowering the OCR. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025.
• The next meeting is on 9 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Following Tuesday’s manufacturing PMI report which highlighted the ongoing deteriorating conditions for this sector, the yen faced overhead pressures keeping USD/JPY above 149. This currency pair should continue to experience strong tailwinds on Wednesday as it rose toward 150 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

A sluggish manufacturing PMI report coupled easing consumer inflation data on Tuesday sapped demand for the euro, causing it to fall under 1.0800. This currency pair could continue to see headwinds build on Wednesday – it was floating around 1.0790 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 6 March to mark the fifth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.65%, 2.90% and 2.50% respectively.
• The Council acknowledged that monetary policy was becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households with inflation projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation also neared the 2% target.
• Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating.
• Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
• The next meeting is on 17 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Consumer spending in Switzerland rose at an annual rate of 1.6% in February to mark the weakest growth in retail trade since November 2024, as reported on Tuesday. Categories such as food, beverages, and tobacco; and information and communication equipment led the slowdown in sales, placing downward pressure on the franc. Slower sales growth kept USD/CHF elevated on Tuesday as it reached 0.8843. This currency pair was floating around 0.8830 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Manufacturing activity in the U.K. fell to a 17-month low of 44.9 in March as reported by S&P Global on Tuesday. Production contracted at a faster pace as new orders declined at the sharpest rate for 19 months while business optimism was at its weakest level since November 2022. Despite deteriorating manufacturing conditions, the pound held up well as Cable continued to hover above 1.2900. With demand for the greenback waning, this currency pair should remain supported on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Manufacturing activity in Canada contracted for the second consecutive month as the PMI reading fell from 47.8 in the previous month to 46.3 in March, based on Tuesday’s report. It pointed to further deterioration in factory activity that was the greatest since the end of 2023, pressured by contractions in both output and new orders. Firms noted that clients adopted a cautious approach due to ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs on goods crossing the border between Canada and the U.S., driving new export orders to drop the most since May 2020. The lack of new work drove factories to be reluctant to replace leavers, and employment levels dropped further. The Loonie initially weakened causing USD/CAD to briefly climb above 1.4400 before it reversed sharply to fall toward the level of 1.4300. This currency pair dived under this level as Asian markets came online on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points bringing it down to 2.75% on 12 March; this marked the seventh consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• The bank announced its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening, and will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.
• The Governing Council noted that the economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of last year, spurred by past rate cuts but growth is now expected to slow at the turn of the year due to increasing trade conflict with the United States.
• Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation.
• Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices.
• While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing U.S. tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest.
• While monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war, the Governing Council will carefully assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs.
• The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations and is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 16 April 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After registering a stronger-than-expected draw of 4.6M barrels in four weeks, the API stockpiles increased by a whopping 6M barrels of crude in its latest report. It marked the highest inventory build since mid-February, where 9M barrels were added to storage – higher builds typically signal weaker demand for crude oil in the United States. Should the EIA inventories continue to build higher, it could weigh negatively on oil prices. WTI oil hit an overnight high of $72.10 per barrel before retreating from its peak – this benchmark was sliding toward the $71 mark at the beginning of the Asia session.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 2 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

There is no doubt that today’s update from President Trump on tariffs imposed by the United States on imports from trading partners could prove pivotal for financial markets in the year ahead. Investors and traders alike have been focused on new government policies since the election was won back in November, particularly regarding trade implications.

It now feels like today’s updates from the President could set the path for global trade over the next few years. However, as always, we must acknowledge that he may change his mind at any stage. But from the propaganda surrounding this announcement, it does feel like today’s updates could be firm, especially as they will take effect soon.

Several options are being assessed by the market, but the three potential outcomes below seem the most likely:

1. Sweeping Flat Rate Tariffs – All trading partners and goods would have a set rate imposed by the U.S., with 20% being a figure mentioned several times by government officials.
2. Tiered Tariffs – Separate tariff levies would be placed on goods depending on each country’s tariff and non-tariff barriers to U.S. goods.
3. Targeted Tariffs – Specific tariffs would be placed on specific goods or trading partners. This approach would be more complex but would also provide greater flexibility.

Traders are preparing for a very busy session at the end of the day in the U.S. and tomorrow morning in Asia, as they will have the first opportunity to react to the tariff updates. The overall sentiment in the market is that volatility is expected, and there is strong hope that the full update will provide more certainty.

In general, investors will assess the severity of tariff implementation and how it will affect goods and services on a country-by-country basis. Many believe this will present great trading opportunities.

• Sweeping High Flat Rate Tariffs (20%+) across the board would likely have the hardest impact but would also provide certainty for the markets. Expect bonds to rise, stocks to drop, and more risk-off trades in currencies.
• Sweeping Lower Flat Rate Tariffs (less than 20%) would probably be well received by investors, potentially reversing recent market moves. Stocks could rally, bonds could fall, and risk-on trades across FX might gain traction.
• Tiered Tariffs – This scenario introduces complexity, as traders would have to analyze tariff details carefully. Expect more volatility and fewer straightforward market moves. FX traders will likely seek cross-currency opportunities by buying jurisdictions with lower tariff implementations while selling those facing higher tariffs.
• Targeted Tariffs – This option provides the least certainty for markets and will likely increase volatility as investors digest the full implications on a country-by-country basis. As mentioned above, FX cross-currency opportunities could be significant.

Overall, traders anticipate strong market movements while the updates are being released and in the sessions afterward as the market processes all available information. Expect particular focus on Mexican, Canadian, Chinese, and European markets, as these could present the best trading opportunities both in the short term (immediate updates) and for longer-term trades.

The post Trading the Tariff Update first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Markets Wait on Tariff Update – Nasdaq Rallies 0.9%

It was a choppy trading session in the US yesterday as investors jostled positions ahead of key tariff updates from President Trump later today. The Dow closed close to flat, down just 0.03%, while tech stocks helped both the S&P and Nasdaq to ultimately close the day up, finishing the session up 0.38% and 0.87% respectively. Treasury yields drifted lower again, the 2-year losing just 0.2 basis points to move to 3.881%, while the 10-year dropped 3.6 basis points to 4.169%. Major currencies had relatively quiet days, trading in familiar ranges, the DXY adding 0.05% on the day to close at 104.23. Oil prices drifted off 5-week highs, Brent closing down 0.48% at $74.41 and WTI off 0.39% at $71.20. Gold recorded yet another all-time high, before then pulling back to close down on the day, losing 0.4% to finish at $3,110.55.

Investors Nervously Await Tariff Update

The market has been advised that any tariffs announced today by President Trump will take immediate effect. There has been a huge amount of debate on the extent of the tariffs to be announced today and the jury will still be very much ‘out’ until we get confirmation at the end of the trading day. The main debate appears to be whether we will see sweeping universal tariffs and what that number will look like – 20% has been well documented across markets – or more targeted individual reciprocal tariffs that have been touted by the President recently. Whatever the outcome today, traders are expecting plenty of volatility across markets, as the issue looks set to go down to the final whistle as always with this administration.

Quiet Calendar Day Ahead of Tariff Update

There is very little scheduled on the macroeconomic calendar today and that is probably a good thing, as the major focus for the day, and indeed the week, will be President Trump’s update on tariffs, due to come just after the US close. We do hear from the RBA’s Assistant Governor, Christopher Kent, early in the day and traders are expecting to see moves in the Aussie. However, there is little else on the cards in the Asian session. The European session has mainly third-tier data due out and we do have the ADP Non-Farm Employment Data due out early in the New York session, with expectations of 118k new jobs being created last month. However, once again, most expect the impact to be limited ahead of the tariff update from President Trump, due at 4pm New York Time.

The post General Market Analysis – 02/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.