US Stocks Smashed on Valuations Warnings – Nasdaq Down 2%

US stocks tumbled overnight as senior bank executives sounded the alarm over excessive market valuations, sparking a wave of risk aversion across major indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq took big hits, down 1.17% and 2.04% to 6,771 and 23,348 respectively, suffering their sharpest losses in nearly a month, while the Dow Jones also continued to retreat, closing down 0.53% at 47,085. In the bond market, US Treasury yields eased slightly, with the 2-year slipping 2.9 basis points to 3.576% and the 10-year down 2.5 bps to 4.085%, as investors remained cautious amid the continuing lack of US government data due to the ongoing shutdown. The US dollar extended its recent rally, with the DXY gaining 0.31% to 100.19, levels not seen since early August. Commodity markets weakened as the stronger dollar weighed further on sentiment. Brent crude fell 0.96% to $64.27, while WTI dropped 1.13% to $60.38. Gold also came under pressure, losing 1.73% to close at $3,932.09.

Gold Takes a Hit in Busy Markets – Drops 1.7%

Gold traders had another busy day yesterday as the world’s favourite precious metal dropped nearly 2% on the day, when some would have been hoping that safe-haven flows would have seen a move in the opposite direction. Traditional correlations have broken down over the last couple of months, and yesterday’s trading was another good example for gold players as it fell in line with major equity indices. Gold is now over 9% lower than its recent all-time high in October and is approaching its recent low at $3,886.02. From a technical perspective, if we see a break under this level in the next couple of days’ trading, we could then see a deeper correction back to the September breakout level of $3,500.

Another Busy Day Ahead for Traders

It looks like being another busy day ahead for traders after a volatile final session yesterday. The Asian session has already seen the release of New Zealand employment data, which dropped slightly on a quarterly basis, leading to a fall in the Kiwi dollar. We are scheduled to hear from RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby later in the day, which could add further volatility to the “flightless bird.” There is little on the calendar in the London session, but we do have some data due out of the US once New York opens, with the non-government ADP Non-Farms due for release (exp. +32k) and the ISM Services PMI data (exp. 50.7), with traders expecting big moves around the prints given the lack of other data releases recently. Later in the day, we have the possibility for more fireworks in the market when President Trump speaks in Miami, and Canadian markets will be paying close attention near the day’s end when Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in front of the government in Ottawa.

The post General Market Analysis – 5/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

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IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. equities, particularly tech stocks and AI leaders, were the main beneficiaries of headline news, while gold and Bitcoin gained on risk aversion from government shutdown concerns.​The dollar experienced volatility but ultimately recovered, and oil stayed nearly unchanged after OPEC+ developments.​Data releases highlighted ongoing U.S. manufacturing weakness, persistent inflation issues, and further uncertainty for Fed policy direction.​

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Watch for the RBA’s decision and tone; a dovish or hawkish tilt could move AUD crosses.ECB speeches may influence EUR pairs if President Lagarde signals any policy shift.NZD may be volatile on employment and unemployment data, especially given expectations around a potential peak in joblessness. Global risk sentiment is positive but sensitive to central bank commentary and macro surprises. Oil and gold markets are active, impacted by supply decisions and ongoing dollar strength.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is currently supported by market positioning ahead of important labor market data and ongoing global economic uncertainty. Recent shifts in central bank guidance, especially from the Federal Reserve, have influenced sentiment. Traders are watching for any new clues on future US rate cuts, inflation, and international developments such as political instability in Japan and tariff threats from the Trump administration.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Mixed macroeconomic signals shape gold’s stability near $4,000—US rate policies, China’s tax changes, and technical chart levels, while the longer-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic amid continued global uncertainty. Gold is consolidating after record highs, with a firm base near $4,000 as investors digest interest rate clues and major policy changes in China. Safe-haven demand has softened but remains strong; investor sentiment is generally bullish in Western markets, and technical setups indicate potential for renewed upward movement if key resistance levels are breached.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Cash Rate (3:30 am GMT)

RBA monetary policy statement (3:30 am GMT)

RBA rate statement (3:30 am GMT)

RBA press conference (4:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUD is expected to remain sensitive to the RBA’s rate decision and accompanying statements. Stronger-than-forecast inflation has shifted the outlook towards an extended rate hold, supporting the currency even as global risk sentiment fluctuates. Watch for market volatility around Tuesday’s announcement and press conference, as traders digest RBA policy signals and updated economic guidance.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

Employment change q/q (9:45 pm GMT)

Unemployment rate (9:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar faces significant pressure driven by a confluence of negative factors: a resilient US dollar supported by hawkish Fed rhetoric, weak Chinese manufacturing data weighing on export demand, concerns over US tariff impacts, and anticipation of rising unemployment. The critical employment data release will determine whether the RBNZ continues its aggressive easing cycle or pauses to assess economic developments.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen remains under significant pressure as it trades near eight-month lows around 154.00-154.20 against the dollar on Tuesday, November 4. The BOJ’s continued dovish stance, despite two dissenting votes for a rate hike and accelerating Tokyo inflation, reflects Governor Ueda’s cautious approach amid global trade uncertainties. Prime Minister Takaichi’s massive fiscal stimulus plans further dampen rate hike expectations, while the policy divergence with a hawkish Federal Reserve continues to support USD/JPY carry trades.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Tuesday’s oil market reflects competing dynamics: OPEC+’s cautious production approach and Russian supply risks provide near-term support, lifting WTI to around $61 per barrel and Brent to approximately $65. However, fundamental oversupply concerns dominate the medium-term outlook, with forecasters predicting substantial inventory builds through 2026 that could push prices significantly lower. The OPEC+ decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 acknowledges these risks but may prove insufficient to prevent the anticipated 4 million bpd surplus.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Tech Stocks Push Higher on AI Deals – Nasdaq up 0.5%

US stocks experienced a mixed session overnight, with tech shares once again leading the charge after a series of AI-related partnership announcements. The Nasdaq gained 0.46% to close at 23,834, while the broader S&P 500 edged up 0.17% to 6,851. The Dow, however, slipped 0.48% to 47,336 as disappointing ISM data and ongoing concerns about the US government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The US dollar continued to grind higher, adding 0.16% to 99.87 as traders continued to adjust to last week’s less dovish tone from the Federal Reserve. Yields also moved higher, with the 2-year Treasury rising 2.9 basis points to 3.603% and the 10-year up 3.1 basis points to 4.108%. Commodities had a rare quiet day, with oil and gold both finishing close to flat. Brent crude inched up 0.11% to $64.84, and WTI rose 0.02% to $60.99, while gold eased slightly by 0.02% to $4,001.06 an ounce.

Dollar Grinds Higher Post Fed – DXY up 1.5%

There has been plenty of volatility in the market since the Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week, but one of the quiet performers has been the USD. While other financial products have seen quite choppy market conditions, the dollar overall has pushed higher, with the DXY seeing four consecutive days of gains to lock in a near 1.5% rise. The DXY is now sitting at levels not seen since early August, and with some of the major pairs threatening to break into new ranges, we could see this dollar move accelerate in the coming sessions. USDJPY, in particular, has consolidated on resistance levels, and a break higher would drive the index further north, as would a substantial break through the 1.1500 level for the euro. The absence of US data is certainly a concern for these moves, but further indications from Fed members — and there are plenty speaking later this week — could make the market a lot less dovish and push the dollar into fresh ranges.

Central Banks Back in Focus Today

With the US government shutdown rolling into its 36th day, the macroeconomic calendar is starting to look bare again this week, when we would normally be expecting a big jobs update. The focus for the next couple of sessions will be firmly on central banks, with a key interest rate update due out of Australia and comments expected from other central banks in the following sessions. The RBA is firmly expected to keep rates on hold at 3.60% today after last week’s stronger-than-expected CPI data prints, and traders are expecting volatility around the event mainly from updates in the statement and consequent press conference. There are no top-level data releases due now on the calendar in the latter sessions, although we do hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Fed’s Michelle Bowman, and the MPC’s Sarah Breeden in the London session, and the Buba’s Joachim Nagel later in the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 4/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 4/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.47%, Shanghai Composite down -0.19%, Hang Seng up 0.07% ASX down -0.69%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,000.45 (-0.33%), Silver at $47.890 (-0.33%), Brent Oil at $64.75 (-0.23%), WTI Oil at $60.92 (-0.21%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.107, UK 10-year yield at 4.4380, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6625

News & Data:

• (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI  48.7  to 49.4 expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s uneven performance overnight, as investors await the U.S. ADP employment report due Wednesday. A survey showed that U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth consecutive month in October. With the government shutdown now stretching into its 34th day, traders are closely analyzing limited private data for signals on the economy and interest rate direction. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 66.4% probability of another quarter-point rate cut, down from 94.4% a week earlier.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.8% to 8,823.30, led by declines in miners, financials, energy, and tech stocks, though gold miners are gaining ahead of the Reserve Bank’s policy announcement. BHP and Rio Tinto are down over 2%, while gold stocks such as Genesis Minerals and Northern Star are up more than 1%. The Aussie dollar is trading at $0.653.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.1% to 52,361.14 after reopening from a holiday, weighed by losses in technology and financial shares. Tokyo Electron jumped 5%, while Screen Holdings tumbled 13%. Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, signaling deeper contraction.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea, China, and Taiwan edged lower, while Hong Kong and Malaysia posted modest gains. On Wall Street, the Dow fell 0.5%, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

Upcoming Events:

• 09:45 PM GMT – NZD Employment Change q/q
• 09:45 PM GMT – NZD Unemployment Rate

The post Tuesday 4th November 2025: Asian Markets Mixed Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data; Australia and Japan Weigh on Sentiment first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
The RBA’s hawkish hold on rates at 3.6% amid higher-than-expected inflation created volatility in AUD pairs, with the currency showing resilience despite Fed headwinds. Traded near two-week lows ahead of critical Q3 employment data, with expectations of rising unemployment reinforcing dovish RBNZ expectations. Weaker manufacturing PMI data weighed on sentiment, though markets remained relatively stable above key support levels . Gold Fell below $4,000/oz on a stronger US dollar and reduced Fed easing expectations, compounded by China’s tax policy changes. 

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s key developments center on diverging central bank policies, with the RBA holding rates amid sticky inflation while the RBNZ continues aggressive easing in response to economic weakness. The ECB maintains its pause after substantial 2024-2025 rate cuts, while the Fed signals caution on future reductions despite recent easing. Currency markets reflect these divergences, with the dollar approaching key resistance and commodity currencies adjusting to policy shifts. Oil prices are supported by OPEC+ production discipline and supply risks, while gold consolidates after recent record highs. Equity markets show continued strength driven by AI optimism, though concentration risks and weak breadth raise concerns about sustainability heading into year-end.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is at a three-month high on November 4, 2025, supported by reduced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following Chair Powell’s hawkish October 29 press conference. Market odds of a December cut have fallen to 63-70% from over 90%, strengthening the dollar across major pairs. A month-long government shutdown has created an unprecedented economic data blackout, forcing investors to rely on private sector indicators like Wednesday’s ADP employment report. The US-China trade truce announced last week has stabilized sentiment, with fentanyl tariffs cut from 20% to 10%, though the overall tariff rate remains elevated at 47%.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s performance on Tuesday reflects a market in transition. The precious metal is consolidating around $4,000 after a sharp correction from record highs, caught between hawkish Federal Reserve policy, reduced safe-haven demand following US-China trade progress, and China’s tax policy changes that may dampen retail demand. However, structural support remains robust through sustained central bank buying, positive ETF inflows reversing multi-year trends, and persistent global uncertainties. The metal has gained 45-46% year-to-date, demonstrating remarkable strength despite the recent pullback, representing a healthy 5.8-10% correction.​

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Weak bearish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde speaks (7:40 am GMT)

ECB President Lagarde speaks (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro faces headwinds entering November as dollar strength drives EUR/USD to three-month lows near 1.1500, despite relatively constructive eurozone fundamentals. The ECB’s steady policy stance at 2% reflects confidence in inflation convergence and economic resilience, with third-quarter GDP beating expectations at 0.2% growth. Manufacturing has stabilized at the 50.0 threshold while services expansion accelerated to 52.6, though structural challenges persist with stagnant new orders and continued job cuts.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its meeting on 30 October 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility in the face of uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc has eased from its 2025 highs but remains among the stronger G10 currencies year-to-date, mostly due to its safe-haven status and the SNB’s prudent stance. However, persistent low inflation may prompt further policy accommodation, and the SNB’s recent profit results highlight financial stability advantages. The currency’s performance remains sensitive to global risk appetite, SNB signals, and evolving macroeconomic data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces a challenging environment heading into mid-week, pressured by expectations for more aggressive BoE rate cuts, deteriorating UK fiscal fundamentals, and a stronger US dollar. While some analysts see temporary relief if the BoE holds rates on Thursday, the broader outlook remains bearish with key support levels at risk. The November 26 Budget represents the next major event risk, with fiscal tightening measures likely to further dampen economic sentiment and weigh on sterling. Technical indicators and momentum suggest GBP/USD could test the 1.30-1.31 range in the near term, with recovery attempts likely to face strong resistance around 1.33-1.34.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the rate cut in August. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Gov Macklem speaks (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar faces a pivotal day, as the Carney government’s first budget promises transformational fiscal expansion aimed at boosting long-term growth and productivity. While Bank of America analysts view the fiscal stimulus as potentially bullish for CAD, the currency remains under pressure at 1.4067 against the USD amid weak economic data, including August’s 0.3% GDP contraction and a record-wide trade deficit. The Bank of Canada’s signal that its rate-cutting cycle may be complete provides some support, but ongoing U.S. trade tensions, stalled negotiations with the Trump administration, and oil prices hovering around $61 per barrel continue to limit upside potential.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API crude oil stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Tuesday’s oil market reflects a complex interplay of bearish and bullish factors. While OPEC+’s production pause and ongoing Russian supply disruptions provide near-term price support, overwhelming concerns about a 2026 supply glut continue to pressure prices toward multi-month lows. The record 1.4 billion barrels floating at sea underscores the market’s structural oversupply, even as geopolitical risks from Ukraine’s infrastructure attacks and potential Venezuela tensions create unpredictable supply wildcards. With WTI and Brent trading near $61 and $65, respectively, markets appear to be pricing in an extended period of abundant supply, despite OPEC+’s cautious approach and the uncertainties surrounding Russian oil flows under new sanctions.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 04 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could fall toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 99.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 100.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 1.1542

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 1.1418

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 181.8% Fibonacci extension and the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1603

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 177.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 176.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 178.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8718
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pulback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3260

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3115
Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3355
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support

Pivot: 203.200

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 201.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 204.36
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8049

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8009
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8130
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 153.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 151.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 155.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                          

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.4021

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3970

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4077

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could make a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6524

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6484

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5742

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5686

Supporting reasons: Identified as aa swing low support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5814

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,059.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 46,447.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,-48.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 24,227.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 23,714.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,511.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price is falling toward the pivot and could make a short-term pullback toward this level before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,760.21

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interest could pick up

1st support: 6,696.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,922.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 107,301.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 103,209.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 111,232.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,747.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,520.31

Supporting reasons: Identified as a support that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,919.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 60.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 57.72
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 63.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 4,053.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 3,891.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,177.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 4th November 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Dear Client,

Please find our updated Trading schedule and general information related to the US Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, 27 November, 2025 and Friday, 28 November, 2025.

Liquidity over the holidays is expected to be particularly thin so please take the necessary precaution to ensure that you are not affected by increased volatility, spreads and intermittent pricing.

All times mentioned below are Platform time (GMT +2).

MT4/MT5:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Metal Futures:

Energy Futures:

Soft Commodities Futures:

Indices Futures:

Bonds Futures:

Equities:

cTrader:

Precious Metals:

Spot Energies:

Indices:

Metal Futures:

Kind regards,

IC Markets Team.

The post US Thanksgiving Day Trading Schedule 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

The overnight U.S. session was shaped by better-than-expected tech earnings and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI continuing to signal a slow manufacturing environment. Tech equities, the U.S. dollar, and safety assets (like Treasuries and gold) were among the most impacted financial instruments. The USD remained sensitive to the ISM Manufacturing PMI and related price indices releases, with currency traders closely watching for signs of further weakness or surprise improvements.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday, November 3, brings critical data that will set the tone for the week, with US manufacturing PMI and the RBA rate decision taking center stage. The US dollar’s strength, driven by reduced Fed easing expectations, the yen’s weakness from political uncertainty, and the Australian dollar’s bullish stance from inflation surprises, represents the major currency themes. Commodity markets show gold consolidating after record highs, while oil faces structural headwinds from oversupply.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

ISM manufacturing prices (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar enters November 3 with strong momentum, supported by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, improved geopolitical sentiment following the US-China trade deal, and continued economic resilience. However, notable risks remain, including uncertainty stemming from the ongoing government shutdown, potential manufacturing weakness indicated by sub-50 PMI readings, and elevated positioning that may prompt profit-taking. Today’s manufacturing PMI releases at 9:45 AM and 10:00 AM ET will offer key insights into the economy’s underlying strength and could shape the near-term direction of the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ISM manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

ISM manufacturing prices (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s consolidation around $4,000 reflects a market recalibrating after an extraordinary rally, with traders balancing reduced safe-haven demand from improved US-China relations against persistent structural drivers, including central bank buying, Fed policy uncertainty, and long-term debasement concerns. The precious metal faces near-term technical pressure from a strengthening dollar and hawkish Fed rhetoric, but most analysts maintain bullish medium-to-long-term outlooks with targets ranging from $4,500-$5,000 over the next 12-18 months.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar enters Monday with firm upward momentum supported by strong inflation data, RBA caution on rates, and positive global market sentiment. Rate cuts are now unlikely in the near term, and technical setups favor further AUD/USD gains as long as current inflation and commodity trends persist. AUD/USD climbed above 0.6600 to reach recent three-week highs following the September quarter inflation release, which beat forecasts and reinforced the view that rate cuts are off the table for November and likely December as well.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at its October meeting on 29–30 September 2025, marking a second consecutive pause after August’s 25 basis point cut. The move affirms the Bank’s data-dependent approach as inflation trends within the target range.
• Inflation indicators remained stable through September, with headline CPI likely anchoring near 2.2%—comfortably within the 2–3% band. Insurance and housing costs remain sticky but are increasingly offset by moderation in discretionary goods.
• Trimmed mean inflation is estimated at around 2.8%, signaling underlying pressures remain contained. The Board continues to flag food and energy price volatility as short-term risks, though the broader disinflation narrative holds.
• Global conditions remain a source of uncertainty. U.S. policy expectations and uneven growth in China continue to weigh on commodities, even as trade disruptions have eased marginally since mid-year.
• Domestic growth shows resilience in the housing and services sectors, though manufacturing remains subdued. Household incomes have stabilized, but consumption remains only modest, capped by high borrowing costs.
• The labor market maintains relative tightness, though job growth has slowed notably since the first half of the year. Underutilization has ticked higher, but overall employment conditions remain supportive.
• Wage growth is plateauing, reflecting softer labor demand. Weak productivity continues to keep unit labor costs elevated, underscoring a medium-term concern highlighted repeatedly by the RBA.
• Household consumption prospects remain fragile. The combination of high rents and weak discretionary appetite suggests risks of a consumer-led slowdown in Q4 if confidence fails to rebound.
• The Board reiterated that subdued household spending poses risks to business sentiment and may dampen investment and job creation in the coming quarters.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive. The RBA balanced confidence in inflation progress with caution around global and domestic demand risks, keeping further adjustments conditional on incoming data.
• The Bank reaffirmed its dual commitment to price stability and full employment, noting its readiness to act should conditions shift markedly.
• The next meeting is on 5 to 6 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZD faces downward pressure as markets expect further RBNZ rate cuts and labor market weakness, but improving local business sentiment offers some offsetting support. The NZD/USD is projected to remain soft with only temporary rebounds possible, and all eyes are now on upcoming labor data and the RBNZ policy meeting later in the month.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025, exceeding market expectations for a smaller 25-basis-point reduction and signaling a stronger commitment to reviving growth.
• The decision was reached by consensus, marking a shift from previous split votes, and reflected policymakers’ shared view that sustained economic weakness and persistent disinflationary pressures required a more front-loaded policy response.
• Annual consumer price inflation stood at 2.7% in the June quarter and is seen nearing 3% for the September quarter—above the 2% midpoint but within the 1–3% target range. Despite high near-term readings, the MPC projects inflation will return toward 2% by the first half of 2026 as spare capacity and moderating tradables curb price momentum.
• Policymakers acknowledged that domestic demand remains weak, with household spending, business investment, and construction activity under pressure. While still elevated, services inflation is expected to ease gradually as wage growth slows and unemployment edges higher.
• Financial conditions have eased with expectations as wholesale and retail borrowing rates adjust to lower policy settings. Bank lending data indicate a modest uptick in mortgage approvals, though broader credit demand remains subdued.
• GDP growth stalled in the middle of 2025, with high-frequency indicators showing continued weakness into the third quarter. A combination of elevated costs for essentials and falling savings continues to restrain household consumption, while global trade frictions weigh on business sentiment.
• The MPC noted that global uncertainty—particularly from US trade regulation changes and soft Chinese demand—continues to pose downside risks to export sectors, though these are partly offset by a weaker New Zealand dollar improving competitiveness.
• Subject to data confirming a sustained soft patch in activity and moderating inflation pressures, the MPC signaled further scope to reduce the OCR toward 2.25% at its next meeting on 26 November 2025, consistent with current market and Westpac forecasts.
• The next meeting is on 26 November 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events

What can we expect from JPY today?

While inflation data provide a potential reason for BOJ tightening, persistent dovish signals mean the yen remains under downside pressure against the dollar, with any appreciation likely to be gradual and dependent on both BOJ policy evolution and US dollar momentum. The opening of Japanese markets for holiday trading may add some volatility, but underlying trends favor continued yen weakness for now.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

OPEC+ is increasing output modestly in December but pausing hikes for Q1 2026. Oil prices are below recent averages, heading for a third straight month of declines. Market weakness is driven by oversupply, sluggish demand (especially from China), and persistent geopolitical developments. Near-term price action could see further volatility, with technical support watching the $58–$63 range closely.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher into the Weekend – Nasdaq up 0.6%

US stock indices pushed higher again on Friday despite investor concerns about a less dovish Fed, a US data vacuum, and mixed earnings from big tech players. The Dow added 0.09% to 47,562, the S&P finished up 0.26% at 6,840, while the Nasdaq led the way again, closing up 0.61% at 23,724. Treasury yields pulled back, with the 2-year down 3.5 basis points at 3.574%, and the 10-year lost 1.9 basis points to close the week at 4.077%. The dollar, however, continued its rise post the Fed meeting, with the DXY up 0.19% at 99.72. Oil prices rose, with Brent up 0.62% to $64.77 and WTI up 0.68% to $60.98, and further moves are expected today after OPEC+ announced lower production increases than expected in the months ahead due to supply concerns. Gold experienced another choppy day, ultimately closing 0.53% lower at $4,002.92.

Busy Week Again for Traders

Traders are expecting another volatile week ahead with several financial products near all-time levels, geopolitical updates likely, more central bank rate calls, and the likely absence of key US jobs numbers all set to feature. The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are both expected to keep rates on hold this week; however, traders are expecting plenty of volatility on forward guidance from both committees. Trade updates are likely again from various jurisdictions, and the US earnings season continues in earnest. All of these factors could combine to drive markets significantly in one direction or the other—or at least keep them very choppy. In addition to the above, the data vacuum in the US is likely to start increasing concerns as we look set to miss another crucial jobs market update, with the government shutdown likely to see Non-Farms, JOLTS Job Openings, and Weekly Unemployment Claims data all delayed or cancelled. Overall, it is very hard to pick one direction for markets at the moment, and we could be trading at very different levels come 5 p.m. in New York on Friday.

Steady Start to the Trading Week

It looks like a steady start to the trading week today, with little dramatic on the geopolitical front over the weekend—for a change—and a relatively quiet calendar ahead of us. Liquidity will be affected in the Asian session today with Japanese markets closed for Culture Day, and traders are expecting a smooth start to the week with little on the calendar to move market momentum. There will be a strong focus on Swiss markets shortly after the London open, with key CPI data due out. The market is expecting a 0.1% decrease in the month-on-month number, and anything further south of this could put pressure on the Swiss National Bank to move to negative rates in the coming months. We are likely to see some data out of the US today, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (exp. 49.4) and ISM Manufacturing Prices (exp. 62.4) numbers due out shortly after the open. Central bankers are back on the speaking circuit this week, and we hear from Fed members Daly and Cook today, as well as Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

The post General Market Analysis – 3/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Today’s Asia session was characterized by a strong US dollar, oil market strength on OPEC+ cuts, and generally cautious risk sentiment in anticipation of major macroeconomic releases and central bank meetings. Currencies most impacted were USD/SGD, AUD/USD, and risk-linked FX, while crude oil and the ASX 200 led moves in commodities and equities. The US dollar extended its strength in Asia, especially against risk-sensitive currencies like the Singapore dollar (USD/SGD climbed past the 1.30 level), as investors responded to continued hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3:00 PM ET is today’s headline event, with markets watching for any signs of improvement above the 50 threshold. Seven consecutive months of contraction have weighed on manufacturing sentiment, and today’s data will provide crucial insight into whether the sector is stabilizing. The RBA’s widely expected hold decision tonight will confirm that Australia’s rate-cutting cycle has paused due to sticky inflation. Markets have dramatically repriced expectations following the hot Q3 CPI data.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ISM manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

ISM manufacturing prices (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY index holds near three-month highs around 99.8 following hawkish Fed rhetoric that reduced December rate cut odds to 63%​Fed officials push back: Cleveland Fed’s Hammack and two other regional presidents publicly opposed further rate cuts, citing elevated inflation concerns. ​Manufacturing data in focus: S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMIs were released Monday, with expectations of modest improvement, but ISM remaining in contraction territory.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ISM manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT)

ISM manufacturing prices (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold begins the week of November 3, 2025, in consolidation mode around $3,972 per ounce, approximately 9% below its October 20 all-time high of $4,381. The precious metal faces competing pressures: hawkish Federal Reserve commentary has reduced expectations for December rate cuts and strengthened the dollar, while improved US-China trade relations have dampened safe-haven demand. China’s elimination of its gold VAT rebate, effective November 1, adds another near-term headwind by potentially reducing retail buying in a major market.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

​The euro faces multiple headwinds on Monday, November 3, 2025, as it trades near three-month lows around 1.1530-1.1537. Persistent US dollar strength, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, remains the primary pressure point. While the ECB has maintained rates at accommodative levels and eurozone economic data have modestly exceeded expectations, political uncertainty in France and ongoing trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its meeting on 30 October 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility in the face of uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

CPI m/m (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc showed short-term weakness, declining against major currencies over the past week, though it maintains substantial year-to-date gains exceeding 12%. Switzerland’s inflation remains subdued at 0.2% year-on-year, with the SNB holding rates at 0% and projecting continued low inflation. The franc continues to benefit from safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, while the SNB’s gold reserves have generated significant profits amid soaring gold prices.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound enters this critical week facing multiple headwinds that have pushed it to seven-month lows. A toxic combination of fiscal uncertainty stemming from the upcoming budget, expectations of additional Bank of England rate cuts, deteriorating productivity forecasts adding £20 billion to the fiscal hole, and a strengthening US dollar has created substantial downward pressure on sterling. While recent retail sales data showed unexpected resilience, and inflation has begun to ease slightly, the overall fundamental backdrop remains bearish for the pound in the near term.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the rate cut in August. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish 

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Gov Macklem speaks (6:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar entered November 3, 2025, facing significant headwinds from diverging monetary policies between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, persistent economic weakness driven by U.S. trade tensions, and structural challenges that limit policy support. While higher oil prices provided some cushion, the USD/CAD pair remained elevated near 1.40, reflecting the CAD’s vulnerability to external shocks and the U.S. dollar’s relative strength. With the BoC signaling a pause in rate cuts and weak economic data continuing to emerge, the Canadian Dollar’s near-term outlook remains cautious, dependent largely on trade policy developments and global commodity price stability

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. The increase was driven by higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major new event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices rose on Monday, with WTI at $61.34/bbl and Brent at $65.01/bbl, following OPEC+’s decision to increase December production by just 137,000 bpd while pausing all output hikes for Q1 2026. This strategic freeze aims to prevent oversupply during weak seasonal demand, even as global oil inventories swell with a record 1.4 billion barrels at sea. Key developments include US production hitting record highs of 13.644 million bpd, Ukrainian drone strikes damaging Russia’s Tuapse oil terminal, new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and potential US-China energy deals involving Alaskan oil and gas. Despite short-term price support from OPEC+ discipline and geopolitical risks, the market faces persistent oversupply concerns with forecasts projecting potential surpluses of up to 4 million bpd in 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.