DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 100.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 99.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1310

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.1147
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1423

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 163.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. 

1st support: 162.48
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 164.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8446

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8519
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction:  Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3348

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3206
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3442
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 193.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 191.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 195.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8251

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.8110
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8372
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.  Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

Pivot: 144.38

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 141.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 146.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3781

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound 

1st support: 1.3750
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3894
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6459
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6342

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 0.6523
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5887
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6019

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 39,297.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,740.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 22,521.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 21,523.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,438.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,559.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum. 

1st support: 5,322.68

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 95,364.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum. 

1st support: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 99,293.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1,828.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 1,740.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,947.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 61.83

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. The presence of the red Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 55.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 64.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3262.62
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. Additionally, the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, which adds further significance to the strength of the bearish momentum.

1st support: 3154.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3357.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 2nd May 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 2 May 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Manufacturing output in the U.S. contracted for the second month in a row as the report by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed PMI activity slipping from 49.00 in the previous month to 48.7 in April. Sub-indices such as new orders and new export orders fell steeply amidst ongoing tariff-related disruptions while manufacturers grappled with rising costs and margin pressure. Ongoing trade uncertainty has disrupted supply chains, caused shipping delays, complex duties, and frequent changes in cost structures. Moving over to labour market data, unemployment claims rose noticeably higher, jumping from 223k in the previous week to 241k in the latest result, the highest reading since February and well above market expectations of 224k. Despite a weak set of macroeconomic data, demand for the greenback remained relatively strong as the dollar index (DXY) gained 0.7% to rise above the key threshold of 100 on Thursday.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Consumer spending in Australia rose at a monthly rate of 0.3% in March, missing the forecast of a 0.4% increase. The latest report marked the third consecutive month of rising sales but highlighted a cautious consumer in light of the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties. The Aussie remained elevated above 0.6400 and it could grind higher on the final trading day of the week.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

March’s robust 228k job creation significantly exceeded expectations, but economists now forecast a moderation to 138k for April in the latest non-farm payrolls (NFPs)as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, which has risen gradually from 3.9% a year ago. The labour market has remained a bright spot in the U.S. economy, but signs of cooling are emerging with initial claims recently hitting a 9-week high. A softer payrolls print would reinforce rate cut expectations and likely pressure the dollar, while any upside surprise could trigger a short squeeze.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

BLS Employment Report (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains under pressure, with spot prices breaking below $3,220/oz as risk appetite improves and yields stabilised on Thursday. This precious metal has pulled back from recent highs as safe-haven flows moderate with easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Jobs data will be critical – a significant miss in the NFPs could reinvigorate gold bulls by boosting rate cut expectations, while a strong report would likely extend the correction lower.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Consumer spending in Australia rose at a monthly rate of 0.3% in March, missing the forecast of a 0.4% increase. The latest report marked the third consecutive month of rising sales but highlighted a cautious consumer in light of the ongoing global trade policy uncertainties. The Aussie remained elevated above 0.6400 and it should grind higher on the final trading day of the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The Kiwi trades around 0.5950, tracking broader USD moves and awaiting US labour data out later today – it has underperformed its Australian counterpart with no domestic catalysts for today. A soft NFP print could see the Kiwi test 0.6000, but this currency pair is likely to remain range-bound ahead of the weekend unless payrolls significantly surprise to the upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Unemployment Rate (11:50 pm GMT 1st May)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly edged higher from 2.4% in the previous month to 2.5% in March. Although the rate exceeded the forecast of 2.4%, unemployment has remained relatively stable since last August. USD/JPY rose 1.7% on Thursday as it rallied strongly to break above 145 – this currency pair hit 145.90 before pulling back at the beginning of Friday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Manufacturing PMI (8:00 am GMT)

CPI (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Euro Area manufacturing PMIs are expected to confirm the sector’s ongoing struggle, with most readings below 50. Despite this, April’s flash PMI reached 48.7, the highest in 27 months, showing improvement even while still in contraction territory. Meanwhile, headline consumer inflation is forecast to ease slightly to an annual rate of 2.1%, while core inflation may tick up to 2.5% in April. With the ECB having cut rates last month, softer inflation could reinforce expectations for further easing, potentially weighing on the Euro – U.S. jobs data will ultimately drive direction as well later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

Manufacturing PMI (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from CHF today?

With the Swiss franc maintaining its safe-haven appeal despite improved risk sentiment, USD/CHF hovered around 0.8300. Meanwhile, Swiss manufacturing PMI activity is expected to reach the neutral level of 50, up from 49.5, which could offer marginal support to the franc if confirmed. This currency pair will primarily follow U.S. labour data and broader risk appetite on the final trading day of the week, with a potential for strength in the franc if NFPs disappoint.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

After reaching a high of 1.3443 on Tuesday, demand for the pound waned as Cable fell 1.2% before stabilising around 1.3300 overnight. With no domestic catalysts on Friday, this currency pair will take direction entirely from U.S. payrolls data due for release later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Loonie continues to track broader USD flows ahead of the highly anticipated NFPs. Although oil prices have stabilised on Thursday to provide a modest floor for USD/CAD, this currency pair remains primarily sensitive to U.S. economic data. A soft NFP print could see USD/CAD test support around 1.3800.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After plummeting over 11% this week, crude oil prices stabilised overnight. WTI oil had dived as low as $56.39 on Thursday before consolidating around $58 per barrel. Oil prices have found a range as supply risks balance against demand concerns but the NFPs will drive broader risk sentiment, which in turn will no doubt impact demand for this commodity.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 2 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 2/5/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

FX traders are bracing for a busy end to the week, with key US employment data due out in the final trading session. This month’s data has taken on even more importance than usual, as it comes at the end of one of the most volatile trading months the market has seen in years, and investors are keen to see the impact that President Trump’s tariff moves have had on the jobs sector. Market expectation is for the headline number to show an increase of 138k jobs in the last month, with both the Average Hourly Earnings numbers and the Unemployment Rate remaining stable at 0.3% m/m and 4.2%, respectively.

The Aussie dollar has held up well against the dollar over the last couple of weeks, while many of the other majors have fallen back, and it now presents a strong trading opportunity if the data comes out significantly off expectations. The Aussie has traded strongly around the 0.6400 level since it rallied higher in mid-April from the annual low, and tonight’s numbers could see it break out of recent ranges. A weaker print than expected could see a strong move higher if the pair breaks through resistance levels on the hourly chart under 0.6450, while a stronger print could see it drop back into recent ranges, with the topside move likely to present the stronger move as it hits fresh territory.

Resistance 2: 0.6449 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 0.6439 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.6340 – 24 April Low
Support 2: 0.5912 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Aussie Dollar on the Non-Farm Payroll Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Wall Street Pushes Higher Again – Nasdaq Up 1.5%

US stocks pushed higher again in trading yesterday as both Meta and Microsoft reported strong earnings. The S&P and Dow clocked up their eighth straight day of gains, rising 0.63% and 0.21% respectively, whilst tech stocks helped the Nasdaq finish up 1.52% on the day. The dollar pushed higher again against the majors, with the yen a notable loser, the DXY up 0.59% to 100.20. Treasury yields pushed back from recent lower levels, the 2-year up 9.6 basis points to 3.698% and the 10-year up 5.5 basis points to 4.217%. Oil also gained back some ground on news of more sanctions on Iran from the US, Brent up 1.34% to $61.88 and WTI up 1.77% to $59.21. Gold continued to drop lower, losing 1.44% on the day to close at $3,240.29.

Non-Farm Payrolls to Move Markets Today

US Non-Farm Payroll data is due out today, and investors will be paying even closer attention to the number this month as it comes after weeks of tariff updates, and they are keen to see if the local market is reacting. Market expectation is for the headline number to show an increase of 138k jobs in the last month, with both the Average Hourly Earnings numbers and Unemployment Rate remaining stable at 0.3% m/m and 4.2% respectively. Any significant deviation from any of these key numbers will see a strong market reaction across markets. Wall Street has had a good run recently after being hit earlier in the month, but a significant weakening in the US jobs market could undo all of the recent work, whereas a strong print would indicate a resilient economy and could give the green light for further gains.

US Jobs Numbers in Focus for Markets Today

There is no doubt that the US jobs numbers will be the major focus for investors in today’s trading. However, there are another couple of data events scheduled, as well as the usual trade updates likely to hit the newswires. Asian markets will again be without Chinese liquidity today, but the initial focus will be on Australia, with Retail Sales numbers due out early in the session (exp 0.4% m/m). The London session will once again have a focus on European inflation data, with the EU Flash CPI Estimate (exp 2.1%) and Core CPI Estimate (exp 2.5%) due out before focus moves to the US and the big Non-Farms data. Australian markets will also be aware that Parliamentary Elections take place over the weekend, and any big surprises could lead to some gapping on the Monday open.

The post General Market Analysis – 02/05/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Ex-Dividend 1/5/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Flat but Rally After the Bell – Dow up 0.35%

US stocks recovered in trading yesterday to close near flat, but futures rallied after the bell on good earnings reports from both Meta and Microsoft. The Dow closed the session up 0.35%, the S&P up 0.15%, and the Nasdaq dipped just 0.09%. The dollar gained back some of its lost ground again, the DXY up 0.49% to 99.63, whilst Treasury yields slipped again, the 2-year down 4.7 basis points to 3.603% and the 10-year down 1 basis point to 4.163%. Oil prices were smashed again to lock in the worst month for over three years, Brent down 3.37% to $61.15 and WTI down 3.66% to $58.72 a barrel. Gold also slipped again, losing 0.85% on the day to close at $3,287.72.

Investors Hoping We May Have a Smoother Month Ahead

Some investors will be happy to see the end of what has been one of the most volatile months the market has seen for years. The major focus for markets over the course of the last four weeks has been US tariffs and President Trump’s back-flipping of proposed tariff levels and implementation plans that has left even the most experienced traders in a state of confusion. Traders are now hoping that the peak of tariff confusion is behind us and the next few weeks will bring more clarity to the market and allow for more informed investment decisions to be made. If we do start to get some trade deals completed in the near term, then expect optimism to creep back in, but if uncertainty and delays continue, we could see further downside across all products.

Choppy Calendar Day Ahead for Traders

It could be a choppy day ahead for global markets today with several major financial centers closed for holidays and some major macroeconomic events scheduled. The Asian session has Chinese markets closed today, but the major focus will be on Japan, with the Bank of Japan due to deliver its latest rate call during the day. There is little on the calendar in the London session, with Germany, France, Italy, and Switzerland markets all closed for May Day holidays, which will see liquidity diminished and any moves exacerbated. The New York session sees more key data releases today, with the Weekly Unemployment Claims (exp. 224k) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data (exp. 48.0) the highlights.

The post General Market Analysis – 01/05/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 April 2025

What happened in the Asia session?

Chinese manufacturing activity contracted more sharply than anticipated in April, as official data released Wednesday showed the sector was hit hard by a steep decline in overseas orders following the imposition of aggressive U.S. trade tariffs. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 49.0 in April, missing forecasts of 49.7 and falling from 50.5 in March. A reading below 50 signals contraction, marking a reversal after two months of recovery and the fastest pace of decline since early 2023.

This downturn coincided with an escalation in the trade war between China and the United States. In April, President Donald Trump imposed cumulative tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports, with some product categories facing total tariffs as high as 245%. China retaliated by raising tariffs on American goods to 125%. These measures severely disrupted trade flows, leading to a notable drop in new business orders and a sharp reduction in export shipments to the U.S., a key market for Chinese manufacturers.

The impact of these tariffs was immediate: Chinese factories, which had previously ramped up exports in anticipation of the new duties, saw demand from the U.S. plummet once the tariffs took effect. This contraction in manufacturing activity highlights the vulnerability of China’s export-driven recovery and underscores the broader economic risks posed by the ongoing trade conflict.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Consumer prices in Germany have moderated lower over the past few months, especially for core CPI which has eased from an annual rate of 3.3% in December to 2.6% in March. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further, the Euro could face some near-term headwinds on Wednesday.

The Liberal party’s win at the recent Canadian elections marked a fourth successive mandate with Mark Carney resuming his role as prime minister after having replaced Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberals just two months ago. This victory signalled an unexpected comeback for the Liberal party whose popularity had tanked under the leadership of Trudeau. Meanwhile, monthly GDP growth is expected to remain flat in February following a relatively strong gain of 0.4% in January. The ongoing tariff negotiations continue to cloud the outlook for many economies, including Canada, and growth output could take a hit over the next few months.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After rebounding strongly in March, private payroll growth is expected to moderate in April. Private payrolls had jumped from 84k in the previous month to 155k in March as sectors such as professional and business services, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, led the gains. The ADP is expected to show 114k jobs being added to the private sector while U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to slow significantly in the first quarter of this year. After expanding at an annual rate of 2.5% in the final quarter of last year, economic activity is now forecast to grow at just 0.2% – a figure weighed heavily by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After rebounding strongly in March, private payroll growth is expected to moderate in April. Private payrolls had jumped from 84k in the previous month to 155k in March as sectors such as professional and business services, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, led the gains. The ADP is expected to show 114k jobs being added to the private sector while U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to slow significantly in the first quarter of this year. After expanding at an annual rate of 2.5% in the final quarter of last year, economic activity is now forecast to grow at just 0.2% – a figure weighed heavily by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Although consumer inflation in Australia remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, it exceeded the market forecast of 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, inflation surged from 0.2% in the previous quarter to 0.9%, coming in higher than the 0.8% estimate. This ‘hot’ CPI print will likely light a fire under the Aussie, driving it higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After a strong rally last week, the Kiwi looks to have run out of steam over the past couple of days as it dipped under 0.5950. Overhead pressures could continue to build on Wednesday as this currency pair slid toward 0.5900 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (11:50 pm GMT 29th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Consumer spending in Japan increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in March following a downwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous month, but below market expectations of 3.5%. This report marked the 36th straight month of expansion in retail sales, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales grew for categories such as fuel, automobile, machinery and equipment, clothing and personal goods, and food and beverage. However, demand for the yen has dampened since last week, causing USD/JPY to hover around 142.50 over the last couple of days.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany CPI (Tentative)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Consumer prices in Germany have moderated lower over the past few months, especially for core CPI which has eased from an annual rate of 3.3% in December to 2.6% in March. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further, the Euro could face some near-term headwinds on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc has given up some of last week’s gains as it reversed off last week’s lows at 0.8046 to briefly climb above 0.8300 on Monday. This currency pair was floating around 0.8230 as Asian markets came online but it could continue to grind higher as demand for safe-haven assets begin to wane.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable made a high of 1.3443 on Tuesday before falling below 1.3400. After rallying 3.8% over the past three weeks, traders could now be looking to book profits on this currency pair. Headwinds for the pound are building and we could see Cable drift lower on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Liberal party’s win at the recent Canadian elections marked a fourth successive mandate with Mark Carney resuming his role as prime minister after having replaced Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberals just two months ago. This victory signalled an unexpected comeback for the Liberal party whose popularity had tanked under the leadership of Trudeau. Meanwhile, monthly GDP growth is expected to remain flat in February following a relatively strong gain of 0.4% in January. The ongoing tariff negotiations continue to cloud the outlook for many economies, including Canada, and growth output could take a hit over the next few months.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After falling sharply by 4.6M in the prior week, the API stockpiles gained 3.8M barrels of crude in the latest report to signal weaker demand for oil in the United States. Coupled with a dampened outlook for global demand due to the ongoing trade policy uncertainties, oil prices fell swiftly this week. WTI oil tumbled over 5% since Monday and prices for this benchmark were slipping toward the $60 mark. Should the EIA report also continue to build and register a fifth successive week of rising inventories, this commodity will face even stronger headwinds.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Advance Again – Dow up 0.75%

US stocks pushed higher in trading yesterday as investors continued to digest recent updates and look ahead to key earnings reports. The Dow led the way higher, closing up 0.75% on the day, followed by the S&P and Nasdaq, which rose 0.58% and 0.55% respectively. The dollar gained some ground against the majors, the DXY up 0.16%, while Treasury yields fell again on increased hopes of a Fed rate cut—the 2-year off 4.3 basis points to 3.650% and the 10-year down 3.7 basis points to 4.172%. Oil prices crashed back to 2-week lows, Brent down 2.93% to $63.93 and WTI down 2.63% to $60.42. Gold also fell lower, down 0.77% on the day, to close at $3,315.63.

Major Currencies Prepped for Big Moves

FX traders are preparing for a big few days ahead as key data out of the United States is due to drop, and many of the major pairs are sitting at key technical levels. The greenback has taken a huge hit in the last few weeks after President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ as tariff fears have dominated flow. However, fundamental data due out in the next few days could see those moves either corrected strongly or pushed even further. Most of the major currencies are now sitting, given recent volatility, close to dollar lows, and a succession of poor numbers out of the States—particularly in jobs numbers and inflation—could see those levels break and moves accelerate to the downside for the dollar. Stronger numbers could reassure markets that the US economy is still running strongly, pull back expectations of Fed rate cuts, and see majors pull back into recent ranges.

Full Event Calendar Day Ahead for Traders

The macroeconomic calendar is full of updates today that should see the market focus transfer to fundamentals, away from geopolitical updates. The Asia session kicks off with key data releases out of Australia and China scheduled at the same time. Australian CPI data (exp. 0.8% q/q and 2.3% y/y) and Chinese PMI data (Manufacturing exp. 49.7 and Non-Manufacturing exp. 50.6) both have the propensity to move their respective markets, and we could see some sharp moves if they miss expectations. There will be more focus on inflation once London opens, with German CPI data (exp. 0.3%) due out throughout the day on a state-by-state basis. But the real hits will come once New York opens, as we have a huge data drop in the US with ADP non-farms (exp. 114k), Advance GDP (exp. 0.2%), Employment Cost Index (exp. 0.9%), and the Core PCE Price Index (exp. 0.1%) all due for release during the session, as well as Canadian GDP data (exp. 0.0%).

The post General Market Analysis – 30/04/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 100.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify. 

1st support: 98.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 101.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1427

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.1147
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.1567

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 164.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 160.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 166.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance. 

Pivot: 0.8446

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8377
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8519
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction:  Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3425

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3206
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, acting as a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.3543
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 191.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 189.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 193.73
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8195

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.8046
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8372
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 141.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 140.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 144.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3794

Supporting reasons:  Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound 

1st support: 1.3750
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3894
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6459
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 0.6342

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 0.6523
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5887
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.5828

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.6019

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 40,673.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 37,844.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 42,740.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 22,521.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 21,523.30

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,438.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,480.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum. 

1st support: 5,101.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 5,785.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 95,364.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 92,463.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more. The presence of the green Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the strength of the bullish momentum.

1st resistance: 99,293.10
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could rise toward the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1,828.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1,669.20
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1,947.17
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall toward the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 58.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.

1st support: 55.83
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 64.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3349.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify

1st support: 3240.37
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, acting as a potential level where price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 3492.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 30th April 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 April 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

After decreasing from 7.76M to 7.48M in February, job openings dwindled down to 7.19M in March to mark the second consecutive month of decline. Not only did the latest figures undershoot the forecast of 7.49M by a wide margin, but it was also the lowest in six months. This drop was broad-based with sectors such as transportation, warehousing, and utilities, accommodation and food services, construction, federal government, real estate and rental and leasing, and health care and social assistance reporting the largest decreases. 

Meanwhile, consumer confidence plunged once more in April to register a fifth successive month of decline as reported by the Conference Board. April’s fall in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. The lack of confidence was largely driven by consumers’ expectations for business conditions, employment prospects, and future income – all of which deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Despite the gloomy data, demand for the greenback was steady on Tuesday as the dollar index (DXY) reached an overnight high of 99.37.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Consumer spending in Japan increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in March following a downwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous month, but below market expectations of 3.5%. This report marked the 36th straight month of expansion in retail sales, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales grew for categories such as fuel, automobile, machinery and equipment, clothing and personal goods, and food and beverage. However, demand for the yen has dampened since last week, causing USD/JPY to hover around 142.50 over the last couple of days.

Although consumer inflation in Australia remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, it exceeded the market forecast of 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, inflation surged from 0.2% in the previous quarter to 0.9%, coming in higher than the 0.8% estimate. This ‘hot’ CPI print will likely light a fire under the Aussie, driving it higher as the day progresses.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

After rebounding strongly in March, private payroll growth is expected to moderate in April. Private payrolls had jumped from 84k in the previous month to 155k in March as sectors such as professional and business services, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, led the gains. The ADP is expected to show 114k jobs being added to the private sector while U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to slow significantly in the first quarter of this year. After expanding at an annual rate of 2.5% in the final quarter of last year, economic activity is now forecast to grow at just 0.2% – a figure weighed heavily by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25 to 4.50% on 19 March 2025
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run but uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased; the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while the unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labour market conditions remain solid. However, inflation remains somewhat elevated.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised downward for 2025 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in the December projection) while PCE inflation projections have been adjusted slightly higher for 2025, with core inflation expected to reach 2.5%, partly due to tariff-related pressures.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals.
• Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25B to $5B while maintaining the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35B.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 6 to 7 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

After rebounding strongly in March, private payroll growth is expected to moderate in April. Private payrolls had jumped from 84k in the previous month to 155k in March as sectors such as professional and business services, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, education and health services, led the gains. The ADP is expected to show 114k jobs being added to the private sector while U.S. GDP growth is anticipated to slow significantly in the first quarter of this year. After expanding at an annual rate of 2.5% in the final quarter of last year, economic activity is now forecast to grow at just 0.2% – a figure weighed heavily by the ongoing trade policy uncertainties between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

CPI (1:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Although consumer inflation in Australia remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, it exceeded the market forecast of 2.3%. On a quarterly basis, inflation surged from 0.2% in the previous quarter to 0.9%, coming in higher than the 0.8% estimate. This ‘hot’ CPI print will likely light a fire under the Aussie, driving it higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on 1 April, following a 25-basis point reduction on 18 February.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
• Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy.
• Private domestic demand appears to be recovering, real household incomes have picked up and there has been an easing in some measures of financial stress. However, businesses in some sectors continue to report that weakness in demand makes it difficult to pass on cost increases to final prices.
• At the same time, a range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.
• There are notable uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to continue to increase as income growth rises. But there is a risk that any pick-up in consumption is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market than currently expected.
• Uncertainty about the outlook abroad also remains significant. On the macroeconomic policy front, recent announcements from the U.S. on tariffs are having an impact on confidence globally and this would likely be amplified if the scope of tariffs widens, or other countries take retaliatory measures. Geopolitical uncertainties are also pronounced.
• The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy remains restrictive and the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook.
• The Board will rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
• The next meeting is on 20 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

After a strong rally last week, the Kiwi looks to have run out of steam over the past couple of days as it dipped under 0.5950. Overhead pressures could continue to build on Wednesday as this currency pair slid toward 0.5900 at the beginning of the Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points bringing it down to 3.50% on 9 April, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation remains near the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band while firms’ inflation expectations and core inflation are consistent with inflation remaining at target over the medium term.
• Economic activity has evolved largely as expected since the February Monetary Policy Statement; higher-than-expected export prices and a lower exchange rate have supported primary sector incomes and overall economic growth.
• Although monetary restraint had been removed at pace, household spending and residential investment have remained weak.
• The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for global economic activity. On balance, these developments create downside risks to the outlook for economic activity and inflation.
• The Committee noted that the increase in tariffs will take time to work through the global economy, but the direct price increases for economies imposing tariffs and the dampening impact of increased economic uncertainty on global demand will occur relatively quickly.
• With CPI inflation close to the mid-point of the target range, significant spare capacity in the economy, and a weaker activity outlook stemming from global trade policy, the Committee agreed that a further reduction in the OCR was appropriate.
• Meanwhile, future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 28 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

Retail Sales (11:50 pm GMT 29th April)

What can we expect from JPY today?

Consumer spending in Japan increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in March following a downwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous month, but below market expectations of 3.5%. This report marked the 36th straight month of expansion in retail sales, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales grew for categories such as fuel, automobile, machinery and equipment, clothing and personal goods, and food and beverage. However, demand for the yen has dampened since last week, causing USD/JPY to hover around 142.50 over the last couple of days.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 March, by a unanimous vote, to maintain the following guidelines for money market operations for the inter-meeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%.
  2. The Bank will continue its plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs, aiming to reach about 3 trillion yen by January-March 2026.
• Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, with some sectors showing improvement. Exports and industrial production have remained relatively stable, while corporate profits continue on an improving trend and business sentiment maintains a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has shown moderate improvement, with private consumption on a moderately increasing trend despite ongoing impacts from price rises.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.0-3.5% recently. Services prices continue to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, while the effects of cost pass-through from past import price rises have diminished.
• Inflation expectations have continued to rise moderately, with underlying CPI inflation gradually increasing toward the price stability target of 2%. The virtuous cycle between wages and prices continues to strengthen, with businesses increasingly reflecting higher costs in selling prices.
• Japan’s economy is expected to maintain growth above its potential rate, supported by moderately growing overseas economies and the intensifying virtuous cycle from income to spending, underpinned by accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 1 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany CPI (Tentative)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Consumer prices in Germany have moderated lower over the past few months, especially for core CPI which has eased from an annual rate of 3.3% in December to 2.6% in March. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further, the Euro could face some near-term headwinds on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17 April to mark the sixth successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 2.40%, 2.65% and 2.25% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track with both headline and core inflation declining in March while services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months. Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Wage growth is moderating, and profits are partially buffering the impact of still elevated wage growth on inflation. The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions.
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
• The asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
• The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target. Especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty, it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.
• In particular, the Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 5 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc has given up some of last week’s gains as it reversed off last week’s lows at 0.8046 to briefly climb above 0.8300 on Monday. This currency pair was floating around 0.8230 as Asian markets came online but it could continue to grind higher as demand for safe-haven assets begin to wane.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.25% on 20 March 2025, marking the fifth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased further this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected, decreasing from 0.7% in November to 0.3% in February, primarily due to lower electricity prices.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland remains moderate, with the services sector continuing to show slightly stronger growth, while manufacturing faces challenges.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 19 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable made a high of 1.3443 on Tuesday before falling below 1.3400. After rallying 3.8% over the past three weeks, traders could now be looking to book profits on this currency pair. Headwinds for the pound are building and we could see Cable drift lower on Wednesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.50% on 19 March 2025, while one member preferred to reduce it by 25 basis points (bps).
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.0% in January from 2.5% in December, slightly higher than expected in the February Report; domestic price and wage pressures are moderating, but remain somewhat elevated.
• Although global energy prices have fallen back recently, they remain higher than last year and CPI inflation is still projected to rise to around 3.75% in 2025 Q3. While CPI inflation is expected to fall back thereafter, the Committee will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures.
• While UK GDP growth estimates have been slightly stronger than expected at the time of the February Monetary Policy Report, business survey indicators generally continue to suggest weakness in growth and particularly in employment intentions. In recent quarters, subdued activity has been judged to reflect both demand and supply factors.
• The labour market had continued to ease, although it was still judged to be broadly in balance – some indicators of employment intentions had deteriorated markedly, to levels consistent with shrinking employment while other indicators, such as the number of vacancies, had not weakened to the same extent.
• Domestic price and wage pressures were moderating, but remained somewhat elevated. A range of indicators suggested that underlying pay growth had eased further in recent months, although annual growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had picked up to 6.1% in the three months to January.
• Based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate and it will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evolving evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 8 May 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Liberal party’s win at the recent Canadian elections marked a fourth successive mandate with Mark Carney resuming his role as prime minister after having replaced Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberals just two months ago. This victory signalled an unexpected comeback for the Liberal party whose popularity had tanked under the leadership of Trudeau. Meanwhile, monthly GDP growth is expected to remain flat in February following a relatively strong gain of 0.4% in January. The ongoing tariff negotiations continue to cloud the outlook for many economies, including Canada, and growth output could take a hit over the next few months.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70% – marking the first pause after seven consecutive meetings where rates were reduced.
• The major shift in direction of U.S. trade policy and the unpredictability of tariffs have increased uncertainty, diminished prospects for economic growth, and raised inflation expectations.
• Pervasive uncertainty makes it unusually challenging to project GDP growth and inflation in Canada and globally – the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents two scenarios that explore different paths for US trade policy.
• In the first scenario, uncertainty is high but tariffs are limited in scope – Canadian growth weakens temporarily and inflation remains around the 2% target. In the second scenario, a protracted trade war causes Canada’s economy to fall into recession this year and inflation rises temporarily above 3% next year.
• Global economic growth was solid in late 2024 and inflation has been easing towards central bank targets. However, tariffs and uncertainty have weakened the outlook. In the U.S., the economy is showing signs of slowing amid rising policy uncertainty and rapidly deteriorating sentiment, while inflation expectations have risen. In the Euro Area, growth has been modest in early 2025, with continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. China’s economy was strong at the end of 2024 but more recent data shows it slowing modestly.
• In Canada, the economy is slowing as tariff announcements and uncertainty pull down consumer and business confidence. Consumption, residential investment and business spending all look to have weakened in the first quarter. Trade tensions are also disrupting recovery in the labour market. Employment declined in March and businesses are reporting plans to slow their hiring. Wage growth continues to show signs of moderation.
• The Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs while proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy.
• Monetary policy cannot resolve trade uncertainty or offset the impacts of a trade war and the Governing Council will focus on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval by supporting economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well-controlled.
• The next meeting is on 4 June 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

After falling sharply by 4.6M in the prior week, the API stockpiles gained 3.8M barrels of crude in the latest report to signal weaker demand for oil in the United States. Coupled with a dampened outlook for global demand due to the ongoing trade policy uncertainties, oil prices fell swiftly this week. WTI oil tumbled over 5% since Monday and prices for this benchmark were slipping toward the $60 mark. Should the EIA report also continue to build and register a fifth successive week of rising inventories, this commodity will face even stronger headwinds.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 April 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Australian dollar traders are preparing for a busy morning today, with key inflation data due out in the morning session that could move the currency out of its recent tight range. The Aussie has been trading in a relatively tight range for the last week since charging higher from annual lows hit earlier in the month, as the USD collapsed. The last week has seen the pair kept within a 0.6330/0.6450 range, and a big deviation from expectation on today’s data could see this broken.

Expectation is for the quarter-on-quarter number to show a 0.8% increase, with the year-on-year number coming in with a 2.3% increase—still slightly above the 2% that the Reserve Bank would like to see it at. Anything north of these estimates could see the currency break higher, as expectations for a cut from the RBA are pulled back, whilst a lower number would give the green light for further cuts and see the pair drop back into lower ranges seen earlier in the month.

Resistance 2: 0.6775 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance
Resistance 1: 0.6449 – Trendline Resistance and 2025 High

Support 1: 0.6320 – April 15 Low
Support 2: 0.5912 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Aussie on CPI Data Today first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.