Articles

• Prior +2.7%
• HICP +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.7%

Core annual inflation holds steady at 2.4%, similar in August. So even with the increase in headline prices, that’s still the more important reading to be wary of here. Nothing to change the ECB outlook for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• The US and China should engage in talks

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.16%, Shanghai Composite up 0.10%, Hang Seng up 1.20% ASX up 0.81%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,205.06 (1.00%), Silver at $51.160 (1.06%), Brent Oil at $61.15 (-0.38%), WTI Oil at $58.51 (-0.32%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.013, UK 10-year yield at 4.5870, Germany 10-year yield at 2.6071

News & Data:

• (CAD) Building Permits m/m  -1.2%  to -0.7% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday, following mixed cues from Wall Street overnight, as optimism about further interest rate cuts continues after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled two more quarter-point cuts this year, citing slower job growth. However, renewed U.S.-China trade tensions are weighing on sentiment. On Tuesday, Powell warned there was “no risk-free path” in balancing employment and inflation goals. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump accused China of being “economically hostile” by halting U.S. soybean purchases and hinted at further trade restrictions. China responded, accusing the U.S. of harmful measures undermining bilateral trade talks.

Australian shares are trading significantly higher, extending gains from the previous session. The S&P/ASX 200 is up 73.30 points or 0.82 percent to 8,972.70, led by miners and financials, while energy stocks are weak. Major miners BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto are up around 0.5 percent each. Commonwealth Bank and Westpac are gaining nearly 2 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also surging, up 1.31 percent to 47,463.31, supported by tech and export stocks. SoftBank gained 3 percent, while Advantest and Screen Holdings advanced nearly 4 percent.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong and South Korea are up 1.6 percent each, while other regional markets post smaller gains. On Wall Street, stocks ended mixed amid late-session volatility, and crude oil prices declined over 1 percent to $58.79 per barrel.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Wholesale Sales m/m

The post Wednesday 15th October 2025: Asian Markets Gain on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Despite Renewed U.S.-China Trade Tensions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Asian markets were mostly driven by weak Chinese inflation data, Fed rate cut expectations, and fluctuating trade tensions, with equities, FX, and commodities showing pronounced volatility in response to these developments. The U.S. dollar was under pressure as market participants increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut following dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, bolstering Asian stocks early in the session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Monitor China’s economic data for indications of stabilization or further deflationary pressure, as this will influence overall Asian market sentiment. Key central bank speeches, particularly from the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia, may trigger volatility across FX and equity markets. U.S. financial sector earnings are expected to set the tone for risk appetite today. Meanwhile, heightened trade tensions and potential geopolitical escalations keep both risk assets and safe havens in focus. Oil, equities, and Bitcoin remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic headlines and central bank communications throughout the day.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar edged lower, driven by expectations for Fed rate cuts, government shutdown worries, and trade tensions with China. The dollar’s strength earlier in the month moderated, with risk-sensitive currencies and safe havens showing mixed performance. Analysts expect further weakness for the dollar if economic and policy risks do not subside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25% at its September 16–17, 2025, meeting, marking the first policy rate adjustment since December 2024 after five consecutive holds.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objective of achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation, acknowledging recent labor market softening and continued tariff-driven price pressures.
• Policymakers expressed elevated concern about downside risks to growth, citing a stalling labor market, modest job creation, and an unemployment rate drifting up toward 4.4%. At the same time, inflation remains above target, with CPI at 3.2% and core inflation at 3.1% as of August 2025; higher energy and food prices, largely attributable to tariffs, continue to weigh on headline measures.
• Although economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the third quarter, the growth outlook has weakened. Q3 GDP growth is estimated near 1.0% (annualized), with full-year 2025 GDP growth guidance revised to 1.2%, reflecting slowing household consumption and tighter financial conditions.
• In the updated Summary of Economic Projections, the unemployment rate is projected to average 4.5% for the year, with headline PCE inflation revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2025. The Committee anticipates core PCE inflation to remain stubborn, requiring sustained vigilance and a flexible approach to risk management.
• The Committee reiterated its data-dependent approach and openness to further adjustments should employment or inflation deviate meaningfully from current forecasts. Several members dissented, either advocating a larger 50-basis-point cut or preferring no adjustment at this meeting, revealing heightened divergence within the Committee.
• Balance sheet reduction continues at a measured pace. The monthly Treasury redemption cap remains at $5B and the agency MBS cap at $35B, as the Board aims to support orderly market conditions in the face of evolving global and domestic uncertainty
• The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold’s uptrend is expected to continue as markets digest global policy risks and central banks reassess reserve strategies. However, traders should stay alert for near-term pullbacks as profit-taking increases around historic highs. The rally is fueled by a flight to safe-haven assets, particularly following the US announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, with both countries imposing new port fees and trade restrictions

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro faces a challenging environment on Wednesday, October 15, caught between domestic political instability in France, modest growth prospects, and external risks from US-China trade tensions. While ECB officials maintain the disinflation process is complete with inflation around the 2% target, they signal readiness for further policy adjustments if conditions deteriorate. The immediate focus shifts to eurozone industrial production data due Wednesday morning, which could provide critical signals about manufacturing sector health.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged at its meeting on September 11, 2025. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. These levels have been maintained after the cuts earlier in 2025, reflecting the Council’s confidence that the current stance is consistent with the price stability mandate.
• Evidence that inflation is running close to the ECB’s medium-term target of 2% supported the decision to hold rates steady. Domestic price pressures are easing as wage growth continues to moderate, and financing conditions remain accommodative. Policymakers reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to further policy moves, with no pre-commitment to a predetermined path amid ongoing global and domestic risks.
• Eurosystem staff projections foresee headline inflation averaging 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% in 2027. The 2025 and 2026 forecasts reflect a downward revision, primarily on lower energy costs and exchange rate effects, even as food inflation remains persistent. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is expected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2027, with only minor changes since prior rounds.
• Real GDP growth in the euro area is projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. A robust first quarter—partly due to firms accelerating exports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes—cushioned a weaker outlook for the remainder of 2025. While business investment continues to face uncertainty from ongoing global trade disputes, especially with the US, government investment and infrastructure spending are expected to provide some support to the outlook.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• Rising real incomes and continued strength in the labor market boost household spending. Despite some fading tailwind from previous rate cuts, financing conditions remain broadly favorable and are expected to underpin the resilience of private consumption and investment against outside shocks. Moderating wage growth and profit margin adjustments are helping to absorb residual cost pressures.
• All future interest rate decisions will continue to be guided by the integrated assessment of economic and financial data, the inflation outlook, and underlying inflation dynamics, and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission—without any pre-commitment to a specific future rate path.
• The ECB’s Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) portfolios are declining predictably, as maturities have ceased to be reinvested. Balance-sheet normalization continues in line with the ECB’s previously communicated schedule.
• The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

CHF strength is fueled by continuing risk aversion, weak global sentiment, and steady Swiss disinflation. The SNB is widely seen as likely to cut rates before year-end if deflation persists. Legal questions after the Credit Suisse bond ruling present fresh uncertainty for Swiss finance. Technical analysts see near-term resistance just above 0.80 USD/CHF, and potential for volatility in the coming weeks. The Swiss Franc remains a favored haven for investors during market stress, but faces mixed prospects amid domestic and global developments.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British pound faces significant headwinds entering mid-October 2025, with the currency trading near two-month lows around $1.33 following disappointing labor market data that showed rising unemployment and slowing wage growth. The weaker jobs report has intensified speculation about additional Bank of England rate cuts, though markets expect any easing to be delayed until spring 2026. Meanwhile, persistently high inflation at 3.8% the highest among G7 nations, complicates the BoE’s policy path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted on 18 September 2025 by a majority (expected split likely 7–2 or 6–3) to hold the Bank Rate steady at 4.00%, following the August rate cut. Most members cited persistent inflation and mixed indicators on growth and employment, while a minority favored further easing due to the cooling labor market and subdued GDP growth.
• The Committee decided to decrease the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, instead of the prior £100 billion pace, with the gilt balance now standing at nearly £558 billion. This reflects increased volatility in bond markets and a shift to a more gradual approach.
• Headline inflation rose unexpectedly to 3.8% in July and is projected at 4% for September, above the Bank’s 2% target. Price pressures are driven by regulated energy costs and ongoing food price increases. While previous disinflation has been substantial, core inflation remains elevated and sticky.
• The MPC expects headline inflation to remain above target through Q4, with a resumption of the downward trend projected for early 2026 as energy and regulated price pressures abate. The Committee remains watchful for signs of persistent inflation despite previous policy tightening.
• UK GDP growth is stagnant, with business and consumer activity subdued. Recent labor market data show rising unemployment rates (now at 4.7%) and stabilizing wage growth (holding near 5%), indicating slack but continued wage price pressure. The Committee remains cautious amid lackluster demand and soft survey sentiment.
• Pay growth and employment indicators have moderated further, alongside confirmation from business surveys that pay settlements are slowing. The Committee expects wage growth to decelerate significantly through Q4 and the rest of 2025.
• Global uncertainty persists due to volatile energy prices, supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East conflicts, and renewed trade tensions. The MPC remains vigilant in tracking transmission of external cost/wage shocks to UK inflation.
• Risks to inflation are considered two-sided. While subdued domestic growth and softening labor activity suggest scope for easing, persistent inflation requires caution. The MPC anticipates a slow, gradual reduction path in rates, continuing its data-dependent approach with careful adjustment as warranted by economic developments.
• The Committee’s bias remains toward maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance until firmer evidence emerges that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. All future decisions will remain highly data dependent, with a strong emphasis on evolving demand, inflation expectations, costs, and labor market conditions.
• The next meeting is on 6 November 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar faces multiple headwinds trading near six-month lows against the U.S. dollar. Collapsing oil prices, ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, and a struggling domestic economy continue to pressure the loonie. While stronger-than-expected September employment data reduced expectations for an October rate cut by the Bank of Canada, underlying labor market weakness persists.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council cited continued U.S. tariff volatility and slow progress on trade negotiations as major contributors to ongoing uncertainty. While headline tariffs have not escalated further, the unpredictability of U.S. policy remains a significant risk for Canadian exports and business confidence.
• Uncertainty about U.S. trade policy and recurring tariff threats continued to weigh on growth prospects. The Bank flagged downside risks to the export sector, with survey data indicating ongoing hesitancy among manufacturers and exporters.
• After modest growth in Q1, Canada’s economy slipped into contraction, with GDP shrinking by 0.8% in Q2 and forecast to decrease again by 0.8% in Q3. Economic weakness has been most pronounced in manufacturing and goods-producing sectors affected by trade frictions and softer U.S. demand.
• Early estimates show that growth stabilized in September but remained well below the Bank’s 2% forecast for Q4. Manufacturing output has improved slightly—supported by a modest rebound in petroleum and mining activity—while consumer spending and retail sales were largely flat.
• Consumer spending remained subdued as households continued to limit discretionary purchases amid uncertainty and a slower job market. Housing activity stayed weak, despite earlier government efforts to boost affordability and modest gains in some real estate segments.
• Headline CPI inflation edged up to 1.9% in August, undershooting economist expectations but still showing emerging pressures from shelter and imported goods costs. Core inflation metrics were mixed, though price growth remains just below the Bank’s 2% target.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed its cautious approach, emphasizing that while further rate cuts are possible, the pace will hinge on the path of U.S. tariffs, domestic inflation dynamics, and signs of a sustainable recovery. The Bank remains vigilant against the risk of inflation falling below target in the face of economic slack.
• The next meeting is on 29 October 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA crude oil inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets on Wednesday remain under severe pressure from multiple bearish factors. The IEA’s warning of a record 4 million bpd supply surplus in 2026, combined with OPEC+ production increases totaling over 2.7 million bpd this year, has created expectations of massive inventory builds ahead. Escalating US-China trade tensions threaten to further weaken demand in the world’s two largest economies, while structural shifts toward electric vehicles and peak gasoline consumption compound long-term challenges.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 October 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior +0.9%
• HICP +1.1% vs +1.1% y/y prelim
• Prior +0.8%

The report shows price rises across the board compared to August. Services inflation is seen up to 2.4% from 2.1% in the month before while core annual inflation is seen up slightly to 1.3% from 1.2% in August. The overall chart:

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

After some light profit-taking in European trading yesterday, dip buyers were quick to step in and that is seeing gold extend its run higher again today. The precious metal is up another 1.3% to a fresh record high of $4,196 as it closes in on the $4,200 mark next. A softer dollar today is helping to feed into the move higher in prices as well. Gold now looks poised for nine consecutive weeks of gains. 🔥

Elsewhere, silver is also rallying back after the drop yesterday with prices up 1.9% to $52.40 currently. In similar fashion, the precious metal is also eyeing nine straight weeks of gains as the hot run stretches on in October trading.

But as mentioned here, November might prove to be a trickier period – at least in terms of seasonal patterns.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

10-year Treasury yields have been on the decline this week but once again, it is meeting a bit of a pause near the 4% mark. It’s familiar territory as the key level is what halted the market move back in April and also in September. The drop in yields in April did touch a low of 3.86% but the birth of the TACO trade saw a quick reversal in yields moving back up above 4% after.

So, what’s the story this time around?

The drop this week is stirred by US-China trade tensions and we’re seeing a bend but don’t break situation for now. 10-year yields flirting with the 4% mark is one to take note of for broader markets, so let’s see what the balance of scales would imply.

There’s two sides to the story now. One, being that yields have already been driven lower amid more dovish Fed expectations ever since Jackson Hole in August. Besides that, softer US economic data especially in the labour market is only helping to reaffirm the market outlook on the Fed.

And Trump threatening to escalate trade tensions with China only adds to that, with investors chasing a flight to safety i.e. bid in bonds. That is not to mention the negative connotations towards the US economy from a trade/tariffs war with China.

However, the other side of story implores that there are still risks to inflation that might not have shown up in the data yet. The Fed seems adamant to play down the impact from tariffs passthrough, arguing for it to be temporary. That being said, we all know how central banks can be wrong on matter such as this. Just think back to the whole “inflation is transitory” debate after the Covid pandemic.

So, there is definitely a risk that tariffs inflation could be more persistent and stubborn. That especially if the trade war with China escalates further and becomes more prolonged.

The thing about the two arguments above is that one is much easier to see than the other. Meanwhile, the other seems to be requiring a much longer time to even get a sense of its potential impact.

If the US labour market softens further, it just serves to reaffirm market expectations on the Fed outlook. And if not, it will help to accelerate a more dovish pricing if the data really is bad. In turn, that means a further decline in yields will be coming.

As for the inflation argument, the only thing that the naysayers can wait for is the US CPI and PCE reports each and every month. And amid a US government shutdown in October, they won’t have anything to work with this month.

I feel that the 4% mark in 10-year yields is a key line in the sand now in defining the bias on both sides of the story. If either side is to run away with it and exert their narrative on broader markets, it will be based on which side of the 4% level that yields will stray.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Japan’s markets unwind Abenomics “2” trades as Komeito exit fuels political uncertainty
• ConocoPhillips warn oil market sentiment may be too bearish as physical supply stays tight
• S&P affirm New Zealand ratings
• Recap: China deflation eases but persists, longest price decline streak since 1970s reform
• China sees Trump’s stock market fixation as leverage in trade standoff (WSJ)
• China September CPI -0.3% y/y (vs. expected -0.2%)
• The PBOC cracking 7.1 in its USD/CNY fix has sent the USD lower across the board
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.0995 !!! (vs. estimate at 7.1281)
• JPMorgan’s Dimon says owning gold makes sense in today’s market, could go to US$10,000
• RBNZ’s Conway says a bit ‘nerve wracking’ with inflation at the top of its target band
• EUR4.13bn strikes in EUR/USD circa 1.1600. A likely magnet for EUR/USD in Asia.
• Standard Chartered sees euro slipping to 1.13 by mid-2026: rate cuts, growth headwinds
• PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1281 – Reuters estimate
• Australian September Leading Index “nudges back up to just over trend”
• More from RBA’s Hunter: Policy being set on a 1 to 2 year horizon, its foreward looking
• RBNZ’s Conway: No new monetary policy tools planned, OCR remains main policy instrument
• RBA’s Hunter: Inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3
• RBNZ’s Conway: Rates of 2.5% at lower end of neutral range, but we are feeling our way
• ICYMI: Deutsche Bank upgrade Europe vs US, sees 12–16% upside. Stimulus & earnings rebound
• RBNZ’s Conway doesn’t expect to use additional monetary policy tools again any time soon
• Global investors crowd into gold as bullish sentiment hits eight-month high — BofA survey
• Economists want Waller as new Fed Chair. But, sry Chris, Trump is just not that into you.
• US moves to seize $12 billion in bitcoin tied to Cambodia scam kingpin Chen Zhi
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Conway says will close the gap between Dec, Feb meetings
• investingLive Americas FX wrap: Trump saps the momentum with a China tweet
• Powell remarks confirm October 28 – 29 rate-cut expectations, says JPMorgan
• China hits first US-linked ship with $1.7m “special port fee” in trade retaliation
• Japan to ban cryptocurrency insider trading with new rules – Nikkei reporting
• US stocks close mixed. Dow rises. Nasdaq falls
• More from Fed’s Collins: Inflation continues to be top of mind

It was a session dominated by central bank signals across the region, with New Zealand, Australia, Japan and China all in focus. The net effect was a stronger yen, firmer major FX against the dollar, and growing evidence that policy paths across the region are diverging.

New Zealand:

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway said the official cash rate (2.5%) sits at the lower end of its neutral range but reaffirmed that policymakers remain open to further easing if required. The RBNZ has cut by 300bps since August 2024, including last week’s surprise 50bp move, amid worries over the economy’s fragile state. His remarks reinforced the RBNZ’s willingness to act if growth fails to stabilise.

Australia:

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter said recent data showed Q3 inflation is a touch print hotter than forecast, pointing to a still-tight economy even as job growth slows. Speaking at a Citi event, she flagged sluggish productivity as a structural constraint that lowers Australia’s growth and wage “speed limits.” Her comments tempered expectations of near-term rate cuts, underscoring the RBA’s cautious approach as inflation risks remain sticky.

China:

The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY fixing below 7.10, a stronger-than-expected signal that triggered broad, if restrained, USD selling across G10 and Asia FX. EUR, GBP, and AUD all moved higher on the yuan’s strength.

Separately, China’s latest inflation data showed deflation lingering even as it eased marginally. CPI fell 0.3% y/y in September (vs –0.2% expected), while PPI declined 2.3%, marking a third consecutive year of factory-gate deflation. The only bright spot was core CPI, up 1.0% y/y, its highest in 19 months, suggesting some stabilisation in consumer demand.

Japan:

The yen extended its rebound as political uncertainty deepened. The market’s assumption of a Takaichi-led LDP government—and with it, a continuation of Abenomics—has weakened after Komeito’s exit from the ruling coalition. Jiji reported a parliamentary deadlock over the October 21 vote to select Japan’s next prime minister, keeping political risk elevated.

USD/JPY dropped to 151.00 and EUR/JPY to 175.50, as traders unwound weak-yen and long-equity positions.

The Nikkei 225, which had reached a record 48,597 earlier this month, has since corrected more than 2,000 points. It rose today.

Gold rose. Again.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) +1.13%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +1.2%
• Shanghai
  Composite +0.1%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +0.74%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ConocoPhillips CEO said physical oil markets are not showing signs of the oversupply many traders fear, suggesting a potential disconnect between market sentiment and actual fundamentals.

Speaking about global crude flows, he noted that floating inventories aren’t rising, and there is no significant increase in medium-sour crude arriving at the U.S. Gulf Coast—a pattern that would typically appear if producers had large volumes of spare capacity.

“You look at the physical market, and you don’t see that playing itself out,” he said, warning that “there could be a collision coming” between bearish expectations and tighter underlying supply.

The CEO added that while investors are watching for signs of a supply glut, ConocoPhillips sees little evidence of one. “A lot of the OPEC+ increases were paper barrels—they were already in the market,” he said, questioning when or if market bearishness will materialize.

—

The comments suggest fundamentals may support higher oil prices than futures imply, reinforcing a near-term bullish case for crude. A lack of visible inventory builds could pressure short positions if data continue to contradict bearish sentiment.

ps. I’m going to leave it up to readers to decide if he may be talking his book.

—

Also, other industry players take an opposite view:

• Gunvor: said that while talk of an oil market oversupply has circulated before — often proving wrong — this time the narrative appears to have more credibility given current market conditions.
• Trafigura: noted that traders have been aware of an impending surplus for about a year, adding that prices are likely to fall further from current levels.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

S&P: New Zealand ‘AA+/A-1+’ foreign currency and ‘AAA/a-1+’ local currency ratings affirmed

• New Zealand’s real GDP fell 1.1% over the 12 months to June 2025, and economy has contracted in three of the last five quarters

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I noted earlier the hit the USD was taking from the strong CNY setting:

• The PBOC cracking 7.1 in its USD/CNY fix has sent the USD lower across the board

While EUR is pinned by a large set of option expiries:

• EUR4.13bn strikes in EUR/USD circa 1.1600. A likely magnet for EUR/USD in Asia.

Other FX is ticking a touch stronger.

Except for yen. that has managed a very solid gain.

Political jockeying in Japan continues. The latest chatter is that the heads of Japan’s main opposition parties are expected to discuss whether they can close policy gaps and pick a candidate of their own for the nation’s premiership. The yen had weakened on the prospect of Takaichi becoming premier. She’s not out of the running, but not a lock either.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s deflation pressures eased slightly in September, though price declines remain entrenched, leaving the economy on course for its longest deflationary stretch since market reforms began in the late 1970s.

Official data showed factory-gate prices (PPI) fell 2.3% year-on-year

• marking a 36th consecutive monthly decline
• broadly in line with forecasts

Consumer prices (CPI) dropped 0.3%,

• weaker than expectations for a 0.2% fall,

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose to a 19-month high of 1%, suggesting tentative stabilization in some industrial sectors like coal mining and solar equipment, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Deflation has persisted since the pandemic, worsened by a property slump, weak consumer confidence, and industrial overcapacity, which has pushed companies into price wars. Despite policy efforts to curb excess competition and stabilise prices, China’s GDP deflator—the broadest gauge of economy-wide prices—has been negative for more than two years, the longest such run since records began in 1992.

Beijing has lowered its official 2025 inflation target to around 2%, the lowest in over two decades. Inflation, however, remains near zero, reflecting deep structural imbalances. Analysts expect upcoming Q3 economic activity data (due October 20) to show growth slowing from the first half, though China remains likely to meet its 5% full-year target, reducing the likelihood of new large-scale stimulus when the Communist Party meets later this month.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.