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The WSJ reports that Republicans are looking at a proposal that the Biden administration had floated: Limiting the deductibility of corporate salaries above $1m.

The move would raise around $20 billion per year, which still leaves a huge funding cap.

Bessent said this week that Republicans are looking to pass the bill before July 4, later than the initial Memorial Day push.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Microsoft (MSFT) is set to release its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the market closes today, Wednesday, April 30.

Expectations are for:

• Earnings per share (EPS) of $3.22,or a year-over-year increase of 9.52% (from $2.94).
• Revenue is projected to reach around $68.4 billion, an increase of 10.57% rise from the same period last year ($61.86 billion)

Investor attention will be firmly focused on Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment, with particular interest in Azure, which is expected to post 18% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching approximately $26.1 billion. Azure’s performance continues to serve as a key barometer of Microsoft’s strength in the cloud computing space.

In addition, Microsoft’s expanding AI portfolio—especially Microsoft 365 Copilot—remains under close scrutiny. While interest in these tools is strong, many customers are still evaluating the return on investment, and some partners have resorted to offering discounts to drive adoption.

Markets will also be watching for commentary on the potential impact of tariffs and trade policy, as these could weigh on enterprise demand and global IT spending.

The price of Microsoft is down -7.34% for the year after rising 12.09% 2024 (below the market averages). The all-time high was reached back in July 2024 at $468.35. To the lows reached on April 7 at $344.79, the price decline was -26.28%. The price is up 13.09% from the low.

The move to the upside has seen the price move back above it 50 day moving average at $386.17, giving the buyers a victory. If the price can stay above that level (currently trading at $388.38), the next key target comes against its 100-day moving average of $407.66 (+4.8% current levels). The 200 day moving averages at $414.37 (a gain of 6.7%).

Break back below the 50 day moving average and traders would look toward the 38.2% retracement at $371.18 (a decline of 4.3%)

Buyers are making a play above the 50-day moving average. Will the earnings support the move and keep the momentum going?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The headliners for earnings after the close today are Meta and Microsoft and whatever they deliver on earnings will be critical for those stocks and the Nasdaq. More broadly, I’ll be looking for a few things:

1) Indications on AI capex, including from Qualcomm

2) Any guidance around the strength of the consumer, though we got some very strong comments from Visa yesterday and they have better data than anyone. Someone like Cheesecake Factory could have something to say, as that’s a sensitive category.

3) CP might have some insight on the freight market

4) Energy companies could offer clues on capex, given low oil prices

Meta is right after the close and MSFT is scheduled for 4:15 pm ET.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is just crossing now, it should be good for risk assets.

Yuyuantantian is a Chinese social media account affiliated with China Central Television (CCTV). It operates generally on Weibo and has reported on China’s stance regarding US tariffs before and generally reflects state-sanctioned views.

In short, this might be a legitimate sign that real de-escalation talks are ongoing. That said, there has been semi-credible reporting that’s said the same since the G20 last week and Trump himself has said they’re talking.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic shifts in global capital flows away from US assets. The rally is expected to extend through the year, with a target of USD 200,000 by year-end.

Key Points:

• Capital Reallocation: Institutional investors are reallocating away from US equities and bonds, increasingly viewing BTC as an alternative reserve asset.

• Macro Indicators: A rising term premium, reflecting growing concerns over US fiscal sustainability and inflation, is strengthening BTC’s macro case.

• Accumulation Trends: Large BTC holders (‘whales’) continue to accumulate, a bullish signal for price action.

• ETF Flows: Funds have been rotating out of gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing the narrative of BTC as “digital gold”.

• Time-of-Day Analysis: BTC price trends show sustained upside during US trading hours, suggesting that flows are primarily US-driven.

Conclusion:

Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary of global de-dollarization and capital rotation themes, especially amid eroding confidence in US assets. With momentum accelerating, BTC is forecast to hit $120K in Q2 and $200K by year-end, assuming macro and flow trends continue.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Says Carney will come to the White House

That’s tentatively a good sign. USD/CAD is at the lows of the day, down 35 pips to 1.3798.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ECBs Makhlouf is speaking and says:

• Price risks less clear in he medium term than the near.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Treasury Secretary Bessent says

• Pres. Trump has created negotiating leverage
• On the verge of becoming an AI superpower
• The IRS revenue is up

One way of collecting additional revenue is to collect capital gains taxes from liquidation of positions.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Major European indices are closing with results.

In Germany today, a slew of economic data needed a mixed picture.

• Preliminary figures from Destatis showed that annual inflation eased slightly to 2.1% in April from 2.2% in March, though it came in just above the consensus estimate of 2.0%.
• Meanwhile, the economy showed modest signs of recovery, with GDP expanding by 0.2% in the first quarter—rebounding from a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter. Despite this improvement, analysts at ING warned that Germany could still face a rare third consecutive year of mild recession, stressing that economic revitalization should be a top priority for the incoming government.
• In the labor market, the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3% from 6.2%, while the number of unemployed rose by 4,000—well below both the prior increase of 26,000 and the expected 20,000.

A summary of the closing levels shows

• German DAX, +0.32%
• France’s CAC, +0.50%
• UK’s FTSE 100, +0.37%
• Spain’s Ibex, -0.59%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.71%.

As European traders exit for the day, US stocks or rebounding in trading the highest levels for the day but still down.

• Dow industrial average -178 points or -0.44%
• S&P index point at 44 points or -0.79%
• NASDAQ index -200 points or -1.16%

Looking at the US debt market, yields are mixed:

• 2-year yield 3.635%, -2.1 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.761%, -0.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.177%, +0.5 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.674%, +2.7 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There were rumors yesterday that India was close to the finish line and that makes sense because deals can be passed without parliament there but I don’t know if the market has the patience for what’s shaping up.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Does not want China’s products unless they are fair
• Fairness with China includes IP
• I want China to do well, I want every country to do well
• Core GDP was up despite distortions

The question is how patient the market can be for some of these deals. I don’t believe anyone really knows what will happen when supply chains begin to break down because of empty cargo ships.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

From Reuters:

Saudi officials in recent weeks have briefed allies and industry exports, telling they the Kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.