Articles

• China is putting restrictions on very small amounts of rare earths
• Asked about the US restricting chips, says ‘everyone does that’
• China realized they over-stepped and started to qualify what they’d done
• The President is a deal-maker
• We’ve been successful in finding a path forward
• China’s reactions are completely disproportionate
• We had senior staff talks yesterday
• Calls it a ‘major escalation’
• November 1 tariffs depends on what China does
• We’re trying to have a good relationship with the Chinese
• We want to make sure markets are responding to ‘appropriate information’

It sounds like they’re leaning on China to back down but it’s not clear what China would want in return.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Hu XiJin, who is now mostly-retired, was once Beijing’s mouthpiece in the Trump 1.0 trade war. Today he’s highlighting a post that he said has gone viral on Chinese social media.

He wrote:

A netizen has summed up what he calls Washington’s “one-way rules,” a post that has gone viral on Chinese social media. I’ve translated it here to see whether American readers would agree.

Rule 1: What I need — such as rare earths — you must ensure the supply of. What I have in surplus — like soybeans — you must keep your markets open for.

Rule 2: What you need — like advanced chips — I will ban entirely. What you’re good at — such as electric vehicles — I will reject outright.

Rule 3: All trade must be settled in my currency. But once you profit from it, I’ll accuse you of “economic aggression.”

Rule 4: When I refuse to trade with you and you turn to others, I’ll charge you with “coercing countries into dependence.” When you expand cooperation, I’ll say you’re “setting debt traps to exploit partners.”
In short, it’s a game built on one principle — the winner never breaks the rules.

Buying from you means securing supply;

Selling to you means market access.

Blocking you is technology protection;

Shutting you out is fair competition.

Using my dollar is the natural order;

Earning my dollar is economic aggression.

Becoming self-reliant means coercing partners;

Pursuing win-win cooperation means debt traps.

— In short, the right to define the rules is always mine.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Global 2025: 3.2% vs 3.0%

• Global 2026: 3.1% vs 3.1%

• U.S. 2025: 2.0% vs 1.9%

• U.S. 2026: 2.1% vs 2.0%

• IMF says U.S. outlook aided by lower-than-forecast effective tariff rates, tax bill, fiscal boost, easier financial conditions

• China 2025: 4.8% vs 4.8%

• China 2026: 4.2% vs 4.2%

• Eurozone 2025: 1.2% vs 1.0%

• Eurozone 2026: 1.1% vs 1.2%

• Japan 2025: 1.1% vs 0.7%

• Japan 2026: 0.6% vs 0.5%

• IMF says BOJ likely to raise interest rates gradually over medium term toward neutral level of 1.5%

• Canada 2025 1.2% vs 1.6%

• Canada 2026 1.5% vs 1.9%

• India 2025/26: 6.6% vs 6.4%

• Argentina 2025: 4.5% vs 5.5%

• Argentina 2026: 4.0% vs 4.5%

• Mexico 2025: 1.0% vs 0.2%

• Mexico 2026: 1.5% vs 1.4%

• Brazil 2025: 2.4% vs 2.3%

• Brazil 2026: 1.9% vs 2.1%

• Latin America & Caribbean 2025: 2.4% vs 2.2%

• Latin America & Caribbean 2026: 2.3% vs 2.4%

• Global headline inflation 2025: 4.2% (from 5.8% in 2024)

• Global headline inflation 2026: 3.7% (from 4.2% in 2025)

IMF chief economist Gourinchas said the latest U.S.-China trade tensions represent a downside risk, won’t yet alter baseline forecasts. She noted that a material escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions could have big negative impact on global growth

Overall, these numbers highlight the improving view on the trade war as the impacts haven’t been as harsh as feared a few months ago.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US Ambassador To NATO just said to expect a ‘big’ Ukraine weapons announcements tomorrow. I don’t think it’s a mystery as to what it will be as Trump yesterday said he may send them to Ukraine.

Zelensky said he will meet Trump in Washington on Friday for talks that will focus on air defence and long-range capabilities.

Russia has said that long-range weapons would be a major escalation and it’s notable the Ukraine has been attacking Russian energy infrastructure, so this could be a bullish catalyst for oil prices.

Tomahawk missiles travel at Mach 0.7 and have a practical range of 1600 km with a 1000 lb warhead.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -0.1% (revised to -1.1%)
• Permits down 5.9% y/y
• Residential -2.4% m/m

The Canadian construction pipeline is going to slow dramatically in the year ahead as the Toronto condo boom turns into a bust. Prime Minister Mark Carney will release his first budget on November 4 and one of the main aims will be to spur nation-building projects, something the government hopes will counter slowing private sector construction.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• EU and US look to partner up to take on China’s rare earth clampdown
• US September NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 100.6 expected
• Germany October ZEW survey current conditions -80.0 vs -74.8 expected
• China reportedly toughens process for firms to obtain rare earth magnet export licenses
• China’s Commerce Ministry: China hopes to resolve concerns through dialogue
• Germany September final CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.8% vs 4.7% expected
• FX option expiries for 14 October 10am New York cut

Today’s session was mainly driven by the risk-off sentiment that started around 4:00 am GMT after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that it took countermeasures against five US-linked firms. The Chinese did say that they are hoping to resolve concerns through dialogue but they are not afraid of “fighting to the end” if US wants a trade war. In the markets we’ve seen classic risk-off moves with equities, oil, yields, crypto, copper and so on dropping throughout the session.

The markets remain cautious considering that back in April it was the US that eventually had to back down. If that means that we need to wait for Trump to fold first and swallow his pride, then I’m afraid things could get worse before they get better.

The other highlight of the session was the UK employment report. The data was once again soft with the unemployment rate ticking higher and the employment numbers disappointing forecasts. Moreover, average weekly earnings increased with wage growth remaining elevated and likely limiting BoE’s response. Nonetheless, the markets increased BoE rate cut bets with two cuts now fully priced in by the end of 2026. The pound weakened across the board as a result.

In the American session, the only highlight is Fed Chair Powell’s speech although he’s unlikely to change his stance given that we haven’t got anything new in terms of economic data due to the US government shutdown.

The focus remains solely on US-China headlines as this renewed trade war could have serious economic impacts.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 15/10/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior 100.8

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined
2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three
months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The
Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest
reading in over 51 years.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most
owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having
to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and
ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small
business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how
policy changes will impact their operations”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

European trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, said that G7 finance ministers are arranging for a video call “pretty soon” to discuss the matter with it being a “critical concern”. Sefcovic also mentioned that he will discuss the issue with US commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, and will speak to his Chinese counterpart as early as next week.

Meanwhile, Danish foreign minister Lars Rasmussen said that they could possibly look to team up with the US to turn the tables on China:

“We also need to be realistic. This is actually an area of common interest with our friends in the U.S. If we stick together we can much better pressure China to act in a fair way.”

Well, the clock is ticking. But in the meantime, China will have no issues in returning to the more stringent process of allowing for rare earth exports as they had done back in April.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior -76.4
• Economic sentiment 39.3 vs 41.0 expected
• Prior 37.3

The readings are softer than estimated with the headline reaffirming that the present situation in Germany remains on the rocks. The good news at least is that investor morale is seen rising but ZEW notes that it is mostly just hopeful optimism in eyeing an upturn in the medium-term.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As gold continues to hold at fresh record highs amid the sudden shifts in broader market sentiment, one can reasonably expect a lot more volatility spikes on profit-taking and dip buying among other things. And that’s what we’re seeing today. In early European trading, we saw gold fall off from a high of $4,179 to $4,090 in just a little over an hour. That before rising back up now to be up 0.6% on the day at $4,139:

Meanwhile, silver has also bounced back modestly and is down just 0.7% on the day to $51.95. That after falling to a low of $50.93 with the high having touched $53.62 earlier in the day.

At some point, a much more significant correction will beckon for both gold and silver. But for now at least, dip buyers are still showing that they have some appetite left in them.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US Stocks Recover as Trade Tensions Ease – Nasdaq up 2.2%

US stock indices recovered in trading yesterday as trade tensions eased after both the US and China indicated that trade negotiations will remain ongoing. The Dow jumped 1.29% to 46,067, the S&P added 1.56% to 6,655, and the Nasdaq leapt 2.21% to 22,694. Bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but yields are expected to bounce tomorrow. The dollar did bounce back to recover some of its losses from Friday, the DXY up 0.30% to 99.28 by the close. Oil prices also recovered some, but by no means all, of Friday’s lost ground, with Brent up 1.20% to $63.48 and WTI up 1.26% to $59.64 a barrel. Gold was once again a standout mover as it powered through $4,100 to close at yet another record high, up 2.29% to $4,110.27 an ounce.

Gold Bulls Back in Charge Again

Gold resumed its relentless move higher yesterday as it powered over 2% further north to smash through its latest big-figure barrier like a hot knife through butter. The last couple of days of last week had seen some more ‘normal’ trading for gold as first a big risk-on move had seen it sink hard before trade tensions escalated into the weekend and it rallied again in line with other market moves. However, yesterday the relentless buying that has been a feature of the last six weeks since it broke its previous record level recommenced, and it far outstripped moves in other financial products. Gold has now gained over 56% this year, and various theories are still being bandied across markets as to the reason behind the move. They seem to be changing on a daily basis, but traders cannot ignore the trend, and most are still looking to jump on the back of it, with any dip still well supported.

Central Banks in Focus on the Calendar Today

Geopolitics looks set to continue to dominate market sentiment into today’s trading sessions; however, the economic calendar does have a distinctly central-bank feel to it, with several updates due out across the day. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Australian markets, with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out early in the day, before focus moves north as Japanese markets reopen after a long weekend. There is some key data due out of the UK early in the London session, with employment numbers scheduled for release. The Claimant Count is expected to increase by 10k m/m, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.7%. Later in the day, during the New York session, the focus moves to Washington, D.C., where the great and good of the central banking world are gathering for a couple of days. The highlights today will be updates from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

The post General Market Analysis – 14/10/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.