Articles

• US major indices claw back some of the declines
• Goldman Sachs warns U.S. shutdown could be one of the longest in history
• Crude oil futures settle at $59.49
• More Paulson: Sees labor supply and demand for workers declining at about the same pace
• Fed Paulson: Favors gradual path of rate cuts over this year into next
• Ukraine’s Zelensky to meet Trump in Washington on Friday
• Major European indices close higher led the German DAX
• Trump: Would love to take off Iran sanctions, if they talk
• Gold tops $4100 for the first time.
• Silver trades to a new record high
• Israeli defense minister Katz: Any delay in releasing bodies will be a gross violation
• Can peace beget peace and the trend for it continue?
• While the US will continue to be void of data, Fedspeak and earnings will be the focus
• Peace. Hostages are released. The USD is mixed. Stocks are higher
• US Bessent: 100% tariffs doesn’t have to happen
• More from US Bessent: Trump’s Friday social media post turned the tables
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies alongside risk mood, gold jumps

US stocks closed higher – erasing some of the declines but not all. The gains can be attributed to less confrontational remarks from Trump to China over the weekend, Trump said the U.S. wants to “help China, not hurt it,” adding that tariffs “don’t have to happen,” while Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed that the U.S. remains open to talks. Maybe. Maybe not.

China’s export numbers today showed that they can export to other nations other than the US (or is that circumventing the tariffs through tariff arbitrage?). Let’s say China is still a wild card but the market’s fear was allayed today. PS the hostage release and hopes for lasting peace were also a feel good story that helped give equity markets a boost.

Nevertheless, tomorrow will be a key day for the stock market as the Nasdaq is closing the day, near the 100 hour MA at 22695 (closed at 22694).

The USD rose vs most of the currencies today.

EURUSD: The EURUSD saw the pair move briefly above the 100 hour MA in early trading, only to fall to swing area between 1.1548 to 1.15612 and find willing buyers. The price bias is to the downside with the 100 hour MA at 1.1602 the key resistance target and bias defining level.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD also stayed below its 100 hour MA (currently at 1.3355) but is closing within a swing area between 1.3323 and 1.3341. Moving below the lower extreme and staying below will be more bearish. Moving above and also above the 100 hour MA at 1.3353 would be more bullish.

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose today and tested its higher 100 hour MA at 152.457. The price is trading at 152.19 currently. Staying below keeps the seller in play but there is more work to do to the downside if the sellers are to take more control.

Fed’s Anna Paulson also spoke for the first time since becoming Philadelphia Fed President, striking a dovish but balanced tone—emphasizing that policy should prioritize full employment and price stability, with gradual rate cuts expected through this year and into next.

The price of gold and silver both moved to new highs The US debt market was closed due to the Columbus Day holiday.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The September NAB Business Survey will be in focus today week as analysts gauge whether the recent improvement in private-sector activity has continued into the final month of Q3. Both business confidence (August was +7) and business conditions (+4) remain close to their long-term averages, pointing to a steady—if unspectacular—backdrop for corporate activity.

Economists say the finer details of the report will matter just as much as the headline readings. The price and cost components will attract particular scrutiny after Australia’s latest inflation data came in hotter than expected. Any renewed upward movement in labour costs or purchase prices could signal that underlying price pressures are persisting, complicating the Reserve Bank of Australia’s path toward further easing. Conversely, softer cost trends would support expectations that inflation is cooling and that the RBA could maintain its easing bias heading into 2026.

The data is due at 0030 GMT / 2030 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs expects the ongoing U.S. government shutdown could become one of the most extensive and longest in history, warning that the economic hit will grow the longer it lasts.

In a research note, Goldman economist Phillips said the situation

• seems like it has a decent chance of going on for a while
• possibly extending for weeks
• and affecting all government agencies
• based on the way things feel right now, it could actually be one of the biggest shutdowns we’ve had

Phillips estimates that each week of closure will subtract roughly 0.11 percentage points from annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter, though output would likely rebound once the government reopens. However, he cautioned that a shutdown lasting beyond a few weeks could cause wider disruptions — delaying federal contracts, infrastructure projects, and new listings, as the Securities and Exchange Commission slows operations.

Despite those risks, markets have taken the standoff in stride. Goldman believes that’s partly because investors expect a political resolution and partly because the Federal Reserve remains in an easing cycle:

• Without new data, the Fed is still likely to cut again, the bank said

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Goldman’s warning underscores growing downside risks to U.S. growth if the government shutdown lingers. The note suggests GDP could take a hit each week the impasse continues, though markets appear unfazed — betting that the Fed will stay on track with further rate cuts even as economic data flow pauses.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The minutes due from the RBA are from the end-September meeting.

The Bank left its cash rate unchanged at that meeting, characterised as a ‘hawkish’ hold:

• RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 3.60% as expected in Sept monetary policy decision

More from the day:

• RBA governor Bullock: The board sees the risks as broadly balanced
• RBA governor Bullock: Will not say if market pricing is right or wrong

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.49. That’s up $0.59 on the day. The high price for the day reached $60.17. The low was at $59.

The price is moving away from the swing area from August to mid September which bottomed the pair between $61.45 and $61.94. Staying below that area keeps the sellers more in control. The low price for 2025 was reached at $55.15 back on April 8th, and would be the target for sellers on further downside momentum.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine’s Zelensky will meet with Trump in Washington on Friday. A discussion would be Zelensky’s vision on Tomahawk missiles needed in its war with Russia.

• Plans to meet with US energy and arms companies during the Washington.
• Urges allies to move faster using Russian frozen assets for Ukraine.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres Trump is in Egypt now and is speaking initially on Iran. He says:

• Egypt played a very important role in deal. Calls Egypt Sisi a powerful leader
• Iran will come along
• Iran needs help
• I really wants to make a deal
• Would love to take off Iran sanctions if they talk

On Israel/Hamas:

• Phase 2 talks on Gaza have started

Trump – the Deal Maker – is on stage overseas which is where he gets the most energized.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Israeli defense minister Katz is on X saying:

That did not take long.

Do you want peace? Can it happen?

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The ceasefire and hostage release between Isreal and Hamas is a huge step in the peace direction

So what was agreed and implemented?

• As part of the agreement, Hamas will release the remaining living Israeli hostages. Check.

• In return, Israel will free a number of Palestinian prisoners and detainees (including 250 prisoners with life sentences and 1,700 held without charge) as part of the exchange. Check.

• Israel has ratified the ceasefire deal, and troops are to withdraw to an agreed line while hostages are released within a 72-hour timeframe. Check

• Humanitarian aid to Gaza will increase, with hundreds of aid trucks expected daily. Check

What is still unresolved?

• Disarmament of Hamas: The deal’s full enforcement requires Hamas to be disarmed, but that component is not clearly spelled out yet in the phases that have been agreed.

• Long-term governance of Gaza: How Gaza will be governed after the deal remains unresolved (e.g. whether a technocratic body or international security oversight will be installed) is still part of ongoing negotiations.

• Whether the ceasefire will hold: Historical precedent in this conflict shows that ceasefires are fragile. Some analysts warn that this “first phase” deal may not be a lasting peace, but rather a pause or step toward broader agreement.

• Full implementation timetable and verification: Key details—like exactly when all terms go into effect, mechanisms for verification, and what happens if one side violates the deal—are still being worked out in negotiations.

Overall — the Israel-Hamas deal is “real” in the sense that both sides have officially agreed to a first phase ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange.

But there will be some details to be ironed out which could cause obstacles. Many of the most difficult issues (security guarantees, disarmament, governance, long-term stability) remain open to negotiation and subject to adherence by both sides.

Nevertheless, it is human nature to grow comfortable with the status quo — even when that status quo includes war, conflict, and scarcity. Over time, people can lose sight of what a better reality might look like. Peace, however, stands in complete contrast to war, and bridging that divide is no small task for either Israel or Hamas. Still, perhaps this first taste of peace will awaken a deeper desire — a recognition that there can, and should, be more of it.

Similarly, on a broader scale, conflict often breeds more conflict — it becomes a mindset, almost a reflexive, Pavlovian response. In the U.S., for instance, political divisions have hardened to the point where if one party proposes an idea, the other instinctively rejects it. Votes often split cleanly along party lines — 100% one way, 100% the other. What was once a process of debate and compromise has turned into a competitive game of party versus party. Meanwhile, it’s the public that bears the cost of this gridlock, as opportunities for cooperation and progress are lost to partisanship.

Internationally, Russia, China, US remain at war. Bombs are not flying but Trump said that the US may supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles at the expense of escalation, but does it need that for peace?

I hope not. I hope there is solutions to problems. I hope that peace begets peace, and the trend of conflict/war begets conflict/war is stopped.

It is a hope, but hope can lead to great things….

• “Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all of the darkness.” — Desmond Tutu
• “Once you choose hope, anything’s possible.” — Christopher Reeve
• “Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the presence of creative alternatives for responding to conflict—alternatives to passive or aggressive responses, alternatives to violence.” — Dorothy Thompson (1893 – 1961) was an American journalist, radio broadcaster, and political commentator — one of the most influential women of her time.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

While the US economic data will be confined to regional surveys like the Empire Manufacturing index on Wednesday, the Philly Fed Manufacturing index on Thursday, and the NAHB Housing market index on Thursday, there are a slew of Fed speaking engagements scheduled, which will try to fill in the gap from no economic data, with anecdotal commentary on the economy:

Monday, October 13

• 12:55 pm — FOMC Member Paulson Speaks

Tuesday, October 14

• 8:45 am — FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

• 12:20 pm — Fed Chair Powell Speaks

• 3:25 pm — FOMC Member Waller Speaks

• 3:30 pm — FOMC Member Collins Speaks

Wednesday, October 15

• 9:30 am — FOMC Member Miran Speaks

• 12:30 pm — FOMC Member Miran Speaks

• 1:00 pm — FOMC Member Waller Speaks

• 2:00 pm — Beige Book (report release)

• 2:30 pm — FOMC Member Schmid Speaks

Thursday, October 16

• 9:00 am — FOMC Member Waller Speaks

• (time not specified) — FOMC Member Barr Speaks

• (time not specified) — FOMC Member Miran Speaks

• 10:00 am — FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

• 4:15 pm — FOMC Member Miran Speaks

Friday, October 17

• 12:15 pm — FOMC Member Musalem Speaks

In addition, US earnings season will kick off this week with the slew of bank and financial company earnings leading the charge (as usual). In addition to the likes of J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Wells Fargo and American Express, Johnson & Johnson Ericsson, United Airlines, Taiwan semiconductor, and Travelers will also release giving a broader view of earnings for the quarter.

Below, is a list of the major companies releasing:

Tuesday
Before Open:

• BlackRock (BLK)

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

• Goldman Sachs (GS)

• Citi (C)

• Wells Fargo (WFC)

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

• Ericsson (ERIC)

• Albertsons (ACI)

Wednesday
Before Open:

• ASML Holding (ASML)

• Progressive (PGR)

• Dollar Tree (DLTR)

• Bank of America (BAC)

• Morgan Stanley (MS)

• Prologis (PLD)

After Close:

• United Airlines (UAL)

• J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Thursday
Before Open:

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC)

• BNY Mellon (BK)

• Charles Schwab (SCHW)

• Travelers (TRV)

• M&T Bank (MTB)

After Close:

• Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

• CSX Corp (CSX)

Friday
Before Open:

• American Express (AXP)

• Comerica (CMA)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• US-China relationship is good
• US going to reject licensing requirements
• We are taking sound measures to right this problem
• US has more cards

Things were going great until Bessent started to talk today. He keeps all options on the table but it’s hard to envision the US going through with the tariffs. De-escalation should remain the base base for markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Trump’s Friday social media post turned the tables; China made a miscalculation
• Idea is to give Trump and Xi time to meet

On government shutdown:

• This is getting serious
• It’s starting to affect the economy

Bessent’s comments this morning turned the sentiment around a bit as he kind of dampened the hype.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.