Articles

EU’s von der Leyen says she had a call with Trump, discussed trade.

Von der Leyen said the EU needs time until July 9 to reach a good deal.

Trump had a tariff tantrum over the EU on Friday:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 May: Pres. Trump is not partial to who he tariffs

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week.

Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, a little strength for the USD and JPY

• EUR/USD 1.1361
• USD/JPY 142.45, yen a few tics to the better to open the week after its strong Friday
• GBP/USD 1.3520
• USD/CHF 0.8203, a bid for CHF also
• USD/CAD 1.3715
• AUD/USD 0.6489
• NZD/USD 0.5982

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was a quieter trading week for investors last week, that despite some volatile moments, had most financial markets trading in familiar ranges as both data and geopolitical updates remained relatively settled.
However, the week ahead looks like it could be a bit busier for traders, with a good mix of tier 1 data releases scheduled, alongside central bank updates and some bank holidays across major centres to throw thinner liquidity into the mix on a couple of days as well.
Traders will continue to monitor newswires closely for updates on trade; however, the event calendar this week also looks capable of pushing markets into fresh ranges as well.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

There is little in the way of data releases scheduled across the sessions on Monday; however, some central banker updates – including Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking just before the Asian open – as well as bank holidays in the UK and US, could see a lively start to the trading week.

Once again, no major tier 1 data releases are scheduled on Tuesday, but we do hear from several central bankers over the course of the day, including German Buba President Joachim Nagel and Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel in the US session. We also have the first US data of the week in the form of Durable Goods numbers and the CB Consumer Confidence data.

The Asian session has a strong antipodean leaning on Wednesday, with key Australian CPI data due out early in the day, swiftly followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision and press conference. There is little of note on the calendar in the European session; however, the New York day sees the release of the Richmond Manufacturing Index data before the FOMC Meeting Minutes towards the end of the session.

There is little on the calendar in the Asian session on Thursday, and liquidity could be an issue in the London session today, with Switzerland, France, and Germany all having bank holidays. Traders will be focusing on data today in New York, with US Prelim GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and Pending Home Sales numbers all due out. We are also set to hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, Kugler, and Daly, as well as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Friday looks to be the busiest day on the macroeconomic calendar this week, with data due across all three trading sessions. The early focus in Asia will be on Japanese markets, as the key Tokyo CPI data is due out before we have Retail Sales numbers out of Australia. There is CPI data due out in Europe, with Germany, Spain, and Italy all due to update markets on their latest inflation numbers. The New York session sees the latest Core PCE Price Index data released early in the day, alongside the Canadian GDP numbers, before the week is closed out with the Revised University of Michigan data releases and speeches from the Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 26 May 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

I’m thrilled to be headed to Cape Town, South Africa next week for the Finance Magnates Africa Summit. If you’re in the area, I’d love to see you there.

It’s a great conference for both people working in the industry and traders. I’ll be on panels on gold/oil plus one where I will shares some trading stories with some really interesting people. Register here (it’s free for traders).

The event runs from May 29-30 and there has been a huge turnout the past couple of years when it was in Johannesburg. I’ve heard great things about Cape Town and I’m looking forward to checking it out.

I’ll also be in New York June 1-2.

The best place to get in touch with me is in the comments here on LinkedIn.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 26/5/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Trump appears to approve the Nippon takeover of US Steel — with a healthy dose of spin
• Crude oil settles up $0.33 at $61.53
• Trump: I’m not looking for a deal with EU, it’s set at 50%
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -8 to 465
• More Bessent: Sovereign Wealth Fund is on pause
• Fed’s Cook: Seeing some signs of stress among low-moderate income households
• Bessent ultimately sees ‘several hundred billion’ per year in tariff revenue
• Fed’s Musalem: GDP is close to potential
• Bank of Canada rate cut odds fall further after retail sales data
• US April new home sales 743K vs 693K expected
• Fed’s Musalem: Do not want short-term inflation expectations to bleed into longer term
• Bessent: Trump move is in response to EU’s pace on tariffs
• When do you buy the tariff dip in US stocks? When Trump tells you
• Fed’s Goosbee: Businesses want some consistency in policy
• Canada March retail sales +0.8% vs +0.7% expected
• Welcome to Trade War 2.0
• Trump recommends a 50% tariff on EU starting on June 1
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: Hot UK retail sales, weak USD, Trump threatens Apple
• Trump threatens tariffs on Apple if products not made in US
• ECB’s Lane: Confident services inflation will come down

The trading day began on a sour note—or a strong one, depending on your stance on tariffs—after former President Trump announced via social media that he would impose a 25% tariff on Apple products not manufactured in the U.S. The market responded swiftly: Apple shares declined for a seventh straight session, falling from a peak of $213.94 on May 14 to $195.27 today, a drop of -8.73%.

Trump didn’t stop there. In a follow-up post, he proposed a flat 50% tariff on the European Union, set to begin June 1. Later in the day, he reaffirmed his position, stating, “I’m not looking for a deal with the EU. It’s set at 50%.” The message is clear—Trump remains steadfast on tariffs, whether targeting foreign nations or U.S.-based companies.

If the EU retaliates, additional escalation could be on the horizon. This mirrors the pattern seen with China, where tariffs peaked at 145% before being temporarily reduced to 30% as of May 12, under a 90-day negotiation window. That clock is now ticking.

Markets opened lower on the news. Although equities recovered somewhat intraday, they faded back toward the middle of the day’s range by the close.

📉 Closing Numbers – May 23, 2025

• Dow Jones: -256.02 pts (-0.61%) at 41,603.07

• S&P 500: -39.29 pts (-0.67%) at 5,802.82

• Nasdaq Composite: -188.53 pts (-1.00%) at 18,737.21

📉 Weekly Performance

• Dow: -2.47%

• S&P 500: -2.61%

• Nasdaq: -2.47%

US yield started the day lower and although ending the day lower, the US session saw some debt selling (yields moved higher). The final values near the end of week sees:”

• 2 year yield 3.993%, -0.6 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.077%, -2.5 basis points
• 10-year yield 4.509%, -4.4 basis points
• 30-year yield 5.031%, -3.3 basis points.

For the trading week, the yield curve is steep and with a

• 2-year yield unchanged
• 10 year yield is up 6.4 basis points

The 30 year yield rose sharply by 12.7 basis points (on it’s way back above 5.0%.

That policymakers speaking today gave a cautionary tone:

• Chicago Fed Pres. Austan Goolsbee, speaking on CNBC, emphasized that businesses are seeking consistency in policy amidst the uncertainty created by rapidly changing tariffs—particularly pointing to the proposed 50% EU tariff as a disruptive and alarming development for supply chains. He noted growing anxiety among firms about inflationary pressures stemming from ongoing tariff announcements and warned that such moves could have stagflationary consequences—the worst-case scenario for a central bank. Goolsbee stressed the importance of waiting for clearer data before acting, acknowledging that the effects of current policies may already be in motion but not yet visible in economic reports. While he still believes the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong, he indicated that his previous forecast for rate cuts by year-end may now be delayed by up to 16 months due to heightened uncertainty.
• St. Louis Fed Pres.Musalem warned that the Fed is closely monitoring signs that short-term inflation expectations could seep into long-term outlooks, a dynamic they are keen to avoid. He noted that businesses are already expecting higher input and output prices and are struggling to manage growing uncertainty. While GDP is currently close to its potential, inflation remains above target. Musalem also emphasized that the current environment is markedly different from the pandemic era, adding that the probability of a near-term Fed rate cut is low—estimated at just one in five.
• Finally, Kansas City Federal Reserve Pres. Jeffrey Schmid emphasized that current uncertainty is largely being driven by ongoing tariff discussions. He stated that the Fed will place greater weight on hard data rather than forecasts when making interest rate decisions, cautioning against overreliance on soft data. Schmid also highlighted the need for the Fed to carefully consider its future use of the balance sheet. He acknowledged that markets have already priced in 83 basis points of rate cuts over the coming year.

The Fed – like businesses – are struggling with the uncertainty from the Trump administration and their policy actions.

The US dollar would lower versus all the major currency pairs with the biggest mover being against the NZD /1.44%) and the AUDUSD (-1.31%).

The greenback also fell close to 1% versus the JPY (-1.0%), CHF (-0.93%), and the CAD (-0.93%).

For the trading week, the dollar was weaker vs all the major currencies as well::

• EUR: -1.81%
• JPY, -2.13%
• GBP, -1.99%
• CHF -1.93%
• CAD -1.69%
• AUD, -1.47%
• NZD, -1.82%

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil fell modestly this week by -0.29%
• Gold rose by 4.82% with its largest weekly gain since April 7
• Bitcoin rose from $106,520 to $108,234

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes on the day:

• S&P 500 -0.7%
• Nasdaq Comp -1.0%
• DJIA -0.6%
• Russell 2000 -0.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.1%

On the week:

• S&P 500 -2.6%
• Nasdaq -2.5%
• DJIA -2.5%
• TSX -0.4%
• Russell -3.5%

For a week that began with a US debt downgrade and ended with a fresh trade war with the EU, a 2.6% decline is a surprisingly good result. US equities opened much lower on Friday but steadily recovered until some last-minute selling.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It doesn’t sound like the US and EU make a quick deal on trade that will drop the 50% tariffs that Trump recommended today and to go into effect on June 1.

• The US is fully engaged and committed to securing a deal that works for both
• EU commission remains ready to work in good faith
• EU-US trade is unmatched and must be guided by mutual respect

It’s tough to tell which way this is going to go but at least Sefcovic didn’t go full-China style and announce immediate retaliatory tariffs — though there’s an argument that’s the optimal strategy.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US President Trump appears to have green-lighted the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel.

It’s a deal that he opposed on the campaign trail and was killed by President Biden after the election. However Nippon and US Steel sued to keep the deal alive and more-recently sweetened the pot.

The rejection of the deal was a low point for American capitalism and went against the idea that foreign companies should invest in the United States if they wanted to avoid tariffs.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that was a ‘planned partnership’ and that sparked some confusion but it looks like this is just spin as the $14 billion investment is exactly what Nippon dangled to close the deal.

Shares jumped 23% and are close to the deal price of $55/share. If approved the deal could close as soon as this weekend as both Nippon and US Steel have been ready to close for months.

Trump wrote:

I am proud to announce that, after much consideration and negotiation,
US Steel will REMAIN in America, and keep its Headquarters in the Great
City of Pittsburgh. For many years, the name, “United States Steel” was
synonymous with Greatness, and now, it will be again. This will be a
planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which
will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the
U.S. Economy. The bulk of that Investment will occur in the next 14
months. This is the largest Investment in the History of the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. My Tariff Policies will ensure that Steel
will once again be, forever, MADE IN AMERICA. From Pennsylvania to
Arkansas, and from Minnesota to Indiana, AMERICAN MADE is BACK. I will
see you all at US Steel, in Pittsburgh, on Friday, May 30th, for a BIG
Rally. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL!

Despite how this whole sad saga unfolded, it ultimately ends up in the good place for the US as Nippon will modernize a portion of the US steel industry and force it into a more-competitive place.

The loser in this is Cleveland-Cliffs who lobbied hard to keep out foreign competition and investment. Shares of CLF are down 5.5%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil is settling the day up $0.33 on the day at $61.53. The high today reached $61.84. The low was at $60.06.

For the trading week, the price is closing down marginally by about – $0.34 or -0.54%. The high for the week was at $64.14. The low was at $60.06.

The decline this week was the first in 3 weeks as expectations of another OPEC+ production increase and concerns and uncertainty about growth given the tariffs environment weighs on price as well.

Technically, the price action this week was above and below the 100/200 hour MA (blue and green lines). Those MAs come in near $61.66 (converged). The price is closing below those MAs tilting the bias more to the downside at the end of the week. However, the MAs will be the barometer for buyers and sellers next week. Trade above is more bullish. Trade below is more bearish.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of America maintains a bullish USD/JPY outlook, projecting the pair to rise to 155 by end-2025, citing a mix of domestic political, fiscal, and trade-related risks in Japan. They expect JPY and JGBs to weaken over the summer as structural pressures mount.

Key Points:

• Japan-US Trade Talks Stalled:Lack of progress in bilateral trade negotiations reduces the appeal of Japanese assets, potentially delaying BoJ hikes and creating a twist-steepening in the JGB curve.

• Fiscal Concerns Grow:Calls for tax cuts from opposition parties and even some ruling coalition members threaten fiscal discipline. With PM Ishiba’s approval ratings under pressure, fiscal expansion may become unavoidable—bearish JPY and JGBs.

• Political Instability Risk:Upcoming Upper House elections could lead to leadership changes or a coalition shift, adding policy uncertainty and weakening investor confidence in Japan.

• BoJ Policy Outlook:BofA continues to expect no additional BoJ rate hike until April 2026, leaving Japan at the mercy of structural capital outflows and a widening policy divergence with the Fed.

Conclusion:

BofA sees JPY vulnerability building into the summer, driven by political risk, stalled reforms, and widening fiscal concerns. Their base case remains USD/JPY at 155 by year-end, assuming a Fed on hold and no near-term BoJ hikes. Investors should prepare for continued JPY and JGB weakness amid these domestic pressures.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Could talk about delays to EU tariffs if they start moving to the US
• Talks with EU are slow moving
• I’m not looking for a deal, it’s set at 50%
• Numerous other deals ready to be signed
• Would also tariff Samsung and others who make iPhones
• Cook said he would go to India but there would still be tariffs that way

This has slowed the rebound in stocks. Obviously, he is looking for a deal with the EU but this is how he talks. Then again, who knows with Trump.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.