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• Says whenever he speaks with Putin they are good conversations but don’t go anywhere
• Says it didn’t feel right to have a meeting with Putin, so he cancelled it

Oil prices rose 3.7% today in their best day since July as the sanctions likely leaked out ahead of time, and then rose further afterwards. WTI was last at $59.38.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Long meeting scheduled with China’s Xi in South Korea and thinks something will work out
• Says it did not feel right to have a meeting with Russia’s Putin, so he canceled it, and felt it was time for Russian sanctions.
• Hopes sanctions won’t be on for long with Russia.
• Whenever he speaks with Putin they are good conversations but they don’t go anywhere

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) is designating a number of Russia based Rosneft and Lukoil subsidiaries
• All entities owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by Rosneft and Lukoil are blocked even if not designated by OFAC.

It’s becoming increasingly evident that Vladimir Putin has a habit of overpromising and underdelivering—likely by design. Last week, Putin spoke with President Trump ahead of Trump’s scheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and appears to have successfully discouraged any consideration of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

The two leaders had also agreed in principle to meet in Budapest, pending preliminary discussions between their respective staffs. However, those preparatory talks failed to produce any meaningful progress, prompting President Trump to postpone the summit altogether.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Trump debunks WSJ article on USA approval of Ukraine use of long-range missiles
• US indices close lower as the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 continue to slump
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Substantial pickup in Russian sanctions expected
• WSJ: US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles
• Crude oil settles at $58.50. White House says crude oil is a great buy
• Gold adds on to the declines from yesterday
• ECB’s Kazaks: It may be the case that the next rate move could easily be a hike as a cut
• U.S. Treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.506%
• Trump considering plan to restrict exports to China containing US software
• UK to announce emergency measures to boost London housebuilding. GBPUSD rebounds.
• Crude oil inventory see a draw of -0.961 million versus a build of 1.205 million estimate
• US Energy Sec Wright: The SPR will be gradually filled up. Says it is a great time to buy
• USTR Greer: Trump/Xi meeting on schedule. Makes sense to talk but we will see.
• It is a mixed start for the USD to start the NA session. What key levels are in play now?
• investingLive European FX markets wrap: UK inflation cools, gold volatility continues
• ECB’s de Guindos: Current ECB interest rate level is adequate
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 17 October -0.3% vs -1.8% prior

U.S. stocks declined on Wednesday as geopolitical and trade tensions continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns over both the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalating U.S.–China trade war have started to wear down the investing public, leading to another risk-off session.

The U.S. administration is reportedly preparing to expand sanctions on Russia, with measures expected to be announced either later today or early Thursday. At the same time, President Trump has threatened new restrictions on exports to China involving U.S. software and other high-value technologies, along with tariffs of up to 155% on Chinese imports—effectively amounting to a trade embargo set to take effect November 1.

In parallel, Treasury Secretary Bessent is traveling to Malaysia for preliminary talks with Chinese officials, ahead of a planned meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in South Korea. Both sides appear to be intensifying economic pressure as they jockey for leverage ahead of the negotiations.

Stock Market Performance

U.S. equities finished broadly lower:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: −0.71%

• S&P 500: −0.53%

• NASDAQ Composite: −0.93%

• Russell 2000: −1.45%

European markets were mixed:

• Germany DAX: −0.74%

• France CAC 40: −0.63%

• Italy FTSE MIB: −1.03%

• UK FTSE 100: +0.93%

• Spain Ibex 35: +0.09%

Currency & Bond Markets

The U.S. dollar ended the day little changed versus the major currencies. The largest move came against the Canadian dollar, where the greenback slipped −0.25%. Other major pairs closed within ±0.09% of unchanged after a choppy session.

U.S. Treasury yields edged slightly lower:

• 2-year: 3.446% (−0.0 bps)

• 10-year: 3.953% (−1.0 bps)

• 30-year: 4.535% (−1.3 bps)

The U.S. Treasury’s $13 billion auction of 20-year bonds drew solid domestic demand, clearing with a negative tail of −1.2 bps—a sign of healthy investor appetite.

Commodities

Gold fell for the second straight day, briefly dipping near the $4,000 mark before recovering. The metal traded down $21 (−0.51%) at $4,102.15, after touching a low of $4,004.40.
Silver also weakened, slipping $0.16 (−0.31%) to $48.49, after rebounding from a low of $47.56.

In energy markets, EIA data showed a surprise drawdown of 0.961 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.205 million-barrel build. Supporting prices further, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright confirmed that the government will purchase oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and added that oil remains an attractive buy at current levels.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social says that the Wall Street Journal article on USA’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long-range missiles deep into Russia is fake news.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The WSJ is reporting that the US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western long-range missiles

• Specifically British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, for strikes inside Russia, an increase pressure on the Kremlin.

• Authority to approve cross-border strikes shifted from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the top U.S. general in Europe and NATO commander.

• The decision restores approval power to U.S. European Command, reversing the Pentagon’s prior centralized control.

• The change allows Ukraine to expand its cross-border attacks, such as the recent strike on a Russian plant in Bryansk producing explosives and rocket fuel.

• U.S. influence remains because Storm Shadows rely on American targeting data.

Last week Pres. Trump met with Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy on Friday. He denied the authorization to sell and use Tomahawk missiles. Trump met with Putin on Thursday where Putin lobbied for not providing the Tomahawk missiles. At the time, Trump and Putin agreed to try to meet in Budapest in 2 weeks time. Since then, the scheduled meeting has been postponed. Russia says they still hope to meet, but Trump says, he does not want to meet if there is no chance for results. Putin has a way to a his own deal making strategy and it tends to overpromise and then under deliver.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is saying:

• Substantial pickup in Russian sanctions expected.
• Those sections will be announced either today or tomorrow

On China:

• Any export control will be in coordination with G7 allies

The risk is that China gets planes from Europe if the US stops the sale of all aircraft (and other goods). That is how I would interpret the coordination comment.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• High-yield 4.506%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.518%
• Tail -1.2 basis points versus 6 month average of -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.73X versus 6 month average of 2.64X
• Directs 26.3% versus 6 month average of 20.4%
• Indirects 63.6% versus 6 month average of 66.5%
• Dealers 10% vs 6 month average of 13.1%.

Auction Grade: A

An off the run issue, yet the demand was strong. The tail -1.2 basis points was better than the -0.2 basis point average. THe Bid to cover was above the six-month average. The buyers were domestic buyers.IInternational buyers were a bit later than the six-month average, but the dealers were still saddled with only 10% which was well below the 13.1% average..

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The ration is instead rate plans to restrict globally produced exports to China made with or containing US software. This according to sources.. Other export controls under consideration by the US could curb export on a wide range of goods to China.

According to the source, the specific idea may not move forward as planned, but the administration is looking to put pressure on China in response to their restrictions on rare earth and its boycott of soybean and other agricultural purchases

Stocks initial move is to the downside.

The S&P index is down -46 points or -0.67%. The NASDAQ index is down -266 points or -1.16%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg is reporting that the UK government may announce emergency measures to boost London housebuilding as soon as Thursday, a headline that sparked a late-session spike higher in the GBPUSD as London and European traders wrapped up their day.

Earlier in the session, the pound had fallen sharply after UK inflation data came in weaker than expected, with headline CPI unchanged month-on-month (vs. +0.2% expected) and softer core readings across the board. The initial reaction saw GBPUSD break below a key swing area between 1.3323 and 1.3341, extending down to a session low of 1.3306 before stabilizing.

Since then, the pair has rebounded strongly, reclaiming the 1.3341 level and climbing toward a near-session high of 1.3373. That peak aligns precisely with the 200-hour moving average at 1.33734 (green line on the chart above), a critical short-term technical barrier. The current price is hovering around 1.3367 — roughly unchanged on the day — as traders weigh whether this bounce has more room to run.

From a technical perspective, buyers will need to push decisively above the 200-hour moving average (1.3373) to regain control and confirm a more constructive short-term bias. A sustained move above would likely open the door toward the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.34025 (blue line), which becomes the next key upside target.

Conversely, if the pair fails to hold gains and slips back below 1.3341, it would suggest that the bounce is losing momentum, leaving the pair vulnerable to renewed downside pressure back toward 1.3306 and potentially the prior lows.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Crude oil drawdown of -0.961 million versus 1.205 million build expected.
• Distillates drawdown of -1.479 million versus an estimated drawdown of -1.933 million.
• Gasoline drawdown -2.147 million versus an estimated drawdown -0.809 million.

Late yesterday the private data showed:

• Crude oil a drawdown of -3.0M.
• Distillates a drawdown -1.0 million.
• Gasoline a drawdown -0.2 million

The price of crude oil is trading up $1.28 at $58.52. The high price today reached $58.82. The low price was at $57.34. The low price from last week extended to $55.96 before bouncing higher.

The White House yesterday said that they would be purchasing 1 million barrels for the strategic petroleum reserve. That was confirmed today by the energy secretary Wright. Wright added that it is a “great time to buy oil”.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price is trading back above its 200 hour moving average at $58.32. There is a swing area target on the topside of $59.78 to $60.10. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 26 high comes in at $59.96 within that swing area target.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The weekly EIA crude oil inventory data will be released at the bottom of the hour. The expectations are for:

• Crude oil a build of 1.205 million
• Distillates a drawdown of -1.933 million.
• Gasoline a drawdown of -0.809 million.

Late yesterday the private data showed:

• Crude oil a drawdown of -3.0M.
• Distillates a drawdown -1.0 million.
• Gasoline a drawdown -0.2 million

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.