Articles

• Gold and silver surge as Fed uncertainty ignites safe-haven demand
• US Treas Sec Bessent: Federal investigation made a mess, and could be bad for markets
• EURUSD Technical Analysis: Key moving averages define the next breakout
• U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.173%
• U.S. Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10 year notes at the top of the hour
• Silver Technical Analysis Today: The Rocket May Be Fatigued Now
• Google hits $4 trillion in market cap on partnership deal to power Apple AI features
• Consumer defensive gains: Walmart and defense stocks lead the charge
• US stocks open lower on renewed attack against Fed independence

At a glance:

• US stocks closed at record highs despite Washington noise

• Tech and consumer staples led; Walmart jump boosted Nasdaq

• Financials lagged after Trump floated credit-card rate cap

• Dollar slipped on renewed Fed-independence concerns

• Gold hit fresh record highs

US equity markets shrugged off a fresh Washington shock on Monday, January 12, finishing with new record closes for the S&P 500 and Dow even as FX traders used the moment to pressure the dollar and rotate toward havens.

Equities: After opening softer on headlines around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. stocks found their footing and ground higher into the close. The Dow added 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.26%, with leadership coming from tech and consumer staples. Walmart jumped around 3% and helped lift the broader tape, with investors also eyeing the stock’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 (effective January 20), which could drive incremental passive inflows. The main pocket of weakness was financials, which lagged after President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit-card rates at 10%. Bank and consumer-finance names were hit hardest, and the sector finished as the key drag even as the major indices printed fresh highs.

FX: The U.S. dollar weakened in Asia and struggled mainly sideways in US trade as the DOJ action against Powell revived concerns over Fed independence and the longer-run policy outlook. The dollar index fell, with the euro up near $1.17 before dripping lower. One notable exception was USD/JPY, which stayed bid around 158.1, with the yen pressured by recent Japan wage data and a narrative that the Bank of Japan’s tightening path may be pushed out. As I update USD/JPY has dipped back under 158.00. Macro attention now swings quickly to Tuesday’s U.S. CPI, a key input into whether the market’s next-cut timing (increasingly centred on mid-year) shifts again.

Gold: In commodities, the session’s clearest “message trade” was in precious metals, where gold surged to fresh record highs above $4,600/oz as investors reached for classic havens amid political and geopolitical uncertainty.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump: Effective immediately, any country doing business with Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with United States of America

Just the headline at this stage, I’ll post more detail separately.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:

• Business confidence jumps to highest level since 2014

• Firms’ own activity stabilises as recovery takes shape

• Hiring and investment intentions turn decisively positive

• Manufacturing leads rebound; construction remains weakest

• Inflation pressures contained despite improving demand

Business confidence in New Zealand has jumped to its strongest level in more than a decade, according to the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, adding to evidence that the economy is emerging from a prolonged slowdown as lower interest rates begin to flow through.

The survey showed a net 39% of firms expect general economic conditions to improve in the coming months, up sharply from a net 17% in the September quarter. That marks the highest level of confidence since March 2014 and a decisive turnaround after an extended period of pessimism.

Firms’ own trading activity has also stabilised, with only a net 3% reporting a decline in activity in the December quarter. While the gap between confidence and realised activity persists, NZIER said the results suggest an economic recovery is starting to take shape.

Improved sentiment is translating into stronger intentions. A net 22% of firms plan to increase staff numbers in the next quarter, while investment plans for buildings and plant have turned positive after being negative in the September quarter. There are also early signs spare capacity is beginning to shrink, with a small increase in firms reporting difficulty finding skilled labour.

The lift in confidence was broad-based. Manufacturing is now the most optimistic sector, supported by stronger domestic and export demand. Retail and services sentiment also improved, although profitability remains under pressure. Construction continues to lag, with weak demand, declining profitability, and ongoing price cuts keeping cost pressures subdued.

Overall, cost and pricing indicators suggest inflation pressures remain contained. With demand improving but spare capacity still evident, NZIER expects no further OCR cuts, forecasting the policy rate to trough at 2.25% before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand begins tightening in the second half of 2026.

—

The NZ QSBO is a widely watched indicator of New Zealand’s economic health:

• it provides insight into the views of businesses on the current state of the economy and expectations for the future
• the survey has been running since 1961

Key indicators from the survey include:

• Business Confidence, measuring overall sentiment in the business community about the state of the economy. It can be an important leading indicator of economic activity, as positive business confidence can lead to increased investment and hiring, while negative confidence can have the opposite effect.
• Own Activity Outlook, which assesses firms’ expectations of their own trading activity in the next three months. It’s considered one of the more reliable indicators of future GDP growth.
• Employment and Investment Intentions indications are used to show whether businesses plan to increase or decrease investment in capital and hiring. This can be a good indicator of future employment and investment activity.
• Capacity Utilization measures how much of their potential output firms are currently producing. High capacity utilization can indicate strong demand and potential inflationary pressure.
• Cost and Price Indicators are used a gauge of inflation pressures. These measure firms’ expectations of changes in costs and prices, which can be an indicator of future inflation.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is just a data post, I’ll have the details in a separate post.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Axios is reporting that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent privately warned President Trump that the federal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell had “made a mess” and risked destabilizing financial markets. According to the report, Bessent did not challenge the need for a full investigation, but he made clear that the timing and political optics were dangerous—especially for markets that depend on the Federal Reserve’s independence and credibility.

Bessent’s concern, according to Axios, was rooted in expectations around leadership transition. The assumption had been that once President Trump named a new Fed chair, Powell would step aside in an orderly fashion. Instead, the investigation changed that dynamic. Rather than leaving quietly, Powell now appears more likely to dig in, creating a protracted and politically charged standoff that adds yet another layer of uncertainty for investors. That shift, Bessent reportedly warned, “made a mess” of what should have been a clean handoff.

On Sunday night, President Trump denied having any knowledge of a Justice Department investigation, telling reporters:

“I don’t know anything about it, but he’s certainly not very good at the Fed, and he’s not very good at building buildings.”

Powell, in response, struck a defiant but measured tone, saying:

“No one — certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve — is above the law, but this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure.”

Markets initially reacted with caution. Stocks dipped on the headline, as investors briefly priced in the risk that political pressure on the Fed could undermine monetary policy independence and complicate rate-setting at a critical time for the economy. However, that weakness was quickly bought.

By mid-session, the NASDAQ had rebounded sharply and was trading near record highs, up 122 points, or 0.51%, at 23,791.85. The index reached a session high of 23,800.52, putting it within striking distance of its all-time high at 23,958.47. Earlier in the day, the NASDAQ had fallen as low as 23,562.97, down 108 points, showing just how quickly sentiment flipped once dip buyers stepped in.

The S&P 500 also erased its early losses, climbing 16.50 points, or 0.24%, to 6,982.66. The index had traded as low as 6,934.07, down 32.21 points at its worst levels, before recovering alongside the tech-led rally. The S&P is on pace for a record close today.

The market’s message is clear: while political risk around the Fed remains a concern, investors are still willing to buy weakness as long as liquidity, earnings, and growth trends remain intact. For now, stocks are choosing to look past the noise — but if tension between the White House and the Fed remains, the story may not be over as investors worry about the political implications

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury auctions off $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of

• High yield 4.173% vs 4.169% last
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.181%
• Tail -0.7 basis points vs 6 month average of 0.1 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.51X
• Directs 24.5% vs 6 month average of 20.6%
• Indirects 69.6% vs 6 month average of 69.5%
• Dealer 5.9% vs 6 month average of 9.9%

AUCTION GRADE: B+

The $39B 10-year Treasury auction showed solid, stress-free demand, with the issue stopping 0.7 bp through the WI, signaling buyers were willing to accept a lower yield than the market was offering going into the sale. The 2.55 bid-to-cover was slightly above average, confirming broad participation, while direct bidders jumped to 24.5%, highlighting strong domestic real-money demand from pensions and asset managers. Foreign demand was steady, and dealers were left with only 5.9% of the issue, meaning the market absorbed the supply cleanly without forcing the Street to warehouse bonds. Together, it pointed to a healthy, well-supported auction and helps explain why yields struggled to move higher afterward

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction $39 billion of 10 year note of the top of the hour. The six-month average as of the major components will be compared to the actual results to determine relative strength or weakness of the auction. The 6 month averages shows:

• Tail 0.1 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.51X
• Directs 20.6%
• Indirects 69.5%
• Dealers 9.9%.

Current treasury yields are little changed:

• 2-year yield 3.540%, +0.1 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.057%, unchanged
• 10 year yield 4.177%, +0.6 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.86%, +0.7 basis points.

Understanding US Treasury auction components

• WI (When-Issued) level – The yield (or price) where the new Treasury security trades in the market before the auction; it reflects real-time investor demand and expectations, and auctions that clear through the WI (lower yield, higher price) signal strong demand, while those that clear above the WI indicate weaker demand.

• Tail – The difference between the auction’s high yield and the WI yield at the bidding deadline; a positive tail (auction yield higher than WI) shows buyers demanded a discount, signaling soft demand, while a stop-through (negative tail) reflects aggressive buying and strong demand.

• Bid-to-Cover ratio – Total bids received divided by the amount offered; a higher ratio means more demand relative to supply, while a lower ratio signals weaker investor appetite for that maturity.

• Direct bidders – Domestic investors (such as U.S. banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and asset managers) that submit bids directly to the Treasury; higher direct participation typically reflects strong real-money demand and longer-term investment interest.

• Indirect bidders – Foreign central banks, international institutions, and overseas investors bidding through primary dealers; high indirect participation is often read as strong global demand for U.S. Treasuries and support for the dollar-based reserve system.

• Dealers (primary dealers) – Banks required to bid at every auction and make markets in Treasuries; when dealer take-down is high, it means end-user demand was weaker and dealers had to absorb more supply, while low dealer take-down indicates strong investor demand from directs and indirects.

How traders use Treasury auction data in real time

• WI vs. auction result is the first reaction trigger – Traders compare the high yield to the WI level within seconds; a stop-through usually sends yields lower and bond prices higher, while a tail pushes yields up and the dollar higher as traders price in weaker demand.

• Tail size defines the strength of the signal – A 0–0.5 bp tail is noise, 1–2 bps is weak, and 3+ bps is a red flag that demand was meaningfully soft and supply was not absorbed easily.

• Bid-to-cover tells whether buyers showed up – A rising BTC versus recent auctions confirms improving demand, while a falling BTC warns that investors are stepping back, especially dangerous in longer-dated maturities.

• Indirect bidders show global appetite for U.S. debt – Strong indirect participation signals foreign central banks and global reserve managers are buying, which is bullish for Treasuries and supportive for risk assets; weak indirects often coincide with rising yields and a firmer dollar.

• Direct bidders reflect “real money” conviction – High direct take-down means pension funds, insurers, and asset managers are committing capital, which tends to stabilize yields after the auction.

• Dealers are the shock absorbers – When dealers are stuck with a large share, they typically hedge by selling futures or cash bonds, pushing yields higher after the auction; low dealer take-down means the market absorbed the supply cleanly.

• Traders watch maturity-specific patterns – Weak 2-year auctions hit Fed-rate expectations, weak 10s hit mortgage rates and equities, and weak 30s hit inflation and fiscal-risk pricing.

• The post-auction 5-minute window matters most – If yields can’t reverse after a weak auction, it confirms a real supply problem; if a bad print gets bought, it shows hidden demand was waiting.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Silver rallies to new all-time highs on renewed Fed independence worries
• Gold jumps to a new all-time high as the DOJ seeks a pretext to fire Fed Chair Powell
• Dollar stays on the backfoot amid unease over Fed independence
• The dollar isn’t the only major currency having a bad day
• European stocks pushed lower at the open, US futures a drag on threats to the Fed
• The market is telling Trump to stop interfering with Federal Reserve independence
• Fed rate cut calls get pushed back after the US jobs report on Friday
• Eurozone investor morale clocks in better than expected to kick start the new year

Markets:

• GBP leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.5%
• US 10-year yields up 3.2 bps to 4.203%
• Gold up 1.8% to $4,588.93
• WTI crude oil down 0.3% to $58.93
• Bitcoin up 0.1% to $90,708

The main headlines to start the week is Trump’s continued attack on Fed independence, as Powell is put under criminal investigation in a bid by the administration to try and bend the central bank to its will. Powell’s press conference was quite something and if you watched it without context, you might even think it was scripted and AI-generated. It was powerful and sends a clear message of the kind of unprecedented situation we’re seeing with the central bank.

In any case, markets are already casting their vote early and quickly. And the bottom line is, the dollar and US stocks do not like it.

The greenback suffered in European morning trade, though the larger moves came during Asia trading. EUR/USD stretched higher to close in on 1.1700 before sitting now around 1.1680, up 0.4% on the day. GBP/USD is also holding higher, up 0.5% to 1.3463 while USD/CHF is down 0.5% to 0.7975 currently.

The one major currency that failed to take advantage of the dollar’s plight is the Japanese yen. USD/JPY dipped a little to 157.60 but quickly climbed back up to near unchanged levels now at 157.88. That clearly shows the lack of appetite towards the yen as well even during a time when the dollar is struggling.

The big winner of all of this? Precious metals. Gold delivered another push to fresh all-time highs and briefly clipped $4,600 while silver jumped up over 5% to keep above $84 on the day. Up, up, and away. No stopping the metals train. 🔥

In the equities space, European indices followed US futures lower to open but investors managed to regain some composure after. The DAX is now trading higher again but there are still some light declines seen in the CAC 40 and IBEX. As for US futures though, the mood music is more pessimistic with S&P 500 futures keeping down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.7%.

Now, it’s about how Wall Street will take to the news in anticipation of some other key developments coming up later this week. We have the US CPI tomorrow, big banks kicking off earnings season, the potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, and of course more geopolitical headlines involving Trump and the likes of Greenland and Iran.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Important clarification: While markets are watching the US Supreme Court closely, any ruling referenced in this analysis remains potential, not scheduled. The Court does not pre-announce decisions. On a designated “decision day,” it may rule on any case currently before it. For background, see our related update here:
https://investinglive.com/news/no-opinion-today-on-tariffs-from-the-us-supreme-court-20260109/

Before we go into the expected scenarios and what you may consider trading, here’s where you can watch it live when it starts!

Supreme Court & Trump Tariffs: Watch Live

Before it starts, here is a glimpse of the wisdom of the crowd and what the supreme court, in its view, will decide.

Event Risk Window: 8:30 AM ET (NFP) and 10:00 AM ET (Supreme Court opinion release)

Markets are heading into a rare convergence of macro, legal, and positioning risk, with traders navigating both the December US non-farm payrolls report and a potentially market-moving Supreme Court decision on Trump-era tariffs.

While payrolls normally dominate a Friday morning, attention today is clearly split. Many desks are already treating the jobs report as a secondary catalyst, with positioning light and volatility suppressed ahead of the 10:00 AM ET Supreme Court window.

Will the court’s (opinion) be supportive of Trump and tarrifs? What prediction markets are signaling

One of the clearest real-time sentiment gauges is the Polymarket contract asking whether the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs.

As of this morning:

• Implied probability: ~25% that the Court upholds the tariffs

• Market consensus: ~75% chance the tariffs are struck down or meaningfully limited

• Trend: A sustained decline in odds since November, likely reflecting post-argument legal interpretation and positioning shifts

In short, the “smart money” in prediction markets is leaning heavily toward a negative ruling for the tariffs.

Why the Court’s Rulling on Trump Tarrifs Matters for Today’s Trading

Because expectations are already skewed, the risk is asymmetric.

Scenario 1: Tariffs Are Struck Down (Consensus Outcome)

If the Court rules against the tariffs, markets are likely to interpret this as the removal of a long-standing inflationary and supply-chain risk.

• Equities: Supportive, particularly for consumer discretionary and import-sensitive names

• Broad sentiment: Risk-on, but likely controlled rather than explosive due to expectations already being priced

• US Dollar: Potential downside pressure as tariff-driven inflation risk fades

In this scenario, the jobs report may act only as a secondary volatility layer, unless payrolls significantly surprise.

Scenario 2: Tariffs Are Upheld (Low-Probability Shock)

This is where volatility could accelerate.

Because markets are not positioned for this outcome, a ruling in favor of the tariffs could trigger rapid repricing:

• Equities: Sharp downside as cost pressures and policy uncertainty re-enter forecasts

• Sector rotation: Relative strength in domestic steel and materials, weakness elsewhere

• Dollar: Potential spike as inflation expectations and rate-path uncertainty reprice higher

Why NFP Still Matters, but Less Than Usual

The December payrolls consensus sits near +60K jobs with a 4.5% unemployment rate, and some analysts see upside risk. However, even a surprise print may struggle to dominate flows if traders are already bracing for the legal headline.

As Adam Button noted earlier, markets appear “locked and loaded” for the Supreme Court release, with both US and Canadian jobs data potentially taking a back seat.

Remember, the above are just for you to consider as you do your own research. And watch the price action, be careful of end of the week volatilty as market makers can stop hunt both bulls and bears, in case you’re trading this.

For deeper context on the legal timing and market implications, see our full breakdown here:👉 InvestingLive.com analysis: The Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day: what’s the trade?https://investinglive.com/news/the-supreme-court-scheduled-friday-as-an-opinion-day-whats-the-trade-20260106/

Bottom Line for Traders

Prediction markets suggest the tariffs are expected to fall. That means calm is priced in, shock is not.

From a decision-support perspective, today is less about prediction and more about reaction discipline. Watch the sequencing, respect volatility, and remember that when probabilities cluster this tightly, the minority outcome carries the most risk.

We will also be watching the Nasdaq order flow and what it can tell us.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

In a report on Monday, Goldman Sachs is expecting 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 4.40% by the end of 2026 citing a US economy which will continue to stay underpinned.

The firm anticipates US economic growth to hit 2.3% and that will see it keep above the 2% long-term trend. Adding that more robust growth does tend to “steepen the yield curve because you have growth running above its trend rate and then while we do expect the Fed to be cutting, the objective of rate cuts is actually to stimulate the economy”.

Goldman Sachs goes on to note that it would “self-defeating” for the Fed to keep rates at “an abnormally low level” because that would get markets to just simply “steepen the yield curve”.

As a reminder, the steepening in which they are pointing out here is that long-term yields is outpacing short-term yields i.e. wider gap – which often sends a signal of expectation for stronger economic growth down the road.

Well, rising fiscal risks and Trump’s constant attack on Fed independence are also other factors to consider as that would see a premium in wanting to hold US debt. But more simply put, market expectations are also of the view that incumbent Fed chair Powell has already delivered his final rate cut back in December.

It is now on Trump’s appointed successor to Powell to take over and drive a narrative shift. Otherwise, market players don’t seem to be thinking that rate cuts are coming any time soon just yet. So, there’s that as well.

Still, traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts for the whole of 2026. That being said, it’s still early in the year and these odds tend to move around quickly based on macro developments. So, to say that the rate cuts priced in is a given would be a mistake.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 13/01/2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Eurozone January Sentix investor confidence -1.8 vs -4.9 expected
• Prior -6.2

More to come..

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.