Articles

• Fed’s Waller says weak labour market justifies another rate cut in December – recap
• Morgan Stanley lifts S&P 500 target to 7,800 as earnings and dovish Fed drive bull case
• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will meet with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi today
• Bitcoin has dropped under US$91K for the first time in half a year
• Morgan Stanley sees euro peaking at $1.23 in early 2026 before sliding to $1.16
• Barclays: Brent could jump above $85 if Russian oil exports decline sharply
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-rate at 7.0856 (vs. estimate at 7.1096)
• China sets pricing guidance for €4bn euro bond deal to diversify offshore funding
• Japan keeps moderate recovery view unchanged as long-term JGB yields rise
• RBA says rates could stay on hold longer but easing still possible if growth weakens
• Japan yen verbal intervention – “alarmed” over FX moves
• Japan’s finance minister says stimulus has grown “sizable,” but declines to give figure
• Morgan Stanley sees dollar (DXY) dipping to 94 in early 2026 before recovering by year-end
• AAPL news: JP Morgan says long iPhone 17 wait times show demand still outpacing supply
• Deutsche Bank says hawkish Fed behind multi-asset selloff, but broader backdrop still firm
• China and Russia vow deeper cooperation in investment, energy, agriculture and culture
• Goldman sees 7.7% annual global equity returns, urges investors to look beyond the U.S.
• ICYMI – Chinese buying lifts U.S. soybean futures to highest level since mid-2024
• Nikkei reports that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi “eyes tax cuts to spur investment “
• investingLive Americas FX news wrap 17 Nov:The USD is higher/stocks lower as fear increase
• Goldman sees strong central-bank buying, long-term gold target $4,900
• HSBC says odds favour a year-end equity melt-up, bubble fears prove overstated
• Malignant Monday: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow all lower. BTC, risk too.
• More from Fed’s Waller: A rebound in labor market would maybe mean no need for cuts
• Fed’s Waller says supports a 25bp rate cut at the December 9/10 meeting

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama struck a sharper tone on yen weakness, saying she is “alarmed” by recent FX moves and noting one-sided, rapid shifts in the currency. The language marks an escalation in verbal intervention as fiscal concerns push Japan’s long-end yields to multi-decade highs, with the 30-year JGB now around 3.30%.

BOJ Governor Ueda meets Prime Minister Takaichi today in a closely watched meeting, with yen weakness and political pressure complicating the timing of the next rate hike. Ueda has hinted at a near-term move, while Takaichi has urged caution amid signs of softer economic momentum. The meeting begins at 3:30 p.m. Tokyo (0630 GMT / 0030 ET). JPY stayed heavy, USD/JPY holding near 155.20.

RBA minutes showed board members debating whether policy is still restrictive after a jump in inflation and a stronger-than-expected labour market. The bank could hold rates longer if demand stays firm, though easing remains possible if growth or jobs falter. The board views policy as only slightly restrictive and now expects inflation to sit above target until mid-2026. The tone was marginally hawkish, trimming near-term easing expectations. AUD was little moved.

China escalated pressure on Japan, banning travel by state-owned enterprise employees, cancelling tour groups and events, and halting Japanese film releases. The moves follow PM Takaichi’s recent suggestion that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a military response from Japan, raising bilateral tensions.

Bitcoin fell below $90,000, its lowest level since April, amid a broader risk-off tone.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -2.25%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -1.11%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.5%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -1.8%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China has released initial price guidance for its latest euro-denominated sovereign bond issuance, with a term sheet showing plans to raise €4 billion across two maturities. Investors were guided to a 4-year tranche at mid-swaps +28 bps and a 7-year tranche at mid-swaps +38 bps, according to documents reviewed by Reuters.

This marks Beijing’s continued use of offshore euro funding—a strategy China has pursued for several years to

• diversify its investor base,
• deepen financial ties with Europe,
• and avoid over-reliance on U.S. dollar markets at a time of heightened geopolitical and currency sensitivity.

Euro bonds also help China tap demand from European institutions seeking high-grade sovereign credit with modest yield pick-up over core markets.

Such issuance has become a recurring part of China’s annual funding plan, showcasing its commitment to maintaining a presence in global capital markets and signalling confidence in its credit standing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi said there has been no change in the government’s assessment that the economy is “improving moderately,” even after the release of the latest third-quarter GDP figures. He reiterated that long-term interest rates are ultimately determined by the market and stressed that authorities are monitoring financial conditions closely, including movements in longer-dated government bond yields.

His comments came as the 30-year JGB yield rose 2.5 basis points to 3.28%, extending recent upward pressure across the long end of the curve. The government’s messaging suggests continued confidence in the recovery narrative, while acknowledging the need to watch market dynamics carefully as yields drift higher.

—

Rising yields are a concern. I’ve posted a couple of recent pieces on this.

• Japan’s government bond yields surge to highest in years, signalling regime shift

• Japan’s JGB yield rise sparks alarm, but fears of a global liquidity shock are overblown

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama said the government’s upcoming economic stimulus package has become “sizable,” but declined to disclose its exact scale.

His comments suggest the package has expanded as ministries finalise measures aimed at supporting households and sustaining the recovery. However, Katayama signalled the government is not yet ready to commit publicly to a figure, likely reflecting ongoing negotiations over funding, fiscal discipline and political sensitivities around Japan’s already strained public finances.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s Premier Li Qiang met Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Moscow on Monday, with both sides signalling a push to deepen economic and cultural ties. According to Xinhua, Li said China is ready to expand cooperation with Russia across investment, energy and agriculture, and invited greater volumes of high-quality Russian agricultural and food products into the Chinese market.

Li also urged Moscow to offer more support and operational convenience for Chinese firms investing and operating in Russia. Beyond the economic agenda, the two premiers called for broader exchanges and deeper collaboration in culture, education and film, underscoring efforts to strengthen the social and people-to-people dimension of bilateral relations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will launch tax-reform talks this week aimed at cutting fuel taxes to support households while identifying offsetting revenue measures to protect fiscal discipline. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner will debate next-year’s tax package, including the already-agreed scrapping of gasoline and diesel surcharges — a move that will leave a ¥1.5 trillion revenue hole.

Info via the Nikkei. In brief:

To plug the gap, the government is considering scaling back major corporate tax breaks, particularly those for R&D and wage-boosting firms, and examining higher taxes on wealthy households, including reforms to the “100-million-yen barrier.” Ministries are split over shrinking the R&D incentive, which cost nearly ¥1 trillion last fiscal year.

Officials are also exploring new investment-focused incentives such as first-year full depreciation for domestic capex, startup-investment tax breaks, and benefits for companies relocating out of central Tokyo. Personal tax changes are on the table too, including expanding the standard deduction and widening mortgage-tax relief by lowering the minimum eligible home size.

Bond yields have risen as investors question the fiscal implications of Takaichi’s stimulus agenda, underscoring the pressure to secure credible offsets before fuel-tax cuts take effect.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• More from Fed’s Waller: A rebound in labor market would maybe mean no need for cuts
• Fed’s Waller says supports a 25bp rate cut at the December 9/10 meeting
• Fed’s Waller continues to make the case for cutting rates in December
• Trump says he would be ok with launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs
• Bitcoin drops to the lowest since April as the bleed continues
• Fed’s Cook says Atlanta primary residence was an ‘inadvertent notation’
• The thing about wars is that they tend ot develop in ways that you don’t expect
• Stop saying that it’s not a bubble because Nvidia is only trading at 20x forward earnings
• If I were a Japanese policymaker, this chart would make me very nervous
• Bitcoin technicals: The price of bitcoin breaks below support target.
• US August construction spending +0.2% vs -0.1% expected
• Tech sector turmoil: Google defies odds while semiconductors struggle
• Fed’s Jefferson: Need to proceed slowly as mon pol approaches the neutral rate
• A key week for the markets?
• BOE’s Mann: The current environment is showing an upward CPI bias
• Empire State Business conditions survey for November 18.7 versus 5.8 estimate
• Canada October CPI inflation 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected
• The USD is mixed vs the 3 major currencies to start the US session and the new week.
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar little changed, risk optimism pulls back

Markets:

• Gold down -$58 or -1.44% at $4024.79
• US 10-year yields down -2.1 bps to 4.129%. 2 year down -0.8 bps to 3.6059%
• WTI crude down -$0.33 or -0.55% at $59.76
• USD higher vs all the major currencies. AUD -0.80% and NZD -0.53% the weakest on risk off flows.

The US stocks continued its run lower today after trying to move higher earlier in the session. The stronger than expected Empire manufacturing data (18.1 vs 5.8 estimate) reinforced ideas that strong data is not good news for equity markets as traders worry about a Fed that is more hawkish after 50 basis points of cuts in 2025. Inflation closer to 3% vs 2% and employment still steady (from what they see) has taken out a lot of the hope for a December cut (from near 100% to around 35% currently). Trump appointee Miran is on an island with his view that the Fed needs to be more forward looking. Most of the Fed members can be hopeful inflation eases but getting to 2% to most is still well down the road. Moreover, employment is not alarming – at least for now. PS the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 3Q rose to 4.1% from 4.0%.

Having said that Fed Vice Chair Jefferson struck a somewhat dovish tone but with caution, emphasizing the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously as policy approaches the neutral rate and downside risks to employment have increased. He noted that he supported last month’s quarter-point rate cut because labor-market risks had risen and said the current policy stance remains somewhat restrictive. Jefferson highlighted that the balance of risks has shifted in recent months, with greater potential downside to employment, while upside inflation risks have eased—especially as tariff-related effects appear temporary. He acknowledged that inflation progress has stalled just below 3% but said available data still point to gradual cooling in both labor supply and demand. Job-market anecdotes remain mixed, with some firms slowing hiring while others continue to add workers and invest. He added that uncertainty remains high heading into the next meeting.

The final numbers in the stock market today shows:

• Dow Industrial Average -557.24 points or -1.18% at 46,590.24
• S&P index – 61.70 points or -0.92% at 6672.41
• Nasdaq -192.51 points or -0.84% at 22708.07

Nvidia will announce it’s earning after the close on Wednesday. The shares fell $3.57 or -1.88% at $186.60. The stock is down -13.82% from its high.

The stock anxiety is also being shown in the price of Bitcoin. It is trading to the lowest level since April 22 and is now comfortably below the 100K level after trading as high as $126,272 on October 6th. The low price today reached $91,168 (down nearly -28% from the all -time high).

There is no flight to safety in gold as it reacts to a higher USD. It fell in trading today

The USD saw a run to the upside in the US session after up and down trading coming into the session. The Empire manufacturing data got the ball rolling as traders gear up for more and more data releases this week including the September jobs report and initial jobless claims which will be release on Thursday. Below are a list of the releases scheduled this week:

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

• Import and Export Price Indexes (October)

• Industrial Production (October)

• Capacity Utilization (October)

• NAHB Housing Market Index (November)

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (August) – Delayed

• New Residential Construction: Housing Starts and Building Permits (October)

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November)

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes (October Meeting)

Thursday, November 20, 2025

• Employment Situation Report (September) – The most critical delayed report, including Non-Farm Payrolls

• Real Earnings (September)

• Existing Home Sales (October)

• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Latest week)

Friday, November 21, 2025

• S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (November – Preliminary)

• S&P Global Flash Services PMI (November – Preliminary)

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November – Revised)

Looking at the changes, the biggest movers were the AUD and the NZD as risk-off sentiment sent those currencies down the most. A snapshot of the moves vs the USD shows:

• EUR +0.30%
• JPY +0.41%
• GBP +0.14%
• CHF +0.33%
• CAD +0.23%
• AUD +0.80%
• NZD _0.50%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There has been some mild selling in the Mexican peso as Trump just casually mused about bombing the US neighbour. For context, he was asked about launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs, he said “Ok with me.”

Trump also said he wasn’t happy with Mexico.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The lesson of the trade war so far — unfortunately — is that the US is going to get away with it.

When Europe folded on retaliation and essentially accepted 15% US tariffs, that was the ballgame. It was the only bloc with enough buying power to stand up to the US and fight for the global status quo.

The best case scenario after that (and I think this is what the market is pricing in) is that we move on with a new 15% US status quo, give or take.

Today we might have gotten a hint of the problem with that line of thinking. What we’ve learned is that the bigger trade partner has huge leverage and the smaller ones will roll over. Larger countries and blocs may start to leverage that and trade fights could break out everywhere.

There is a report that the UK is drawing up options to retaliate against new EU steel tariffs. The EU has cut quotes and put on tariffs at up to 50%. In addition, the UK is looking at raising its own steel barriers.

Now this is all pretty rich given that the UK left the EU and is now saying this goes against the ‘spirit’ of a UK-EU summit in London.

On this episode, I have no idea how it turns out but the tariffs weapon is now in play everywhere and that’s going to lead to episodes that spiral, dragging on global growth.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Japanese officials won’t like the continued weakening of the yen.

There were buy stops in the past few minutes as it cracked 155.00 for the first time since February and the momentum has continued to 155.25.

On Friday, the pair dipped on risk aversion only to completely recover alongside stock markets. Today, it’s also stocks driving the move as the rally coincided with a bounce in stock markets. Note though that US stocks are back to flat on the day in choppy trade.

Last week, Credit Agricole said to expect verbal intervention on a break of 155.00. The thing about that is that few in the market are worried about auction intervention, as it’s not even on the radar until +160.

Zooming out to the daily chart, it looks like there is some space to continue the momentum to the January highs near 158.00. The story of the year in all markets this year was early-2025 angst about tariffs and late-2025 relief.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -0.1%

This is ancient history but this is the first bite into the backlog from the government shutdown.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The market got something of a lift late on Friday as Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a stake in Google. That’s helped to lift its shares 3.3% and there continues to be heavy rumors of a blockbuster Gemini 3 release around Nov 22.

Elsewhere though, the picture is less-pretty. The market is feeling angst about Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings.

On Friday, US stocks sold off hard initially before bouncing and finishing flat. That momentum looked set to continue in the pre-market with futures up 40 points but that peaked early in Europe and it’s been steady selling since.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.