Articles

• Major US stock indices close higher and extend the winning streak to 5 days
• What are the key technical levels in play for the major currency pairs as the week closes?
• European indices close mostly higher on the day. Solid gains for the week.
• Ukraine’s Zelenskyy: Talks with the US are to happen in the near future
• Canada GDP Q3 annualized +2.6% vs +0.5% expected
• Kickstart the NA trading session for Nov. 28 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• Germany November preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expected
• investingLive European markets wrap: Quiet Black Friday

The USD was mostly lower with the exception being the GBP (USD up a modest 0.05%).

A snapshot of the changes of the USD vs the major currencies as US traders head home early for the weekend shows:

• EUR -0.04%
• GBP +0.05%
• JPY -0.10%
• CHF -0.19%
• CAD -0.36%
• AUD -0.21%
• NZD -0.10%

The big mover was the USDCAD after the GDP came in stronger at 2.6% vs 0.5% estimate.

• GDP Q3 Q/Q +0.6% vs -0.4% prior (revised to -0.5%)
• GDP YoY 2.6% vs 0.5% estimate

The BoC projected +0.5%, so this blows it out of the water However, it was mainly driven by a big fall in imports. Nevertheless, it allows the BOC to sit back for a whiled

From StatCan, they said:

“The rise in the third quarter was driven by a strengthening trade balance, as imports dropped and exports edged up. Increased capital investment was driven by government capital spending, as business investment was flat. Overall growth was dampened by declines in household and government final consumption expenditures as well as a slower accumulation of business inventory.”

The USDCAD fell to the 50% of the trading range since September low at 1.39367 and bounced higher. The pair is closing near a key swing area between 1.3968 to 1.3976.

For a look at that currency pair from a technical perspective as well as other major pairs vs the USD, click on the video below:

The US major stock indices all closed higher on the day and for the 5th consecutive day, but the Nasdaq closed lower for the month.

Despite the gains the NASDAQ is closing lower on the month for the 1st time since March (-1.51%). The S&P eked out a small gain of 0.13% for the month. The Dow industrial average rose 0.32% for the month.

For the trading day:

• Dow industrial average rose 289.30 point or 0.61% at 47716.42.
• S&P index rose 36.48 points or 0.54% at 6849.09.
• NASDAQ index rose 151 points or 0.65% at 23365.69

Looking at the US debt market:

• 2-year yield 3.497%, +1.6 basis point
• 5 year yield 3.601%, +2 point basis points
• 10 year yield 4.019%, +2.1 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.665%, +2.2 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major US stock indices closed higher for the 5th consecutive day. Despite the gains the NASDAQ is closing lower on the month for the 1st time since March (-1.51%). The S&P eked out a small gain of 0.13% for the month. The Dow industrial average rose 0.32% for the month.

For the trading day:

• Dow industrial average rose 289.30 point or 0.61% at 47716.42.
• S&P index rose 36.48 points or 0.54% at 6849.09.
• NASDAQ index rose 151 points or 0.65% at 23365.69

This month, there was a disparity of winners and losers. Looking at some of the big names:

• Nvidia had its worst month since March with a decline -12.6%
• Meta rebounded by 9.04% this week which nearly erased the declines for the month. The stock is closing down -0.0617%.
• Alphabet was a big gainer with a rise of 13.87%.
• Microsoft felt -5.0%
• Amazon felt -4.05%
• AMD fell -15.11%.
• Broadcom rose 9.02%
• Tesla fell -5.78%

Some of the other bigger moves to the downside this month include:

• Raytheon: -36.14%

• Super Micro Computer: -35.76%

• Strategy: -35.66%

• Celsius: -33.35%

• Roblox: -29.00%

• Trump Media & Technology Group: -27.66%

• Oracle: -26.66%

• DoorDash: -25.44%

• Nebius NV: -24.12%

• Arm: -21.17%

And some of the winners for the month:

• Biogen: +23.14%

• Merck & Co: +21.09%

• Alphabet A: +16.61%

• Marriott International: +15.84%

• Western Digital: +15.53%

• Southwest Airlines: +13.60%

• First Solar: +12.91%

• FedEx: +10.42%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

European indices are closing with modest gains for the day but solid gains for the week. Today’s gains were led by Italy’s FTSE MIB with a gain of 0.32%.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.25%
• France’s CAC +0.29%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.27%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.06%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.32%

For the trading week,

• German DAX, +3.19%
• France’s CAC + 1.75%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +1.90%
• Spain’s Ibex +3.47%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.63%

As London/European traders head for the exits, with US stock traders not far behind at 1 PM ET, the major indices are higher led by the Dow industrial average:

• Dow industrial average +0.68%
• S&P index +0.43%
• NASDAQ index +0.38%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says that the talks with the US are to happen in the near future.

Earlier today, the UK’s telegraph reported:

• US president Trump has dispatched his peace envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner with to make the direct offer to Russian Pres. Putin in Moscow
• The report said that Trump is to recognize Ukraine as part of Russia

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior -1.6% (revised to -1.8%)
• GDP Q3 Q/Q +0.6% vs -0.4% prior (revised to -0.5%)
• GDP for September M/M +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior -0.3% (-0.1%)

This is a huge surprise for Canadian GDP. The BoC projected +0.5%, so this blows it out of the water. The central bank can comfortably sit back and not even thinking about cutting rates further.

StatCan said: “the rise in the third quarter was driven by a strengthening trade balance, as imports dropped and exports edged up. Increased capital investment was driven by government capital spending, as business investment was flat. Overall growth was dampened by declines in household and government final consumption expenditures as well as a slower accumulation of business inventory.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP +2.6% vs +2.4% y/y expected
• Prior +2.3%
• Core CPI Y/Y 2.7% vs 2.8% prior

The headline figure is unchanged from the prior month which is what was expected after the unchanged state readings released earlier in the session. The ECB targets the HICP, which jumped to 2.6% from 2.3% in the prior month. The Core CPI Y/Y fell to 2.7% vs 2.8% prior though.

Overall, the data is not going to change anything for the ECB as it remains comfortably on the sidelines and just monitoring economic developments.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar holds slightly firmer in final stretch of the week/month
• Gold Technical Analysis: Precious metals remain supported amid dovish Fed expectations
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• ECB survey shows inflation expectations for the year ahead seen nudging up a little
• Bavaria November CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prior
• France November preliminary CPI +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y expected
• Italy November preliminary CPI +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y expected
• Spain November preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% y/y expected
• France Q3 final GDP +0.5% vs +0.5% q/q prelim
• Italy Q3 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.0% q/q prelim
• Switzerland Q3 final GDP -0.5% vs -0.4% q/q expected
• Germany November unemployment change 1k vs 5k expected
• Germany October retail sales -0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Germany October import price index +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• China seeks formal explanation from Malaysia over trade deal with US

Markets:

• JPY leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher
• US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 3.992%
• Gold up 0.4% to $4,174.74
• WTI crude oil up 0.7% to $59.08
• Bitcoin up 0.1% to $91,519

You wouldn’t blame anyone for not wanting to stay at their desks today, not least with the Thanksgiving holiday still running and it also being Black Friday. But then you even have to throw in a CME data center glitch overnight and that pretty much summed up a lack of interest in really wanting to participate in markets today.

Even with it being month-end trading, there wasn’t much action of note. In the major currencies space, things are staying more muted with the dollar holding just a touch firmer after having been beaten down this week.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1570 currently, keeping a bounce off key near-term levels for now. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also down 0.2% to 1.3211 while USD/JPY is marginally lower by 0.1% to 156.15. Overall, the changes are light and not much to shout about with the run up to the London fix later perhaps being the only key risk event left on the week/month.

USD/CAD is flat at 1.4027 while NZD/USD is shaving off some gains from earlier in the week and is down 0.4% to 0.5707 currently.

In other markets, European stocks are continuing to hold on to gains on the week in keeping relatively steadier today. US markets will be open for a half-day later but don’t expect all too much in what should be a quieter session before the weekend.

Besides that, gold is seen higher as precious metals continue to push gains on the week. Bullion is up 0.4% to $4,174 as buyers are testing the waters of a potential technical breakout ahead of December trading.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin is not doing all too much on the day as well but risk buyers can take heart in the rebound this week as the cryptocurrency continues to hold above $90,000 with the weekend just around the corner.

Well, that should see November trading wrap up with a bit more of a quiet mood. As a reminder as well, the start of December will not feature the usual non-farm payrolls with it being delayed to after the Fed meeting and to be released only on 16 December.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +1.2%
• HICP +1.1% vs +1.3% y/y expected
• Prior +1.3%

Slight delay in the release by the source. Core annual inflation is down from 1.9% in October to 1.8% in November. So, that’s the key metric to be mindful of. So, the main issue for the ECB is still that of Germany mostly (and Spain to some extent).

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 1/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Quiet Day for Markets on US Holiday
Global sentiment stayed upbeat overnight, with major equity markets edging higher in what proved to be another subdued session due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. Trading activity across asset classes remained light, and most instruments stayed locked within recent ranges as investors used the quieter backdrop to reassess the latest run of data and geopolitical developments. Currency markets were restrained, with the majors all trading in tight ranges, the DXY ultimately slipping just 0.03% on the day to close at 99.55. Commodities saw a touch more movement in thinning liquidity. Brent rose 0.33% to $63.34, while WTI gained 0.77%, settling at $59.10 a barrel, supported by ongoing concerns surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Gold eased slightly, slipping 0.10% to 4,156.93 dollars, though it continued to hold just under key resistance levels.

Yen Remains in Focus for FX Traders
The Yen remains in focus for FX market participants into the end of this week, with some key data due out of Japan and the threat of intervention still sitting at the forefront of traders’ minds. Tokyo Core CPI data is expected to print at +2.7% year-on-year, and anything significantly off that will see big moves in the currency; however, the potential for intervention, with the Yen still trading at low levels against the dollar and on the crosses, remains high. USDJPY is about 1.5% off its recent highs, but it is widely known in the market that Japanese authorities are uncomfortable with it above 155.00, and thinner liquidity conditions into the weekend could provide the perfect environment to knock the pair back under that level. Support on the daily chart comes in around 155.50 at the moment, and a break under this – with a bit of help from the MOF – could see the pair much lower in short order.

Markets to Pick Up into the Weekend
Traders are expecting global markets to pick up again today after yesterday’s Thanksgiving Day breather, with key data due out across all three trading sessions and US markets returning later on. The Asian session will see an early focus on Japan with the key Tokyo Core CPI data (exp. 2.7% y/y) due out; Yen traders are expecting plenty of volatility around the event. The London session will see German inflation data in focus, with numbers coming through the course of the day as each state reports individually, the average expected to show the CPI decreasing by 0.2% month-on-month. The New York open will see the return of US markets, although the initial focus will be north of the border for key Canadian GDP (exp. +0.2% m/m); however, liquidity is still expected to remain thin later on, with many US trading desks operating with skeleton staffing heading into the long weekend.

The post General Market Analysis – 28/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Japan’s Tokyo CPI data reinforced BOJ tightening talks without major surprises, New Zealand’s confidence jump indicated recovery momentum post-RBNZ moves, and China’s profits highlighted manufacturing resilience amid upgrades. Markets broadly recovered on global rate cut optimism, with limited volatility from lighter data ahead of US Thanksgiving liquidity thinness. Overall, positive sentiment dominated, lifting regional equities and select currencies while commodities like gold benefited from dollar softening.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders should focus on Eurozone sentiment and money supply data releases today, as they provide fresh insights on regional economic momentum. The U.S. market is quiet due to the holiday, but attention remains on strong labor market signals and Fed rate cut expectations. European equities are starting on a cautiously optimistic note amid mixed macroeconomic signals and ongoing trade-related uncertainties.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 99.5-99.6 on November 27, 2025, marking a slight decline of about 0.01-0.04% from the prior session amid thin holiday trading volumes due to Thanksgiving. Expectations for a Federal Reserve 25 basis point rate cut in December surged to roughly 85%, up sharply from 30% a week earlier, pressuring the dollar lower.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflation pressure but still warranting vigilance given tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices pulled back slightly with spot gold hovering just above $4,157 per ounce for 24-carat purity as of early IST trading, down nearly 0.15% from the prior close amid profit-booking after recent surges. December gold futures on India’s MCX closed the previous day at Rs 125,507 per 10 grams, reflecting a 0.21% dip, while US gold futures settled around $4,190.90, down $11.40. Physical gold in India stood at Rs 126,057 per 10 grams of 999 purity on November 27, also marginally lower.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

German Prelim CPI m/m (All Day)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro showed modest gains versus the USD near 1.16, driven by US data weakness and holiday-thinned liquidity, but faces resistance amid neutral technicals and steady ECB policy. The EUR/USD pair traded around 1.1600, marking a slight 0.03% increase from the prior session amid thin holiday trading volumes. It hovered near its strongest level since mid-November, supported by weaker US data boosting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Over the past month, the pair weakened by about 0.63%, though it remains up 9.69% year-over-year, with recent 30-day highs near 1.1657 and lows at 1.1485.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc is supported by a resolution of a key trade dispute, expected inflation dynamics, and cautious investor sentiment amid global economic developments, balancing out safe-haven flows and risk appetite shifts. This combination sustains the franc near its highest levels in over a decade, while recent minor momentum loss suggests some short-term volatility.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

Sterling snapped a five-day rally on November 27, falling 0.15% to $1.3219 after hitting $1.3269 earlier, as investors shifted focus to economic fundamentals and skepticism over fiscal tightening from Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget. The prior day’s volatility stemmed from an accidental early release of Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts, revealing a £22 billion fiscal buffer but lower growth projections, initially pressuring the Pound before a rebound. Over the past month, GBP weakened 0.26% but remains up 4.33% year-over-year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar is currently benefiting from a softer US dollar environment due to Fed rate cut expectations, while facing internal economic challenges that have limited its strength. The pair is expected to hover around 1.40–1.41 in the near term with cautious market sentiment. This suggests a delicate balancing act between external support from US policy easing and domestic economic fundamentals shaping the Canadian Dollar’s trajectory.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude has declined about 3% over the past week and is on track for a fourth straight monthly drop, the longest streak since Q1 2023, driven by production outpacing demand. Recent sessions saw WTI dip to one-month lows around $58 before stabilizing slightly into the Thanksgiving holiday period.​ Oil faces a bearish near-term outlook from surplus risks and geopolitical de-escalation, though OPEC+ decisions and any supply disruptions could provide support.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the latest U.S. session, price action was relatively muted because Thanksgiving closed U.S. cash markets and no major U.S. data were scheduled, so moves were driven mainly by positioning around recent U.S. data and global releases rather than fresh U.S. headlines. The instruments most affected were the U.S. dollar, major FX pairs (especially EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and commodity currencies), and precious metals such as gold and silver, which traded mainly on follow‑through from prior sessions and thin liquidity.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

For the Asia session and handover into London, focus on positioning ahead of Eurozone flash CPI and German preliminary HICP, monitor price action around Indian assets into the GDP release, and prepare for potential CAD volatility around Canada’s GDP later in the day. Risk sentiment remains cautiously constructive but data‑dependent, so intraday strategies may favor trading around these scheduled events and watching the US dollar’s reaction to any growth or inflation surprises.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading broadly sideways to slightly softer today, with the Dollar Index hovering around the mid‑99s as markets await fresh US data and remain focused on upcoming Fed rate cuts into December. The DXY is fluctuating near the 99.4–99.6 zone after stabilizing there on Thursday, reflecting a lack of clear direction but capping the rebound seen earlier in the week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is consolidating just above the 4,150 USD/oz area, holding within the 4,050–4,150 range after pulling back from October’s record high near 4,380. The dominant drivers today are shifting expectations for a December Fed cut, softer US data, and ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty that keep safe‑haven demand broadly supported.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly stronger, supported by sticky inflation and a cautious-but-firm RBA outlook, while broader moves remain constrained by global risk sentiment and expectations for Fed easing. AUD/USD has recently pushed back toward the mid‑0.65 area after rebounding from three‑month lows near 0.645, helped by a softer US dollar and firmer Australian data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading near a one‑month high around 0.57 against the US dollar after a dovish-but-end-of-cycle” rate cut by the RBNZ, with follow‑through support from stronger domestic data and thin US holiday liquidity. Price action into Friday, 28 November, is focused on whether this bullish correction above 0.5680 can extend while markets wait for New Zealand’s current account and other late‑day data prints.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading slightly stronger into Friday, supported by ongoing talk of possible Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening and FX intervention, but it remains near multi‑month lows against the US dollar in the mid‑155–156 area. Market focus today is on fresh Japanese data (monetary base and services PMI) and BOJ communication, which could shift expectations for a potential rate hike in December.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices are trading soft near recent one‑month lows, with both Brent and WTI still on track for a fourth straight monthly decline as the market focuses on oversupply risks, Russia‑Ukraine diplomacy, and this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Price action remains headline‑driven, but the macro backdrop is clearly skewed toward a mild surplus narrative rather than a supply shock.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 November 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.