• Stock Market Wrap-Up: Tech Sector Tumbles, Dow Hangs On
• WSJ: Trump leaning toward Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed
• Crude oil settling lower by 0.28%
• European indices close lower but not bad relatively speaking
• Tech Wreck: Stocks continue to tumble with the NASDAQ now down -1.78%
• Fed’s Hammack: Balancing both sides of the Fed mandate is challenging.
• Goolsbee wants to wait. Cannot assume the current inflation will be transitory
• Fed’s Schmid Explains Dissent: “Inflation is Too Hot”
• FX technical outlook: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD set the tone into the North American session
• Fed Divided: Goolsbee Dissents on Rate Cut While Paulson Eyes Job Risks
• investingLive European FX news wrap: UK GDP misses, Gold extends gains

The currency markets finished the week on a mixed note. While the US Dollar found support against risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars—mirroring the sell-off in the Nasdaq—it struggled to gain ground against the Euro and Canadian Dollar. The greenback’s performance reflects a market caught between “safe-haven” flows and specific regional strength.

Closing Levels

• EUR/USD: 1.1740 (+0.02%) – The Euro managed a marginal gain against the dollar.

• USD/JPY: 155.82 (+0.16%) – The pair pushed higher, with the dollar showing strength against the Yen.

• GBP/USD: 1.3363 (-0.17%) – The Pound was one of the day’s underperformers, sliding back below the 1.34 handle.

• USD/CHF: 0.7958 (+0.09%) – The dollar gained slightly against the Swiss Franc.

• USD/CAD: 1.3767 (-0.01%) – The Loonie held its ground, outperforming most peers likely due to robust Canadian economic data released earlier in the day.

• AUD/USD: 0.6649 (-0.20%) – The Aussie was hit by the broader “risk-off” sentiment.

• NZD/USD: 0.5802 (-0.10%) – The Kiwi followed the Aussie lower.

Key Market Drivers in the forex today.

1. Canadian Dollar Resilience (USD/CAD)
The Canadian Dollar was a standout performer relative to other commodity currencies. While oil prices struggled, the Loonie was supported by a slew of strong domestic data.

• Building Permits: Surged +14.9% in October, smashing expectations.

• Capacity Utilization: Rose to 78.5% in Q3, signaling a tightening industrial sector.

• Wholesale Trade: Posted a +0.1% gain versus a forecasted decline.

2. Risk-Off Flows Hit Antipodeans (AUD & NZD)
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars were the weakest majors on the day, down 0.20% and 0.10% respectively. These “high-beta” currencies often act as a liquid proxy for global risk sentiment. With the Nasdaq tumbling -1.69% and the S&P 500 down -1.07%, investors rotated out of these growth-linked currencies.

3. Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) Firmness
Despite the drop in US equity markets (which typically strengthens the Yen), USD/JPY rose 0.16% to 155.82. The pair remains sensitive to the divergence between the Federal Reserve’s recent cut and the Bank of Japan’s slow-moving policy normalization.

US Bond Yields : Rising Across the Curve

Treasury yields are moving higher today, retracing the declines seen earlier in the week. The selling pressure has pushed yields up across the board, with the long end of the curve leading the move. Notably, the 30-year yield has climbed to its highest level since early September, driven by the market digesting a massive influx of supply—over $602 billion in Treasuries were sold this week—and reassessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook following Wednesday’s cut.

Current Yield Levels:

• 2-Year Yield: 3.545% (up +1.5 basis points)

• 5-Year Yield: 3.743% (up +2.8 basis points)

• 10-Year Yield: 4.178% (up +3.7 basis points)

• 30-Year Yield: 4.831% (up +4.2 basis points).

For the weeK, despite the Fed cut, the 2 year was the only one to see lower yields this week. :

• 2-Year Yield: -4.0 basis points

• 5-Year Yield: +2.7 basis points

• 10-Year Yield: +4.7 basis points

• 30-Year Yield: 5.6 basis points

Fed officials were open to speak after the black-out period expired. Speaking were Fed’s Hammack (non-voting member but hawk), Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee who dissented to no change, and Cleveland Pres. Schmid who also dissented to no change. Below is a summary of their comments:

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

President Hammack, who will become a voting member in 2026, aligned herself with the hawkish dissenters despite not casting a vote at this meeting. She emphasized the difficulty of the current economic moment, noting that while the labor market has been “gradually cooling,” inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target. Her comments suggest she would have preferred to keep rates unchanged to ensure price stability is fully restored.

• Balancing Act: Stated that balancing both sides of the Fed’s mandate (maximum employment and price stability) is currently “challenging.”

• Inflation Focus: Highlighted that inflation remains above target, justifying her alignment with the “no change” camp.

• Future Voter: Positioned herself as a hawkish voice heading into her voting rotation next year.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid

President Schmid was one of the two officials who dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged. He argued that the economy still has significant momentum and that the labor market appears to be in balance rather than deteriorating. His primary concern is that inflation is “too hot” and that current monetary policy may be only “modestly restrictive,” if at all, which risks undermining the Fed’s hard-won credibility on inflation.

• Policy Effectiveness: Questioned whether current rates are actually restrictive enough to bring inflation down effectively.

• Inflation Warning: Stated explicitly that “inflation is too hot” and warned policymakers not to become complacent about maintaining credibility.

• Economic Resilience: Observed that the economy is showing momentum and the job market seems largely in balance, countering the need for immediate cuts.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

President Goolsbee, typically known for more dovish views, dissented in favor of a “pause” to wait for more data. He expressed discomfort with “front-loading” rate cuts when inflation has stalled above target for years. Goolsbee argued that waiting until the first quarter of the year would have provided the necessary assurance that inflation was truly on a downward path without risking significant harm to a labor market he describes as stable.

• Patience on Cuts: Argued that waiting until Q1 would allow the Fed to be “assured inflation is coming down” rather than assuming current pressures are transitory.

• Labor Market Stability: Noted that the “low hiring and low firing” dynamic does not suggest a cyclical downturn, meaning there was no urgent need to cut to save jobs.

• Inflation Persistence: Highlighted concerning services inflation and emphasized that one cannot ignore that prices have been rising for four years.

For technical views on the major currency pairs going into the new week:

• USDJPY:
• AUDUSD:
• NZDUSD:
• USDCHF:
• USDCAD:
• EURUSD and GBPUSD:

Wrap the week up and put a bow on it.

Thank you for your support this week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Weekly Price Action

Crude oil futures settled the week on a soft note, closing at $57.44, down $0.16 or -0.28% for the day. For the week, the commodity saw significant selling pressure:

• Weekly Change: Down -4.54%, a decline of $3.12.

• The Highs: The week’s high was reached on Monday at $60.30.

• The Lows: Sellers pushed the price to a weekly low of $57.01 during Thursday’s trade.

The Fundamental Story

The sharp 4.5% drop this week was driven by a “perfect storm” of bearish supply data and easing geopolitical risk premiums that overpowered localized disruptions.

• The Supply Glut Narrative: The primary weight on prices this week was the growing consensus of a massive supply surplus heading into 2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report forecasting a record oil glut for next year, driven by surging production from non-OPEC nations (like the U.S. and Canada) outpacing global demand.

• Geopolitical Risk Fade (Ukraine): Traders began removing the “war premium” from oil prices as peace talks regarding Ukraine gained traction. Reports that the White House is sending a representative to Europe for negotiations signaled a potential de-escalation, which reduced the fear of sudden supply shocks from the region.

• Production Restorations: Adding to the bearish supply picture, Iraq successfully restored production at a key oilfield that accounts for roughly 0.5% of global supply, further easing tightness in the physical market.

• Limited Support from Disruptions: There were bullish factors, but they failed to turn the tide. The U.S. seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, and Ukraine struck another vessel in Russia’s “shadow fleet,” but market participants largely ignored these supply threats, focusing instead on the broader macro picture of oversupply.

Technical Analysis: Testing Critical Support

The price action is currently testing a critical floor on the hourly chart, focusing on a low swing area between $57.10 and $57.39. This zone is now the “line in the sand” for near-term direction.

The Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):

• Trigger: Getting and staying below the $57.10 – $57.39 support zone would significantly increase the bearish bias.

• Target: A confirmed break here would have traders looking toward the October low at $55.96 as the next major downside objective.

The Bullish Scenario (Hold & Bounce):

• Trigger: If the price can hold support in this swing area, buyers may look to rotate back higher.

• Target: The immediate upside target is $58.13.

• Key Resistance: Traders must also watch the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at $58.28, which is moving quickly toward that $58.13 level and will act as a stiff ceiling for any recovery.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• India’s inflation rate increases to 0.71% in November, but the Rupee continues to bleed
• Interest rate expectations turn more hawkish for most major central banks except the Fed
• Gold extends gains after key technical breakout, putting all-time highs in sight
• Nifty 50 recovers some losses on dovish Powell, but it’s not out of the woods just yet
• The British Pound falls on weaker than expected GDP data sealing the case for a rate cut
• FX option expiries for 12 December 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been a very light session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight was the UK GDP which missed expectations and weighed on the pound. Traders added to BoE rate cuts bets, increasing the total easing by the end of 2026 from 57 bps to 61 bps.

We also got the final CPI readings for Germany, France and Spain but there were no surprises there as the data came out in line with the preliminary figures.

The most notable mover in the session was gold. The precious metal continues to rally after yesterday’s key technical breakout, and it’s now getting very close to the all-time high set in October. The fall in real yields following Powell’s dovish tone is a good tailwind.

In other markets, US equities continue to mostly range, while maintainig a bullish bias. The bear-steepening in US Treasuries has resumed after Powell’s press conference, with the 10Y-2Y spread close to breaking the April 2025 highs.

The US dollar recovered some of yesterday’s losses, although it looks more like a technical pullback given the lack of catalysts today. We might even see some pullbacks before the NFP given the expected high volatility.

In the American session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. Wish you all a nice weekend!

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:

• India’s inflation rate Y/Y increased to 0.71% vs 0.70% expected in November
• The prior release saw inflation falling to a record low of 0.25%
• The RBI’s inflation target is 4% with a +/-2% tolerance band
• Inflation remains far below the central bank’s target

INFLATION REPORT:

India’s inflation rate increased to 0.71% in November after falling to 0.25% in October. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation noted that the increase in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of
November was mainly attributed to increase in inflation of Vegetables,
Egg, Meat and fish, Spices and Fuel and light.

Food makes up the largest share of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket (typically around 46%). This means that swings in food inflation influence significantly overall inflation. A government review might lower slightly the weight in the upcoming revision in January 2026.

MARKET REACTION:

The INR strengthened a bit following the release but quickly gave back the gains and extended the losses against the US dollar as the USD/INR pair continues to push into new record highs.

Next week, we have the US NFP and CPI reports. Right now, the market is leaning on the dovish side for the Fed, so a surprisingly strong employment report should trigger a hawkish repricing and give the US dollar a boost.

The big picture trend remains heavily skewed to the upside and probably only a major positive breakthrough on the US-India trade front could give the Indian Rupee a strong short-term boost.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 15/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Mixed After Fed – Dow up 1.3%

US equity markets were mixed overnight as investors continued to weigh the implications of the Fed’s latest rate cut. The Dow led the way, jumping 1.34% to finish at 48,704, while the S&P 500 managed a modest 0.21% rise to 6,901, both securing fresh record closes. The Nasdaq, however, slipped 0.25% to 23,593 after tech heavyweight Oracle issued a weaker-than-expected forecast, reigniting concerns that parts of the AI sector may be running ahead of fundamentals. In FX, the US dollar softened again, with the DXY easing 0.29% to 98.34, even as Treasury yields edged higher. The 2-year yield nudged up 0.3 bps to 3.541%, while the 10-year added 1 bp to 4.157%. Oil extended its recent decline, with Brent slipping 0.96% to $61.62 and WTI down 0.91% to $57.93, as markets drew optimism from renewed hopes for progress toward a Ukraine peace deal. Gold rallied strongly, climbing 1.06% to $4,278.85, supported by haven flows and momentum following yesterday’s Fed decision.

Investor Glasses Still Half Full for Christmas Drinks

Major US indices pushed higher in trading yesterday to hit fresh all-time high closes as investors continued to cheer the Fed’s interest rate cut on Wednesday and advice that we will see at least one more in 2026. The Dow and S&P hit records, while the Nasdaq fell marginally, which wasn’t a bad result given an 11% drop for Oracle. The market seems to be driving forward into the year-end with the same ‘glass half full’ mentality that has carried it to records in 2025, and investors are happy to jump on that bandwagon. However, there are some that fear a significant early-2026 hangover could be coming their way, with growth tech firms involved in AI looking to be the highest risk for some sharp corrections in the current environment – as we saw with Oracle yesterday. In addition to those fears, the Fed left plenty of wiggle room for hawks out there as well, despite the market’s initial reaction to Wednesday’s cut – so for now, investors are happy to eat, drink, and be merry while the good times last, but are wary that things can sometimes look different in the cold light of a fresh new day – or fresh new year!

Markets Strong into the Weekend

With the macro calendar far quieter today, traders may still see swings across markets as they continue to digest the heavy run of central bank updates and geopolitical developments from earlier in the week. The Asian session is expected to have a relatively quiet start to the day; however, with products trading at significant levels, traders are expecting things to liven up as the day progresses. The European session sees the release of the only tier 1 data of the day, with the UK GDP numbers due out. The month-on-month figure is expected to show just a 0.1% increase, and any deviation from this will see big moves in the pound, anything lower likely to put more pressure on the Bank of England ahead of next week’s interest rate call. There is little on the calendar in the New York session today, which should see smoother trading conditions; however, as above, with indices at all-time highs and the Fed update still fresh in investors’ minds, most traders are expecting another lively session.

The post General Market Analysis – 12/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Markets continued to digest a Fed cut that was accompanied by cautious guidance, leaving the U.S. dollar weaker but risk sentiment mixed rather than decisively positive. A firmer‑than‑expected Australian unemployment print and lingering disinflation signals from U.S. wage data added nuance, supporting AUD domestically but not enough to prevent it from underperforming in a risk‑off FX mix dominated by stronger EUR and JPY, softer equities, and a powerful silver rally to fresh record highs.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
As European and U.S. trading get underway, the focus is on eurozone flash November CPI, U.K. growth and production data, and Canadian releases, all arriving against a backdrop of a dovish Fed cut that has weakened the dollar and buoyed risk appetite. With the SNB having just held rates at 0% and investors already looking ahead to late‑December ECB and BoE meetings, today’s numbers will be scrutinised for confirmation that inflation is converging on targets without a sharp growth hit.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

President Trump Speaks (11:15 am GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar is trading weak today, hovering near multi‑week lows against major currencies as markets continue to react to this week’s Federal Reserve rate cut and dovish outlook, with the dollar index (DXY) around the high‑98 area and down notably over the past month and year.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

President Trump Speaks (11:15 am GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains close to record territory today around the mid‑4,200 USD per ounce level, supported by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, subdued real yields, and a softer dollar, even as short‑term traders occasionally take profits. Retail prices in key markets like India and U.S.-linked benchmarks (quoted in rupees) are slightly higher than yesterday, confirming the strength of the underlying trend.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro is trading near a seven‑week high against the US dollar, hovering close to 1.17 after steadily strengthening from early December and November lows. This advance reflects a combination of broad dollar softness following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and relatively stable expectations for European Central Bank policy, with officials signaling resilience in the eurozone economy and little urgency to change rates. ​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss franc is trading strongly today, holding near multi‑year highs against the US dollar and remaining firm versus the euro, supported by a steady Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy rate at 0% and a softer US dollar following the latest Federal Reserve meeting.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labor‑market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

GDP m/m (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound is consolidating near recent multi‑week highs against the dollar around the mid‑1.33 to 1.34 region, supported by a weaker dollar after the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and expectations that US policy will continue to ease. However, sterling’s momentum has cooled slightly, particularly versus the euro, as traders turn their attention to a busy run of UK data starting with monthly GDP on Friday and then labour and inflation figures, all feeding into a Bank of England meeting where markets almost fully price in another small rate cut.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Pound is consolidating near recent multi‑week highs against the dollar around the mid‑1.33 to 1.34 region, supported by a weaker dollar after the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and expectations that US policy will continue to ease. However, sterling’s momentum has cooled slightly, particularly versus the euro, as traders turn their attention to a busy run of UK data starting with monthly GDP on Friday and then labour and inflation figures, all feeding into a Bank of England meeting where markets almost fully price in another small rate cut.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets are trading slightly lower, with WTI in the high‑50s and Brent a little above 62 USD per barrel, extending a recent downtrend that has left both benchmarks well below year‑ago levels. OPEC and OPEC+ have left their 2025–2026 demand growth forecasts unchanged while production from core members and US producers stays high, reinforcing fears of a mild surplus. Geopolitical tensions from US actions against sanctioned Venezuelan barrels to disruptions involving Russian‑linked tankers have injected brief support, but risk‑off sentiment in broader markets and concerns about oversupply continue to outweigh these factors, keeping crude under pressure.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 12 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

markets largely traded the aftershocks of the Federal Reserve’s 25 bp rate cut and cautious guidance, alongside a better‑than‑expected narrowing in the U.S. trade deficit. Equities led the risk rally, with the Dow and S&P 500 at or near record territory, while Treasuries rallied and the dollar softened as investors leaned into a lower‑for‑longer rate profile. Precious metals, particularly silver, stayed firm on the back of weaker yields and a softer dollar, whereas crude oil eased as growth and demand concerns offset supply‑side tension.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a session shaped by a fresh US equity record and a dovish Fed cut, which have lifted regional futures and weakened the dollar, but with some caution emerging around expensive tech names and the durability of the risk rally. Focus in Asia will fall on Japan’s industrial output and utilisation data, China’s November credit and money statistics, and any Fed commentary that could refine market pricing for 2026 cuts, all set against ongoing concerns about Chinese growth, property‑sector strains, and uneven global expansion.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

President Trump Speaks (11:15 am GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Friday opens with a softer U.S. dollar, as the Dollar Index hovers in the high‑98s after sliding on a dovish Fed rate cut and the announcement of new Treasury‑bill purchases that pulled U.S. yields down. Major counterparts such as the euro and pound have benefited from this shift, while dollar gains against the yen have paused near resistance as investors look ahead to potential Bank of Japan tightening. With the dollar down about 8–9% over the past year and analysts expecting further gradual slippage as yield gaps narrow, markets are treating the current weakness as part of a broader late‑cycle downtrend rather than a one‑day move.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

President Trump Speaks (11:15 am GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading just below record territory today, consolidating in the low‑$4,200s per ounce after a powerful rally fueled by expectations of a December U.S. rate cut, a weaker dollar, and persistent safe‑haven demand. Analysts describe the broader trend as bullish but stretched, with some calling for a short‑term correction toward lower support before any renewed push to fresh highs. Local retail prices in major markets such as India and rupee‑quoted U.S. rates continue to edge higher in line with international benchmarks, highlighting that gold remains a favored hedge as investors navigate uncertain monetary policy and geopolitical risks.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

Today, the Australian dollar is consolidating near the mid‑0.66 level against the US dollar, slightly below a recent three‑month high but still notably stronger than at the start of December. Support comes from a hawkish RBA that has kept rates at 3.60% and signalled ongoing concern about inflation, while a softer US dollar and improved risk appetite also underpin the currency. However, weaker Australian employment data and lingering worries about global growth, particularly in China, are tempering upside momentum and leaving AUD/USD sensitive to incoming economic news.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand dollar is trading close to 0.58–0.5830 against the US dollar, near its highest levels in several weeks, as recent Fed easing and a softer US dollar combine with expectations that the RBNZ is nearing the end of its rate‑cutting cycle. Technical analysts view the 0.58 area as a key resistance and inflection zone, with the kiwi having gained around 2–2.5% over the past month and holding firm despite periods of risk‑off sentiment. Attention today is on New Zealand’s Q3 GDP release and whether NZD/USD can consolidate above the 0.58 mark, as the data and price action will shape expectations for both domestic monetary policy and the near‑term trajectory of the currency.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is slightly stronger on the day, with USD/JPY hovering in the mid‑155s as the dollar retreats after Fed rate cuts and traders increasingly price in a BoJ hike to 0.75% next week. However, the currency remains structurally weak by historical standards due to Japan’s low interest rates, fiscal concerns, and earlier depreciation, even as record softness against the yuan and persistent above‑target domestic inflation keep attention on how far and how fast the BoJ will tighten from here.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading in the high‑$50s to low‑$60s per barrel range on Friday with a slightly firmer tone after recent declines, as traders weigh strong non‑OPEC production and fears of a 2026 glut against OPEC+’s steady demand outlook and ongoing supply risks linked to Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine‑related tensions.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 12 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.97%, Shanghai Composite down -0.04%, Hang Seng up 1.26% ASX up 1.18%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,301.45 (-0.26%), Silver at $63.950 (-0.99%), Brent Oil at $61.68 (0.65%), WTI Oil at $58.01 (0.71%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.153, UK 10-year yield at 4.4870, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8456

News & Data:

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  236K  to 220K expected

Markets Update:

 Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Friday, supported by mixed cues from Wall Street and ongoing reactions to the US Federal Reserve’s widely expected third consecutive rate cut. The Fed’s softer-than-anticipated outlook on future policy also lifted sentiment, although Asian markets had ended mostly lower on Thursday.

Australian shares are sharply higher, extending Thursday’s strong gains. The S&P/ASX 200 has climbed well past 8,650, led by notable strength in mining stocks, particularly gold miners amid soaring bullion prices. Major miners such as BHP Group, Fortescue and Rio Tinto are advancing nearly 2 percent each. Tech stocks are modestly higher, while oil stocks are mostly weaker. Australia’s currency is trading at $0.666.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also trading significantly higher, reversing losses from the previous two sessions. The index has moved above 50,600, supported by index heavyweights and exporter stocks, though technology names remain under pressure. SoftBank and Fast Retailing are posting strong gains, while major automakers and financial stocks are also advancing.

Across the region, markets in New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are higher, while China and Indonesia are slightly lower.

On Wall Street, trading was mixed, with the Dow surging to a record close while the Nasdaq pulled back. European markets moved broadly higher. Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined on Thursday, with WTI settling at $57.58 amid oversupply concerns.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Building Permits m/m

The post Friday 12th December 2025: Asian Markets Gain Momentum Following Fed Rate Cut and Wall Street Signals first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 98.77

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 97.97

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1710

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1644

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1778

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 181.69

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 179.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 183.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.8722
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8799
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3353

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3287
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3452
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 207.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 205.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 209.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.7987

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7926
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8028
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 153.26

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3768

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3960

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6628

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6572

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5796

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5761

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5869

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,422.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 47,994.03

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 49,168.48

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,945.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,488.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,444.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish  

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,920.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 88,893.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,180.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,904.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 58.51

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 56.79
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 59.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,255.04

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,145.75
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,366.45
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Friday 12th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Trump on Venezuela: It’s going to be starting on land pretty soon
• Trump: Probably only one winner in AI, China or the USA
• Japan October industrial production +1.5% y/y vs +1.6% prelim
• Canada’s Carney inches closer to a majority as Conservative switches parties
• Magnitude 6.7 earthquake leads to 1m tsunami in Japan
• GPT-5.2 is looking like another leap forward

Markets:

• Gold down $15 to $4267
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.15%
• WTI crude up 44-cents to $58.04
• Nikkei up 0.7%
• GBP leads, JPY lags

Flows were light to wrap up the week in Asia but stocks were lively. The Nikkei gapped higher at the open and continued above 51,000 and a test of the monthly high. It failed though and there was some profit taking as the 1.7% gain was cut in half.

Gold also saw some selling after the big rally in US trade. It’s under some mild pressure while silver is flat after hitting a record earlier.

The FX market was struggling to find a reason to get going during a light day of news flow.

The most-meaningful headline was Trump talking about an escalation to ground attacks in Venezuela. That’s led to some moderate bids in crude but had little effect on the overall risk mood. It’s something to keep an eye on.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.0%
• Prelim was +1.6%
• Capacity utilization +3.3% vs +2.5% prelim

Japanese factory data this week has been firm, showing that the trade war isn’t a problem so far.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.