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With the US government shutdown ending, we’ll slowly see more data releases over time in catching up. And this week will feature PPI, retail sales, and durable goods orders from the US – the ones for September at least. While those might not be too impactful now, they are still worth watching in building the overall picture ahead of the Fed next month.

But as we get through all that, do keep in mind that it is also the Thanksgiving holiday season in the US this week. The holiday falls on Thursday but typically, you’d see many people go for an extended break through to the weekend. And so, that might impact market action and general sentiment in the latter stages this week.

As a result of the holiday as well, the weekly jobless claims data is pushed to Wednesday, 26 November. And there won’t be any meaningful data releases from the US on Friday. As such, the trading week may feel like a bit of a holiday-shortened one barring any major surprises.

The stock market is closed on Thursday, 27 November and will only be open for a half-day session on Friday, 28 November. And the same goes for the bond market as well.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This story here on Friday helped to lift the market mood but as a caveat, it’s been one that has made it in and out of the headlines for quite a number of months already. But in a time when the market is desperately looking for something to cling onto, that was enough to at least stop the risk rout last week.

And so far today, the more positive mood is holding but it doesn’t take away from how bad things were in the past week. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.5% with Nasdaq futures up 0.8% as we look towards European trading now. However, the former is poised for a first monthly drop since April with the latter eyeing the first since March.

The negative mood last week comes despite supposedly “great” Nvidia earnings on paper. However, I’d argue that it really depends on how you want to look at it.

If you look Nvidia’s operating cash flow (OCF), it’s down to $23.8 billion or 13% from its peak of $27.4 billion. If revenue was truly soaring, OCF would be too. However, it’s down and that points to a classic story of accounting adjustments boosting the numbers to make it all look nicer than it should.

Besides that, you have rumours floating around that Nvidia’s inventory continued to swell in Q3 to nearly $20 billion. Even if not seen thereabouts, rising inventory amid slower growth is typically a bit of a red flag for most companies. But because Nvidia is the darling of this AI bubble, there are many investors who’d prefer to turn a blind eye to that. However, it should be something worth scrutinising.

So, that’s my take on the Nvidia story. Something, something beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder. And in my view, there are a lot of worthwhile concerns in terms of how the market is valuing the AI bubble at this point in time. Not least with this shift also being needed to be considered.

From a technical standpoint, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now meeting a test of its 100-day moving average. The last time both major indices traded below any of its key daily moving averages was back in early May, following the April tariffs fallout. So, that will be a very key technical level to keep an eye out for in trading this week.

That especially with it also coming at a time with further deleveraging across pure risk assets, with Bitcoin having slumped close to $80,000 on Friday and barely keeping above its 100-week moving average. On the latter technical point, that’s the first time the cryptocurrency has moved down to challenge the key level since October 2023.

While risk trades are showing some life again today, the overall backdrop above continues to suggest that the coast isn’t clear just yet. So, it’d be wise to tread carefully.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

As per his latest post on Truth Social:

“Despite the massive amount of money being made by the United States of America, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, as a direct result of Tariffs being charged to other countries, the full benefit of the Tariffs has not yet been calculated in that many of the buyers of goods and products, in order to avoid paying the Tariffs in the short term, “STOCK UP” by purchasing far more inventory than they can use in order to avoid Tariff payments in the short term. That heavy inventory purchase is now, however, wearing thin, and soon Tariffs will be paid on everything they apply to, without avoidance, and the amounts payable to the USA will SKYROCKET, over and above the already historic levels of dollars received. These payments will be RECORD SETTING, and put our Nation on a new and unprecedented course. We are already the “hottest” Country anywhere in the World, but this Tariff POWER will bring America National Security and Wealth the likes of which has never been seen before. Those opposing us are serving hostile foreign interests that are not aligned with the success, safety and prosperity of the USA. They couldn’t care less about us. I look so much forward to the United States Supreme Court’s decision on this urgent and time sensitive matter so that we can continue, in an uninterrupted manner to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Thank you for your attention to this matter! President”

If you really read between the lines, he’s also implying that the impact of tariffs on inflation is also set to be more striking. No? That will continue to offer some food for thought for the Fed heading into next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• China–Japan flight cancellations surge, expected to hit one-month high on Dec. 27
• Barclays: Risk assets, USD poised for firmer footing into 2026
• Reserve Bank of India reported intervening in FX market to support the rupee
• Barclays: Powell likely to break close FOMC split in favour of cut
• Shares of major Chinese chip makers have slid to multi-month lows – old NVDA story
• South Korea sees scope to cooperate with Taiwan on US chip tariffs
• Japan’s early 2026 wage signals strengthen case for BOJ rate hike
• WSJ’s Timiraos: New Fed chair may struggle to deliver Trump’s desired rate cuts
• UBS: AI and tech to power global equity gains through 2026
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0847 (vs. estimate at 7.1162)
• Goldman Sachs projects AI $8tn payoff, cautions its largely priced in US equity valuations
• ICYMI – Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today.
• US and Ukraine refine peace plan as major hurdles remain
• NZIER Shadow Board majority recommends a 25bp RBNZ OCR cut to 2.25% this week
• Swiss inflation to rise slightly, zero-rate stance remains appropriate says SNB’s Schlegel
• US markets (Globex) are open for the new week’s trade, equity index futures gap higher
• Boston Fed’s Collins undecided on next rate move, cites inflation risks
• Japan signals greater readiness for early yen intervention – may come before 160
• Trump to unveil plan urging Congress to halt ACA premium spikes
• RBNZ rate cut expected this week, last one in the cycle? End of AUD/NZD bull run in sight
• Multiple airlines have suspended flights to Venezuela citing rising tensions
• Rubio says Ukraine talks make most productive progress to date, still further talks ahead
• Canada and India revive stalled talks for major new trade deal
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 24 November 2025
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US Retail Sales, RBNZ, UK Budget, Australian CPI, Tokyo CPI
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Fed’s Williams to the rescue

Major FX pairs traded in subdued ranges with Japanese markets shut for a holiday, draining some liquidity from the session. Local equities were supported by improved sentiment following Friday’s Wall Street rebound and dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams.

The key weekend development was renewed US pressure on Ukraine to accept concessions to Russia as Washington pushes for a revised peace framework. Public comments from the White House and Secretary of State Marco Rubio sounded upbeat, but core security and territorial issues remain unresolved.

The ongoing peace discussions have been cited as a factor keeping oil prices under pressure on expectations that a Russia–Ukraine deal could eventually unwind sanctions and release previously restricted Russian supply. Brent and WTI drifted modestly lower. On the flip side, new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil came into force Friday, leaving nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea, a dynamic that could quickly become the new narrative if prices turn higher.

In equities, BHP said it is no longer pursuing a potential combination with Anglo American after preliminary talks, shelving last year’s US$49bn takeover attempt. Meanwhile, Chinese semiconductor stocks slumped to multi-month lows amid chatter that Trump’s team is considering allowing sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China — a story that has circulated in various forms for months.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) % … closed for a holiday Monday
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) +1.4%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.3%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) +1.2%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A growing number of flights from mainland China to Japan are being cancelled, with 12 major routes already scrapping all scheduled services for the coming week, according to data from industry tracker Flight Master. As of 10 a.m. Monday, cancellations were concentrated among some of the busiest China–Japan links, including Tianjin Binhai–Kansai International, Nanjing Lukou–Kansai International and Guangzhou Baiyun–Kansai International.

Flight Master expects cancellations on Japan-bound routes to peak on December 27, when the rate is projected to reach 21.6%, the highest level in a month. The reductions reflect unusually low planned flight volumes, underscoring weaker travel demand and operational adjustments by airlines heading into the year-end period.

The sudden spike in China-Japan flight cancellations follows a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks suggesting Japan could invoke collective self-defence if China attacked Taiwan. Beijing condemned the comments as belligerent, summoned Tokyo’s ambassador and issued travel advisories against Japan, signalling its willingness to use economic and people-to-people pressure to punish Japan.

At the same time, China has ramped up maritime and diplomatic retaliation: coast-guard patrols near the disputed Senkaku Islands (which China calls Diaoyu), suspension of Japanese seafood imports, and a wave of cancellations by Chinese tour groups and airlines. These actions are partly aimed at reinforcing China’s stance on Taiwan, deterring Japan’s security posture, and signalling to Japanese business and tourism sectors that there is a cost to Tokyo’s shift in policy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

South Korea sees potential to coordinate with Taiwan on how to navigate US chip tariffs, according to Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo. Speaking in a radio interview, Yeo said Taiwan is also in talks with Washington, creating scope for both export-heavy economies to secure “the most favourable treatment” through cooperation.

Seoul recently finalised a deal with the United States that reduces tariffs in exchange for major South Korean investment in strategic US sectors. The agreement includes a clause ensuring that any future US tariff terms offered to another major chip exporter, widely understood to mean Taiwan, cannot be more favourable than those granted to South Korea.

The comments come as US officials privately signal they may delay the long-promised semiconductor tariffs, softening a key plank of Donald Trump’s economic agenda. South Korea’s chip exports to the US have been surging, rising 51% year-on-year in October amid booming demand for AI-related semiconductors.

Info via Reuters.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The United States and Ukraine say they have developed an “updated and refined” peace framework aimed at ending the war with Russia, revising an earlier Trump administration proposal that Kyiv and European partners viewed as overly favourable to Moscow.

Info via Reuters.

The joint announcement came after high-level talks in Geneva led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both sides described the discussions as “highly productive” and said negotiations would continue in the coming days. Officials did not disclose details on core unresolved issues, including how to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security against future Russian aggression.

Rubio told reporters that negotiators had made significant progress in narrowing outstanding questions in the 28-point peace plan put forward by President Donald Trump, though key issues — including NATO’s future role — remained under debate.

European officials joined the talks after drafting their own revisions, which push back against US-proposed limits on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and reject pre-determined territorial concessions. The European version would allow Ukraine a larger military and proposes that any land-swap discussions begin from current front-line positions, not from assumptions about what territory should be considered Russian.

Trump has given Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy until Thursday to respond to the US plan, which reportedly includes territorial cessions, military caps, and renouncing NATO ambitions — terms many Ukrainians view as unacceptable after nearly four years of fighting. Trump has insisted his proposal is not final.

Rubio signalled that the US hopes a deal could be reached by Thursday but conceded that negotiations may extend beyond that timeline. US and Ukrainian officials are exploring a possible Zelenskiy visit to the United States, potentially as soon as this week, to discuss the most sensitive elements of the plan, though no meeting date has been confirmed.

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A revived peace framework could temporarily ease geopolitical risk premia, but unresolved territorial terms and NATO questions mean markets will remain sensitive to headline volatility around the negotiations.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese markets are closed today for Labor Thanksgiving Day, which fell on November 23 (but being observed on November 24).

Earlier:

• Japan signals greater readiness for early yen intervention – may come before 160

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.

How the process works:

• Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.
• The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.
• Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

President Donald Trump is preparing to unveil a broad plan aimed at curbing rising health-care costs, with an announcement expected as early as Monday, according to senior White House officials.

The initiative will call on Congress to deliver legislation that prevents sharp increases in Affordable Care Act premiums — an issue the administration views as politically and economically urgent ahead of the 2026 insurance cycle.

The rollout is set to take place at the White House and will feature remarks from Trump and Dr Mehmet Oz, the new administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Info via CNBC, more here.

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Efforts to stabilise ACA premiums could influence health-insurer sentiment and volatility in managed-care stocks, while signalling a broader policy push ahead of next year’s legislative calendar.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s a very sparse data calendar for the session here in APac on Monday, November 24, 2025.

There is data from Singapore:

• October Core CPI, prior + 0.4% y/y
• Headline CPI, prior 0.40% m/m
• Headline CPI, prior + 0.7% y/y

Due at 0500 GMT / 0000 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Secretary Marco Rubio said negotiations aimed at securing a framework to end the war in Ukraine made their strongest advance yet, describing the latest round of talks as “the most productive day we have had” since diplomatic engagement began.

Rubio said negotiators had “narrowed points in a very substantial way,” signalling that previously contentious issues are now closer to resolution. While stressing that work remains, he noted that the parties are “much further ahead today” compared with the start of discussions earlier in the morning.

The secretary described the draft framework as a “living, breathing document,” with outstanding items that he characterised as challenging but “not insurmountable.” A durable settlement, he said, must ultimately include security guarantees that leave Ukraine confident it will “never be invaded or attacked again.”

Rubio added that meaningful “sustainable progress” had been achieved and confirmed that talks would resume tomorrow.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.