Articles

Ukraine Zelenskyy is speaking and says:

• Talks in London were productive.
• There is a small progress toward peace.
• Ukraine – Europe plan proposals should be ready by tomorrow to share with the US
• Ukraine cannot give up land
• The US is trying to find a compromise on this issue

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Treasury will auction off $50 billion of 3 year notes at the top of the hour. The auction is the 1st of 3 coupon auctions this week with the treasury also auctioning $39 billion of 9 year 11 month bonds tomorrow at 1 PM. On Thursday they will complete the auctions with the sale of $22 billion of 29 year and 11 month bonds.

The 6 month averages of the major components for the 3 year note auction will be compared to the actual results. Below are the averages for those components:

• Tail: -0.2 basis points.
• Bid to cover 2.63X
• Directs (domestic buyers) 24.5%
• Indirects (international buyers 62.5%)
• Dealers 13.1%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDINR corrected lower last week, breaking below its 100-hour moving average. However, sellers were unable to extend the decline toward the next key target—the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the mid-November low. That failure allowed buyers to regroup and push the pair higher, lifting it back above the 100-hour MA, where dips over the past day or two have consistently found support.

As long as the price holds above the 100-hour MA, currently near 89.99, the short-term bias remains tilted in favor of the bulls. For sellers to gain any traction, they must push the price back below that level. A break lower would open the door toward 89.79, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement near 89.656—levels that would need to be broken to shift control back to the downside.

Until that happens, buyers remain firmly in control. On the topside, the high from last week at 90.4370 is the next major target. Above that, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at 90.5700 stands as a key objective for bullish continuation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major European indices are closing mixed to start the new trading week. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.11%
• France’s CAC, -0.18%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.27%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.07%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.08%.

As London/European traders come to the conclusion of the trading day, the US major indices are all negative, and near session lows:

• Dow industrial average -149 points or -0.31% at 47805.
• S&P index -22.51 points or -0.33% at 6848.18.
• NASDAQ index -50 points or -0.21% at 23527.

The small-cap Russell 2000 is bucking the trend and trading up 9.73 points or 0.39% at 2531.12.

Some losers today include:

• Netflix (NFLX): 95.73, down 4.50 (-4.49%)

• Boston Scientific (BSX): 93.29, down 4.22 (-4.33%)

• Lululemon Athletica (LULU): 182.34, down 7.67 (-4.04%)

• Intel (INTC): 39.76, down 1.65 (-3.99%)

• Tesla (TSLA): 438.38, down 16.62 (-3.65%)

• Baker Hughes (BKR): 47.60, down 1.60 (-3.25%)

• Fortinet (FTNT): 84.18, down 2.74 (-3.15%)

• Macy’s (M): 22.17, down 0.68 (-2.98%)

• Nike (NKE): 64.15, down 1.71 (-2.59%)

• Intuit (INTU): 656.63, down 17.00 (-2.52%)

• Stryker (SYK): 354.70, down 9.32 (-2.56%)

• Lennar (LEN): 121.16, down 2.75 (-2.22%)

• Airbnb (ABNB): 121.72, down 2.61 (-2.10%)

• Live Nation Entertainment (LYV): 136.42, down 2.91 (-2.09%)

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): 194.74, down 4.10 (-2.06%)

Some winners today include:

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY): 14.37, up 1.00 (+7.48%)

• Celsius (CELH): 43.68, up 1.62 (+3.85%)

• Robinhood Markets (HOOD): 136.43, up 4.48 (+3.40%)

• Ciena Corp (CIEN): 208.31, up 6.61 (+3.27%)

• Corning (GLW): 88.47, up 2.50 (+2.91%)

• Chewy (CHWY): 34.40, up 0.93 (+2.76%)

• Broadcom (AVGO): 400.90, up 10.67 (+2.73%)

• Micron (MU): 243.43, up 6.21 (+2.62%)

• Strategy (MSTR): 182.71, up 3.73 (+2.08%)

Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher:

• 2-year yield 3.604%, +4.0 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.767%, +5.2 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.181%, +4.3 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.825%, +3.3 basis points

looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading down $0.85 at $59.20.
• Gold is trading down $1.50 at $4195.77.
• Silver is trading down $0.33 at $57.95.
• Bitcoin is trading up $42 and $90,441, but is up from Friday’s close of $89,348

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The BLS is reporting that

• It will not publish the October PPI report
• The November report will be published on January 14, 2026
• They will also not produce October 2025 import and export price reports
• The November import export price indices will be published January 15.

The BLS announced earlier that the CPI data for November will be released on December 18, 2025. The October CPI was canceled.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• According to a filing, the Ellison family (PSKY) and RedBird committed to backstop 100% of the USD 40.7bn equity capital required for the deal.

• The structure with Ellison family eliminates any potential CFIUS (foreign investment) review risk for the proposed WBD transaction.

• If the proposed deal is terminated under certain circumstances, Paramount (PSKY) would pay WBD a USD 5bn termination fee.

• If the deal is terminated under other circumstances, WBD would pay a termination fee of approximately USD 2.9bn.

• Tencent (0700 HK) will no longer participate as a financing partner in the transaction.

• New debt financing agreements were entered into with Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), and Apollo (APO) for up to USD 54bn in principal.

• Jared Kushner is said to be involved in helping finance the bid for Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), according to Axios citing a regulatory filing.

• This follows Paramount Skydance’s (PSKY) all-cash tender offer to acquire WBD for USD 30/shr, valuing the transaction at USD 108.4bn.

Pres. Donald Trump has expressed significant reservations about the proposed Netflix–Warner Bros. Discovery deal, saying it “could be a problem” due to the size and market share the combined company would command. While he praised Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos as a “fantastic man” and called Netflix a great company, Trump emphasized that the scale of the merger raises real antitrust concerns. He also stated that he intends to be personally involved in the regulatory vetting process, signaling that the deal will face unusually high executive-level scrutiny. Despite his positive comments about the companies themselves, Trump made clear that there is no guarantee the transaction will move forward, underscoring uncertainty around whether such a large consolidation could win approval under his administration. The news that his son-in-law Jared Kushner is involved on the Paramount Skydance deal, of course raises an eyebrow.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake is reported off of northern Japan. More specifically off of the coast of Aomori Prefecture.

There are Tsunami warnings for parts of northern Japan with maximum 3 m high tsunami expected after the earthquake

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) launched an all-cash tender offer to acquire Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) for $30 per share.

• The proposed deal values WBD at $108.4 billion.

• The offer covers 100% of WBD, including its global networks segment.

• Paramount has taken the offer directly to WBD shareholders.

• Equity financing will be backstopped by the Ellison Family and RedBird Capital, with additional debt fully committed by Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo.

• Paramount argues the Netflix transaction provides WBD shareholders with inferior and uncertain value.

• The offer is not subject to any financing conditions.

• Paramount will submit a premerger notification filing today under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976.

David Ellison (CEO of Paramount Skydance) is on CNBC touting his offer in relation to Netflix saying that the all-cash is a game changer.

• Says that he believes Pres. Trump is in favor of competitiveness
• if this deal is aloowed to pass it is anticompetitive and horrible for Hollywood
• We believe that what we offer is better for Hollywood and better for the customers
• Absolutely it would be beneficial for Hollywood.
• We will bring 30 movies per year to the big screen

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• RBA preview: Will the central bank switch to a hawkish stance?
• ECB’s Kazimir: I see no reason to change rates in the coming months
• Nifty 50 ends the day lower but rebounds from key support ahead of the close
• Eurozone December Sentix investor confidence -6.2 vs -7.0 expected
• ECB’s Rehn: Sticking to full optionality on rates, full freedom of action
• Market Outlook for the week of 8th – 12th December
• Switzerland November SECO consumer confidence -34 vs -34 expected
• Germany October industrial production +1.8% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• ECB’s Schnabel: Comfortable with bets that next move will be a rate hike
• FX option expiries for 8 December 10am New York cut
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama: Recently seeing one-side, rapid moves
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been a pretty boring session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight was a Bloomberg article on ECB’s Schnabel recent remarks in which she said that she was fine with rate hike bets in 2026.

The interview in question was from last week and Schnabel is a known hawk, so it’s not exactly some fresh stuff. Nonetheless, we’ve been seeing the ECB and some other central banks focusing more on upside inflation risks recently. The main 2026 risk for markets could very well be hawkish central banks.

In the markets, the EUR spiked on Schnabel’s remark but gave up the gains pretty quickly. We are now very close to the last FOMC decision of the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some defensive hedging into it given the hawkish risks.

In FX, we haven’t seen notable changes but the CAD remains the strongest currency following the incredibly strong Canadian employment report on Friday. Notably, the JPY continues to weaken despite the incoming BoJ rate hike. The Japanese officials clearly don’t like this price action with the Finance Minister Katayama today lamenting again about “one-sided, rapid moves”.

The positive risk sentiment continues to hold with US equities trading higher in pre-market and bitcoin adding to yesterday’s gains. In the bond market, things are quite different. US yields continue to grind higher and getting closer to the upper bound of the 3-month range. The latest upside might have been in response to the Canadian data as the market might fear the overeasing risk.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 9/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets in the overnight New York session traded in a broadly risk‑on tone, with equities edging higher, the dollar firm but off recent peaks, and rate‑cut expectations remaining the dominant macro driver. Price action was driven more by continued digestion of this week’s inflation and sentiment data than by a single blockbuster release, so moves were directional but not explosive.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Monday opens quietly with focus on China trade figures and Japan sentiment surveys, setting the tone for the week’s central bank actions, like the RBA and upcoming China CPI on Wednesday. Expect moderate volatility in CNY, JPY, and AUD crosses, with traders eyeing global USD flows ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Position for data surprises, as recent upbeat export forecasts (e.g., +3.3% YoY) could counter slowdown fears.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar is trading on the back foot into Monday, 8 December 2025, with DXY hovering just under 99 after a steady grind lower over the past month as markets lean toward Fed easing in 2026. Price action is orderly rather than capitulation, with EUR/USD supported near the mid‑1.16s and broader FX positioning cautious ahead of key Fed communication this week.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
• The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
• Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
• Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
• The updated Summary of Economic Projections anticipates an unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections remaining near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
• The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
• The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability. Treasury redemption caps will remain steady at $5 billion per month, and agency mortgage-backed securities caps will remain at $35 billion.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold starts Monday, trading above 4,200 per ounce in a bullish but consolidative structure, with intraday projections clustering around a 4,115–4,315 range. The metal is supported by a softer dollar and strong market conviction that the Fed is on the verge of cutting rates, even as traders trim some longs into key US data and next week’s policy decision. Technically, XAUUSD remains in an uptrend but is moving sideways beneath 4,250–4,300 resistance, leaving room for corrective dips within the broader 4,060–4,375 zone that many analysts see as opportunities to re‑enter the prevailing bullish trend.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian dollar is trading with a mildly positive bias into Monday, supported by softer USD sentiment and lingering speculation that the RBA may need to keep policy restrictive for longer, but price action still looks like an extended rally that is vulnerable to corrective pullbacks. Recent AUD/USD trade has been characterised by a steady climb, with the pair rising for multiple consecutive sessions and touching its highest levels since at least October as weaker US data and a softer dollar underpin the move.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November policy meeting, citing persistent inflationary pressures and lingering uncertainties in both domestic and global outlooks. This is the third consecutive pause following the cut in August.​
• Policymakers remain alert to renewed inflation momentum. After a temporary uptick in September’s CPI, trimmed mean inflation for Q3 stands at 3.0%, above the intended 2–3% band. The RBA now anticipates that core inflation will stay above target until at least mid-2026, delaying any hopes of further easing.
• Headline CPI climbed by 3.2% in the year to September 2025, driven by resilient housing (+2.5%) and insurance costs, while discretionary goods inflation is subdued. The transition to monthly CPI reporting from November will improve the accuracy of inflation tracking.​
• Domestic demand remains firm, particularly in services and housing, while manufacturing and discretionary retail continue to lag. Household incomes have stabilized, but high borrowing costs and elevated rents are constraining consumption and risking a slowdown in Q1 2026.
• Labor market tightness persists, though job growth has moderated. Underutilization edged higher. Wage growth is plateauing, but weak productivity is keeping unit labor costs elevated—a medium-term risk that remains central to the Board’s narrative.
• The RBA highlights geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets as primary global risks, against a backdrop of modest upward revisions to world growth forecasts. The Board stresses that its stance remains “cautious and data-dependent,” with ongoing vigilance on inflation, labor, and spending trends.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 9 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

NZD starts the week with a mildly constructive tone after holding above recent lows, but it remains constrained by a still‑stronger US dollar backdrop and a firmly established broader downtrend. With no major New Zealand releases on Monday itself, intraday direction is likely to follow USD moves, global risk appetite, and any surprises from Chinese data, while markets position for later‑week NZ indicators and further guidance on the post‑cut RBNZ path.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading firmer going into Monday, as markets price in a high probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike on 19 December and continue to unwind carry trades built on Japan’s former near‑zero rate regime. USD/JPY has retreated from recent highs around the mid‑155 area after a sharp multi‑month rally, with several analysts treating the latest pullback as evidence that a potential 2025 top may already be in place.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading near recent two‑week highs, with WTI around 60 USD and Brent around 63–64 USD per barrel going into Monday, 8 December 2025, supported by geopolitical risks but capped by a persistent oversupply narrative. The overall tone is still bearish medium term, with analysts warning that a growing glut of crude on the water could pressure prices back toward the mid‑50s for WTI if demand disappoints.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 08 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher into Weekend – Nasdaq up 0.3%

US markets closed the week on a slightly firmer footing, with all three major indices posting modest gains on Friday after key inflation data came in line with expectations. The Dow added 0.22% to finish at 47,954, the S&P 500 edged up 0.19% to 6,870, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 23,578. The USD Index slipped 0.07% to 98.99, while Treasury yields pushed higher, with the 2-year rising 3.8 bps to 3.560% and the 10-year up 3.7 bps at 4.135%, despite markets maintaining a firm view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this week. Oil extended its recent advance, with Brent climbing 0.77% to $63.75 and WTI up 0.69% at $60.08 a barrel, supported by expectations of easier Fed policy and ongoing geopolitical concerns involving Russia and Venezuela. Gold ended the session lower, slipping 0.24% to $4,197.78 after an early-session spike as high as $4,250 faded swiftly.

Central Banks in Focus This Week

Central banks are a huge focus for traders this week, with four key developed nations set to update the market on interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve Bank and the Swiss National Bank are all due to announce rate decisions in the coming days. The RBA, the BOC and the SNB are all expected to keep rates on hold, whilst the Fed is strongly priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut. Even if all does go according to plan in terms of actual rate plays, forward guidance from all four central bank committees is likely to lead to plenty of volatility in markets. We have seen sharp changes in rate move expectations for central banks in recent months as data continues to test markets, and each of this week’s banks have their own unique challenges, which should lead to strong trading opportunities around the rate update events.

Quiet Start to a Huge Week Ahead for Market

The week begins quietly with very little scheduled on today’s macroeconomic calendar. However, activity will accelerate rapidly in the coming days, with multiple central bank decisions and key data releases set to shape market direction as the week progresses. There was very little in terms of geopolitical updates over the weekend to spur markets one way or the other, and we have seen a relatively quiet start to the trading week today. In the Asian session, there is a big data dump due out of Japan today, with final GDP numbers coming out alongside the current account figures, but these are expected to have little impact. The London session also has little on the calendar, although traders will note that Italian markets are on holiday today. It’s similarly quiet in the New York session today as well—very much the calm before the storm later in the week—although sterling traders will pay attention to MPC members Taylor and Lombardelli when they speak later in the day.

The post General Market Analysis – 8/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.