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A senior U.S. official says trade negotiations with Switzerland took a significant step forward on Thursday, describing the latest round of talks as “very positive” and signalling that Washington is edging closer to a limited tariff-relief agreement.

According to the official, the proposal now on the table would reduce tariffs on Swiss imports if approved by President Trump. The official added that the U.S. expects the deal to deliver a “meaningful reduction” not only in tariffs but also in certain non-tariff barriers affecting bilateral trade.

No final timeline was offered, but the upbeat tone suggests the two sides are moving toward a decisive phase after months of intermittent engagement. Any agreement would represent a rare easing of trade restrictions at a time when the administration has been otherwise tightening tariff policy across a wide range of sectors.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Biggest daily decline for stock markets since October 10
• Fed’s Musalem: Outside of data centers, business investment has been tepid
• U.S. Treasury sold 25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.694%
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +6413K vs +1960K expected
• BOE’s Greene reappointed for second term
• Fed’s Kashkari: Inflation is still too high, at 3%
• Hassett: Expect 1.5% lower GDP in Q4 because of the shutdown
• Fed’s Hammack: We’ve got this persistent high inflation that is sticking around
• Fed’s Daly: It’s premature to say definitely cut or no cut in December
• More from Daly: I think risks are in balance, still slightly higher on employment

Markets:

• Gold down $23 to $4175
• WTI crude oil up 17-cents to $58.67
• US 10-year yields up 4.2 bps to 4.12%
• S&P 500 down 1.6%
• Bitcoin down 3.5% to $98,300
• GBP leads, NZD lags

Today’s price action was tough to pin down. Fed pricing for a December cut fell to 50% from 66% earlier this week and that helps to explain some of the rout in equity markets but hardly all of it. More puzzling is what caused the sudden drop as we get the same usual rhetoric from the usual Fed voices.

In addition, that kind of a move should be USD positive when it was largely the opposite the unfolded as the euro, pound and yen made solid gains against the dollar. The pound in particularly was helped by falling UK budget angst.

Some pointed to an AI washout or China chip announcements but that’s a tough sell as there was nothing revelatory. The overspend and overvaluation arguments are still there and they’re somewhat compelling. Michael Burry threw in the towel yesterday and that’s the kind of thing that often happens at the top, so that’s something of a trigger but it would take a lot of people suddenly piling into that idea to get these kinds of moves.

The other curious thing was how limited the drop was. Equities took a brutal hit but he FX market was relatively calm and bonds sold off, which is the opposite of a flight to safety kind of day. That argues that nothing fundamentally changed but we will certainly be on edge Friday.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for October 2025 jumps to 51.4

• September was 50.1, revised from 49.9 g run average for this indicator is 52.4
• 4 of the 5 five sub-index values were in expansion during October (employment remained in contraction for the sixth consecutive month

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel:

• the lift to 51.4 from September’s 50.1 isn’t large, but it has moved the right way
• The October result sees the PMI now boasting four consecutive months above the breakeven 50 mark for the first time in three years

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data from China today, retail sales, industrial output and investment will be the focus.

Analysts expect the data set will show some slowing in momentum for the economy. Chinese authorities have been providing only incremental stimulus. That’s expected to continue through this final quarter of 2025, with more of the same sort of support likely to come in 2026. Having said that, stimulus may be trimmed back even further:

• China set for 5% growth in 2026 on strong exports, Macquarie’s out of consensus call says

This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s a rough one in US stock markets today:

• S&P 500 -1.6%
• Nasdaq Comp -2.3%
• Russell 2000 2.5%

It’s also a bit of a headscratcher as there is no obvious trigger for the decline. Let’s look at some possible culprits.

1) Chip stocks

I lean on the AI theme in part because those are some of the biggest loser today. Nvidia is down 4.2% and threatening the lowest close since Oct 23. Other chip names are also struggling and there are questions about the AI trade in general alongside that. Some of the worries around chip spending and depreciation have been percolating for awhile but China is also making some fairly rapid developments in both chips and open source models that have caught the world by surprise. Overnight ,Baidu unveiled AI chips.

2) Fed pricing

Yesterday, the odds of a Fed cut in December were 66% and now they’re 50%. That’s certainly a reason to sell risk assets but it also begs the question of why Fed pricing suddenly changed? Yes, we had some hawkish speakers today but Hammack has been hawkish for awhile. The WSJ’s Timiraos was out with a report about the divided Fed but that was on Tuesday night and the market rallied on Wednesday. That US government shutdown ended but that’s surely been priced in since Sunday night.

The thing is, I get it. Pricing it at 50% makes sense to me based on what Powell said on Oct 30. That’s when the equity selling should have come but now the kicking and screaming is finally starting. It’s strange.

3) Looking ahead to 2026

We are in a very strong seasonal period right now but I increasingly hear talk about 2026 and it’s not great. The tariff Supreme Court decision might come early in the year and if they strike down tariffs, that will create a mess as Trump tries fresh ways to impose them, creating more uncertainty. If they endorse them, then it looks like a captured court that will rubber stamp anything and that has its own set of worries. Further out, there are the midterms and that could be a drag. More pressing, there is the sense that at some point in 2026 there has to be a reckoning on AI, even if it’s just the usual nerves and market correction. Then the debate is whether you would be better to wait for a 20% pullback in highly-valued tech names before jumping in. That’s a worthwhile debate and has some people shifting into more defensive positions.

Again, this doesn’t really speak to the timing. The reality is that nothing happened today to trigger this kind of risk aversion and — notably — you don’t really see it hitting other assets aside from crypto. The FX market is certainly stable and oil is up on the day. Given that, I tend to think this dip is bought but with bitcoin slumping again, it’s tough to have conviction in that call.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury sold $25 billion of 30 year bonds:

• High yield 4.694%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.684%
• Tail 1.0 basis points vs 6 month average of 0.3 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.29X vs 6 month average of 2.36X
• Directs 14.50% vs 6 month average of 26.0%
• Indirects 70.99% vs 6 month average of 61.6%
• Dealers 14.51% vs 6 month average of 12.4%

Auction Grade: C-

There was a positive tail of 1 basis points above the WI level, and the Bid to cover was below the six-month average indicative of less demand.

The domestic demand was well off the average while international demand was higher.

The dealers were saddled with more of the issue to distrubute. Overall the grade is below average.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The third of the 3 coupon auctions will take place at 1 PM when the US treasury auctions off $25 billion of 30 year bonds.

The results of the auction will be compared to the components 6 month averages including:

• Bid to cover, 2.36X
• Tail, 0.3 basis points
• Directs (a measure of domestic demand) 26.0%
• Indirects (a measure of international demand) 61.6%
• Dealers 12.4%

The 3 year note auction on Monday was met with strong demand from both domestic and international buyers. The 10 year note auction was met with average demand.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It’s a rough one in the Magic Kingdom today.

Shares of Disney are down 8.8% shortly after the open following today’s earnings report. That sends them to the lowest level since May.

The numbers (fiscal Q4 2025)

• Adjusted EPS: $1.11 vs 1.05 estimate

• Revenue: $22.5B, flat y/y and just under the $22.75B street view.

Streaming / DTC (the bright spot)

• Streaming profit +39% y/y to $352M.

• Disney+ and Hulu added 12.5M subs, taking the combined base to about 196M.

Parks & Experiences (still strong)

• Operating income at the “experiences” unit (parks, resorts, cruises) +13% y/y to $1.88B, driven partly by more cruise passenger days and Disneyland Paris.

• This is a good sign for the economy/sconsumer

Entertainment / TV / ESPN (the problem child)

• Entertainment division operating income down by more than a third to $691M as this year’s film slate couldn’t match last year’s hits.

• Traditional TV profit -21% to $391M; ESPN also down.

Weak cable/linear trends are what pulled revenue under consensus and are the core bear argument on the stock and why shares are down so hard today. The good news is the dividend was hiked 50% to $1.50 and they’re buying back shares.

There is a transition that’s the bet you’re making with Disney shares and it’s one that consumers are making too as streaming wins versus cable. Top executives said that as Disney continues to establish Direct-to-Consumer as “a core driver of growth,”

“Looking ahead, we are positioned to continue to grow our streaming business in fiscal 2026,” said CEO Bob Iger.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Does not see much of an argument not to cut rates
• Will get jobs market, not unemployment for one month of data

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I’ve repeated this often and I will repeat it again: Short selling is so hard, that if someone actually gets it right, they make a movie about them.

And it turns out that if you get it right, it’s more a case of luck and timing than skill, because none of the people in the movie have done it again and none of the famous short sellers make money.

Don’t short.

Michael Burry was in the news lately for filing a 13F showing large put option positions in Palantir and Nvidia. That seemed to get the market’s attention as both have since struggled but what many commentators missed was that the positions were for Q3, which ended September 30. He was deep underwater on those puts and even with the large drops in both lately, he still is.

In any case, he’s throwing in the towel and will convert to a family office.

Now there is something to be said about shorts throwing in the towel at the peak of the bull market…

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

America is back!

Well, at least the government is back open and that means data is back on the economic calendar. Now I haven’t totally confirmed that it will be released but it looks like it will come out at the bottom of the hour. The consensus is 225K and it’s for the week ending Nov 8.

Needless to say, there is a gap in the historical record with the last data set from the week ending Sept 25.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar a touch on the softer side in European morning trade
• USD/JPY settles just under 155 level for now, traders weigh up intervention risks
• Gold Technical Analysis: Shutdown ended, US data in focus next
• ECB’s Villeroy: Victory over inflation in France looks lasting
• UK Q3 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• UK September monthly GDP -0.1% vs 0.0% expected
• Eurozone September industrial production +0.2% vs vs +0.7% m/m expected
• China October M2 money supply +8.2% vs +8.1% y/y expected
• IEA raises world oil demand growth forecast but still sees supply glut coming

Markets:

• AUD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.098%
• Gold up 0.8% to $4,234.01
• WTI crude oil up 0.8% to $58.93
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $102,925

It was a relatively quiet session with light market moves as well as not too many headlines that stood out. The preliminary results for UK Q3 GDP were a bit of a bummer and that led to a brief drop in the pound. GBP/USD fell from 1.3120 to 1.3100 before erasing losses shortly after, with the pair now back up to 1.3150 levels.

A softer dollar isn’t helping with the greenback trailing behind European currencies and even seeing USD/JPY back away from a test of 155.00 to be flattish around 154.70 levels currently.

The lead gainer in the major currencies space is the Australian dollar, buoyed by a stronger jobs report from earlier in the day. AUD/USD is up 0.4% to 0.6560 but off earlier highs of 0.6580 during the tail end of Asia trading.

In other markets, stocks were more mixed in Europe with the DAX holding lower while the CAC 40 index traded higher. Other major indices in the region are holding marginal gains though UK stocks are also seen lower on the day as the hot streak fizzles on the week.

As for US futures, they slowly dribbled lower with tech shares once again being a concern. Or should I say more so the Mag 7. There has been a steady rotation out of that this week and also as what we saw yesterday. So, that looks to be carrying over once again ahead of the Wall Street open later.

S&P 500 futures were up around 0.3% to start European trading but are now down 0.2% with Nasdaq futures also lower by 0.2%. Dow futures are flat currently.

In the commodities space, gold is continuing its solid rebound in a push above $4,200 on the day. That’s keeping buyers well interested in the hunt towards the October highs once more before the supposedly hot seasonal streak kicks in during December and January.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.