The Atlanta FedGDPNow growth is referred Q3 dipped to 3.8% from 3.9% previously. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent percent on December 4, down from 3.9 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.2 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent, were partially offset by an increase in the nowcast in the contribution of net exports to GDP growth from 0.80 percentage points to 0.85 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update will be no later than Friday, December 5. The first model nowcast for fourth-quarter GDP growth will not occur before Tuesday, December 23.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The proliferation of the GDPNow report has turned into a real test of economists.

It’s a semi-useful indicator but really only in the couple weeks before the advance US release, when much of the data has been released. Instead, people quote it throughout the quarter at times when it’s based on vague assumptions and models that are volatile.

Moreover, the US government shutdown rendered the current version virtually obsolete and that won’t improve until we catch up on the data in Q1.

Now I understand why politicians love to quote this number when it’s running hot like it is now, but if you’re in markets, you need to know better. If the Atlanta Fed was serious, it would have stopped publishing this report and pulled its estimates.

All that said, the latest number is down to 3.8% from 3.9%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +1.4%
• Durable goods orders unrevised at +0.5% vs +0.5% prelim
• Non-defense capital goods orders unrevised at +0.9%

These are dated numbers because of the US government shutdown and won’t be market movers

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Revelio Labs creates monthly employment estimates from online employment profiles and other information is out with its November estimate and it sees a -9.0K reading in what would be the second consecutive month of jobs losses.

Some details:

• Leisure and hospitality -12K
• Retail -9K
• Manufacturing -7K

The soft retail number is concerning ahead of the holidays.

This report comes after the -32K release from ADP yesterday.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior week 216K
• initial jobless claims 191K. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when
  it was 189,000. The claims is for the week of November 29.
• The 4-week moving
  average was 214,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was
  revised up by 500 from 223,750 to 224,250
• Continuing claims 1.939 million versus 1.961 million estimate
• The 4-week moving
  average was 1,945,250, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was
  revised down by 4,250 from 1,955,750 to 1,951,500.

The data for the initial jobs claims may be influenced by the Thanksgiving day holiday.. For the continuing claims it is for the week of November 22. Thanksgiving was on November 27. Nevertheless, the data is definitely near the lows suggesting there does not seem to be a lot of laying off.

Low hire. Low fire.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Chicago Fed releases a real-time unemployment forecast and sees as slight improvement in November at 4.44% vs 4.46% in October. The survey highlights how they’ve had to adjust due to the lack of non-farm payrolls.

“To estimate the November 2025 unemployment rate probabilities, we made
an adjustment to account for the cancellation of the November 7th
release of BLS data for October,” the report said.

Note that the distribution of probabilities is tilted higher.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US-based employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November, which marks a 53% decline compared to the previous month at least. But when compared to the same period last year, layoffs were 24% higher and this is the highest November month tally since 2022. So, that puts things into better context at least.

As a whole, total job cuts for the 2025 year-to-date amount to roughly 1.171 million – which is up 54% compared to the 2024 year-to-date through to November.

Meanwhile, planned hires only totaled to 497,151 – which is the lowest year-to-date total since 2010, and down 35% compared to 2024.

Once again, all of this just continues to point to further softening in labour market conditions as a whole.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Japanese yen gains pick up as BOJ looks to win first showdown against Takaichi
• BOJ reportedly likely to raise interest rates later this month
• China state-owned banks reportedly buying dollars to tame the surging yuan
• ECB’s Cipollone: Risks around inflation seem balanced
• Eurozone October retail sales 0.0% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Germany November construction PMI 45.2 vs 42.8 prior
• UK November construction PMI 39.4 vs 44.1 expected
• Reminder: There will be no US non-farm payrolls release this week
• China President Xi says will expand domestic demand in 15th five-year plan

Markets:

• JPY leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 4.085%
• Gold down 0.2% to $4,197.85
• WTI crude oil up 0.6% to $59.30
• Bitcoin down 0.9% to $92,928

There wasn’t much action in European trading today as markets keep the calm on the week, as the anticipation continues to build towards the Fed policy decision next week.

The Japanese yen is the notable mover, nudging higher after a report reaffirmed intentions by the BOJ to raise interest rates again this month. That of course follows from the more hawkish rhetoric from BOJ governor Ueda earlier in the week, with government sources saying that they will have little choice but to tolerate the course of action by the central bank in hiking rates on 19 December.

USD/JPY hovered around 155.10 early on in the day but slowly tracked lower before stumbling to around 154.55 currently, down 0.5% on the day. That is the lowest the pair has traded since mid-November and keeps sellers interested in search of a further downside retracement after the jump higher last month.

Besides that, major currencies in general kept rather muted with not all too much going on. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1675 with large option expiries keeping things in check while GBP/USD is also flat at 1.3353 on the day. Meanwhile, there wasn’t much appetite among commodity currencies either with USD/CAD up just 0.1% to 1.3968 and AUD/USD up 0.1% to 0.6610 currently.

In the equities space, European indices are posting modest gains with the DAX bouncing back after the losses yesterday. However, US futures are keeping more tentative and that’s permeating a more reserved market mood in general ahead of the Wall Street open later. S&P 500 futures are just marginally up but close to little changed and that’s not leaving much to work with in terms of risk appetite today.

In the commodities space, gold is down slightly back under $4,200 while silver is tracking lower and at one point erased gains for the week during the session. The latter dipped down by over 2% to a low of $56.65 earlier before a slight bounce back to $57.53 now – still down 1.6% on the day. So, precious metals are not quite finding much conviction to start the new month thus far.

Coming up, we’ll have the US Challenger job cuts and weekly initial jobless claims to get through. So, that’ll add just a tad bit of spice on the day as we gear towards North America trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior -0.1%; revised to +0.1%

Euro area retail sales held more stable in October, with the breakdown showing an increase in the volume of retail trade for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%) and automotive fuel (+0.3%). That is offset by a decline in retail sales for non-food products (-0.2%).

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior 44.1

Ouch, that’s a bummer. The drop in November marks the steepest downturn in UK construction
output for five-and-a-half years, with all three subsectors seeing the greatest
fall in activity since May 2020. That comes amid a sharp reduction in both new orders and employment. Meanwhile, business optimism also sank to its weakest since December 2022. S&P Global notes that:

“November data revealed a sharp retrenchment across
the UK construction sector as weak client confidence
and a shortfall of new project starts again weighed on
activity.

“Total industry activity decreased to the greatest
extent for five-and-a-half years, led by steep falls in
infrastructure and residential building work. Commercial
construction also faced severe headwinds during
November as business uncertainty in the run up to the
Budget pushed clients to defer investment decisions.

“Lower workloads, alongside pressure on margins from
rising wages and purchasing costs, continued to dampen
staff hiring in November. The latest round of job cuts was
the most marked since August 2020.”

“Construction companies also signalled a slide in
business activity expectations for the year ahead as
hopes of an imminent rebound in sales pipelines faded
in November. The degree of optimism dropped to its
lowest since December 2022 amid reports of cutbacks to
client budgets and pervasive worries about long-term UK
economic growth prospects.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.09

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 98.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1649

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.1612

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1711

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8708
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8798
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3162
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3410
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 153.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 157.61
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8038

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8094
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 155.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 153.13

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.4047

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3935

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.4134

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6572

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6518

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6623

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5797

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,380.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,847.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,426.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 23,488.29

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,293.56

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 23,956.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,870.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 89,151.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,230.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,964.33

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 59.46

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,273.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 4,149.19
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,375.82
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Thursday 4th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher after Weaker Data – Dow up 0.8%

US stocks pushed higher in the latest session, extending their recent momentum as weaker-than-expected US jobs data strengthened expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The Dow led the gains, rising 0.86% to close at 47,882, while the S&P 500 added 0.30% to finish at 6,849. The Nasdaq advanced more modestly, up 0.17% at 23,454. The softer ADP Non-Farm figures drove Treasury yields lower, with the 2-year slipping 2.4 basis points to 3.484% and the 10-year easing 2.7 basis points to 4.059%. The US dollar also weakened further, with the USD Index falling 0.46% to 98.87. Oil prices continued to move higher as faltering Russia–Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical tensions elevated. Brent crude rose 0.56% to settle at $62.80, while WTI crude climbed 0.82% to $59.12. Gold traded in another rare tight range, slipping marginally by 0.05% to close at $4,204.13.

Pound in Focus for FX Markets

Sterling jumped into trader focus yesterday as the FX Gods aligned to see it drive higher against the dollar and on the crosses. Cable powered over 1% on the day with little respite in the move, and it was a similar story on the crosses with EUR/GBP losing 0.6% across all three trading sessions. There was no definitive driver of the move, but it does appear that a few different factors combined to see the outsized move occur. Most traders agree that the speculative side of the market was short, and stop-losses in Cable above 1.3270 and 1.3300 would have contributed to the move. Services and Composite PMI data also came in stronger than expected, but not by a degree that you would normally expect to move the market by that degree. The weaker US ADP number would have contributed to the move in Cable, and this could have fed through to cross moves as well, but overall traders feel that the move may have been overdone given other moves in the majors. Now, traders will be watching the pound closely in coming sessions to see whether the move is justified or whether we see a bit of retracement back into recent ranges.

Quieter Day on the Economic Calendar Today

The macroeconomic calendar is quieter during the first two sessions of the day today, but attention will shift back to the US tonight with some more key labour-market indicators due. Investors will be watching Challenger job cuts data earlier in the session, which has sprung up in importance since the government shutdown; last time out, they came in at 173%, and anything higher is likely to back last night’s ADP data miss and push rate-cut expectations up even further. Later in the session, we have the release of the weekly unemployment claims, with expectations for a 219k print firmly priced in. Canada’s Ivey PMI is also scheduled north of the border, with anything significantly off the expected 53.6 print likely to see volatility in the loonie.

The post General Market Analysis – 4/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.