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Shares of United Airlines are up 1.8% today after earnings. UAL stock of off the record high set earlier this month by about 8% but airlines continue to offer an interesting window into the real economy.

Similar to Delta Airlines (who reported last week), virtually all the growth was in the premium end of the plane.

For the year, premium revenues increased approximately 11%, while standard and Basic Economy revenues were down approximately 5%. The trend was the same in the fourth quarter. The trend isn’t just premium improving while the lower classes stay flat, basic economy revenues fell despite a 6% increase in capacity.

That’s a stark reminder that two different economies are operating in the United States at the moment.

For the airline industry in particular, the loyalty business is a booming one. Airlines basically pioneered the loyalty industry and United highlighted that revenues were up 9% and payments from global co-brands were up 12%. There is a saying in airlines now that they’re loyalty businesses with planes attached to them.

Looking ahead, the company highlighted strong bookings.

Based on what we’ve seen so far this year, bookings and yields are outpacing the strong start from last year, and we’re hopeful that the momentum will continue, which could admittedly cause our guidance to feel a bit conservative.

The company also noted strong business booking so far this year, which is a good sign for the economy.

Another notable ongoing shift for airlines is that travel is being spread out across the year. Where it was once families and workers traveling on holidays and in the summer, it’s now wealthy baby boomers who are traveling on off-peak times. That allows airlines to smooth out capacity and operate more efficiently.

Looking to the first quarter at United, they expect earnings per share to be between $1 and $1.50, an approximately 37% earnings improvement versus the first quarter of last year. Building off a strong quarter for the full year 2026, they expect earnings per share to be between $12 and $14. At the midpoint, this represents over 20% growth and implies continued margin expansion as we march towards double-digit margins.

In 2025, the company generated $2.7 billion in free cash flow and, in 2026, they expect to deliver a similar level of free cash flow despite higher aircraft deliveries. That’s a 7.7% FCF yield on a $35 billion market cap. The company plans to deleverage and invest in aircraft until the end of the decade, when it will then be in an enviable position. The company has been buying back shares and has $782 million left in its authorization.

In terms of investment, CIBC is out with a note on how they expect large carriers to chew up discount airlines.

We expect carriers with higher exposure to premium,
corporate, and loyalty-driven demand to demonstrate greater resilience in
yields and margins in 2026, relative to leisure-focused peers.

That sounds like United and chief executive Scott Kirby said something similar:

I think the structure of the industry is ultimately going to be low-cost carriers will shrink down to the niche that works for low-cost carriers. That is big leisure markets. And I don’t know if they’re going to liquidate, if they’re going to merge, if they’re just going to all shrink, for sure. But they’re going to shrink down to the niche that works.

He was also ruthless in some comments about American Airlines and the battle for dominance in Chicago. He highlighted that United’s focus on loyalty has vaulted it far ahead of American, and that its competitor will lose $1 billion at the hub this year, despite big investments to try and get market share.

I think there’s going to be 2 brand-loyal airlines [UAL and DAL]. That’s already the case. I gave you the numbers in Chicago. That game is over. I realize that not everyone knew the game was on. The game is over. And when we have that big of a lead with customers, like you just don’t win it back because you’d have to have technology, product and services that were somehow better than United and somehow better than Delta to even start. And you’re a decade behind.

That kind of competitive spirit is good for consumers.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is out and it’s up to 5.4% annualized in the fourth quarter from 5.3% previously. It’s a tough quarter to track because so much of the data has been screwed up by the long US government shutdown.

Today’s construction spending numbers along with some recent data has been led to the change:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 21, up from 5.3 percent on January 14. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, increases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 3.1 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 6.4 percent, were partially offset by a decrease in the nowcast in the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter GDP growth from 1.99 percentage points to 1.88 percentage points.

The economists over at Pantheon Macroeconomics aren’t buying it.

In a new note to clients, Chief US Economist Samuel Tombs called the forecast “highly questionable” and “far too optimistic.”

The crux of the argument from Pantheon is that the GDPNow model is a black box that spits out a number without any “sensible judgment calls” on data quirks or shifting trends.

There is almost no hard data for December, very little for November, and even October has gaps. They remind us that at this stage in the game, the GDPNow model has a historical average error of 1.2 percentage points—and has missed by as much as 3.6 points in the past.

The real difficulty is that GDPNow is projecting 3.1% growth in consumer spending. Pantheon calls this “hard to fathom.” Specifically, the model sees 1.8% growth in goods spending, while Pantheon’s own mapping and Bloomberg’s Second Measure indicator suggest spending on goods is actually flat.

Along the same lines, while the Fed model sees 3.7% growth in services spending, Pantheon’s “high-frequency indicators”—like hotel occupancy, TSA passenger counts, and even Google searches for “cancelling subscriptions”—suggest the sector is losing momentum.

Pantheon also notes a weird tension in the projections. The model assumes a massive 2.0 percentage point contribution from net foreign trade and a 0.8 point boost from inventories. Historically, these two usually move in opposite directions.

Trump was touting the quarterly annualized number as if it was an annual number today at Davos, but even if we do get 5.4% q/q annualized growth in Q4 and the Q3 number of 4.3% holds up (the final report is tomorrow), then that’s only 3.16% GDP growth for the year. That’s very good but it’s not amazing.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump made the trip to Davos and spoke for nearly and hour-and-a-half and it was the usual song and dance. It was more of a campaign speech for a domestic audience than focused on the global order. It was all comments you’ve heard before with the usual “the likes of which you’ve never seen.” He also made some ridiculous claims like that the US will double steel production in the next four months, which is absurd.

But there were two comments worth noting and they’re why the stock market is rebounding from yesterday’s rout, which was the worst since Oct 10.

1) He said the US won’t use force in Greenland

He didn’t outline any kind of coherent reason for taking Greenland. He talked about missile defense but but that’s something the US can already do in Greenland. He continued to insist on the US taking it over and warned that if Greenland refuses (or Europe does), then “we will remember.” That’s somewhat ominous and tariffs are obviously on the table but at least his ‘no force’ pledge reduces some of the tail risks that would truly cause Europe to have to look in the mirror and break from the US. There will surely be more developments on this file while Trump is in Davos.

2) He talked about the stock market doubling

Trump spoke about new highs in the stock market, the same as he did yesterday. However he also said that the stock market will double. It’s a reminder that stocks are Trump’s north star at the end of the day. He highlighted the weak day yesterday, which is a reminder that he looks at it daily and could never take the pain of a market-negative policy for long.

On the downside, he once again talked about capping credit card interest rates and blocking institutional ownership of single-family homes but the market has already concluded that neither of those things will actually happen.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pending home sales

• Pending home sales -9.3% vs +0.4% expected
• The index 71.8 vs 79.2 prior

• US October construction spending +0.5% vs +0.1% expected
• Prior was +0.2%

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• We are ‘very much into’ nuclear energy
• We will double domestic steel production over the next four months
• Venezuela will do fantastically well
• I want Europe to do great, I want the UK to do great
• Europe needs to get out of the culture war
• Energy, trade and immigration
• They had no idea what happened in Venezuela, their missiles went up and right back down
• We have capabilities that no one knows about
• After Venezuela, they will develop new missiles

On Greenland:

• Denmark fell to Germany in WWII in hours
• We fought for Denmark
• Without us, you’d all be speaking German
• How stupid were we to give Greenland back after the war, how ungrateful are they now

The steel production line is laughable, as no one is out there building anywhere near that kind of capacity and current capacity utilization is at 75.9%, and getting anywhere near 100% is not a four-month job. Nippon is planning to increase US Steel’s capacity but that’s a 3-5 year project.

What he has done is double steel tariffs to 50% from 25% and that’s led to a 2.9% y/y increase in production.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

What to watch in this Trump speech at Davos Live Now

1) Trade and tariffs

Any fresh tariff language can quickly move:

• USD pairs

• Industrial and export-sensitive stocks

• Semiconductors and global supply chain names

2) Energy policy

Listen for comments on:

• Oil and gas production

• Energy security

• Inflation framing tied to energy prices

3) Geopolitics and risk tone

Risk-on vs risk-off can show up fast in:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures

• VIX

• Gold

• USD, JPY, CHF

4) Fed and inflation narrative

Any pressure talk or inflation framing can move rates expectations:

• US 2Y and 10Y yields

• Growth stocks vs value rotation

Live updates and highlights

We will post timestamped notes here as the speech develops.

Updates feed *updated live:

• Wait for the next update

Quick market pulse

If you want a fast read during the stream, watch these in parallel:

• US index futures: ES, NQ

• Rates: US 2Y, US 10Y

• FX: DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD

• Commodities: Gold, WTI crude

• Volatility: VIX

Why Trump speaking at Davos matters today

Davos headlines often hit markets through expectations. Traders usually react first to:

• Greenland! Hey, it’s Trump, and it’s almost always a good show. More seriously, expect volatility in markets.

• A clear policy stance (trade, energy, regulation)

• A shift in risk tone (confidence vs caution)

• Anything that changes the inflation or growth narrative

The first move is not always the real move. Watch follow-through after the initial headlines.

Trade management reminder

Live events can cause fast spikes, wick hunts, and sudden reversals. If you trade the reaction, define risk first and stay disciplined with stops and partials.

Decision support only. Trade at your own risk.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Administration officials handed out a packet to the press at the event on “365 Wins in 365 Days”.

This has started out with the usual greatest hits

• Sleepy Joe Biden
• Greatest stock market in the world
• Stolen election
• We could have 20% GDP growth
• Hottest country in the world

He went on a long rant about Somalia and Somalians. Trump called Somalia “not even a country” and “just about the worst in the world” but so far there is nothing newsworthy. I’ll update live.

On tariffs:

• I don’t know what the Supreme Court is going to do
• A tariff is like a licence
• It’s possible that if we lose the case, we’re going to have to do the best we can to pay it back
• We’re waiting for that case anxiously

More:

• Getting along with leadership in Venezuela
• Says he wants to work with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado on her country’s future. Currently lieutenants of ousted president Nicolas Maduro are still leading the government
• Says the UN needs to continue
• The UK has two problems, immigration and energy
• I believe very strongly Norway controls the Nobel Peace Prize
• I settled eight wars
• I have lost a lot of respect for Norway
• Asked how far he is willing to go to acquire Greenland: Says ‘you’ll see’
• Doesn’t think he will have to go to Congress for tariff dividend checks
• We have a lot of meetings scheduled on Greenland in Davos
• Won’t go to G7 in Paris
• We will have to see what happens with Iran
• Asked about Panama Canal, said it was still ‘sortof’ on the table
• Something is going to happen (on Greenland) that is going to be good for everybody
• I think we will work something out where NATO is going to be very happy and we’re going to be very happy
• When I speak to Greenland, I’m sure they’ll be thrilled
• I think NATO’s been good

These final comments on Greenland could help the risk mood. He’s not talking about the breakout of NATO at least, even as European leaders are drawing red lines.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +6.1%
• Prices m/m -0.6% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior m/m +0.9%

Raw materials price index:

• Prices y/y +6.4% vs +6.4% prior
• Prices m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% prior

This is a nice dip and adds to the Canadian inflation mystery. Earlier this week, December Canadian CPI ran hot on the headline but the core number decelerated. Now we see there are less pressures in the pipeline in a welcome reprieve for the Bank of Canada.

In terms of details, the prices of energy and petroleum products (-7.2%) led the index’s monthly decrease in December with gasoline prices down 9.6%. The prices of lumber and other wood products declined 3.0% in December,
the largest month-over-month decline for the commodity group since
May 2025. It’s been a disastrous cycle for the wood-products business in Canada as high interest rates have crushed housing demand while the US imposed further tariffs.

Most commodity groups dragged down the index on the month but gold, silver and copper were notable lifts.

For background:

The Canadian Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) are closely watched inflation gauges that sit earlier in the pricing pipeline than consumer inflation. They help explain where cost pressures are coming from before they reach households.

The PPI measures the prices that Canadian producers receive for goods as they leave the factory gate. It tracks price changes for a wide range of manufactured products, such as motor vehicles, machinery, energy products, and food. Importantly, it excludes indirect taxes, transportation margins, and retail markups, making it a cleaner view of underlying producer-level pricing. The index reflects prices received by domestic producers, whether goods are sold at home or exported, and is influenced heavily by commodity prices, exchange rates, and global supply chains.

The RMPI goes one step further upstream. It measures the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, including crude oil, metals, lumber, grains, and other inputs. Because these prices tend to be volatile, the RMPI often moves sharply month to month and can act as an early warning signal for future changes in the PPI and, eventually, consumer inflation.

Together, the two reports help economists and markets assess cost pressures building in the economy, margins facing producers, and potential pass-through to consumer prices in the months ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Heads up: US president Trump due to speak in Davos later today
• US stocks extend losses as traders stay on the defensive ahead of Trump’s speech in Davos
• US futures pare slight gains awaiting Trump address in Davos
• Bessent says not concerned at all about any Treasuries selloff over Greenland
• ECB’s President Lagarde: The curtain is coming up on new world order
• Japanese bond yields come off the boil for the time being
• UK December CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expected
• UK industrial orders fall once again to start the new year
• Japan’s Rengo says the environment for wage talks this year is not so bad

Markets:

• AUD and NZD lead, USD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%
• US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.280%
• Gold up 2.0% to $4,856.67
• WTI crude oil up 0.1% to $60.41
• Bitcoin down 1.0% to $88,526

We’re almost there.

Trump’s much anticipated special address at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos is upon us. And that’s the main event that markets are waiting for today.

There was a bit of a hiccup earlier in the day when Air Force One had a “minor electrical issue” but Trump is scheduled to make it in time for his address at 1330 GMT in just a bit.

The waiting is keeping markets in a nervy mood, with some anxiousness creeping in during the past hour or so. Equities were slightly calmer earlier on in the session but are stepping lower now with US futures turning negative ahead of Trump’s address.

The mood isn’t helped by a reported qualms during a private meet in Davos where US commerce secretary Lutnick spoke. He was said to have lambasted European officials and the bloc in general, to the point where ECB president Lagarde couldn’t stand it and walked out mid-speech. So, there’s that to set the mood before Trump speaks later.

In the FX space, the dollar was steadier early on but is now starting to slip back lower again as the nerves circle back around. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1735 with the earlier low touching near 1.1700. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 157.77 as Japanese bonds find a bit of a respite after the intense rout in the early stages this week.

In the commodities space, gold continues to shine brightly as it pushes gains of roughly 2% and claiming fresh record highs once more as the rally today crosses over and above $4,800. Hot, hot, hot. 🔥

It’s all now on Trump’s address first and foremost before some bilateral meetings with European leaders. It is reported that he will at least have five sit downs with European officials in his time at Davos. So, let’s see if he will drop any TACO shells on the floor this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Market expected is for the month-to-month headline number to show a 0.2% increase and the year-to-year to come in around the 2.7% level, down 0.1% from last months 2.8% print but still well above the FOMC’s target rate. Any variance of 0.1% in either number is likely to see currency markets move strongly as it factors in changes in Fed rate cut expectations which have already seen some sharp moves in the last couple of weeks.

USDJPY has seen plenty of movement in the last few days and weeks and is shaping up to be another good trade on the data with it sitting near sensitive technical levels which could see stronger moves that other major pairs. It is sitting just above key trendline support on the Daily chart and a weaker number could see a strong break and big moves lower, whilst anything higher than the expected 0.2% or 2.7% could see it jump back into the range and challenge recent annual highs near 159.50.

Resistance 2: 161.99 – 2025 High

Resistance 1: 159.45 – 2026 High and Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 157.70 – Trendline Support

Support 2: 154.50 – Long-Term Trendline Support

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The post Trade USDJPY on the US PCE Price Index Data Release first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The monthly order book balance rose to -30 in January, which marks a slight improvement from the -32 estimate in December. That’s the best reading since September but it still points to extended weakness in the industrial sector. For some context, the index remains well below its long-run average of -14.

The only bright side is that business optimism is seen improving to -19 from -31 previously. But on the prices side, there is more discouraging news for the BOE. The survey’s gauge of expected prices jumped to 29 (previously 19), which is the highest since February 2023. And that was when the UK got a price shock amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so this is something to be mindful of as price pressures remain a concern.

CBI notes that existing conditions for manufacturers are “extremely tough”. Adding that:

“At the same time, cost pressures – from rising wages, high energy prices and taxes – are squeezing margins and weighing on competitiveness, pushing firms to plan price rises even as demand remains subdued.”

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The waiting game continues as the US Supreme Court released two decisions today but neither were on tariffs. This means it could be until at least Feb 20 before we get a decision.

For the legal fans out there, here is an LLM-generated review of the two decisions today.

Berk v. Choy

The Court held that Delaware’s requirement for an “affidavit of merit” in medical malpractice suits does not apply in federal court. Petitioner Harold Berk’s suit had been dismissed for failing to provide an expert’s attestation of the claim’s validity as required by state law. Writing for the majority, Justice Barrett concluded that Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 8 governs the information required at the outset of litigation, and because it only requires a “short and plain statement of the claim,” it displaces contrary state evidentiary hurdles.

Ellingburg v. United States

The Court unanimously ruled that restitution under the Mandatory Victims Restitution Act (MVRA) is criminal punishment. Holsey Ellingburg challenged the retroactive application of the MVRA to his pre-enactment crime as a violation of the Ex Post Facto Clause. Justice Kavanaugh noted the MVRA’s text, which labels restitution a “penalty” and integrates it into criminal sentencing, makes its punitive nature “abundantly clear”. This classification ensures that restitution is subject to constitutional protections against retroactive punishment.

There are no scheduled decision days, though they can be announced with 1-3 days notice. Tomorrow the Supreme Court will hear arguments on Trump vs Cook, the case about firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he will be in attendance but it will likely be months before that case is decided.

The tariffs case is not expected to take long with a decision in January or February. However the calendar is now working against it with the court preparing for a four-week recess at the end of this week. That would push the earliest possible decision date to Feb 20 if one isn’t quickly announced for this week

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.