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President Donald Trump has continued to make large fixed-income purchases this autumn, adding at least $82 million in municipal and corporate bonds, according to newly released ethics disclosures.

Info via a Bloomberg report.

The filings, posted by the US Office of Government Ethics after the government shutdown ended, show Trump bought debt issued by major corporates including Netflix, Boeing, Meta, UnitedHealth, Home Depot, Broadcom and Intel. Some of these firms have been directly affected by his administration’s policy decisions, including Intel, in which the government recently took an almost 10% stake.

Trump also accumulated municipal debt from cities, school districts, utilities and hospitals across the US. The disclosures, dated Oct. 17 and Oct. 20, report transactions only in broad dollar ranges, as required for federal officials. Trump did not report any asset sales.

Trump’s approach remains a marked departure from predecessors, who typically divested or transferred assets into blind trusts.

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While the disclosures don’t shift policy, they renew scrutiny over potential conflicts and may add noise around companies like Intel, where government involvement intersects with market pricing and industrial policy.

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From the weekend, more of this sort of thing ….

• Fed Kugler dirt: Filings show Kugler made dozens of banned trades before key Fed meetings

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Economic growth in Japan for Q3 2025 is expected to be economic contraction according to the survey of analysts reported.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s new government is preparing a stimulus package worth more than ¥17 trillion (about $110 billion), according to reporting by the Nikkei on Sunday. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama disclosed the scale of the plan after meeting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office in October and has pushed for an aggressive response to rising living costs and a loss of economic momentum.

The package is expected to channel spending into cost-of-living relief and targeted investment in strategic sectors, including artificial intelligence and semiconductors — areas central to Tokyo’s long-term growth strategy and its push to strengthen supply-chain resilience. The Cabinet is expected to formally sign off on the plan on Friday.

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A package of this size could lean mildly supportive for Japanese risk assets. More fiscal looseness will tend to cap near-term yen strength.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand food prices fell 0.3 percent in October

• compares with -0.4% in September

• +4.7% y/y

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The New Zealand Food Price Index (FPI) is a measure of the changes in the average price of food items sold in New Zealand.

• calculated and published monthly by Statistics New Zealand
• FPI makes up around 19% of the kiwi CPI
• the FPI tracks the prices of a basket of food items that represent the typical spending patterns of New Zealand households
• the FPI is an important indicator of inflation in New Zealand, as food prices account for a significant portion of household expenditure

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BusinessNZ New Zealand Performance of Services Index for October 2025 improves to 48.7

• from September’s 48.3
• this is the 20th month in a row in contraction

PSI’s sub-components all below the breakeven 50 mark

• all below
  their long-term averages
• new orders index 49.5, but is farthest below its long-term
  average
• activity/sales index rose to 48.9, its
  best outcome since January 2025 and its second-best
  month since February 2024
• employment index
  rose to 48.8, best since March

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke with Fox News on Sunday.

• rare earths deal with China will “hopefully” be done by Thanksgiving
• confident China will honor agreements on rare earths

Is this the best he can do? Hoping and expressing confidence.

We all know it’s a clown show right now. The hope for investors is some sort of Fed put if it all falls apart. Right now a December 10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut looks in doubt:

• four voting Fed officials (Collins, Musalem, Goolsbee and Schmid — who dissented against the October cut) are now openly signalling they are not looking for another reduction in December

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

Indicative rates only, little changed from late Friday

• EUR/USD 1.1621
• USD/JPY 154.55
• GBP/USD 1.3171
• USD/CHF 0.7941
• USD/CAD 1.4022
• AUD/USD 0.6532
• NZD/USD 0.5678

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a few low-tier releases like the final French and Spanish inflation reports and the second estimate of the Eurozone Q3 GDP. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction is likely to be fairly muted.

In the American session, we don’t have anything other than a couple of hawkish Fed speakers. The market pricing is now showing a 50/50 chance of a cut in December, so the data will have the final say. I don’t think the September NFP expected to be released next week is going to matter much if it’s soft given that it’s old data, but a strong report might be taken as meaningful because the market could think that conditions were already getting better in September before the two rate cuts.

So, I think the November NFP is going to have the final say, which will hopefully get released just before the FOMC meeting in December (we won’t get the November CPI in time).

Central bank speakers:

• 10:30 GMT/05:30 ET – ECB’s Elderson (neutral – voter)
• 14:20 GMT/09:20 ET – Fed’s Bostic (hawkish – non voter)
• 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
• 15:05 GMT/10:05 ET – Fed’s Schmid (hawkish – voter)
• 19:30 GMT/14:30 ET – Fed’s Logan (hawkish – voter in 2026)
• 20:20 GMT/15:20 ET – Fed’s Bostic (hawkish – non voter)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• ICYMI: China home prices steepest fall in a year as industrial, investment data weaken
• FX intervention – Indian central bank likely selling U.S. dollars to support rupee
• U.S. approves potential US$330m fighter-jet parts sale to Taiwan
• Oil surges after drone strike hits Russian Novorossiysk terminal, heightening supply risks
• China say stabilisation taking hold despite weak investment and industrial slowdown in Oct
• Amazon, Microsoft back bill curbing Nvidia’s China chip exports to secure U.S. AI supply
• China Oct Retail Sale (YoY) 2.9% (exp 2.7%) & Industrial Production (YoY) 4.9% (exp 5.5%)
• US, South Korea unveil deal with major investments, tariff cuts and defence expansion
• Intervention: South Korea won-stabilising measures after currency sinks to seven-month low
• China October new house prices -2.2% y/y (prior -2.2% also)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0825 (vs. estimate at 7.0964)
• EUR/GBP above 0.8852, a 2.5 year high as UK ditches income tax rate hike plans
• Japan’s Takaichi backs away from minimum-wage target amid pushback from regional firms
• UBS: China’s AI power build-out (5–6GW) is modest vs U.S. (40–45GW), signalling no bubble.
• China – Evergrande Property Services invites updated bids as liquidation process advances
• Japan’s Economy Minister Kiuchi says a weak yen can push up CPI through import costs
• More on UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget
• GBP is taking a hit after the report that Starmer is going to drop plan to hike tax rates
• US media report Trump preparing to back down on some tariffs in order to lower food prices
• UK PM Starmer and fin min Reeves drop plan to hike income tax rates
• MUFG: Policy divergence supports AUD/NZD as RBA holds firm and RBNZ eyes more cuts
• Citi: September payrolls near, October data likely pushed to December
• US/Swiss talks very positive, tariff & barrier reductions expected pending Trump approval
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Rough day in stock markets
• New Zealand October 2025 Manufacturing PMI jumps to 51.4 (prior 50.1, revised from 49.9)
• Biggest daily decline for stock markets since October 10
• RBNZ’s Gai says global tensions, trade shifts cloud outlook. Needs clearer policy signals.

GBP

There was important news out of the UK, with the Financial Times reporting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise UK income tax rates just weeks before the 26 November budget. The government faces a fiscal gap of roughly £30 billion and will now be scrambling for alternative revenue sources. The pound took a hit on the headlines, with EUR/GBP pushing to a 2½-year high.

NZD

The New Zealand dollar outperformed during the session. The lift came partly from data showing the October Performance of Manufacturing Index jumped to 51.4 (from a revised 50.1 for September), but most of the attention centred on the RBNZ’s confirmation that it will ease mortgage loan-to-value restrictions on 1 December.

• For owner-occupiers, the share of new lending allowed with an LVR above 80% will rise to 25% (from 20%).

• For investors, the LVR limit at >70% will rise to 10% (from 5%).

Oil

Oil prices also surged more than 2% after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged an oil depot at Russia’s Novorossiysk port — a site handling around 2.2 million bpd of crude and condensate. Analysts said the strike underscored persistent supply risks tied to both Ukrainian attacks and tightening Western sanctions.

Other items of interest:

A senior U.S. official said trade talks with Switzerland were “very positive,” with Washington considering a deal to cut tariffs on Swiss imports pending President Trump’s approval.

The New York Times reported that the Trump administration is preparing tariff exemptions aimed at reducing food prices, following earlier reports this week that the White House is looking to ease cost-of-living pressures.

China’s property slump deepened, with new-home prices in 70 cities falling 0.45% m/m in October, the steepest drop in a year, and resale values sliding 0.66%, the fastest decline in 13 months. The four-year downturn continues to weigh heavily on household sentiment and consumption. Industrial output rose 4.9% YoY, missing forecasts, retail sales gained 2.9%, and fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% YTD. The unemployment rate slipped to 5.1%.

The People’s Bank of China set the daily USD/CNY fix at its strongest since October 2024, a signal aimed at supporting consumption by making imports cheaper. The yuan briefly hit a one-year high on exporter dollar-selling before easing post-data.

In geopolitics and markets, the United States and South Korea unveiled a sweeping economic and security agreement featuring major tariff reductions and hundreds of billions of dollars in Korean investment. Meanwhile, South Korea’s FX authorities vowed to stabilise the won after it fell to a seven-month low. Dealers suspect authorities have already intervened via dollar-selling.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon and Microsoft have publicly backed the proposed Gain AI Act — legislation that would restrict Nvidia’s ability to export advanced chips to China — marking a rare policy split between the tech giants and one of their largest suppliers.

Crypto extended its losses.

Asia-Pac
stocks followed Wall Street lower:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -1.81%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -1.26%
• Shanghai
  Composite -0.16%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -1.45%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Berkshire Hathaway trims stake in Apple, buys Google – filing
• Fed’s Miran: Recent data has made the case for a rate cut even stronger
• The September non-farm payrolls report will finally be released on Nov 20
• Fed’s Logan says she would have preferred to hold rates steady in Oct
• Fed’s Schmid: Further rate cuts won’t patch job market cracks
• Michael Saylor: We will be reporting on bitcoin buys on Monday
• Canada Sept manufacturing sales +3.3% vs +2.8% expected
• Walmart shares fall as CEO steps down

Markets:

• Gold down $91 to $4079
• WTI crude oil up $1.23 to $59.97
• US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.15%
• S&P 500 flat
• Bitcoin down $3896 to $94,906
• NZD leads, CHF lags

Implied odds of a Fed cut in December were at 66% early this week but fell yesterday and continued to slide today. They’re now at just 40% despite no real change in Fed commentary. There are still some vociferous hawks and doves but nothing has really changed on communication. It’s like the market finally went back and listened to what Powell said on October 30.

In any case, it was another choppy day. US equity futures were deeply red and stocks slumped hard at the open, with the Nasdaq falling 1.5%. But the dip buying was aggressive from the bottom, led by Nvidia and it recovered and more. There were solid gains midway though the day that eventually faded into a flat close. Micron, Nvidia and Microsoft were among the biggest winners while Netflix and Paypal were laggards.

In FX, USD/JPY followed the path of equities as the pair slumped 75 pips in short order only to completely recover. The pair is near the best levels since January.

The euro rose early but couldn’t get above yesterday’s high of 1.1655 and sagged back to 1.1620.

Cable was bounced around by a report that there won’t be any income tax hikes after all but that weighed heavily on gilts and the pound was down 20 pips on the day in very choppy trade.

Commodity currencies made small gains.

In commodity markets, oil and gold headed in opposite directions. Crude rallied to finish roughly flat on the week while gold fell $92 but still managed to finish the week $80 higher.

A big loser on the day and week was bitcoin, which is trading near the lowest since May and fell nearly 4% on the day. It had plumbed lows near $94K early in the day and bounced with risk sentiment but the sellers returned late to carve out new lows. It will be under the microscope over the weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We’ve got a jobs report on the economic calendar.

The BLS announced that it will release the Sept 2025 employment report on November 20, that’s next Thursday at 8:30 am ET.

It’s ancient history at this point but it’s a start.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration must be seeing polling numbers around inflation hurting. They’re playing some defense lately and now the administration is lowering or removing tariffs on:

• Coffee
• Bananas
• Tomatoes
• Beef

The first two make sense because they don’t grow in the US and the third one is seasonal but the fourth one is puzzling. It’s good new for Argentina though.

A hint on the inflation focus came from a Trump tweet earlier:

“Cost, and INFLATION, were far higher under the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration, than they are now. In fact, costs under the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION are tumbling down, helped greatly by gasoline and ENERGY. Affordability is a lie when used by the Dems. It is a complete CON JOB. Thanksgiving costs are 25% lower this year than last, under Crooked Joe! We are the Party of Affordability!”

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.