Articles

• Fed’s Williams: Downside risks to employment have increased
• US November S&P Global services flash PMI 55.0 vs 54.6 expected
• US November final UMich consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 50.5 expected
• US real weekly earnings for September -0.1% versus -0.3% in August
• Canada September retail sales -0.7% vs -0.7% expected
• Putin: Has received the US plan for peace.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remains at 4.2%
• BOJ’s Masu: BOJ is close to decision to raise rates
• October CPI has been canceled. November CPI will be released on November 18
• ECB’s Muller: Seems we have inflation close enough to 2% for foreseeable future
• US wholesale sales for August 0.1% versus 0.4% estimate
• Fed’s Logan says should hold rates ‘for a time’ to assess
• Fed’s Collins: September jobs data was mixed
• Trump: Ukraine is losing land. Thursday is an appropriate deadline for Ukraine plan

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 1.0%
• Gold down $13 to $4060
• WTI crude oil down $1.03 to $57.97
• US 10-year yields down 3.9 bps to 4.065%
• Bitcoin down 2.6% to $84,926
• JPY leads, CHF lags

The mood darkened deeper early on Friday with stock futures sliding and bitcoin falling as low as $80,555. The turnaround initially came on comments from NY Fed President Williams, who indicated he was inclined to support a rate cut again in December. Williams is at the core of the Fed and isn’t likely to go go against Powell so the thinking was that this was a deliberate dovish message and market pricing from about a 30% chance of a cut to 60%. The Fed blackout starts at midnight next Friday so it’s going to be an interesting week, including ADP employment.

Despite that shift, the optimism didn’t initially last. Stock markets gave back early gains and fell into negative territory, though it was extremely choppy.

The second lift came when the White House floated selling Nvidia chips to China once again. That added some big bids to equities and helped Nvidia pare losses. At one point, stocks were significantly higher than the close but there was some selling in the final two hours, likely in part to skepticism about this report and lingering worries about an AI bubble. That tees up another lively week next week.

In FX, the message continues to be far less worry about the economy. Reports from The Gap and Ross Stores included favorable commentary on consumers and both shares rose 8% to be among the leaders. That continues the message from WMT earnings a day earlier. On net, the moves in FX were mostly unnotable this week with some mild EUR weakness and USD strength.

The exception is the yen, which continued to be beaten up this week and hit a record low against the euro and a long-term low vs the pound. USD/JPY intervention talk has begun and a BOJ official today made some hawkish comments. That helped to reverse the rally today and the pair fell a full cent.

After being a market darling for many weeks, gold continues to consolidate around $4100 but it’s been volatile within its range. On the more-bearish side, oil significantly slackened as Trump pushes a new peace plan for Ukraine with a ‘deadline’ for next Thursday.

Have a great weekend. I will be in London at the Finance Magnates London Summit next week. Stop in and say high if you’re in the neighbourhood.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The President of the United States judges himself — seemingly every day — on the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

He is a person that can’t stand to see stock markets go down, even for a brief period. He has utterly convinced himself — and not entirely without reason — that American progress is whatever number is on the index, preferably with non-stop record highs.

Just after Liberation Day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared “it’s main street’s turn now” but that lasted about three days before the long, slow walkback on tariffs began. Notably, the earliest tariff U-turns were hinted at by Trump in tweets and likely front-run.

This is nothing new, I’ve been writing about it since Covid when Trump signed a copy of an intraday reversal on March 13, 2020 at the peak of virus panic. I wrote about it many times when he was running for re-election again.

It’s the north star of trading in the Trump era.

Now we get the White House floating that they’re thinking about letting Nvidia sell chips to China. This was an idea that was also floated during China negotiations and you have to wonder if it wasn’t always in the works. Or if it’s a tactic to halt market slumps. If it’s the later, you can only float it so many times before it doesn’t work any more.

None of that undermines the idea that Trump can’t stand to see the market go down and that dynamic will be increasingly important as we head towards the midterms in just under a year.

Of course, no man can control the market and covid showed that nature can inflict some real pain (at least for awhile) but Trump has plenty of ammunition with tariff waivers now and he’s going to try and stack the Fed. That’s a powerful mix.

Update: In terms of it being a deliberate leak to turn markets, Reuters sources are now also out with the same report. This is obviously a strategy; the only question is whether they mean it or not.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We have been down this road before, but Russian Pres. Putin is saying:

• He received the US plan for Ukraine.
• Think they can be a basis for final resolution.
• Text was not discussed with Russia.
• Says that Ukraine is against the plan.

Russia is ready for a peaceful resolution but the details of the plan need to be discussed.

Earlier, Ukraine Zelenskyy said to his country:

The country is facing “one of the most difficult moments in our history” as its strongest ally pressures it into accepting a deal with the nation that has spent eleven years trying to destroy it.

“Now the pressure on Ukraine is one of the most difficult. Ukraine may soon face an impossible choice — either the loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner. Either the [Trump administration’s] 28-point plan, or an extremely difficult winter — the hardest yet — along with even greater risks. It would mean a life without freedom, without dignity, without justice, and trusting the one who has already attacked us twice. They will expect an answer from us.”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Like the US employment report, the BLS is saying that the CPI report for October will NOT be released, and that the November report will be released on December 18. That is after the December FOMC rate decision on December 10. CPI

The CPI report will not include a one month change due to the October data missing.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is saying:

• Ukraine is losing land
• Russian Pres. Putin does not want to get more land
• Thursday is an appropriate deadline for Ukraine plan

Meanwhile:

• Ukraine, France, Germany, and UK are reportedly working on a counterproposal to US peace plan.

The proposed 28-point peace plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine was drafted by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian officials

1. Territorial & Border Settlements

The plan proposes freezing the conflict largely along current front lines, requiring Ukraine to accept the de facto loss of territory:

• Crimea & Donbas: The U.S. would recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian territory.

• Frozen Front Lines: Control over the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions would be frozen along the current line of contact.

• Demilitarized Zone: A neutral, demilitarized buffer zone would be established in parts of the Donetsk region currently held by Ukraine.

• Troop Withdrawal: Ukrainian forces would be required to withdraw from specific contested areas to establish these zones.

2. NATO and Military Neutrality

A central pillar of the plan is the formal neutralization of Ukraine:

• No NATO Membership: Ukraine would be required to amend its constitution to renounce any future NATO membership.

• NATO Stance: Conversely, NATO would formally agree not to admit Ukraine into the alliance.

• Troop Limitations: The Ukrainian Armed Forces would be capped at 600,000 personnel (a reduction from current wartime levels).

• No Foreign Troops: The plan explicitly bans the stationing of NATO or other foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.

3. Security Guarantees

In exchange for neutrality, Ukraine would receive “reliable security guarantees” from the United States:

• The Guarantee: The U.S. would commit to a decisive response (including renewed sanctions and potential military action) if Russia invades Ukraine again.

• Conditions: These guarantees would be voided if Ukraine were to attack Russian territory or launch unprovoked missile strikes.

• European Air Support: While troops would be banned from Ukraine, European fighter jets would reportedly be stationed in Poland to provide a defensive umbrella.

4. Economic & Reconstruction Measures

The plan includes a massive economic component designed to incentivize both Kyiv and Moscow:

• Reconstruction Fund: A $100 billion fund would be created to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction, funded largely by frozen Russian assets.

• Sanctions Relief: Russia would see Western sanctions lifted in stages and would be reintegrated into the global economy, including a potential invitation to rejoin the G8.

• EU Path: While NATO is off the table, the plan affirms Ukraine’s eligibility for European Union membership and offers expedited access to European markets.

Current Reactions (November 2025)

• Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly stated he is ready to discuss the proposal to end the “suffering,” calling it a U.S. “vision.” However, private reports suggest Ukrainian officials view the terms—specifically the territorial concessions and NATO ban—as “absurd” and near-capitulation.

• Russia: The Kremlin has not publicly endorsed the plan in full, but Russian officials have reportedly expressed optimism, noting that their core security concerns (neutrality and territory) are being addressed.

• Europe: European leaders have reportedly expressed frustration at being sidelined during the drafting of the proposal, with concerns about the security implications for NATO’s eastern flank.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prelim was 50.5
• Prior was 53.6
• Conditions 51.1 vs 58.6 prior
• Expectations 51.0 vs 50.3 prior

The UMich numbers are unreliable and haven’t tracked consumer spending for a long time.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 1.3% (revised from 1.4%)
• Wholesale sales for the month of August 0.1% versus 0.4% estimate.
• Wholesale inventories 0.0% versus -0.2% estimate.
• Inventory to sales ratio 1.28 months versus 1.28 months last month.The ratio is near the low levels going back to midyear 2022

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 54.8
• Manufacturing vs 52.0 exp
• Prior manufacturing 52.5
• Composite PMI vs 54.5 prior
• Prior composite 54.6

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Maybe the consumer isn’t doing so badly after all?

The Gap CEO Richard Dickson said in the earnings call that despite “widely reported macroeconomic pressure on the low-income consumer,” Gap Inc. saw “growth across all income cohorts.”

Shares are up 8% premarket.

Yesterday, Walmart was also fairly upbeat on the consumer and the holiday season.

The Gap did highlight some trade-down from higher-income consumers, similar to Target shoppers going to Walmart.

“More high-income consumers [are] choosing Gap,” Dickson said.

A major indicator of consumer health is their willingness to pay full price versus waiting for sales. Both Old Navy and Gap saw average unit sales rise and lower discounting.

On the downside, there could be some price hikes in the pipeline. The company said tariffs negatively impacted gross margin by an estimated 190 basis points in Q3.

Similarly, Ross Stores shares are up 3.5% in the pre-market and the call was constructive after the company reported a 7% rise in comp sales.

Management explicitly stated they did not see a “trade-down”, higher traffic and larger baskets.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +1.0%
• October preliminary retail sales: “relatively unchanged”
• Ex-autos +0.2% vs -0.5% expected
• Prior ex-autos +0.7%
• Ex-autos and gas % vs +1.1% prior

There were indications of strong retail sales in October, including those tied to the Blue Jays’ World Series run. Walmart was also upbeat on Canadian consumer spending in Q3 and Canadian Tire was “cautiously optimistic” and spoke about “admirable resilience” in Canadian shoppers, including in lower-income cohorts. One lagging area could be ecommerce given the Canada Post strike.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month -0.3% (August)
• September real weekly earnings month-to-month -0.1%
• YoY 0.8% versus 0.7% last month

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• ECB’s de Guindos: Risks to growth are balanced
• Dovish hold, or hawkish cut: that is the question
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• UK November flash services PMI 50.5 vs 52.0 expected
• Eurozone November flash services PMI 53.1 vs 52.8 expected
• Germany November flash manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs 49.5 expected
• ECB’s Lagarde: Will continue adjust policy as needed to ensure inflation remains at target
• France November flash services PMI 50.8 vs 48.4 expected
• France November business confidence 98 vs 100 expected
• Japan Finance Minister: Will pursue a responsible fiscal policy, not just a proactive one
• UK October retail sales -1.1% vs +0.0% m/m expected
• FX option expiries for 21 November 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?
• Takaichi: Japan may issue bonds for stimulus but total JGB supply to stay below last year

The main highlight of the session was the release of the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The Eurozone PMIs were good, but the UK ones were soft. The UK Retail Sales data, released before the PMIs, was also weak across the board.

The data didn’t change much in terms of market pricing as the ECB is still seen on hold, while the BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps at the upcoming meeting in December.

Another notable news were the comments from the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama which gave the JPY a boost as she said that they would pursue a responsible fiscal policy and that total bond issuance this fiscal year would be below last fiscal year’s.

Lastly, we heard from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB Vice President de Guindos, but both of them just reaffirmed the central bank’s neutral stance.

In the markets, the risk sentiment remains on edge with the US equities and bitcoin trading near the lows of the day. The US dollar is higher on the day, while precious metals like gold and silver are down.

In the American session, we get the Canadian
Retail Sales data, the Flash US PMIs and the final UMich consumer
sentiment. The most market-moving release should be the Flash US PMIs.
In fact, the BoC is now on the sidelines and a poor or strong retail
sales report is not going to change that. The final UMich data is rarely
market-moving as the market likes fresh information i.e. the
preliminary figures.

The US Flash PMIs could be
market-moving, although I don’t see how they could change things
materially at this point unless they are very strong or very weak. The
market is pricing roughly a 30% chance of a December cut, which makes it
unlikely but keeps some hopes alive in case other data shows weakness
or Fed members signal a cut before the blackout period starting next
Saturday.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.