Articles

• Bitcoin seen back in six figures in 2026 as ETF and tokenisation themes gather pace
• Ackman pitches radical SPARC deal to Elon Musk to take SpaceX public (Tesla-linked route)
• Japan intervention warning nudges yen stronger, USD/JPY retreats (higher AUD/JPY forecast)
• Ethereum puts security ahead of speed as zkEVMs move toward institutional readiness.
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate at 7.0572 (vs. estimate 7.0407)
• Oil prices support from tighter US sanctions enforcement and rising Middle East tensions.
• Apple readies AI glasses and smart AirPods in next wearable push
• Westpac sees RBA holding firm through 2026 as inflation risks linger. Cuts seen in 2027.
• Israel warns US Iran missile drills could mask strike preparations (watch oil, folks!)
• India’s stock market enters deep freeze, record low volatility as options boom hits a wall
• Fed’s Hammack pushes back on cuts, says inflation still too high
• Monday open indicative forex prices, 22 December 2025, and a look at what’s coming today
• Disastrous day: The yen is a big problem for Japanese officials

Japanese markets were the main movers as the week got underway. The Nikkei 225 rose alongside other regional equities, benefiting in particular from the earlier slide in the yen, which boosted exporters by making Japanese stocks cheaper in foreign-currency terms. Japanese government bond yields also edged higher, often read as a sign of stability concerns, but the move was largely shrugged off by markets today.

The yen later clawed back some ground, with USD/JPY retracing from early highs around 157.75 to lows near 157.25. JPY bids were helped by verbal intervention from Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura. Mimura said that authorities are “concerned” about recent foreign-exchange moves, describing them as “one-sided and sharp,” and warned that officials would take “appropriate actions” against excessive volatility. The language was familiar, but the timing, so soon after last week’s central bank meeting, was enough to prompt some trimming of short-yen positions.

Elsewhere in FX, major pairs traded in relatively narrow ranges. Both the AUD and NZD ground out modest gains against the USD.

Oil prices found some early support after a renewed uptick in geopolitical risk. Over the weekend, the United States intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker, while tensions between Israel and Iran remained elevated, the two news items together helping rebuild a modest risk premium in crude.

In US policy news, the Wall Street Journal reported on an interview/podcast with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who pushed back against recent dovish expectations. Hammack said she favours holding rates steady for several months and remains more concerned about inflation than labour-market weakness, adding that November’s CPI likely understated true inflation pressures.

Corporate chatter included an interesting social-media post from hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who outlined a proposal for taking SpaceX public without Wall Street banks or IPO fees. The idea would give Tesla shareholders priority access to the deal, framing it as a more democratic alternative to a traditional IPO.

In commodities, spot silver surged 3% to a fresh record high above US$69, while gold prices also rose, pushing back toward US$4,400.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

Do be aware that many wholesale market participants have closed now for the holiday period. This is partially because they have closed for the holiday period (d’uh) and partially because others have closed so liquidity and market tradability have diminished. If you are a retail trader it’ll pay to take extra care right through now until January 5, the absence of the other time frame (OTF) until then will make trading more choppy. If that’s your bag, great, but if not your time may be better spent and capital preserved for ammo for the new year.

Coverage on investingLive will diminish until January 5. We’ll still be around, but not quite so much.

After all that, early indications, not too much change from late Friday is showing.

• EUR/USD 1.1719
• USD/JPY 157.69
• GBP/USD 1.3391
• USD/CHF 0.7947
• USD/CAD 1.3795
• AUD/USD 0.6611
• NZD/USD 0.5750

As for the calendar, its nearly empty. Even that People’s Bank of China rate setting is a non-event, more on this below:

China’s Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) were held steady in November 2025, , marking the sixth consecutive month without a change

• the one-year LPR at 3.0%
• and the five-year LPR (for mortgages) at 3.5%

Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10 basis points in May.

A look at the past changes in the LPR, since early 2022:

China’s main policy rate is now the reverse repo rate, currently at 1.4% for the 7-day.

The 7-day rate serves as a key policy benchmark, influencing other lending rates like the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs). The PBOC uses these open market operations to inject or absorb funds, influencing interbank lending rates.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Japan’s Katayama: Alarmed over currency moves, will take appropriate action
• Canada October retail sales -0.2% vs 0.0% expected
• ECB’s Lane on why the ECB is cutting into a sticky-inflation slowing economy
• US November existing home sales 4.13m vs 4.15m expected
• December final UMich consumer sentiment 52.9 vs 53.4 expected
• Fed’s Williams: CPI data had some distortions, may have been pushed down a bit
• Fed’s Waller had ‘a strong interview’ but the market isn’t buying it

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags
• Gold up $6 to $4337
• WTI crude oil up 54-cents to $56.54
• US 10-year yields down 3.3 bps to 4.15%
• S&P 500 up 0.9%

The US dollar made some modest headway against the rest of the FX market today bu the big movement was in the yen as USD/JPY rose 220 pips and EUR/JPY hit another record high. The jump started after an initial dip on the BOJ decision. It looks like sellers were hoping the hike would cool the pair and then when it didn’t, it was off to the races. The move was large enough that it prompted some tough intervention talk from finance minister Katayama. That didn’t little to stop it as a quick 40 pips dip was almost immediately bought. The bids continued right until the end of the day as the pair closed at the highs.

In terms of news, the Canadian retail sales headline was soft but the advance number for November was strong at +1.2%. That led to some early USD/JPY selling down to 1.3760 but it reversed later and the pair finished near 1.3800 with the loonie among the laggards.

Flows were dominant as we wind down the year so it’s tough to draw any conclusions.

In equities, it was quad witching and a record estimated $7.1 trillion opex. I thought that might lock up trading but there were some good gains. Eminis ultimately ended just below 6800, which would have been a natural options magnet. Nvidia was a leader along with some travel and chip memory names. Nike was a laggard falling 10% as tariffs eroded margins.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 4.10m
• Home sales change +0.5% vs +1.2% prior

Shares of home builders have been beaten up this week on poor earnings and even-weaker forecasts for the months ahead.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prelim was 53.3
• Prior was 51.0
• Conditions 50.4 vs 50.7 prelim
• Expectations 54.6 vs 55.0 prelim
• 10year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prelim (prior was 4.5%)
• 5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.4%)

In the preliminary report, the big surprise was the drop in inflation expectations. Now that tends to correlate with gasoline prices so I’d take it with a grain of salt but the Fed will see it as validation for cutting rates, particularly when combined with the softer CPI report this week.

All that said, the market is seeing just a 20% chance of a January rate cut and just over 50% for March.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -0.7% (revised to -0.9%)
• Ex-autos -0.6% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior ex-autos -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)
• Core sales -0.5%
• Advance November reading +1.2%
• Autos sales +0.6% vs -2.9% prior

The surprise story of post-Liberation Day Canada has been just how strong retail sales have been. Unemployment has been creeping up and housing is in a terrible slump in much of the country but consumer keep on spending.

This report is a softer but the advance November reading is very strong.

The notes on October show the largest decrease to core retail sales came from food and beverage retailers, with beer, wine and liquor retailers down 10.6% though it may have been affected by a strike in British Columbia.

Sales were also down at clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods retailers (-0.7%) and health and personal care retailers (-0.3%) in October

The headline chart doesn’t look great but the underlying numbers have been good.

RBC also publishes a report based on its credit card data and it has core sales up 1.1% on a three-month rolling average.

“Early signs for Q4 remain positive with spending momentum holding up
despite elevated borrowing costs, and still cautious consumer sentiment,” RBC said.

My sense is that retirees are those near retirement are driving much of the spending. Despite home prices losing value since 2022, they’ve still generated incredible returns over the past decade and that’s keeping that cohort spending. For younger generations, unemployment has risen but there are still enough jobs to keep the consumer buoyant.

Looking to 2026, I expect consumers to

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY set to post biggest daily gain in a month, eyes on December highs
• BOJ governor Ueda says the possibility of further rate hikes will be data-dependent
• BOJ governor Ueda says rate hikes will continue if economy develops as per projections
• S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Is Santa Claus coming to town?
• Interest rate expectations for the Fed remain the most dovish among major central banks
• ECB policymaker Rehn tries to keep the door open for rate cuts
• UK retail sales disappoint on expectations with another slump in November

Markets:

• USD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities little changed; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%
• US 10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 4.151%
• Gold down 0.2% to $4,325.23
• WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $56.09
• Bitcoin up 3.0% to $88,019

There wasn’t too much in European morning trade today, with the day being the supposed last “real” trading day for the year. Come next week, the Christmas and New Year break will overshadow everything else and that should lead to thinner liquidity conditions until we wrap up the year.

But for today, there was some decent action – particularly with the Japanese yen as the currency tumbled after the BOJ policy decision. The central bank raised its short-term policy rate by 25 bps to 0.75%, marking the highest in 30 years. However, the yen fell across the board in what is a sell the fact move.

USD/JPY already climbed up to 156.00 after the decision but extended gains as BOJ governor Ueda did not offer too much certainty of when the next rate hike will be. He did drop hints that it could be in March but as we all know, the threshold to trigger such conditions is very much higher than the one needed for today.

As such, USD/JPY also jumped up to break the early December highs in a push above 157.00 with the pair now up over 1% to 157.30 levels – its highest in nearly a month.

Besides that, the dollar held steadier in the major currencies space with the euro and pound keeping lightly changed against the greenback. The same as well for the loonie and aussie, with the FX looking rather dull outside of the yen today. That despite UK retail sales disappointing on economic woes, not being enough to do much to change the sterling outlook for now.

In other markets, European indices were relatively muted in closing out the week while US futures are pointing to a solid jump in tech shares once more. S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% with Nasdaq futures up 1.4% as investors continue the relief rally after the US CPI report yesterday.

In the commodities space, gold is not showing much interest alongside silver as precious metals continue to hang near the highs for the year. A consolidation of gains ahead of the holiday period perhaps? Meanwhile, Bitcoin is posting a decent bounce back to around $88,000 but the technical picture remains challenging with the cryptocurrency poised to end the year lower for the first time since 2022.

To those taking off for the holidays, I wish you a pleasant break and an enjoyable one at that. Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year to everyone, in case we don’t cross paths again on the server for the year. Have a good one!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 22/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Rally After Weaker CPI Print – Nasdaq up 1.4%

US equity markets advanced overnight as softer inflation data buoyed risk sentiment. The latest CPI print came in at its lowest level since 2021, though analysts caution that recent government shutdown disruptions may have skewed the figures. All three of the major indices closed in positive territory, led by tech stocks, which rebounded from yesterday’s drop. The Dow Jones added 0.14% to finish at 47,951, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.79% to 6,774, while the Nasdaq outperformed, rising 1.38% to 23,066. US Treasury yields eased, with the 2-year down 2.1 bps to 3.462% and the 10-year slipping 3.1 bps to 4.122%, reflecting expectations for a slower pace of tightening. The US Dollar Index ended slightly firmer at 98.44, up 0.08%, after an initial post-CPI dip. The Bank of England delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps rate cut, while the European Central Bank held policy steady. Oil prices were marginally higher as traders continued to weigh supply risks heading into 2026. Brent rose 0.12% to $59.75, while WTI gained 0.23% to $56.08. Gold briefly spiked to its highest level since late October following the CPI release, but settled lower, down 0.15% at $4,331.16 at the close.

Another Busy Day to Close Out the Trading Week

It is another busy day ahead for traders, with another key central bank rate call scheduled, as well as some more tier 1 data releases later in the day. In the Asian session, attention will centre on Japanese markets, where the Bank of Japan is expected to announce its interest rate decision—a 25-basis point hike is widely priced in. This is followed by a press conference later in the day, where traders will look closely for hints of more hikes in the new year. The European session will see the release of UK Retail Sales data (exp +0.3% m/m), which will provide insight into consumer spending trends ahead of the holiday season. Early in the US session, Canada will report retail sales (exp 0.0% m/m), offering a snapshot of economic momentum north of the border. Later in the session, US data will round out the week, with Existing Home Sales (exp 4.15 mio) figures released alongside the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data, key indicators for assessing household confidence and the inflation outlook.

The post General Market Analysis – 19/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
Asia’s trading session featured anticipation around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy decision, expected to hike rates to 0.75%—the highest since 1995—along with Japan’s November CPI data showing headline inflation at 2.9% and core at 3.0%. Markets reacted positively to this alongside positive US cues from softer inflation, driving broad gains without major surprises in other macro releases like China’s prior data.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Yesterday’s softer-than-expected U.S. CPI fueled equity rallies and Treasury yield drops, reinforcing 2026 Fed cut bets, while ECB projections highlight modest euro area growth amid U.S. tariff relief; today pivots to U.S. home sales at 10 AM ET and massive options expiry, with thin holiday liquidity amplifying moves. Asian shares gained overnight on cooling U.S. CPI (core at 2.6% YoY vs. 3.0% expected), boosting rate cut hopes despite data distortions from the government shutdown.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Existing Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The DXY has weakened 1.78% over the past month and 9.23% year-over-year, with forecasts pointing to 98.28 by quarter-end and further downside to 96.10 in 12 months due to anticipated Fed easing. USD/JPY experienced volatility with initial rallies reversing on CPI data, though pullbacks remain buying opportunities amid rate differentials. In Uzbekistan, local expectations signal a USD decline by 34-35 som.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Existing Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold maintained its upward trajectory near $4,330/oz, buoyed by investment demand in markets like India, a softer dollar, and Fed rate cut anticipation, though jewellery buying slowed seasonally; year-to-date gains exceeded 67% with short-term forecasts eyeing further highs around $4,440 amid stable bullish technicals.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro advanced to multi-month highs near $1.178, driven by US dollar weakness from soft jobs data (64K payrolls, 4.6% unemployment) and ECB hints at pausing easing, alongside upbeat Eurozone sentiment indicators like ZEW at 33.7; forecasts suggest potential upside to 1.1820 if support holds, though geopolitical shifts in Ukraine talks add optimism to regional markets.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB is widely expected to keep the three key interest rates unchanged at its 17–18 December 2025 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This would reflect policymakers’ assessment that the current policy stance remains broadly consistent with medium‑term price stability, while inflation hovers close to the 2% target and the economy expands at a modest pace. Market pricing and recent ECB commentary suggest a high “option value” in staying on hold, with no clear pre‑set path for the next move amid two‑sided risks around growth and inflation.
• Recent indicators point to broadly stable price dynamics around the ECB’s target. Headline HICP inflation is projected to hover near 2% through late 2025, with earlier energy‑related disinflation largely behind and food price pressures contained compared with previous years. Services and wage inflation remain somewhat firmer than anticipated, but the trend is one of gradual moderation, consistent with a scenario in which inflation stabilises around but not persistently above 2% over the medium term.
• Eurosystem staff projections to be released in December are expected to show only small revisions from the September exercise, maintaining a profile of headline inflation close to 2% in 2025, dipping slightly below in 2026, and returning near target in 2027. Soft producer prices, fading pipeline cost pressures, and anchored long‑term inflation expectations limit upside risks, though officials continue to flag uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, commodity price shocks, and fiscal policy choices.
• Euro area GDP growth remains subdued but resilient, with most forecasters and survey‑based indicators pointing to an expansion around 1 — 1.25% in 2025 and 2026, followed by a similar pace into 2027. PMIs and confidence surveys suggest activity has stabilised after earlier weakness, with modest support from public investment and improving external demand offsetting soft private consumption and investment.
• The labour market remains tight in aggregate, with unemployment rates close to multi‑decade lows and participation relatively high, even as job creation has slowed from its earlier peak. Real income growth has turned slightly positive again as inflation normalises, underpinning household spending, while financing conditions, though tighter than in the pre‑hiking era, remain consistent with a gradual expansion in credit to households and firms.
• Business sentiment is mixed, reflecting uncertainty around global trade, the policy outlook in the United States, and the potential impact of future tariff or industrial policy shifts. At the same time, easing supply‑chain costs and a relatively competitive euro exchange rate versus major trading partners provide support to manufacturing and export‑oriented sectors at the margin.​
• The Governing Council is expected to reiterate that future decisions will remain data-dependent and taken meeting by meeting, based on an integrated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. Officials have recently stressed that both further hikes and eventual cuts remain contingent on incoming data, implying no commitment to a particular path and a readiness to adjust if inflation or growth diverge materially from baseline projections.
• Balance sheet normalisation is set to continue gradually and predictably, with the stock of assets under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have already been halted or scaled back in line with prior guidance. The ECB is expected to confirm that the current pace of portfolio runoff remains appropriate, supporting a slow withdrawal of monetary accommodation without disrupting market functioning.
• The next meeting is on 4 to 5 January 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc shows resilience with limited intraday volatility; EUR/CHF and USD/CHF pairs reflect subdued dollar moves ahead of US data. Broader forecasts predict steady appreciation, with CHF/USD potentially reaching 1.29 in a year. The Swiss franc continues its robust trend on December 19, 2025, supported by the SNB’s cautious 0% rate policy amid deflation, safe-haven flows from geopolitical risks, and forecasts of testing USD/CHF resistance near 0.7995, while longer-term outlooks favour further gains against the dollar.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Retail Sales m/m (7:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound remained resilient yet cautious against the USD at approximately 1.3381, influenced by softer UK inflation data reinforcing BoE rate cut expectations and technical forecasts predicting a short-term correction to 1.3285 before potential upside to 1.3565, amid steady market digestion of central bank signals and minimal aggressive selling.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

Core Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

Retail Sales m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian dollar exhibited resilience with a slight uptick versus the USD near 1.3772, fueled by oil gains and pre-retail sales positioning, though forecasts indicate stability with potential quarterly improvements against major peers amid central bank divergence.​ Retail sales figures released on December 19 were a focal point, following recent softer US CPI data that spurred rate-cut speculation but left the long-term USD/CAD bias tilted upward. Oil prices climbed 0.9%, bolstering the commodity-linked loonie.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices experienced volatility on December 19, 2025, with WTI crude dipping to around $55.83 per barrel amid ongoing supply concerns. A US blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, ordered by President Trump, provided some upward support earlier in the week, pushing prices toward $56, but fears of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and potential Russian oil re-entering the market tempered gains.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the U.S. session, the combination of a downside CPI surprise and steady jobless claims shifted the narrative further toward a 2025 easing cycle that begins in March, rather than January, keeping a “goldilocks” feel to macro conditions. The immediate market reaction favored risk assets and duration: U.S. equity indices and gold outperformed, the front end of the Treasury curve rallied, and the dollar softened against major peers, with GBP, EUR, and pro‑cyclical FX among the main beneficiaries.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should be prepared for elevated volatility centered on the Bank of Japan, with a widely expected hike from 0.50% to about 0.75% and Governor Ueda’s press conference likely to drive sharp moves in JPY and regional risk assets. Attention will then shift to UK retail sales as a gauge of European consumer resilience, followed by Canadian retail sales for insight into North American demand and CAD dynamics. Into the US session, existing home sales and the revised University of Michigan sentiment index will provide fresh reads on the US housing market and consumer confidence, shaping closing‑week positioning in USD, global equities, and high‑beta Asian currencies

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Existing Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Dollar is trading near 98.4 on the DXY, modestly firmer intraday but still in a broader corrective downtrend after losing almost 9% over the past year as markets price in a post‑Fed‑cut environment with a shallower US rate premium. With no major US data releases scheduled, price action is expected to be flow‑ and headline‑driven, particularly around the Bank of Japan decision window, leaving USD vulnerable to further selling on any risk‑positive or dovish‑policy news but capable of short‑covering rallies if global risk sentiment sours.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Existing Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold remains close to record territory in the mid‑$4,300/oz region after a roughly 60–70% surge this year, with intraday forecasts pointing to a volatile but upward‑tilted range around $4,255–$4,440 and no clear sign yet of a major top. The market tone is broadly bullish but increasingly cautious, as traders balance strong tailwinds, lower real rates, central‑bank and safe‑haven demand, de‑dollarization flows, and persistent geopolitical and inflation concerns against the risk of corrective pullbacks from historically stretched levels as year‑end liquidity thins.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from AUD today?

Going into Friday, the Australian Dollar is on the defensive, trading just below 0.66 after several sessions of losses that pushed it to a two‑week low against the US Dollar, with the move driven mainly by a firmer USD and cautious global risk sentiment rather than fresh domestic shocks. Australia’s data calendar for the day is light, featuring only lower‑tier credit indicators, so traders are focusing on external catalysts such as US economic releases, equity market swings, and evolving expectations for Fed and RBA policy, while technical analysts continue to flag the 0.67 region as a key resistance level that must be cleared for any sustained AUD recovery.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from NZD today?

Today, the New Zealand Dollar is trading in a consolidative, slightly defensive posture around the mid‑0.57s against the US Dollar, retreating from early‑December highs as risk appetite cools and strong domestic GDP data fails to shift RBNZ policy expectations toward imminent tightening. The broader trend over the past month remains modestly positive for NZD, but with the Fed already cutting rates, the RBNZ seen on hold, and global markets turning more cautious, short‑term price action is likely to revolve around whether NZD/USD can defend support near 0.5750 or slips back toward the lower end of its recent range.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BOJ Policy Rate (Tentative)

Monetary Policy Statement (Tentative)

BOJ Press Conference (Tentative)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen today is in a holding pattern but underpinned by strong expectations that the BoJ will deliver a landmark rate hike to 0.75% at its December 18–19 meeting, bringing policy to a three‑decade high.​ Price action in USD/JPY around the mid‑155s reflects this tug‑of‑war between anticipated domestic tightening and broader dollar dynamics, while markets brace for elevated volatility and potential carry‑trade unwinds once Friday’s decision and guidance hit the tape.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan will meet on 18–19 December with markets almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point hike, which would raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to around 0.75%, as the bank moves further away from its ultra-loose stance while stressing that any tightening will remain gradual and data-dependent.
• The BOJ is expected to continue guiding the uncollateralized overnight call rate in a narrow band around the new policy rate, near 0.75%, while signaling that the pace and timing of any additional hikes will depend on how past increases affect bank lending, corporate financing conditions, and overall economic activity.
• The quarterly path of JGB purchases remains on a pre-announced, gradual taper: outright purchases are being reduced by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then by roughly ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, with the bank still aiming for JGB purchases to settle near ¥2 trillion in Q1 2027 and retaining flexibility to adjust the pace if market functioning or yield volatility deteriorate.
• Japan’s economy has softened in the near term, with Q3 2025 GDP contracting at an annualized pace of about 2.3% as weaker residential investment and external demand weighed on activity, even as business sentiment in manufacturing has recently improved to a roughly four-year high.
• Core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to around 3.0% year-on-year in October, up from 2.9% in September and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target, while the “core-core” measure excluding both fresh food and energy rose to about 3.1%, underscoring persistent underlying price pressures.
• In the very near term, some input-cost pressures are easing as earlier import price surges fade, but services inflation linked to labor shortages, along with steady wage gains, continues to support broader price momentum; firms’ and households’ medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored slightly above 2%, keeping short-term inflation risks tilted to the upside.
• For the coming quarters, the BOJ assesses that real growth will likely run below potential as the economy digests tighter financial conditions and past yen depreciation, though accommodative real rates, positive real wage growth, and improving corporate sentiment should help sustain a modest recovery in private consumption and business investment.
• Over the medium term, as overseas demand stabilizes and domestic labor markets remain tight, the BOJ expects wage settlements and inflation expectations to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory around or slightly above 2%, providing room for further cautious rate normalization as long as financial conditions remain supportive and the recovery is not derailed.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 22 to 23 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading slightly higher today, with WTI in the mid‑50s and Brent near 60 dollars per barrel as the market digests a rebound from recent multi‑year lows. Prices were lifted earlier in the week after President Donald Trump ordered a full blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan tankers, heightening supply‑disruption fears, but sentiment remains cautious because global production and inventories still suggest an oversupplied market. Over the past month, crude has lost around 5% and is down close to 18% over the past year, reflecting persistent demand concerns despite ongoing geopolitical flashpoints

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.28%, Shanghai Composite up 1.59%, Hang Seng up 0.71% ASX up 0.53%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,346.30 (-0.41%), Silver at $65.118 (-0.17%), Brent Oil at $59.68 (-0.23%), WTI Oil at $55.86 (-0.25%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.136, UK 10-year yield at 4.4830, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8491

News & Data:

• (USD) CPI y/y  -1.3M  to -2.4M expected
• (USD) Unemployment Claims  -1.3M  to -2.4M expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Friday, buoyed by broadly positive cues from Wall Street after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates next year. Asian markets had ended mostly lower in the previous session.

The Australian share market is modestly higher, extending Thursday’s gains. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is trading above the 8,600 level, supported by strength in technology and financial stocks, though losses in gold miners are limiting upside. The index is up about 0.4 percent, while the broader All Ordinaries Index is also trading higher.

Mining stocks are mixed, with modest losses in BHP Group and Fortescue offset by gains in Rio Tinto and Mineral Resources. Oil stocks are also mixed, as gains in Origin Energy and Beach Energy counter declines in Santos and Woodside Energy. Technology stocks are broadly higher, while major banks are posting solid gains across the board. Gold miners, however, are mostly lower.

In Japan, the market is trading sharply higher, rebounding from the previous session’s losses. The Nikkei 225 has climbed to near the 49,600 level, led by strong gains in automakers, financials and technology stocks. Investors are also watching closely as the Bank of Japan concludes its monetary policy meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets across Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Southeast Asia are trading mostly higher. On Wall Street overnight, U.S. stocks rebounded strongly, led by the Nasdaq, while European markets also closed higher. Crude oil prices edged up slightly amid ongoing geopolitical concerns.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

The post Friday 19th December 2025: Asian Markets Rise on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Australia and Japan Lead Gains first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.