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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government is prepared to issue new bonds to help fund the latest stimulus package if stronger tax revenues fall short, but stressed that overall JGB issuance will still be smaller than last year’s total.

Takaichi reiterated that Japan must pursue sustainable public finances through economic growth, signalling her administration’s intention to balance near-term fiscal support with longer-term consolidation.

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The commitment to keep JGB issuance below last year’s levels may help steady debt-market sentiment, though reliance on new bonds underscores lingering fiscal pressure.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Yen finally finding some small bids as Japan’s Cabinet approves 21tln stimulus package
• U.S. charges four in Nvidia chip-smuggling case, revives calls for chip tracking
• Bitcoin, Ether continue to slide – crypto crush
• Ueda:inflation to converge around our target sometime from latter half of next fiscal year
• Offshore yuan not artificially cheap, Mizuho says, citing stronger regional positioning
• BoJ Gov Ueda says prospect of economy, price forecasts materializing increasing (rate hike
• Recap – Japan export rebound continues in October despite lingering U.S. weakness
• Japan says debt ratio to edge lower as govt, BOJ work toward stable inflation
• Equities here in APAC taking a hit, as you’d expect
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0875 (vs. estimate at 7.1154)
• EU explores investment in Australian resources as trade talks set to restart
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says weak yen pushes up import prices, factor in higher CPI
• Japan preliminary manufacturing PMI for November 48.8 (prior 48.2)
• Bessent wants more Fed rate cuts (Yes, I know, Bessent parroting Trump is not news)
• Japanese finance minister Katayama – another attempt at verbal intervention yen support
• UK consumer confidence falls ahead of budget as households brace for tax hikes
• Singapore lifts 2025 growth forecast after Q3 GDP beats expectations
• Japan exports beat expectations in October as Asia and EU demand pick up
• Fed’s Paulson urges caution on December rate cut decision as job risks edge higher
• Japan fin min with some verbal intervention to try to support the yen
• Japan November Core CPI 3.0% (3.0% expected, prior 2.9%)
• Recap – Japan readies ¥21.3tn (USD 135bn) stimulus, largest since Covid
• ICYMI – Morgan Stanley drops December Fed cut call after strong September payroll rebound
• ICYMI – Trump’s latest cave in, slashes tariffs on Brazil. Every day brings a TACO story.
• Top Bitcoin whale sells entire $1.3bn BTC stack as sentiment fades
• Australian preliminary November PMIs: Manufacturing 51.6 (prior 49.7)
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Ugly price action in a big stock market reversal
• New Zealand October trade improves, both imports and exports higher m/m
• $20bn extra bail out for Argentina – banks say No
• Japan trying some verbal yen intervention after the close, can’t blame ’em for trying
• The major indices tumble as buyers that the open sell into the close
• Fed’s Goolsbee is uneasy about cutting interest rates in the face of too-high inflation
• Nasdaq and the S&P 500 break the October low

Major FX traded in subdued, narrow ranges. Even the yen — the market’s focal point thanks to a wave of data, policy hints and fresh fiscal headlines — barely budged, with USD/JPY holding around 157.46, until a final dip.

Japan’s November flash PMIs were mixed:

• Manufacturing remained in contraction for a fifth month at 48.8, an improvement from 48.2.

• Services held firm at 53.1, marking continued resilience.

• The composite PMI rose to 52.0, its eighth month in expansion.

Inflation firmed modestly, staying well above the 2% target on all three measures:

• Core CPI: 3.0% y/y (prior 2.9%)

• Headline CPI: 3.0% y/y

• Core-core (ex-food & energy): 3.1%

All readings aligned with expectations and support the case for near-term BOJ tightening.

Exports were a bright spot. Shipments rose 3.6% y/y, beating the 1.1% consensus and marking a second month of gains, helped by resilient demand in Asia and a softer yen. Exports to the U.S. fell 3%, the seventh straight monthly decline, though the tariff impact appears more limited than feared.

Governor Ueda emphasised that currency volatility is increasingly feeding into import prices and inflation expectations. He said the BOJ will scrutinise FX pass-through closely and reiterated that the bank’s baseline remains further rate hikes if the economy and inflation track forecasts. Ueda
noted that the likelihood of those projections materialising is
increasing, reinforcing expectations of further, gradual policy
normalisation.

The yen finally gained a little more on headlines that the cabinet approved a ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package, Japan’s largest since the pandemic, with ¥17.7 trillion in fresh spending. Investors remain wary of the heavy funding requirements.

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EU Trade Commissioner Maros Šefčovič said Brussels is exploring equity stakes, long-term offtake agreements, and joint investments in Australian resources projects as part of renewed trade-deal momentum.

He expects another round of Australia–EU FTA talks early next year, with critical minerals emerging as a central pillar. Australian equities underperformed, falling to a five-month low.

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Singapore’s economy beat expectations in Q3, prompting the government to lift its 2025 GDP forecast to ~4.0% (from 1.5–2.5%). Stronger global demand and resilient regional growth drove the upgrade.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (the country’s central bank) said its policy stance remains appropriate with the output gap positive this year and normalising in 2026.

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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against front-loading rate cuts, saying inflation has been “steady at best, and worse by some measures.” He remains uneasy about adding a third consecutive cut in December and stressed the Fed needs more clarity before easing further.

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Crypto fell again. Bitcoin whale Owen Gunden, the world’s eighth-largest individual BTC holder, fully liquidated his 11,000-BTC stack (~$1.3bn) over the past month, delivering a psychological blow to sentiment.

Oil remained heavy amid broader risk caution.

Asia-Pac
stocks:

• Japan
  (Nikkei 225) -2.4%
• Hong
  Kong (Hang Seng) -2.1%
• Shanghai
  Composite -1.9%
• Australia
  (S&P/ASX 200) -1.6%, hit five month lows

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY and yen crosses have fallen a little in the wake of Japan’s Cabinet approving the 21.3tln yen economic stimulus package:

• 17.7tln JPY of fresh spending via extra budget
• measures ranging from price relief to investment support in priority sectors
• biggest portion will go to price relief, ¥11.7 trillion, subsidies, cash handouts and such

This is the largest round of extra spending since the pandemic.

If you’ve been following along today you’ll have noted the multiple rounds of verbal intervention. These had very little yen impact but did cut a little from JGB yields.

Yen finally responding now. In a very limited way!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. prosecutors have charged four people with illegally exporting advanced Nvidia AI chips to China, a case that has intensified calls in Washington for tighter tracking of high-end semiconductors. The indictment alleges the defendants—two U.S. citizens and two Chinese nationals—used fake contracts, false paperwork and third-country routing to evade export controls.

Info via Reuters.

• According to the Justice Department, the group exported 400 Nvidia A100 GPUs to China via Malaysia between October 2024 and January 2025.
• Authorities also intercepted attempts to ship 10 HP supercomputers with H100 chips and 50 Nvidia H200 GPUs through Thailand.
• The scheme allegedly relied on a Tampa-based front company and nearly $4 million in Chinese wire transfers.

The case prompted House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar to urge swift passage of the bipartisan Chip Security Act, which would mandate chip-location verification and require manufacturers to report diversion risks. The incident highlights the difficulty the U.S. faces in enforcing export restrictions designed to curb China’s military and AI capabilities—policies Beijing condemns as economic coercion.

This from yesterday:

• White House wants Congress to oppose export-restrictions targeting Nvidia chips to China

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s exports rose for a second straight month in October, signalling a partial recovery after recent tariff-driven weakness in U.S. demand.

• Total shipments increased 3.6% year-on-year, beating expectations for a 1.1% rise, though exports to the United States still fell 3.1%.
• Shipments to China grew 2.1%, helping offset the drag from the U.S. market.

Imports also surprised to the upside, rising 0.7% versus expectations for a decline, leaving Japan with a smaller-than-forecast trade deficit of ¥231.8 billion.

The improvement comes after Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted for the first time in six quarters, largely due to U.S. tariffs that hit export volumes. A revised trade deal implemented in September lowered U.S. tariffs to a baseline 15%, down from earlier punitive rates of 25–27.5%, offering some relief to manufacturers. Even so, analysts warn U.S.-bound shipments may stay soft as Japanese automakers pass more of their tariff costs on to American consumers.

Solid domestic demand — driven by capital spending and firm private consumption — supported Q3 growth, but economists caution that a prolonged export downturn could undermine Japan’s fragile recovery.

—

More on the data here:

• Japan exports beat expectations in October as Asia and EU demand pick up

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The European Union is weighing new ways to invest directly in Australia’s critical resources sector, with Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič saying Brussels is exploring options ranging from equity stakes to long-term offtake agreements and joint investments.

Šefčovič discussed the proposals with Australia’s resources minister during meetings this week, underscoring Europe’s push to secure stable supplies of key minerals needed for its clean-energy and industrial strategies. The comments come amid renewed momentum in efforts to revive the Australia–EU trade deal, which stalled last year.

Šefčovič said he expects negotiations to resume with “another round of talks early next year,” signalling that both sides see strategic value in deepening cooperation across trade, energy security and critical minerals.

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EU interest in structured investment and offtake could strengthen funding pipelines for Australian critical-minerals projects, supporting long-term supply security and adding upside for sector sentiment.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan preliminary manufacturing PMI for November 48.8, contracted for a fifth month

• prior 48.2

Some of sub-indexes:

• factory output showed improvement, climbing to a four-month high, suggesting that the business environment for manufacturers is edging towards stabilisation
• new orders continued to decline, though at a slower rate than in October, reflecting subdued domestic and global demand
• overseas demand remained particularly weak, with new export orders falling at the fastest pace in three months.

Services 53.1

• prior 53.1
• new businesses in the service sector grew at a faster pace, driven by solid domestic demand

Composite 52.0, eighth straight month of expansion

• prior 51.5

The report from S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights:

• “inflation remains a key concern”
• inflationary pressures intensified with input costs rising at the fastest pace in six months on a composite basis, largely attributed to higher labour and raw material costs
• firms raised their selling prices to secure profit margins, although the pace of output inflation slowed from October.
• “business confidence regarding future output improved to the highest level since January”
• strongest employment growth since June

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UK consumer confidence slipped in November as households brace for potentially tough measures in next week’s budget, according to the latest GfK survey. The headline index fell to -19 from -17, slightly weaker than the Reuters poll expectation of -18 and matching the lowest reading since May.

While sentiment remains notably above April’s sharp drop to -23, when household bills jumped and U.S. tariffs pushed up import costs, GfK described November’s result as “bleak,” with consumers expecting difficult news from Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The government is widely expected to face a sizeable fiscal gap, with analysts estimating £20–30 billion in required tax increases following softer growth forecasts, higher borrowing costs and a reversal of welfare cuts.

The survey also recorded a three-point decline in the major-purchase index, a worrying signal for retailers ahead of Black Friday and the broader Christmas trading season.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore’s economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, prompting the government to sharply upgrade its outlook for next year.

• Q3 GDP expanded 4.2% year-on-year, beating the Reuters poll of 4.0% and far above the earlier 2.9% advance estimate.
• Quarter-on-quarter growth rose 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Buoyed by stronger global demand and better-than-expected growth among major trading partners, the Ministry of Trade and Industry lifted its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4.0%, up from the earlier 1.5%–2.5% range.

• Growth for 2026 is projected at 1.0%–3.0%.

However, officials warned that manufacturing and trade-related services are likely to expand at a slower pace in 2026, reflecting a more moderate global cycle. Enterprise Singapore narrowed its forecast for 2025 non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to around +2.5%, with 2026 NODX expected to grow 0.0% to +2.0%.

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The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept policy unchanged in October, citing resilient growth despite U.S. tariffs. While Singapore faces a 10% U.S. tariff on its exports—below the rates imposed on its regional peers—sector-specific levies, including a potential 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals, remain a key risk. Authorities have delayed implementation of the drug tariff to allow time for negotiation.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s trade data for October came in stronger than expected, with exports rising 3.6% year-on-year, comfortably beating forecasts for a 1.1% gain, according to Ministry of Finance figures. Imports also surprised to the upside, edging 0.7% higher versus expectations for a small decline. The trade deficit narrowed to ¥231.8 billion, smaller than the ¥280.1 billion projected in the poll.

The export recovery was led by firm demand from Asia, where shipments increased 4.2%, including a 2.1% rise in exports to China.

• Exports to the EU also surged 9.2%.
• By contrast, shipments to the United States fell 3.1%, suggesting softer U.S. goods demand.

The stronger trade performance offers a modest cushion for Japan’s economy as policymakers weigh the timing of the next Bank of Japan rate hike and assess whether external demand can offset sluggish domestic consumption.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese finance minister Katayama:

• Won’t comment on forex levels
• Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• Recently seeing one-sided, very rapid moves
• Will take appropriate action based on U.S-Japan forex agreement
• FX intervention is an option as it is mentioned in Japan-US agreement in September
• Will issue govt debt to fund part of stimulus package as needed

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan November Core CPI 3.0%

• expected 3.0%, prior 2.9%

Headline reads the same, comes in at 3.0%

• expected 3.0%, prior 2.9%

The core-core rate, ie excluding food and energy 3.1%

• expected 3.1%, prior 3.0%

Yen is little changed, USD/JPY circa 157.46.

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If you were looking for data today to support a December rate hike from the Bank of Japan this will help you out. All 3 at 3% or higher. And, you’re not alone:

• BOJ likely to hike in December as yen slide boosts inflation risk, Reuters poll shows

More here:

• Recap – Japan readies ¥21.3tn (USD 135bn) stimulus, largest since Covid

That’s gotta feed inflation further, right?

As for the yen:

• Yen could hit 160, but rising chance of intervention, economist warns

But we might not have to wait ’til 160:

• Japan trying some verbal yen intervention after the close, can’t blame ’em for trying

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.