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more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The IMF has warned that Australia needs a sweeping tax overhaul to stabilise surging public debt, which is projected to exceed $1 trillion at the federal level alongside fast-rising state liabilities.

In its annual review, the Fund called for reintroducing a mining tax, lifting the GST tax rate (GST is an Australian VAT), removing selected income-tax exemptions, and shifting state taxes away from stamp duty toward broad-based recurring property taxes. It said these reforms are necessary to offset weakening income and corporate-tax revenue and to support long-term fiscal sustainability.

The IMF also urged tighter spending control, particularly in the NDIS and aged care, and advocated for a nationally coordinated fiscal strategy to manage state debt tied to infrastructure, health and social-sector outlays.

Despite these pressures, the IMF said Australia is achieving a post-Covid “soft landing”, with growth forecast to rise from 1.8% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026. But it cautioned that global uncertainty — including potential fallout from President Trump’s tariff policies — risks weakening demand, delaying recovery in private spending and lifting unemployment.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

British consumer confidence slumped sharply in November, recording its biggest monthly drop since April, as households grew more pessimistic about both the economic outlook and their own finances.

A survey by Opinium for the British Retail Consortium (BRC) found that expectations for the economy over the next three months fell to –44%, down from –35% in October, the lowest reading since April. Expectations for personal finances also weakened, dropping to –16%, from –11% a month earlier.

The BRC said the decline reflects renewed strain on household budgets and broader uncertainty following recent government signals about possible income-tax increases, proposals that now appear to have been shelved. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said spending expectations have softened as Christmas approaches, with households planning to cut back on non-food retail purchases and wider discretionary spending.

The survey period coincided with lingering pressure from earlier tariff announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump, which had already dampened sentiment earlier in the year. Attention now turns to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who will deliver the UK budget on November 26.

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Weak consumer sentiment highlights ongoing pressure on UK retail and discretionary sectors, adding downside risk to holiday spending and reinforcing expectations that the November 26 budget will be closely watched for household-support measures.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s banking regulator has cautioned the country’s major lenders against loosening mortgage standards as interest rates fall and competition for home loans intensifies.

In a new system-wide stress test, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) found that banks and superannuation funds would be resilient even under a year-long financial shock driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures, climate risks or cyber incidents.

But APRA warned that strong results depend on banks maintaining strict lending practices, particularly in mortgages, given the financial system’s heavy exposure to household debt — which it identified as a key vulnerability. The regulator said any easing of credit standards to chase market share could undermine stability if a severe downturn were to hit.

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APRA’s warning underscores regulatory sensitivity around mortgage credit quality as rates fall, suggesting banks may face constraints on aggressive loan growth and that prudential settings will stay tight despite improving economic conditions.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing an executive order that would put Washington on a collision course with states over how artificial intelligence is regulated, according to a draft seen by Reuters.

We had the heads up to this yesterday:

• Trump pumps AI investment, making US economy hottest in world. Regulation tho, hot or not?

Under the proposal, Trump would direct Attorney General Pam Bondi to set up an “AI Litigation Task Force” dedicated to challenging state-level AI rules in court:

• The task force would argue that certain state laws improperly regulate interstate commerce, are preempted by existing federal rules, or are otherwise unconstitutional.
• It would instruct the Commerce Department to review state AI-related laws and issue guidance that could withhold some federal broadband funding from states whose regulations are deemed to conflict with federal priorities.

If implemented, the order would mark one of the most aggressive federal pushes yet to assert Washington’s primacy over AI policy, signalling that the White House wants tighter central control over how new rules governing AI are written and enforced.

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While details are still in draft, a federal push to override state AI rules could eventually create a more uniform regulatory environment for tech and AI firms, but may also trigger legal uncertainty and prolonged litigation in the near term.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. Commerce Department is preparing to authorise the sale of up to 70,000 advanced AI chips to government-backed technology companies in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant shift in Washington’s stance toward the Middle East’s fast-growing AI ambitions.

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the info.

The move reverses earlier resistance inside the administration, where officials had raised security concerns about exporting cutting-edge processors directly to state-linked firms. According to officials familiar with the discussions, President Trump has personally engaged with leaders in both countries on chip access since his visit in May, including fresh talks this week with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Under the plan, U.S. suppliers would be cleared to sell up to 35,000 Nvidia GB300 servers — or equivalent systems — to each of the two buyers:

• G42, the Abu Dhabi state-backed AI company, and
• Humain, a Saudi government-supported AI venture.

Nvidia’s GB300 servers are built around the Blackwell B300 processor, one of the most advanced chips currently available. AMD is also heavily involved in the region, having secured a multibillion-dollar partnership with Humain.

U.S. officials said the approvals will come with strict security conditions intended to prevent the technology from being diverted to China or Huawei, reflecting Washington’s ongoing effort to restrict Beijing’s access to frontier AI hardware while deepening strategic ties with Gulf states.

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Approval of large AI-chip exports to the Gulf strengthens Nvidia and AMD’s international pipeline while signalling Washington’s willingness to deepen tech ties with regional allies — provided strict China-related safeguards are in place.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration is quietly reassessing the timing of long-promised semiconductor tariffs, with several U.S. officials privately signalling that duties may not be imposed as soon as previously indicated.

Reuters carry the report.

Multiple people familiar with recent conversations said the administration has adopted a more cautious stance, wary of provoking Beijing and potentially reigniting the disruptive tit-for-tat trade tensions of recent years.

Officials have conveyed this softer tone to lawmakers, industry groups and companies over the past several days. While no final decision has been made—and triple-digit tariffs could still be introduced at any time—sources said the White House is weighing the geopolitical risks alongside concerns about supply chains, particularly rare earth materials essential for chipmaking.

Publicly, the administration denies any shift. A White House spokesperson insisted nothing has changed and reiterated Washington’s commitment to reshoring critical manufacturing. The Commerce Department also said its semiconductor tariff posture remains intact, while offering no clarity on timing.

The hesitation comes at a politically sensitive moment for President Trump, who faces rising voter frustration over living costs heading into the holiday season. Higher tariffs on imported chips could push up consumer prices on everyday electronics. Officials have previously examined the idea of taxing foreign devices based on the number of semiconductors they contain—raising the possibility of broad consumer impact.

At the same time, Trump is attempting to maintain a fragile trade truce with China. He met President Xi Jinping last month in Busan, agreeing to pause escalating trade actions, even as U.S. officials warned China that forthcoming national-security-based measures may still prove contentious.

Washington launched national security investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports in April, laying the groundwork for tariffs of roughly 100% on foreign-made chips, excluding companies with existing or committed U.S. production. But internal debate over scope and timing has slowed the rollout.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reuters citing unnamed sources and local media in their report

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Nvidia earning after the close. What are traders/analysts expecting?
• FOMC Minutes: Many indicated it’s likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged
• It’s not a good sign when they talk about an ‘everything rally’
• US sells 20-year bonds at 4.706% vs 4.704% WI
• Ukraine peace plan would surrender Donbas and halve its armed forces
• BLS cancels October jobs report
• Gold reverses early gains and slumps into negative territory
• If art prices are any indication…
• EIA weekly crude oil inventories -3426K vs -603K expected
• The Google chamgechanger: Why GOOG stock is surging and everyone else is slumping
• Google proved that you don’t need Nvidia and so much more
• US August trade balance -59.6B vs -61.0B expected
• Oil prices fall on talk of ending the Ukraine war
• The USD is mixed to kickstart the day w/ the EURUSD little changed, the USDJPY higher
• NVDA earnings tonight, what we can learn from the options market
• investingLive European FX news wrap: UK CPI in line, JPY extends losses
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 14 November -5.2% vs +0.6% prior

The U.S. trade deficit for August (yes—released in mid-November) printed at –$59.6 billion, slightly better than the –$61.0 billion expected, but the release had virtually no market impact.

What did move markets was the announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the October jobs report will not be released, and that the November report is delayed until December 16—after the FOMC meeting. That decision sent the U.S. dollar higher as traders reasoned that policymakers are less likely to cut rates if they are heading into the meeting without fresh labor-market data.

The FOMC meeting minutes were also less dovish. The FOMC minutes showed a committee leaning cautious but divided. Many participants indicated it would likely be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, though most still expect further gradual cuts over time to move toward a neutral stance. Several policymakers said a December rate cut could be appropriate if the economy evolves as expected, but others preferred holding steady, underscoring a wide range of views. The minutes noted rising downside risks to employment, slowing job gains, and a “somewhat elevated” inflation backdrop with ongoing upside risks—especially from tariffs, which are expected to push core goods inflation higher in 2025–26. Nearly all participants agreed to end QT on December 1 as reserves approach ample levels. The discussion also highlighted a divergence in consumer spending between higher-income households and more financially strained lower-income groups, and some officials flagged stretched asset valuations with the risk of a disorderly equity decline. Staff projections show GDP remaining above potential through 2028, though uncertainty is elevated. The meeting itself featured a 25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00%, with dissents on both sides—Miran arguing for 50 bps and Schmid preferring no cut at all.

The EURUSD moved to new session lows and tested the low of a swing area between 1.1518 and 1.15295. The EURUSD fell -0.46% today and in the process moved away from its 200 hour moving average at 1.15872 and back below the 38.2% of the range since mid-October at 1.1567 (see post here). The price is testing a swing area down to 1.15185. The low from November comes in at 1.14679.

The GBPUSD – which was under pressure from UK CPI data released in the European session – fell below a key swing area between 1.3083 at 1.30956. The pair ha moved to a low of 1.3044 and will be targeting the low prices from November near 1.3009 and the natural support at 1.3000 (see technical post here)

The USDJPY extended above the swing area target at 156.733 reaching a high of 157.04. A swing area starting at 157.66 and extending up to 158.86 are the next target in the new trading day (see post here)

The USDCHF earlier in the day broke above a key cluster of technical levels including the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.79947, the 50% midpoint of the move down from the October, and the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.8014. The sellers turned the buyers and the price has since extended all the way up to a high of 0.8067.The price is up 0.81%, and is testing the low of a key swing area between 0.8066 0.8076 ( see video here).

Looking at the US stock market ahead of Nvidia earnings after the close (earnings to be released at 4:20 PM ET).

• Dow industrial average rose 47 103 points or 0.10% at 46138.77
• S&P index rose 24.84 points or 0.3% at 6642.16
• NASDAQ index rose 131.38 points or 0.59% at 22564.23.

In the US debt market, yields are modestly higher after erasing earlier declines in yields:

• 2-year yield 3.587%, +0.6 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.701%, +0.7 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.127%, +0.6 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.749%, +0.9 basis points

Crude oil fell sharply after reports of the US brokering a new peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The price of crude oil is down $-1.38 or -2.27% at $59.29.

Gold rose $8 or 0.20% at $4074.

Bitcoin continued its move lower as it fell $-3400 or -3.72% and $89,453

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The weird thing about trading is that one of the best indications you can get is from sentiment but it’s almost always better to go against it. So much of what you’re trying to do is gauge sentiment. When markets are complacent or fearful, it’s the best point to buy. When markets are euphoric, it’s better to sell.

Of course, often a few days or hours can make the difference so even if you get it right, it’s hard to execute.

That’s why a note like this one from JPM’s trading desk makes me worried, particularly on the day of Nvidia earnings.

“Given that there have not been any changes to the fundamental story, nor does our investment hypothesis rely on the Fed easing, we are dip-buyers. As we look at the two key events this week, (i) Sept’s NFP and (ii) NVDA earnings, when combined, this could set the stage for the next run to /through ATHS.”

Not only is that bold, it’s also odd. Nvidia earnings are a two-way risk and there are many examples of shares selling off the day after earnings, even in the incredible bull market in NVDA shares. Secondly, I can’t see what non-farm payrolls matters at all. It’s the report for September.

Buyer beware.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• 0.2 basis point tail

I don’t think that’s going to move the broader market.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

There are more details on the 28-point peace plan the US has floated to Russia and Ukraine.

It would require Ukraine to abandon the Donbass region that it still controls. The full details aren’t revealed but it would likely include all of the Donetsk region.

Ukraine would also be required to cut the size of its armed forces in half along with abandoning key categories of weaponry. It would also remove some US military assistance.

In return, Ukraine would get some security guarantees.

The report says that Ukraine was likely to reject the proposal as it favored Russia.

Oil prices fell on earlier reports of the plan.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.