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Bessent was interviewed on Fox ‘news’.

He was asked if the checks Trump will be sending out to Americans for $2000 would be inflationary.

Bessent answered that “Maybe we can persuade Americans to save that”.

Idiotic answer. The thing is, Bessent is not an idiot. Slimy politician, yes.

There you have it folks. Further inflation in the pipeline for the US. It took years for the Federal Reserve to come to grips with the pandemic stimulus, its difficult to see any rate cut path ahead lasting long with this new indaltion about to rollin.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Kyodo reports that Japan’s upcoming economic stimulus package is expected to exceed ¥20 trillion, with a supplementary budget of roughly ¥17 trillion planned to finance the measures.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Axios with the report, in brief:

• The Trump administration has been quietly coordinating with Russia on a new proposal aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, according to U.S. and Russian officials who spoke with Axios.
• The significance: The 28-point U.S. framework draws heavily on President Trump’s recent success brokering a deal in Gaza.
• A senior Russian official told Axios he views the effort positively, though it remains uncertain how Ukraine and its European allies will respond.

More here.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

In line results.

Q3 2025 Wage Price Index 0.8% (QoQ)

• expected 0.8%, prior 0.8%

3.4% y/y

• expected 3.4%, prior 3.4%

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The September quarter (Q3) is notable in Australia as its when a significant share of wage increases occur:

• Award/Minimum wages adjustments are made annually by Australia’s Fair Work Commission (FWC)
• The FWC granted a 3.5% increase for this year

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Wage Price Index (WPI) quarterly, measuring changes in the price of labor, unaffected by shifts in workforce composition, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

The ABS provides detailed WPI data, including breakdowns by industry and sector, offering insights into wage trends across Australia’s economy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Some positive info for Japan’s economy. Admittedly from a couple of months back:

Japan Core Machinery Orders for September 2025 +11.6% y/y

expected +5.4%, prior +1.6%

+4.2% m/m

• expected +2.0%, prior -0.9%)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, moved into slightly positive territory in October, lifting to +0.35% in October from +0.10% in September.

WPAC comments:

• Leading Index growth rate lifts to 0.35%, moving into slightly positive territory
• Increase marks a step-up from around-trend readings over past six months
• Recent surge in consumer expectations played a big role

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries softened in September as overseas investors trimmed their holdings for the first time in six months, newly released Treasury Department data show. The figures were delayed by the federal government’s 43-day shutdown, with the October report now slated for 18 December.

Overall foreign Treasury holdings slipped to $9.249 trillion in September, down slightly from August but still 5.5% higher than a year earlier. The headline trend masked notable divergences among major holders.

• Japan, the largest overseas creditor to Washington, continued to ramp up its buying. Its holdings rose to $1.189 trillion, the highest since August 2022, and marked a ninth straight month of accumulation.
• China, by contrast, continued its slow multi-year reduction, with holdings edging down to $700.5 billion. Analysts attribute the decline to both strategic diversification away from the U.S. dollar and Beijing’s need to support the yuan amid weaker export inflows and a slower domestic economy. China remains the third-largest holder of Treasuries, behind the U.K.
• The United Kingdom also trimmed its exposure, cutting its holdings to $865 billion from just over $904 billion in August.

On a transactions basis, foreign buying of Treasuries cooled sharply to $25.5 billion, less than half the August figure and well below May’s large $147 billion inflow, the biggest since 2022.

However, foreign appetite for U.S. risk assets strengthened elsewhere: overseas investors bought $132.9 billion in U.S. equities, a sharp turnaround from July’s equity outflows.

Despite softer Treasury demand, the U.S. still recorded net capital inflows of $190.1 billion, modestly above August, reinforcing ongoing external demand for U.S. assets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The White House announced a series of major agreements between the United States and Saudi Arabia, marking a significant expansion in defense, trade, technology and strategic cooperation. Officials said both countries have committed to intensifying their engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, signalling renewed momentum in the bilateral economic relationship.

Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American-made tanks, part of a broader defense package he approved that also includes future deliveries of F-35 fighter jets. The administration framed the agreements as strengthening U.S. industrial capacity while deepening security ties with Riyadh.

Beyond defense, both governments highlighted several strategic achievements, including a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, new progress on critical minerals collaboration, and the signing of a landmark memorandum of understanding on artificial intelligence. The AI pact is aimed at expanding joint research, commercial development, and secure deployment frameworks between the two countries.

Together, the agreements underscore a broadening U.S.–Saudi partnership across military, economic and technological domains.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand third quarter producer price rises not as fast as expected

Data from Stats NZ.

New Zealand PPI Outputs +0.6% q/q

• expected 0.7%, prior 0.6%

Inputs 0.2% q/q

• expected 0.9%, prior 0.6%

Slower wholesale inflation will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank is continuing on its easing cycle in order to address NZ economic growth cocnerns.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US stocks close lower. Midday rally runs out of steam
• UK media reports that Reeves will consider ‘shielding’ small businesses from tax rises
• BLS :US PPI to be released on November 25
• Reuters Poll: Trump approval rating falls to 38%. His lowest since returning to the WH
• USDCAD Technicals: USDCAD falls through 61.8% retracement and tests old ceiling/floor
• Trump says he thinks he already knows the choice for Fed chair
• Trump: China is on schedule in buying US farm products
• I tried Gemini 3 and it’s impressive. Why it could be a gamechanger in markets
• Fed’s Barkin says he hopes coming data will clarity direction of economy
• Goldman Sachs thinks that 2026 will be the pain trade for the oil market
• Bank of American warns on dangerously low cash levels
• US August factory orders +1.4% vs +1.4% expected
• NAHB US November housing market index 38 vs 37 expected
• ADP weekly US employment vs –2500 last week (Confirmed)
• BOE’s Pill: Underlying inflation dynamics in UK are lower than headline suggests
• Canada Oct housing starts 232.8K vs 265.0K expected
• The USD is mixed to start the day and little changed vs the 3 major currency pairs
• investingLive European FX news wrap: The risk sentiment remains cautious

The ADP weekly US employment data showed improvement from prior week at -2.5Kfor the 4-week average vs -11.25K last week. Although still negative, it did show improvement. Later US factory orders came in as expected at 1.4% with durable goods orders also little changed from the 1st release that was released just prior to the October 1 shutdown.

The NAHB US November housing market index rose slightly to 38 from 37

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin spoke and said that the U.S. central bank is grappling with conflicting signals regarding its dual mandate of stable inflation and maximum employment. He expressed hope that upcoming economic data would provide clarity on the economy’s direction. Barkin noted that inflation remains above the target, but consumer resistance to price increases and productivity improvements are acting as mitigating factors against further acceleration. While job growth is down, the labor supply is also slowing, which has kept unemployment stable.

Barkin described the current economic situation as “not a particularly comfortable place to be,” likening it to “docking a boat at night without a lighthouse” due to limited government data availability. He highlighted that credit card data and corporate earnings suggest healthy economic growth, yet some sectors and households are facing difficulties. Although the job market appears balanced overall, Barkin cited recent layoff announcements from major companies like Amazon, Verizon, and Target as reasons for caution, suggesting the labor market might be weaker than official numbers indicate. He emphasized that without compelling data, achieving a broad consensus among Fed officials on future policy actions, such as an interest rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, would be challenging.

The US dollar is closing the day with mixed results. Looking at the major currencies, the USD percentage change is showed:

• EUR: +0.10%
• JPY +0.18%
• GBP +0.10%
• CHF +0.48%
• CAD -0.46%
• AUD -0.22%
• NZD +0.02%

Looking at the US stock market, major indices fell for the 2nd consecutive day and the 4th time in 5 trading days

• S&P index -0.83%
• NASDAQ index -1.21%
• Dow industrial average -1.07%

Nvidia will announce earnings after the close tomorrow. The stock fell -2.81% trading today.

US yields moved lower with the two-year down -3.1 basis point at 3.578%. The 10 year was down -1.6 basis points at 4.117%.

Crude oil moved higher by $0.62 or 1.05% at $60.54. Gold prices rose by $23.15 after yesterday’s fall to $4067.86. Bitcoin rose modestly by $477 to $92,579 after breaking $90,000 briefly today

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

more to come

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude -0.6 mn barrels
• Distillates -1.2 mn bbls
• Gasoline -0.2 mn

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies
• The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. Shut down permitting.

The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

None of this is likely to move markets around too much upon release.

The wages data from Australia will be of interest to the RBA. Officials at the Bank have realised that inflation is sticky high, an acceleration in wages beyond the Q2 result and/or beyoined estiamtes will be troublesome for them.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
• I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.