US is to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China.

• Some analysts view such a move as a “strategic win-win,” arguing that allowing H200 shipments would sustain China’s reliance on U.S. AI infrastructure — and potentially slow down the adoption of domestic alternatives
• The H200 is more capable than the chip China is currently allowed to buy (the H20), which gives it technical appeal for high-demand applications (large-model training, inference, data-center use cases)

Although good news, Jensen Huang, recently said he is not sure China would accept H200 even if restrictions are eased — Beijing may prefer home-grown chips or chips already certified under export rules. Chinese firms and regulators appear increasingly focused on domestic AI-chip makers (like Cambricon Technologies) and building self-sufficiency. There’s growing pressure—both economic and political—on companies not to rely solely on foreign hardware.

Nvidia shares have moved higher and are up $3.90 or 2.15% at $186.46.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Monthly ADP -32k
• Last weekly report -13.5K.
• The weekly 4-week average is 4.75K

From ADP:

For the four weeks ending November 22, 2025, U.S. private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER).

Three times a month, ADP Research publishes preliminary estimates of the week-over-week change in U.S. employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP’s finely tuned, high-frequency data. Data is seasonally adjusted and made available with a two-week lag.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Trump: May make tariff changes to lower some prices
• US November NFIB small business optimism index 99.0 vs 98.3 expected
• China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips – FT
• ECB’s Nagel: AI offers tools to process vast datasets and can improve predictive accuracy
• The JPY is free-falling again despite incoming BoJ rate hike and constant jawboning
• BoJ Governor Ueda: Believe the economy will go back to positive growth in Q4 and beyond
• Germany October trade balance €16.9 billion vs €15.6 billion expected
• FX option expiries for 9 December 10am New York cut
• Japan PM Takaichi: Specifics of monetary policy up to BoJ
• BoJ Governor Ueda: Certainty of BoJ’s outlook materialising is increasing gradually
• What are the main events for today?
• Japan PM Takaichi: Will take appropriate actions on FX if necessary
• investingLive Asia-pacific market news wrap: RBA introduces a clear hawkish bias
• RBA’s Bullock: If data suggests inflation not slowing, that will be considered in February

The most notable mover in the session was the Japanese Yen. The JPY continues to weaken across the board despite the incoming BoJ rate hike and constant jawboning from Japanese officials.

Part of the problem could be that the BoJ waited far too long and it’s now looking to deliver a cautious rate hike right when other major central banks are shifting to a hawkish stance.

The market has also already priced in a rate hike this month and at very least another in 2026, so it’s hard to see the BoJ outhawking the market pricing, leaving limited room for JPY appreciation on a hawkish repricing.

We also got a report from Financial Times saying that Chinese regulators have been discussing ways to permit limited access to H200 chips. No final decision had been made yet though. For context, Trump yesterday announced that the US will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China.

US equity indices weakned a bit on the headline but recovered quickly as this news isn’t new. In fact, China has been implementing restrictions on foreign AI chips like Nvidia, AMD and so on in state-funded data centers to boost domestic tech as they compete with the US.

Lastly, Politico published an interview with Trump in which he said that he may consider changes to tariffs to lower prices. He also said that the willingness to lower interest rates would be a litmus test in the choice of a new Fed chair.

Lowering tariffs further would be certainly bullish for the global economy but at this point it could also stoke inflation given that central banks responded to the negative shock from tariffs with lower interest rates. Therefore, it might be bullish in the short-term but if things get hot, central banks will be forced to tighten again, and that would be negative for risk assets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Would make support for immediately slashing interest rates as a litmus test in the choice of a new Fed chair (well, duh)
• Ukrain hasn’t had an election in a long time
• No question Russia has a stronger position
• On Ukraine: Europe is not handling it well
• Trump declined to rule out troops in Venezuela
• Could extend anti-drug military operations to Mexico and Colombia

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 98.2
• Full report here

An increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from October to 91. An increase in owners reporting uncertainty about capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 10/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Ease Ahead of the Fed Meeting – Dow off 0.45%

US markets eased lower in the latest session as traders grew increasingly wary ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve decision. With fears rising that the Fed may deliver a less dovish message than markets have priced in, risk appetite faded and equities shifted into reverse. The Dow led the declines, slipping 0.45% to 47,739, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.35% to 6,846, and the Nasdaq edged 0.14% lower to 23,545. The shift in expectations pushed the US dollar and Treasury yields higher once again; the DXY gained 0.12% to 99.10, while yields climbed across the curve, with the US 2-year rising 1.5 bps to 3.575% and the 10-year gaining 2.9 bps to 4.164%. Oil prices fell after reports confirmed Iraq had restored output at one of the world’s largest oilfields. Brent dropped 1.96% to $62.50, and WTI fell 2.05% to $58.65 a barrel. Gold also drifted lower, slipping 0.19% to $4,189.23 as higher yields and a stronger dollar reduced investor demand.

Dollar in Focus for FX Traders This Week
In a week full of interest rate calls from some major central banks, there is no doubt about which one will have the biggest effect on the major currency pairs. The RBA, Bank of Canada, and SNB will clearly have impacts on their respective currencies, and there will be good trading opportunities on the crosses, but for the majors, the Fed is likely to dominate moves into the year end and into 2026. Some market players are calling this one of the most contentious Fed meetings in recent times, with updates from various Fed members over the last few weeks adding much fuel to that fire. If we do get the expected cut, the forward guidance that we get from the Dot Plot, Statement, and Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference will be key, with the risk probably still sitting with a much less dovish FOMC for 2026 than the market is expecting and stock markets are hoping for.

Event Calendar Kicks into Action

Today marks the start of a busy few days on the macro front, with key updates from central banks and data due across all three trading sessions. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks off a packed week of central bank activity in the Asian session today; the market is firmly expecting rates to remain on hold, but traders are expecting plenty of volatility around the statement and press conference. Attention then shifts to Europe, where Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks in London, before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings later in the day, both events likely to spark moves in their respective currencies. The New York session sees the first major update out of the US for the week, with the JOLTS job openings data due out for both September and October, with the data offering another key insight into labour market tightness ahead of the Fed.

The post General Market Analysis – 9/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 99.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.1644

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1590

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1679

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 179.93

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 178.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 181.69
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8708
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3162
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3370
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 207.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 20532
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 208.26
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8038

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8098
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 156.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 154.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3733

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3974

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6611

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6572

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5797

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 47,380.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 46,847.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,426.81

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,868.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,488.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,444.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish  

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,920.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 88,893.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,230.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 2,904.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 59.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,149.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,083.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,255.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 9th December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Treasuries are facing pressure as yields have risen. The 2-year benchmark is nearing 3.57% and the 10-year at 4.14% amid expectations of a 25bps rate cut to 3.50-3.75% while inflation remains elevated. The U.S. dollar gained modestly in choppy trading as investors braced for a potentially hawkish Fed stance, reversing some prior defensive positioning against other currencies. No major macroeconomic data releases were highlighted for that specific session, though the broader context included softer prior U.S. indicators like ADP payrolls and ISM price indexes supporting cut hopes.​

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders on December 9, 2025, should monitor the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and statement, expected mid-week, alongside reactions to recent PCE inflation data and upcoming US labor reports. Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are rising, boosting the yen, while China-Japan military tensions add geopolitical risk. Mixed Asian equity performance reflects caution, with focus on policy divergence and gold’s firmness ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s comments.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The dollar traded cautiously, maintaining ground near recent lows as traders awaited the Fed’s December meeting outcome, with expectations of a hawkish-tilted 25 bps rate cut anchoring sentiment and boosting rate-sensitive currencies slightly against the greenback. Upcoming US employment data and the Summary of Economic Projections could sway direction, though liquidity remains thin post-holidays, limiting sharp moves. Overall, the DXY’s bearish tilt persists short term, but resilient labor or sticky inflation might stabilize it above 99.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold held firm near $4,189, supported by Fed rate-cut bets and a softer dollar, with analysts expecting range-bound action on December 9 ahead of the Fed’s pivotal meeting and CPI release; longer-term, prices may climb moderately to the mid-$4,300s by late December on easing policy and safe-haven flows, though stock market strength could cap gains.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Cash Rate (3:30 am GMT)

RBA Rate Statement (3:30 am GMT)

RBA Press Conference (4:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Australian Dollar (AUD) showed strength in recent sessions leading into December 9, 2025, trading near 0.6628-0.6650 against the USD, supported by upbeat household spending data and persistent inflation that has traders paring dovish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ahead of its policy meeting today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks (9:10 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (NZD/USD) traded around 0.5788, marking a 0.23% gain from the prior session, amid forecasts of a potential bullish correction testing resistance near 0.5875 before a possible decline below 0.5365. Positive momentum stemmed from upbeat Chinese trade balance data, supporting the NZD as it approached 0.5800, alongside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish signals after a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25%, hinting at the end of its easing cycle. Over the past month, the NZD strengthened 2.53% against the USD, though it remains down 1.48% over the last year.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen faced mixed pressures on December 9, 2025, trading around USD/JPY 155.87 amid persistent Bank of Japan rate hike speculation for December, bolstered by wage growth and Governor Ueda’s comments, though broader investor bets favor yen weakness despite scheduled Tankan survey data.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil markets opened lower following a 2%+ drop in WTI and Brent prices are driven by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire that could unlock more supply, though talks stalled over territorial and security disputes; this countered support from Fed rate-cut bets, Venezuelan tensions, and prior geopolitical premiums from Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, leaving prices volatile around $59-$62 amid OPEC+ output plans and surplus fears.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
During the Asia session, markets exhibited caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, with Asian stocks slipping, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.11%, South Korea’s Kospi off 0.36%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declining 0.19% while the dollar held steady and Treasury yields rose. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% for the third consecutive meeting, citing recent inflation upticks and economic strength like falling unemployment to 4.3%, though it noted uncertainty in new monthly CPI data.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s sessions hinge on the U.S. Fed-related catalysts and catch-up data post-shutdown, European soft retail metrics, and global GDP resilience forecasts around 3% into 2026, urging vigilance on rate paths and trade risks. Traders should monitor key U.S. economic releases like delayed government data, including jobs reports and FOMC minutes, alongside European indicators such as German retail sales and UK borrowing figures, as markets open amid Fed rate decision anticipation and post-shutdown volatility.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar showed resilience, holding steady amid rising bond yields across Asia, Europe, and the US, with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading above key support levels like 99.00 as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and updated economic projections. The dollar strengthened broadly versus majors, rebounding from early weakness due to higher Treasury yields (10-year at 4.17%) and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts now leaning toward just two more by the end of 2026, while shrugging off ECB hawkishness and positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices hovered around $4,195-$4,196 per ounce, marking a modest recovery of about 0.12-0.13% from the prior day amid a softer US dollar and heightened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, though caution prevailed ahead of US economic data like nonfarm payrolls. Predictions suggest potential upside toward $4,245 or higher if rate-cut bets firm up, with buying dips recommended amid fiscal concerns and trade frictions.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro (EUR) showed resilience, trading around 1.1645-1.1650 against the USD, near its strongest levels since mid-October, amid hawkish ECB comments and expectations of steady Eurozone rates through 2026, contrasting with anticipated US Federal Reserve cuts. European leaders, including UK PM Keir Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz, reported positive progress on utilizing frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction, signaling unified economic pressure on Russia.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The USD/CHF exchange rate stood at approximately 0.8058 as of December 8, marking a slight 0.08% daily increase amid anticipation for the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy decision, with the franc holding near multi-year highs around 0.80 per USD. Traders are positioning ahead of the SNB and Federal Reserve rate announcements, with USD/CHF climbing to a one-week high near 0.8072, reflecting a modest USD rebound and safe-haven flows into CHF amid global uncertainty

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

Monetary Policy Report Hearings (12:15 pm GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound (GBP) traded around 1.3327 against the USD, showing a minimal change of -0.01% from the prior session while stabilizing near a six-week high after last week’s rally. Markets focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, with the GBP giving back some recent momentum amid expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut and persistent resistance near 1.34.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded slightly stronger against the USD, with the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.3851-1.3852, reflecting a minor 0.04% decline from the prior session amid broader USD weakness. This follows recent gains driven by resilient Canadian employment data that beat estimates, pushing the CAD to 10-week highs earlier in the week and reducing expectations for aggressive Bank of Canada rate cuts.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices edged down slightly, with Brent at $62.47 (down 0.03%) and WTI at $58.84 (down 0.07%), extending losses triggered by Iraq’s resumption of production at the massive West Qurna 2 oilfield, which contributes about 0.5% to global supply. Traders remained cautious after WTI’s biggest three-week decline, influenced by equity market weakness and expectations of oversupply.​

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 09 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.17%, Shanghai Composite down -0.15%, Hang Seng down -0.91% ASX down -0.27%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,219.95 (0.06%), Silver at $58.685 (0.51%), Brent Oil at $62.38 (-0.18%), WTI Oil at $58.74 (-0.24%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.171, UK 10-year yield at 4.5290, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8666

News & Data:

• (EUR) Sentix Investor Confidence  -6.2  to -6.2 expected

Markets Update:

 Asian stock markets are mostly lower on Tuesday, tracking the weak performance on Wall Street, as traders remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but traders will closely watch the accompanying statement for hints on further easing next year. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an almost 90 percent chance of a quarter-point cut, but a lower probability of additional cuts early next year.

Australian shares are slightly lower, extending Monday’s losses, with the S&P/ASX 200 drifting near 8,600 as investors await the domestic interest rate decision. Miners such as Rio Tinto and Fortescue are seeing small gains, while oil stocks and several tech names are under pressure. Banks are trading mixed, and Bapcor shares have slumped after cutting earnings guidance. Immutep has surged following a partnership announcement with Dr. Reddy’s.

Japanese stocks are modestly higher, with the Nikkei rebounding despite mixed sectoral performance. Tech companies, including Tokyo Electron, are advancing, while major exporters such as Sony and Panasonic are also firmer.

Other Asian markets show a mixed trend, with China, Hong Kong, and South Korea lower, while Singapore and Indonesia see mild gains. On Wall Street, major averages slipped into negative territory on Monday after an early rally, while European markets were mixed. Crude oil prices declined as the stronger US dollar weighed on commodities.

Upcoming Events:

• 03:00 PM GMT – USD JOLTS Job Openings

The post Tuesday 9th December 2025: Asian Markets Slip as Traders Await Key Fed Policy Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior €15.3 billion
• Exports +0.1% vs -0.5% expected
• Prior +1.4%
• Imports -1.2% vs -0.5% expected
• Prior +3.1%
• Full report here

The German trade surplus expanded in October as exports rose by 0.1% on the month while imports fell by 1.2%. This is not market-moving data and won’t change anything for the ECB.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.