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• Won’t comment on talks with Ueda
• BoJ needs to communicate with the government, but specifics of monetary policy should be left with BoJ
• Expects BoJ to carry out appropriate monetary policies to achieve its price target
• Government bears ultimate responsibility for macroeconomic policy

I feel like she wants to calm the markets by stressing that BoJ is independent in setting monetary policy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Will make appropriate economic, fiscal decisions at appropriate timing while taking into account interest rates, FX and prices
• Watching market moves closely
• Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals
• Difficult to single out impact of fiscal policy on interest rates, FX as they are determined by various factors

Feels like Japanese officials are really getting worried about the JPY weakness despite the incoming BoJ rate hike. I think part of the problem is that they’ve waited for too long and are now considering rate hikes right when the others are shifting to a hawkish stance too.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• RBA decision: Case rate set at 3.60% vs 3.60% expected
• RBA’s Bullock: Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tighten
• Full text of the RBA decision on Dec 9, 2025
• Australian November NAB business conditions +7 vs +9 prior
• UK BRC November retail sales +1.2% y/y vs +1.5% prior
• Trump threatens Mexico tariffs due water treaty violations

Markets:

• Gold flat
• WTI crude oil down 21-cents to $58.67
• US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 4.17%
• S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• Nikkei up 0.2%
• AUD leads, CHF lags

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gambling, sports betting, crypto speculation and now online trading are part of a bigger trend of deregulation of vice and the lack of predictable pathways to succeed in the modern world.

Here is a great essay from John Ehrett on what has young men struggling so badly and turning towards so many high risk behviours. The argument is that the economy is increasingly random. It argues that for Gen Z men, the link between effort and reward has broken, turning life into a low-probability trade where many are checking out and others are taking wild risks for a chance at a comfortable life.

• College admissions are now opaque and random, and there’s a deep sense that it’s rigged by alumni and other connections
• Hiring and resume keywords are an algorithmic black box
• Dating apps have turned romance into a high-frequency trading environment

I’m not sure I agree with some of his solutions but the system needs to stop feeling like a slot machine. The “social contract” has stopped working for young people and it can’t last.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The latest yuan fix is out.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior business conditions +9
• Business confidence +1 vs +6 prior

National Australia Bank, one of the country’s “Big Four” banks. This survey combines three components—trading conditions, profitability, and employment—into a single index that shows whether business activity is expanding or contracting.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +1.5%
• Total sales +1.4% y/y vs +1.6% prior

A separate survey from Barclays put UK consumer spending down 1.1% in November, worse than -0.8% in October. It was also the worst y/y reading since Feb 2021.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is busy on Truth Social today:

Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive Water Treaty, and this
violation is seriously hurting our BEAUTIFUL TEXAS CROPS AND LIVESTOCK.
Mexico still owes the U.S over 800,000 acre-feet of water for failing to
comply with our Treaty over the past five years. The U.S needs Mexico
to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest
must come soon after. As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is
very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water. That
is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico
if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY. The longer Mexico takes to
release the water, the more our Farmers are hurt. Mexico has an
obligation to FIX THIS NOW. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

I’m sure there is more than one side to this story but it’s one that nags at one of the classic geopolitical angsts — water.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Same approach will apply to AMD, Intel and others

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Trump: Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have to
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent We are still working on a trade deal with India:
• Crude oil futures settle at $58.88
• Trump news: WIll provide 12 billion in aid to farmers
• AUDUSD Technicals: The AUDUSD is correcting lower ahead of the RBA rate decision
• U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.614%
• US to allow Nvidia H200 chip exports to China
• Ukraine Zelenskyy: Talks in London were productive
• Japan government downgrades tsunami warning to tsunami advisory after earthquake
• Major European indices close mixed to start the new trading week
• BLS will not publish October PPI report. November to be published on January 14
• New York Fed November survey says one year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.2%
• More on Paramount Skydance bid for Paramount. Jared Kushner involved in helping finance
• 7.2 magnitude earthquake hit off northern Japan
• Paramount Sky Dance launches all cash tender to acquire Warner Bros. for $30/share
• WH Econ Advisor Hassett: We should continue to get the rate down some
• The USD is little changed to kickstart the new trading day.What are the technicals saying?
• investingLive European FX news wrap: ECB’s Schnabel is fine with rate hike bets

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve during the US session, reinforcing demand for the dollar and helping to lift the USD broadly against its major counterparts.

Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates, market sentiment has shifted toward the idea of a hawkish cut — one in which policymakers lower rates but pair the move with firmer guidance on inflation risks and a cautious path for future easing.The rise in yields, combined with the hawkish-leaning policy outlook, boosted the greenback.

Below is a snapshot look of the change of the USD vs the major currencies today:

• EUR, +0.03%
• JPY +0.37%
• GBP +0.05%
• CHF, +0.30%
• CAD, +0.30%
• AUD, +0.23%
• NZD unchanged.

Looking at the US yield curve today, despite a successful 3 year note auction, the yields did move higher across the curve but they are near the middle of the low and high trading range for the day.

• 2-year: 3.58% (+1.7 bps)

• 5-year: 3.75% (+3.5 bps)

• 10-year: 4.17% (+2.9 bps)

• 30-year: 4.81% (+1.8 bps)

Kevin Hassett — the current White House economic adviser and frontrunner to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve — told CNBC that the Fed should continue to “get the rate down some,” stressing the need to watch incoming data carefully because many pieces are still missing. investingLive He praised the current chair for “herding the cats,” but argued real-wage growth and positive supply shocks are the way to restore living standards and anchor long-term growth. Against that backdrop, he suggested there is plenty of room for the 10-year Treasury yield to drop, hinting at possible market support if rates are cut.

In other economic news out of the NY Fed, the New York Fed’s November consumer survey showed that inflation expectations remained stable across all horizons, with the one-year outlook holding at 3.2% and both the three- and five-year measures steady at 3%. Home-price expectations were also unchanged at 3%. Despite that stability, households grew more pessimistic about their current and future financial situations, and expectations for medical-cost inflation surged to the highest level since January 2014. At the same time, labor-market sentiment improved modestly, suggesting consumers see job conditions as a relative bright spot even as broader financial concerns persist.

In other news, a powerful magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck off northern Japan, triggering tsunami warnings and raising concerns about potential infrastructure damage and economic disruption. The shock created a bout of risk aversion in financial markets, which led to selling pressure on the Japanese yen as investors reassessed exposure to Japan and moved capital into safer or higher-yielding assets. That yen weakness helped push USD/JPY higher, and the pair broke above the 200-hour moving average at 155.628, a key technical level that shifts short-term momentum firmly in favor of the dollar. Holding above this moving average keeps the bullish bias intact, with the quake-related uncertainty reinforcing the market’s willingness to sell JPY until conditions stabilize.

U.S. equities finished the session mostly under pressure as defensive positioning, higher Treasury yields, and scattered sector rotation weighed on sentiment:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,739.32 (-215.67, -0.45%)

• S&P 500: 6,846.51 (-23.89, -0.35%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 23,545.90 (-32.22, -0.14%)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It’s decision day for the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Unfortunately for us, the decision itself will be drama free with no change in the 3.60% case target expected whatsoever. What’s starting to get interesting is 2026 as the market is now fully priced for at least one rate hike. At the March meeting, there is a 33% chance of a hike priced in and that could swing today based on Governor Michelle Bullock, who has noted inflationary pressures recently.

The decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later.

Three hours before the RBA decision, we get the November Australian NAB business confidence survey.

That just about wraps up what we’re expecting for the session. Eamonn is out this week and I’m covering for him.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump on Canada says:

• Will end up putting severe tariffs on fertilizer from Canada if they have to

On related trade news, the US ambassador to Canada says:

• Trump does not want to terminate the USMCA trade deal

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.