US Stocks Drift Ahead of Fed Rate Decision – Dow Dips 0.4%

US stock markets eased back on Tuesday as traders moved to the sidelines ahead of today’s all-important Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Dow fell 0.38% to close at 47,560, the S&P 500 dipped 0.09% to 6,840, while the Nasdaq managed a modest 0.13% rise, finishing at 23,576. A stronger-than-expected set of US employment numbers pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with the 2-year yield climbing 4 basis points to 3.615% and the 10-year rising 2.4 basis points to 4.188%. The firmer yield environment helped lift the dollar; the DXY gained 0.14% on the day to settle at 99.23. In commodities, oil markets remained under pressure as renewed optimism over potential progress in Ukraine peace discussions—following meetings between Kyiv and its allies in London—saw Brent crude slip 0.70% to $62.05, while WTI dropped 0.95% to $58.32 a barrel. Gold, meanwhile, pushed back into recent ranges, rising 0.43% to $4,208.21 an ounce as traders sought a safer footing ahead of a packed macro calendar.

Fed Day at Last
Today’s Federal Reserve update has probably been the most highly anticipated central bank meeting of the year, with the volatility in rate moves expectations exceeding all others in the preceding 11 months. With less than a day to go, market expectation sits just under 90% that we will see a further 25-basis-point cut later today. That is up from 70% a month ago, but more crucially up from near 30% around six weeks ago. Most market participants are expecting to see a relatively “cautious cut” today, with a split in the committee well documented. So, a swing either side—i.e., a dovish cut or a hawkish cut—should see some big moves across all financial products. Stock markets have been trading optimistically over the last couple of weeks, indicating that they anticipate more stimulus into 2026, while the bond market has been more cautious. Either way, the possibility of strong corrections is high, and it should be a very lively market into the end of the trading day.

Huge Day Ahead for Investors
Today looks to be shaping up as one of the biggest days of the month for global markets. The Asian session sees the release of key Chinese data with CPI (exp +0.7% m/m) and PPI (exp +2.0% y/y), which should see some good moves in local markets, while the London session has a scheduled update from ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, the New York session looks set to be extremely lively. The Federal Reserve’s rate call towards the end of the day is without doubt the headline event, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is well priced in; Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference shortly after is likely to drive volatility even further. Earlier in the Northern Hemisphere session, the Bank of Canada will deliver its own interest rate decision, with the market firmly expecting them to hold rates at 2.25%. As with the Fed, traders are expecting forward guidance from the statement and subsequent press conference to add further volatility to local markets. US Crude Oil Inventory data is also due out in the session; however, expect the major central bank updates to dominate.

The post General Market Analysis – 10/12/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 99.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1644

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1590

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1679

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 181.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 179.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 183.43
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8749

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8708
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8779
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3262

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3162
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3370
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 207.17

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement

1st support: 205.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 209.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 127.2% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.8038

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7987
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8098
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 156.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 154.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 157.61

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                       

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3890

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3733

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3974

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.6611

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.6572

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.5743

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.5689

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5797

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 47,729.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 46,847.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,411.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 23,868.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 23,488.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 24,444.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish  

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,773.23

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,673.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,920.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 94,626.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 88,893.73

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 100,094.87

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,230.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,904.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,675.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 59.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 57.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 61.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,149.19

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,083.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,255.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Wednesday 10 December 2025: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 December 2025

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. trade was dominated by pre‑FOMC positioning rather than fresh data, with investors weighing the likelihood of a December rate cut against the risk that the Fed guides to a slower easing cycle in 2026. Equity indices slipped modestly from recent highs, U.S. Treasury yields firmed, and the dollar stayed underpinned, while oil and gold traded more quietly as markets awaited clearer policy signals.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Chinese inflation data, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, key U.S. labour and inflation releases, and the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision and press conference, all of which could drive sharp moves in USD, CAD, CNH, equities, and bonds. These come against a backdrop of cautious risk sentiment in Asia as equities have already softened ahead of the Fed, with markets pricing a possible 25 bp cut but watching closely for guidance on the 2026 path for U.S. rates.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Employment Cost Index q/q (1:30 pm GMT)

Federal Funds Rate (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Dollar is trading slightly below the 100 level on the U.S. Dollar Index, reflecting a soft tone after a period of gradual weakening over the past year. Markets are fixated on the FOMC meeting later in the day, where a modest 25 bp “insurance” cut is widely expected as the Fed responds to softer jobs data and rebalanced risks around growth and inflation. Because easing is already partially priced in, traders see the main Dollar risk in the policy message: a more dovish path and deeper cuts could push the Dollar lower, while a surprise hold or hawkish guidance could spark a short squeeze and lift the currency back above the 100 level.​

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Employment Cost Index q/q (1:30 pm GMT)

Federal Funds Rate (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold is trading in a tight consolidation just below record highs today, with spot prices roughly in the low‑4,200s as markets largely price in a Fed rate cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting but remain wary of any hawkish surprise on forward guidance. The macro backdrop of softer US yields and a weaker dollar continues to underpin bullion, while ongoing geopolitical tensions sustain safe‑haven interest, yet technicals show fading short‑term momentum and a sideways structure between roughly 4,050 support and 4,240 resistance that could resolve either into a breakout to new highs if the Fed is more dovish than expected.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

Cash Rate (3:30 am GMT)

RBA Rate Statement (3:30 am GMT)

RBA Press Conference (4:30 am GMT)

What can we expect from AUD today?

Today’s Australian dollar story is dominated by a hawkish‑tilting RBA versus a still‑easing Fed, which keeps the bias for AUD/USD modestly upward while leaving the currency vulnerable to swings in global risk appetite and any surprises in US policy communication. In practical terms, the market treats dips in AUD crosses as potential buying opportunities as long as the cash rate remains at 3.6% and incoming Australian inflation and labour data do not significantly undercut the RBA’s concern about persistent price pressures.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 3.60% at the November 2025 policy meeting, adopting a cautious tone amid a surprise uptick in inflation data for the September quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive pause since the 25 basis point cut in August. The Board attributed some of the inflation rise to temporary factors like higher petrol prices and council rates, but noted signs of more persistent pressures from consumer demand.​
• Policymakers emphasized vigilance on inflation, with trimmed mean inflation expected to remain elevated in the near term before nearing the 2–3% target midpoint by mid-2027. Recent data showed underlying inflation staying above target until at least the second half of 2026, prompting upward revisions to forecasts. Capacity pressures are seen as slightly more pronounced than previously assessed, delaying any easing.
• Headline CPI for the September quarter exceeded expectations, driven partly by temporary items, while underlying measures signal ongoing stickiness. The shift to monthly CPI reporting, with the first full edition in November 2025, will enhance real-time inflation monitoring. Housing and services remain resilient contributors to price pressures.
• Domestic demand shows firmness in services alongside below-trend growth elsewhere, with capacity pressures not expected to ease significantly. The labor market is gradually softening, with unemployment projected to stabilize around 4.4%, though wage growth and productivity dynamics keep unit labor costs a concern. Household spending faces headwinds from high borrowing costs.​
• Global risks include geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility, set against modestly revised-up world growth outlooks. The Board describes its policy as mildly restrictive and data-dependent, balancing inflation control with employment goals. No rate hike was considered despite the inflation surprise.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive to address lingering price stability risks amid household and global vulnerabilities. Communications reaffirm the dual mandate of 2–3% inflation and full employment, with readiness to adjust based on incoming data.​
• Market expectations point to the cash rate holding through early 2026, with a possible modest cut to 3.3% mid-year if inflation eases as forecast. The new monthly CPI data will be key for timely insights.
• Monetary policy remains mildly restrictive, balancing progress on price stability against vulnerabilities in household demand and global outlook. Board communications reaffirm a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, while underscoring readiness to respond should risks materialize sharply.
• Analysts generally expect the cash rate to remain at current levels through early 2026, with only modest cuts possible later in the year if inflation moderates. The new monthly CPI release (first full edition Nov 2025) will be watched closely for timely signals on price trends.
• The next meeting is on 2 to 3 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks (9:10 pm GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

The New Zealand Dollar is trading just under 0.58 against the US Dollar, consolidating near a one‑month high after a solid early‑December rally. The currency remains supported by expectations that the RBNZ has largely finished cutting rates and by improved risk appetite linked partly to stronger Chinese data, although 0.58 is acting as stiff technical resistance and some analysts warn that failure to break higher could trigger profit‑taking. 

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% at its 26 November 2025 meeting, following the widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction from 2.50%, and signaled that policy is now firmly in stimulatory territory while keeping the option of further easing on the table if needed.
• The decision was again reached by consensus, with members judging that the cumulative 325 basis points of easing over the past year warranted a period of assessment, even as several emphasized a willingness to cut further should incoming data point to a more protracted downturn or renewed disinflationary pressures.
• Headline consumer price inflation is projected to hover near 3% in late 2025 before gradually easing toward the 2% midpoint of the 1–3% target band through 2026, supported by contained inflation expectations around 2.3% over the two-year horizon and an expected pickup in spare capacity.
• The MPC noted that domestic demand remains subdued but shows tentative signs of stabilisation, with softer household spending and construction only partially offset by improving services activity; nevertheless, policymakers still expect services inflation to ease as wage growth moderates and the labour market loosens further over the coming year.
• Financial conditions continue to ease as wholesale and retail borrowing rates reprice to the lower OCR, contributing to gradually rising mortgage approvals and improving housing-related sentiment, although broader business credit growth remains patchy and sensitive to uncertainty about the durability of the recovery.
• Recent data confirm that GDP momentum is weak but not deteriorating as sharply as earlier in 2025, with high-frequency indicators pointing to a shallow recovery from a low base and ongoing headwinds from elevated living costs and fragile confidence weighing on discretionary consumption and investment.
• The MPC reiterated that external risks remain skewed to the downside, particularly from softer Chinese demand and uncertainty around United States trade policy, but noted that a lower New Zealand dollar continues to provide some offset via improved export competitiveness and support for tradables inflation.
• Looking ahead to early 2026, the Committee maintained a mild easing bias, indicating that a further cut toward 2.00–2.10% cannot be ruled out if activity fails to gain traction or if inflation undershoots projections, but current forecasts envisage the OCR remaining near 2.25% for an extended period provided inflation converges toward target and the recovery proceeds broadly as expected.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Japanese yen is trading weaker near recent lows as markets wait for fresh confirmation of a Bank of Japan rate hike later in December, with USD/JPY around the mid‑156 area and volatility driven mainly by shifting expectations for U.S.–Japan yield differentials. USD/JPY has edged higher toward about 156.9 as of December 9–10, reflecting renewed dollar strength and modest selling of the yen after its brief recovery earlier this month.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan met on 30–31 October and, by a clear majority vote, decided to maintain its key monetary policy approach for the upcoming period.
• The BOJ will continue to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5%, in line with the prior stance.
• The gradual quarterly reduction in monthly outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) remains intact, with amounts unchanged from the previous schedule. Purchases are set to decrease by about ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, shifting to about ¥200 billion per quarter from April to June 2026, and targeting a ¥2 trillion purchase level for Q1 2027. The bank reaffirmed its intention to maintain flexibility, with readiness to respond if market conditions warrant an adjustment.
• Japan’s economy continues to show moderate recovery, primarily led by solid capital expenditures, although export growth and corporate activity remain restrained by external demand uncertainty and the ongoing effects of U.S. trade policies.
• Annual headline inflation (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the first uptick in four months and staying above the BOJ’s 2% target. Broad-based inflation persists, with food and energy cost pressures, but wage growth continues to support household consumption. Input cost pressures from the earlier surge in imports eased slightly.
• Short-term inflation momentum could moderate as food-price hikes ease, though rent, healthcare, and service-sector price increases tied to labor shortages provide support. Firms and households maintain a gradual upward drift in inflation expectations.
• For the near term, BOJ projects growth below trend as external demand stays subdued and corporate investment plans remain cautious. Still, accommodative financial conditions and steady gains in real labor income will underpin domestic consumption.
• Over the medium term, as overseas economies recover and trade conditions normalize, Japan’s growth potential should improve. Persistent labor market tightness, higher wage settlements, and rising medium- to long-term inflation expectations are expected to keep core inflation on a gradual upward trajectory, converging toward the 2% price stability target later in the forecast horizon.
• The next meeting is scheduled for 18 to 19 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil is trading slightly lower to steady around the high‑50s to low‑60s per barrel region on Wednesday, 10 December 2025, with markets focused on a mix of soft demand expectations, recovering supply, and major central‑bank decisions that could affect future energy consumption. ​Geopolitical risk from the Ukraine conflict and tensions involving Russia and Venezuela is providing a floor under prices, as traders weigh the chance of further disruptions to Russian exports or sanctions changes.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 December 2025

What happened in the Asia session?
China’s November CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and accelerating from October’s 0.2%, while month-on-month it fell 0.1%; PPI declined 2.2% year-on-year, deeper than the forecasted 2.0% drop and extending deflationary pressures. No major Japanese data releases occurred during the session, with focus shifting to later low-impact items like BSI surveys and foreign investment flows. Markets reacted amid anticipation for US Fed decisions, with Asian equities easing: Nikkei down amid yen weakness, Hang Seng falling 1.2% on China price concerns, CSI 300 off 0.91%, and GIFT Nifty signaling a lower open.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Traders must watch the pivotal FOMC rate decision and dot plot at 2:00 PM ET, where markets price a likely 25bps cut amid hawkish dissent risks, potentially sparking volatility in equities, dollar, and rates. The preceding 8:30 AM ET US Employment Cost Index offers critical wage data (last at 3.6% YoY), influencing Fed projections, while subdued European calendars leave focus on sentiment upticks like ESI at 96.8 and China’s looming CPI amid soft Asian opens (CSI 300 -0.91%). Overnight mixed US closes and GIFT Nifty downside signal caution, with no ECB action until later, prioritizing these US catalysts for directional trades.​

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Employment Cost Index q/q (1:30 pm GMT)

Federal Funds Rate (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 99, following a rise to 99.23 on December 9 amid market anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected today, potentially including a 0.25% cut as the third of 2025. Markets remain focused on the Fed’s final meeting of the year, with growing divisions among officials and recent economic data like PCE inflation shaping expectations for policy easing, which has contributed to the dollar’s recent weakness, down 0.36% over the past month and 6.74% yearly.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Employment Cost Index q/q (1:30 pm GMT)

Federal Funds Rate (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Economic Projections (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Statement (7:00 pm GMT)

FOMC Press Conference (7:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold prices showed modest gains amid global market fluctuations, with spot gold trading around $4,212 per ounce after rising 0.54% the previous day, supported by its role as a safe-haven asset during Middle East geopolitical tensions following regime changes in Syria. In Indian markets, 24K gold recovered by ₹180 to ₹77,940 per 10 grams in Delhi, with similar upticks in Mumbai and other cities at ₹77,790, while silver held flat at ₹91,900 per kg due to mixed industrial demand. Traders remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data (CPI) and Federal Reserve decisions expected today, which could influence the dollar and gold’s trajectory, with forecasts suggesting potential declines to around $4,060 if data surprises to the upside.​

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Medium Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (10:55 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

The euro (EUR) traded steadily around 1.1628 against the US dollar, marking a slight 0.01% decline from the prior session but holding near its strongest levels since mid-October amid hawkish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel expressed comfort with market expectations for potential rate hikes, citing upside risks to both growth and inflation, bolstered by robust eurozone business activity expanding at its fastest pace since May 2023 and November inflation ticking up to 2.2%. Diverging monetary policies with the US Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week further supported the euro’s resilience, alongside ongoing Ukraine peace talks that could enhance Europe’s energy security if progress materializes.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
• Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
• Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
• Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
• The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
• Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
• The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
• Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains strong near 2021 highs against the USD at around 0.80-0.8061, with USD/CHF down 0.11-0.15% on December 9 amid safe-haven demand and SNB policy expectations. Traders anticipate the Swiss National Bank to hold rates at 0% in its final 2025 meeting, despite CPI stagnation in November and deflation risks, as officials tolerate temporary negative inflation while eyeing slight rises ahead.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
• Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
• The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
• The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
• Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
• Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
• The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
• The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from GBP today?

The British Pound (GBP) showed modest stability around the $1.33 mark against the USD on December 10, 2025, following a slight dip the previous day amid anticipation of Federal Reserve policy signals and UK economic data. Against the EUR, the pound maintained strength above €1.21 from earlier December peaks, buoyed by Bank of England (BoE) expectations of less aggressive rate cuts compared to the ECB.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
• The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
• Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
• Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
• International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
• The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
• The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
• The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Medium Bullish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

BOC Rate Statement (2:45 pm GMT)

Overnight Rate (2:45 pm GMT)

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar (CAD), or loonie, has shown strength recently, trading above 72 US cents amid anticipation for the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision today, December 10, 2025, where rates are expected to hold steady at 2.25% the low end of its neutral range, while markets price in a Federal Reserve rate cut to 3.75%. Recent jobs data beating estimates for the third month has propelled the CAD to a 10-week high, supported by bullish forecasts targeting 77 US cents by 2026 due to narrowing interest rate differentials with the US, stable oil prices, and positive risk sentiment.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
• The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
• Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
• Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
• Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
• Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
• The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
• The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

On Wednesday, the oil market remained cautious with prices stabilizing after recent declines, driven by Iraq’s quick resumption of output at a major field, offsetting geopolitical tensions from Ukraine talks and U.S.-Venezuela issues; traders await critical IEA and Fed updates amid projections of ample 2026 supply weighing on sentiment. Bearish momentum persists below key supports like $61.95 for Brent, with risks of further declines to $58-60 if oversupply confirms, though Fed decisions could provide short-term support.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 December 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -0.37%, Shanghai Composite down -0.71%, Hang Seng down -0.53% ASX down -0.10%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,238.975 (0.06%), Silver at $61.570 (1.18%), Brent Oil at $62.04 (0.15%), WTI Oil at $58.35 (0.17%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.182, UK 10-year yield at 4.5060, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8519

News & Data:

• (USD) JOLTS Job Openings  7.67M  to 7.14M expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets traded mostly lower on Wednesday, mirroring the mixed cues from Wall Street as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. While the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, uncertainty persists regarding the longer-term rate outlook. Traders will closely examine the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments for future signals. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 87% probability of a quarter-point cut, but expectations for January remain divided.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is slightly lower, weighed by energy stocks and subdued sentiment across most sectors, though mining stocks are providing modest support. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, noting inflation risks. Major miners like Rio Tinto and Mineral Resources posted gains, while oil producers such as Santos and Woodside declined. Tech stocks were mixed, and the big four banks traded mostly lower. Gold miners advanced strongly. The Australian dollar hovered around $0.663.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 also moved lower, reversing earlier gains amid sector-wise mixed performance. Automakers Honda and Toyota rose, while tech firms like Advantest slipped. Exporters such as Panasonic advanced sharply. Producer price data for November met expectations, rising 0.3 percent monthly and 2.7 percent annually. The yen traded in the upper 156-per-dollar range.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets were mostly weak, while Wall Street and European markets ended Tuesday’s session mixed. Crude oil prices fell on renewed Iraqi supply and a stronger US dollar.

Upcoming Events:

• 01:30 PM GMT – USD Employment Cost Index q/q
• 02:45 PM GMT – CAD Overnight Rate

The post Wednesday 10 December 2025: Asian Markets Slip Ahead of Key Fed Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• China November CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% expected
• China likely to cut RRR rate next year – report
• Japan PM Takaichi asked about rising yields, says closely watching market moves
• Zelensky signals Ukaine’s answer to Trumps peace plan will come Wednesday
• Trump: I hear that autopen might have signed the appointments of Fed board governors
• Japan November corporate goods prices index +2.7% vs +2.7% expected
• Japanese Reuters Tankan December manufacturing +10 vs +17 prior
• Trump to kick off final Fed interviews this week: Hassett remains in poll position
• Trump says he will be meeting with “a couple” people for the Fed chair job
• New Zealand October migration +2400

Markets:

• Gold down $3 to $4206
• US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.18%
• WTI crude up 7 cents to $58.32
• S&P 500 futures flat
• JPY leads, NZD lags

There wasn’t much in terms of market moves to start the day. The main one was silver hitting a fresh record high above $61 but it was fleeting move and it’s now given back most of the gains. What got some of the market’s attention was Trump talking about Biden using autopen to appoint Fed Governors. That’s being taken as a joke and it should be noted that they’re approved by Congress so it’s hardly like undoing an executive order. In any case, it’s another example of how badly Trump wants lower rates.

In China, the CPI headline was in-line but the m/m reading was soft and so was PPI. That’s couple with fresh stimulus talk in China and a report about an RRR cut. It all tees up an interesting 2026 as some recent profit taking has hit Chinese stock markets.

Looking ahead, it’s Fed day but we will also look out for Zelensky’s response to Trump’s peace plan. Optimism is low but you never know.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices have been struggling in part due to hopes for peace. Indications from Trump and Russia were that sanctions relief would come with any deal and that would allow Russian crude to flow more freely.

As for the chances of a deal, they’re low but peace after a long war always seems impossible until it does. These things often tend to move quickly and Trump certainly has ways to lean on Ukraine to give up a large part of its territory forever. On the ground, Russia is inching ahead but Ukraine has little capability to mount any kind of counter-attack. They’re having some success on raising the economic toll on Russia but that’s a tough way to win a war against a country that’s seen surprisingly strong economic growth since the outset of the conflict.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Important for currencies to move in stable manner, reflective fundamentals
• Will take appropriate action of excessive, disorderly moves

At what point does some serious worry hit the Japanese debt market? It’s no fun losing money on 10-year notes day after day.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +0.2%
• m/m CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% exp
• PPI -2.2% vs -2.0% y/y

This is a step in the right direction but the PPI still shows falling prices and the m/m CPI.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump may be looking to stack the Fed.

If Trump goes down this path it would be bearish for the US dollar and wildly bullish for precious metals and hard assets. The long end would hate it and there would be a big steepener.

Biden appointed:

• Jefferson
• Barr
• Cook
• Kugler

Kugler has already resigned and been replaced by Miran.

If Trump were to replace the other three and the chair, he would have enough votes to do whatever he wanted, presuming that Waller, Bowman and Miran continued to back his agenda. It would be the end of Fed independence.

I don’t think the market will take this too seriously but this is floating a major shakeup to monetary policy and it would be an atomic bomb.

Talk like this might lead Powell to stay on as a Governor when his term expires.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• m/m reading +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
• Prior m/m reading was +0.4%

The pricing on next week’s BOJ decision is 77% for a cut, that’s risen since last week when it was 66%. This number won’t sway any opinions but it highlights inflation pressures well above the historic low prices in Japan.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior manufacturing +17
• Non-manufacturing vs +27 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.