Articles

• ECB’s de Guindos: Risks to growth are balanced
• Dovish hold, or hawkish cut: that is the question
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• UK November flash services PMI 50.5 vs 52.0 expected
• Eurozone November flash services PMI 53.1 vs 52.8 expected
• Germany November flash manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs 49.5 expected
• ECB’s Lagarde: Will continue adjust policy as needed to ensure inflation remains at target
• France November flash services PMI 50.8 vs 48.4 expected
• France November business confidence 98 vs 100 expected
• Japan Finance Minister: Will pursue a responsible fiscal policy, not just a proactive one
• UK October retail sales -1.1% vs +0.0% m/m expected
• FX option expiries for 21 November 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?
• Takaichi: Japan may issue bonds for stimulus but total JGB supply to stay below last year

The main highlight of the session was the release of the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The Eurozone PMIs were good, but the UK ones were soft. The UK Retail Sales data, released before the PMIs, was also weak across the board.

The data didn’t change much in terms of market pricing as the ECB is still seen on hold, while the BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps at the upcoming meeting in December.

Another notable news were the comments from the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama which gave the JPY a boost as she said that they would pursue a responsible fiscal policy and that total bond issuance this fiscal year would be below last fiscal year’s.

Lastly, we heard from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB Vice President de Guindos, but both of them just reaffirmed the central bank’s neutral stance.

In the markets, the risk sentiment remains on edge with the US equities and bitcoin trading near the lows of the day. The US dollar is higher on the day, while precious metals like gold and silver are down.

In the American session, we get the Canadian
Retail Sales data, the Flash US PMIs and the final UMich consumer
sentiment. The most market-moving release should be the Flash US PMIs.
In fact, the BoC is now on the sidelines and a poor or strong retail
sales report is not going to change that. The final UMich data is rarely
market-moving as the market likes fresh information i.e. the
preliminary figures.

The US Flash PMIs could be
market-moving, although I don’t see how they could change things
materially at this point unless they are very strong or very weak. The
market is pricing roughly a 30% chance of a December cut, which makes it
unlikely but keeps some hopes alive in case other data shows weakness
or Fed members signal a cut before the blackout period starting next
Saturday.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The last Fed Chair Powell’s press conference marked a top in risk sentiment as the infamous words “a December cut is not a foregone conclusion – in fact, far from it” triggered a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

The stock market has been drifting lower ever since as the chances for a December cut kept on falling. Depending on the context, a hawkish repricing is generally negative for the stock market, especially when the market is overstretched.

The problem now is that the stock market is what could break the economy, so the Fed will need to walk a fine line to avoid a recession. In fact, with this latest selloff, the total easing by the end of 2026 has actually increased a little.

This is because the market is thinking that a continuous selloff in the stock market is going to weigh a lot on sentiment and economic activity, and eventually require more or more aggressive rate cuts. If you consider the K-shaped economy narrative, you can see how the upper part depends on the stock market.

This is why I think that if the Fed is going to hold rates steady, it’s going to do so by delivering a dovish hold. The December meeting will come with fresh economic projections and the Fed could signal a more dovish future outlook by increasing the projected rate cuts in 2026 from 1 to 2 or even 3.

This leads me to expect a trough in the bearish risk sentiment here as from an asymmetric view, I think the downside is now limited and we could see a rebound (famous last words).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 24/11/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down -2.17%, Shanghai Composite down -1.88%, Hang Seng down -2.16% ASX down -1.40%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,055.56 (-0.09%), Silver at $94.530 (-1.55%), Brent Oil at $62.58 (-1.26%), WTI Oil at $58.18 (-1.39%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.094, UK 10-year yield at 4.5890, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7194

News & Data:

• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  119K  to 53K expected
• (USD) Unemployment Rate  4.4%  to 4.3% expected

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets are sharply lower on Friday, tracking the negative cues from Wall Street as investors dial back expectations for a U.S. Fed rate cut in December. The long-delayed September jobs report showed higher unemployment alongside stronger-than-expected job growth, prompting fresh concerns about inflation and monetary policy. Fears of an AI-driven valuation bubble also continue to weigh on sentiment. This follows a mostly higher finish for Asian markets on Thursday.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 has reversed the prior session’s gains and is trading well below 8,450, dragged down by broad weakness in mining, energy and technology stocks. Major miners such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are all sharply lower, while tech names like Block and Zip are also under pressure. Banks and gold miners are seeing notable declines as well. Shares of Accent Group and Lovisa are tumbling after disappointing updates. Economic data was more upbeat, with Australia’s services and manufacturing PMIs improving in November.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is also sharply lower, falling more than 2 percent as heavyweight tech stocks slump. SoftBank and Advantest are among the biggest laggards, while automakers Toyota and Honda are posting modest gains. Inflation data for October met expectations, while the country’s trade deficit narrowed slightly.

Elsewhere, markets in South Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong are firmly lower, while Wall Street ended Thursday deep in the red as major U.S. indices reversed early gains and finished near session lows.

Upcoming Events:

• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
• 02:45 PM GMT – USD Flash Services PMI

The post Friday 21th November 2025: Asian Markets Tumble as Rate Cut Hopes Fade and Tech Sell-Off Deepens first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Equities Drop Again After Employment Data – Nasdaq down 2.15%

US stocks slid again in yesterday’s session, with all three major indices finishing firmly in the red. The pullback came as the initial boost from Nvidia’s upbeat earnings faded and investors refocused on the mixed September jobs report, which showed stronger headline job creation but an unwelcome rise in the unemployment rate. The Dow Jones dropped 0.84% to close at 45,752, while the S&P 500 fell 1.56% to 6,538, and the Nasdaq led the declines with a 2.15% fall to 22,078. Treasury yields fell after the numbers, with the 2-year yield dropping 5.9 basis points to 3.533%, and the 10-year slipping 5.2 basis points to 4.084%. Despite lower yields, the US dollar remained firm, with the DXY edging up 0.05% to 100.23, keeping it near its strongest levels of the year. Commodities were weaker across the board. Brent fell 0.58% to US$63.13, while WTI crude declined 0.83% to US$58.76, as ongoing US diplomatic pressure for progress in the Russia–Ukraine conflict continued to weigh on sentiment. Gold had a rare quiet day, inching up just 0.02% to US$4,077.19 by the NY close, marking one of its most range-bound sessions in weeks.

Mixed Employment Data Locks in Live December Fed Meeting

The first US employment numbers for a couple of months came in mixed overnight, with the headline Non-Farms employment change printing at +119k, smashing expectations, which had been around the +60k mark. However, the Average Hourly Earnings number came in at 0.2% against an expected 0.3%, and the Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.4%. We had mixed reactions across financial markets, with Treasury yields pulling back after the data and stocks slumping, while the dollar held its ground against the majors to push toward annual highs. Fed rate-cut expectations had dipped to around 30% on the previous day, but they have blipped up to near 40%, which means that the Fed meeting in December at the moment falls very much in the “live” category. We will have more data following in the coming weeks, but if we see more mixed messages from the figures, then expect a very turbulent market day on December 10th.

Busy Day to End the Trading Week

It shapes up as a busy end to the trading week, with a heavy run of data scheduled across the European and US sessions and several central bank speakers expected to provide further clues on policy direction. The Asian session is relatively quiet, but the data starts to come thick and fast as soon as London comes in. There are a raft of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI numbers due out today, with data from France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US all likely to move markets. The London session also sees the release of the latest UK Retail Sales data (exp. -0.1% m/m). The New York session also sees Retail Sales numbers out of Canada, with the market expecting the headline to show a 0.7% month-on-month decline and the Core data a 0.5% pullback. We also hear from several central bankers during the course of the latter two sessions, with the SNB’s Martin Schlegel and the ECB’s Christine Lagarde featuring earlier in the day, and Fed members Barr, Miran, Jefferson, and Logan all speaking later on.

The post General Market Analysis – 21/11/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior 52.3
• Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 49.2 expected
• Prior 49.7
• Composite PMI 50.5 vs 51.8 expected
• Prior 52.2

Key Findings:

• UK private sector growth eases in November, while
  output price inflation softens to 59-month low

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence:

“November’s flash PMI surveys brought disappointing news on
the UK economy. Economic growth has stalled, job losses have
accelerated, and business confidence has deteriorated.

“The PMI is broadly consistent with no change in GDP in
November and a meagre 0.1% quarterly pace of growth so far in
the fourth quarter.

“Some of this malaise has been blamed on paused spending
decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, but there’s a real
chance this pause may turn into a downturn. The drop in
confidence about the year ahead reflects growing concerns
that business conditions will remain tough in the coming
months, largely linked to speculation that further demand-
dampening measures will be introduced in the Budget.

“Concerns over the inflation outlook will meanwhile be further
assuaged by a marked drop in selling price inflation to the
lowest for nearly five years. Faced by weak demand and
intensifying competition, firms are cutting prices to win sales.
Prices charged for goods fell at the sharpest rate since 2016,
and service providers are likewise reporting much-reduced
pricing power. While this is good news for inflation, it’s bad news
for business profits, hiring and investment.

“The PMI data therefore suggest the policy debate will shift
further away from inflation worries toward the need to support
the struggling economy, hence adding to the chances of
interest rates being cut in December.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 53.0
• Manufacturing PMI 49.7 vs 50.2 expected
• Prior 50.0
• Composite PMI 52.4 vs 52.5 expected
• Prior 52.5
• Full report here

Key Findings:

• November sees further solid expansion of eurozone business activity

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“For months the manufacturing sector of the eurozone has been marooned in a no -man’s land of directionlessness.
Production has picked up slightly since March of this year, but the overall situation has not improved during this period.
Companies continue to face weak demand, which is reflected in a slight decline in new orders.

In this environment,
companies have reduced their inventories of both intermediate goods and finished goods even more sharply than in the
previous month, meaning that the inventory cycle continues to show no signs of turning upward. We are still several months,
and possibly even several quarters, away from sustained expansion in the manufacturing sector.
In the manufacturing sector, Germany and France are moving in the same direction – unfortunately, it is the wrong one, with
the index falling markedly in both.

In the two largest economies in the eurozone, companies are suffering from declining
order intake. In terms of production, Germany remains just within the expansion range, while in France the contraction in
output has recently accelerated. If the political situation were to stabilize in the long term, companies would probably feel
liberated to invest more, resulting in growing production. However, the political situation remains complicated, meaning that
the eurozone is unlikely to receive any positive impetus from this quarter in the short term.
The service sector in the eurozone is a ray of hope.

Although business activity growth in Germany has slowed significantly,
French service providers have returned to growth. All in all, the eurozone is more or less maintaining its relatively robust
expansion rate. Although the manufacturing sector is dampening growth performance, the high weight of the service sector
in the overall economy means that the eurozone as a whole should grow faster in the final quarter than in the third quarter.

The acceleration of cost inflation in the service sector is unlikely to go down well with the ECB. However, at the same time,
sales price inflation in this sector has slowed, so that, on balance, the headaches for monetary policymakers, who are
paying particular attention to the rate of inflation among service providers, should be limited. There is no reason to tighten
monetary policy. We expect interest rates to remain unchanged in December.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 49.6
• Services PMI 52.7 vs 54.0 expected
• Prior 54.6
• Composite PMI 52.1 vs 53.5 expected
• Prior 53.9
• Full report here

Key Findings:

• Business activity growth softens in November

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“These figures are a major setback for Germany. In the manufacturing sector, the headline PMI has fallen deeper into
contraction territory and now signals a slowdown in this part of the economy. Although production is slightly higher than in
the previous month, new orders have now declined sharply after broadly stabilising in October. At least there is still growth in
the service sector, but hopes that the rate of expansion would pick up speed here have vanished into thin air with the
marked decline in the index. Overall, the German economy is limping towards marginal growth at best in the fourth quarter.

“Production in the manufacturing sector rose for the ninth month in a row, but momentum has been slowing for two months
now. The slump in new orders, especially from abroad, is also an indication that the final month of the year will more likely
see a downward rather than an upward trend.

“Manufacturing companies are looking to the future with significantly more confidence and expect to have increased their
production in a year’s time. This is likely to be driven by hopes that relatively high growth can be expected in the coming year
in the defence industry and in machinery used for civil engineering infrastructure projects. These are the areas where the
government plans to channel debt-financed funds.

“Growth in the service sector has cooled, but new business has ticked up for the second month running, and hiring
continues, just more cautiously than before. Overall, moderate growth is expected in the service sector in the current
quarter.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 48.
• Manufacturing PMI 47.8 vs 49.0 expected
• Prior 48.8
• Composite PMI 49.9 vs 48.1 expected
• Prior 47.7
• Full report here

Key Findings:

Comment:

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior 101
• Services sector confidence 98 vs 95 prior

A little miss here but it’s not a market-moving report and it certainly won’t change anything for the ECB.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Can’t comments on expected size of additional bond issuance to fund the latest package
• Believe markets have stabilised after various announcements
• Various factors contribute to market developments
• Don’t believe latest package is sufficiently big to ignite demand-driven inflation

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.5%; revised to +0.7%
• Retail sales +0.2% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.0%
• Retail sales ex autos, fuel -1.0% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• Prior +0.6%; revised to +0.7%
• Retail sales ex autos, fuel +1.2% vs +2.5% y/y expected
• Prior +2.3%; revised to +1.7%
• Full report here

These are all big misses and the initial reaction saw of course the GBP falling across the board.

From the agency: “The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to
have risen by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025 compared with
the three months to July 2025. Clothing store sales rounded off a strong
performance in those three months, peaking in September, while computer
and telecommunication retailers rose across September and October 2025.”

“Retail
sales volumes are estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in October 2025,
following an increase of 0.7% in September 2025 (revised up from a 0.5%
rise in our previous publication) and of 0.5% in August 2025 (revised
down from a 0.6% rise in our previous publication). This was the first
monthly fall since May 2025. Supermarkets, clothing, and mail order
retailers fell in October 2025, which some retailers attributed to
consumers delaying their spending in the lead up to Black Friday.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.