• U.S. December budget deficit was $145B, versus $150B expected and $87B in December 2024

• U.S. December budget outlays were $629B, up from $541B in December 2024 – Treasury

• U.S. December budget receipts were $484B, down from $454B in December 2024

• U.S. December net customs receipts were $27.89B

• U.S. fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit is $602B, compared with $711B for the same period in fiscal 2025

SUMMARY:

The U.S. ran a $145 billion budget deficit in December, slightly smaller than the $150 billion expected, but sharply wider than the $87 billion deficit recorded in December last year. The deterioration YoY was driven by a surge in federal spending, with outlays hitting a record $629 billion for the month, compared with $541 billion a year earlier. At the same time, government receipts totaled $484 billion, up from $454 billion last year, but the increase in revenue was not enough to keep pace with spending growth.

One bright spot came from customs receipts, which reached $27.9 billion, reflecting the impact of higher tariffs and import activity. On a broader fiscal basis, however, the government is still running very large deficits. Fiscal 2026 year-to-date borrowing now totals $602 billion, though that is better than the $711 billion deficit recorded over the same period in fiscal 2025.

Bottom line: Spending is accelerating faster than revenue, keeping deficits large even as tariff income helps on the margin — a backdrop that continues to support higher Treasury supply and structural pressure on U.S. debt levels.

Meanwhile, Trump is speaking in front of the Detroit Economic Club. It is the “Best of” so far.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is a fine line between a structural bull case and a physical impossibility; at least in the media and some overly-enthusiastic analysts.

Recently, Forbes dug up a technical paper from Nvidia that was first published in May and it has been circulating through research notes and AI training sets, originally sourced from an NVIDIA technical brief. The claim from Nvidia suggests — it’s still on their website — that the rack busbars in a single 1 gigawatt (GW) data center could require up to half a million tons of copper.

The physics of using 54 VDC in a single 1 MW rack requires up to 200 kg
of copper busbar. The rack busbars alone in a single 1 gigawatt (GW)
data center could require up to half a million tons of copper. Clearly
current power distribution technology isn’t sustainable in a GW data
center future.

Tat sounds like the ultimate catalyst for the commodities market and copper has been hitting records. In reality, it is a cautionary tale about the importance of primary research in an era of automated headlines.

If the “half a million tons” figure were accurate, a single 1 GW data center would consume 1.7% of the world’s annual copper supply. If we built 30 GW of capacity—a reasonable projection for the AI build-out—that sector alone would theoretically absorb almost half of all the copper mined on Earth.

Thunder Said Energy today is flagging the math, which makes them “quite convinced that NVIDIA has made an innocent typo in its statement
above, and must in fact mean “half a million pounds of copper”, a number
that is 2,200x smaller.”

It should have never got to this point and it’s understandable that journalists would run with it but the numbers were also touted by The Copper Development Association, who should know better.

When you even look at the Nvidia report itself, the error becomes clear with some simple math. It says standard rack architectures use approximately 200kg of copper per megawatt.

• 1 GW (1,000 MW) x 200kg = 200,000kg

• 200,000kg = 200 Metric Tons.

The discrepancy between 200 tons (the reality) and 500,000 tons (the claim) is a factor of 2,500x. It is almost certain that the original document intended to say “half a million pounds”—which equates to roughly 226 tons—and a simple unit conversion error.

That this number was circulated so widely is worrisome if you’re a copper bull (as I have been for years). We are certainly headed towards undersupply and it can’t be fixed because of long build and permitting timelines for mines. But that’s not a problem for 2026 and so with prices rising and a reach-for-headlines, there is a risk that it’s over-inflated in the short term.

That’s something Goldman Sachs warned about late last year when they said any copper breakout will be short lived.

The real bull case for copper remains compelling. Between grid upgrades, EV expansion, and data center cooling systems, the upside demand is estimated at a very healthy 400,000 to 800,000 tons per year. That is a significant, market-tightening figure—but it is a far cry from the accidental “copper apocalypse” suggested by the typo.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is speaking and with so many balls in the air, his comments are of market interest.

• Says we have a bad Fed Chair.
• Will pick a new Fed Chair in the next few weeks.

On Iran:

• When asked about hell on the way to Iran, says you are going to find out.
• He says it is a good idea if Americans about away from Iran.
• Says Canada wants a USMCA Trump says we don’t need it. (of course it was an agreement he made with Canada)

In other news,

The US treasury auctioned off $22 billion of 30 year bonds

The auction was met with strong demand:

• WI level at the time of the auction was 4.833%.
• High-yield came in at 4.825%
• Tail -0.8 basis points versus 6 month average of +0.5 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.42x vs 6 month average 2.34X
• Directs 21.3% vs 6 month average of 23.9%
• Indirects 66.77% versus 6 month average of 63.7%
• Dealers 11.9% versus 6 month average of 12.4%.

A look around other markets shows the major stock indices are lower. Yesterday the down S&P closed at record levels.

• Dow industrial average -0.78%
• S&P index -0.37%
• NASDAQ index -0.21%

Yields are moving lower helped by the strong auction:

• 2-year yield 3.524%, -2.3 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.737%, -2.9 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.167%, -2.0 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.828%, -1.2 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump said on Truth Social that all the meetings with Iran’s officials have been cancelled and exhorted the Iranian people to keep protesting because help was on its way.

For some context, the protests in Iran represent one of the most significant challenges to the Islamic Republic’s authority in decades. The unrest was ignited by a catastrophic currency collapse, with the rial plummeting to over 1.4 million per USD, and a sharp hike in fuel prices. However, the protests quickly evolved into a broad rejection of the leadership.

Just yesterday we got reports from Axios that Trump was floating the idea of outright strikes to weaken the Iranian regime, although it was also followed by less aggressive plans. Trump has also threatened to impose 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

It looks like the US President wants to fully take advantage of the protests to either overthrow the current regime or force them to sign deals on US terms.

Trump’s post triggered some risk aversion in the market with US stocks falling to session lows, crude oil extending gains and US dollar erasing earlier losses.

On the daily chart above, we can see that the focus switched pretty quickly from Venezuela to Iran. Crude oil futures weakened following the capture of Maduro but then started to edge higher as the protests in Iran intensified and the US promised support to Iranian people.

The price broke out of a major falling channel and rose above the key 60.50 swing level. There’s no strong resistance until the 66.00 handle now. All eyes are on the US and Iran now as a military action would trigger a strong rally in oil prices and potentially a broad wave of risk aversion.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• August New Home sales 0.800M
• October New home sales 0.737M vs 0.7200 estimate
• September new home sales was 0.738M
• The months’ supply is virtually unchanged from the September 2025 estimate of 7.9 months, and is 15.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the October 2024 estimate of 9.3 months.

• Median new-home price: $392,300, down 3.3% from September and 8.0% lower than October 2024, showing clear cooling in typical home prices.

• Average new-home price: $498,000, up 3.0% from September but still 4.6% below a year ago, reflecting a mix of higher-priced homes without reversing the broader downtrend.

• Price trend: Year-over-year declines in both median and average prices confirm housing disinflation is continuing.

• Macro impact: Cooling home prices reduce shelter inflation pressure, supporting lower long-term yields and giving the Fed more room to stay patient on rate cuts.

The data is from October. The last I checked, it is January. The New-home sales data is still delayed because of the lingering effects of the 2025 U.S. government shutdown and the resulting backlog at the Census Bureau. This gap is a direct result of the shutdown halting data collection and reporting operations for several weeks. To fill that void, some third-party estimates (like the MBA Builder Application Survey) have been used, but the official Census Bureau figures remain unpublished for those months.

President Trump recently announced a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) with the goal of pushing mortgage rates lower and improving housing affordability. Rather than the Federal Reserve buying bonds, this plan uses the large balance sheets and liquidity of the two government-sponsored enterprises to create demand for MBS, which tends to raise bond prices and reduce yields, and in theory can pull mortgage rates down modestly. The directive has already contributed to mortgage rates dipping below 6% — a level not seen in several years — providing some immediate relief to borrowers and potential refinance candidates.

While this move can narrow spreads and support rate declines in the short term, its overall impact may be limited because $200 billion represents a small fraction of the much larger MBS market. The effect is likely to be more modest than the Federal Reserve’s massive bond-buying programs during the pandemic, which drove rates sharply lower. Moreover, long-term results depend on execution, timing of purchases, and broader economic conditions.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%
• CPI M/M +0.3% vs 0.3% expected
• Prior +0.3%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.7% expected
• Prior +2.6%
• Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.2%
• US Supercore CPI M/M +0.29% vs +0.35% prior

We have a dovish surprise here as Core CPI figures came on the lower end of the forecasts. The market was pricing 52 bps of easing by year-end but that has increased to 57 bps now.

In the markets, we have of course a classic dovish reaction with US stocks rising, US dollar falling, precious metals increasing gains and US yields dropping.

The data confirms the easing seen in November when the much lower than expected numbers were taken with a pinch of salt due to shutdown related issues.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• U.S. private employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week

The pace of job gains edged up from the prior week (revised to 11.K from 11.0K last week) . These numbers are preliminary and could change as new data are added.

Below is a look at the trend since October. The values are near recent highs suggesting growth but modest growth.

The NER Pulse is an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These estimates are based on ADP’s finely tuned, high-frequency data. The data are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends.

The NER Pulse, including 12 weeks of historical data, publishes every Tuesday at 8:15 a.m. ET, except weeks when ADP Research publishes the monthly National Employment Report which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Nasdaq Technical Analysis: The compression points to big moves once we get a breakout
• US small business optimism rises to a 3-month high on expected better economic conditions
• What is the distribution of institutional forecasts for the US CPI?
• What Is MT4 – A Beginner’s Guide to MetaTrader 4 Trading
• Crude oil extends gains as the risk of US strikes on Iran raises the geopolitical premium
• Reminder: Earnings season kicks off in Wall Street today
• USDJPY rises to the highest level since July 2024 as snap election renewes fiscal fears
• US inflation in December likely to have rebounded sharply – Morgan Stanley
• What are the main events for today?
• FX option expiries for 13 January 10am New York cut
• Silver Technical Analysis Now
• Japan economy minister Kiuchi defends government’s fiscal policy path
• Dollar’s safe haven status continues to lose appeal – SocGen
• Japan PM Takaichi reportedly states intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house
• USD/JPY tests one-year high as yen struggles drag on in the new year

It’s been a pretty boring session in terms of news flow and market moves. The only notable news we got was early in the session when it was reported that Japanese PM Takaichi has conveyed to a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house. That could set up for a snap election in either early or the middle of February. The next ordinary Diet session is scheduled for 23 January and that is the timing in which Takaichi is reported to be making this call. This is just a confirmation of similar reports we got on Friday,

In terms of market moves, it’s been pretty quiet all around. Crude oil has been the only outlier as tensions between US and Iran continue to increase the geopolitical risk premium and drive prices higher. Just yesterday, we got reports that Trump considered strikes on Iran and late in the evening he threatened 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran.

Other than that, not much has happened as traders await the US CPI report at 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET. Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior.

The Fed signalled a pause at the last policy decision by adding the line saying “in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks”.

As a reminder, the Fed projected just one rate cut this year, while the market is still betting on two, with the first one expected in June. The latest NFP report saw the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% vs 4.6% prior. The data was overall good and reaffirmed the Fed’s patient stance.

Barring another notable weakening in the labour market, inflation data is what is likely to determine the extent of Fed’s policy easing this year. In the bigger picture, the Fed’s reaction function remains dovish, so we would need strong reasons for them to consider rate hikes. For now, the worst case scenario is that they hold rates higher for longer.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• US NFIB 99.5 vs 99.2 expected
• Prior 99.0
• Full report here

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98, as reported by the agency. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism. While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”

Small business optimism rose to the highest level since 2020 in December 2024 but tumbled in the first half of 2025 due to Trump’s trade war. As Trump folded on aggressive tariffs and started lowering them to more reasonable levels, small business optimism picked up and continues to do so helped by improving economic conditions and Fed’s rate cuts.

What is the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index?

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of small business owners. It is produced by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the largest small-business advocacy group in the country.

Because small businesses employ nearly 50% of the private workforce and contribute significantly to GDP, this index is considered a leading indicator. It can signal shifts in the economy before they show up in broader government data.

While it is sometimes called a “tier-2” or “tier-3” indicator (meaning it moves the market less than the NFP or CPI), it offers unique insights that others miss:

• Hiring Predictor: The “Plans to Increase Employment” component is a highly accurate preview of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report.

• Inflation Warning: The survey tracks how many owners are planning to raise prices, which often predicts future CPI spikes.

• The “Main Street” vs. “Wall Street” Gap: Sometimes the stock market is booming while small businesses are struggling with credit and costs; this index highlights that disconnect.

• Political Sensitivity: Small business owners are highly sensitive to changes in tax law and regulation, making the index a mirror for how the business community views current government policy.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 January 2026

What happened in the Asia session?
Asia’s session reflected resilience with equities and gold advancing amid Fed scrutiny and geopolitical noise from Iran, pressuring oil lower and yen notably weaker, though major data releases were sparse beyond trade/GDP previews looming for China later in the week.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Markets react to ongoing U.S. political pressures on the Federal Reserve, including a Justice Department probe into Chair Jerome Powell and President Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, which hammered bank stocks like Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Capital One last week.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The US dollar showed mixed performance amid ongoing market volatility following a weak 2025 and heightened scrutiny on Federal Reserve policies. Forecasts indicated potential declines against the euro, with EUR/USD testing resistance near 1.1705 before a projected rebound downward to around 1.1535, reflecting bearish short-term trends driven by selling pressure on the euro.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
• The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labour market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
• Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
• Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in Q2 2025, according to revised estimates. However, Q3 and Q4 are expected to face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions, such as the government shutdown.
• September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signalling a gradual disinflation path. Updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
• The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labour market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.​
• The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
• The next meeting is scheduled for  27 to 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)

Core CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)

CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)

New Home Sales (3:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold (XAUUSD) prices surged to new record highs around $4,600 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, as well as concerns over Federal Reserve independence following threats from the US Justice Department and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Next 24 Hours Bias   
Strong Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro saw limited movement today amid ongoing EU political tensions and trade developments. The EUR/JPY pair exhibited upward momentum, recovering from prior weekly losses primarily due to yen weakness, while broader euro area economic sentiment remains cautious amid external pressures like global trade shifts

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 4–5 January 2026 meeting, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision aligns with the assessment that the current stance supports medium-term price stability, as inflation edges below the 2% target while growth shows resilience amid balanced risks. Markets and commentary indicate value in holding steady, with no fixed path ahead given uncertainties in data.
• Price dynamics remain stable near target levels. Headline HICP inflation stood at 2.1% in November 2025, with projections for 1.9% in 2026 driven by base effects from energy and easing non-energy components. Services inflation persists somewhat elevated but trends toward moderation, alongside contained food pressures.
• December 2025 Eurosystem staff projections confirm headline inflation at 2.1% for 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 before nearing 2% in 2028. Downside risks from soft producer prices and anchored expectations offset potential upsides from geopolitics or fiscal measures.
• Euro area GDP growth remains resilient at subdued levels, with Q3 2025 at 0.3% qoq and forecasts around 1.2-1.4% for 2025-2027. Surveys signal stabilization, bolstered by public investment and external demand against softer private spending.
• The labour market stays tight overall, with unemployment steady at 6.4% through October 2025, near historic lows and solid participation. Real incomes support consumption as inflation eases, with credit conditions aiding gradual household and firm expansion.
• Business sentiment reflects caution over US policy, trade tensions, and tariffs, tempered by easing supply chains and a competitive euro. Export sectors gain a modest lift, while domestic drivers like investment build momentum.
• The Governing Council will continue to make data-dependent decisions meeting by meeting, assessing inflation outlook, underlying trends, and transmission. Both hikes and cuts remain possible based on data, avoiding preset paths amid uncertainties.
• Balance sheet normalization proceeds steadily, with APP and PEPP portfolios shrinking post-reinvestment halts, at a pace deemed suitable without market strain.

​The next meeting is on 4 to 5 February 2026

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CHF today?

The Swiss Franc advanced as a safe-haven currency, with USD/CHF dipping below 0.8000 to around 0.7990 amid heightened geopolitical risks from US-Iran tensions and domestic US scrutiny on Federal Reserve independence, compounded by softer-than-expected US payrolls; meanwhile, Switzerland’s mild inflation uptick to 0.1% YoY reinforced SNB’s dovish policy stance, limiting CHF downside despite broader USD weakness.

Central Bank Notes:

• At its 11 December 2025 monetary policy assessment, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0%, extending the pause that began in September as the Governing Board judges that current settings are sufficient to keep inflation near, but still below, its target while avoiding an unnecessary move into negative rates.
• Recent data show that the tentative rebound in Swiss inflation has stalled, with headline CPI easing from 0.1% year‑on‑year in October to 0.0% in November and core inflation slipping to about 0.4%, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures remain very weak and that deflation risks, while contained, have not fully disappeared.
• The SNB’s conditional inflation forecast is likely to remain close to the September projections, with inflation still seen averaging roughly 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027 under an unchanged policy rate path, though the latest CPI prints argue for a slightly lower near‑term profile and keep open the option of renewed easing if activity or prices weaken further.
• The global backdrop has deteriorated further, as continuing U.S. tariff actions and softer external demand weigh on world trade, while uncertainty in key European and U.S. markets for Swiss exports persists, leaving the SNB cautious about the growth outlook despite Switzerland’s relatively resilient domestic demand.
• Business and labour-market sentiment in export‑oriented manufacturing remains subdued, with firms reporting pressure on margins from the still‑strong franc and softer foreign orders, although the broader economy is still expected to grow at around 1–1.5% in 2025 and unemployment only drifting up gradually from low levels.
• The SNB continues to stress its willingness to act if deflation risks re‑emerge, reiterating that it can ease policy through renewed rate cuts or targeted foreign‑exchange intervention if necessary, while also highlighting its commitment to transparent communication, including the publication of detailed minutes from recent assessments and ongoing dialogue with international partners on FX policy

The next meeting is on 19 March 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

BOE Gov Bailey Speaks (10:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from GBP today?

The Pound Sterling (GBPUSD) exhibited resilience against the US Dollar, rebounding to near 1.3465 from early lows, driven by US Dollar weakness following criminal probes into Fed Chair Powell and contrasting UK fiscal worries. Persistent UK growth stagnation, rising gilt yields, and Bank of England easing expectations continue to cap upside.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on 18 December 2025, with the current Bank Rate standing at 4.00 per cent after being held in a close 5–4 vote at the 5 November meeting. Market pricing and analyst commentary point to a high risk of a 25‑basis‑point cut to 3.75 per cent, but this remains conditional on incoming inflation and labour‑market data, so the December note should be treated as pre‑decision guidance rather than an ex‑post summary.
• The BoE is expected to leave its quantitative tightening (QT) framework broadly unchanged through year‑end, maintaining the lower reduction pace in gilt holdings that was set earlier in 2025. Official communications still characterise the existing QT path as consistent with a restrictive stance, with policymakers stressing that balance‑sheet reduction will remain gradual and sensitive to market‑liquidity conditions.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.6 per cent year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in September, helped by softer energy and goods prices, though it remains almost twice the 2 per cent target. Underlying inflation pressures, particularly in services, have continued to moderate only slowly, so the MPC’s central projection still envisages inflation moving closer to, but not yet reaching, 3 per cent over the course of 2026, contingent on further normalisation in energy and wage dynamics.
• UK economic activity remains weak heading into the December meeting, with the labour market showing further signs of slackening. The unemployment rate has risen toward just above 5 per cent on the latest three‑month figures to October, while overall regular pay growth has slowed to around the mid‑4 per cent range, reinforcing the view that domestic cost pressures are gradually easing.
• External conditions continue to cloud the outlook, with fragile global growth and fluctuating commodity prices contributing to bouts of financial‑market volatility. The MPC has highlighted that renewed global energy or food price shocks could temporarily slow the pace of disinflation, but such risks are currently judged unlikely to derail the medium‑term downward trajectory for inflation if domestic demand stays subdued.
• The balance of risks around the inflation outlook remains finely poised. Downside risks are linked to persistently weak domestic demand and rising unemployment, while upside risks come from still‑elevated inflation expectations, sticky services inflation, and the possibility that structural changes in the labour market leave less slack than conventional indicators suggest.
• Overall, the MPC’s stance going into December is restrictive but increasingly open to a gradual easing cycle, with any rate cuts expected to be measured and data‑dependent. Policymakers have reiterated that the Bank Rate will need to stay in restrictive territory until they are confident inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2 per cent target, and they have signalled that the profile of cuts, once started, is likely to be shallow rather than rapid.
• The next meeting is on 5 February 2026.

  Next 24 Hours Bias
  Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news event

What can we expect from CAD today?

The Canadian Dollar exhibited resilience, rebounding slightly against a softening US Dollar driven by Fed policy worries and elevated oil prices amid geopolitical risks, following a volatile start to the year with a prolonged losing streak tied to Venezuelan oil threats and tepid economic data; traders now watch labor reports and BoC cues for sustained momentum, with USD/CAD hovering around 1.3860-1.3876.
​
Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council left the target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% at its 10 December 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations and signalling that the earlier easing cycle has likely concluded. The Bank noted that while global tariff tensions and trade uncertainty persist, the external backdrop has stabilised somewhat, reducing the need for additional insurance cuts even as world trade remains fragile.
• The Council acknowledged that uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs continues to weigh on business sentiment, but recent data show Canadian manufacturing and goods exports holding up better than anticipated. Surveys cited by the Bank suggest export order books have stopped deteriorating, with firms reporting some rebuilding of backlogs despite still‑cautious capital spending plans.
• Canada’s economy rebounded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualised pace of about 2.6% after a 1.8% contraction in Q2, largely on the back of higher crude exports and government spending. Monthly data show output rising 0.2% in September, though flash estimates point to a softer start to Q4 as some sectors give back earlier gains.
• Service sector activity has firmed, with indicators showing the services PMI back above the 50 threshold and broadening gains in business and professional services. However, consumer-facing categories remain mixed, as still‑elevated price levels and only modest real income growth keep a lid on discretionary spending even as tourism and technology‑related services expand.
• Housing markets have continued to stabilise, with national resale activity and prices edging higher through the autumn alongside the earlier decline in borrowing costs. The Bank noted that while some major urban centres are seeing renewed price pressures, tighter underwriting standards and still‑high affordability constraints are expected to cap the pace of any rebound.
• Headline CPI inflation eased to 2.2% year over year in October and is estimated to have remained near that rate in November, keeping it slightly above the 2% target but comfortably within the 1%–3% control range. Core measures have drifted lower, with CPI‑median and CPI‑trim around 3% or below, reinforcing the assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating even as gasoline and some shelter components remain volatile.
• The Governing Council reiterated that the current policy rate is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to target while supporting the economy through a period of structural adjustment, and it signalled a shift away from near‑term easing expectations. While the Bank did not rule out future adjustments, officials stressed that, barring a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further rate cuts are unlikely before 2026, and attention is now focused on the durability of the recovery and the evolution of core inflation.
• The next meeting is on 28 January 2026.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Oil prices reached a one-month high driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on goods from countries doing business with Iran, boosting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $60 per barrel and Brent below $64. Geopolitical tensions, including escalating protests in Iran and a record high in Iranian oil stored on water, added supply risk premiums, while Venezuela’s US-backed government aims to ramp up production amid oversupply concerns.

Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 January 2026 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 98.71

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 98.49

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 99.07
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.1702

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.1616

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 1.1749

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 183.59

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 182.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where the price could again stabilize.

1st resistance: 184.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8707

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.8642
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 0.8746
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3489

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 1.3392
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support, indicating a potential area where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3549
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 211.94

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 210.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 213.01
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could halt further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 0.7966

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 0.7907
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 0.8017
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential level that could cap further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 157.25

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 155.95

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a strong area where buyers might return, and the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 158.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance. This level represents the next key area where upward movement could be capped amid increased selling pressure

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bullish                                                                                                                                                                                     

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.3800

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 1.3684

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 1.3898

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, making it a possible target for bullish advances and a level where some sellers could return to cap gains

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.672

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.6611

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.6765

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before continuing its bearish move down toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5770

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 0.5690

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, this area has provided strong support historically and may attract buying interest for a potential short-term bounce

1st resistance: 0.5820

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 48,844.50

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a potential area where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 48,371.10

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 24,687.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 24,203.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 25,501.92

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that is supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 6,892.80

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 6,7823.20

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once again.

1st resistance: 6,978.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

The price has already reacted off the pivot and may continue its bearish move toward the 1st support.

Pivot: 92,296.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, where selling pressures could intensify and potentially cap any upward retracement.

1st support: 89,492.85

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 94,836.00

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,051.53

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 2,909.66

Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating a potential level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 3,147.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price has already bounced off the pivot and may continue its bullish move toward the 1st resistance

Pivot: 58.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 56.92
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 60.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high  resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

The price could see a short-term pullback toward the pivot before rising again toward the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 4,549.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge to push the price higher.

1st support: 4,500.59
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a key level where the price could stabilize once more.

1st resistance: 4,630.21
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

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The post Tuesday 13th January 2026: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks Push Higher Despite Fed Investigation – Nasdaq up 0.25%
US equity markets extended their advance overnight, with stocks managing to edge higher despite ongoing market concerns surrounding the announced criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones rose 0.17% to close at 49,590, while the S&P 500 added 0.16% to finish at 6,977. The Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.26% to end the session at 23,733. In rates markets, Treasury yields pushed slightly higher as investors continued to weigh inflation risks and the implications of a potentially less independent Federal Reserve. The US 2-year yield edged up 0.2 basis points to 3.535%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 1.0 basis point to 4.175%. Despite the move higher in yields, the US dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index slipping 0.26% to 98.88 against the major currencies. Commodities were broadly firmer. Oil prices climbed to fresh seven-week highs as concerns around Iranian exports continued to support the market. Brent advanced 1.41% to $64.23 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.64% to $59.50. Gold was once again the standout performer, surging 1.95% to a fresh record high close of $4,597.51 as investors continued to seek havens amid market uncertainty.

Gold Continues to Fly Higher – New Record Above $4,600
Gold surged over 2% in trading yesterday to record yet another all-time high, as it continued to trade in 2026 in a very similar manner to 2025. The world’s favourite (although silver is catching up quickly!) precious metal has already gained over 7% in the first couple of weeks of the new year, and many commentators are calling for further gains into the first couple of quarters of 2026. There is no doubt that some of the more traditional factors have contributed to the moves that we have seen in recent sessions – i.e. geopolitical concerns – and traders will now be looking to see if gold continues to see moves higher if those concerns abate, or if we do see more upward trajectory even in strong ‘risk-on’ environments later in the year. For now, though, traders are favouring going with the trend, which is certainly pointing upwards. Short-term resistance will now sit at the overnight high of $4,629.94, with initial support at yesterday’s low of $4,512.37 and longer-term support at the daily chart trendline at $4,352.35.

US Inflation Data in Focus for Markets Today
The macro calendar remains relatively quiet through the initial part of the trading day today; however, things will start to pick up as we progress through the sessions and hit the major economic event of the week early in the New York day. There is nothing of note again on the agenda in the Asian session; however, a scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey midway through the London day could see an increase in volatility for UK markets. The New York session is expected to be the busiest of the day again, with key US inflation data due out. The first CPI prints of 2026 are due out shortly after the open, with the market expecting both the headline month-on-month number and the core month-on-month number to show a 0.3% increase, and the year-on-year data to show a 2.7% increase again, still well above where the Fed would like to see it. US New Home Sales data is also due out later in the session; however, expect the inflation numbers and any further geopolitical updates to dominate market sentiment.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

The post General Market Analysis – 13/01/26 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.