Articles

Trump tweeting:

Republican’s on Congress are conerned about their re-election prospects, Trump tryin to calm nerves. How effecitve that might be iwill be debated by the political folks out there.

Meanwhile keep your eye on the USD:

• USD set to get another thrashing after Trump’s weekend debasement comments

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Intercepted communications between senior Iranian officials, obtained by the U.S. and reported by the Washington Post, suggest that last weekend’s U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites were less damaging than expected.

The conversations reveal surprise within the Iranian government over the limited scope of the attacks ordered by President Donald Trump. The relatively restrained impact has sparked concern within the U.S. administration that Iran’s nuclear program may soon resume.

The White House has not disputed the authenticity of the intercepted discussions.

—

The news is getting coverage in media outlets. I wonder if such news will prompt further US attacks?

• Israel vows to block any rebuild effort
• Trump’s Mid East envoy Witkoff says its a red line if Iran tries nuclear enrichment again

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia’s mining and energy export earnings are forecast to continue falling over the next two years, weighed down by weaker bulk commodity prices, rising global supply, and mounting trade policy uncertainties, according to the federal government’s June-quarter resources and energy report (the report is from Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources).

• Export revenues are projected to fall from A$415 billion in 2023–24 to A$385 billion this year, and then to A$352 billion by 2026–27.
• Iron ore and LNG — the country’s largest exports — are set to face price declines due to increased global supply.
• Iron ore earnings are forecast to drop from A$116 billion this year to A$97 billion by 2026–27.

The report highlights growing caution among global businesses, as uncertainty around U.S. trade policy prompts investment delays and suppresses commodity demand.

Not all sectors are under pressure.

• Gold is expected to become Australia’s third-largest export next year, reaching A$56 billion, with both prices and volumes climbing.
• Lithium is also forecast to rebound gradually, with earnings projected to rise from A$4.6 billion this year to A$6.6 billion in 2026–27.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump spoke in a pre-taped interview with Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”, notable about about his big ugly bill. He’s unsure it’ll pass by his July 4 target date:

“I don’t know. I mean, I can’t tell you that”

“I’d like to say, yes. But the problem is if we’re two days late or five days late, everybody says, ‘Oh, you had a tremendous failure.’”

“It’s very important. If we don’t have it, there’s a 68% tax increase. If we have don’t it, you know, the debt ceiling extension is very important.”

As for the USD, he set it on course for further debasement (its already down 10% this year so far, its worst half year performance in 4 decades), he spoke on the $9 trillion US debt that is set to mature this year:

• “ … I don’t want to have to pay for 10 years debt at a higher rate.”
• “ … we’re to get somebody into the Fed who’s going to be able to lower the rate.”

This is not a trend you want to be fighting, it has support right at the top of the US admin.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Welcome Sunday afternoon/evening/Monday morning party people!

Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The official PMIs, from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are published today, for June 2025. later in the week we’ll get the unofficial, Caixin, PMIs, which are also informative. I’ve added some info below on the similarities and differences between the two series. I’ve posted this before, but ICYLMI.

As for today’s release, the official manufacturing PMI is expected to improve a touch but remain in contraction. Steady in expansion is the expectation for the non-manufacturing PMI. On Friday we had data from China. The sharp fall in profits at China’s industrial firms in May comes amidst ongoing weakness in an economy grappling with elevated US tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures.

• This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

*****

The two PMIs are quite different. If you are unfamiliar with this, the following will set you up for next year!

The PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Caixin/S&P Global differ primarily in survey scope, methodology, and focus. Here’s a breakdown of the key differences:

1. Provider and Affiliation

• NBS PMI:

  • Compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, a government agency.
  • Seen as the official PMI, closely aligned with government policies and priorities.

• Caixin/S&P Global PMI:

  • Compiled by Caixin Media in collaboration with S&P Global.
  • A private-sector index, often considered more market-driven.

2. Survey Scope

• NBS PMI:

  • Focuses on large and state-owned enterprises.
  • Covers a broader range of industries, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors (e.g., construction and services).
  • Reflects conditions in sectors heavily influenced by government policies and infrastructure spending.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Focuses on small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly in the private sector.
  • Captures the performance of companies that are more exposed to market-driven forces and less influenced by state interventions.

3. Sample Size and Composition

• NBS PMI:

  • Larger sample size, with about 3,000 enterprises surveyed for the manufacturing PMI.
  • Emphasizes state-owned enterprises and larger companies, which tend to dominate traditional industries.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Smaller sample size, surveying around 500 enterprises, with a stronger focus on export-oriented and technology-driven firms.
  • Provides insights into the private sector and its responsiveness to global economic conditions.

4. Release Dates

• NBS PMI:

  • Released monthly, typically on the last day of the month.
  • Provides separate PMIs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Released a few days later, usually on the first business day of the following month.
  • Includes only the manufacturing PMI and services PMI, with no equivalent for non-manufacturing activities like construction.

5. Interpretation and Use

• NBS PMI:

  • Reflects the overall economic landscape, especially trends in industries influenced by government policy.
  • Analysts use it to gauge the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the broader economy.

• Caixin PMI:

  • Viewed as a better indicator of the health of the private sector and market-driven segments of the economy.
  • Considered more sensitive to external shocks (e.g., global trade conditions).

6. Key Insights and Differences in Results

• The NBS PMI often reflects policy-driven stability, showing less volatility because it covers sectors cushioned by government support.
• The Caixin PMI can be more volatile, as SMEs are more sensitive to real-time changes in market demand, supply chain disruptions, and global economic shifts.

Why Both Matter:

• NBS PMI offers a macroeconomic view of China’s state-influenced economy.
• Caixin PMI provides a microeconomic perspective of the more market-driven and globally competitive sectors.

By analyzing both, investors and policymakers can obtain a more comprehensive picture of China’s economic health and its underlying dynamics.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates, a little change from late Friday, USD a little softer (the story of the hapless US dollar for 2025 so far!).

• EUR/USD 1.1736
• USD/JPY 144.40
• GBP/USD 1.3717
• USD/CHF 0.7986
• USD/CAD 1.3682
• AUD/USD 0.6539
• NZD/USD 0.6050 (kiwi letting the team down!)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Market sentiment has flown higher in the last few days as a ceasefire in the Middle East has combined with progress on trade deals between the US and its trade partners to dramatically pull back investor concerns.
There is no doubt that there are likely to be a few twists and turns in the days ahead on the geopolitical front; however, there will also be a strong focus on fundamentals with some key US data due out in the days ahead, including the crucial Non-Farms numbers.
We are also expecting some big updates from the great and good of central banking as they meet for the ECB’s Annual Central Bank Forum in Sintra, with some of the world’s heaviest hitters set to participate in a policy panel on Tuesday.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Asian markets are expected to start on the front foot on Monday after Wall Street closed out the week strongly on Friday. The initial focus for the day will be on Chinese markets with the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers both due out early in the day. German Preliminary CPI numbers are due out in the European session, whilst we hear from the first of many central bank updates in the New York day with the Fed’s Bostic and Goolsbee set to speak before we hear opening remarks from the ECB’s Christine Lagarde in Sintra later in the day.

There is little of note on the calendar on Tuesday in the Asian session, but things should liven up once Europe comes in. Flash CPI data is due out for the EU early in the day, but the major focus will be on Sintra where we hear from the heads of the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed when they participate in a policy panel. We have the first major US data out soon after the New York open with the ISM Manufacturing PMI data out alongside the JOLTS Job Openings numbers.

Australian markets will be the early focus for traders in Asia on Wednesday with the Retail Sales numbers due out. There is little on the cards in terms of data in the European session, although we will hear closing remarks from Sintra. The New York session sees more jobs numbers with the ADP Non-Farm numbers due out early in the day.

Thursday has the potential to be the busiest day of the week for traders, and although there is nothing significant due out in the Asian session, we have the key Swiss CPI data out in Europe followed by a data-packed session in New York. US markets are on holiday on Friday, so there is a raft of key tier 1 data due out on Thursday with the key Non-Farms numbers out alongside the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Weekly Unemployment Claims data. This is followed by the ISM Services PMI numbers later in the day.

Friday could very well be the calm after the storm of data, with nothing in the way of tier 1 data due out across all three sessions and no central bankers scheduled to speak. However, traders will remain vigilant for any geopolitical updates throughout the day, especially in the US session where liquidity will come at a premium and we are likely to hear something from President Trump.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 29 July 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Trump cancels trade talks with Canada
• Carney says he has not spoken with Trump today
• US May PCE core +2.7% y/y vs +2.6% expected
• Canada GDP for April -0.1% vs +0.0% expected
• US June final UMich consumer sentiment 60.7 vs 60.5 expected
• Trump: I’ve ended sanctions relief for Iran because the Ayatollah didn’t say thank-you
• Trump: In the process of making trade deals
• US oil drilling rigs fall for the ninth straight week
• Bessent: I’m not sure why the US dollar moves would bother me
• Fed’s Kashkari: I continue to expect two rate cuts in 2025
• US Bessent: I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day
• US Bessent: Confident that magnets will flow in China-US deal

Markets:

• US 10-year yields up 2 bps to 4.27%
• WTI crude oil down 17-cens to $65.07
• Gold down $54 to $3273
• S&P 500 closes up 0.5% to record
• EUR leads, CAD lags

The day started with the PCE data and it painted a tough picture for policymakers as core inflation ran hot but spending cooled in something of a stagflationary impulse. That led to some early US dollar selling and the euro hit a fresh three-year high at 1.1750. That move didn’t last long as selling pulled it back to 1.1715 at the European close. I suspect there might have been some flow-driven USD buying ahead of quarter end as it was a broader move.

The next big market move came late in the day when Trump said he was cutting off trade negotiations with Canada in a sign that Tariff Man is back. That led to a 70-pip rise in USD/CAD and we saw the US dollar rise broadly as risk assets came under pressure. The S&P 500 gave up a 40 point gain in the aftermath.

But the TACO trade kicked in late with the market concluding it’s all a negotiating tactic and the S&P 500 closing up 32 points. USD/CAD gave back nearly all the gain as well and the dollar is doing the same on some other fronts.

Trump’s issue with Canada is the long-planned digital services tax that will go into effect on Monday. That short timeline could lead to weekend risks and a potential short turnaround on a deal.

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bessent indicates that the US dollar drop this year is normal variance.

• The US still has a strong dollar policy
• Currencies move up and down
• More fiscal spending in Europe tells you that the euro should appreciate
• I don’t think anyone is necessarily talking about a shadow Fed
• One spot on the Fed will open up early in the year when Kugler leaves
• A group of trade deals (10-12) will be wrapped up by then
• Approx 20 other nations will either see reciprocal rates kick in, or will see 10% baseline if they’re negotiating in good faith
• It’s all up to Trump
• My inclination is that USTR will start a 301 investigation into Canada’s digital services tax

On Canada digital services tax:

• “We knew it was coming, we hoped they wouldn’t do it”
• “We were hoping as a sign of goodwill that the new Carney administration would at least put a brake on that during the trade talks.”

Ah yes, because the US has halted its tariffs during trade talks.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a lively day in US equity markets as strong buyers waded in early. It looked like the market would cruise to a record high close until Trump tweeted that he was ending trade talks with Canada. That led to a wave of tariff worries that erased more than 40 points in the S&P 500 and put it into negative territory.

But the dip buyers didn’t wait long to buy on the TACO trade and stocks finished with solid gains.

Closing changes:

• SPX +0.5%
• Nasdaq +0.5%
• Russell 2000 0.0%
• DJIA +1.0%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.5%

One of the memes worth noting is Palantir, which fell 9.4% after a late-day swoon.

On the week:

• SPX +3.4%
• Nasdaq +4.2%
• Russell 2000 +2.9%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%

These are record weekly closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• These are complex talks
• Will proceed in the best interests of the country

Tough to get a read on what he’s saying here but he’s not trying to inflame talks further. USD/CAD has recouped a big part of the move.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.