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• Prior month +2.0%
• Pending home sales 6.1 vs 1.0% estimate
• Year-over-year, pending transactions -0.6%.
• Index 76.5 vs 72.1 last month
• Mortgage rates fell by around 20 to 30 basis points in March from the first two months of this year. The average mortgage rate was 6.65% in March, down from a 6.96% average in January and down from a 6.84% average in February.

• Northeast: PHSI fell 0.5% to 62.5 (down 3.0% year-over-year)

• Midwest: PHSI rose 4.9% to 77.7 (up 1.4% year-over-year)

• South: PHSI surged 9.8% to 94.1 (down 0.4% year-over-year)

• West: PHSI increased 4.8% to 58.6 (down 2.0% year-over-year)

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun,

“Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates. While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers, fueled by ongoing job growth.”

He added:

“In March, signed contracts surged 34.1% from February based on non-seasonally adjusted raw data, reflecting a pattern consistent with previous years. In addition, inventory levels rose by 8.1% in March from the prior month, indicating a more dynamic housing-market environment.”

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Core PCE (excluding food & energy):

• Prior was +2.8
• Core m/m +% vs +0.1% exp
• Unrounded core PCE +% vs +0.38% m/m prior
• Supercore (services ex-shelter) vs +3.34% y/y prior
• Services inflation vs +0.375% m/m prior

Headline PCE

• Headline PCE +% y/y vs +2.2% expected
• Deflator +% m/m vs +0.0% expected
• Unrounded headline +% vs +0.34% m/m prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold is back to flat today after falling earlier.

The market is now pricing in 131 bps in Fed easing in the coming year, up 6 bps from yesterday following a couple of poor economic data readings today. The view is that the Fed will cut despite rising inflation as the economy slows.

Technically, this is now the fourth dip down to the $3260 level and it’s held each time.

We also have Peter Navarro on TV right now sprouting all kinds of non-sense and that isn’t exactly screaming to buy the US dollar.

I’m not sure it’s time to get bullish gold right away but if it can hold this low and get back above $3375, that’s a very strong signal.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is washing his hands of the stock market.

This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until
January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are
starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom,
but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” This will take a while,
has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers,
but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!.

I don’t think that ‘be patient’ is the message the market wants to hear with no trade deals announced, no talks with China and tariffs set to go back up on July 9.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US personal income and consumption report is due at 10 am and the GDP report offers some insights into what is coming.

The first hint is on inflation and those numbers were hot in the GDP report, which means upside risks. Guy Lebas from Janney sees that rolling in at +0.4% in light of GDP, which is well-above the +0.1% expected and is likely to give the Fed a headache. It should also keep the y/y reading closer to 3% than the 2.6% expected.

On the consumption side there is some good news. Adjusted consumption is forecast at +0.5% but the consumer spending number in the GDP report was at +1.8% compared to +1.2% expected.

I’d imagine that some of this is already priced into the market but a hot inflation number could raise some very tough questions about the 125 bps of easing priced in for the next 12 months.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month 0.4%
• Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus expectations of 0.0%
• Goods producing industries -0.6% versus +1.1% last month last month
• Services producing industries -0.1% versus +0.1% last month
• 12 of 20 industries declined in the month of February
• Advanced estimate for the month of March 0.1%

details of the report:

• Following two consecutive monthly increases, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector became the largest detractor from growth, down 2.5% in February, as most subsectors contracted
• Construction (-0.5%) contracted for the first time in four months as most types of construction activities were down in February.. Residential construction -0.9% contributed most to the decline in February with its largest increase since April 2024.
• The real estate and rental and leasing sector contracted 0.4% in February, posting its largest decline since April 2022.
• The manufacturing sector rose 0.6% in February, up for the second month in a row, in large part driven by durable-goods manufacturing industries in February.
• Transportation and warehousing contracted 1.1% in February, following two consecutive monthly gains. Major snowstorms that hit Central and Eastern Canada and storms passing through British Columbia adversely impacted the sector in February.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Will continue to sell $42 billion in 10s

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Final Q4 GDP was 2.4% annualized
• Final Q3 reading was +2.8% annualized
• Consumer spending: +1.8% vs +4.0% prior
• GDP final sales (excluding inventories): -2.5% vs 3.3% prior
• GDP price index (GDP deflator): 3.7% vs 3.0% expected
• Core PCE (excluding food & energy): 3.5% vs 3.3% expected
• PCE price index: 3.6% vs 2.4% prior
• PCE services excluding energy and housing +3.4% vs +2.3% prior
• Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment): % vs % prior

This report is negative but it’s even worse than it looks with a poor showing domestically and from the consumer. In addition, the inflation numbers were hotter.

The ‘consensus’ here was +0.3% but that didn’t fully take into account the latest poor trade data so the market was likely closer to the actual reading, and that’s what Bloomberg’s consensus had adjusted to.

Contributors and subtractors:

• Consumption: +1.21% vs +2.70% prior
• Government: -0.25% vs +0.52% advance
• Net International trade: -4.83% vs +0.26% advance
• Inventories: +2.25% vs -0.84% advance

This highlights what happened in the quarter as companies surged imports and stuffed them into inventories. The reversal of that will be a net positive in the quarter ahead but it will be met with a drawdown in inventories and falling consumption.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +155K (revised to +147K)
• Goods producing +26K
• Service providing +34K

• Pay gains for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.6% prior
• Pay growth for job changers 6.9% vs 6.5% prior

This is the worst reading since July and adds a downside risk to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.4%
• Core CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs 2.6% prior

A touch above expectations but nothing that will change the ECB’s plan of cutting rates in June. The Core reading saw a notable jump though. We will see how things evolve in the next months but the trade negotiations remain the market’s focus.

On a forward looking basis, if we get a resolution on the trade war front, we could see a strong and sudden pickup in demand which would push economic activity and prices up. That’s something to watch out for as it could trigger a more hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior +0.4%
• Core CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs 2.6% prior

A touch above expectations but nothing that will change the ECB’s plan of cutting rates in June. The Core reading saw a notable jump though. We will see how things evolve in the next months but the trade negotiations remain the market’s focus.

On a forward looking basis, if we get a resolution on the trade war front, we could see a strong and sudden pickup in demand which would push economic activity and prices up. That’s something to watch out for as it could trigger a more hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 April -4.2% vs -12.7% prior
• Reminder: Trump will speak at an “Investing in America” event at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT
• Italy April preliminary CPI (HICP) +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y expected
• Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• China’s Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations
• Switzerland UBS April investor sentiment -51.6 vs -10.7 prior
• Italy Q1 preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Germany Q1 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Bavaria April CPI +2.1% vs +2.3% y/y prior
• Germany April unemployment change 4k vs 15k expected
• Bessent told French Fin Minister the idea of zero reciprocal tariffs wasn’t unrealistic
• Switzerland April KOF leading indicator index 97.1 vs 101.5 expected
• France April preliminary CPI (HICP) +0.8% vs +0.7% y/y expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Heads up: Chinese markets closure until next week
• Germany March import price index -1.0% vs -0.8% m/m expected
• Germany March retail sales -0.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• UK April Nationwide house prices -0.6% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• France Q1 preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected
• FX option expiries for 30 April 10am New York cut

We had lots of data releases this morning but as it’s been the case since April 2, the market mostly ignored the data given the focus on trade negotiations.

The Eurozone preliminary Q1 GDP beat expectations but economists already foresaw an improvement due to tariff-driven frontloading
after companies and consumers in the US stockpiled European goods before
the tariffs started.

Inflation data out of France, Italy and Germany continues to be in check despite ticking a bit higher. The data is not going to change the ECB plan of cutting rates again in June though barring a resolution on the tariffs front.

We got one notable headline early in the morning where French Finance Minister Lombard said that he discussed the idea of reciprocal
zero tariffs with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him that it was not
unrealistic.

The Swiss sentiment surveys fell by much more than expected, which is not a surprise given the tariffs uncertainty. All around the world we are seeing the same trend in soft data.

In the American session, we will get the Advance US Q1 GDP report where the range of expectations is very wide. The good news is that the markets won’t care given that the GDP report is always old news. The markets look forward and that’s why the focus is on trade negotiations.

We will also get the Canadian GDP, the US ADP, the US Employment Cost Index and the US PCE Price Index. Yep, you guessed it, it’s old news. The main event is Trump’s speech at the “Investing in America” event due at 16:00 ET/20:00 GMT. Nonetheless, watch out for trade related headlines as we continue to wait for the details of the first deal.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.