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It is Spring Bank Holiday in the UK and Memorial Day holiday in the US. Peace to those that died in the fight for freedom and to their families.

Today, the USD moved lower but has since retraced the declines to start the NA session.. The US banks, stock and bond markets are closed but Canada is open. The forex market never sleeps (it may rest though). The price action is likely to be somewhat limited in the forex.

A snapshot of the USD to start the session now shows a mixed picture. The greenback is lower vs:

• EUR -0.11%
• GBP -0.17%
• CAD -0.16%
• AUD -0.20%
• NZD -0.37%

and is higher vs:

• JPY +0.28%
• CNF +0.17%

Pres. Trump over the weekend eased fiscal policy (at least temporarily) vs Friday by extending a reprieve to the EU for tariffs to 50% tariffs to July 9, 2025. On Friday, he said he “recommended” a greater tightening of fiscal policy by adding a 50% tariffs starting June 1. Meanwhile, the Fed remains on hold as tariff policy and budget policy is being enacted around them and they wait for the dust to settle on inflation and growth.

Fed’s Neel Kashkari (a 2026 FOMC voter) on Sunday emphasized that uncertainty is a major concern for both the Federal Reserve and U.S. businesses. When asked whether the Fed could adjust rates by September, he said “anything is possible,” indicating a cautious stance. He noted that the central bank is currently in “wait and see” mode and described the economic impact of new tariffs as stagflationary—combining stagnant growth with inflation

Regarding the EU, the Trump reaction on Friday was due to limited progress on trade negotiations. IN addition,

• • The EU has prepared a €21 billion counter-tariff package targeting American goods

  • Negotiations are ongoing to prevent a full-scale trade conflict

• Prospects: Italy’s Economy Minister expressed optimism that a U.S.–EU trade accord will mirror the recent U.S.–UK deal.

Trump today said that countries “all over the world” wanted to make trade deals with the US. There were no trade deals made last week despite comments from the week before that there would be more deals coming.

Recall on May 14, the US and China agreed to ease the “embargo” where tariffs were imposed on trade up to 145%..

• Terms:

  • Both nations agreed to reduce tariffs imposed during the trade war by 115% for a 90-day period (so that would be August 12)

  • China suspended a 34% retaliatory tariff and other non-tariff measures

  • A 10% tariff remains in place on certain goods

• Purpose: Aimed at de-escalating trade tensions and fostering a more stable economic relationship

President Trump visited Saudi Arabia from May 13 to May 14, 2025, as part of his four-day Middle East tour that also included Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. While there:

• Saudi Arabia pledged to invest $600 billion in the United States, focusing on sectors like energy, defense, technology, and infrastructure. This commitment was formalized during the U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum in Riyadh.
• The U.S. agreed to sell Saudi Arabia an arms package worth nearly $142 billion, encompassing tanks, combat ships, missile defense systems, and cybersecurity technology. This deal is considered the largest defense cooperation agreement between the two nations.
• President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed an agreement to enhance cooperation in key sectors, including energy, mining, and defense, signifying a deepening of economic and strategic ties

In addition, Saudi Arabia launched “Humain,” a state-backed AI company, partnering with U.S. tech firms:

• Nvidia: Agreed to supply at least 18,000 GPUs to Humain.

• AMD: Committed to a $10 billion investment in joint AI infrastructure projects.

• Amazon Web Services: Plans to establish a $5 billion AI Zone in Saudi Arabia.

President Trump formally accepted a luxury Boeing 747-8 aircraft from the Qatari government during his May 2025 visit to the Middle East. Valued at approximately $400 million, the jet is intended to serve as a temporary replacement for Air Force One. The Pentagon confirmed that the aircraft was accepted in accordance with federal regulations and will undergo modifications to meet presidential transport standards.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 27/5/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Headlines:

• European indices jump at the open as Trump delays EU tariffs
• Macron says there was a good exchange between Trump and von der Leyen
• EU says ‘zero-for-zero’ proposal is still on table in trade talks with the US
• EU spokesperson says call with Trump was initiated by von der Leyen
• German economy minister says to calm down and keep talking on tariffs for now
• US reportedly demanded South Korea to resolve trade imbalance in talks last week
• Fed’s Kashkari: Trade policy creates uncertainty for any decision before September
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 23 May CHF 443.4 bn vs CHF 443.2 bn prior
• UK and US holiday slows down the agenda to start the new week

Markets:

• NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 1.2%
• Gold down 0.7% to $3,333.75
• WTI crude down 0.2% to $61.38
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $109,792

It’s a poor start to the week for the dollar once again but at least it is seen trimming earlier losses from Asia. That came after risk appetite perked up as Trump agreed to delay the 50% tariffs on the EU to 9 July, following a phone call with von der Leyen.

That’s the main story after the weekend, with some European officials chiming in about the exchange. However, there was little to no details offered on what the two leaders spoke about.

EUR/USD moved up to around 1.1420 in Asia but is now down to 1.1380, still up 0.1% on the day. Meanwhile, AUD/USD also traded to 0.6530 levels earlier on as it stays on the hunt of a breakout above the 0.6500 mark. But the pair has eased back to around 0.6505 currently, up 0.2% on the day.

Besides the dollar, the yen is also lagging behind with USD/JPY itself seen up 0.3% to near 143.00. AUD/JPY is a notable mover as it pushed up to 93.19 earlier but is now holding near 93.00 on the day – up 0.5%.

As for equities, European indices are seen posting a solid rebound after the Friday losses. That comes as US futures are also marked up by over 1%, though do be reminded that Wall Street is closed today.

As such, we’ll be left to digest more trade headlines before gearing towards month-end trading in the days ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Wants to get to lowest tariffs possible

For now, markets are buying into the idea of a reprieve until the next deadline. But zooming out, it is just 44 days left to accomplish something. Thus far, we haven’t gotten any meaningful progress throughout April and May. So, can they really find a breakthrough in just a few more weeks?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This was the exact same line put out in the weeks prior, all before we got Trump’s 50% tariffs threat on Friday last week. The other parts of the proposal that was reportedly rejected by Trump were to jointly remove tariffs on industrial goods, to boost access for some US agricultural products and to co-develop AI data centers.

It seems like there will be much to do to bridge the gap. Tick tock, tick tock. 44 days to go.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

However, when asked about the details the spokesperson declined to provide any details on what was discussed. Besides that, EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is to have a call with US trade representative Howard Lutnick later today. So, we’ll have to wait and see if that will offer any headlines after.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

It was definitely a hectic weekend surely in Europe after Trump threatened 50% tariffs for 1 June on Friday. The good news now is that the decision is delayed to 9 July but that’s still not a lot of breathing room. That especially when you consider that the US and EU have failed to really get into anything meaningful since April. Tick tock, tick tock.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The move matches up with the change in risk flows after Trump agreed to delay the 50% tariffs on the EU to 9 July. His initial decision on Friday to press for the tariffs to go into effect on 1 June helped gold to move up at the end of last week. The drop today eats just a little into that, as buyers continue to keep control in the near-term chart:

The policy flip flopping is making it hard for gold to build a consistent bias in the past few weeks. That especially with the trade war against China taking a backseat for the moment. That will of course come into focus again later on surely. But for now, traders and broader markets are turning their attention to the trade disputes elsewhere.

The slight easing in gold today might not look like much but perhaps the bigger picture chart might offer something more interesting.

As much as I am a gold bug myself, the latest chart pattern above is something to be wary about. There is a lower highs, lower lows pattern potentially forming and a lot will ride on how price action plays out this week.

If buyers fail to hold the near-term momentum from the hourly chart closer to the $3,300 level, that could spell some danger for a continuation lower in gold as it looks to find a base.

With markets still grasping at the new reality of tariffs and not yet fully taking in the implications of it all, gold might face some headwinds as the spotlight stays on trade deals for the time being.

But once the dust settles, we’ll have to understand what that all means as Trump has just hoodwinked the world into accepting higher tariffs all around. And if the trade conflict with China escalates again especially, that will add to another tailwind for gold in the time to come.

For now though, gold bugs might have to bide their time and deal with a consolidative mood at best perhaps.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Domestic sight deposits CHF 435.7 bn vs CHF 434.8 bn prior

There’s little change in the overall sight deposits in the past week. However, this will be an interesting spot to watch in the weeks/months ahead as the franc continues to keep stronger. And that’s a conundrum for the SNB as they face a battle against deflation now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

A slow start to the week is expected, with a bank holiday in the U.K. for the observance of Spring Bank Holiday, and in the U.S. for Memorial Day.

On Tuesday, Japan will release the BoJ Core CPI y/y, while in the U.S., we will get the durable goods orders m/m and CB consumer confidence.

Wednesday will bring inflation data for Australia, with the main focus on the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. In the U.S., the FOMC meeting minutes will be released.

Thursday, many countries will observe Ascension Day, leading to lighter market activity. In the U.S., we’ll get the release of preliminary GDP q/q and unemployment claims.

On Friday, Japan will release the Tokyo Core CPI y/y, Canada will report GDP m/m, and the U.S. will release the core PCE price index m/m.

The consensus for U.S. durable goods orders m/m is -7.9% vs. the prior 7.5%, and for core durable goods orders m/m, -0.1% vs. the prior -0.4%.

Wells Fargo analysts note that the previous jump in durable goods orders was primarily driven by a $23 billion (157%) surge in nondefense aircraft orders. There was also a rise in auto orders, likely in anticipation of tariffs. Overall, the trend remains weak. Excluding transportation, orders declined by 0.4%, while core capital goods orders slipped by 0.2%.

This month, expectations point to weakness in headline orders, which can be attributed to high borrowing costs and uncertainty related to trade policy.

In the U.S., the consensus for the CB consumer confidence index is 87.1, up from the prior 86.0.

Recently, consumer confidence has declined to levels approaching those seen during the pandemic, reflecting growing concerns about the economic outlook. However, a rebound is expected in this week’s data, likely driven by temporary relief following the 90-day pause on elevated tariffs targeting China.

In Australia, the consensus for the CPI y/y is 2.3% vs. the prior 2.4%. Westpac expects Australia’s April monthly CPI indicator to rise by 0.3%, which would bring the annual inflation rate down to 1.9%. This follows a 0.6% increase in March that kept the yearly rate steady at 2.4%.

April marks the first month of the quarter and primarily captures quarterly price changes in goods such as clothing, furniture, and home maintenance. More comprehensive data on prices for services will be available in the coming months.

At this week’s meeting, the RBNZ is expected to deliver a 25 bps rate cut and to lower its forecast for the OCR by around 20 bps to 2.9% by the end of the year, reflecting a more gradual easing path.

Looking ahead, the RBNZ is expected to adopt a data-dependent approach, with the possibility of pausing rate cuts in July depending on economic conditions, according to Westpac.

The Monetary Policy Committee is likely engaged in increased debate, particularly around balancing near-term inflation pressures with a softer medium-term outlook. Global economic developments will remain a key factor, with both downside and upside risks under consideration.

The consensus for the Tokyo core CPI y/y is 3.5% vs. the prior 3.4%. Japan is expected to experience persistent inflationary pressure alongside a slowdown in manufacturing activity, which can be attributed to U.S. tariffs.

Analysts at ING emphasize that consumer price inflation in Tokyo is likely to remain elevated, with a slight increase in core inflation suggesting broad-based price pressures. At the same time, industrial production is forecast to decline, influenced by the impact of 25% tariffs on automobiles. This will complicate the Bank of Japan’s future policy considerations.

In the U.S., the consensus for the core PCE price index m/m is 0.1% vs. the prior 0.0%; for personal income m/m, it is 0.3% vs. the prior 0.5%; and for personal spending m/m, 0.2% vs. the prior 0.7%.

Wells Fargo analysts note that March’s notable increase in consumer spending of 0.7% was primarily fueled by a substantial uptick in purchases of motor vehicles and parts. This surge, totaling $57 billion, reflected consumers’ efforts to buy before impending tariffs took effect, and it significantly outpaced growth in other spending categories.

Beyond autos, spending on services also gained momentum. Increases were seen in both necessary expenses like healthcare and more optional categories such as travel and dining, indicating that, despite concerns around inflation and falling consumer confidence, demand for leisure and service-related spending remains relatively resilient.

This elevated level of consumption has been underpinned by strong income performance. Real disposable income climbed 0.5% in March—the largest monthly gain in over a year—supported by consistent wage growth and stable inflation. Both core and headline PCE inflation remained unchanged month-over-month, keeping annual rates steady at 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively.

In Canada, the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.2%, compared to the prior -0.2%. Canada’s GDP is expected to have grown at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the first quarter, driven primarily by a strong performance in January.

February likely weighed on the quarter’s momentum, as the conclusion of the federal GST tax holiday, compounded by harsh winter conditions and persistent trade-related uncertainty, led to a temporary pullback in activity. However, March appears to have brought a partial recovery, driven by improved output in the transportation sector and a rebound in oil production.

Household consumption is expected to have increased in Q1, although slower home resale activity likely curbed residential investment. Business investment may have edged higher, but the outlook remains clouded by ongoing trade policy disruptions that could dampen future capital spending.

According to RBC analysts, the next round of data, including updates on manufacturing and wholesale trade as well as early estimates for Q2 GDP, will be critical in determining whether recent signs of weakness are temporary or part of a broader slowdown. Housing activity remains soft, and the manufacturing industry has seen significant job cuts, underscoring growing pressure in key sectors.

Still, retail spending has held up well despite declining consumer sentiment, helped by strong cardholder activity and a relatively stable perception of current business conditions. Canada continues to benefit from the lowest U.S. tariff exposure among major trading partners, following exemptions granted in April. Meanwhile, job postings data from early May suggest that some stability is returning to the labor market.

While overall economic momentum is expected to cool this year, a contraction remains unlikely as domestic demand helps cushion the impact of external trade headwinds.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

The two sides had a meeting last week as noted here at the time. There’s no other detail in the headline, so it’s hard to see how else the discussion went. But in any case, we’ll likely only see higher-level meetings between the two later next month after the South Korean presidential election (which will be on 3 June).

As for a deal, the hope for South Korea is to get one by early July.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +1.5%
• Germany DAX +1.8%
• France CAC 40 +1.4%
• Spain IBEX +1.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +1.5%

The hope now is that Trump is really just threatening with the 50% tariffs in order to get a deal at the end of it all. It’s sort of his go to negotiating tactic it would seem when it comes to tariffs. But 9 July is not that far away, so we’ll see how they can move the needle in the coming weeks when we’ve already seen almost no progress since April.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.