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• Personal income 0.4% versus 0.3%
• personal consumption 0.3% versus 0.3% as expected
• PCE for September 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. YoY 2.8% versus 2.8% expected
• Core PCE for September 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. YoY 2.8% versus 2.9% expected
• PCE Ex food energy, and housing 0.2% MoM versus 0.2% last month
• PCE Ex energy and housing 0.2% versus 0.3% last month

For the month there was $65.1 billion increase in current dollar PCE reflecting an increase of $63.0 billion on services and $2.1 billion on goods.

Looking at the PCE, the core PCE is at the same level that it was a year ago at 2.8%. The high of the core reached 3.0%. The headline moved up from 2.3% to the current 2.8%. The 2.8% is the highest going back a year.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +66.6K
• Unemployment rate 6.5% vs 7.0% expected
• Participation rate 65.1% vs 65.3% prior
• Full time -9.4% vs -18.5K prior
• Part time +63.0K vs 85.1K prior
• Average hourly wages for permanent employees 4.00% vs 4.00% prior

There were a pair of weak reports in July/August followed by a pair of strong ones in Sept/Oct, leaving everyone guessing what the real trajectory of hiring in Canada is. This report provides an emphatic answer. It’s another big jobs gain and a tumble in the unemployment rate. The fall in joblessness is flattered by declining participation but it still runs in the opposite direction of what markets were expecting.

The Bank of Canada had already indicated a shift to the sidelines but now it might be time to start talking about when it’s time to hike rates.

This also might be a gamechanger for the Canadian dollar, which is at a one-month low now and threatening the October low.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prepared to consider further tariff concessions on products originating in the US
• That only provided that the US is also willing to grant more concessions
• Committed to further improve access to the US market

It’s not the first time that they adopted a draft mandate in dealing with US tariffs in this whole saga. As a reminder, the Swiss government also did the same already in May but back then the tariffs imposed were much higher. They have since been reduced to 15% on 14 November last month. So, the negotiating mandate here is to account for the change. The full press release on what concessions were made by the two sides can be found here.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• The risk mood keeps steadier and more boxed in going into the final stretch of the week
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?
• The Indian Rupee falls again following the RBI’s rate cut: the trend remains negative
• Japan economy minister says specific monetary policy is up to the BOJ to decide
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says taking appropriate steps on disorderly FX moves
• RBI Governor Malhotra on the rupee: Will allow markets to determine levels on currency
• Eurozone Q3 final GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q prelim
• Germany October industrial orders +1.5% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• France October trade balance -€3.92 billion vs -€6.58 billion prior
• UK November Halifax house prices 0.0% vs +0.6% m/m prior
• Swiss government adopts draft negotiating mandate for trade agreement with the US
• Italy’s stats office trims 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%
• China commerce ministry rebuffs that it will ramp up efforts to bolster consumption

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.115%
• Gold up 0.5% to $4,227.18
• WTI crude oil down 0.2% to $59.54
• Bitcoin down 1.0% to $91,205

It was a relatively slow session with not too much action as markets seem content to avoid any drama before the weekend comes along. The risk mood remains rather tentative, with equities keeping steadier in general. So, that’s keeping things in check as we look to wrap up the week before the focus next week turns towards the FOMC meeting.

In FX, there wasn’t too much happening with most major currencies keeping little changed across the board. The aussie and kiwi are a little higher, with AUD/USD continuing to push gains in a break to its highest since the middle of September. The pair is up 0.4% to 0.6635 with little standing in the way of a potential run towards testing the 0.6700 mark again.

Besides that, the dollar is looking to close out the week in steadier fashion after a more sluggish week in general. EUR/USD is flattish around 1.1648 with USD/JPY also just marginally higher by 0.1% to 155.18 currently. The latter did see a solid bounce back from a low of 154.34 earlier in the session, as buyers continue to hold the line in preventing a firm break/daily close below the 155.00 mark.

In the equities space, the mood music remains calm and steady. European indices are posting modest gains in trying to end the week on a more positive note, following the brief setback suffered on Monday. US futures are also a little higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% currently, with Wall Street slowly taking aim at fresh record highs again.

In other markets, bonds are little changed amid a lack of appetite. Meanwhile, gold is trading back up above $4,200 as buyers continue to try and go in search of the next leg higher. However, they are lacking a bit of oomph in securing that breakout despite managing a break from the flag/wedge at the end of last week.

With there being no US non-farm payrolls release this Friday, market players won’t have all too much to work with in wrapping up the week. As such, the focus and attention will shift towards the FOMC meeting next week. It’s going to be yet another central bank bonanza next week, so make sure to get a good rest over the weekend to gear up for that.

I’ll be back again in just a little over a week. So, catch you guys then. Have a great weekend, everyone!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Government will not comment on that
• Hopes that BOJ will guide monetary policy appropriately to stably achieve 2% inflation target
• Hopes for BOJ to work closely in line with the government on principles stipulated in joint agreement
• Important for stock, FX, bond market to move stably reflecting fundamnetals
• Government will watch market moves with high sense of urgency

Well, he’s still trying to press the BOJ a little in hoping that they will steer clear of a rate hike this month. But if anything else, Ueda looks to have his mind made up. So, we’ll have to just wait and see now. USD/JPY has pared its drop on the day in European morning trade here, with the pair now back up to flat levels at 155.08. The low earlier in the day touched 154.34 before dip buyers stepped back in.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Will step up efforts to expand imports
• To also expand services consumption
• Will increase implementation of inclusive policies that directly reach households/consumers
• To eliminate restrictive measures and promote renewal consumption of home appliances

It’s all about trying to revive domestic demand conditions in China and it comes with trying to promote a better environment for consumers in general. The social aspect is also just as important and that is what president Xi’s goal of common prosperity is trying to achieve. Although, that is one that hasn’t quite been talked about that much this year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Meanwhile, the stats office expects the Italian economy to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and that reaffirms their previous estimate. So, no change on that front to the outlook for next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.1%
• GDP +1.4% y/y
• Prior +1.5%

Looking at the breakdown, household consumption contributed 0.1% to GDP growth on the quarter with government expenditure (+0.1%) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2%) also seen increasing. Changes in inventories were also positive (+0.1%) and the only offsetting factor was exports less imports (-0.2%).

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 8/12/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior -€6.58 billion; revised to -€6.35 billion

The French trade deficit narrowed modestly in October, as exports were seen down 0.5% on the month while imports slumped by 4.6% on the month. The less volatile three-month moving average trade balance though was -€5.2 billion, just marginally changed from the -€5.1 billion in September.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Government taking appropriate steps on excessive, disorderly moves in FX market if necessary
• Expect BOJ to conduct monetary policy appropriately
• Important for FX market to move steadily and stably

It’s just some added verbal intervention, though they can be a little bit happier surely that the Japanese yen didn’t tumble further this week. It’ll be the first time the currency posts back-to-back weekly gains against the dollar since August. USD/JPY looks to be running with a firmer break under 155.00 now, with the pair down 0.4% to 154.40 on the day as the dollar remains weak.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

• Prior +1.1%; revised to +2.0%

German factory orders came in with a beat in October, even with the more positive revision to the September figures as well. That’s a positive and even when you exclude large orders from the equation, new orders were 0.5% higher than in the previous month. However, the less volatile three-month comparison does show a decline in new orders by 0.1% (after excluding large orders). The main jump in October owes much to a a large order in the “Other Vehicle Construction” sector (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles), which saw a 87.1% jump in that compared to September.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.