Articles

• Major US stock indices close lower
• “So, what do you think is going to happen after the FOMC meeting?”
• Von Der Leyen: Had call with Trump on strengthening pressure on Russia
• Mark Carney’s first budget as Canadian Prime Minister will be released Nov 4
• Wall Street Journal: The framework for the TikTok deal (still to be approved)
• Crude oil futures settle at $64.52
• Canadian RBC cardholder data shows that the consumer remains resilient
• White House extends deadline to sell TikTok until December 18th
• The US treasury sells $13B of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.613%
• European indices fall sharply in trading today
• Atlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for third-quarter 3.4% versus 3.1% last
• Gold prices extends above $3700 to a new all-time high
• US business inventories for July 0.2% versus 0.2% expected
• NAHB housing market index for September 32 versus 33 estimate
• US August industrial production +0.1% vs -0.1% expected
• Trump says there is a deal on TikTok
• Trump says ‘Fed needs to be independent’ as he signs documents for Miran
• US retail sales for August 0.6% versus 0.2% estimate
• US import prices for August +0.3% vs -0.1% expected
• Canada August CPI inflation 1.9% y/y vs 2.0% expected
• The USD is lower to start the US session with declines vs the EUR and CHF leading
• Canada August housing starts 245.8K vs 277.5K expected
• investingLive European FX news wrap: US dollar eases further, US indices reach new highs

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August, well above the 0.2% expected, with the prior month revised up to 0.6% from 0.5%. Ex-autos, sales gained 0.7% vs 0.4% forecast, while the control group — which feeds directly into GDP — also advanced 0.7% vs 0.4% expected, pointing to solid momentum in consumer spending.

Ex-autos and gas, sales climbed 0.7% vs 0.3% prior, which was revised higher. Category gains included clothing (+1.0%), sporting goods/hobbies (+0.8%), and motor vehicle dealers (+0.5%), though some of the increase may reflect higher import prices.

The strength in retail sales should support GDP tracking estimates. Today, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q3 rose to 3.4% from 3.1%.

While the report is unlikely to alter tomorrow’s FOMC decision with the expectations of a 25 basis point cut in reaction to the weakness in recent jobs data, it could influence the debate among policymakers, particularly with new Fed Governor Miran potentially joining Bowman and Waller in pushing for a larger 50 bp cut (just because) .

The focus tomorrow will be on the decision, the vote, and the expectations for rates going forward. Will the dot plot show 1 or 2 more rate cuts between now and the end of the year? What will the rate path look like in 2026. Of course market will also be interested in what Fed chair Powell has to say. Expectations are that he would prefer to not pre-commit – especially given the stronger retail sales data today and inflation that is still above the 2% target. Nevertheless, if the dissenters push, he may be inclined to allow their voice be heard through his if he feels the need to speak for the committee.

In other economic data today

• Industrial production was not as positive. Industrial production in August edged up 0.1% vs -0.1% expected, with the prior month revised lower to -0.4% from -0.1%. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% vs -0.2% expected, while capacity utilization held steady at 77.4%, in line with forecasts. On a yearly basis, industrial production slowed to +0.87% from +1.27% previously, signaling modest growth but a clear loss of momentum compared to earlier in the year.
• The NAHB housing market index for September came in at 32 vs 33 expected, unchanged from the prior month. Current sales conditions held steady at 34, while buyer traffic slipped to 21 (-1), underscoring persistent weakness in demand. However, future sales expectations rose to 45 (+2), suggesting some optimism ahead of anticipated Fed rate cuts, which the NAHB expects to begin at tomorrow’s meeting.
• U.S. business inventories rose 0.2% in July, matching expectations and the prior month’s pace. Retail inventories ex-autos also increased 0.1%, steady with June. The inventories-to-sales ratio eased to 1.37 from 1.40 a year earlier, indicating slightly leaner stock levels relative to sales compared to last year.

U.S. stocks opened higher with Oracle leading the charge on reports it could play a central role in a TikTok deal. Oracle shares surged to an intraday high of $319.97, but those outsized gains faded, mirroring the broader tech sector. The Nasdaq climbed as much as 48.75 points early on, before momentum reversed, dragging the index to a -40 point session low and ultimately closing down 14.79 points.

Looking at the major indices, all close modestly lower:

• Dow industrial average fell -0.27%
• S&P index fell -0.13%
• NASDAQ index fell -0.07%
• Russell 2000 fell at -0.09%

European shares did not fare as well relatively with the

• German DAX falling -1.77%,
• France’s CAC -1.00%,
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.28%, and
• Spain’s Ibex -1.51%.

The U.S. dollar came under broad pressure throughout the session, with several majors hitting significant technical milestones.

• EURUSD surged to fresh year-to-date highs at 1.1864, the strongest level since September 2024. Key close risk lies at 1.1829 (prior swing high), with a more conservative support marker at 1.1788 (July high).

• GBPUSD advanced toward a swing area from June/July between 1.3673–1.36826, though momentum stalled just shy at 1.3671 before easing back to 1.3649.

• USDCHF was the standout mover, dropping -1.07% and breaking the July 1 low at 0.78714, extending losses to the weakest level since 2011. A rebound above that prior low could trigger some short-covering if downside momentum falters.

• AUDUSD climbed into a swing zone at 0.6684–0.6694 and tested an upward sloping trendline near the same region. The pair peaked at 0.66874, dipped to 0.6679, and rebounded into the close.

US yields are trading lower with the shorter end leading the way:

• 2-year yield 3.509%, -2.6 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.588%, -1.2 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.029%, -0.4 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.649%, -0.5 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

We have data points arriving from:

• New Zealand
• Japan
• and Australia

in that order.

I’m not expecting too much market impact from any of these upon release.

• This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.
• The times in the left-most column are GMT.
• The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mark Carney’s first budget as prime minister will be released November 4. It was hinted for October but it’s now scheduled for November 4. Finance Minister Champagne made the announcement in the House of Commons.

This is likely to be the most-significant budget in many years, as Carney tries to chart a course away from the United States and encourage nation-building projects. Some of the measures around home building have already been floated and I would expect more leaks in the weeks to come. Critical will be tax policy, which is less likely to leak but will have a big impact on bonds and the Canadian dollar. Carney already announced a tax cut on income below $58,000 to 14% from 15% which is probably all for regular tax payers but corporate rates could be lowered in response to US tax cuts.

Economists see a deficit of around C$70 billion this year, a big jump from $40 billion forecast in January, in large part due to the US trade war. Carney has been trying to draw a line between the operating deficit and deficits driven by short-term investment spending in things like ports, railways and nation-building projects.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Wall Street Journal has been given the framework for the TikTok deal. Here are the details:

Structure of the Deal

• New U.S. entity: TikTok’s U.S. operations would be spun into a new company.

• Ownership: U.S. investors—including Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz—would control ~80%, with Chinese shareholders holding the remainder.

• Board: Majority American-dominated, with one seat designated by the U.S. government.

Technology & Data

• Algorithms: Re-created by a U.S.-based engineering team, using technology licensed from ByteDance.

• Data security: Oracle to manage U.S. user data at facilities in Texas.

• Chinese concessions: Beijing agreed to allow licensing of TikTok’s algorithm and related IP.

Transition for Users

• Existing U.S. TikTok users would migrate to a new app being built and tested.

Political Context

• Talks in Madrid produced the framework.

• Trump confirmed: “We’ve got a deal on TikTok. I’ll speak to Xi on Friday to confirm.”

• Beijing pushing for a Trump visit to China later this year.

• Negotiations trace back to January 2025, tied to a U.S. law signed in 2024 requiring TikTok to restructure or leave the market.

Investor Breakdown

• U.S.-based investors include Oracle, Silver Lake, Andreessen Horowitz, and existing ByteDance investors like Susquehanna International, KKR, and General Atlantic.

• ByteDance’s Chinese shareholder stake drops below 20%, meeting U.S. legal requirements.

Remaining Issues

• National security: U.S. and Chinese officials still wary of potential influence over algorithms and user data.

• Scrutiny: Final details subject to approval in both capitals.

✅ Summary in one line: TikTok’s U.S. business will be spun into a new Oracle-led consortium with 80% U.S. ownership, American-controlled governance, licensed algorithms, and Oracle-managed data in Texas, with final terms awaiting Trump–Xi confirmation.

Shares of Oracle are currently trading up $1.30 or 0.48% at $303.46

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling up $1.22 or 1.93% at $64.52.

Looking at the daily chart above, the price rise at the end of the day has taken the price back above its 100-day moving average at $64.32. Getting and staying above that moving average tilts the bias more positive.

The price still remains below the 50% of the range since the April low at $66.36. The price is also below the falling 200-day moving average at $67.01. Getting above both those levels would add more bullishness to oil from a technical perspective.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I have been keeping an eye on RBC cardholder spending data for the past couple years and it’s an increasingly-useful and timely measure of Canadian retail sales.

The latest version is just out and it paints a mixed picture. Core sales rose a solid 0.4% m/m in August but the headline fell 2.2% m/m. Dragging down the headline was s dip in gasoline prices.

Spending on clothing along with the ‘arts and entertainment’ categories accelerated while the ‘household and construction’ category softened slightly. Spending at grocery stores has been largely flat since May.

RBC economist Rachel Battaglia focused on the rise in core sales.

“This trend aligns with our broader economic outlook . We believe
Canada’s economy will resume slow, but positive, GDP growth after a Q2
decline with relatively resilient consumer spending offsetting
persistent headwinds in the industrial sector,” she wrote.

On net, I take this data as a solid indication for the loonie.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The White House says they will kick the TikTok can down the road- again. The deadline to sell has now been extended to December 18th.

The most recent “can kicking” was to expire tomorrow. Nevertheless, the framework for a deal is apparently known. The details are not known.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• High yield 4.613%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.615%
• Tail -0.2 basis points vs 6 month average of 0.4 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.74X vs 6 month average of 2.65X
• Directs 27..87% vs 6 month average of 19.5%
• Indirects 64.56% vs 6 mongh average of 67.2%
• Dealers 7.57% vs 6 month average of 13.3%

Domestic demand was strong at 27.87% vs 19.5% average. The bid to cover was above the average. The auction had a negative tail and the dealers were saddled with a low 7.57% vs 13.3%.

Overal grade: A-. Solid.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan JERA is in advanced talks to buy USD $1.7B worth of Natural gas production from GeoSotuthern Energy and Williams Companies Joint Venture.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The European indices fell sharply with the German Dax tumbling 1.79% -its worst day since September 2nd. France’s CAC snapped a 6 day win streak with a 1% decline.

A look at the major indices shows:

• German Dax -1.7&%
• France’s CAC -1.00%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.88%
• Spain’s Ibex -1.51%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.28%.

As London/European traders exit for the day, the US indices have turned negative:

• Dow industrial average is down -121 points or 0.26%
• S&P index is down -11.32 points or -0.17%
• Nasdaq index is down -37.38 points or -0.17%.

US yields are now lower on the day:

• 2-year yield 3.517%, -2.1 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.584%, -1.5 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.026%, -0.8 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.645%, -0.9% basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 32
• Current sales condition 34 unchanged
• Buyer traffic -1 to 21
• Future sales expectations +2 to 45

NAHB expects the Fed to cut rates at its meeting tomorrow

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 0.2%
• Retail inventories ex autos 0.1% versus 0.1% last month
• The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July was 1.37. The July 2024 ratio was 1.40.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.