Articles

• Prior month 0.2%
• Retail inventories ex autos 0.1% versus 0.1% last month
• The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of July was 1.37. The July 2024 ratio was 1.40.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

.

• Fed should be an independent body.
• Miran is signed on as a FOMC Gov.
• Says that Hamas using hostages as a human shield would get them in “big trouble” (justifying Israel’s attack in Gaza city)
• We are having trillions of dollars come in because of the tariffs.
• We have a deal with TikTokI will be announcing a buyer
• EU is passed $950 billion a year. Japan $650 billion.
• China is paying us overall about 55% in tariffs
• If we win this Supreme Court case we will be by far the richest country in the world. We are taking in trillions of dollars in tariffs.
• Zelenskyy is going to have to make a deal. Looks like we will need to sit in a room with Russian and Ukrainian presidents.
• Europe must stop buying oil from Russia
• On Venezuela, says stop sending gang members, people from prison into our country

Meanwhile, US stocks are mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.18%. The S&P unchanged and the NASDAQ index with a small 0.5% rise.

Focus is on TikTok has been on Oracle. Its shares are currently up $13.21 or 4.42% at $315.52. Recall that Oracle announced last week stronger-than-expected earnings going forward. It’s price surged from $241.51 to a high price on September 10 at $345.72. On Friday, the price dipped all the way down to a low of $291.71 before starting a rebound yesterday and today. Yesterday the price moved up around $10. The price is still well below the high price from last week’s trade.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was -0.1% (prior was -0.1%, revised to -0.4%)
• Capacity utilization 77.4% vs 77.4% expected
• Manufacturing output +0.2% vs -0.2% expected
• Industrial production y/y +0.87% vs +1.27% prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil is near a two-week high on a report that Russian oil producers may be forced to cut output due to attacks on ports and refineries.

Reuters reports that Transneft (Russia’s pipeline monopoly) warned producers they may have to cut output following a series of drone attacks on Russian energy assets.

“Transneft, which handles more than 80% of all the oil extracted in
Russia, has in recent days restricted oil firms’ ability to store oil in
its pipeline system, two industry sources close to Russian oil firms
told Reuters.”

WTI crude oil is up 73-cents to $64.03.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 1.7%
• CPI m/m -0.1% vs +0.1% expected (prior +0.3%)

Core measures

• CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 2.6% vs 2.7% expected (prior was 2.6%)
• CPI Bank of Canada core m/m 0.0% vs +0.1% prior
• Core CPI m/m SA +0.2% vs 0.1% prior (revised to 0.2%)
• Trim 3.0% versus 3.0% expected (prior was 3.0%)
• Median 3.1% versus 3.1% expected (prior was 3.1%)
• Common 2.5% versus 2.6% prior

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior +0.4% (revised to +0.2%)
• Export prices m/m +0.3% vs 0.0% expected
• Prior +0.1% (revised to +0.3%)
• Import prices y/y 0.0% vs -0.2% prior
• Export prices y/y +3.4% vs +2.2% prior

Higher prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower prices for fuel imports in August.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Prior month 0.5% revised to 0.6%
• Retail sales 0.6% versus 0.2% expected.
• Retail sales ex-autos 0.7% vs 0.4% estimate. Last month revised from 0.3% to 0.4%.
• Retail sales control group 0.7% versus 0.4% estimate
• retail sales ex gas/autos 0.7% versus 0.3% last month (revised higher from 0.2%)

The control group moving up by 0.7% feeds directly into GDP and should give a boost for that measure. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate was at 3.1% on September 11. It is scheduled to be revised today.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 17/9/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Prior was 294.1K
• Starts down 16% m/m

This is a dip but it comes after several strong months. I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Canadian housing market but the Bank of Canada might save the day if it tilts a bit more dovish and gets rates to 2%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US Bessent: If Trump thought inflation was a problem, he’d be willing to have rate hikes
• ECB’s Simkus: Santa Claus may come, he may trim the Christmas tree, but not significantly
• ECB’s Scicluna: There is no cut already in a box and waiting to be unpacked
• Eurozone July industrial production +0.3% vs +0.4% m/m expected
• Germany ZEW survey current conditions -76.4 vs -75.0 expected
• EU’s von der Leyen: AI is reshaping global tech competition
• Italy August final CPI +1.6% vs +1.6% y/y prelim
• False alarm: the big spike in initial claims was caused by fraudulent filings in Texas
• Latest sanctions package against Russia not to be discussed this week, says EU officials
• ECB’s Kazaks: Reduction in ECB rates is already very significant
• UK July ILO unemployment rate 4.7% vs 4.7% expected
• ECB’s Villeroy: French growth is not strong enough but remains positive
• RBA’s Hauser: AUD has been a well-functioning ‘natural’ hedge for global risk assets
• Fed to stick with a 25 bps rate cut this week – Morgan Stanley
• FX option expiries for 16 September 10am New York cut

It’s been a relatively calm session in terms of data releases and newsflow. The main highlight were the UK employment report and the German ZEW survey.

The UK data was mostly in line with expectations, so it didn’t change anything in terms of market pricing. The German ZEW, on the other hand, missed expectations slightly but the future outlook index surprised to the upside.

We also had a few ECB speakers throughout the session but the gist of it is that the central bank is on a hard pause and they will need significant reasons to adjust rates again. In absence of shocks, small deviations from their target won’t require an adjustment.

In the final part of the session we also got comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent on various topics. They were all positive as he remains upbeat on a deal with China and expects the Supreme Court to back Trump’s administration on tariffs.

In markets, the most notable mover has been the US dollar. The greenback weakened further, especially against the Euro and the Swiss Franc. This has been the playbook since last Thursday when we got an in-line CPI and weak initial jobless claims. It turned out that initial claims were negatively skewed by fraudulent filings in Texas, so we can expect them to be revised lower.

The Core PCE for August though is expected to have risen by just 0.2%, keeping the Y/Y rate at 2.9%. That and two consecutive soft NFP reports kept the dovish bets on the Fed intact, although it’s unlikely to see the FOMC outdove the market pricing tomorrow.

This dovish positioning into the FOMC is also what kept on supporting risk assets. The US indices today reached new highs with gold also extending the rally into new all-time highs.

In the American session we have the Canadian CPI and the US Retail Sales data coming up.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Hope the Fed catches up
• We will see if the Fed is neutral or accomodative
• Trump thinks the Fed is behind the curve
• Now going to start working on affordability
• Front end of the curve is inverted
• Expect we will see inflation starting to come down
• Long end is very well anchored

On Miran:

• Plan is for him to come back to CEA

On Bullard:

• He knows the Fed very well
• Had a good session

On Tariffs:

• Confident Supreme Court will back administration
• Lots of other authorities we can use
• Tariffs will help us pay down the debt

On China:

• Talks were done with great respect, very fulsome
• China had long list of asks
• Trump made it clear he was willing to let it go dark (TikTok)
• Expressed disappointment on Nvidia to China
• Anticipate we have a deal
• Anticipate final deal after Trump, Xi talk on Friday
• Talks are becoming more productive
• The Chinese sense a deal is possible
• The next meeting with China is in Frankfurt

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

• Easing cycle is nearing its end, but might not yet be over.
• Inflation is expected to remain around 2% in the medium term.

Seems like the ECB members are in the mood for Christmas puns today. Anyway, Simkus’s comments are the most dovish we got until now and this puts him in the minority.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.