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Core:

• Prior was +2.5%
• Core m/m 0.2% vs +0.15% exp
• Unrounded core PCE +0.1788%
• Supercore (services ex-shelter)
• Services inflation

Headline PCE:

• Headline PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expected
• Deflator +0.1% m/m vs +0.12% expected
• Unrounded m/m +0.1358%

Consumer spending and income for March :

• Personal income -0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.8%
• Personal spending -0.1% vs +0.1% expected. Prior month +0.2%
• Real personal spending -0.3% vs +0.1% prior
• Savings rate

USD/JPY was trading at 144.58 ahead of the data.

This isn’t a great report on a couple fronts. The headline was in-line (though a touch high unrounded) but core was hotter than expected. The income side was weak and so was spending, which fits in with some of the corporate commentary we’ve heard (like Target).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month +0.1% (revised to +0.2%)
• Advanced estimate for the month of May -0.1%

The goods-producing industries were down 0.6% in April, with the manufacturing sector accounting for nearly all the decline. The
services-producing industries edged up 0.1% in April.

Public
administration, finance and insurance, and the arts, entertainment and
recreation sectors contributed the most to the increase, while the
wholesale trade sector was the largest detractor to growth.
Overall, 10 of 20 industrial sectors expanded in April.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The latest print on US inflation is due at the bottom of the hour. So far, the inflation hit from tariffs has been modest and the market is sanguine but that could change in short order. Given that we’ve seen May CPI already, I don’t think there are any big surprises coming today though. The consensus is 2.3% y/y on the headline and 2.6% y/y on core.

The other notable part of the release is on personal consumption and it could end up being the market mover. The consensus is +0.1% m/m but yesterday’s GDP report (albeit for Q1) showed surprising weakness in consumption that hasn’t (yet?) showed up in many official data points.

Along with the US report, we also get the Canadian GDP reading for April.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• After 10 or 12 deals, there are 20 more important ones.

The Labor Day in the US is on September 1st and he’s obviously alluding here that there’s no deadline in July. So basically there’s no deadline at all.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Official data so far reveals only modest impact of tariffs on prices, activity, labor market.
• If the Fed cuts in September and tariff effect shows up later, could pause rate cuts.
• Inflation boost is likely coming, but actual inflation indicates renewed progress towards 2% target.
• More time is needed to determine if effects of trade war are delayed, or if it will be smaller than thought.
• Emphasis must be on actual inflation, real economic data without committing to an easing policy path in case tariff effects delayed.

There’s nothing new here from Kashkari. He’s been on this camp for a while.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 30/6/2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• This is a de-escalation.
• Agreement with China will allow magnets to flow to everyone who received them before on a regular basis.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Major currencies not up to much to start the session
• China says London talks served to further confirm details on framework
• China reportedly seeks to tie French cognac deal with EV tariff talks
• ECB’s Knot: The ECB may well need to keep rates on hold for some time
• ECB’s de Guindos says on track to meet 2% inflation target
• PBoC: Will enhance monetary policy adjustment strength
• US Core PCE is expected at 2.6% Y/Y but it won’t change anything for the Fed
• Eurozone June final consumer confidence -15.3 vs -15.3 prelim
• France June preliminary CPI +0.9% vs +0.7% y/y expected
• Spain June preliminary CPI +2.2% vs +2.0% y/y expected
• Italy June consumer confidence 96.1 vs 97.0 expected

Markets:

• EUR leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 2.2 bps to 4.275%
• Gold down 1.3% to $3,283.68
• WTI crude up 0.4% to $65.48
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $106,998

It was another quiet session with little in terms of any major movements in the FX space. The dollar is keeping steadier on the day, with light changes all around but in the bigger picture remains in a more vulnerable spot following the losses yesterday.

It’s a build up now towards the US PCE price index release and month-end trading.

EUR/USD kept steady just above 1.1700 with USD/JPY also just a touch higher around 144.40-60 levels for the most part. Meanwhile, USD/CHF is testing waters under 0.6800 while AUD/USD is still trying to secure a breakout above daily resistance around 0.6537-50.

This comes amid a more positive backdrop in equities as investors look towards fresh record highs in Wall Street later in the day. European indices opened higher and held that momentum, hoping to trim down some of the losses for the month. US futures remain buoyed, with S&P 500 futures now up 0.4% close to the highs.

In other markets, gold is knocked down in a push below $3,300 and is now down on the month as precious metals slide back today.

The market focus is back on trade developments and the economy/central banks, though month-end flows will distract from that a little today and on Monday. All that before a fresh start in July as we move on from the last two weeks of geopolitical tensions.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In an hour, we’ll get the latest US PCE price index where professional forecasters expect the Core PCE Y/Y to tick higher to 2.6% and the M/M figure to come in at 0.15% which could see it being rounded either to 0.1% or 0.2% depending on the last decimal.

The data won’t change anything for the Fed or the market though because it’s kinda “old news”. Forecasters (and the Fed) can reliably project the PCE data from the CPI and PPI reports. This is why the CPI is much more market-moving.

The next NFP and CPI reports will be much more important. Soft or hot figures will influence the market pricing and therefore move the markets.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

French cognac makers are reported to have reached a tentative deal with China to sort out prices but Beijing is said to want to only finalise that if there is progress made on EU tariffs over Chinese EVs. For some context, China imposed temporary duties on cognac as part of an anti-dumping investigation into European brandy. This was done in retaliation to the EU’s move of imposing added tariffs on imports of Chinese-made EVs.

If no agreement is struck by the 5 July deadline, China could permanently increase customs duties of up to 39% on European cognac imports. It’s a major blow for French cognac makers, which have been suffering already, with China being the world’s most valuable market for the spirit. Here’s an indication of the struggle since last year:

The sources report that there is now a provisional agreement, which will be “much better” than the existing duties. However, they are waiting on the sign off by Chinese authorities who are believed to want to link “finalising the cognac deal to movement on the electric vehicle dossier”.

It’s all a game of tradeoff it would seem now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Will keep liquidity ample.
• To guide financial institutions to step up credit supply.
• Will enhance central bank policy interest rate guidance.
• To give full play to the role of the self-discipline mechanism for market interest rate pricing.
• To enhance interest rate policy implementation.
• To guide social financing cost to lower.
• To pay attention to the changes in long-term yields in bond market.
• To prevent forex rate overshooting risk.
• To keep yuan exchange rate basically stable at reasonable, balanced level.
• To intensify efforts to revitalise existing commercial housing and land.

We have heard this stuff many times before, but they continue to have positive real rates in a deflationary environment. They should cut more aggressively and faster in my opinion.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil erased all the war
gains following the end of the Israel-Iran conflict as the geopolitical risk premium vanished. The focus now switched back to global growth.

The market was already supported by
positive growth expectations before the conflict started. In fact, we
have Fed rate cuts ahead, Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and further
de-escalation in trade war and so on. These are all positive drivers for
demand.

In
the bigger picture, the market might remain rangebound between the 60
and 90 levels, but the path of least resistance should remain to the upside.

On the daily chart, we can see that the buyers are stepping in around the key support zone at 64.00-65.00 to position for a rally back into the 72.00 resistance. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting the 55.00 level next.

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the bearish momentum waned right at
the support zone. We will likely keep on consolidating here until we get a bullish or bearish catalyst, but this zone should be key for the market.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.