Articles

Trump spoke in the Israel-Iran conflict on Sunday morning US time, ABC News:

• “We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved”

Later in the day he added:

• Trump says US will continue to support Israel

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New bank loans in China rose less than expected in May, totaling 620 billion yuan

• missing forecasts of 850 billion despite recent rate cuts and a temporary U.S.-China trade truce

• This follows a nine-month low in April

Year-on-year loan growth slowed to a record low of 7.1%, down from 7.2% in April.

• Household loans (mostly mortgages) grew slightly in May (+54bn) after a sharp contraction in April, but corporate loan demand weakened.

• Broad M2 money supply rose 7.9% y/y, also below expectations of 8.1%, and down from April’s 8.0%.

• Total social financing (TSF) growth remained steady at 8.7%, supported by increased government bond issuance.

Analysts cited persistent deflation pressures and elevated real borrowing costs as key factors dampening private credit demand, despite modest central bank easing:

• Reuters cite Capital Economics expecting further rate cuts of up to 40 basis points later this year to support growth.

Earlier:

• PBOC says it will will inject cash via outright reverse repos for the second time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korean Finance Ministry:

• Closely monitoring financial markets
• South Korea will provide financial and shipping support to exporters

Trade war concerns weighing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK Rightmove House Prices for June 2025:

-0.3% m/m, compared with a typical 0.4% rise for the usual month of June

• prior +0.6%

+0.8% y/y, smallest annual rise since August 2024

• prior +1.2%

Rightmove commentary:

• “It appears that we’re now seeing the decade-high level of
  homes for sale, and the recent stamp duty increases in England,
  have a delayed impact on new sellers’ pricing”
• more competitive pricing helping sales activity
• number of agreed sales had risen to the highest in more
  than three years

—

GBP update, little net change to begin the new week so far:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The yen is weakening further.

In the first hour of Israeli action again Iran on Friday the yen jumped higher but since then its been almost one-way traffic lower.

USD/JPY did track sideways ofr much of the US session Friday but its jumped out of that range now. Higher oil prices are not a bullish factor for yen, with Japan a substantial importer of energy. Higher US Treasury yields also weighing on it.

The Bank of Japan meet today and tomorrow and are expected to leave rates on hold. Eyes will be on JGB buying plans:

• BOJ officials expect the benchmark interest rate left at 0.5%
• BOJ now expected to keep interest rates unchanged through to year-end – survey
• BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace of bond tapering amid market strain

Earlier I reported on futures moves:

Much of the moves retracing now. ES, NQ more or less flat and oil have pulled back much of its gap higher open.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI)

For May 2025, 44.0, lowest level of activity since June 2024

• prior 48.1
• long-run average 53.0

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel (bolding is mine):

• “the fall in the PSI follows the sharp decline in the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) from 53.3 to 47.5. Together, they are consistent with the economy returning to recession. We’re a long way from forecasting this, but the data are a reminder of just how vulnerable the economy currently is”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump talking to reporters as he left for the G7 summit in Canada:

• Says he hopes there will be a deal between Iran and Israel, but sometimes you have to fight it out
• Says he does not want to say if he has asked Israel to pause strikes on Iran
• Says US will continue to support Israel in its defense

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The latest news out of the Middle East sis that hostilities continue. Recent:

• IDF is currently striking surface-to-surface missile sites in central Iran
• Israeli bombing of Revolutionary Guard camps in Qazvin
• attack at Parchin, a significant military complex near Tehran
• Iran. Yemen’s Houthis continue to launch missiles into Israel

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Iran has told mediators from Qatar and Oman that it won’t engage in negotiations while it is under attack, according to an official familiar with the talks.

• This stance applies to both ceasefire discussions with Israel and efforts to restart nuclear deal talks with the United States.

• The official said Iran made it clear that it will only consider serious negotiations after it has completed its response to Israel’s recent pre-emptive strikes.

Info comes via The Times of Israel.

The report is along the same lines as this I poste earlier:

• Al Jazeera cite Iran Foreign Minister: “will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy”

Like I said earlier, I can’t vouch for the veracity of these reports, just passing them along.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

This is via Al Jazeera Arabic, I used Google to translate the tweet:

• Iranian Foreign Minister: We will prepare the ground for a return to diplomacy and negotiations if the Israeli aggression stops.

If this is true it’s a step in the right direction towards ending the war.

I’m not vouching for its veracity, just passing it along and hoping.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A US official has said once again the the country is not considering joining the war with Iran.

ABC news reported the comment.

Despite this the US is taking steps, perhaps in an abundance of caution. The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group appear to be on a course towards the Middle East. If so, that’d be three US Navy aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran (USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz are already there) along with one from the UK’s Royal Navy (HMS Prince of Wales).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan begins its two-day monetary policy meeting today, tune in tomorrow for the results from this:

• BOJ officials expect the benchmark interest rate left at 0.5%
• BOJ now expected to keep interest rates unchanged through to year-end – survey
• BOJ expected to hold rates, slow pace of bond tapering amid market strain

As for today, it’s a light calendar, eyes on the headlines with sepcial attention on the Middle East:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.