Beijing will reopen primary and secondary schools for in-person classes. Senior and middle high schools were allowed to return to classrooms from June 2, now all are reopening. Beijing shut its schools in early May and moved to online learning.
It’s a mixed bag still in Shanghai. The city’s Communist Party chief spoke on Saturday, saying his authorities had “won the war to defend Shanghai” against COVID. Meanwhile in Shanghai,
In Shenzhen on Saturday an announcement that it would shut all cinemas and parks, and all public events have been suspended in one district after 6 local cases were found. 50% capacity constraints were set for restaurants in the district
Shenzen residents must show a negative COVID-19 test to enter public venues & transport taken within the last 24 hours (from 48 hours previously).
There are signs of improvement in China, but also setbacks. Volatility in reopening will continue, thus in the economy also.
China is struggling to emerge from 2020:Full Article
Ripple price sees newfound interest amidst resurfaced Central Bank Digital Currency rumors.
Ripple’s XRP price ascends after the company launches the official headquarters in Toronto with plans to hire 100 new employees. Theories that Ripple may become a pivotal technology for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) have long been assumed in the crypto space. Ripple themselves have taken to Twitter, hinting at the possibility.
Ripple price, as of Saturday, June 25, trades at $0.36. The digital remittance token has shown an influx in buying pressure on intra-hour time frames. If the technicals can sustain, the bulls will likely print a bullish Morning Star pattern which will be a favorable entry signal for long-term investors. As previously mentioned, a break above the psychological $0.40 barrier could trigger a buying frenzy in the coming weeks to propel the XRP price back to $0.51.
XRP/USDT 1-Week Chart
With talks of Ripple becoming a CBDC integrative solution, and a sudden demand for new employees, the legendary rumor of Ripple becoming a one-world currency to replace the US dollar is starting to resurface on social media.
History has shown that Cryptocurrenies can be highly aroused in value solely from social media hype. The CBDC speculation (though unproven) could be enough to create a FOMO-style market environment for the Ripple price in the coming weeks. A $0.51 target is conservative, but a $1.00 target will be unsurprising if the one-world currency myth continues to kindle on social media.
Anyone looking to join the bullish speculation should keep the previous weekly low as their invalidation point at $0.28. If the bears can breach this barrier, a fall to $0.20 could occur, resulting in a 40% decrease from the current Ripple price.
Based on data from a blockchain intelligence firm report, Dogecoin is widely used to finance illegal activities. Analysts predict a continuation of Dogecoin’s uptrend in the current bear market.
Elliptic, a blockchain analytics firm recently published a report tying Dogecoin to several illicit activities such as terrorism financing and ponzi schemes. A vast majority of illicit activity analyzed by Elliptic accepted Dogecoin for financing their activities.
Israel’s National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing issued a seizure order against 84 cryptocurrency addresses, associated with the Hamas group, and one of the wallet contained nearly $40,000 in Dogecoin.
The number of vendors on the darnet that accept Dogecoin has increased consistently. There have been at least 50 cases where criminals cashed out millions of dollars in Dogecoin. This raises concerns among regulators, however Dogecoin price resumed its uptrend despite the report.
Though malware campaigns and extremist groups accept Dogecoin, the meme coin has found utility at firms like Tesla and SpaceX.
Analysts believe Dogecoin price could break out of its downtrend. Azeez Mustafa, a leading crypto analyst argues that if Dogecoin sustains its bullish movement, it could continue its uptrend. If Dogecoin price crosses resistance at 0.00000370 BTC, the asset could affirm its uptrend.
DOGE-BTC price chart
FXStreet analysts believe self-proclaimed Dogefather Elon Musk’s speech was key to the meme coin’s price trend. Dogecoin price broke into an uptrend, in response to Musk’s comments in a recent Bloomberg Interview at the Qatar Economic Forum. Analysts have predicted where Dogecoin is headed next. For more information, watch this video:
Solana network announced the launch of its mobile phone, Saga, an Android. The phone marks Solana’s foray into mobile-focused growth in the Web3 ecosystem. The Ethereum-killer’s announcement has fueled a bullish sentiment among holders.
The Solana network, considered one of the leading competitors of the largest altcoin Ethereum, is launching its own mobile phone called “Saga.” The Android handset’s key blockchain stakeholder is Solana Labs.
Solana Labs is modifying an OSOM handset with specialty crypto wallet functions and adding a Solana Mobile Stack (SMS) development kit for decentralized applications, Web3 programs. Solana Labs announced the launch of the phone in a conference last week, and it triggered a bullish sentiment among holders.
Anatoly Yakovenko, CEO of Solana Labs said that the mobile phone would cost about $1,000 and will be available for delivery in early 2023. Solana has moved on to mobile-focused growth and “Solana Pay” will be integrated to enable on-chain payments.
Analysts have evaluated the Solana price chart and predicted a continuation of the Ethereum-killer’s uptrend. Brian Bollinger, a crypto analyst argues that MACD indicator slope is rising and this indicates growth in underlying bullishness. There is an increase in interest in long positions in Solana and the altcoin could continue its uptrend. The next resistance for Solana price is at $48 level.
SOL-USDT price chart
FXStreet analysts believe Solana price presents an excellent opportunity for traders. For more information and price targets for the Ethereum-killer Solana, watch this video:
Ethereum price rally continues despite the drop in mining profitability. With the decline in Ethereum mining profitability, electricity consumption dropped as nearly 50% of miners were forced to shut shop and stop their operation.
The recent crypto bloodbath resulted in a spike in overhead costs for miners. Miners on the Ethereum network, faced hardships as Ethereum price plummeted in the recent crypto bloodbath. With a decline in electricity consumption, experts predicted that miners are pulling out of the two large cryptocurrency networks- Bitcoin and Ethereum.
On May 23, electricity consumption on the Ethereum network was 93.98 TW/h and there was a steep decline soon after. The network’s electricity consumption has declined nearly 50%, to 47.43 TW/h in the past month.
Energy consumption on the Ethereum network
Based on the daily Ethereum price chart, analysts at Inside Bitcoins noted that ETH recently crossed above the 21-day moving average and the next resistance is at $1,400. This could open doors for increase to $1,600 level and analysts have set bullish targets at $1,800, $2,000 and $2,200.
Analysts have predicted a climb towards the upper boundary of the channel, and predicted a continuation of Ethereum price uptrend.
ETH-USD price chart
FXStreet analysts have identified the upside target for Ethereum price in the current uptrend. For more information, watch this video.
MicroStrategy, a leading data intelligence firm suffers losses as share price plummets. Michael Saylor remains bullish on Bitcoin despite the bloodbath, remains unfazed by mass sell-off.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the recent Bitcoin price crash generated $3.5 billion in losses for MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor. In February 2021, MicroStrategy shares and options peaked at $3 billion, since then it plunged to $355 million, an 86% drawdown.
Under CEO Michael Saylor’s leadership, MicroStrategy has spent $4 billion on buying cryptocurrency, as of March 31, 2022. This strategy proved to be effective in the crypto rally during the pandemic, when tech stocks and Bitcoin hit record highs. MicroStrategy is now hit by a historic sell-off and witnessed a decline steeper than Nasdaq 100.
The total impairment charges on MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings have reached roughly $1 billion at the end of the last quarter. The firm’s loan for buying more Bitcoin in 2022, came under scrutiny as experts believe MicroStrategy could face a margin call on the $205 million it borrowed. Saylor has assuaged investor concerns and confirmed that the firm has more collateral and can deploy when needed, avoiding a margin call.
In a recent email, Saylor pointed out that Bitcoin price is still 72% higher than MicroStrategy’s first purchase in August 2020. Experts have pointed out that most of the firm’s Bitcoin purchases came later at much higher prices and there is no excuse for bad timing.
Taylor was quoted as saying, all good investors including Warren Buffett and John Bogle know that you should not worry about short-term market gyrations. Taylor said,
Any time horizon shorter than four years is likely to result in a great deal of frustration & uncertainty.
Analysts at InsideBitcoin noted that BTC/USD is likely to cross above the upper boundary of the channel and higher resistance is located at $23,000. However, RSI is moving sideways and Bitcoin price needs to sustain above support at $20,000 to sustain uptrend. Bitcoin price is likely to plummet to $18,000 and drop to the lower boundary of the channel.
BTC-USD price chartFull Article
Traders reversed their normal order of USD/CAD concerns for most of this week. Lower US Treasury rates and weak American data helped the Canadian dollar gain 1.0% overriding the normal negative correlation of falling oil and commodity prices.
Treasury yields in the US have retreated from their mid-month highs with the benchmark 10-year closing at 3.136% on Friday down 10 basis points on the week and 35 points from the June 14 top at 3.480%. The 2-year note shed 13 points from last Friday to finish at 3.063% and was off 23 points from its June 14 peak at 3.422%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continued to descend from its June 8 high of $121.21, falling 4.8% from Monday to Thursday’s close at $103.33.
Friday’s slight increase in Treasury yields, the 10-year added 4 basis points, usually a USD/CAD positive, was overwhelmed by a 3.1% rebound in WTI to $106.57 and the USD/CAD lost just over a figure on the day from 1.2994 to 1.2893.
On the week the US 10-year yield lost 10 basis points, WTI dropped 1.8% and the USD/CAD slipped 1.1% from 1.3038 to the above 1.2893.
Canadian Retail Sales at 0.9% in April were marginally stronger than the 0.8% forecast but up substantially from March’s 0.2% gain. The increase was a bit surprising given accelerating inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 7.7% overall in May from 6.8% prior and the core rate rose to 6.1% from 5.7%.
Testifying before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank needs to see clear proof that inflation is slowing before limiting rate increases. He admitted under questioning that higher rates could bring on a recession and may have limited effect on inflation, especially for food and energy prices.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman suggested in an interview with Reuters that a 75 basis point increase in July followed by 50 points at later meetings was the appropriate scenario. “I am committed to a policy that will bring real federal funds rate back into positive territory.”
With the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index at 4.9% in April and forecast to be 4.7% in May, that would place the final base rate more than 100 basis points above the 3.4% projected by the central bank at the end of this year and 200 points above the current upper target of 1.75%.
The US business outlook weakened in June with the S&P manufacturing PMI registering its lowest score since July 2020. Existing Home Sales, 90% of the US housing market, fell 3.4% in May bringing the decline since January to 16.6%. American consumer confidence slipped again in June as the Michigan Survey was revised to 50.
American and Canadian economic statistics reflect the same trends and tendencies and over the course of the lockdowns and recovery have offered no direction to the USD/CAD. Likewise the alternating rate hikes of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC) are nearly mirror images.
The BoC is next on July 13 and a 75 basis point hike is possible given the surprise in May’s CPI.
Canadian statistics are sparse next week with only April GDP on tap.
Energy prices have been the sole variable providing the loonie with additional heft.
In the US, Durable Goods in the US will repeat the weakness of Retail Sales and Conference Board Consumer Confidence that of the Michigan survey. The final edition of first quarter GDP is expected to be unchanged at -1.5%. Personal Income and Spending and the accompanying PCE inflation gauges will be the week’s highlight. Weakness in consumption and higher than forecast inflation will play into the recession scenario. Traders should note the Real Disposable Income and Spending figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that are issued with the PCE data for an accurate reading of income and consumption.
Markets have become increasingly concerned that the combination of aggressive Fed and BoC monetary policies and inflation will bring on a recession. The possibility has grown as some forward-looking data has weakened but the likelihood is that a recession would strike the US and Canadian economies simultaneously.
Energy prices are the potential difference as their variation affects the Canadian economy more than its southern neighbor.
Germany is attempting to reduce its dependency on Russian energy, though it is not clear what effect that might have on the global energy market. Russia is pumping and selling as much oil and gas as before the Ukraine invasion, albeit for less income.
If Germany, or the EU abandoned all Russian energy imports it could squeeze prices higher for non-Russian sources. Or, and probably more likely, the essentially fungible commodity would keep prices from rising much higher.
The outlook for the USD/CAD is range-bound between 1.2700 and 1.3000 with two caveats. First for oil. As has been true since the Ukraine invasion, oil volatility has a pronounced USD/CAD response.
Second is for US Treasury rates. Fed officials have repeatedly said rates will rise to combat inflation, doubling in the bank’s projection by the end of the year. Credit markets, however, will lower Treasury yields if a recession seems imminent, taking the USD/CAD with them.
The turn in the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) on Thursday bought the price line closer to the signal line than at any time in the last two weeks. At best this is a neutral signal, it is not yet a sell point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also shifted to neutral with the reversion back into the range of the last two months. Average True Range (ATR) is still relatively high but if the USD/CAD falls below 1.2850 volatility will decrease.Full Article
Solana price has room to rise before the bears attack again.
Solana price shows an increased momentum going into the third weekend of June. Still, a bull run is unconfirmed. The bulls have managed to recover 40% of lost gains since the June 12 low at $27.80. The rise in value comes with sparse volume, as most investors are unsure of the current market conditions.
Solana price currently trades at $40 as the bulls continue to hike upwards on the 9-hour chart. If the short-term rally is genuine, the bulls could rise to the $52 for an additional 40% gain. The Relative Strength Index shows unstable tug-of-war-like movement, which suggests an increase in volatility that short-term scalpers could enjoy in the coming weeks. Traders should also beware that Solana price has bearish confluence targets in the $20 region, as previously mentioned. Hence, if you are looking to join the continued uptrend move be sure to keep a tight stoploss and secure profits accordingly.
SOL/USDT 9-Hour Chart
From a macro perspective, $60 is the invalidation level to call a new bull run for the Solana price confidently. If the bulls manage to breach the $60 level, a $140 target will be back on the cards resulting in up to a 280% increase from the current Solana price.
Avalanche’s AVAX price could start moving violently towards $30. Traders should keep their eyes on the digital gaming token to partake in a short-term bull-run.
Avalanche’s AVAX price shows newfound interest as the bulls have managed to rally 35% since the June 11 lows at $13.71. Bears anticipating more sell-offs could find themselves on the wrong side of the trade as the crypto market is showing signs of a reversal in the future.
AVAX price currently trades at $19.44 as profit-taking at the psychological $20 level is expected. If the rally is genuine, the smart money could begin sending the Avalanche price towards $30 to breach previous resistant zones. The Relative Strength Index provides a bullish divergence between wave three and the short-lived wave five on the nine-hour chart. This subtle piece of evidence could be the only justification for a bullish surge in retrospect.
AVAX/USDT 9-Hour Chart
Invalidation of the bullish thesis is a breach below the June 11 low at $13.71, providing a 3-1 risk-to-reward ratio. If the bears manage to breach $13.71, expect a fall to $10, resulting in a 45% decrease from the current AVAX price.
The New Zealand dollar recorded solid gains vs. the greenback, snapping two days of consecutive losses, recovering from daily lows near 0.6266, piercing through the 0.6300 figure, and ending near the daily highs at around 0.6327. At 0.6312, the NZD/USD reflects Friday’s upbeat market mood, which underpinned risk-sensitive currencies in the FX space.
Risk appetite increased in the session as witnessed by Wall Street finishing with robust gains after plunging to bear market levels, meaning losses of 20% or more from all-time-highs. US recession fears abated on US economic data, showing that consumer inflation expectations lowered from a 14-year high. Nevertheless, Thursday’s US S&P Global PMIs printed that the economy is slowing down, coupled with inflation expectations taming, which denotes the Fed could keep hiking but not at a faster pace.
During the North American session, the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said US recession worries are overblown and commented that the US would be fine. He added that tightening policy will slow down the economy to a trend pace of growth and expects the need to move the FFR near 3.50%.
Late in the day, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the Fed doesn’t need to think about the endpoint of the balance sheet yet, and added that the central bank would communicate regarding that. Daly’s said that she does not see a recession.
NZD/USD traders should be aware of New Zealand’s holiday, suggesting that no economic data is available. Meanwhile, the US economic docket featured the UoM Consumer Sentiment on its final reading for June, which plunged to 50. US New Home Sales rose 10.7% in May to 0.696 million and beat expectations of 0.588 million
In the week ahead, the New Zealand economic docket will feature ANZ Business Confidence, ANZ Consumer Confidence, and Building Permits. On the US front, the calendar will unveil Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, Gross Domestic Product, and the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for May.
After hiking by 75 basis points instead of the 50 bps he long-ascribed to, Powell cited the jump in inflation expectations in the UMich consumer sentiment survey as a factor. Well, he might have waited until the final data was out, as the numbers were lowered.
The market jumped on that and the odds of just a 50 bps hike in July roughly doubled to 27%. That sentiment weighed on the US dollar and boosted stocks as well with some particularly large moves in the commodity currencies.
CAD was doubly boosted by a rebound in oil that left crude down just $2 on the week — a far cry from the mid-week crash. After touching 1.3000 in Asia, USD/CAD finished on the lows at 1.2880.
AUD/USD was similarly strong and found some breathing room above the double bottom 0.6833 in a climb to 0.6937.
The growing problem is the push-and-pull in bonds. The better tone on risk assets took 10-year yields from a low of 3.03% to 3.14%, with less worry about a recession starting to mean a shift back to worries about inflation. That’s a tenuous dynamic that leaves a narrow window for an extension of this price action.
The US dollar was broadly weak but made some progress against the yen.
Curiously, the pound was able to find few bids despite the positive risk tone. Some of that relates back to worries about growth in the eurozone. For its part, the euro managed to climb 30 pips on the session.
Have a great weekend.Full Article
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