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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD back under pressure near $1800
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD back under pressure near $1800

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD back under pressure near $1800

239504   June 30, 2022 23:56   FXStreet   Market News  

  • On a volatile session, gold reaffirms bearish bias.
  • Gold falls sharply even as US yields move lower.
  • XAU/USD testing $1805, below attention would turn to the YTD low at $1785.
  • Gold is back below 1810$, under pressure and looking vulnerable to the downside. The price hit earlier a one-month low at $1802 and then spiked to $1825. The recovery was short-lived as gold resume the decline falling below 1810$.

XAU/USD is testing the $1805 area, and a consolidation below would expose $1800. Below that area, a test of the year-to-date low at $1786 seems likely.

On the upside, if gold manages to remain above $1820 it could alleviate the bearish pressure. A key level is seen currently at $1831, a short-term downtrend line that if broken, should open the doors to the weekly high at $1841 and to $1848 (June 22 high).

Volatile session between lower yields and risk aversion

The demand for Treasuries rose amid risk aversion. The US 10-year yield dropped to 3.00% and the 30-year fell to 3.12%, the lowest level in weeks. The decline in yields supports gold but at the same time, risk aversion is pushing commodity prices to the downside and the dollar higher.

In Wall Street, the Dow Jones is falling 0.87% and the Nasdaq 1.15%, both indexes off lows. Crude oil tumbles 2.70%.

Technical levels

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USD/JPY retraces from weekly highs, and slips below 136.00 on safe-haven flows

USD/JPY retraces from weekly highs, and slips below 136.00 on safe-haven flows

239502   June 30, 2022 23:56   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Risk-off impulse dominates the last trading day of June, boosting safe-haven peers.
  • The USD/JPY falls from 137.00 below the 136.00 mark, weighted by the drop in US Treasury yields.
  • The US Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE came lower than the previous reading, signaling the effects of higher rates begin to feel.

The USD/JPY slides on Thursday, following a lower-than-expected inflation report, which could deter the US Federal Reserve from tightening at a faster pace amidst odds increasing of recession, keeping investors uneasy. At 135.85, the USD/JPY retreats from daily highs shy of 137.00, back below the 136.00 mark.

Negative sentiment and falling yields, a headwind for the USD/JPY

Risk aversion dominates the markets, as half/quarter/month-end flows bolstered the greenback. US equities remain heavy; the greenback rises shown by the US Dollar Index up by 0.04%, at 105.135, while US Treasury yields drop, led by the 10-year T-note rate at 3.00%, diving nine bps.

Besides that, fears of a recession as global growth stagnated, alongside high inflation, spurred a flight to safe-haven. Particularly in the USD/JPY, the yen remains bid, boosted by the fall in US Treasury yields, weighed by falling US inflation expectations, as illustrated by the five and 10-year break-even inflation rates, easing from YTD highs around 3.59% and 3.02% each, down to 2.59% and 2.36%, respectively.


Source: Tradingview/St. Louis FRED

In the meantime, US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), rose by 6.3% YoY, unchanged in May, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Meanwhile, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the core PCE, which excludes volatile items, grew 4.7%, YoY, lower than the 4.9% in April.

On the Japanese front, the docket revealed Industrial Production, which shrank faster than expected -1.3% MoM to -7.2%. Annually based, recovered some ground but stayed negatively at -2.8%, from a previous reading at -4.9%.

USD/JPY Key Technical Levels

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European equity close: Another bruising day

European equity close: Another bruising day

239500   June 30, 2022 23:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Italy FTSE MIB

It was another rough one in Europe with most markets now approaching (and the MIB breaking) the June lows.

  • Stoxx 600 -1.6%
  • UK FTSE 100 -1.9%
  • German DAX -1.7%
  • Italy MIB -2.4%
  • French CAC -2.0%
  • Spain IBEX -1.8%

There was a rally in the last hour of trade that kept it from being worse.

I suspect we’ll see buying into the close in the US today/tomorrow as well as the quarter-end shuffling ends.

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US dollar bid into the London fix

US dollar bid into the London fix

239498   June 30, 2022 23:02   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

There are some crosscurrents at the moment as equities bounce somewhat so the picture isn’t entirely clear but the US dollar is finding an extra gear into the London fix.

It’s quarter-end so there will be some large fixing flows this week and Citi models (which I published earlier this week) called for USD strength.

Some of that may slowly fade after the turn of the hour.

EURUSD intraday

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OPEC+ sticks to planned output hikes in August
OPEC+ sticks to planned output hikes in August

OPEC+ sticks to planned output hikes in August

239497   June 30, 2022 22:56   FXStreet   Market News  

Following its meeting on Thursday, OPEC+ announced on Thursday that it will stick to its plan of increasing oil output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as reported by Reuters. The group refrained from discussing the output strategy from September. 

Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the next meeting is planned to take place early August.

Market reaction

Crude oil prices continued to fall following this development. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $105.90, losing 3.4% on a daily basis. 

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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (74B) in June 24: Actual (82B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (74B) in June 24: Actual (82B)

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (74B) in June 24: Actual (82B)

239496   June 30, 2022 22:56   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD bounces off two-year low/ascending channel support
Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD bounces off two-year low/ascending channel support

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD bounces off two-year low/ascending channel support

239495   June 30, 2022 22:33   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Silver lost ground for the fourth straight day and dropped to a nearly two-year low on Thursday.
  • Spot prices managed to find some support near the lower end of a downward sloping channel.
  • The set-up still favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further depreciating move.

Silver witnessed selling for the fourth successive day on Thursday and dived to a nearly two-year low, around the $20.30 region during the early North American session.

The downward trajectory, however, stalled near the lower boundary of a downward sloping trend channel extending from the beginning of this month. The XAG/USD did attempt a minor recovery from the said support, though lacked any follow-through beyond the $20.70-$20.75 region.

Given the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, the descending channel supports prospects for further losses. The negative outlook is reinforced by bearish oscillators, which are still far from being in the oversold territory.

That said, bearish traders are likely to wait for a convincing break through the trend-channel support before placing fresh bets. The XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the $20.00 psychological mark and test the next relevant support near the $19.60-$19.55 area.

On the flip side, any meaningful bounce could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $21.00 mark. The said handle should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD towards the $21.50 supply zone.

The latter marks a confluence barrier, comprising the top end of the ascending channel and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. Sustained strength beyond would negate any near-term negative bias and pave the way for some meaningful near-term upside for the XAG/USD.

Silver 4-hour chart

fxsoriginal

Key levels to watch

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This is why Terra’s LUNA 2.0 price has zero chance of recovering

This is why Terra’s LUNA 2.0 price has zero chance of recovering

239493   June 30, 2022 22:29   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Terra price action is set to perform a full paring back of weekly gains.
  • LUNA price goes for a full squeeze on bulls.
  • Expect a break of $1.973 and a retest of the low of June 19.

Terra (LUNA) price is collapsing as the day unfolds, with price action dropping over 15% intraday. Along with that move, the last remaining bulls are getting kicked out of their positions and taking  massive losses to their portfolios. Expect an implosion of price action when the last line of defence at $1.937 gives way.

LUNA price could implode by 45%

Terra price dials 911 as the house is on fire, and it is every man for himself. As the rule of women and children first does not apply in financial markets, traders are jumping on every bid order they see to offload their positions. The sell-side seriously outweighs the buy-side, which can only be solved if price action walks lower to find a new equilibrium. 

Thus, LUNA needs to brace itself for a slide towards $1.9370 and, in the process, book a whopping 20% intraday loss. To make matters worse, that support level may not hold if more and more investors turn their back on markets and are not present to support price action. Expect, in that case, a total implosion of the buy-side that will see LUNA price dip towards $1.3494 around the 61.8% Fibonacci level and print a new low for June.

LUNA/USD daily chart

LUNA/USD daily chart

Besides a thousand hail marys to salvage price action, a push-back on dollar strength could also pull up price action in Terra and see some paring back of current losses. Should that continue into the weekend, LUNA price could possibly trade back to $2.6987 near the 23.6% Fibonacci level, suggesting a bullish reopening next week on Monday, as the summer starts and a second soft path in the price action could get underway.

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One of the most iconic American rappers is bullish on Ethereum despite recent price slump
One of the most iconic American rappers is bullish on Ethereum despite recent price slump

One of the most iconic American rappers is bullish on Ethereum despite recent price slump

239492   June 30, 2022 22:29   FXStreet   Market News  

  • NFT trades on the Ethereum network have declined 70% in USD value, dropping from $2.6 billion to $672 million within a month. 
  • Web3 enthusiast Snoop Dogg, alongside Champ Medici believes there are opportunities in Ethereum despite declining NFT trades. 
  • Analysts argue that Ethereum fundamentals point to increased downside risks with the next support level below $500. 

Snoop Dogg and his son Champ Medici are one of the most prominent celebrities in the Ethereum NFT ecosystem. While Ethereum is hit by a crypto bloodbath, Dogg argues that the bear market is weeding out all the people who are not supposed to be in the space.

Also read: Why crypto exchange dYdX abandoned Ethereum in ongoing bloodbath

Ethereum liquidity crunch pushes NFT skeptics out 

In the recent crypto market bloodbath, Ethereum price plummeted from its peak of $1,266 on June 26, 2022 to $1,035 at the time of writing. Based on data from Nansen, the drop in Ethereum price is accompanied by shrinking NFT trades. 

The total volume of Ethereum NFT trades declined by 55% over the past month. While in May 2022, NFT trades accounted for 1.3 million ETH, the number has shrunken to 584,000 ETH. In USD value, that is a 70% decline, from $2.6 billion in NFT sales to $672 million. 

Blue chip NFT projects like Bored Ape Yacht Club and Goblintown did not witness an increase in price, and there is an overall decline in digital art, collectible trades on the Ethereum blockchain. 

Yet, the average price of NFTs that belong to the top five collections on OpenSea, the largest peer-to-peer marketplace, has remained largely unchanged. This does not imply that NFT sales have declined, transactions are still being completed, just at a lower overall price. NFT enthusiasts are keen on free mints, like Goblintown, rather than collections with high floor prices. 

OpenSea noted sales of 1.478 million NFTs in May 2022, followed by 1.476 million in June 2022 and it is likely that more digital art and collectibles on the Ethereum blockchain will be sold in July, than the last two months.  

Snoop Dogg, a leading celebrity, popular in the Web3 ecosystem believes the crypto bloodbath has pushed skeptics out of the ecosystem. Dogg was quoted as saying,

I feel like this [crypto winter] weeded out all the people who weren’t supposed to be in the space and who were abusing the opportunities that were there.

The liquidity crunch has pushed key players in the Ethereum NFT space into a financial crunch, this separated skeptics from the NFT proponents. 

Record labels could soon venture in the Ethereum NFT ecosystem 

In early 2022, Snoop announced his plans to turn Death Row Records, a label acquired from MNRK Music Group into an NFT label. Soon after one of the NFTs from “Journey of the Dogg” sold at an auction for over $100,000. 

Snoop has amassed $17 million in NFTs under the alias Cozomo de’ Medici. He told CNBC in an interview, 

I know [NFTs] have a great opportunity to be big in music, because sooner or later the labels are going to have to come on in. They’re going to have to come on home and sit at the table and understand that catalogs and things they hold onto are better served on the blockchain than sitting in the catalog collecting cobwebs.

Champ Medici, Dogg’s son believes it’s not just labels that are venturing in the Ethereum NFT ecosystem,

It’s movie studios, it’s tech companies, it’s beverage companies … everybody’s rushing to Web3 and they see how big Dogg is in the space.

Next big move in Ethereum price, sub $900

@Murfski_, a swing trader and analyst evaluated the Ethereum price chart and noted that after sweeping the previous low at $1,000, Ethereum price could bounce back. yet the likelihood of recovery is low, and the analyst believes the next big move is set to occur sub $900

@Phoenix_Ash3s, a leading crypto analyst believes Ethereum price could recover if it sustains above $1,000

Analysts believe crypto risks have elevated, Ethereum could decline further

Analysts at Fairlead Strategies argued that the crypto market is still reeling from the bloodbath, and amid growing contagion risks, Ethereum price could plummet lower. The forced liquidation of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) has contributed to the uncertainty and increased selling pressure on the altcoin. 

Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, believes Ethereum’s fundamentals also point to increasing downside risks. The next support level for Ethereum price is below $500 if the current level fails to hold.  

In a note, Stockton said, 

Next support for Ether is near $490, a minor level based on the September 2020 peak, with more important support at approximately $363. Previous support (~$1733) is resistance but unlikely relevant … Like bitcoin, Ether is newly oversold from a long-term perspective, but a fairly recent bearish shift in long-term momentum supports an extended downtrend.

What Ethereum price needs to do to make comeback to $1,500

FXStreet analysts believe Ethereum price could recover to $1,500 despite the recent slump in price. Analysts have identified the condition for a bullish trend reversal in the largest altcoin’s price chart. For more information and key levels to watch out for, checkout this video:

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United States Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 56, below expectations (58) in June
United States Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 56, below expectations (58) in June

United States Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 56, below expectations (58) in June

239491   June 30, 2022 22:05   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.




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Brent Oil to remain elevated in the near-term before dipping below $95 in 2023 – Danske Bank
Brent Oil to remain elevated in the near-term before dipping below $95 in 2023 – Danske Bank

Brent Oil to remain elevated in the near-term before dipping below $95 in 2023 – Danske Bank

239490   June 30, 2022 22:05   FXStreet   Market News  

Economists at Danske Bank expect Brent Oil prices to ease moderately towards 2023. However, the black gold is set to remain elevated in the near-term.

Tight supply supports spot despite rising growth risks

“While looming demand slowdown points towards easing commodity prices in 2023, the limited spare capacity in global markets could support the current steep backwardation and high spot prices in the near-term.”

“We continue to forecast Brent Oil at $120/bbl in Q3, $100/bbl in Q4 and $95/bbl in 2023.”

“Potential outcome space remains very wide amid mixed drivers affecting both global demand and supply outlooks.”

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ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: High inflation component steal the show, boost dollar

ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: High inflation component steal the show, boost dollar

239487   June 30, 2022 22:02   FXStreet   Market News  

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to show slower growth in June.
  • The inflation component is critical and low expectations may lead to an upside surprise. 
  • Risk-aversion ahead of the weekend could compound dollar strength.

First Nonfarm Payrolls hint – that is how I used to describe the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Not this time. While the indicator also provides an insight into the jobs report, the focus this time will undoubtedly be on inflation – the other mandate of the Federal Reserve, and currently the overriding priority. 

The headline Manufacturing PMI is set to decline from 56.1 point in May to 55 in June, reflecting slower growth and lower expectations from businesses in the industrial sector. Nevertheless, any score above 50 still represents expansion. The dollar would react negatively to the headline only if it tumbles below that 50-point threshold:

Stable but eroding growth in the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI:

Source: FXStreet

The more important data point is Prices Paid, which is a snapshot of purchasing managers’ inflation expectations. The economic calendar is pointing to a slide from 82.2 to 80.5 points. However, with rising prices being on everybody’s minds – television sets and gas stations serving as billboards – there is room for an upside swing rather than a downside one.

Moreover, the most recent Consumer Confidence survey by the Conference Board showed an uptick in one-year inflation expectations, from 7.5% to 8%. 

Perhaps the most convincing argument I have for the upside is found by examining recent publications. It seems that economists adapt themselves to recent surprises – either expecting a high Prices Paid figure when the data is elevated in the previous month, or projecting a weak number after a miss. 

This time, a relatively softer figure is on the cards, but economists might have exaggerated expectations to the downside.

Source: FXStreet

High inflation expectations in the manufacturing sector may lead markets to expect a similar outcome in the services sector PMI released next week. Moreover, the central bank is watching as well. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has mentioned forward-looking inflation expectations figures as critical to his decision-making process. 

A higher Prices Paid figure means a stronger dollar in anticipation of a faster increase in interest rates. 

Another reason to expect the greenback to gain ground is the general trend in its favor, boosted by Powell, who said it would be a bigger mistake to allow prices to rise quickly and his hint that he would accept a recession. 

Final thoughts

Inflation, not employment, is what matters in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Any small beat would extend the uptrend in the dollar, especially as the weekend draws near and end-of-month flows have been cleared.

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