- Prior was -15.0
- Services revenue index +6.6 vs +4.9 prior
Shiba Inu price surprisingly failed to take the bullish path higher, defying expectations of a rally. There is now a possibility of trend reversal which could lead to corrections down the line, making it a good opportunity for traders to short the asset.
Shiba Inu price responded to bearish divergence with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator by breaking below critical support at $0.00001182 on February 24. The breakdown has resulted in SHIB trading at $0.00001242 at the time of writing.
The Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) is highlighting an active downtrend by tracing its dots above rather than below the price. To add to that, the RSI is also slipping below the neutral line at 50.0 into the bearish zone.
If the indicator lingers in this zone for too long, the corrections could lead to SHIB possibly slipping below the $0.00001182 critical support.
In such a case, traders looking to short the altcoin should expect a crash of 21% A decline to $0.00000968 would bring Shiba Inu price to a month-and-a-half low.
SHIB/USD 1-day chart
If the cryptocurrency manages to bounce off the critical support, however, and breach the immediate resistance at $0.00001395, things might turn around.
Flipping this level into support would give SHIB the boost it needs to rally to $0.00001695, which marks a critical resistance level. A daily candlestick close above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis and mark a six-month price high.Full Article
Polkadot (DOT) price is nearing a very good entry opportunity for traders and investors who believe in an uptrend. Looking from a purely technical point of view, and leaving all external forces aside, DOT is nearing that crucial, pivotal level as bulls are set to catch the price action. Expect a quick turnaround higher once the pivotal level has been hit with $8 on the docket in the coming weeks.
Polkadot price has bulls gearing up and standing ready for the collision course DOT is on toward a vital support level. That level can be found at $6.23, where not only a historic pivotal level can be found. Additionally, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is nearby and has recently crossed the 200-day SMA in a Golden Cross pattern.
DOT, unfortunately, is not yet in that perfect Golden Cross as the 200-day SMA is still tied to the downside. That means that $6.23 could see some very bearish pressure, and it is up to the bulls to defend it. Once price action bounces, expect to see confirmation with a leg higher and $8, a 28% gain, as the price target for the coming weeks.
DOT/USD daily chart
As mentioned, bears could see their chance here to try and break the support because the Golden Cross is not confirmed. Should DOT slip below $6.23 and even trade lower than the 200-day SMA, some further weakness could be at hand as bulls will track back on entering. That could give the bears a free ride lower toward at least $5.80 or even $4.40 in a worst case scenario.Full Article
There is scope for near-term softness on the policy divergence that’s underway between the Fed and BoC, but a broad weakening trend in the USD by mid-year will give CAD a lift, economists at CIBC Capital Markets report.
“The Loonie could stay under a bit of pressure in the near term with risks of a move towards 1.37, as markets focus on the divergence in policy that is underway between the Fed, which is still expected to take rates a quarter point higher at least two more times, and the BoC that is currently on hold.”
“By June, we still expect to see enough evidence of a cooling in US growth and inflation to have markets looking past the end of a US tightening cycle, a development that should put the US Dollar on the defensive.”
“We see USD/CAD ending the year at 1.31.”
“With global growth likely to receive a lift as central banks outside of North America also start to cut policy rates towards neutral, and higher commodity prices benefitting Canada’s export sector, look for USD/CAD to reach 1.28 in 2024.”Full Article
Economists at Wells Fargo expect the GBP/USD pair to move gradually higher toward 1.22 by the end of the year.
“Should inflation continue to show a pronounced declaration, and activity and survey data show renewed softening, we expect the BoE to deliver a final 25 bps rate to 4.25% in March and to begin cutting interest rates as early as Q4 of this year. Our forecast policy rate peak is well below the level implied by current market pricing.”
“The less aggressive approach we envisage from the BoE is an important reason we expect that, over the medium-term, the Pound will be an underperformer against a broadly soft USD, targeting a GBP/USD exchange rate of just 1.2200 by the end of this year and 1.2400 by mid-2024.”Full Article
After dismal economic data reported from Canada, the USD/CAD advances toward the 1.3600 figure, while the US Dollar (USD) registers some losses. In addition, market sentiment shifted sour as US equities opened in the red. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD exchanges hands at around 1.3610.
Statistics Canada revealed the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4, which was expected at 2.9% QoQ, though missed estimates and came flat at 0%. According to the agency, inventory accumulations and declines in business investment, mainly machinery, and equipment were the reasons for weaker growth in Q4.
Even though the reading is negative, it takes the pressure off the Bank of Canada (BoC). The BoC announced at its last monetary policy meeting that it would pause rate hikes. Consequently, further USD/CAD strength is warranted, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue its tightening cycle with speculation around the financial markets that the Fed could go as high as 6%, according to Bank of America (BofA) Global Research.
The USD/CAD jumped after the data release and printed a daily high of 1.3609. Nevertheless, the dust had settled, and the major retraced toward the 1.3590s area.
On the US front, monthly house prices dropped in December by 0.1% MoM, in data published by the US Federal Housing Finance Agency showed on Tuesday. At the same time, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index arrived at 4.6% YoY in December, down from 6.8% in November and lower than analysts’ estimate of 6.1%.
The USD/CAD daily chart portrays the pair as upward biased after bottoming around 1.3200. After falling to YTD lows at 1.3262, the USD/CAD has prolonged its gains and has broken above crucial resistance areas, like the 20, 50, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Therefore, interest rate differentials and technical momentum could pave the way for further upside.
The USD/CAD next resistance would be the daily high at 1.3609. A breach of the latter will expose the YTD high at 1.3685, ahead of 1.3700, followed by the November 3 swing high at 1.3808.
Gold followed the seasonal playbook with great success this year as that trend continues to creep earlier in December and fading early in February. Of course, fundamentals were a huge part as well with gold stumbling on a more-hawkish path for the Fed and higher bond yields.
What’s notable about gold lately though is that it’s holding in on bad days and showing some strength on good ones. Today, it’s trying to carve out an outside bullish day, which is something to watch. It would need to close above $1820 to do it and $1827 (Friday’s high) to really emphasize it. It’s currently trading at $1821.
What I’m wondering about is how much sovereign demand is a factor at the moment. We know that it’s picked up since Q3 2022 and it makes sense that China and Russia would be adding to reserves. Other countries unfriendly with the US may also be pivoting back to gold after seeing Russian reserves confiscated. That said, those flows are competing against bond yields that are suddenly much more attractive then they were for all of the 2010s.
Technically, I don’t see anything here to love and the seasonals in March are poor (worst month) but bulls shouldn’t write off precious metals because if we get more readings like today’s soft consumer confidence, it will be ready for another challenge of $2000.Full Article
Hopes of a swift further decline in the inflation rate have received a noticeable damper at the beginning of 2023. Accordingly, the Fed will probably raise interest rates several more times, economists at Commerzbank report.
“Our review of various core measures suggests that the inflation trend is probably still above 4%, way above the Fed’s 2% target.”
“The Fed will hope that the effects of rate hikes have not yet shown up because of the usual lags in their impact. This will change and price pressures will then ease noticeably as the year progresses. If this does not happen, the Fed has obviously not cooled demand sufficiently. Significantly more rate hikes than previously expected (our forecast: three further hikes by June of 25 basis points each to 5.50% for the upper end of the target range) would then be likely.”Full Article
Consumer sentiment in the US deteriorated modestly in February with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declining to 102.9 from 106 in January (revised from 107.1). This reading came in below the Reuters estimate of 108.5.
Further details of the publication revealed that the Jobs Hard-to-Get Index edged lower to 10.5 from 11.1 and the one-year consumer inflation rate expectations declined to 6.3% from 6.7% in December.
The US Dollar Index stays on the back foot after this data and was last seen losing 0.17% on the day at 104.46.Full Article
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6 month of forward expectations
From the Richmond Fed: