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EUR/USD Price Analysis: The pair could move into the abyss with the next major support just under 1.15
EUR/USD Price Analysis: The pair could move into the abyss with the next major support just under 1.15

EUR/USD Price Analysis: The pair could move into the abyss with the next major support just under 1.15

73973   September 23, 2020 00:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • EUR/USD is 0.55% lower on Tuesday as the tough start to the week continues.
  • There is a big level near 1.15 where a Fib retracement, support level and a round number meet.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD looks like it may take a dive soon as the price printed below an important level. The consolidation low is marked on the chart in black and stands at 1.1694 and the price dipped just under the zone to hit a low of 1.1690. 

This means a lower low and lower high wave have been created on the daily chart. Those traders that follow Dow theory know that this could spell trouble. It would be a better confirmation if the price closed below the level on the daily chart but we will have to wait and see if that is the case. 

Looking at some of the other technical targets, the Fibonacci retracement and extension throw up a significant level at 1.1487. This is where the 38.2% and 261.8% meet. Also close by at the red line is a level which has been used as both support and resistance in the past. 

The indicators are looking pretty bearish too. The Relative Strength Index is under 50 and still has some room before it hits the oversold area. The MACD histogram is in the red but the signal lines have not yet crossed the mid-point. 

Overall, this looks like it could be a trend change. Once again a candle close below the aforementioned support zone at 1.1690 would go some way to confirm this. For now downside targets are in play unless there is another strong rejection later on. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Additional levels

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Mnuchin says China on track to fulfill agricultural purchase pledge
Mnuchin says China on track to fulfill agricultural purchase pledge

Mnuchin says China on track to fulfill agricultural purchase pledge

73972   September 23, 2020 00:21   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  


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EuropeFX now supporting PayPal deposits

EuropeFX now supporting PayPal deposits

73970   September 23, 2020 00:12   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

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Dash Price Prediction: DASH defends crucial support level and shows buy signals
Dash Price Prediction: DASH defends crucial support level and shows buy signals

Dash Price Prediction: DASH defends crucial support level and shows buy signals

73969   September 23, 2020 00:12   FXStreet   Market News  

  • DASH is currently trading at $68.36 after defending a critical support level at $66.5. 
  • The TD Sequential indicator is showing several buy signals on various time-frames.

DASH has lost 36% of its value since its peak on August 6 at $104.8. The digital asset is currently trying to bounce back up with the help of various indicators which are showing a shift in momentum for the bulls.

DASH/USD daily chart

dash price

The TD sequential indicator has presented a buy signal on the daily chart at around $68 right after DASH defended a critical support level at $66.5 formed on May 11 and defended on several occasions through June and September. 

DASH IOMAP Chart

dash price

The In/Out of the Money Around Price indicator by IntoTheBlock shows a good amount of support at $68 and $66.55, right where the trendline is formed. The IOMAP chart basically identifies how many DASH coins were bought at a specific price.

DASH/USD 12-hour chart

dash price

Similarly, on the 12-hour chart, the TD indicator has presented a buy signal just hours ago while the RSI was close to creating a bullish divergence but the price of DASH didn’t create lower lows but rather defended the same price point at $66.5. 

DASH IOMAP Chart

dash price

Although the IOMAP chart confirms that there are a lot of buyers at $66.5 it also shows stiff resistance ahead at $69, $70, and most notably at $72 with a total volume of 796,000 DASH. For comparison, the $66.5 support level only has around 147,000 DASH in volume which means there are five times more buyers at $72.

Investors need to be on alert for a bearish breakout of $66.5 as this would most likely push DASH to lower lows close to $60. On the other hand, if both TD buy signals are correct, we could see the digital asset climb above $70 to test the massive resistance level at $72.

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Powell speech: Banking system has held up well so far
Powell speech: Banking system has held up well so far

Powell speech: Banking system has held up well so far

73968   September 22, 2020 23:45   FXStreet   Market News  

While testifying testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, said there was very little demand for loans below $1 million in the Main Street Lending Program.

Additional takeaways

“Proceeding with a lower loan amount might require a different program from Main Street.”

“Smaller loans would be more in line with the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans that can be forgiven.”

“Question for how to reopen are for state and local elected officials.”

“Have relaxed a number of banking regulations temporarily and are open to do more of that.”

“Stress tests themselves always err on the side of safety.”

“No plans to change banks living will review schedule.”

“So far, banking system has held up well.”

“Smaller banks may bear a larger burden here, greater exposure to things like real estate.”

“Not seeing demand for very, very small loans.”

“Lending at the small end involves a lot of personal guarantees, would have to start from scratch to build that capability.”

Market reaction

The greenback preserves its strength against its rivals in the American trading hours. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was up 0.52% on a daily basis at 94.03.

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US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Trump would support additional PPP money
US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Trump would support additional PPP money

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Trump would support additional PPP money

73967   September 22, 2020 23:45   FXStreet   Market News  

During his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) could be revisited and added that assistance was also needed for families with kids.

Additional takeaways

“Smaller loans would be more in line with PPP loans that can be forgiven.”

“Next package should be more targeted.”

“PPP could be revisited, assistance also needed for families with kids.”

“We struck the right balance on airlines package.”

“Agreed to reallocate $200 billion from Fed programs to other program with congressional backing.”

“US President Donald Trump would support additional PPP money.”

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index preserves its bullish momentum and was last seen gaining 0.5% on the day at 94.03.

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Bitcoin bears wake up in September, and here’s why
Bitcoin bears wake up in September, and here’s why

Bitcoin bears wake up in September, and here’s why

73966   September 22, 2020 23:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • What is the September effect, and why it hurts?
  • Statistically, the September sell-off is yet to be confirmed.
  • Global market conditions may cause selling pressure.
  • The current technical picture confirms the bearish potential of the month.

Sell in May and go away, they say on Wall Street where some stocks have seasonal fluctuations and tend to underperform from May till October. In the cryptocurrency market, ill fame goes to September, which is considered to be always red.

However, let’s have a closer look at the charts to see if there is such a thing as September’s effect on the cryptocurrency markets and how come this month got its bearish reputation. 

The charts have a story to tell

Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving inside the range limited by $12,000 and 9,800 in September. While the month is not over yet, the price of the pioneer digital asset has lost over 10% in the last three weeks. The price has lost all August gains and returned to the range that was dominant for most of the summer. 

Bitcoin’s price momentum

Source: Tradingview

As the chart above shows, in three instances out of five from 2015, Bitcoin lost ground in September. (We do not take September 2020 into account as it is not finished yet.) 

Also, note that in 2018 the actual sharp sell-off started in October after a mostly range-bound September. The bearish candle of September 2017 broke a long streak of green bars, while in 2019, it was a part of a long-term decline the peak reached in June. In other words, there is no crystalized trend as of yet, that might be used as an argument for the long-term price expectations. 

According to the data compiled by Arcane research, the leading digital coin decreased 9%, 6%, and 14% in September from 2017 to 2019; however, statistically, it is not enough to make clear-cut conclusions about Bitcoin’s seasonality. On the other hand, the data from 2015 and 2016 may be less relevant due to the much lower Bitcoin’s popularity and small trading volumes.

Where does this September bear tale come from?

Now let’s move to the fundamental aspect of the theory. Three factors may contribute to Bitcoin’s decline in September. First, people may tend to cash out from their cryptocurrency holdings to finance their post-summer needs. Also, the first autumn month often coincides with a new school year. Moreover, it is the last month of the fiscal year in the US that may lead to additional tax expenses. 

Second, on the financial markets, September marks the end of the summer lull. Increased volatility on the global markets may take its toll on digital assets that tend to behave like risky assets and decline in periods of high turbulence and uncertainty. 

Meanwhile, September 2020 sell-off is intensified by post-pandemic effects. As Arcane research shows, the stock market was down across the board due to economic slowdown. Bitcoin performed even better than the indices. 

Monthly Performance of Market Capitalization Weighted Indexes

Source: Arcane Research

This time won’t be different

From the technical perspective, if bulls don’t launch a massive counterstrike in the nearest week, September 2020 will reinforce the September effect theory. As we reported earlier this month, the experts from the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken pointed out that September may become the worst month of the year for BTC and result in a significant sell-off towards $9,000 by the end of the month.

Our analysis confirmed this view that implies a deeper sell-off towards $9,000 before another strong bullish wave

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Coronavirus update UK: 4,926 new coronavirus infections confirmed on Tuesday
Coronavirus update UK: 4,926 new coronavirus infections confirmed on Tuesday

Coronavirus update UK: 4,926 new coronavirus infections confirmed on Tuesday

73965   September 22, 2020 23:26   FXStreet   Market News  

There were 4,926 new confirmed coronavirus infections in the UK as of Tuesday morning, the UK government data showed, per Reuters. This reading followed Monday’s increase of 4,368.

Further details of the daily report revealed that there were 37 coronavirus-related fatalities on Tuesday, biggest one-day increase since mid-July.

Earlier in the day, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced new restriction measures to limit the spread of infection.

Market reaction

The British pound struggles to find demand after these figures. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was down 0.63% on a daily basis at 1.2733.

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Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD drops back to the $1,900 area as US dollar strengthens
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD drops back to the $1,900 area as US dollar strengthens

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD drops back to the $1,900 area as US dollar strengthens

73964   September 22, 2020 23:26   FXStreet   Market News  

  • Metals remain under pressure as the investors remain cautious.
  • XAUD/USD holds onto recent losses, recover capped by $1,920.

Metals are falling on Tuesday for the second day in a row but so far, they have been able to hold above weekly lows. XAU/USD found resistance at $1,920/oz and pulled back to the $1,900 area.

XAU/USD is facing an increasing bearish intraday pressure as the US dollar gains momentum. The DXY is at two-month highs above 94.00 as the greenback resumes the rally across the board.

Equity prices in Wall Street are starting to turn lower. The Dow Jones is now negative, falling 0.55% while the S&P 500 drops 0.25%. The risk aversion environment continues to weigh on metals and keeps boosting the US dollar.

Economic data from the US (Existing Home Sales and Richmond Fed) was mostly ignored by market participants. Fed’s Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are exposing at the House Financial Services Committee, regarding the response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Levels to watch

Currently, XAU/USD is hovering around $1,900. The immediate support is seen at $1,880 (Sept 21 low) followed by $1,860 (Aug low). A break of the last one would likely clear the way to more losses. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at $1,920 (Sept 22 high) and then at $1,935. A recovery above $1,960 would remove the negative bias.

More levels

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UK reports 4926 new COVID cases vs 4368 yesterday

UK reports 4926 new COVID cases vs 4368 yesterday

73962   September 22, 2020 23:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

That’s the highest since May 1

UK covid cases

Nearly 5000 new cases today aren’t shown on this chart but you can see the path of cases and it’s not moving in the right direction. New restrictions are coming and that’s one of the reasons that cable just hit a new session low.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus

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US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Working with Congress toward a phase-4 relief package
US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Working with Congress toward a phase-4 relief package

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Working with Congress toward a phase-4 relief package

73960   September 22, 2020 23:12   FXStreet   Market News  

During his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said they continue to work with Congress toward a phase-four coronavirus relief package.

“I believe a targeted package is still needed,” Mnuchin added and noted that he sees tremendous growth in the third quarter led by strong retail sales, housing activity and manufacturing growth.

Commenting on the Main Street Lending Program, Mnuchin acknowledged that they are expecting some losses on that facility and said that they are working with the Federal Reserve to improve the program.

Market reaction

The market mood remains cautious following these comments. As of writing, the S&P 500 Index was down 0.2% on the day at 3,275.

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RBNZ Preview: Dovish stance to down the kiwi
RBNZ Preview: Dovish stance to down the kiwi

RBNZ Preview: Dovish stance to down the kiwi

73959   September 22, 2020 23:12   FXStreet   Market News  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to leave policy steady at its September meeting. Dovish forward guidance could weigh on the kiwi but dollar’s mood is set to dominate, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. 

More – Reserve Bank of New Zealand Preview: Six major banks expectations

Key quotes

“With the coronavirus restrictions lifted for most of New Zealand (NZ), lower unemployment rate forecast and less-severe-than expected economic slump, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at a record low of 0.25% for the fourth straight month in September.”

“The strong fundamentals could prompt the RBNZ to stand pat on its monetary policy settings on Wednesday but Governor Adrian Orr and company could reinforce the dovish stance amid looming concerns over the longer-term economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.”

“Any hints on the adoption of the negative interest rates as a policy option and/or verbal intervention could exacerbate the pain in NZD/USD.”

“The risk tone and the resultant sentiment around the US dollar could likely influence the NZD/USD reaction to the RBNZ’s decision. Although the bias appears to the downside amid an expected dovish forward guidance.”

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